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Andre Kaspura
THE Engineering Profession: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 ISBN 978 0 85825 894 5 Author: Andre Kaspura Institution of Engineers Australia 2011 All rights reserved. Other than brief extracts, no part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without the written consent of the publisher. The report can be downloaded at www.engineersaustralia.org.au
National and International Policy Engineers Australia 11 National Circuit, Barton ACT 2600 Tel: 02 6270 6555 Email: policy@engineersaustralia.org.au www.engineersaustralia.org.au
CONTENTS
Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1. Purpose of the Statistical Overview 1.2. The Engineering Profession 1.3. Statistical Consistency 1.4. Outline of the Overview Chapter 2 The Structure and Characteristics of Engineering in Australia Key Points 2.1. Cross section and time series statistics 2.2. The engineering labour force 2.3. Employment in engineering 2.4. Immigration and the engineering labour force 2.5. Industry distributions and engineering specialisations 2.6. Age and age structure Chapter 3 How has the engineering labour force changed over time? Key Points 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Trends in the engineering labour force 3.3. Employment in engineering occupations 3.4. The influence of immigration Chapter 4 Transition from school to engineering education Key Points 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Enabling studies in high school 4.3. Transition from school to university engineering Chapter 5 University education of engineers Key Points 5.1. Introduction 5.2. University commencements 5.3. Enrolments in engineering courses 5.4. Completions of engineering courses 5.5. The relative size of engineering completions Chapter 6 Entry level graduations Key Points 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Engineering technologists 6.3. Professional engineers 6.4. Engineering associates 6.5. An overview of entry level growth Chapter 7 Skilled migration Key Points 7.1. Skilled migration and the recognition of engineering qualifications 7.2. Changes to migration policies 7.3. Administrative changes 7.4. Permanent migration 7.5. Temporary migration 7.6. Migration and the flow of new graduates 1 1 2 3
6 6 7 8 9 11 16
20 20 22 25 25
27 27 28 30
35 36 36 39 42 42
46 46 47 48 51 53
55 55 56 58 58 59 59
Chapter 8 Some characteristics of engineers Key Points 8.1. Introduction 8.2. Engineering responsibility levels 8.3. Age of engineers 8.4. Work experience 8.5. Salary packages Chapter 9 The supply and demand for engineers Key Points 9.1. Skill shortages and labour market changes 9.2. Skill shortages and recruiting difficulties
60 60 61 61 64 66
71 71 74
ii
TABLES
Chapter 2 Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 2.5 Table 2.6 Table 2.7 Table 2.8 Table 2.9 Chapter 3 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Chapter 4 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 5.7 Table 5.8 Table 5.9 Table 5.10 Table 5.11 Table 5.12 Domestic students commencing courses in engineering and related technologies Overseas students commencing courses in engineering and related technologies Students commencing courses in engineering and related technology, by country of origin Students commencing courses in engineering and related technology, by gender Domestic students enrolled in engineering and related technology courses Overseas students enrolled in engineering and related technology courses Students enrolled in engineering and related technology courses, by country of origin Students enrolled in engineering and related technology courses, by gender Domestic students completing courses in engineering and related technology Overseas students completing courses in engineering and related technology Students completing courses in engineering and related technology, by country of origin Students completing courses in engineering and related technology, by gender The engineering labour force in Australia, 2006 census The engineering labour force in Australia by country of origin The overseas born engineering labour force, time of arrival in Australia Engineering specialisations and employment industries, males Engineering specialisations and employment industries, females Engineering specialisations and employment industries, persons The age structure of the engineering labour force, 2006 census The age structure for non-engineering skills, 2006 census Labour force shares, selected age groups, engineering and non-engineering skills 7 10 10 13 14 15 17 17 18
The engineering labour force Comparing labour force participation and unemployment rates for the engineering, skilled non-engineering and Australian labour forces The engineering labour force employed in engineering occupations The employed engineering labour force by country of origin
22 24 25 25
28 29
37 37 38 38 40 40 40 41 43 43 44 44
iii
Chapter 6 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 6.6 Table 6.7 Table 6.8 Chapter 7 Table 7.1 Chapter 8 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 8.3 Table 8.4 Table 8.5 Table 8.6 Table 8.7 Chapter 9 Table 9.1 Table 9.2 Table 9.3 Table 9.4
Domestic students completing three year bachelors courses in engineering Domestic students completing four year bachelors courses in engineering Domestic students completing four year bachelors double degrees in engineering Domestic students completing four year bachelors degrees, including double degrees, in engineering Completion of diplomas and advanced diplomas in engineering from TAFE colleges Completion of diplomas and advanced diplomas in engineering from universities Completion of all engineering associate qualifications from universities and TAFE colleges The flow of new domestic graduates in engineering from educational institutions
48 49 49 50 52 52 53 53
Immigration of engineers
58
The average ages of private sector engineers The average ages of public sector engineers The overall average ages of engineers Average years of work experience of engineers in the public sector Average years of work experience of engineers in the private sector Average salary packages for engineers in the public sector Average salary packages for engineers in the private sector
62 62 63 65 65 67 67
The engineering labour force, geographic distribution of key parameters Unemployment rates for engineering specialisations in the census Difficulties experienced recruiting engineers The consequences of difficulties recruiting engineers
73 74 77 77
iv
FIGURES
Chapter 2 Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 Chapter 3 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3 Figure 3.4 Figure 3.3 Chapter 4 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6 Figure 4.7 Figure 4.8 The industry distribution of the employed engineering labour force, 2006 census The distribution of the employed engineering labour force by engineering specialisations, 2006 census The age structure of the engineering labour force, 2006 census The age structure of non-engineering skills groups, 2006 census
11 11 17 18
Relative growth in the engineering, non-engineering skilled and Australian labour supply Engineering labour force participation compared to non-engineering Skills and all labour in the Australian economy Growth in the demand for engineers, non-engineering skilled labour and total labour in Australia Trends in unemployment rates for engineering, non-engineering skills and the overall Australian labour market The proportion of overseas born individuals employed in the engineering, non-engineering skills and in overall employment
22 23 24 24 26
Year 12 participation in mathematics Year 12 participation in physics and chemistry Engineering university applications, offers and acceptances Applications for university engineering courses compared to non-engineering courses Acceptances of offers for university engineering courses compared to non-engineering courses The TES profile for acceptances in engineering and related technology courses compared to non-engineering courses The TES profile for acceptances in engineering and related technology courses in 2009 and 2010 The female share of acceptances by students with TES over 90, 2008 to 2010
29 30 31 32 32 33 33 34
Chapter 5 Figure 5.1 Figure 5.2 Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Chapter 7 Figure 7.1 Chapter 8 Figure 8.1 Figure 8.2 Figure 8.3 Figure 8.4 Figure 8.5 Figure 8.6
Domestic completions in selected engineering courses compared to corresponding completions in all disciplines Overseas completions in selected engineering courses compared to corresponding completions in all disciplines
45 45
54
59
The average age of private sector engineers by responsibility level The average age of public sector engineers by responsibility level The average ages of Australian engineers Average years of work experience of engineers in the public sector Average years of work experience of engineers in the private sector Relative growth in engineer level 1 salary packages and total earnings
62 63 64 65 66 68
Figure 8.7 Figure 8.8 Figure 8.9 Figure 8.10 Figure 8.11 Chapter 9 Figure 9.1 Figure 9.2 Figure 9.3 Figure 9.4
Relative growth in engineer level 2 salary packages and total earnings Relative growth in engineer level 3 salary packages and total earnings Relative growth in engineer level 4 salary packages and total earnings Relative growth in engineer level 5 salary packages and total earnings Relative growth in salary packages for engineers above level 5 and total earnings
68 68 69 69 70
The proportion of respondents that experienced difficulties recruiting engineers in the past 12 months Engineering specialisations and difficulties recruiting engineers Engineering levels and difficulties recruiting engineers Location and difficulties experienced recruiting engineers
75 75 76 76
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose of the statistical overview
Engineers and engineering have been vital contributors to Australias prosperity and lifestyle. In the future, engineers will be called upon to help resolve water shortages, to improve the quality and environmental integrity of the built environment, to assist adaptation to Australias changing climate and to implement the energy, transport and industrial changes necessary for climate change mitigation. One of the functions of Engineers Australia is to advocate for changes that improve engineering and the engineering profession in Australia and statistics on the size, structure and characteristics of the engineering profession in Australia are vital to discharge this function. In Australia, availability of occupational statistics is fragmented at the best of times and often the definitions and concepts applied do not line up with professional requirements in engineering. This Statistical Overview aims to cut through these difficulties by assembling a range of statistics from a variety of official and other sources to assist policy analysis, development and planning on matters involving engineering.
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 technologies to new situations. Engineering Technologists require at least the equivalent of the competencies in a three year bachelors degree in engineering. Engineering Associates apply detailed knowledge of standards and codes of practice to selecting, specifying, installing, commissioning, monitoring, maintaining, repairing and modifying complex assets such as structures, plant, equipment, components and systems. The education, training and experience of Engineering Associates equip them with the necessary theoretical knowledge and analytical skills for testing, fault diagnosis and understanding the limitations of complex assets in familiar operating situations. Engineering Associates require at least the equivalent of the competencies in an associate degree in engineering or a diploma or advanced diploma in engineering from a university or TAFE college.
To Engineers Australia the engineering team and the engineering profession are synonymous. Engineers work in an extraordinary variety of occupations3 and it is a mistake to believe that engineers work only in a limited range of occupations. There was a time when careers as engineers were characterised by advancement through a narrow set of expert technical occupations with long periods of service at most steps. In modern open labour markets like that in Australia two important developments have occurred to change this. First, as the Australian economy has grown in sophistication, the analytical expertise of engineers has been recognised and applied in an expanding range of circumstances and occupations. Engineers are now employed as managers, as researchers, as computer software and hardware specialists, as financial analysts, especially in respect of infrastructure projects and as regulators of industry and transport practices, and in traditional engineering occupations. Second, career paths of individuals are more diverse than once was the case. Individuals change jobs more frequently, accept side-ways movements to broaden their experience and often change jobs to seek new challenges. Work satisfaction, new challenges and making a difference have become important career motivators. Engineers are as much part of this phenomenon as other professions. In this more complex environment, few occupations that attract engineers to their ranks retain traditional job titles and the presumption that engineers only work in jobs with engineer in their job titles is no longer valid. Individuals with engineering qualifications respond to labour market incentives, like everyone else and this may mean that they do not necessarily practice engineering skills. Engineering qualifications develop an individuals problem solving and analytical skills, skills that are highly valued across the Australian economy and not just in engineering. In some economies, individuals must be registered to practice engineering. Registration simplifies the distinction between engineering practitioners and engineering graduates who have moved into non-engineering work. However, registration is not required in Australia, except in a handful of specific circumstances and membership of organisations like Engineers Australia is voluntary. Thus distinguishing the two groups is complex and difficult but because it has vital policy implications, this issue must be confronted to fully understand the dynamics of the profession.
For an analysis of the US situation see The Education and Employment of Engineering Graduates, Engineering Workforce Project Report No 1, Abt Associates, for the National Science Foundation, June 2004, www.abtassociates.com
Statistical Consistency
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 minor differences in statistics to major discontinuities. The ABS usually gives ample warning of impending changes and often provides overlapping statistics series to demonstrate the impacts of the change. Many government agencies that collect statistics adopt ABS classifications as a matter of course. But this is not always the case and some agencies persist with classifications discarded by the ABS for many years. This practice can have severe consequences for the comparability of statistical series. Two situations of this nature are encountered in later Chapters. TAFE statistics collected by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) moved to a new educational classification later than the ABS because the NCVER collections are dependent on adoption of the new classification by State Education agencies. The consequences were some delay in the availability of statistics and a later formal start to the new statistics, so that that TAFE time series are one year shorter. These are inconveniences but not major issues. However, the Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC) has persisted with the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations (ASCO) until 1 July 2011, well beyond the move by the ABS to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) in 2001. This is a more serious issue. Since the ABS change comparability of employment and migration statistics has been compromised and now that DIAC has made the change there will be a major discontinuity in statistics at the level of aggregation needed to study engineers and engineering. Consistency is not just a matter of whether ABS classifications systems are used or not but how well classification systems represent the real world. Previous editions of the Statistical Overview have drawn attention to the difficulties that arise from the practice used to classify the field of non-school educational qualifications. The key criterion used is to identify the field of the highest qualification held by an individual. But the level of a qualification is not necessarily the best guide to the skills an individual applies in every-day work. In engineering, it is common for individuals to acquire masters degrees in business administration (MBA) to complement engineering qualifications. Typically, these individuals continue engineering careers4, but in official statistics engineers with an MBA are countered as part of the business field rather than part of engineering. The consequence is that the stock of engineers in Australia is under-estimated, potentially by a significant amount. There is no reliable way to adjust for this problem.
Salaries surveys consistently show that large proportions of engineers hold post-graduate non-engineering qualifications; see Association of Professional Engineers, Scientists and Managers of Australia (APESMA), Professional Engineers Remuneration Survey Report series, www.apesma.asn.au and Engineers Australia, Salary and Benefits Survey Report series, www.engineersmedia.com.au
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Educational constraints needed to define the engineering labour force within a statistical framework corresponding to the statistics used for all macroeconomic labour market policy decisions in Australia. This year Engineers Australia commissioned an unpublished data extract from the EWS for the past decade and applied conventional labour force definitions to compile estimates of the demand for, and supply of, the engineering team in Australia. The third change this year is a more detailed examination of statistics relating to the transition from school to engineering studies. In previous years the trends in student numbers in enabling subjects for engineering were highlighted. These are once again included, but are supplemented by an analysis of the applications for places in engineering from year 12 students, offers made by universities in response and offers accepted by students. The profile of tertiary education scores for offers accepted is also analysed. The final change this year is that State and Territory statistics are made available in companion publications. The practice in the Statistical Overview has been to focus on national level statistics with only an occasional reference to State and Territories statistics. There have been numerous requests for State and Territory statistics and the companion publications provide compatible information for each jurisdiction. Not all the statistics covered in the Overview are available at State and Territory level. Chapter 2 deals with the most common statistical question asked of Engineers Australia how many engineers are there in Australia? The question is considered using Census statistics. The chapter also reviews several structural characteristics of the engineering team. Chapter 3 looks at the same question from a time series perspective using EWS statistics. Chapters 4 and 5 cover engineering education. Chapter 4 looks at the transition from school into engineering courses. Understanding this issue is critical for policy designed to increase Australias output of its engineers, and to moderate reliance on immigration of engineers. Chapter 5 deals with the higher education pipeline; new commencements, enrolments and completions, for domestic and overseas students. The statistics cover two separate issues; statistics on domestic students chart the education and eventual flow of permanent Australian residents into the engineering team. The statistics on overseas students primarily deal with Australias export of engineering education services. While individuals from this stream can choose to migrate to Australia and join the engineering team, they must first comply with migration formalities. Chapter 6 draws out statistics on the flow of new domestic graduates into the engineering team from entry level engineering courses. It covers both university graduates and graduates from TAFE diplomas and advanced diplomas in engineering. TAFE statistics are available for completions but not on a consistent basis for commencements and enrolments. As well as overall numbers, the chapter reviews flows for engineering specialisations. Chapter 7 looks at immigration of engineers to Australia under permanent and temporary skilled migration programs. These programs have increasingly put the onus onto employers to deal with skill shortages or temporary imbalances between demand and supply. Employers have responded by sponsoring increasing numbers of temporary migration and then sponsoring them for conversion to permanent visa status, if employment is satisfactory. Statistics on broad trends in permanent and temporary migration are examined but at this stage, statistics on the proportion of temporary migrants that later become permanent migrants are not available. Chapter 8 examines trends in a range of characteristics of engineers including, work experience, age and salaries. These statistics come from the APESMA salary surveys. These surveys are based on statistical sample design principles with samples drawn from APESMA and Engineers Australia members but only for professional engineers. Never-theless the statistics contains useful and important insights.
