Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

Sentiment Analysis Report W/E April 20, 2012

Sunday, April 21, 2012/ Proshare Research

The Diagnosis Analysis of the market activity in the week ended April 20th 2012 would indicate an improving air of optimism and positive sentiments backed with active bargain activities as seen in the investors trading pattern compared to last weeks pessimism and negative sentiments laced with a profit taking propensity. In the week just ended, a lot more bargain sentiment was observed across the baord as market sentiments turned positive, mainly towards active and liquid stocks. However, renewed and continued moderate bargain tendency was experienced in few attractive sectors as speculators appear to be in control of market direction - a major reason for the unstable market trend. To date, the indecisive posture of the market remains high, alongside a significant reduced activity level as sideline attendants appeared to take positions subtly, yet remain a significant feature. The depressed postures of equity prices across the board and the wary postures of investors is expected to increase the level of speculative trading in the coming periods - a pointer to continued volatility in the market.

Market Diagnostic Score Card

Market Gauges ASI Scores +4.89% Positive but weak Remarks The positive posture was significantly impacted by activities towards liquid and active stocks across the sectors. This confirms the increase in optimism and positive sentiments in the week which further reflects the bargain tendency. The market RSI shows that market is gaining uptrend momentum while moving into active posture. Market RSI closed higher as against previous week of 46.77 Illiquidity of some stocks, low purchasing power, low risk appetite, feeble confidence and wary posture of investors reflected here significantly - this is considered too high. However, an improved posture against 57.63% observed in the previous week. There is an INCREASE in the optimism level of the market against the previous outlook of 15.25%. Also, there was active bargain tendency as the optimistic activity on the bourse closed higher at 78.76%, against total market activity, from 50.90% recorded in the previous week. There is a DECLINE in the levelm of pessimism in the market - an impressive posture over the previous outlook of 27.12%. This shows that 20.15% of market participants in the week were pessimistic about the market. Also, there was significant decline in the pessimistic activity level to close lower at 7.65%, against total market activity, from 37.28% recorded in the previous week.

Market Breadth

Market RSI

66.42

Indecision level

(%)

55.22%

Optimism Level

(%)

78.76%

Pessimism Level

(%)

20.15%

Proshare Research

Technically, market sentiments during the week favoured blue chip stocks in the Medium and Large CAP categories - Agriculture, ICT, Consumer Goods, Financial Services and Services sectors in that order which indicates sectors investors patronised in the week.

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the following sectors Industrial Goods, Construction/Real Estate, Conglomerates and Oil & Gas sectors in that order as sell sentiments was stronger in the sectors.
Sector Agriculture ICT Consumer Goods Performance 7.01% 3.14% 2.66% Sector Movers LIVESTOCK, PRESCO NCR NASCON, DANGFLOUR, NB UBN, FIRSTBANK, FCMB, UBA RTBRISCOE, IKEJAHOTEL Renewed bargain sentiments observed in these sectors due to depressed and attractive prices that followed the heavy sell tendency observed in the previous week Direction & Trading Psychology

Financial Services Services Natural Resources Healthcare

1.89% 0.61% 0.00%

Indecisive (no active transactions) 0.00% BAGCO, ASHAKACEM, BERGER, AVONCROWN UAC-PROP AGLEVENT CHEVRON, CONOIL, FO, JAPAULOIL Waning and Continued Mild sell tendency was observed as bears have been in control - a short term rally in the coming periods is not in doubt Mild sell tendency observed in these sectors- Speculating trading was observed as profit taking tendency dominated Continued and Growing selling tendency observed in this sector

Industrial Goods

-0.28%

Construction/Real Estate Conglomerates Oil & Gas Source: NSE/Proshare Research

-0.39% -1.00% -2.22%

Stock Trend & Direction We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME UBA Plc closed the week with the highest traded volume, recording 6.8% gain against the -1.5% loss recorded in the previous week- an impressive price reversal as sentiments closed positive and bullish for the week. The stock closed the week with a strong buying tendency as revealed in the weekly volume trend which closed bullish above previous weekly volume and a 15-day volume moving average by 768.39% and 9.78% respectively. Buttressing this further, the price moving average revealed a bullish mode in short and mid-long term period. Also, MACD suggests a bullish trend as stock closed above signal line. The northward opening of the upper Bollinger band after a contraction with price position outside upper Bollinger band confirmed the bullish mode further as the stock recorded maximum gain in the last two sessions. However, the money flow index indicates weakness even as we observed an impressive uptrend momentum as revealed by RSI.

