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Stats: Data and Models Quiz A Chapter 11

Name__________________________

A large manufacturer of batteries knows that, historically, 10% of its batteries come off the production line defective, and the remaining 90% of batteries come off the production line in working condition. Conduct a simulation to estimate how many batteries the company needs to pull off the production line in order to be sure of ending up with 10 working batteries. 1. Describe how you will use a random number table to conduct this simulation.

2. Show three trials by clearly labeling the random number table given below. Specify the outcome of each trial. Trial 1: 10242 50692 18977 28370 82669 83236 77479 90618 43707 78695 Trial 2: 81183 48554 60809 39996 81915 25404 33366 92082 04822 79866 Trial 3: 06765 67041 20479 54612 13411 36837 69983 53082 43589 27865

3. State your conclusion.

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Stats: Data and Models Quiz A Chapter 11 Key A large manufacturer of batteries knows that, historically, 3% of its batteries come off the production line defective and cannot be repaired, 7% of its batteries come off the production line defective but can be repaired, and the remaining 90% of batteries come off the production line in working condition. Conduct a simulation to estimate how many batteries the company needs to pull 10 working batteries directly off the production line. 1. Describe how you will use a random number table to conduct this simulation.
Since 10% of the batteries come off of the production line defective and 90% of the batteries come off of the line in working condition, we can look at one digit at a time. Assign the digits: 0 = defective; 1-9 = working. Start at the first digit in the first row, go across one digit at a time, looking for the digits 1-9, which are indicative of working batteries. Count the number of times the digits 1-9 come up until you have 10. Count the number of digits that the trial took to obtain 10 of the desired digits.

2. Show three trials by clearly labeling the random number table given below. Specify the outcome of each trial. Trial 1: 10242 50692 18977 28370 82669 83236 77479 90618 43707 78695 +X+++ +X+++ ++| end of Trial 1: 12 needed to get 10 OK Trial 2: 81183 48554 60809 39996 81915 25404 33366 92082 04822 79866 +++++ +++++| end of Trial 2: 10 needed to get 10 OK Trial 3: 06765 67041 20479 54612 13411 36837 69983 53082 43589 27865 X++++ ++X++ +X+| end of Trial 3: 13 needed to get 10 OK

3. State your conclusion.


It required 12 batteries in Trial 1, 10 batteries in Trial 2, and 13 batteries in Trial 3 to obtain 10 working batteries. The maximum required was 13 batteries. According to this simulation, the company will need to pull at least 13 batteries to be sure of obtaining 10 working batteries.

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Stats: Data and Models Quiz B Chapter 11

Name________________________________

On January 1 of every year, many people watch the Rose Parade on television. The week before the parade is very busy for float builders and decorators. Roses, carnations, and other flowers are purchased from around the world to decorate the floats. Based on past experience, one float decorator found that 10% of the bundles of roses delivered will not open in time for the parade, 20% of the bundles of roses delivered will have bugs on them and be unusable, 60% of the bundles of roses will turn out to be beautiful, and the rest of the bundles of roses delivered will bloom too early and start to discolor before January 1. Conduct a simulation to estimate how many roses the float decorator will need to purchase to have 15 good bundles of roses to place on the float. 1. Describe how you will use a random number table to conduct this simulation.

2. Show three trials by clearly labeling the random number table given below. Specify the outcome for each trial. Trial 1 37542 04805 64894 74296 24805 24037 20636 10402 00822 Trial 2 08422 68953 19645 09303 23209 02560 15953 34764 35080 Trial 3 99019 02529 09376 70715 38311 31165 88676 74397 04436

3.

State your conclusion.