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Finally, chapter 9 brings together what is known about the supply of and demand for engineers from earlier chapters and survey results on the consequences of engineering skills shortages for employers.
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 and construct tables from census data bases to suite their objectives thus facilitating research experimentation. Robust use of census statistics can significantly advance understanding of the engineering labour force. While there are some limitations associated with census definitions and statistical classifications, working with them is a small price to pay for this information. Another census is due in August 2011 and shortly the flexibility of the Tablebuilder facility can be directed at examining detailed changes across two census years adding a new dimension to understanding of the engineering labour force. Time series statistics for the entire engineering labour force have not previously been available. Various approaches have been employed to overcome this deficiency. Some analysts have used occupational extracts from the ABS labour force surveys. When dealing with general labour market questions this is a useful approach but, because the labour force survey does not collect information about an individuals field and level of education, it is severely limited when it comes to analysing a group defined by formal education in a specific field. Other substitutes include studying the trends in statistics relating to changes in the stock of engineers like education and migration statistics. This is done in later chapters, but available statistics do not cover all the flows into and out of the stock of engineers, a notable omission is statistics on the numbers leaving the labour force to retire or for personal reasons. Chapter 3 looks at a fresh approach to time series statistics to overcome this problem but while good aggregate statistics can be compiled the compromise is the level of detail available.
Employed in Engineering 19864 2048 21912 73995 7325 % in Engineering 70.0 57.1 68.6 67.1 50.8 Source: Compiled using ABS 2006 Population Census TableBuilder
In 2006, there were 305,018 individuals in the engineering population in Australia. The engineering population comprised 89.3% males and 10.7% females. About 12.2% of the
5
The material in this chapter draws on Engineers Australia, The Engineering Profession in Australia, A Profile from the 2006 Population Census, September 2010, www.engineersaustralia.org.au
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Engineering population had postgraduate qualifications and 48.0% had a bachelors degree in engineering. The ABS defines a bachelors degree as having a duration between three and six years, thus 60.2% of the engineering population were qualified to be professional engineers or engineering technologists. Unfortunately, further disaggregation is not possible. The remaining 39.8% of the engineering population has diplomas or advanced diplomas in engineering. All ages from 15 years onwards are included in these figures. The engineering population was divided between an engineering labour force comprising 249,785 individuals and 55,233 individuals were not in the labour force. The majority of the latter group had retired, but about 6,002 were students in full time studies, mainly in the 24 to 34 years age groups, likely to re-enter the labour force on the completion of their studies. The engineering labour force is small in the Australian context and in 2006 was only 2.6% of the Australian labour force. The participation rate (the proportion of the engineering population active in the labour market) for engineering labour force was 81.9%. To evaluate this result it can be compared to the participation rate for non-engineering skills with the same level of qualifications; the rate for this group was only slightly lower than in engineering (80.8%) but both skilled groups had participation rates significantly higher than the corresponding rate in general labour force (64.6%). Employment levels in engineering were very high and unemployment was very low. There were 242,419 individuals employed and 7,366 unemployed, yielding an unemployment rate of 2.9% compared to 5.2% for the economy. Unemployment rates this low are often described by economists as frictional unemployment, resulting from the short periods of unemployment that occur between individuals moving from one job to another. Very low unemployment in the engineering labour force is a sign of engineering skills shortages. But, skill shortages were not unique to engineering and were also experienced among nonengineering skilled groups where the unemployment rate was 3.0%. The proportion of females is successively lower in the engineering population (10.7%), the engineering labour force (9.8%) and employed engineers (9.6%). Female unemployment rates were twice male unemployment rates, irrespective of qualification level. This phenomenon was not evident among non-engineering skills groups. Just over 25% of female engineers were employed part time compared to 10.6% of males, but the skewed gender balance meant that males employed part time out-numbered females by over four to one. Growth in the number of female engineers is a comparatively recent phenomenon and is reflected in the mix of female engineering qualifications; comparatively few females hold engineering associate qualifications which were more prevalent during earlier decades.
Op cit, pp27-31
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 employed in engineering. This raises the question whether engineering skills have been used productively in non-engineering occupations? Successive Australian governments have maintained that the productivity of the economy is improved as education level of the labour force rises. Aspects of this policy are given more or less emphasis from time to time but it has not been qualified by requiring people to work in occupations directly relating to the field of their training. In other words, providing that engineering qualifications are used in a manner that is consistent with the level of training involved, it can be said that they have been productively used. The engineering work undertaken by the engineering team is graded as level 1 or level 2 in the Australian Qualification Framework and productive deployment of these qualifications in non-engineering work requires that the occupations involved are also graded at level 1 or level 2. This criterion was applied to all 4-digit ANZSCO occupations where engineers were employed. It was confirmed that the 142,822 individuals with engineering qualifications employed in 58 identified engineering occupations worked at the appropriate level. Another 40,179 individuals or 16.1% of the engineering labour force worked in non-engineering occupations at level 1 or level 2. Although these engineering resources were not used in engineering work, they were used productively elsewhere in the economy. The remaining 66,784 individuals employed in occupations graded as level 3 or lower, or were unemployed. These engineering resources were not applied in a manner commensurate with their training and could not be said to be productively used. In some instances the occupations concerned were in engineering but involved, for example, individuals trained to the level required by the engineering team working as engineering trades-persons.
Employed in Engineering 80833 5474 86307 51307 5208 % in Engineering 63.6 52.0 62.7 52.3 37.5 Source: Compiled using ABS 2006 Population Census TableBuilder
Table 2.3: The overseas born engineering labour force, time of arrival in Australia, 2006 census Labour Force Status Employed Full Time Employed Part Time Employed away from work Total Employed Unemployed seeking FT Unemployed seeking PT Total Unemployed Labour Force Not in the Labour Force Engineering Population Unemployment rate (%) Participation rate (%) Prior to 1990 Males Females Total 38170 2888 41058 5352 1034 6386 2069 225 2294 45591 4147 49738 1119 76 1195 291 76 367 1410 152 1562 47001 4299 51300 14970 1788 16758 61971 6087 68058 3.0 75.8 3.5 70.6 3.0 75.4 1991 to 1999 Males Females Total 21879 3550 25429 2180 1068 3248 936 221 1157 24995 4839 29834 726 142 868 157 108 265 883 250 1133 25878 5089 30967 3009 1673 4682 28887 6762 35649 3.4 89.6 4.9 75.3 3.7 86.9 14961 48.3 2000 to 2006 All Overseas Born Males Females Total Males Females Total 18925 2616 21541 78974 9054 88028 3890 1109 4999 11422 3211 14633 907 196 1103 3912 642 4554 23722 3921 27643 94308 12907 107215 973 329 1302 2818 547 3365 607 267 874 1055 451 1506 1580 596 2176 3873 998 4871 25302 4517 29819 98181 13905 112086 4543 2243 6786 22522 5704 28226 29845 6760 36605 120703 19609 140312 6.2 84.8 12334 48.7 13.2 66.8 1604 35.5 7.3 81.5 13938 46.7 3.9 81.3 51307 52.3 7.2 70.9 5208 37.5 4.3 79.9 56515 50.4
Employed in Engineering 25856 1760 27616 13117 1844 % in Engineering 55.0 40.9 53.8 50.7 36.2 Source: Compiled using ABS 2006 Population Census TableBuilder
The proportion of the overseas born engineering labour force employed in engineering occupations was lower than for Australian born. For the Australian born engineering labour force 62.7% were employed in engineering occupations and 37.3% were either employed in non-engineering occupations or were unemployed. The proportion of males employed in engineering was even higher at 63.6%. However, only 50.4% of the overseas born engineering labour force was employed in engineering occupations. In the case of overseas born females, the majority were employed in non-engineering occupations or were unemployed and only 37.5% employed in engineering occupations. Skilled migration is not new to engineering. The Tables show that just under half of the overseas born engineering population arrived in Australia over twenty years ago. Time in Australia is an important factor in the labour market experience of the overseas born engineering population. Skilled migration rules favour younger age groups and it was only during 2011 that prospective migrants aged 40 years and over could apply for a visa. The emphasis on younger migrants is reflected in the labour force participation rates in Table 2.3 and in the fall in unemployment rates as time in Australia increases. The same pattern is also evident in proportion of the overseas born engineering labour force employed in engineering. In the most recently arrived group, only 46.7% were employed in engineering occupations and 53.3% were employed in non-engineering occupations or were unemployed. Skilled migration rules have recently changed to address this issue.
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Figure 2.2: The distribution of the employed engineering labour force by engineering specialisations, 2006 population census
Total Other Engineering Maritime Aerospace Electrical & Electronic Civil Mechanical & Industrial Automotive Process & Resources Manufacturing Engineering & Related Technologies 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 Females Males
Two industries dominate the industry distribution. They are Professional, Scientific and Technical Services with 48,454 employed engineers (20.0%) and Manufacturing with 47,129 employed engineers (19.4%). Over the past decade these industries have experienced quite different employment circumstances7. Total employment in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services grew by 49.2% between February 2000 and May 2011. In all probability engineering employment will have shared this growth. However, over the same period,
ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, Cat No 6291.0.55.003, May 2011, www.abs.gov.au
11
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 total employment in Manufacturing has fallen by 9.0% and it is likely that engineering employment has also fallen. The third largest industry, Public Administration and Safety, employed 9.4% of the engineering labour force. Industry shares fell quite rapidly after that; with 7.2% employed in Construction; 6.1% in Transport, Postal & Warehousing; 4.1% employed in Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services; 3.9% in Information Media and Telecommunications and 3.7% in each of Education and Training and Retail Trade. In recent years the Mining industry has attracted a lot of attention. However, direct employment of the engineering team in the Mining industry is relatively modest. In May 2011, there were 213,200 Australian employed in Mining. The census showed that the Mining industry employed 8,726 engineers, or 3.6% of engineers. Even with substantial growth direct employment of engineers in mining would remain a modest share. The nomenclature applied by educational institutions to engineering qualifications has changed over time even though most engineering qualifications have common elements and often are specialisations of four key branches; mechanical, electrical, civil and chemical engineering. The engineering specialisations in Tables 2.4 to 2.6 use the Australian Standard Classification of Education (ASCED) but the statistics show how engineers describe the branch of engineering they belong to. To facilitate understanding the following additional information is provided about engineering specialisations included in the categories described in the Tables. Process and Resource Engineering includes o Chemical Engineering o Mining Engineering o Materials Engineering o Food Processing Technology Mechanical and Industrial Engineering includes o Mechanical Engineers o Industrial engineers Civil Engineering includes o Civil Engineers o Construction Engineers o Building Services Engineers o Water and Sanitary Engineers o Transport Engineers o Geotechnical Engineers o Ocean Engineers Electrical and Electronic Engineering includes o Electrical Engineers o Electronic Engineers o Computer Engineers o Communication Technologies Aerospace Engineering includes o Aerospace Engineers o Aircraft Maintenance Engineers Maritime Engineering includes o Maritime Engineers o Maritime Construction Engineers Other Engineering includes o Environmental Engineers o Biomedical Engineers
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Table 2.4: Engineering specialisations and employing industries; 2006 census, males Engineering & Manufacturing Process & Automotive Mechanical & Related Resources Industrial Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 619 23 168 13 178 Mining 3173 36 2669 8 750 Manufacturing 20038 1354 4052 91 6416 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 3972 43 244 4 554 Construction 7057 126 392 21 1180 Wholesale Trade 4411 271 638 29 1102 Retail Trade 2852 188 394 71 739 Accommodation and Food Services 1315 94 199 11 295 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 3647 118 279 45 859 Information Media and Telecommunications 2802 79 82 8 172 Financial and Insurance Services 2183 42 307 5 267 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 865 49 90 14 139 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 22730 297 2170 28 3062 Administrative and Support Services 1440 78 235 13 360 Public Administration and Safety 8140 110 590 41 970 Education and Training 3282 113 641 16 488 Health Care and Social Assistance 1212 40 137 8 251 Arts and Recreation Services 415 17 51 3 86 Other Services 1573 63 133 89 531 Inadequately described & not stated 2294 69 221 9 391 Total 94020 3210 13692 527 18790 Source: ABS, 2006 Population Census Tablebuilder Civil 150 320 1195 901 3896 329 406 250 743 135 225 250 6134 251 3654 411 140 68 179 281 19918 Electrical & Aerospace Maritime Other All Electronic Engineering Specialisations 275 394 183 45 2048 853 89 173 29 8100 7950 1125 656 226 43103 3300 32 55 110 9215 3278 251 171 117 16489 3615 232 144 78 10849 2160 378 171 64 7423 819 207 99 35 3324 2172 4291 1527 186 13867 5318 105 19 20 8740 994 145 50 32 4250 362 119 35 22 1945 8116 608 404 461 44010 1005 238 115 56 3791 3611 2073 499 1105 20793 1871 544 108 112 7586 944 198 72 115 3117 325 72 40 13 1090 1836 127 63 43 4637 1293 146 125 54 4883 50097 11374 4709 2923 219260
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Table 2.5: Engineering specialisations and employing industries; 2006 census, females Engineering & Manufacturing Process & Automotive Mechanical & Related Resources Industrial Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 36 45 32 0 3 Mining 263 6 258 0 35 Manufacturing 1466 489 1130 6 284 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 411 7 59 0 24 Construction 454 48 51 0 43 Wholesale Trade 428 167 194 0 69 Retail Trade 482 435 211 0 100 Accommodation and Food Services 258 114 104 0 50 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 246 41 42 0 42 Information Media and Telecommunications 314 33 28 0 15 Financial and Insurance Services 373 60 112 0 38 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 89 31 11 3 13 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 2234 122 443 0 193 Administrative and Support Services 189 68 85 0 40 Public Administration and Safety 852 68 127 0 55 Education and Training 545 108 309 0 61 Health Care and Social Assistance 384 153 175 0 76 Arts and Recreation Services 53 31 12 0 4 Other Services 110 81 54 0 24 Inadequately described & not stated 227 41 68 0 25 Total 9414 2148 3505 9 1194 Source: ABS, 2006 Population Census Tablebuilder Civil 12 18 124 65 219 46 66 56 69 25 48 25 626 31 359 85 75 11 29 39 2028 Electrical & Aerospace Maritime Other All Electronic Engineering Specialisations 17 17 6 4 172 21 6 8 11 626 439 49 15 24 4026 120 3 3 41 733 78 10 6 14 923 215 8 7 17 1151 237 23 18 24 1596 110 27 19 19 757 100 299 37 11 887 316 9 3 8 751 169 18 6 15 839 27 7 3 0 209 595 44 12 175 4444 99 15 4 20 551 216 113 14 99 1903 210 60 14 54 1446 164 30 15 49 1121 24 8 5 10 158 70 6 3 3 380 75 9 3 6 493 3302 761 201 604 23166
14
Table 2.6: Engineering specialisations and employing industries; 2006 census, persons Engineering & Manufacturing Process & Automotive Mechanical & Related Resources Industrial Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 655 68 200 13 181 Mining 3436 42 2927 8 785 Manufacturing 21504 1843 5182 97 6700 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 4383 50 303 4 578 Construction 7511 174 443 21 1223 Wholesale Trade 4839 438 832 29 1171 Retail Trade 3334 623 605 71 839 Accommodation and Food Services 1573 208 303 11 345 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 3893 159 321 45 901 Information Media and Telecommunications 3116 112 110 8 187 Financial and Insurance Services 2556 102 419 5 305 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 954 80 101 17 152 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 24964 419 2613 28 3255 Administrative and Support Services 1629 146 320 13 400 Public Administration and Safety 8992 178 717 41 1025 Education and Training 3827 221 950 16 549 Health Care and Social Assistance 1596 193 312 8 327 Arts and Recreation Services 468 48 63 3 90 Other Services 1683 144 187 89 555 Inadequately described & not stated 2521 110 289 9 416 Total 103434 5358 17197 536 19984 Source: ABS, 2006 Population Census Tablebuilder Civil 162 338 1319 966 4115 375 472 306 812 160 273 275 6760 282 4013 496 215 79 208 320 21946 Electrical & Aerospace Maritime Other All Electronic Engineering Specialisations 292 411 189 49 2220 874 95 181 40 8726 8389 1174 671 250 47129 3420 35 58 151 9948 3356 261 177 131 17412 3830 240 151 95 12000 2397 401 189 88 9019 929 234 118 54 4081 2272 4590 1564 197 14754 5634 114 22 28 9491 1163 163 56 47 5089 389 126 38 22 2154 8711 652 416 636 48454 1104 253 119 76 4342 3827 2186 513 1204 22696 2081 604 122 166 9032 1108 228 87 164 4238 349 80 45 23 1248 1906 133 66 46 5017 1368 155 128 60 5376 53399 12135 4910 3527 242426
15
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 The largest numbers of engineers allocate themselves to the category Engineering and Related Technologies not further defined. In other words, these individuals see themselves as general engineers rather than as specialists belonging to the other categories listed in the Tables. In all, 103,434, or 42.7% of employed engineers are in this group. The next largest group is Electrical and Electronic Engineers with 53,399, or 22.0% of employed engineers. All other groups have shares in single digits; Civil engineers were 9.1% of employment; Mechanical and Industrial engineers were 8.2%; Process and Resource engineers were 7.1%; Aerospace engineers were 5.0% and Manufacturing and Maritime were 2.2% and 2.0% respectively. There were only 1.5% of employed engineers in the other category.
