23 April 2012

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
Over Valued .................................................................. 5
Aerospace & Defence

Over Valued ................................................................... 5

Automobiles & Parts
Under Valued .................................................................................... 5
Banks
Over Valued ............................................................................ 5
Beverages
Over Valued ............................................................................ 5
Over Valued ................................................... 6
Construction & Building Materials
Over Valued ................................................. 6
Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Chemicals

Over Valued ............................................................ 6

Under Valued .................................................................... 7

Engineering & Machinery

Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ....................................................... 7

Food Producers & Processors
Over Valued .......................................................................... 7
General Retail
Under Valued .................................................................................... 7
Health
Under Valued ......................................................... 8
Over Valued ............................................. 8
Information Technology & Hardware
Over Valued ................................................................................ 8
Insurance
Under Valued .................................................................... 8
Leisure & Hotels
Household Goods & Textiles

Life Assurance

Over Valued .......................................................................... 9

Over Valued ............................................................... 9

Media & Entertainment

Under Valued .................................................................................... 9
Mining
Under Valued .............................................................................. 10
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance

Over Valued ........................................... 10

Under Valued ................................................. 10

Under Valued ................................................... 10

Over Valued ......................................................... 11

Under Valued .................................................................. 12

Under Valued ...................................................... 12
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued .............................................................................. 13
Transport

Support Services

Under Valued .................................................................................. 13

Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices ..................................................... 15

Page 2 of 15

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Page 3 of 15

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices. On a daily
basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Profit & Loss
Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement and then utilises this data
within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a function of market
levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing
the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation
methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Page 4 of 15

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence

Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.
UMEC O

Price 12M Lo
293.10 248.10
362.90 362.90
236.90 165.90
407.10 305.00
832.00 552.19
1048.00 869.50
1681.00 1305.00
572.00 243.50

12M Hi
340.80
677.00
239.50
412.00
844.00
1340.00
1780.00
572.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell

Price 12M Lo
208.70 157.00
357.90 268.60
63.75
47.00
13.50
6.80

12M Hi
245.00
425.40
72.75
19.71

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
213.55 138.85
555.80 463.50
30.10
21.84
24.02
17.34
1534.50 1169.50

12M Hi
301.85
662.50
60.39
42.91
1672.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price
1180.00
1582.00
2613.00

12M Lo
1031.00
1112.00
1979.00

12M Hi
1395.00
1589.00
2660.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 5 of 15

Target
402
1060
84
9
757

Beta
1.86
1.14
1.77
1.29
1.71

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Target
1252
1392
3008

Beta
0.43
0.55
0.99

Over Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS

Beta
1.98
1.42
1.34
1.14

Over Valued

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Target
164
307
63
21

Under Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Beta
0.65
0.52
0.91
1.34
1.10
0.73
0.60
0.80

Over Valued

Automobiles & Parts

Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

Target
676
628
263
373
753
1025
1164
430

Price
2274.00
204.90
2370.00
1516.00
238.40
171.00

12M Lo
1597.00
107.50
1523.00
1025.00
148.00
109.00

12M Hi
2274.00
206.00
2408.00
1590.00
253.00
186.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy

Target
1830
184
2409
1534
366
244

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
1.08
1.07
1.47
1.22
1.29
1.01

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials

Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
268.60
130.80
784.50
1259.00
468.90
272.20
48.38
214.00
625.00
434.00
1151.00
60.13
97.50
680.00
641.00
122.50
108.70
49.89
1059.00
2382.00

12M Lo
214.60
67.50
540.50
1025.00
326.50
272.20
35.50
180.00
383.75
239.25
1095.00
38.00
83.25
510.00
374.00
103.50
76.95
28.71
715.00
1404.00

12M Hi
333.70
151.50
859.50
1414.00
518.50
403.20
98.25
247.50
630.00
671.50
1489.00
76.75
124.50
725.00
706.50
135.30
153.50
52.75
1125.00
2558.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1095.00 643.50
610.00 434.30
141.00
86.75
191.40 180.90
216.10 128.50
1285.00 714.00
1454.00 800.00
1840.00 1039.00
0.19
0.14
179.00 120.50
233.00 212.00

12M Hi
1095.00
701.50
146.50
340.60
222.00
1285.00
1886.00
1857.00
0.28
208.00
295.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell

Page 6 of 15

Beta
0.84
1.45
1.01
0.68
1.07
1.09
0.80
0.56
1.05
1.32
1.04
1.11
1.35
0.89
1.10
0.97
1.59
1.50
1.89
1.44