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Stats: Data and Models Quiz B Chapter 11 Key On January 1 of every year, many people watch the Rose Parade on television. The week before the parade is very busy for float builders and decorators. Roses, carnations, and other flowers are purchased from around the world to decorate the floats. Based on past experience, one float decorator found that 10% of the bundles of roses delivered will not open in time for the parade, 20% of the bundles of roses delivered will have bugs on them and be unusable, 60% of the bundles of roses will turn out to be beautiful, and the rest of the bundles of roses delivered will bloom too early and start to discolor before January 1. Conduct a simulation to estimate how many roses the float decorator will need to purchase to have 15 good bundles of roses to place on the float. 1. Describe how you will use a random number table to conduct this simulation.
Look at one digit at a time. Assign the digits: 0 = roses not open; 1 and 2 = roses with bugs; 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 = beautiful roses; and 9 = roses bloomed early. Start at the first digit in the first row, go across the row one digit at a time, looking for the digits 3 8 which are indicative of beautiful roses. Count the number of times the digits 3 8 come up until you have 15. Count the total number of digits that the trial took to obtain 15 of the desired digits. Repeat this trial three times

2. Show three trials by clearly labeling the random number table given below. Specify the outcome for each trial.
Digits 3 8 are designated to be beautiful roses.

Trial 1 37542 04805 64894 74296 24805 24037 20636 10402 00822 ++++X X++X+ +++X+ ++XX+ X+| end of trial 1: 22 bundles needed to get 15 OK Trial 2 08422 68953 19645 09303 23209 02560 15953 34764 35080 X++XX ++X++ XX+++ XX+X+ X+XXX XX++X X+| end of trial 2: 32 bundles needed Trial 3 99019 02529 09376 70715 38311 31165 88676 74397 04436 XXXXX XX+XX XX+++ +X+X+ +++XX +XX++ ++| end of trial 3: 32 bundles needed

3. State your conclusion.


It required 22 bundles in Trial 1, 32 bundles in trial 2, and 32 bundles in trial 3 to obtain 15 bundles of beautiful roses for the float. The maximum required was 32 bundles. According to this simulation, the float decorator will need to purchase at least 32 bundles of roses to be sure of obtaining 15 bundles of beautiful roses for the float.

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Stats: Data and Models Quiz C Chapter 11

Name________________________________

An agriculture student is raising chickens as part of a project. He feeds and waters them every day, and collects the eggs every other day, selling them to people in the neighborhood. He has found that each hens nest will contain from 0 to 2 eggs. Based on past experience he estimates that there will be no eggs in 10% of the nests, one egg in 30% of the nests, and 2 eggs in the other 60%. Conduct a simulation to estimate how many nests the student must visit to collect a dozen eggs. 1. Describe how you will use a random number table to conduct this simulation.

2. Show three trials by clearly labeling the random number table given below. Specify the outcome for each trial. Trial 1 5 7 5 2 8 Trial 2 9 0 6 7 6 Trial 3 3 1 5 7 4

7 8 3 0 5

6 3 5 0 8

2 9 4 1 8

3 1 9 9 3

5 4 6 3 6

1 7 8 7 7

2 8 0 4 2

7 2 6 2 1

8 4 8 1 8

3. State your conclusion.

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Stats: Data and Models Quiz C Chapter 11 Key As a 4-H project, Billy is raising chickens. He feeds and waters them every day, and collects the eggs every other day, selling them to people in the neighborhood. He has found that each hens nest will contain from 0 to 2 eggs. Based on past experience he estimates that there will be no eggs in 10% of the nests, one egg in 30% of the nests, and 2 eggs in the other 60%. Conduct a simulation to estimate how many nests Billy will have to visit to collect a dozen eggs. 1. Describe how you will use a random number table to conduct this simulation.
Look at one digit at a time. Let 0 = no eggs; 1, 2, 3 = one egg; 4 9 = two eggs. Go across the row of digits one at a time, adding up the number of eggs until there are 12 or more. Count the number of nests visited.

2. Show three trials by clearly labeling the random number table given below. Specify the outcome for each trial. 5 7 5 2 8 2 2 2 1 2 9 0 6 7 6 2 0 2 2 2 3 1 5 7 4 1 1 2 2 2 3. State your conclusion.
According to this simulation, Billy will have to visit an average of 8 nests to collect a dozen eggs.