For practical and resource reasons, ages up to and including 85 years were included in the estimates. There were 93 individuals in the engineering labour force above this age and the impact of their inclusion would be negligible.
16
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 groups and impedes discussion. Instead of looking at age groups by gender, a consolidated approach is used instead.
Table 2.7: The age structure of the engineering labour force, 2006 population census Males Females Total Males (%) Females (%) 15-19 years 246 49 295 0.10 0.02 20-24 years 10774 2284 13058 4.31 0.91 25-29 years 24367 4809 29176 9.76 1.93 30-34 years 30135 4612 34747 12.06 1.85 35-39 years 30537 3615 34152 12.23 1.45 40-44 years 32964 3532 36496 13.20 1.41 45-49 years 30138 2727 32865 12.07 1.09 50-54 years 26980 1547 28527 10.80 0.62 55-59 years 21361 787 22148 8.55 0.32 60-64 years 11402 294 11696 4.56 0.12 65 and over 6455 172 6627 2.58 0.07 Total 225359 24428 249787 90.22 9.78 Source: ABS, 2006 Population Census TableBuilder
Table 2.8: the age structure of non-engineering skills, 2006 population census Males Females Total 15-19 years 2399 4964 7363 20-24 years 81297 138690 219987 25-29 years 144402 220646 365048 30-34 years 163525 223088 386613 35-39 years 159605 202481 362086 40-44 years 145178 188311 333489 45-49 years 145613 192153 337766 50-54 years 130656 161851 292507 55-59 years 99740 106890 206630 60-64 years 51538 46350 97888 65 and over 31474 20063 51537 Total 1155427 1505487 2660914 Source: ABS, 2006 Population Census TableBuilder Males (%) 0.09 3.06 5.43 6.15 6.00 5.46 5.47 4.91 3.75 1.94 1.18 43.42 Females (%) 0.19 5.21 8.29 8.38 7.61 7.08 7.22 6.08 4.02 1.74 0.75 56.58 Total (%) 0.28 8.27 13.72 14.53 13.61 12.53 12.69 10.99 7.77 3.68 1.94 100.00
Total (%) 0.12 5.23 11.68 13.91 13.67 14.61 13.16 11.42 8.87 4.68 2.65 100.00
Figure 2.3: The age structure of the engineering labour force, 2006 population census
Females 65 and over 60-64 years 55-59 years 50-54 years Males
Age Groups
45-49 years 40-44 years 35-39 years 30-34 years 25-29 years 20-24 years 15-19 years -14.00 -12.00 -10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00
% in Age Groups
17
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 In general, there are proportionally fewer individuals in lower age groups and proportionally more in older age groups in engineering than is the case in non-engineering skills. In engineering, the average age occurred in the largest age group, 40 to 44 years with 14.6%. Although the non-engineering average was in the same age group, here it was the fifth largest group with three larger groups in the younger ages and one in the older. In engineering, 44.6% of the labour force was younger than 40 years compared to 50.4% for non-engineering. The reverse is true for older age groups. In engineering, 40.8% of the labour force were aged 45 years and over and 16.2% were aged 55 years and over. Nearly all of these individuals were men. In the non-engineering skills, there were proportionally fewer in these age groups with 37.1% and 13.4% respectively and there was a more even gender balance. The suggestion is that the engineering labour force is older and its dependence on men means that as older groups retire, replacing them by younger men will become increasingly more difficult.
Figure 2.4: The age structure of non-engineering skills groups, 2006 population census
Females 65 and over 60-64 years 55-59 years 50-54 years Males
Age Groups
45-49 years 40-44 years 35-39 years 30-34 years 25-29 years 20-24 years 15-19 years -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
% in Age Groups
Table 2.9: Labour force shares, selected age groups, engineering & non-engineering skills Age Group 15 to 34 years 35 to 54 years 55 years & over Engineering labour force (%) Australian born Overseas born 34.40 26.68 35.98 56.18 15.43 17.14 Non-engineering labour force (%) 36.80 36.21 13.39
Skilled migration has been the mainstay of the Commonwealth Governments response to skills shortages. Since the skilled migration points test has a strong bias in favour of younger prospective migrants and excludes those over 45 years entirely, there has been a presumption that the age structure for the overseas born component of the engineering labour force is younger and that it is the Australian born component that is aging. Table 2.9 shows that the contrary is true because immigration is not a new feature of the engineering labour force and earlier generations of migrant engineers are themselves aging. In 2006, there were 26.7% persons aged 34 years and younger in the overseas born component of the engineering labour force compared to 34.4% for the Australian born component. The overseas born component had 56.2% in the middle years and 17.1% in the
18
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 later years of working life compared to 36.0% and 15.4% respectively for the Australian born component. The high concentration of overseas born in the middle age groups reflects the operation of the points test favouring migrants in these ages. The proportion of the Australian born component aged 55 years and over is well above the corresponding proportion for nonengineering skills, but the proportion of overseas born engineers in this group is higher still at 17.1%.
19
Engineering is far more dependent on skilled migration than is the case for nonengineering skills. In 2010, the overseas born share of employment was 52.6% in engineering compared to 36.0% for non-engineering skills and 26.8% for the general labour force.
3.1 Introduction
Chapter 2 considered the structure and characteristics of the engineering labour force, drawing on cross section statistics from the 2006 population census. When the 2011 population census statistics become available, the TableBuilder facility will be used to examine how the detailed measures available in the census change over time. This chapter considers broad changes that have occurred since the census drawing on ABS Education and Work statistics.
Introduction
20
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Macroeconomic analyses of the Australian labour market usually employ statistics from the ABS Labour Force Survey (LFS) that is designed to measure the demand for and supply of labour. The LFS cannot be used to measure changes in the demand for and supply of engineers because it cannot satisfy the requirement that the engineering population must have relevant formal qualifications in engineering. Although the LFS can distinguish between broad categories of workers such as managers, professionals and trades-people, the survey questionnaire does not collect the necessary information between, for example, an engineering professional as defined in the engineering team and a professional in another area like accounting. In other words, an alternative to the LFS is needed. The development of surveys supplementary to the LFS offers a way forward. Supplementary surveys were developed by the ABS as a response to growing demand for additional statistics to analyse the labour market more thoroughly. Among the issues of concern were the transition from, initially, school to work and later from post school education to work. The Education and Work Survey (EWS) was devised as part of a program of labour force supplementary surveys. The EWS is conducted annually in May using the same sample framework as the LFS but with a focus on education and the labour market. The EWS can be used to construct measures of the engineering labour force because it includes questions concerning the field and level of qualifications and related matters, as well as labour market status. EWS statistics have not been previously used to analyse the engineering labour market. Published EWS statistics have focused on across the board policies concerning the relationship between labour market experience and education and this is where research has typically been directed. The specific requirements needed to analyse the engineering labour market are not available from EWS publications or ABS web resources. Following discussions with the ABS, a formal request for unpublished EWS statistics was made. These statistics were analysed in a separate report9. This chapter discusses some of the material from this report to examine how the engineering labour market has changed over the past decade. Some differences between EWS and census statistics should be noted. 2. EWS statistics are product of a sample survey of the civilian population, whereas the Census is a complete enumeration of the Australian population. The civilian population does not include defence personnel, a relatively large employer of engineers, but the census does. For many years the EWS sampled what has conventionally been described as the working age population or population aged 15 to 64 years. This changed two years ago when the EWS sample was broadened to include the 65 to 74 years age groups. Unfortunately, for time series work further time needs to elapse before there is sufficient statistics for this age group for useful analyses. In other words, the EWS statistics in this chapter cover ages 15 to 64 years compared to all ages in the census. The EWS like all surveys is limited in the statistical disaggregations that it can support. The census showed that the engineering labour was only 2.6% of the Australian labour market and thus at best is a similar share of the EWS sample. Even some straightforward measures like gender, encounter standard error problems. The discussions with the ABS facilitated the choice of variables requested to situations where standard errors do not compromise analysis. As a result, important insights about the engineering labour force are available from EWS statistics and are comparable in quality to other labour market statistics used for policy purposes in Australia.
Engineers Australia, The Engineering Labour Force in Australia, 2001 to 2010, June 2011, www.engineersaustralia.org.au
21
The supply of engineers is measured by the engineering labour force, or the subset of the engineering population actively engaged in the labour market. In 2001, the supply of engineers was 242,200. Average annual growth over the decade was 4.8%, increasing the supply of engineers by more than growth in the engineering population. By 2010, the supply of engineers had increased by 51.4% to 366,600. In the process the labour force participation rate, already very high, increased further and in 2010 was 90.1%.
Figure 3.1: Relative growth in the engineering, non-engineering skilled and Australian labour supply
Engineering 160.0 Non-engineering Australian
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The demand for engineers is measured by employment. In 2001, the demand for engineers was 232,700 and increased on average by 4.8% per annum through to 2010. This growth equalled average annual growth in the supply of engineers, and increased demand to 352,900 in 2010. Given the size of the engineering population, the demand for, and supply of engineers are balanced by the labour force participation rate and the unemployment rate.
22
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Figure 3.1 examines how growth in the supply of engineers compares to the growth in the supply of non-engineering skilled labour10 and growth in labour supply generally in Australia. Figure 3.1 shows that the supply of skilled labour generally grew much faster than total labour supply. The population with non-engineering skills grew faster than the engineering population and had an average annual growth rate of 5.0%.
Figure 3.2: Engineering labour force participation compared to nonengineering skills and all labour in the Australian economy
Engineering 95.0 Non-engineering All labour
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 3.2 illustrates a key difference between the three groups examined in Figure 3.1. Labour force participation is typically higher for skilled groups than for the population in general, but the labour force participation rate in engineering is significantly higher than for non-engineering skills. Over the past decade, non-engineering skills labour force participation has been close to its average of 86.2%. But in engineering, average labour force participation was 4.0% higher and more variable (see Table 3.2). Comparison of the participation rate and the unemployment rate suggest that engineering labour force participation has responded to labour market conditions, falling as unemployment rises and rising as unemployment falls. Higher labour force participation in engineering meant that engineering labour supply growth was comparable to growth in the supply of non-engineering skills even though the latter had higher average annual population growth. Figure 3.3 shows the growth in labour demand that corresponds to the labour supply growth in Figure 3.1. In broad terms the relationship between labour demand for the three groups is similar to what was shown in the labour supply illustration. The higher variability in the demand for engineers is quite evident and helps to confirm the view that the engineering labour market is responsive to labour market conditions to some extent. As well as changes in the labour force participation rate, labour market adjustment is reflected in changes in the unemployment rate. Figure 3.4 shows the trends in unemployment rates corresponding to the supply and demand conditions illustrated in Figures 3.1 and 3.3. Figure 3.4 confirms the view that skilled individuals in general experience lower unemployment than others in the labour market. Figure 3.4 also shows that engineering unemployment was above non-engineering unemployment for most of the decade. It was only in 2008, anecdotally a year of acute engineering skills shortages, that the engineering unemployment rate fell below the non-engineering rate. The higher variability in engineering unemployment is also evident in Figure 3.4 with the unemployment rate increasing in 2001 and 2002 and remaining high in 2003 when general unemployment continued to fall and there was little change in non-engineering unemployment.
Non-engineering skills are defined as individuals with qualifications comparable in level with the requirements for the engineering team but in a non-engineering discipline.
10
23
150
140
130
120
110
100
90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 3.4: Trends in the unemployment rates for engineering, nonengineering skills and the overall Australian labour market
Engineering 8.0 Non-engineering Australian
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Table 3.2: Comparing labour force participation and unemployment rates for the engineering, skilled non-engineering and overall Australian labour forces Australia overall Non-engineering skills Engineering YEAR Participation (%) Unemployment (%) Participation (%) Unemployment (%) Participation (%) Unemployment (%) 2001 75.0 6.9 85.9 3.2 88.4 3.9 2002 74.9 6.4 86.3 3.3 90.4 4.3 2003 75.7 6.2 85.7 3.4 90.5 4.1 2004 75.5 5.6 85.8 3.1 88.9 3.4 2005 77.1 5.3 86.6 2.8 89.6 3.1 2006 77.4 5.0 86.5 2.5 91.0 3.1 2007 77.6 4.3 86.8 2.4 90.4 2.7 2008 78.1 4.4 85.6 2.5 91.5 2.4 2009 78.8 6.0 86.8 3.6 91.2 4.1 2010 78.2 5.3 86.3 3.0 90.1 3.7 Source: ABS data extract from EWS
The reaction of engineering unemployment to the GFC (increase of 71%) was proportionally higher than non-engineering (increase of 44%) and the overall labour market (increase of 36%). As will be shown in chapter 7, one reason why the engineering unemployment rate recovery in 2010 was less than the two other groups was a record permanent migrant intake, but this does not explain why the unemployment rate increase was so high or why it seems to be a recurring phenomenon.
24
In 2007, 54% of the engineering labour force was employed in one of the 51 ANZSCO engineering occupations identified in the research referenced in chapter 2. In 2008, this share increased to 57.2% but the global financial crisis saw it fall back to 54.4%, before increasing to 58.2% in 2010. The shares of the engineering labour force employed in engineering occupations in the Table are in line with estimates from census statistics, but because there are only four years of EWS statistics available, conclusions about trends are not feasible. What Table 3.3 clearly shows is that when there is excess demand (skill shortages) for engineers, policy design is complicated by the competition between engineering and nonengineering occupations for the available supply of engineers. Employment in engineering fell between 2008 and 2009 when the overall demand for engineers increased. The implication is that part of the answer to overcome engineering shortages is to address the variability in engineering employment because once engineers leave engineering it is difficult to attract them back.