Target
477
739
165
405
197
861
2035
1278
0
254
131

Beta
0.76
1.18
1.35
1.47
2.17
0.99
1.29
1.43
0.64
1.60
1.13

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery

Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
C OOKSON GROUP
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

Target
318
69
689
1288
212
378
203
782
578
446
3206
146
71
1493
627
89
10
13
1100
1814

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price
81.00
415.20
290.00
738.00
448.00
406.50
313.50
992.00
8.00
328.90
2220.00
202.00
175.50
2300.00
647.00
1700.00

12M Lo
62.50
225.60
252.50
395.80
280.00
306.30
235.00
636.50
7.25
224.00
1501.00
135.60
150.00
1649.00
488.00
1375.00

12M Hi
124.00
426.50
358.00
747.50
483.70
429.60
393.50
1119.00
12.00
360.00
2220.00
204.80
250.00
2300.00
690.00
2236.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

Target
263
318
481
688
424
346
540
1308
4
312
1722
223
147
2141
672
1493

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
1.32
1.59
0.98
2.29
1.41
0.76
1.41
1.40
0.86
1.77
0.99
1.77
1.07
0.85
1.52
1.39

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Under Valued

Food & Drug Stores

Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
521.00 445.00
295.00 277.00
313.00 263.50
321.85 310.45
26.50
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
362.80
420.05
81.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1225.00 977.00
812.50 588.50
304.80 302.20
307.00 232.00
16.75
3.29
688.00 544.50
2086.00 1892.00

12M Hi
1233.00
841.00
409.70
332.20
35.12
720.50
2189.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
23.50
16.00
231.30 222.40
1495.00 1092.00
605.00 375.00
7.75
7.50
17.84
9.36
3.35
2.20
43.00
36.00
285.50 269.50
13.37
5.20
808.00 570.00
55.05
54.15
304.00 217.00
362.60 301.80
51.00
26.00
171.00 127.30
3032.00 2153.00
908.50 633.00
38.75
21.50

12M Hi
23.75
304.50
1600.00
741.00
18.00
19.91
8.70
106.00
405.90
31.00
1030.00
151.40
313.80
402.20
51.00
448.50
3060.00
908.50
77.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

Page 7 of 15

Beta
0.60
0.60
0.93
0.33
1.40
0.63
0.58

LT Rec
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
29
253
532
205
10
28
3
100
412
1165
1196
289
286
391
22
363
2129
470
23

Beta
0.71
0.49
1.36
1.03
0.65
1.45
0.97
0.93
0.64
0.88
0.48
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.07
0.56
0.78
0.56
1.33

Under Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Target
1010
1515
725
666
-30
818
1003

Over Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
C LINTON C ARDS
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS
JD SPORTS FASHION
KESA ELEC TRIC ALS
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Beta
0.52
0.45
0.64
0.73
0.77

Over Valued

Food Producers & Processors

Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

Target
316
364
557
419
25

Price 12M Lo
665.00 498.00
36.75
36.50
612.50 521.00

12M Hi
665.00
59.00
694.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Buy

Target
425
48
779

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
0.39
0.76
0.36

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Under Valued

Household Goods & Textiles

Stock
HARVARD INTL.
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
43.88
21.75
570.00 405.00
305.00 233.25
95.63
93.00

12M Hi
44.00
577.50
310.00
145.00

ST Rec
LT
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong

Price 12M Lo
585.00 464.00
198.40 154.10
30.50
14.50
682.50 296.90
55.00
41.00
166.50 105.80
175.50
96.00

12M Hi
645.00
391.40
35.00
717.00
101.50
172.80
244.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1225.00 787.00
327.40 270.60
145.90 109.60
422.90 336.00
406.60 340.50
683.00 576.00
104.90
99.60
368.00 285.00

12M Hi
1754.00
427.00
151.80
449.00
424.70
764.50
139.80
385.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 8 of 15

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell

Target
407
595
57
262
342
382
78

Beta
0.76
1.20
0.66
0.96
1.16
1.01
1.06

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-8532
7253
2360
85
6545
4524
2791
6273

Beta
0.51
0.49
0.51
0.31
0.50
0.32
0.43
0.50

Under Valued

Leisure & Hotels

Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Beta
0.48
0.38
0.93
0.65

Over Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

Target
33
467
364
150

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware

Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
PSION
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

Rec
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy

Price 12M Lo
1979.00 1742.00
59.50
26.50
189.20 136.70
723.50 610.00
519.00 410.00
175.80 114.00
1474.00 955.00
481.50 371.20
268.30 215.60
158.40 100.60
10.50
9.14
122.70 109.50
287.00 254.90
418.10 380.50
1830.00 1409.00
278.30 183.30
98.80
84.60