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appeared positive while the stock likely to extend the bullish trend in the coming periods, barring all unforeseen market volatility. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

FCMB Plc experienced positive sentiments in the week to close with a 22.4% gain against a 3.4% gain recorded in the previous week on the back of a sustained uptrend and continued positive sentiments observed in the week. The stock recorded a significant volume growth above the previous week volume and its 15-day volume moving average by 230% and 190.24% respectively. Further, the stock witnessed a bullish trend and consistent bargain in the week as revealed by its candlestick patterns while the price moving average buttressed the bullish trend - as the stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term period. The bullish outlook was buttressed further by MACD as the price maintained strong position above signal line while consistent accumulation and cash flow into the stock was observed in the week. However, the candlestick formation in the last session suggests a reversal trend as the presence of bears was noticed during the session. This further signifies incoming sell tendency (profit taking) in the near term. To buttress this further, the last traded volume closed red, signifying sell tendency while the RSI suggests the stock is overbought. Meanwhile, the money flow index experience slight weakness. Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is the possibility of a trend reversal anytime soon as we have observed subtle profit taking in the last session. The candlestick pattern emphasises this position in the coming periods as the stock is trading within the overbought region as revealed by RSI, buttressed by slight weaknesses in the money flow index. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

THE GAINERS UBN Plc experienced consistent bargain sentiments during the week to close as top gainer by 26.7% against 20.8% gain recorded in the previous week - sustained and improved bargain sentiment was observed towards the stock in the week. The stock maintained maximum gain pattern in the last ten sessions, indicating strong bargain tendency towards the stock as buttressed by MACD. Also, the persistent bearish volume trend revealed increased willingness of investors to sell their positions - the trading pattern and price trend suggests mop-up activities on stock. However, the price position closed neutral and bearish in both short and mid-long term period, indicating the stock is yet to enter bullish mode. Technical conclusion on sentiments: there is a moderate possibility for the stock to extend the price uptrend in the coming periods. The continued bearish volume calls for cautious trading, though a waning bearish volume was observed in the last trading session. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

NASCON Plc experienced positive sentiments and active bargain tendency in the week to close with a 26.6% gain as against the 1.3% gain recorded in the previous week an improved bargain sentiments witnessed towards the stock in the week. The stock experienced maximum price gain throughout the week to close bullish in both short and mid-long term period as revealed by price moving average, buttressed by MACD. In addition, the price position above upper Bollinger band reveals the strong bargain posture of investors, though more distribution was observed during the week as indicated in the volume trend. However, the stock closed within the overbought region as revealed by RSI, buttressed by price position above upper Bollinger band- this indicates possibility of trend reversal anytime soon. To buttress this further, the money flow index experienced weakness in the last trading session. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock closed in the overbought region while weaknesses was observed in the money flow index - a signal to a possible trend reversal (profit taking) anytime soon; further buttressed by the bearish volume witnessed in the last two sessions. Nothwistanding, there is a moderate possibility for the stock to extend the price uptrend for few sessions, considering the uptrend momentum. The chart below shows MACD,
candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