Table 3.4: The employed engineering labour force by country of origin Year Overseas born Australian born 2001 97.3 135.4 2002 120.4 142.2 2003 136.9 136.6 2004 122.3 148.0 2005 127.2 156.1 2006 136.5 156.8 2007 154.5 161.0 2008 169.9 166.9 2009 166.8 175.0 2010 185.7 167.3 Source: ABS data extract from EWS Total 232.7 262.6 273.5 270.3 283.3 293.3 315.5 336.8 341.8 352.9 O/seas born (%) 41.8 45.8 50.1 45.2 44.9 46.5 49.0 50.4 48.8 52.6
25
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 terms of employment rather than labour supply because a choice of one or the other was required to accommodate standard error and resource availability issues. Figure 3.5 illustrates and compares the overseas born share for engineering, non-engineering skills and overall Australian employment.
Figure 3.5: The proportion of overseas born individuals employed in engineering, non-engineering skills and in overall employment
Engineering 55.0 Non-engineering Overall
50.0
45.0
40.0
%
35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
In 2001 the overseas born share of the employed engineering labour force was 41.8% and as shown in Figure 3.3 increased with some annual fluctuations to 52.6% in 2010. The engineering labour force is unusually dependent on overseas born people. Figure 3.3 also shows the corresponding trends for the employed non-engineering and employed Australian labour forces. Although the shares of overseas born people increased in both cases, in neither case was the increase as high as in engineering. As well the shares of overseas born were much lower. In 2010 the proportion of overseas born employed in the Australian labour force was 26.8%. Among non-engineering skilled individuals the share was higher at 36.0%.
26
4.1 Introduction
Ultimately, Australias domestic supply of engineers depends on the flow of students from the school system and from engineering courses at universities and TAFE colleges. Engineers Australia plays its part by accrediting university courses in engineering and discussions have been underway over the past two years seeking to extend accreditation to TAFE courses in engineering. Some courses have already been accredited but it is still early days and more
Introduction
27
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 progress is needed to cover all TAFE courses in engineering. Full details of the accreditation process are on Engineers Australias web-site12. This chapter looks at issues relevant to the flow of students from high school into engineering courses. Universities and TAFE colleges recruit new students primarily from year 12 graduates, but there are increasing numbers of mature age students. Details of enrolment processes are matters for individual universities and colleges and no attempt is made to review them, however, useful oversights can be found in an overview. All engineering courses involve mathematics and science and student background in these subjects is often a key factor in obtaining admission. Section 4.2 considers the trends in these enabling subjects to shed some light on the likely supply of year 12 students that universities and TAFE colleges can draw on. The following section looks in some detail at how the university admissions process influences the flow of year 12 students into university engineering courses. Ideally, the transition to TAFE engineering courses should also be covered, but the statistics for this are not available.
www.engineersaustralia.org.au/education Feeder population for this purpose is the resident Australian population aged 17 years, see ABS, Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories, 2010, Cat No 3201.0, www.abs.gov.au These statistics were reproduced in DEEWR, Undergraduate Applications, Preliminary Data 2011, www.deewr.gov.au as were the retention statistics.
13
12
28
50.0
% of year 12 students
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The proportion of year 12 students studying advanced mathematics has stabilised at just above 10% in recent years. Since the year 12 population has increased, the numbers undertaking advanced mathematics has also increased. The proportion of students studying intermediate mathematics has continued a slow decline. However, according to Professor Barrington, who compiled the trends for mathematics studies, the fall in the proportion of intermediate mathematics students and the increase in the year 12 netted out to an increase of about 50 students. In other words, student numbers for intermediate mathematics have also stabilised. The proportion of students undertaking elementary mathematics has stabilised at about 49% but the numbers of students studying mathematics at this level is growing in line with the year 12 population. In summary, improvements in year 12 retention rates and stabilisation of the proportion of students undertaking advanced mathematics means that the previous decline in the pool of students most suited to engineering studies has been reversed. At the same time the numbers of year 12 students studying intermediate mathematics has stabilised. The overall pool of students studying this key enabling subject is now increasing. Tertiary engineering courses also draw on the science background of students. Unfortunately, statistics on the proportion of year 12 students undertaking science studies have not been updated and the latest statistics available are for 2007. Table 4.2 show the trends since 2001 six different year 12 science programs and Figure 4.2 illustrates the trends for two subjects most important for engineering studies, physics and chemistry, since 1991.
Table 4.2: Year 12 science participation (% of year 12 students) SUBJECT 2001 2002 2003 2004 Biology 25.4 24.7 25.1 25.2 Chemistry 17.8 17.1 17.6 18.2 Physics 16.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 Psychology 7.8 7.8 8.2 8.5 Geology 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 Other 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.2 Source: Ainley, Kos and Nicholas, ACER, 2008 2005 25.1 18.4 15.2 8.7 1.1 6.9 2006 25.1 18.1 14.6 9.2 1.0 6.9 2007 24.7 18.0 14.6 8.5 0.8 8.3
29
22
% of year 12 students
20
18
16
14
12 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
The proportion of year 12 students studying chemistry has stabilised at just over 18%. Providing this has been maintained in recent years, the increase in the year 12 population means that the number of year 12 graduates with chemistry would have increased. The proportion of year 12 students undertaking physics has fallen since 1991, despite occasional upwards fluctuations. There is not sufficient information available to indicate what has happened to the number of year 12 graduates with physics.
14
DEEWR, Undergraduate Applications, Offers and Acceptances 2010, June 2011, p8, www.deewr.gov.au
30
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 The difference between all applicants and eligible applicants is not great. In engineering there were 16,713 applicants in total compared to 15,757 eligible applicants. There are similar differences in the numbers of offers made and offers accepted.
Figure 4.3: Engineering university course applications, offers and acceptances
Applications 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 Offers Acceptances
Numbers
11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Overview Figure 4.3 shows the trends in eligible applications for places in engineering and related technologies courses from 2001 to 2010, the offers made to these applicants and the acceptance of offers of places. In 2001, there were 12,056 eligible applicants for places in engineering and related technologies courses, 5.7% of all eligible applications. There was little change through to and including 2005, but from then onwards the number of eligible applicants grew by 3,595 or 29.6% to be 15,757 in 2010. The offer rate, that is the proportion of eligible applicants that received an offer of a place, varied from a low of 85.2% in 2004 to a high of 93.1% in 2007. In 2010, the offer rate was 87.8%, the same as in 2009. The trend in actual offers made broadly reflects the trend in applications with some variability in the gap between the two reflecting the interaction between the credentials of individual applicants, the admission policies of individual universities and the relative location of applicants and universities responding with an offer. In the eight years from 2001 to 2008, the acceptance rate, that is the proportion of offers made that are accepted, fluctuated around 76%, but much higher acceptance rates are evident for 2009 (85.8%) and 2010 (86.1%). When applied to the trend in offers made a more variable trend in acceptances results that never-the-less reflects the upwards movements in applications and offers that has occurred in recent years. Acceptances reflect the wash-up of individual applicants applying for places at more than one university and, in some instances, for admission to more than one discipline. In summary, there has been an increase in interest in engineering courses from year 12 graduates. This is reflected by the increasing numbers of eligible applicants applying for places in engineering courses. There has been a measured response by universities with offers increasing in line with application numbers and to a small extent with proportionally more places. Acceptances of offers have been more variable but have increased significantly over the past five years.
31
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 How does the growth in engineering applications compared to other disciplines? In the past decade there has been strong growth in the numbers of Australians undertaking university courses. How does the increase in interest in engineering and related technologies courses compare to non-engineering disciplines? Figure 4.4 shows the trends in eligible applications for the two groups in index number form to facilitate comparison.
Figure 4.4: Applications for university engineering courses compared to applications for non-engineering courses
Engineering 135 130 125 Non-engineering
120 115 110 105 100 95 90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 4.4 shows that interest in engineering and related technologies courses lagged behind non-engineering courses for the first half of the last decade. But from 2006 onwards, the trend in engineering courses has outstripped interest in non-engineering courses by a significant relative margin. How do engineering acceptances compare to other disciplines? The key variable in the process is the number of places offered that is accepted. Figure 4.5 shows the trends in engineering and related technologies acceptances compared to the trend in non-engineering disciplines, again in index number form to facilitate comparison.
Fig 4.5: Acceptances of offers for university engineering courses compared to acceptances for non-engineering courses
Engineering 210 Non-engineering
190
170
150
130
110
90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
32
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 There has been encouraging growth in the actual number of engineering acceptances but, in relative terms, growth in engineering acceptances lags well behind the growth in nonengineering acceptances. Even stronger growth in applications, offers and acceptances of places in engineering is needed for engineering to keep pace with the rest of the tertiary sector. The relative standard of acceptances The growth in applications combined with higher offer rates in recent years has resulted in more students studying engineering than ever before. What has been the impact on the quality of engineering students compared to non-engineering students? Figure 4.6 shows the TES profile for engineering acceptances in 2010 compared to the corresponding profiles for non-engineering acceptances.
Figure 4.6: The TES profile for acceptances in engineering and related technologies in 2010 compared to non-engineering disciplines
Engineering 45.0 40.0 35.0 Non-engineering
% of acceptances
TES scores
Figure 4.7: The TES profile for acceptances in engineering and related technologies in 2009 and 2010
2009 45.0 40.0 35.0 2010
% of acceptances
TES Scores
More engineering students had high TES scores and fewer had low TES scores than was the case for non-engineering acceptances. The results in Figure 4.6 indicate that the quality of engineering students is high compared to non-engineering disciplines.
33
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 A related question is how has the standard of engineering acceptances changed over time? At this stage only statistics for 2009 and 2010 are available and the comparison in Figure 4.7 suggested a marginal improvement in the TES profile for engineering acceptances. Gender balance Between 2009 and 2010, male applications increased by 2.1%, but female applications fell by 3.9%, resulting in a combined outcome of 1.3% growth. The female share of applications fell from 13.4% in 2009 to 12.7% in 2010. Despite this change, universities maintained the female share of offers made in 2009 and 2010 at 14.6%. Offers to males increased by 1.9%, slightly less than the increase in applications and offers to females increased by 0.7% even though applications fell by 3.9%.
Figure 4.8: The female share of acceptances by students with TES over 90, 2008 to 2010
2008 80.0 70.0 60.0 2009 2010
Similarly, acceptances of offers maintained the female share of acceptances in 2009 and 2010 at 14.3%. Male acceptances increased by 1.8% and female acceptances by 1.1% for an overall outcome of 1.7% increase. These statistics suggest that university authorities are taking seriously the challenge of maintaining female shares of offers and acceptances. However, the task is difficult because insufficient applications for places in engineering and related technologies from females are received. In 2010, male acceptances in engineering and related technologies were 23.8% of all male acceptances with TES scores 90 and over. In contrast, only 4.6% of girls with TES scores over 90 accepted places in engineering and related technologies courses. More girls than boys now have TES scores 90 and there is keen competition between disciplines and institutions for the best students. Efforts to increase the number of acceptances of places in engineering and related technology courses based on the present gender poses serious risks to the quality of engineering students. Increasing the number of well credentialed boys faces the law of diminishing returns because so many are already accepting places. As Figure 4.8 shows, engineering and related technologies has one of the lowest female share of acceptances of any discipline. Status quo policies will simply perpetuate this.
34
Key Points
35
5.1 Introduction
For many years, universities have forwarded a wide range of statistics to the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR) to comply with higher education funding accountability arrangements. Over time an extensive data base on university education has developed. This chapter draws on statistics extracted by DEEWR on commencements in, enrolments in, and completions of, university courses in engineering at all levels for domestic students and overseas students. Domestic students are Australian citizens or permanent residents and graduates can take up positions in the Australian labour market without further official formality. Domestic students completing entry level courses in engineering are the main source of domestic additions to the supply of engineers. Domestic students completing post-graduate courses in engineering improve the quality of Australias supply of engineers. Overseas students are international students studying engineering in Australia on temporary student visas and are Australias export of engineering education services. Overseas students can join the Australian labour market, but only following the completion of immigration formalities leading to either permanent or temporary 457 visas. Past editions of the Statistical Overview have included time series statistics from 1994 onwards. Embedded in the time series was a discontinuity resulting from a change in the classification system for education statistics; the Australian Standard Classification of Education (ASCED), was adopted in 2001. Conceptually, ASCED was a major departure from earlier classification systems and while the ABS made available concurrence tables between the new and old systems, the conceptual differences could not be fully resolved in engineering, even at relatively high levels of aggregation. The longer time series provided in earlier editions established a before and after context in which the most recent statistics could be interpreted. This is no longer necessary because a decade of statistics has now been accumulated since the change. If they are required, statistics from 1994 to 2000 can be found in earlier editions.
