Marist College Institute for Public Opinion

Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Guarded Optimism about NYS Economy Remains

*** Complete Tables for Poll Appended *** EMBARGOED UNTIL 8 P.M. on Wednesday, April 18, 2012 Contact: Lee M. Miringoff Barbara L. Carvalho Mary E. Azzoli

Marist College
845.575.5050 This NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Reports: Has the New York State economy turned the economic corner? A slim majority of registered voters in New York -- 51% -- believe the worst of the states economic conditions are over. 44% say the worst is still to come, and 5% are unsure. There has been little change on this question since NY1/YNN-Marists January survey when 52% of voters reported the worst of New Yorks tough economic times were behind us, 44% thought there was more bad economic news ahead, and 5% were unsure. Although New Yorkers are somewhat optimistic about the economy, their faith in the recovery remains fragile, says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. When it comes to the state of New Yorks economy, a plurality of voters report its steady. Nearly half -- 49% -- believe the economy is about the same as it has been. More than one in four -- 27% -- says it is getting better while 23% think it is getting worse. Here, too, similar proportions shared these views in January. At that time, the same proportion -- 49% -- said the New York economy was status quo, 26% reported it was improving, and 25% believed it was getting worse. Is New York in a recession? About two-thirds of voters -- 67% -- think so while 30% believe the recession is over. Three percent are unsure. When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in January, 72% of voters believed New York to be in a recession while 26% did not. Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Steady State for Family Finances, Says Majority When it comes to their personal family finances, a majority of New York State voters expect little change in the next year. 53% believe their personal financial picture will remain about the same while 31% think it will get better. 16% report it will get worse. These proportions are little changed from January when 55% expected their financial situation to stay the course. 30% thought an improvement was on the horizon while 15% anticipated their family finances would get worse. More Than Seven in Ten New Yorkers Support Increasing the Minimum Wage 72% of adults in New York State believe raising the minimum wage is a good idea because it adds to income during difficult times. 25%, however, say it is a bad idea because in difficult times, small businesses will hire fewer people who need jobs. Three percent are unsure. These proportions are nearly identical to those reported in NY1/YNN-Marists January survey. At that time, 69% thought increasing the minimum wage was a good idea while 27% believed it was a bad idea. Four percent, then, were unsure.

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How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample: NY1/YNN-Marist New York State Poll of 760 Adults This survey of 760 New York State adults was conducted April 10th through 12th, 2012. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in New York State were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each county was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 3.5 percentage points. There are 632 registered voters. The sample of registered voters was adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 4.0 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Nature of the Sample: New York State

Nature of the Sample - Ne w York State NYS Adults Col % NYS Adults NYS Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Other Support T ea Party Yes No Unsure Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Region New York City Suburbs Upstate Income Less $50,000 $50,000 to just under $100,000 $100,000 or more Income Education Age Age Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Race White African American Latino Other Race Gender Evangelical Christians Interview T ype Landline Cell Phone White Non White Men Women 100% 83% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 42% 21% 37% 46% 29% 25% 46% 54% 58% 42% 48% 52% 19% 29% 25% 27% 64% 14% 17% 6% 64% 36% 48% 52% 14% 76% 24% 100% 45% 27% 27% 2% 19% 74% 7% 28% 38% 35% 30% 25% 46% 43% 29% 28% 43% 57% 55% 45% 41% 59% 13% 28% 27% 32% 70% 11% 15% 5% 70% 30% 49% 51% 13% 76% 24% NYS Registered Voters Col %

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll NYS Adults: Interviews conducted April 10th through 12th, 2012, N=760 MOE +/- 3.5 percentage points. NYS Registered Voters: N=632 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. T otals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYS Registered Voters When thinking about the New York State economy, which statement comes closer to your view: The worst is yet to The worst is behind come us Unsure Row % Row % Row % NYS Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Region New York City Suburbs Upstate Income Less $50,000 $50,000 to just under $100,000 $100,000 or more Income Education Age Age Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Race Gender Interview Type White Non White Men Women Landline Cell Phone 44% 35% 56% 49% 35% 39% 57% 45% 35% 49% 54% 38% 39% 54% 38% 50% 36% 49% 40% 47% 50% 48% 34% 40% 53% 45% 44% 43% 49% 51% 61% 40% 47% 62% 57% 38% 49% 63% 47% 42% 57% 58% 42% 58% 44% 60% 48% 54% 52% 46% 48% 59% 55% 45% 51% 52% 52% 50% 5% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 6% 7% 2% 5% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 6% 1% 4% 3% 8% 6% 3% 5% 5% 5% 2%

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll NYS Registered Voters: Interviews conducted April 10th through 12th, 2012, N=632 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYS Registered Voters When thinking about the New York State economy, which statement comes closer to your view: T he worst is yet T he worst is Unsure to come behind us Row % April 2012 January 2012 November 2011 May 2011 February 2011 44% 44% 54% 53% 47% Row % 51% 52% 42% 44% 49% Row % 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%