12M Hi
2642.00
96.15
250.00
752.00
523.50
175.80
1497.00
535.00
336.80
174.00
15.57
153.70
335.00
468.30
1872.00
278.30
112.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy

Target
3164
31
680
574
565
164
1686
428
341
118
-203
179
312
586
1585
270
155

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
1.08
1.73
0.95
0.44
0.86
1.00
1.31
1.41
1.02
1.26
1.30
0.99
0.85
0.72
1.02
0.94
1.26

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
305.50 275.30
183.00 161.75
118.60
89.80
148.50
98.05
762.50 509.00
339.60 294.00

12M Hi
450.30
255.00
135.00
164.60
797.50
376.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
177.90 116.17
109.87
91.25
674.50 618.50
33.00
32.50
420.40 343.40
791.00 522.50
430.40 313.90
224.60 157.70
86.00
51.65
5.75
4.11
1126.00 1038.00
46.38
41.50
330.00 198.25
28.65
26.21
114.50
76.25
73.75
68.50
30.75
30.75
598.00 416.00
91.25
78.50
843.00 578.00
3.39
3.35

12M Hi
187.40
138.00
850.00
56.25
505.50
809.50
451.00
258.00
89.90
8.18
1255.00
67.00
330.00
39.25
168.00
102.25
54.25
641.50
151.00
880.00
11.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 9 of 15

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy

Target
99
140
665
-79
501
615
352
186
82
71
1171
90
170
9
29
235
515
1770
120
900
55

Beta
1.31
0.51
0.61
1.04
1.09
1.05
1.52
1.42
1.52
1.46
0.66
0.86
0.35
0.51
0.81
1.45
1.57
1.30
0.86
1.29
1.32

Under Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Beta
1.26
0.58
1.67
1.66
1.72
0.81

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment

Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
YELL GROUP

Target
435
177
83
160
316
121

Price
2349.00
310.00
1178.00
1970.00
1025.00
5440.00
3547.00
13.12
1237.00
1167.50

12M Lo
2138.50
237.90
900.50
1667.00
941.00
4580.00
2712.50
13.12
928.00
764.00

12M Hi
3181.00
340.00
1491.00
2560.00
1646.00
7565.00
4595.00
47.00
2366.00
1550.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
5878
329
1044
4383
899
1637
4900
-62
4882
1063

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
1.75
0.95
1.38
1.40
1.92
0.33
1.42
0.94
2.10
1.78

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Under Valued

Oil & Gas

Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
MELROSE RESOURC ES
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL A(LON)
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

Price
1415.50
434.85
336.70
10.50
917.50
137.00
117.50
380.70
2136.50
2202.50
296.20
1510.00
749.50

12M Lo
1144.00
363.20
291.86
9.00
530.00
120.50
95.25
310.00
1883.50
1890.50
278.00
945.50
469.90

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
515.11
14.75
968.00
314.00
288.00
500.75
2402.00
2489.00
397.50
1601.00
763.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
129.75 108.75
334.00 285.00
3620.00 3100.00

12M Hi
151.06
387.90
3660.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.53
2867.00
385.30
512.50
1470.00
4.28
8.02
2045.00
85.50
24.38

12M Lo
3.13
2543.50
236.80
433.00
1205.00
2.88
6.40
1818.00
31.00
18.75

12M Hi
5.35
3194.00
385.30
579.00
1497.00
7.20
9.50
2300.00
85.50
49.00

ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 10 of 15

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Sell

Target
110
379
3363

Beta
0.87
0.74
0.34

Price 12M Lo
21.88
21.75
124.00
57.75
1668.00 1298.00
411.00 324.70
292.00 225.00
20.50
16.63
79.65
58.95
462.50 242.90
349.90 214.90
198.50 154.75
81.00
41.50
1543.00 1444.00
284.60 231.70

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-8
11165
232
1988
2058
15
1
2070
306
97

Beta
0.97
0.45
0.73
0.32
0.49
0.61
0.92
0.63
0.70
0.82

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services

Stock
TIMEWEAVE
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
LOGIC A
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
MISYS
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Beta
0.70
1.06
1.36
0.86
1.30
1.36
1.14
1.36
0.91
0.92
0.47
1.06
1.36

Under Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

Target
1952
1302
418
24
799
374
649
541
6611
6671
202
470
798

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products

Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

LT Rec
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

12M Hi
27.00
129.75
1799.00
490.00
503.50
23.00
144.80
476.70
420.20
262.75
156.63
2109.00
312.40

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy

Target
49
64
977
1120
298
20
219
480
435
500
-22
1765
324

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
0.73
0.84
1.48
1.09
1.11
0.92
1.36
0.75
1.33
0.88
0.48
0.82
0.65