Introduction
36
All domestic commencements Doctoral 534 614 615 687 550 486 519 498 586 Research masters 324 366 322 347 292 257 234 499 296 Coursework masters 798 1007 1007 964 876 943 1031 1128 1449 Other postgraduate 1093 998 1106 1017 1092 1039 955 1190 1305 Bachelors 10786 10278 10089 9910 9920 10288 11051 11290 12057 Associate degrees & diplomas 252 335 295 294 420 439 694 1026 1155 Other undergraduate 237 573 599 523 430 480 518 226 288 Total 14024 14171 14033 13742 13580 13932 15002 15857 17136 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
Table 5.2: Overseas students commencing courses in engineering & related technology Men Level Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total Women Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total 47 24 216 27 556 1 3 874 40 23 303 38 653 19 1 1077 50 25 407 20 716 1 17 1236 51 30 443 28 653 2 8 1215 50 40 437 35 669 45 10 1286 89 43 355 53 670 69 10 1289 95 54 427 52 766 65 19 1478 162 49 468 51 786 43 13 1572 225 61 520 49 926 70 15 1866 2001 190 97 1089 194 2818 16 2 4406 2002 186 117 1442 219 3206 58 9 5237 2003 207 133 2443 128 3564 26 46 6547 2004 213 173 2344 134 3283 40 34 6221 2005 222 137 2142 259 3109 104 41 6014 2006 272 135 1940 269 3184 95 63 5958 2007 336 144 2101 251 3523 411 34 6800 2008 413 131 2084 255 3679 403 50 7015 2009 579 144 2580 316 4385 596 45 8645
All overseas commencemenrs Doctoral 237 Research masters 121 Coursework masters 1305 Other postgraduate 221 Bachelors 3374 Associate degrees & diplomas 17 Other undergraduate 5 Total 5280 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
575 804 180 205 2552 3100 306 365 4465 5311 446 666 63 60 8587 10511
University commencements
37
575 804 180 205 2552 3100 306 365 4465 5311 446 666 63 60 8587 10511
All commencing students Doctoral 771 840 872 951 822 847 950 1073 1390 Research masters 445 506 480 550 469 435 432 679 501 Coursework masters 2103 2752 3857 3751 3455 3238 3559 3680 4549 Other postgraduate 1314 1255 1254 1179 1386 1361 1258 1496 1670 Bachelors 14160 14137 14369 13846 13698 14142 15340 15755 17368 Associate degrees & diplomas 269 412 322 336 569 603 1170 1472 1821 Other undergraduate 242 583 662 565 481 553 571 289 348 Total 19304 20485 21816 21178 20880 21179 23280 24444 27647 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
Table 5.4: Students commencing courses in engineering & related technology, by gender Men Level 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Doctoral 596 658 699 750 659 650 754 793 1022 Research masters 369 409 379 442 369 346 323 512 389 Coursework masters 1735 2291 3283 3139 2869 2699 2954 3000 3791 Other postgraduate 1100 1042 1075 984 1160 1110 1050 1229 1400 Bachelors 11966 11998 12231 11857 11772 12097 12983 13377 14685 Associate degrees & diplomas 254 357 301 325 482 490 1025 1325 1637 Other undergraduate 210 528 593 530 407 457 455 187 217 Total 16230 17283 18561 18027 17718 17849 19544 20423 23141 Women Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total 175 76 368 214 2194 15 32 3074 182 97 461 213 2139 55 55 3202 173 101 574 179 2138 21 69 3255 201 108 612 195 1989 11 35 3151 163 100 586 226 1926 87 74 3162 197 89 539 251 2045 113 96 3330 196 109 605 208 2357 145 116 3736 280 167 680 267 2378 147 102 4021 368 112 758 270 2683 184 131 4506
All commencing students Doctoral 771 840 872 951 822 847 950 1073 1390 Research masters 445 506 480 550 469 435 432 679 501 Coursework masters 2103 2752 3857 3751 3455 3238 3559 3680 4549 Other postgraduate 1314 1255 1254 1179 1386 1361 1258 1496 1670 Bachelors 14160 14137 14369 13846 13698 14142 15340 15755 17368 Associate degrees & diplomas 269 412 322 336 569 603 1170 1472 1821 Other undergraduate 242 583 662 565 481 553 571 289 348 Total 19304 20485 21816 21178 20880 21179 23280 24444 27647 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
University commencements
38
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Table 5.2 is a version of Table 5.1 for overseas students. In the past decade the number of overseas students commencing courses in engineering and related technologies at Australian universities has almost doubled from 5,280 in 2001 to 10,511 in 2009. Annual growth varied considerably with several years of contraction contrasting with very strong expansion in other years. The last year was one of expansion with annual growth of 18.3%. The strong interest of overseas students in coursework masters degrees has meant that share of post-graduate commencements has been higher for overseas students (42.6%) than for domestic students (21.2%). In 2009, there were 3,100 overseas student commencements in coursework masters degrees, over twice as many as domestic commencements (1,449). Although the female share is higher for overseas commencements than for domestic commencements, the difference is small, and the female shares in engineering courses are well below other disciplines, including science. Tables 5.3 and 5.4 are two different aggregations of Tables 5.1 and 5.2. Table 5.3 shows the relative scale of domestic and overseas students in course commencements, while Table 5.4 focuses on the relative size of male and female commencements.
39
Table 5.5: Domestic students enrolled in engineering & related technology courses Men Level 2001 Doctoral 1989 Research masters 778 Coursework masters 1459 Other postgraduate 1509 Bachelors 32932 Associate degrees & diplomas 674 Other undergraduate 247 Total 39588 Women Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total 562 159 314 327 5896 10 34 7302 562 158 343 346 5839 21 61 7330 599 173 376 334 5674 26 60 7242 636 187 390 344 5416 7 34 7014 635 184 388 358 5115 17 72 6769 621 162 429 405 5069 19 102 6807 630 142 460 378 5298 150 11 7069 639 131 505 407 5574 212 109 7577 655 156 538 396 5874 242 136 7997 2002 2058 810 1713 1504 32872 705 580 40242 2003 2239 741 1874 1682 32769 661 579 40545 2004 2365 747 1905 1662 32405 680 526 40290 2005 2364 673 1880 1709 31994 720 414 39754 2006 2314 635 1884 1717 32553 872 450 40425 2007 2287 586 2076 1634 33759 1261 449 42052 2008 2208 491 2259 1715 35116 1687 172 43648 2009 2211 561 2626 1689 36852 2178 210 46327
All domestic enrollments Doctoral 2551 Research masters 937 Coursework masters 1773 Other postgraduate 1836 Bachelors 38828 Associate degrees & diplomas 684 Other undergraduate 281 Total 46890 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
Table 5.6: Overseas students enrolled in engineering & related technology courses Men Level Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total Women Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total 134 38 379 43 1394 2 4 1994 137 47 457 53 1682 20 1 2397 157 49 660 35 1919 34 18 2872 193 54 758 34 2025 34 10 3108 210 81 803 50 2061 52 12 3269 263 90 682 66 2125 114 12 3352 310 112 690 59 2284 172 20 3647 423 111 861 65 2449 117 14 4040 567 126 934 65 2645 99 15 4451 2001 560 197 1647 278 6988 30 2 9702 2002 617 213 2193 332 7566 79 12 11012 2003 704 232 3674 219 8287 63 53 13232 2004 791 306 4051 208 8736 83 42 14217 2005 901 320 4109 335 9100 137 48 14950 2006 1001 338 3662 359 9346 167 72 14945 2007 1113 334 3743 332 10257 706 36 16521 2008 1284 309 4065 345 11414 760 54 18231 2009 1620 297 4532 406 12471 963 46 20335
All overseas enrollments Doctoral 694 Research masters 235 Coursework masters 2026 Other postgraduate 321 Bachelors 8382 Associate degrees & diplomas 32 Other undergraduate 6 Total 11696 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
40
Table 5.7: Students enrolled in engineering & related technology courses, by country of domicile Domestic Level 2001 Doctoral 2551 Research masters 937 Coursework masters 1773 Other postgraduate 1836 Bachelors 38828 Associate degrees & diplomas 684 Other undergraduate 281 Total 46890 Overseas Doctoral 694 Research masters 235 Coursework masters 2026 Other postgraduate 321 Bachelors 8382 Associate degrees & diplomas 32 Other undergraduate 6 Total 11696 All students enrolled Doctoral 3245 Research masters 1172 Coursework masters 3799 Other postgraduate 2157 Bachelors 47210 Associate degrees & diplomas 716 Other undergraduate 287 Total 58586 Source: Data provided by DEEWR 754 260 2650 385 9248 99 13 13409 861 281 4334 254 10206 97 71 16104 984 360 4809 242 10761 117 52 17325 1111 401 4912 385 11161 189 60 18219 1264 428 4344 425 11471 281 84 18297 1423 446 4433 391 12541 878 56 20168 1707 420 4926 410 13863 877 68 22271 2187 423 5466 471 15116 1062 61 24786 2002 2620 968 2056 1850 38711 726 641 47572 2003 2838 914 2250 2016 38443 687 639 47787 2004 3001 934 2295 2006 37821 687 560 47304 2005 2999 857 2268 2067 37109 737 486 46523 2006 2935 797 2313 2122 37622 891 552 47232 2007 2917 728 2536 2012 39057 1411 460 49121 2008 2847 622 2764 2122 40690 1899 281 51225 2009 2866 717 3164 2085 42726 2420 346 54324
Table 5.8: Students enrolled in engineering & related technology courses, by gender Men Level Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total Women Doctoral 696 Research masters 197 Coursework masters 693 Other postgraduate 370 Bachelors 7290 Associate degrees & diplomas 12 Other undergraduate 38 Total 9296 All enrolled students Doctoral 3245 Research masters 1172 Coursework masters 3799 Other postgraduate 2157 Bachelors 47210 Associate degrees & diplomas 716 Other undergraduate 287 Total 58586 Source: Data provided by DEEWR 699 205 800 399 7521 41 62 9727 756 222 1036 369 7593 60 78 10114 829 241 1148 378 7441 41 44 10122 845 265 1191 408 7176 69 84 10038 884 252 1111 471 7194 133 114 10159 940 254 1150 437 7582 322 31 10716 1062 242 1366 472 8023 329 123 11617 1222 282 1472 461 8519 341 151 12448 2001 2549 975 3106 1787 39920 704 249 49290 2002 2675 1023 3906 1836 40438 784 592 51254 2003 2943 973 5548 1901 41056 724 632 53777 2004 3156 1053 5956 1870 41141 763 568 54507 2005 3265 993 5989 2044 41094 857 462 54704 2006 3315 973 5546 2076 41899 1039 522 55370 2007 3400 920 5819 1966 44016 1967 485 58573 2008 3492 800 6324 2060 46530 2447 226 61879 2009 3831 858 7158 2095 49323 3141 256 66662
41
42
Table 5.9: Domestic students completing courses in engineering & related technology Men Level Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total Women Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total 63 28 107 65 1027 5 4 1299 65 33 113 56 968 10 13 1258 89 28 112 73 984 15 6 1307 88 25 107 82 975 9 1 1287 96 31 114 65 948 7 5 1266 98 34 89 62 964 6 3 1256 110 31 138 100 855 27 4 1265 156 25 126 110 893 30 0 1340 102 18 139 111 902 29 0 1301 2001 261 119 529 339 5034 162 108 6552 2002 317 114 511 275 4753 176 279 6425 2003 333 120 551 330 4847 141 206 6528 2004 335 125 538 326 5005 115 443 6887 2005 357 102 521 297 4732 134 168 6311 2006 390 105 487 348 5062 118 218 6728 2007 410 100 548 347 4938 181 156 6680 2008 541 101 564 413 5186 206 0 7011 2009 380 81 649 484 5161 305 0 7060
All domestic completions Doctoral 324 Research masters 147 Coursework masters 636 Other postgraduate 404 Bachelors 6061 Associate degrees & diplomas 167 Other undergraduate 112 Total 7851 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
Table 5.10: Overseas students completing courses in engineering & related technology Men Level 2001 Doctoral 78 Research masters 45 Coursework masters 718 Other postgraduate 91 Bachelors 1373 Associate degrees & diplomas 17 Other undergraduate 1 Total 2323 Women Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total 19 15 198 15 285 0 0 532 15 5 201 22 324 0 1 568 23 11 275 24 379 10 11 733 24 14 332 16 426 25 2 839 31 16 390 37 438 7 5 924 35 22 291 31 439 43 5 866 44 21 293 31 454 82 1 926 32 25 403 46 548 81 5 1140 45 22 440 41 474 32 3 1057 2002 84 36 870 128 1424 36 4 2582 2003 86 35 1441 120 1618 25 41 3366 2004 127 59 1600 101 1794 33 10 3724 2005 154 59 1909 155 1958 42 13 4290 2006 173 104 1539 206 1904 52 28 4006 2007 207 75 1607 179 1836 219 8 4131 2008 152 76 1785 194 2036 306 11 4560 2009 181 64 1906 200 2115 290 15 4771
All overseas completions Doctoral 97 Research masters 60 Coursework masters 916 Other postgraduate 106 Bachelors 1658 Associate degrees & diplomas 17 Other undergraduate 1 Total 2855 Source: Data provided by DEEWR
43
Table 5.11: Students completing courses in engineering & related technology, by country of domicile Domestic Level 2001 Doctoral 324 Research masters 147 Coursework masters 636 Other postgraduate 404 Bachelors 6061 Associate degrees & diplomas 167 Other undergraduate 112 Total 7851 Overseas Doctoral 97 Research masters 60 Coursework masters 916 Other postgraduate 106 Bachelors 1658 Associate degrees & diplomas 17 Other undergraduate 1 Total 2855 All student completions Doctoral 421 Research masters 207 Coursework masters 1552 Other postgraduate 510 Bachelors 7719 Associate degrees & diplomas 184 Other undergraduate 113 Total 10706 99 41 1071 150 1748 36 5 3150 109 46 1716 144 1997 35 52 4099 151 73 1932 117 2220 58 12 4563 185 75 2299 192 2396 49 18 5214 208 126 1830 237 2343 95 33 4872 251 96 1900 210 2290 301 9 5057 184 101 2188 240 2584 387 16 5700 226 86 2346 241 2589 322 18 5828 2002 382 147 624 331 5721 186 292 7683 2003 422 148 663 403 5831 156 212 7835 2004 423 150 645 408 5980 124 444 8174 2005 453 133 635 362 5680 141 173 7577 2006 488 139 576 410 6026 124 221 7984 2007 520 131 686 447 5793 208 160 7945 2008 697 126 690 523 6079 236 0 8351 2009 482 99 788 595 6063 338 0 8365
Table 5.12: Students completing courses in engineering & related Technology, by gender Men Level Doctoral Research masters Coursework masters Other postgraduate Bachelors Associate degrees & diplomas Other undergraduate Total Women Doctoral 82 Research masters 43 Coursework masters 305 Other postgraduate 80 Bachelors 1312 Associate degrees & diplomas 5 Other undergraduate 4 Total 1831 All student completions Doctoral 421 Research masters 207 Coursework masters 1552 Other postgraduate 510 Bachelors 7719 Associate degrees & diplomas 184 Other undergraduate 113 Total 10706 Source: Data provided by DEEWR 80 38 314 78 1292 10 14 1826 112 39 387 97 1363 25 17 2040 112 39 439 98 1401 34 3 2126 127 47 504 102 1386 14 10 2190 133 56 380 93 1403 49 8 2122 154 52 431 131 1309 109 5 2191 188 50 529 156 1441 111 5 2480 147 40 579 152 1376 61 3 2358 2001 339 164 1247 430 6407 179 109 8875 2002 401 150 1381 403 6177 212 283 9007 2003 419 155 1992 450 6465 166 247 9894 2004 462 184 2138 427 6799 148 453 10611 2005 511 161 2430 452 6690 176 181 10601 2006 563 209 2026 554 6966 170 246 10734 2007 617 175 2155 526 6774 400 164 10811 2008 693 177 2349 607 7222 512 11 11571 2009 561 145 2555 684 7276 595 15 11831
44
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 from 9.6% to 14.9% of all domestic doctoral completions and the corresponding range for research masters degrees was 10.3% to 11.9%.
Figure 5.1: Domestic completions in selected engineering courses compared to corresponding completions in all disciplines
Doctorates 16.0 Research Masters Coursework Masters Bachelors All Courses
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 5.2: Overseas completions in selected engineering courses compared to corresponding completions in all disciplines
Doctorates 40.0 Research Masters Coursework Masters Bachelors All Courses
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 5.2 illustrates the trends in the overseas student completion of engineering and related technologies courses relative to completions of all courses by overseas students. The overseas student engineering shares for all course completions are a little higher than the corresponding domestic student completions shares. Although there has been very strong growth in completions of coursework masters degrees in engineering by overseas students, the engineering share of these courses is in line with the overall overseas share. In other words, the growth of completions for these courses is not unique to engineering. Although the absolute numbers of graduates are modest, the engineering and related technologies shares of overseas completions of doctorates and research masters are well over twice the overseas shares of all completions. It is evident that research programs leading to doctorates and masters degrees in engineering are a particular feature of Australian university engineering faculties.
45
6.1 Introduction
This chapter examines in more detail annual graduations from entry level university and TAFE courses in engineering. Only statistics relating to domestic student are considered. As noted earlier, overseas students that graduate from entry level courses can only join the Australian labour market, but only following immigration formalities. Statistics on migrant engineers are considered in chapter 7. The Tables that follow are compiled using statistics at the 4-digit ASCED level. The descriptions used for these statistical categories do not always line up with familiar engineering nomenclature. To facilitate the use of the Tables, the 6-digit engineering specialisations included in the Tables are:
Key points
46
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Process and Resource Engineering includes o Chemical Engineering o Mining Engineering o Materials Engineering o Food Processing Technology Mechanical and Industrial Engineering includes o Mechanical Engineers o Industrial engineers Civil Engineering includes o Civil Engineers o Construction Engineers o Building Services Engineers o Water and Sanitary Engineers o Transport Engineers o Geotechnical Engineers o Ocean Engineers Electrical and Electronic Engineering includes o Electrical Engineers o Electronic Engineers o Computer Engineers o Communication Technologies Aerospace Engineering includes o Aerospace Engineers o Aircraft Maintenance Engineers Maritime Engineering includes o Maritime Engineers o Maritime Construction Engineers Other Engineering includes o Environmental Engineers o Biomedical Engineers
47
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 engineering; there were 25 electronic engineering completions but only 3 electrical engineering completions and the balance were in generalist categories. All other groups in the Table had small completion numbers.