THE LOSERS CONOIL Plc experienced negative and bearish sentiments in the week just ended to record a -9.7% loss as against the -5.0% recorded in the previous week on the back of a continued moderate sell tendency and bearish sentiments witnessed towards the stock. The stock has been on a downtrend since 16th Dec 2011 and so far in the year, has not experienced a sustained bargain trend while its YTD loss stood at 33.46%. Furthermore, the stock broke its 9-year support of N21.00 on April 17th 2012 with 5% loss to close at N20.96. More so, the stock plunged by -33.75% between December 16th 2011 and April 17th 2012 to hit all nine years low of N20.96 as the bearish sentiments

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

persists. In addition, the bearish volume trend revealed strong sell tendency from investors in the year- a pointer to weak shareholders loyalty. So far in the year, the stock has traded bearish volume of 4.89million units only. This shows the inactive posture of the stock as total volume traded so far in the year represents less than 1% of the share outstanding of the company. The negative position of money flow index buttressed the significant weakness in shareholders' loyalty while the stock remained depressed as technically revealed by RSI. Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a high possibility for the stock to continue the downtrend in the coming periods. Be that as it may, a price trend reversal may not be in doubt as the stock appears to have bottomed-out while its depressed posture as revealed by RSI could incite some speculative buying on the back of positive fundamentals. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

Continsure Plc recorded negative and bearish sentiments in the week just ended to close with a -13.2% loss as against the -1.1% loss recorded in the previous week on the back of continued and growing bearish sentiments observed in the week as the stock maintained its downtrend in the last three weeks. The stock appeared depressed due to the sustained downtrend momentum as revealed by the RSI while the MACD buttressed the bearish sentiments as its price closed far below signal line. However, in the last trading session, the price moving average revealed a bullish trend in mid-long term while the stock closed neutral in short term- this indicates that the stock is moving out of bearish mode gradually. To buttress this further, the candlestick pattern revealed a reversal signal in the last trading session, suggesting incoming bargain tendency. Technical conclusion on sentiments: An overwhelmed sell tendency was observed in the week as the stock closed depressed. Nevertheless, there is a possibility of a trend reversal anytime soon as its depressed posture could incite moderate buying as witnessed in the last session; and buttressed by the candlestick pattern. Though, the reliability of the reversal signal is low. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and
volume analysis.

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

Due Diligence
Valuation/Investment Ratio Book Value (N'm) Book Value/Per Share Price to Book EPS PE Profitability ROE (%) PAT Margin (%) PBT Margin (%) Revenue Growth Proshare Research UBA 181,131 5.60 0.00 0.43 6.59 7.61% 25.58% 29.74% 32.94% FCMB 117,696 7.23 0.00 -0.61 -9.04 -8.42% -12.33% -14.12% 28.26% UBN -184,571 -10.90 0.00 -3.69 -1.02 33.85% -79.64% 109.31% -8.32% NASCON 5,784 2.18 0.00 0.81 6.15 37.24% 22.25% 32.17% 8.85% CONOIL 18,355 26.45 0.00 4.46 4.70 16.86% 2.57% 3.78% 85.59% CONTINSURE 8,540 0.82 0.00 0.12 6.65 14.43% 12.99% 16.83% -7.50%

Price Trend
Price Performance
52 Weeks High 52 weeks Low 3 Month's (%) 6 Month's (%) 12 Month's (%) Price Trend Current Price 15 Days MA 30 Days MA 50 Days MA 200 Days MA Proshare Research UBA 8.25 1.64 22.17% -14.33% -65.94% 2.81 2.63 2.66 2.51 3.28 FCMB 7.9 3.61 37.75% 37.75% -25.94% 5.51 4.59 4.32 4.26 4.63 UBN 11.15 1.96 -60.82% 79.43% 20.19% 3.75 2.90 3.62 5.14 4.04 NASCON 6.7 3.65 21.95% 25.00% -14.38% 5.00 4.26 4.2 4.08 4.26 CONOIL 41.89 20.96 -33.46% -40.11% -41.94% 20.96 23.19 24.37 25.05 31.47 CONTINSURE 1.15 0.63 9.72% -27.52% -30.70% 0.79 0.91 0.91 0.84 0.93

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements
here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.

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