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance

Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR C NSL.
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Page 11 of 15

Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
277.80 167.80
277.80
167.60 113.70
177.00
9500.00 8800.00 10950.00
292.50 240.00
350.00
142.50 115.63
160.00
748.00 590.00
820.00
68.65
56.05
81.70
1.75
1.36
14.00
124.40
95.05
163.70
379.60 311.60
524.00
257.10 197.90
345.00
358.80 318.40
522.00
1082.00 756.50 1093.00
95.70
93.40
259.60
1286.00 977.00 1316.00
1459.00 1183.00 1906.00
1119.00 970.00 1554.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Target
173
127
18024
300
218
368
86
-0
98
327
290
287
806
157
1215
1675
1676

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
1.07
0.72
0.87
0.96
0.70
0.83
0.91
0.67
1.42
1.06
1.65
1.56
1.17
1.27
0.74
1.31
1.30

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Under Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
MOUC HEL GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
WSP GROUP

Price 12M Lo
196.00 166.25
2301.00 1522.00
1129.00 740.50
255.80
99.40
851.00 570.50
353.00 270.00
1030.00 676.50
233.00 192.25
748.50 611.50
32.00
23.75
651.50 512.50
535.00 402.70
923.50 730.00
860.00 727.00
451.30 284.00
231.90 182.20
468.00 296.30
289.90 219.90
91.60
58.85
243.30 214.70
287.20 266.50
2597.00 1744.00
29.50
25.25
39.25
27.75
617.50 445.50
434.60 323.00
289.50 206.80
7.75
4.75
148.50 122.00
645.00 450.00
210.80 144.50
111.00
64.00
89.85
58.20
431.90 299.80
359.63 325.00
257.50 158.25
371.00 300.50
236.70 156.60
563.00 458.00
93.95
90.80
27.25
18.50
74.00
38.50
45.88
36.25
250.00 191.00
53.50
47.00
247.25 160.00

12M Hi
344.00
2316.00
1207.00
271.10
851.00
392.50
1030.00
318.50
767.00
39.75
671.00
568.00
1001.00
860.00
453.00
294.90
484.50
292.10
119.60
532.00
341.25
2605.00
36.00
45.50
623.00
567.00
290.00
78.00
166.50
670.00
301.00
117.50
100.90
438.00
410.00
326.00
393.20
253.00
597.50
130.90
34.00
79.75
52.88
258.00
956.25
361.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

Page 12 of 15

Target
358
1303
1349
133
738
1138
1037
571
739
102
814
1108
1074
1028
500
392
451
410
151
490
838
1703
71
59
1290
460
425
-312
302
768
371
73
54
554
573
368
470
311
708
172
-8
-344
66
609
-9754
605

Beta
0.94
1.16
1.01
1.52
0.56
0.73
0.54
0.34
0.43
0.77
0.71
1.02
#NA
0.20
1.01
1.01
1.11
0.58
0.98
0.65
1.35
0.86
1.14
0.68
1.47
1.35
0.61
0.91
0.39
0.72
1.18
1.40
1.30
0.87
0.82
1.25
0.84
1.58
0.57
1.46
1.31
0.63
0.88
0.90
0.77
0.95

Under Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
218.20 161.00
31.29
30.07
440.40 389.30
71.50
59.75
692.00 472.00
171.50 155.05

12M Hi
232.10
48.92
620.00
84.00
802.00
182.70

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
258
137
360
83
472
188

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
0.92
0.65
0.53
1.27
0.04
0.63

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Over Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Price 12M Lo
201.10 156.00
390.50 282.00
1337.00 1015.00
498.00 302.54
196.90 195.80
582.50 440.50
1150.00 1125.00
219.40 201.60
198.70 190.00
253.10 219.96
59.75
56.00

12M Hi
223.40
505.00
1367.00
498.00
370.20
615.00
1598.00
270.20
342.00
287.40
123.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 13 of 15

Target
162
648
1645
538
407
333
1764
175
385
206
158

Beta
1.41
0.94
0.81
0.77
1.08
0.83
0.94
1.28
1.38
0.88
0.85

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
322.80 278.80
655.00 569.00
751.00 623.50
1720.00 1375.00
620.50 560.00

12M Hi
333.00
659.00
751.00
1720.00
637.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Target
342
844
638
1463
652

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Beta
0.49
0.55
0.59
0.46
0.58

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

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Page 14 of 15

Intellisys 23 April 2012

Intellisys

23 April 2012

www.intellisys.uk.com

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get back
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necessarily a guide to future performance.

Page 15 of 15

Intellisys 23 April 2012