Table 6.1: Domestic students completing three year bachelors degrees in engineering Men ASCED 0300 0301 0303 0305 0307 0309 0313 0315 0317 0399
Specialisation Engineering & Related Technologies Manufacturing Engineering & Technology Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering & Technology Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology Civil Engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology Aerospace Engineering & Technology Martime Engineering & Technology Other Engineering & Technology Total
Women 0300 0301 0303 0305 0307 0309 0313 0315 0317 0399
Engineering & Related Technologies Manufacturing Engineering & Technology Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering & Technology Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology Civil Engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology Aerospace Engineering & Technology Maritime Engineering & Technology Other Engineering & Technology Total
18 2 18 0 3 0 12 14 1 20 88
4 3 20 0 3 2 9 22 1 13 77
12 5 17 0 2 4 6 19 0 10 75
7 4 15 0 1 0 18 23 0 8 76
13 13 17 0 1 3 56 32 1 7 143
3 10 21 0 2 12 41 29 0 14 132
7 8 12 0 1 1 34 31 0 5 99
1 24 19 0 1 15 24 39 0 9 132
4 29 10 1 0 0 29 25 0 7 105
All domestic graduations 0300 Engineering & Related Technologies 0301 Manufacturing Engineering & Technology 0303 Process & Resource Engineering 0305 Automotive Engineering & Technology 0307 Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology 0309 Civil Engineering 0313 Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology 0315 Aerospace Engineering & Technology 0317 Maritime Engineering & Technology 0399 Other Engineering & Technology Total Source: Data supplied by DEEWR
The female share of three year bachelors degrees in engineering has been increasing in recent years reversing a downwards trend evident earlier in the decade. In 2009 the female share was 20.3%. Cumulatively, since 2001, universities have produced 5,432 engineering technologist graduates (4,832 cumulatively since 2002).
48
Specialisation Engineering & Related Technologies Manufacturing Engineering & Technology Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering & Technology Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology Civil Engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology Aerospace Engineering & Technology Martime Engineering & Technology Other Engineering & Technology Total
Women 0300 0301 0303 0305 0307 0309 0313 0315 0317 0399
Engineering & Related Technologies Manufacturing Engineering & Technology Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering & Technology Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology Civil Engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology Aerospace Engineering & Technology Maritime Engineering & Technology Other Engineering & Technology Total
All domestic graduations 0300 Engineering & Related Technologies 0301 Manufacturing Engineering & Technology 0303 Process & Resource Engineering 0305 Automotive Engineering & Technology 0307 Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology 0309 Civil Engineering 0313 Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology 0315 Aerospace Engineering & Technology 0317 Maritime Engineering & Technology 0399 Other Engineering & Technology Total Source: Data supplied by DEEWR
Table 6.3: Domestic students completing four year bachelors double degrees in engineering Men ASCED 0300 0301 0303 0305 0307 0309 0313 0315 0317 0399
Specialisation Engineering & Related Technologies Manufacturing Engineering & Technology Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering & Technology Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology Civil Engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology Aerospace Engineering & Technology Martime Engineering & Technology Other Engineering & Technology Total
Women 0300 0301 0303 0305 0307 0309 0313 0315 0317 0399
Engineering & Related Technologies Manufacturing Engineering & Technology Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering & Technology Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology Civil Engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology Aerospace Engineering & Technology Maritime Engineering & Technology Other Engineering & Technology Total
29 2 24 0 37 28 56 4 0 57 237
27 4 55 0 21 23 43 2 0 35 210
51 3 27 0 18 28 55 1 0 48 231
49 4 55 0 22 21 61 3 0 35 250
104 0 26 0 12 23 42 4 0 32 243
79 0 64 0 16 21 45 8 0 53 286
72 1 59 0 18 22 21 5 0 49 247
69 0 50 0 13 19 22 8 0 66 247
74 4 33 0 26 23 25 13 0 33 231
All domestic graduations 0300 Engineering & Related Technologies 0301 Manufacturing Engineering & Technology 0303 Process & Resource Engineering 0305 Automotive Engineering & Technology 0307 Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology 0309 Civil Engineering 0313 Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology 0315 Aerospace Engineering & Technology 0317 Maritime Engineering & Technology 0399 Other Engineering & Technology Total Source: Data supplied by DEEWR
49
Table 6.4: Domestic students completing four year bachelors degrees, including double degrees, in engineering Men ASCED Specialisation 0300 Engineering & Related Technologies 0301 Manufacturing Engineering & Technology 0303 Process & Resource Engineering 0305 Automotive Engineering & Technology 0307 Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology 0309 Civil Engineering 0313 Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology 0315 Aerospace Engineering & Technology 0317 Martime Engineering & Technology 0399 Other Engineering & Technology Total Women 0300 Engineering & Related Technologies 0301 Manufacturing Engineering & Technology 0303 Process & Resource Engineering 0305 Automotive Engineering & Technology 0307 Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology 0309 Civil Engineering 0313 Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology 0315 Aerospace Engineering & Technology 0317 Maritime Engineering & Technology 0399 Other Engineering & Technology Total All domestic graduations 0300 Engineering & Related Technologies 0301 Manufacturing Engineering & Technology 0303 Process & Resource Engineering 0305 Automotive Engineering & Technology 0307 Mechanical & Industrial Engineering & Technology 0309 Civil Engineering 0313 Electrical & Electronic Engineering & Technology 0315 Aerospace Engineering & Technology 0317 Maritime Engineering & Technology 0399 Other Engineering & Technology Total Source: Data supplied by DEEWR
Completions of four year bachelors degrees in engineering increased from 3,970 in 2008 to 4,081 in 2009. At the same time completions of double degrees that included a four year bachelors degree in engineering fell slightly from 1,320 to 1,303. Overall, the total number of completions suitable for acceptance as professional engineers increased from 5,290 in 2008 to 5,384 in 2009, an increase of 1.8%. Although the annual increase was modest, it continues a trend that began in 2005 when completions were at a decade low of 4,553. Compared to this figure, the current level of completions is 18.3% higher. The female share of professional engineer level completions has been generally higher than the female share of the engineering labour force. However, this share peaked during the first three years of the decade and since then has slowly fallen. In 2009, the female share was 14.2%, well below the 17.2% in 2001. Analysing trends in entry level completions for professional engineering specialisations is complicated by the rapid rise of completions in the two general categories; engineering and related technologies increased from 272 to 880 in 2009 and other engineering and technology increased from 874 to 1,025. The share of the two categories combined increased from 21.8% in 2008 to 35.4% in 2009. For some time civil engineers have figured at the core of engineering skills shortages. Table 6.4 shows that a key factor in this situation was that the number of professional level civil engineer completions trended downwards from 885 in 2001 to 572 in 2005, a fall of 35.4%. Since then the trend has reversed and by 2008, completions had exceeded the 2001 level with a further increase in 2009. Since the 2005 trough, annual completions are now 60.8% higher. The female share of professional civil engineer completions is higher than the average share for these qualifications but has also trended downwards from 19.0% in 2001 to 15.3% in 2009.
50
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 At the beginning of the decade the largest number of professional level completions was for electrical and electronic engineering and technology. In 2001 there were 1,590 completions and increased slowly to 1,683 in 2004. Since then completions in this specialisation have rapidly trended downwards so that by 2009 completions had halved to 824. The female share of this specialisation was below the average for professional level completions in 2001 but as completions in the category increased the share also increased from 12.3% in 2001 to 14.3% in 2004. Since then the female share has fallen rapidly to 8.9%. Cumulatively, since 2001, universities have produced 45,880 graduate professional engineers (40,614 since 2002).
51
0 229 33 0 32 17 62 10 6 8 397
0 263 25 0 37 16 51 18 9 4 423
0 294 48 1 33 14 34 15 4 9 452
0 389 55 1 29 26 70 7 1 46 624
0 421 17 0 24 29 38 9 2 52 592
0 461 16 3 15 35 33 9 3 16 591
0 432 27 1 18 40 50 9 0 17 594
Table 6.6: Completions of diplomas and advanced diplomas in engineering from universities Men SPECIALISAT ION Engineering & Related Tech nfd Manufacturing Engineering Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering Mechanical & Industrial Engineering Civil engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering Aerospace Engineering Maritime Engineering Other Engineering Total Women Engineering & Related Tech nfd Manufacturing Engineering Process & Resource Engineering Automotive Engineering Mechanical & Industrial Engineering Civil engineering Electrical & Electronic Engineering Aerospace Engineering Maritime Engineering Other Engineering TOTAL 2002 11 7 0 0 21 15 29 8 63 11 165 2003 5 5 0 0 10 14 14 2 71 4 125 2004 13 0 13 0 7 7 16 0 46 4 106 2005 14 0 0 0 5 12 13 0 75 9 128 2006 9 0 0 0 3 7 10 0 62 25 116 2007 17 0 0 0 7 8 18 1 62 64 177 2008 21 0 0 0 6 8 17 0 54 96 202 2009 28 0 1 0 14 1 10 27 54 174 309
0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 7
0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 4 12
1 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 6
0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 2 7
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 5
3 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 10 22
4 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 3 19 30
0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 3 19 27
All domestic graduations Engineering & Related Tech nfd 11 Manufacturing Engineering 7 Process & Resource Engineering 0 Automotive Engineering 0 Mechanical & Industrial Engineering 22 Civil engineering 16 Electrical & Electronic Engineering 30 Aerospace Engineering 9 Maritime Engineering 65 Other Engineering 12 Total 172 Source: Statistics provided by DEEWR
5 7 0 0 10 16 16 2 73 8 137
14 0 13 0 8 10 17 0 46 4 112
14 0 0 0 5 14 14 0 77 11 135
9 0 0 0 3 8 10 0 64 27 121
20 0 0 0 7 8 22 5 63 74 199
25 0 1 0 6 8 20 0 57 115 232
28 0 1 0 15 2 10 30 57 193 336
52
0 229 0 0 33 18 63 11 8 9 371
0 265 0 0 37 18 53 18 11 8 410
1 294 0 1 34 17 35 15 4 9 410
0 389 0 1 29 28 71 7 3 48 576
0 421 0 0 24 30 38 9 4 54 580
3 461 0 3 15 35 37 13 4 26 597
4 432 1 1 18 40 53 9 3 36 597
28 741 153 164 464 268 1229 119 165 260 3591
Table 6.8: The flow of new domestic graduates in engineering from educational institutions Men Engineering associates Engineering technologist Professional engineers Total Women Engineering associates Engineering technologist Professional engineers Total 2002 2897 475 4098 7470 2003 2915 449 4224 7588 2004 2681 441 4393 7515 2005 3054 583 3812 7449 2006 2935 679 4237 7851 2007 3116 475 4324 7915 2008 3564 501 4546 8611 2009 2936 413 4619 7968
All domestic graduates Engineering associate 3268 3325 Engineering technologist 552 524 Professional engineers 4944 5103 Total 8764 8952 Source: Statistics supplied by DEEWR and NCVER
53
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
Census statistics show that 9.8% of the engineering labour force are women. Figure 6.1 shows that new graduations for all components of the engineering team have had female shares well above the census figure. However, while the female share of new engineering technology graduates has been increasing, this is the smallest group of graduates with limited impact on the overall share. The female share of new engineering associate graduates rose sharply during the early years of the decade but has behaved more erratically in recent years. Unfortunately, the trend in the female share of new professional engineers, the largest component, is downwards. Chapter 4 showed that interest by females in university engineering courses has waned. Universities were very aggressive in their offers to females so that the acceptance outcome was a small increase. To reverse the trend for new female professional engineers much more will be necessary to persuade women year 12 students that engineering is an interesting and acceptable career. Caveats aside, Figure 6.1 provides evidence that the female share of the engineering profession is increasing, albeit slowly and haphazardly.
54
7. SKILLED MIGRATION
Key Points
Engineers Australia assesses the engineering qualifications held by prospective applicants for permanent migration visa in line with the competencies Engineers Australia uses to accredit engineering degrees at Australian universities. Temporary migrants do not undergo skills assessment. There have been far reaching changes to Australias skilled migration policies in the past year that shift the responsibility for dealing with short term skills shortages to employers who may use temporary 457 migrants or permanent migrants to fill actual vacancies. Independent skilled permanent migration is governed by a revised skilled occupations list (SOL) that will be regularly reviewed. At present most engineering occupations are on the SOL. Visa applications are now assessed in a queue; employer sponsored applicants are assessed first, followed by State and Territory sponsored applicants and the independent applicants. The permanent immigration of qualified engineers continues to increase despite increasing engineering unemployment due to the GFC. In 2009-10, there were 6,712 permanent visas granted to engineers. This number exceeded domestic bachelors qualified graduates that year by about 14%. Temporary migration of engineers responded with a lag to the increase in engineering unemployment caused by the GFC and has fallen in each of the past two years.
15
www.engineersaustralia.org.au
Key Points
55
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 Qualifications may treated as accredited qualifications if they are: Australian qualifications; Accredited under the Washington Accord which is an agreement between international engineering accreditation bodies16 to recognise the equivalence of each others undergraduate qualifications for professional engineers (the equivalent of an Australian four year bachelors degree); Accredited under the Sydney Accord which is an agreement between international engineering accreditation bodies17 to recognise the equivalence of each others undergraduate educational qualifications for engineering technologists (the equivalent of an Australian three year bachelor degree). Qualifications that are not accredited can be recognised through a competency assessment process in which applicants are asked to demonstrate that their engineering knowledge and skills meet the competency standards for the engineering occupation they intend their visa application to relate to. These competency standards are available on Engineers Australias web-site.
Engineers who come to Australia on temporary 457 visas do not have their qualifications assessed by an assessment authority. Provided that their visa application is accompanied by an employers acceptance of their qualifications, this is deemed sufficient support to fill the position offered by the employer. In the event that the holder of a 457 temporary visa wishes to apply for a permanent migration visa, their qualifications will need to be assessed in the same way as all other applications for permanent migration.