Marist Poll New York Registered Voters

NYS Registered Voters Right now, do you think the New York State economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Staying about the Getting better Getting worse same Row % Row % Row % NYS Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Region New York City Suburbs Upstate Income Less $50,000 $50,000 to just under $100,000 $100,000 or more Income Education Age Age Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Race Gender Interview Type White Non White Men Women Landline Cell Phone 27% 37% 15% 22% 36% 32% 16% 29% 35% 22% 22% 29% 32% 22% 30% 23% 33% 23% 31% 22% 24% 26% 35% 20% 8% 30% 25% 28% 24% 23% 18% 33% 23% 14% 20% 34% 21% 21% 27% 30% 21% 20% 30% 20% 26% 20% 25% 22% 16% 29% 24% 21% 15% 8% 23% 24% 23% 24% 49% 45% 52% 55% 50% 48% 50% 50% 44% 51% 49% 49% 49% 49% 49% 51% 48% 52% 47% 62% 47% 50% 44% 35% 14% 48% 51% 48% 52%

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll NYS Registered Voters: Interviews conducted April 10th through 12th, 2012, N=632 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Registered Voters Right now, do you think the New York State economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Staying Getting Getting about the Date better worse same April 2012 January 2012 November 2011 May 2011 February 2011 September 28, 2010 May 12, 2010 April 8, 2010 February 2, 2010 November 24, 2009 September 14, 2009 July 9, 2009 27% 26% 13% 16% 19% 12% 15% 12% 11% 15% 19% 8% 23% 25% 36% 37% 31% 46% 48% 54% 49% 39% 29% 46% 49% 49% 51% 47% 50% 42% 37% 34% 40% 46% 52% 46%

Marist Poll New York Registered Voters

NYS Registered Voters Do you think that New York State is currently in a recession, or not? Yes No Unsure Row % Row % Row % NYS Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Region New York City Suburbs Upstate Income Less $50,000 $50,000 to just under $100,000 $100,000 or more Income Education Age Age Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Race Gender Interview Type White Non White Men Women Landline Cell Phone 67% 59% 74% 76% 60% 69% 73% 66% 61% 72% 68% 62% 68% 68% 65% 70% 65% 71% 64% 68% 73% 70% 59% 67% 66% 65% 69% 68% 66% 30% 37% 25% 22% 37% 29% 24% 32% 34% 26% 29% 36% 31% 29% 33% 27% 32% 27% 33% 29% 25% 29% 36% 29% 32% 32% 28% 29% 32% 3% 5% 0% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 2% 4% 2% 1% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 5% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 2%

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll NYS Registered Voters: Interviews conducted April 10th through 12th, 2012, N=632 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

NYS Registered Voters In the coming year, do you expect your personal family finances to get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better Row % NYS Registered Voters Party Registration Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Region New York City Suburbs Upstate Income Less $50,000 $50,000 to just under $100,000 $100,000 or more Income Education Age Age Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Race Gender Interview Type White Non White Men Women Landline Cell Phone 31% 42% 21% 24% 36% 28% 30% 43% 34% 21% 35% 36% 24% 35% 30% 32% 28% 45% 22% 48% 43% 31% 14% 21% 54% 32% 30% 29% 38% Get worse Row % 16% 11% 23% 18% 8% 15% 21% 11% 15% 19% 19% 13% 12% 19% 13% 17% 14% 11% 20% 11% 11% 24% 17% 20% 5% 17% 15% 17% 14% Stay about the same Row % 53% 48% 55% 58% 56% 57% 49% 46% 50% 60% 46% 51% 63% 46% 57% 50% 58% 45% 59% 41% 46% 45% 70% 59% 40% 51% 56% 55% 48%

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll NYS Registered Voters: Interviews conducted April 10th through 12th, 2012, N=632 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Registered Voters In the coming year, do you expect your personal family finances to get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Stay about Date Get better Get worse the same April 2012 January 2012 November 2011 May 2011 February 2011 September 28, 2010 May 12, 2010 April 8, 2010 February 2, 2010 November 24, 2010 September 14, 2010 July 9, 2009 31% 30% 23% 31% 27% 26% 27% 22% 26% 24% 27% 20% 16% 15% 22% 22% 19% 16% 19% 19% 18% 20% 18% 25% 53% 55% 55% 47% 54% 58% 54% 59% 56% 56% 55% 55%

Marist Poll New York Registered Voters

NYS Adults Is raising the minimum wage in New York State: A good idea because A bad idea because in difficult times it adds money to people's income small businesses will hire fewer people during difficult who need jobs times Row % Row % NYS Adults NYS Registered Voters Party Registration^ Democrat Republican Non-enrolled Political Ideology^ Liberal Moderate Conservative Region New York City Suburbs Upstate Income Less $50,000 $50,000 to just under $100,000 $100,000 or more Income Education Age Age Less than $50,000 $50,000 or more Not college graduate College graduate Under 45 45 or older 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older Race Gender Interview Type White Non White Men Women Landline Cell Phone 72% 71% 83% 59% 65% 85% 74% 57% 74% 73% 68% 75% 72% 70% 75% 71% 72% 70% 75% 69% 70% 78% 71% 67% 69% 77% 67% 75% 72% 69% 25% 26% 14% 39% 33% 14% 24% 40% 22% 25% 29% 22% 27% 27% 22% 27% 24% 28% 23% 27% 28% 20% 26% 27% 28% 22% 30% 21% 25% 27%

Unsure Row % 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 5% 4% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4%

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll NYS Registered Voters: Interviews conducted April 10th through 12th, 2012, N=760 MOE +/- 3.5 percentage points. ^NYS Registered Voters: N=632 MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.