56
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 o o for permanent entry under the points tested General Skilled Migration program, numbers are capped annually international students who complete courses in Australia under student visas can apply for a temporary visa that allows them 18 months to develop their occupational skills, numbers are not capped
The new migration policy clearly distinguishes between short term skill shortages and longer term supplementation of Australias skilled worker base. The demand side visa programs are intended to allow employers to quickly deal with short term skills shortages by sponsoring skilled migrants. Although, employers can access both permanent and temporary visa routes to sponsor skilled migrants, the policy recognises that most short term skill shortages are likely to be met through temporary migration. In the event that the demand for skilled workers becomes more enduring, employers have the option of sponsoring a known and tried temporary worker for a permanent migration visa. Recent statistics cited by DIAC suggest that over 80% of permanent visas granted under employer sponsored arrangements were individuals resident and working in Australia on temporary work visas. Employer sponsorship of skilled migrants is intended to ensure that new migrants are ensured a job in locations where employers have jobs available and with the skills that employers require. The supply aspect of the policy comprises independent skilled migrants coming to Australia without any immediate employer sponsorship. In the past independent skilled migration was under-pinned by skills shortage arguments. This is no longer the case and all short term skills shortage labour requirements must be met through employer sponsorship. The rationale for independent skilled migration has changed and is now related to longer term labour market requirements and the capacity of the education system to meet long term skills needs. The governing mechanism is a new Skilled Occupations List (SOL) and a new skilled migration points test: the SOL is prepared by Skills Australia, an independent agency in the DEEWR portfolio, responsible for providing advice to the Government on the future directions and funding of Australias higher education and vocational education systems the criteria used to identify occupations on the list emphasize high value to the Australian economy, long training lead times and take a medium to longer term perspective of requirements relative to education outcomes and do not consider short term arguments about skills shortages the new points test, incorporates radical changes, and emphasizes the value of a prospective migrants qualifications, english language capacity and both Australian and overseas work experience. Independent skilled migrants can only qualify for a permanent visa if the occupation they are applying for is on the SOL and if they pass the points test. Nearly all engineering occupations are included on the SOL. Many other professional and trades occupations that have been in short supply are also on the SOL, but many occupations formerly on the list of occupations in demand are not on the SOL. The SOL recognises the connection between the level of demand for a particular skills group and the education systems capacity to meet that demand over the long term. In other words, as domestic entry level engineering completions grow closer to the level of demand, some engineering occupations may no longer be included on the SOL. From time to time regional skills requirements develop in the States and Territories in occupations not on the SOL. The new skilled migration policy provides flexibility to cater for
57
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 these situations. Each State and Territory has been requested to prepare a State/Territory Migration Plan setting out arguments specific to their jurisdiction. Providing these arguments are based on acceptable research evidence, State/Territory Plans will be agreed by the Federal Minister and the additional occupations required by States and Territories will become supplementary to the SOL in the jurisdiction concerned. Each occupation on the SOL is subject to a cap within an overall annual cap for permanent migration visas. The annual cap is set by Cabinet on the advice of the Minister for Immigration. Once the annual cap is set, the Minister can adjust the mix between occupations by setting caps on some, or all, occupations.
Table 7.1: Immigration of engineers Permanent temporary Total visas 457 visas immigration 2000-01 1271 na na 2001-02 1411 na na 2002-03 1898 na na 2003-04 2372 1250 3622 2004-05 3532 1810 5342 2005-06 3941 2970 6911 2006-07 4120 3510 7630 2007-08 4412 4580 8992 2008-09 5198 4030 9228 2009-10 6712 2408 9120 Source: To 2003-04, Birrell, Sheridan and Rapson; since 2004-5 & 457 visas, DIAC Year
Permanent migration
58
Temporary visas
New graduates
10000
8000
Numbers
6000
4000
2000
The annual migration of skilled engineers has been increasing much faster than the annual flow of new graduates. The migrant engineers in Figure 7.1 are almost exclusively degree qualified engineers with only a hand-full on diploma qualified engineers. In 2009-10, the number of permanent migrant engineers exceeded the flow of degree qualified engineers from Australian universities by a sizable margin. Even if instead of using the average of the past three years to estimate the number of 2010 graduates was replaced by the peak in graduate numbers (5,923 in 2008), this conclusion would be the case.
59
8.1 Introduction
This chapter reviews non-official statistics that provide useful insights on several aspects of the engineering workforce. The statistics used are from the December editions of the twice annual salaries surveys conducted by the Association of Professional Engineers, Scientists and Managers, Australia (APESMA)18. These surveys have been undertaken since 1974 and use a random sample drawn from members of APESMA and Engineers Australia19. Each edition provides a detailed account of movements in salaries segmented by engineering discipline, engineering responsibility level and economic sector. Trends in several of the variables available have been selected to overcome gaps in official statistics collections.
APESMA, Professional Engineer Remuneration Survey Reports, December 1997 to 2007, www.apesma.asn.au 19 A subsidiary of Engineers Australia, Engineers Media, also conducts a salaries survey, but this commenced in 2004 and does not provide a time series of sufficient length. This survey samples businesses that hire engineers rather than individuals and has provided useful data on engineering skill shortages. See www.engineersmedia.org.au
18
Key points
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THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 APESMA statistics relate to professional engineers. Unlike Engineers Australia, APESMA does not recognise the engineering team as defined in chapter 1. This difference imposes an important caveat on the trends discussed that should be borne in mind when issues raised in this chapter are compared to other chapters.
20
61
Table 8.1: The average ages of private sector engineers Year Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 1997 25.0 31.0 36.0 41.0 43.0 1998 25.0 29.0 36.0 42.0 43.0 1999 26.0 29.0 36.0 42.0 44.0 2000 25.0 30.0 36.0 42.0 44.0 2001 26.0 29.0 35.0 42.0 43.0 2002 25.8 30.3 35.6 43.3 43.2 2003 26.0 29.7 35.3 42.9 43.9 2004 26.5 30.5 36.4 42.4 42.3 2005 25.2 29.5 36.3 43.8 43.9 2006 25.1 29.4 37.8 44.3 46.6 2007 24.7 28.1 37.4 44.6 47.5 2008 24.9 29.5 37.6 45.3 48.3 2009 24.3 29.8 39.0 44.2 49.6 2010 24.0 28.0 36.0 45.0 50.0 Source: APESMA, Professional Engineer Remuneration Survey Reports Table 8.2: The average ages of public sector engineers Year Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 > Level 5 1997 27.0 38.0 42.0 45.0 46.0 49.0 1998 27.0 35.0 42.0 46.0 47.0 49.0 1999 29.0 36.0 42.0 45.0 48.0 49.0 2000 28.0 37.0 42.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 2001 29.0 37.0 41.0 47.0 48.0 50.0 2002 29.2 39.7 41.5 47.2 48.2 50.0 2003 28.4 37.3 42.5 47.4 49.0 51.1 2004 28.2 39.3 40.4 46.5 47.2 50.7 2005 27.1 38.1 42.5 47.2 47.1 52.2 2006 27.0 33.4 42.6 47.4 50.5 52.2 2007 25.4 33.7 43.8 47.7 49.1 53.6 2008 26.5 34.6 41.7 48.6 49.7 53.8 2009 25.9 35.2 42.3 48.0 51.9 55.1 2010 26.0 28.5 43.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 Source: APESMA, Professional Engineer Remuneration Survey Reports
Figure 8.1: The average age of private sector engineers by responsibility level
Level 1 55.0 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Above level 5
> Level 5 47.0 46.0 45.0 46.0 48.0 46.9 46.3 48.9 47.1 48.5 50.8 50.5 51.6 50.0
50.0
45.0
Age (years)
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Age of engineers
62
55.0
50.0
Ages (years)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The movements in the Tables are relatively small and recourse to simple regression analysis is necessary to interpret trends accurately. The trends in the private sector are illustrated in figure 8.1. The average ages for levels 1 and 2 are both trending downwards, just under a year each decade. However, the average ages for levels 3, 4 and 5 are increasing at successively higher rates. Level 3 is increasing by 1.6 years each decade, level 4 by 3 years each decade and level 5 is increasing by 5.4 years per decade. The average age for engineers above level 5 is also increasing but at a rate intermediate to levels 4 and 5 (4.2 years per decade). The pattern is very similar in the public sector (Figure 8.2) but public sector ages in each level were older than in the private sector. The average age of engineers in the two junior levels in the public sector also fell, but average ages successively increased for other levels. Many public sector organisations have reduced the sizes of engineering establishments or eliminated them entirely.
T able 8.3: The overall average ages of engineers Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Private sector 35.6 35.9 36.4 36.9 36.5 37.4 37.5 37.9 38.2 40.3 39.3 40.7 39.8 39.1 Public sector 42.2 42.6 42.4 43.6 42.8 43.8 43.7 43.0 43.9 45.0 44.4 44.9 44.9 45.3 All engineers 38.7 38.3 38.3 39.0 38.8 40.3 40.2 40.2 40.7 42.1 41.3 42.4 41.8 42.0
The pattern revealed may be the product of these changes as surviving engineers remain in jobs longer than previously. The falling trends at junior level may be the result of recruiting difficulties, given the reductions, and the greater attractiveness of the private sector.
Age of engineers
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THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 However, this explanation cannot be extended to the private sector. When the demand for engineers is high, as has been the case for engineers this past decade, one might expect more rapid advancement through responsibility levels. These statistics suggest this has only been the case for the two junior levels. The increasing ages for other levels is counterintuitive.
Figure 8.3: The average ages of Australian engineers
Private 46.0 Public All engineers
44.0
42.0
Age (years)
40.0
38.0
36.0
34.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Table 8.3 uses relative size weights to estimate a time series for the average age of engineers. Resulting trends are illustrated in Figure 8.3. The average age estimated for 2006 is 42.1 years and, given the differences in the statistical bases used, is remarkably close to the estimate from census statistics of 41.9 years. The average ages in both sectors are trending higher. In the public sector the average age of engineers is increasing by about 2.3 years each decade and in 2010 was 45.3 years. In the private sector, the average age of engineers is increasing by 3.7 years each decade and in 2010 was 39.1 years. Overall the increase in age was about 3.3 years per decade and in 2010 the average age was 42 years.
Work experience
64
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 progressively higher rates for level 4 (increase of 2 years in a decade), for level 5 (increase of 3 years in a decade) and above level 5 (increase of 5 years in a decade).
Table 8.4: Average years of work experience of engineers in the public sector Year Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 > Level 5 1997 3.0 13.7 17.6 21.3 22.9 26.1 1998 2.6 11.1 17.3 22.2 23.2 25.4 1999 5.1 11.6 18.2 21.0 24.4 25.6 2000 4.9 12.8 18.0 23.3 24.4 26.6 2001 5.8 12.5 17.2 22.9 24.4 26.8 2002 5.8 15.3 17.7 23.5 24.6 26.6 2003 4.6 13.0 18.2 23.3 25.1 28.3 2004 4.5 15.0 16.3 22.6 23.8 27.7 2005 4.5 14.1 17.9 23.2 23.4 28.4 2006 2.5 8.6 17.3 23.1 26.9 29.2 2007 1.7 8.7 19.1 24.0 25.0 29.9 2008 2.4 10.1 17.1 24.3 26.5 31.3 2009 1.8 9.4 17.2 23.2 27.9 32.5 2010 2.1 6.6 18.1 24.5 26.8 31.0 Source: APESMA, Professional Engineer Remuneration Survey Reports TABLE 8.5: Average years of work experience of engineers in the private sector Year Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 > Level 5 1997 1.8 7.4 12.6 17.0 19.9 24.0 1998 1.8 5.4 11.8 18.2 20.1 22.7 1999 2.2 5.8 12.5 18.2 20.6 22.1 2000 1.7 6.0 12.6 17.8 20.1 22.8 2001 2.4 5.5 11.7 18.1 19.8 24.2 2002 2.8 6.8 11.9 19.3 19.4 23.7 2003 2.4 6.2 11.4 18.8 19.7 23.7 2004 3.4 6.9 12.5 18.8 18.8 26.1 2005 2.0 5.9 12.3 19.6 19.7 24.0 2006 1.6 5.6 13.8 20.2 23.1 24.8 2007 1.6 4.7 13.5 20.2 23.9 28.0 2008 1.6 6.0 13.4 21.0 24.3 26.5 2009 1.5 5.6 14.8 20.2 26.5 28.5 2010 1.6 4.7 14.1 21.8 26.3 28.6 Source: APESMA, Professional Engineer Remuneration Survey Reports
Figure 8.4: Average years of work experience of engineers in the public sector
Level 1 35.0 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Above level 5
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Work experience
65
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
A similar pattern was evident in the private sector. Average work experience fell for levels 1 and 2, but because the amount of work experience at these levels was already less than in the public sector, the reductions were smaller; a fall of 0.4 years in a decade for level 1 and about 1 year for level 2. In the public sector, there was no increase in average work experience at level 3, but in the private sector average work experience at this level increase by about 1.7 years in a decade. Similarly, the increases in average work experience at levels 4 and 5 were higher than in the public sector; about 3 years in a decade for level 4 and about 5 years in a decade for level 5. Average work experience also increased above level 5 by about 4.5 years in a decade. There has been an increased concentration of engineers in both sectors at more senior responsibility levels. In the public sector, the proportion of engineers at levels 1 and 2 have fallen and in 2010 together accounted for about 15%. The proportion of engineers at level 3 has been subject to some fluctuations but has been more stable than other levels. In 2010 there was just over one quarter of public sector engineers at this level. The proportion of engineers at level 4 increased strongly from about 28% in 1997 to just less than 40% in 2010. The proportion of engineers at level 5 increased fairly rapidly from 15% in 1997 to 26% in 2005 and has fallen back just as rapidly to be about 17% in 2010. The proportion of public sector engineers above level 5 was always small and has contracted to just over 2% in 2010. A similar concentration has occurred in the private sector. The proportion of engineers at levels 1 and 2 has contracted sharply but in 2010 was still much higher than in the public sector at about 21%. There was strong growth in the proportion of engineers at level 3 and at level 4. In 1997, each level had about 18% of private sector engineers but by 2010 the proportion in level 3 had increased to 29% and the proportion in level 4 to 31%; for both levels combined the proportion was 60% in the private sector compared to 65% in the public sector. The proportion in level 5 mirrored the movement that occurred in the public sector, increasing from 18% in 1997 to 24% in 2005 before falling back to 14% by 2010. As was the case in the public sector, the proportion of engineers above level 5 in the private sector has fallen and in 2010 was just over 3%.
Work experience
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THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 respectively for the public and private sector. Salary levels are important but so too are changes in salaries. Figure 8.4 to 8.9 compare the relative growth in engineering salaries to growth in annualised total weekly earnings to examine whether engineering salaries have increased more or less rapidly as a well-known ABS measure of overall salary movements in Australia. Index numbers are used to facilitate comparison.
Table 8.6: Average salary packages for engineers in the public sector Year Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 > Level 5 1997 41012 52668 63498 74444 93957 135549 1998 42777 55215 66707 78010 97719 131238 1999 45360 57365 68995 80465 120879 145035 2000 46631 63423 73361 88824 103265 181818 2001 53055 65426 76451 91863 110276 162933 2002 54373 68744 78240 95105 114067 152316 2003 54606 69536 79941 99881 118755 154710 2004 54599 70524 79676 100533 119385 156599 2005 58287 74843 83329 107197 122616 174749 2006 63285 84328 91844 111052 133185 192196 2007 63535 85384 98664 118833 142997 176529 2008 70754 88651 103325 125394 151387 198850 2009 71571 95034 110307 132450 159729 228699 2010 83200 94878 113198 139449 165396 222321 Source: APESMA, Professional Engineer Remuneration Survey Reports
Engineer level 1 average salary packages in the public sector increased 103% from $41,012 in 1997 to $83,200 in 2010. At the start of the period the equivalent private sector salary package was a little less than in the public sector and the increase over the 14 years to 2010 was less at 82% so that a $9,000 difference between the two sectors developed. Salary growth in both sectors was well above the corresponding change in total weekly earnings of 68%.
Table 8.7: Average salary packages for engineers in the private sector Year Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 1997 40748 55639 66767 78707 105095 1998 43454 54360 67673 83663 107593 1999 44071 56030 70124 87675 109068 2000 48081 60897 74765 95275 114206 2001 51503 60484 75707 97547 115901 2002 50597 64995 81192 106729 120076 2003 51455 65438 80574 103891 127149 2004 53277 64989 81045 108929 125415 2005 56757 71121 84590 113328 131810 2006 60006 77148 96671 129719 157797 2007 66098 80726 103971 136672 173580 2008 69684 92838 112678 150957 183428 2009 76717 89658 116856 154179 199355 2010 74359 95562 122389 163535 224035 Source: APESMA, Professional Engineer Remuneration Survey Report > Level 5 150965 155598 149836 187468 173646 181688 181468 192623 219408 224784 267480 263493 248915 300165
Private sector engineer level 2 average salary packages were higher than in the public sector even though overall growth in the public sector was greater. In 1997, private sector engineers level 2 were paid $55,639, about $3,000 more than in the public sector ($52,668). Private sector salaries increased by 72% over the period, but as Figure 8.5 shows for much of the period grew more slowly than total weekly earnings, increasing above the latter only in 2008. By 2010 average private sector engineer level 2 salary packages were $95,562. In contrast, salary package growth in the public sector was higher than growth in total weekly earnings for the entire period, growing by 80% to $94,878 and eliminating most of the 2010 level 1 differential between the two sectors.
Salary packages
67
190
Index (1997=100)
170
150
130
110
90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 8.7: Relative growth in engineer level 2 salary packages compared to total earnings
Public sector 190 180 170 160 Private sector Total earnings
Index (1997=100)
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 8.8: Relative growth in engineer level 3 salary packages compared to total earnings
Public sector 190 180 170 160 Private sector Total earnings
Index (1997=100)
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Salary packages
68
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 The increase in private sector level 3 average salary packages was 5% more than in the public sector and the overall increase in both sectors was well ahead of the increase in total weekly earnings. But, as Figure 8.6 shows, most of the change has occurred since 2006. The suggestion in the changes illustrated is that following a period of relative sluggish salary growth, high demand for engineers level 3 in both sectors resulted in a pronounced kick in salaries growth.
Figure 8.9: Relative growth in engineer level 4 salary packages compared to total earnings
Public sector 230 Private sector Total earnings
210
190
Index (1997=100)
170
150
130
110
90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 8.10: Relative growth in engineer level 5 salary packages and total earnings
Public sector 230 Private sector Total earnings
210
190
Index (1997=100)
170
150
130
110
90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Public sector average salary packages for engineers level 4 were lower than in the private sector throughout the period being examined. Overall growth was also higher in the private sector with 108% compared to 87% in the public sector. By 2010 there was a $14,000 difference between the sectors with an average package of $139,449 in the public sector compared to $163,535 in the private sector. As was the case for level 3, there was a pronounced kick in salary package growth in the private sector from about 2005 onwards coinciding with high demand for experienced engineers. A similar pattern can be observed for engineers level 5 average salary package movements with the key difference being that until 2005 movements in both sectors were comparatively close to movements in total weekly earnings. The influence of high demand was evident in
Salary packages
69
THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 both sectors but was particularly strong in the private sector, resulting in a salary differential of over $58,000 in favour of the private sector.
Figure 8.11: Relative growth in salary packages for engineers above level 5 compared to total earnings
Public sector 210 Private sector Total earnings
190
Index (1997=100)
170
150
130
110
90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average salary packages for engineers above level 5 were substantially higher than for level 5 in each sector. However, as Figure 8.9 shows, there was much more variability in salary movements and these were closer to movements in total ordinary earnings than for other senior grades. In the private sector, the pronounced movement from 2005 onwards evident for the preceding two levels was again evident but in this case was interrupted by a severe contrary change when the global financial crisis influenced the economy.
Salary packages
70
Key points
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THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 In the lead up to the GFC demand for engineers increased ahead of supply. In 2008, the demand for engineers increased by 21,300 compared to an increase in supply of 20,600. The unemployment rate fell to 2.4% and the additional 700 engineers employed matched supply to demand. Unemployment was exceptionally low and economists regard rates this low as frictional unemployment. Frictional unemployment is the result of short periods of voluntary unemployment that occur when individuals move from one job to another. In other words, the engineering labour force was at practical full employment. The additional supply of engineers was partly due to an increase in the engineering labour force participation rate from 90.4% in 2007 to 91.5% in 2008 accounting for about 21% or 4,300 of the increase. Close to half the increase in supply came from the flow of new graduate professional engineers, engineering technologists and associate engineers; about 10,000 in 2008. A similar contribution came from permanent (4,400) and temporary migration (4,600) and the balancing factor was a reduction in the engineering population21. In 2009, the impact of the GFC on engineering became evident. The demand for engineers continued to rise, but at a reduced rate, increasing by 5,000, less than half the 11,500 increase in the supply of engineers. The balancing factor was an increase in unemployment to 14,700 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. In the economy overall the unemployment rate increased to 6.0%. The increase in the supply of engineers was moderated by a fall in the engineering participation rate from 91.5 to 91.2 and by a reduction in temporary skilled migration. In 2010, increased demand for engineers once more outstripped supply with demand increasing by 11,100 and supply by 10,100. Unemployment fell by 1,000 and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.7%. Employers assisted adjustment by halving their temporary migration intake and the participation rate fell from 91.2 to 90.1, further easing supply pressures. What is significant is that the changes in 2010 occurred when the permanent migration intake of engineers was at a record level. The observed changes in temporary migration preceded changes in skilled migration rules that shifted the responsibility for resolving temporary skills shortages to employers. The observed evidence is encouraging because it suggests that employers do respond to reduced demand for engineers by adjusting temporary migrant intakes. The policy intent of permanent skilled migration is to supplement the flow of domestic graduates into the engineering team. Since 2006, this flow has averaged 9,500 per year and the indications are that future increases are likely to be small, a few hundred or so, and slow in coming. Skilled permanent migration continues to increase and in 2010 was about 6,700. Assuming an on-going level of about 6,500, the total annual gross flow of new entrants into the engineering labour market is about 16,00022. The net annual flow depends on how many engineers turn 65 years and so leave the population as defined in the statistics. Accurate information is not available but an approximation can be estimated by reconciling demand, supply and changes to supply and for 2010 this suggests that about 5 to 6,000 engineers turned 65 years and left the population. In other words, the present level of new domestic graduates and permanent migration can sustain growth in the demand for engineers of about 10-11,000 per year without causing too many supply pressures. The issue is, however, that over the past decade, the average growth in demand has been about 13,000 per year and as high as 22,000. This comparison suggests that for average demand conditions experienced during the past decade, there is a
Bear in mind that the EWS and the statistics being cited relate to the engineering labour force less than 65 years of age, in other words, the observed changes in the engineering population relate to individuals moving across this age divide. 22 It is tempting to assume that all migrant engineers whether permanent or temporary, join the labour force. While this is highly probable for temporary migrants, in the case of permanent migrants it is more likely that they add to the engineering population and join the labour force in line with the participation rate.
21
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THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 chronic shortage of engineers, exacerbated when demand is particularly strong. Growth in domestic graduations will help to deal with the shortage but is unlikely to be sufficient or sufficiently timely. In the immediate future, on-going migration will need to fill the gap between demand and supply. The higher the demand for engineers, the higher the requirement for skilled migrants The higher the flow of domestic graduates, the lower the requirement for temporary migrants. The higher the flow of permanent migrants, the lower the requirement for temporary migrants The higher the flow of engineers past 65 years of age, the higher the requirement for temporary migration In the short term, some adjustment from reduced unemployment is feasible, but should the unemployment rate return to the low level of 2008, only an additional 5,500 engineers would be available to satisfy increased demand. High labour force participation is a feature of all skilled groups, but throughout the decade participation in engineering stood out as being significantly above other skills, up to five percentage points higher. In other words, there is little short or long term scope for adjustment through increased labour force participation in engineering. This analysis does not accommodate geographical differences or differences in the demand for particular engineering specialisations. But when the overall engineering labour market is as tight as suggested, there is a strong probability that some segments of the market are in a worse predicament and others are better placed. Time series statistics to illustrate this point are not available. However, Table 9.1 shows that in the 2006 census, unemployment rates for engineers were low in all Australian jurisdictions. Unemployment rates were particularly low in the resource States of Western Australia and Queensland. Yet almost across the board, unemployment was higher for women than men, suggesting an avenue for better skills utilisation23.
Table 9.1: The engineering labour force, geographic distribution of key parameters State or Share of LF (%) Unemployment rate (%) Territory Men Women Total Men Women Total NSW 30.7 3.7 34.4 3.0 5.5 3.3 Victoria 24.6 3.1 27.7 3.2 5.4 3.5 Queensland 15.3 1.3 16.6 2.0 4.3 2.2 WA 10.0 0.9 11.0 1.8 3.9 2.0 SA 5.8 0.5 6.2 3.0 6.5 3.3 Tasmania 1.3 0.1 1.4 2.7 5.3 2.9 NT 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.8 ACT 1.7 0.2 1.9 1.7 4.9 2.0 Australia 90.2* 9.8* 100.0 2.7 5.2 2.9 Source: ABS, 2006 Population Census Tablebuilder * Other territories included in the total but not shown separately Participation rate (%) Men Women Total 82.5 74.3 81.6 82.6 74.9 81.6 82.3 75.3 81.7 84.8 74.5 83.8 80.1 70.8 79.3 74.4 65.8 73.8 92.5 80.3 91.5 81.4 76.9 80.9 82.7 74.8 81.9
Table 9.2 shows that low unemployment rates were widespread across engineering specialisations. In the few cases where this is not so, the specialisations are small in numbers and commensurate with overall unemployment at the time. The combination of geography and specialisation is likely to produce a similar distribution. But it is important to remember that since the census the demand for engineers experienced its highest growth with many unemployment rates falling to frictional levels.
23
Note that the population for Table 9.1 is not restricted by age whereas in the discussion of time series statistics it is. This is reflected in the different labour force participation rates.
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Engineering & Related Technologies NFD 2.5 Manufacturing Engineering 4.4 Rest of Manufacturing Engineering 4.7 Chemical Engineering 3.1 Mining Engineering 1.8 Materials Engineering 3.1 Rest of Process & Resource Engineering 4.0 Automotive Engineering 4.9 Rest of Automotive Engineering 0.0 Mechanical Engineering 3.1 Industrial Engineering 5.1 Rest of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering 4.8 Construction Engineering 3.7 Structural Engineering 2.7 Building Services Engineering 0.0 Water & Sanitary Engineering 0.0 Transport Engineering 3.7 Geotechnical Engineering 2.4 Ocean Engineering 0.0 Rest of Civil Engineering 2.5 Electrical Engineering 3.1 Electronic Engineering 4.1 Computer Engineering 4.3 Communications Technologies 6.5 Rest of Electrical & Electronic Engineering 5.6 Aerospace Engineering 2.2 Aircraft Maintenance Engineering 0.0 Aircraft Operations 3.1 Rest of Aerospace Engineering .. Maritime Engineering 5.4 Rest of Maritime Engineering 3.3 Environmental Engineering 3.8 Biomedical Engineering 4.6 Rest of Other Engineering 4.6 All specialisations 3.0 Source: ABS, 2006 Population Census Tablebuilder
See www.engineersmedia.com.au
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THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 increased to 4.1%, reflecting the complex of geographic and specialty issues embedded in the aggregate results. By 2010, the worst of the GFC was over and the proportion of employers experiencing recruiting difficulties increased to 62%, below the levels experienced in the first of the three years shown, but well over half.
Figure 9.1: The proportion of respondents that experienced difficulties recruiting engineers in the past 12 months
80 4.5
70
60
3.5
% Of respondents
3 50 2.5 40 2 30 1.5 20
10
0.5
Figure 9.2 shows that recruiting difficulties were widespread among engineering specialisations. Civil engineers consistently featured as the largest group of vacancies when recruiting difficulties were experienced, even during the global financial crisis. Mechanical, electrical and structural engineers were other specialisations where large groups of vacancies were affected by recruiting difficulties. In the case of structural engineers, the reduction of commercial building during 2009 is reflected in a sharp fall in recruiting difficulties. In the case of electrical engineers, the upsurge of infrastructure work, particularly in electricity transmission and distribution, is reflected in an increase in recruiting difficulties from 2007, peaking in 2009. Mining engineers in all years resulted in comparatively low levels of recruiting difficulties.
Figure 9.2: Engineering specialisations and difficulties recruiting engineers
Civil 30.0 Structural Electrical Mechanical Chemical Electronic, IT, etc Environmental Mining
25.0
% of affected vacancies
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
75
30.0
% of affected vacancies
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Figure 9.3 shows that the largest group of vacancies affected by recruiting difficulties was for engineers level 3 where average ages are in the upper thirties and 14 to 17 years of experience are the norm. This result supports the view that skilled migration policies that favour younger visa applicants will not meet the needs of businesses experiencing shortages of experienced engineers. The skilled migration points test has now been changed to award additional points for work experience for a more balanced outcome. Figure 9.4 shows that persistent recruiting difficulties were experienced in the resource States of Western Australia and Queensland. There were also significant difficulties experienced in NSW and to a lesser degree in Victoria. Figure 9.4 reminds us that the demand for engineers is increased by infrastructure developments as well as the exploitation of commodities.
Figure 9.4: Location and difficulties experienced recruiting engineers
NSW 30.0 Victoria Queensland WA SA Tasmania NT ACT
25.0
% of affected vacancies
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Multiple difficulties were experienced by respondents recruiting engineers as shown in Table 9.3. The most common difficulty was an inability to recruit the desires skill set. Between 2006 and 2008, at least 80% of respondents raised this issue. During the global financial crisis the proportion fell to 72% but had risen back to 77% by 2010. There was a similar pattern for
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THE ENGINEERING PROFESSION: A Statistical Overview, Eighth Edition, 2011 experiencing longer than expected recruitment periods. In the early years of the survey about two-thirds of respondents reported this experience and even after reduced economic activity in 2008 and 2009 about half of respondents still reported it. Two symptoms of a tight labour market are that in 2010 30% of respondents reported they could not recruit engineers at all and 31% paid higher than expected salaries to recruit engineers. Retraining engineers with an inappropriate skill set is on the rise again. In 2010, 24% of respondents reported this issue, up from 20% in 2009.
Table 9.3: Difficulties experienced in recruiting engineers (% respondents) Difficulties Could not recruit required skill set Longer recruitment period Could not recruit at all Paid higher than expected salary Recruited different skill set & retrained Other 2006 82 66 46 42 18 2 2007 80 64 40 58 28 2 2008 80 64 40 58 28 0 2009 72 51 32 32 20 8 2010 77 51 29 31 24 3
Table 9.4: The consequences of difficulties recruiting engineers (% respondents) Consequence Minor irritation but no monetary issues Moderate problems with some monetary problems Major problems, including project delays & costs Did not proceed with available project 2006 12 39 43 6 2007 10 40 42 7 2008 16 43 33 8 2009 21 43 28 8 2010 10 57 29 4
For society as a whole there are costs involved with shortages of engineers as shown in Table 9.4. While around 10% of respondents (20% during the global financial crisis) described the consequences of the recruiting difficulties they experienced as minor irritations with no monetary issues, over three-quarters reported that some monetary consequences were involved. The proportion that experienced moderate problems with some monetary problems has trended upwards from 39% in 2006 to 57% in 2010. The proportion that experienced major problems that involved project delays and cost blow-outs has trended downwards from 43% in 2006 to 29% in 2010. The suggestion here is that employers are adapting to the difficulties of recruiting engineers but the proportion of respondents in both categories remains too high. A small minority of projects (4% in 2010) did not proceed.
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Key Points
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