7 8 3 0 5 6 3 5 0 8 2 2| 13 eggs, 7 nests 3 1 9 9 3 5 4 6 3 6 1 1 2| 12 eggs, 8 nests 2 8 0 4 2 7 2 6 2 1 1 2 0 2| 13 eggs, 9 nests

2 9 4 1 8

1 7 8 7 7

8 4 8 1 8

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Stats: Data and Models - Investigative Task

Chapter 11

ESP
Your friend claims he has ESP. Being properly skeptical, you decide to test his claim. Here is your plan. You will get ten volunteers to sign their names on identical cards, and seal the cards in identical envelopes. You will then shuffle the pile of envelopes, and hand them to your friend. Using his alleged powers of extrasensory perception, he will distribute the envelopes back to the volunteers, trying to match each person with the one containing the proper signature. Of course, it will be quite stunning if, when the ten volunteers open the envelopes, they all find their own signatures. If that happens you will certainly believe he really does have ESP. But thats unlikely. Chances are hell match some people with their signatures and miss others. You need to know how well an ordinary non-ESP-endowed person might do just by chance. Then you can decide how many matches your friend needs to make to convince you that he does have some mystical insight. Before actually conducting this test then, you need to simulate it. You may use either your calculator or the random number table to determine how many matches you would consider to be statistically significant. Write a report in which you clearly explain your procedure, show the results of at least 20 trials, and state your conclusion.

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Stats: Data and Models Investigative Task ESP Components Creates a successful simulation: Think o randomizes the order of the envelopes o avoids giving any envelope out twice Conducts the simulation: o describes the method clearly Show o shows the results of 20 trials, clearly labeled o defines the correct response variable States a conclusion: o establishes a reasonable decision rule o justifies the rule Tell o does not confuse the model with the actual test to be conducted

Chapter 11 Comments

Components are scored as Essentially correct, Partially correct, or Incorrect 1: The Method E: randomizes order of envelopes; avoids giving any out twice P: randomizes order but allows repetitions OR uses P(match) = 10% I: uses an inappropriate model (ex: 1 = match, 0 = miss) 2: The Simulation E: explains the procedure well, clearly labels 20+ runs, and counts the number of matches P: meets only two of these requirements I: meets fewer that two of these requirements 3: Interpretation E: establishes a standard of proof requiring an unusual number of matches consistent with the simulation and justifies that rule based on the simulation, in the proper context P: fails to justify the decision rule OR confuses the model with reality OR uses % or mean number of matches I: fails to address the issue of statistical significance Scoring

Score:
4 = EEE 3 = {EEP; also EPP if the Ps are very good} 2 = {EEI, EPP, PPP; also EPI if the P is very good} 1 = {EPI, PPI} Grade: A = 4, B = 3, and so on, with +/- determined by the quality of partially correct responses and the clarity of communication.

Name _______________________________

Score ____ Grade ____

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NOTE: We present a model solution with some trepidation. This is not a scoring key, just an example. Many other approaches could fully satisfy the requirements outlined in the scoring rubric. That (not this) is the standard by which student responses should be evaluated. Model Solution Investigative Task ESP My friend claims he has ESP. He will attempt to prove this claim by correctly passing out envelopes containing the signatures of 10 volunteers to the correct person. In order to establish a baseline for comparison, I will perform a simulation to see how many envelopes might be handed back correctly, strictly due to chance. A component of the simulation is handing back one envelope. Let random digits 0-9 represent the envelopes from the 10 volunteers. One trial will consist of A sequence of random digits with no repeats, which will represent the shuffled envelopes. The random sequence will be compared to the sequence 0123456789, representing the volunteers. The response variable is the number of matches between the random sequence and the ordered sequence. The statistic of interest will be the maximum number of matches.
Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0123456789 9210743865 7329016854 3218790456 1968753024 1245609783 7948603512 0471689253 2180794356 4831560927 5297806413 1275348906 4159623087 1697403825 8267031495 1497306852 4175690823 7120963584 8321796450 4583129076 8475023916 Matches 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 3 2 1 0

According to the simulation, it would not be unusual to see three correct matches, simply due to chance. My friend would have to do better than that, say 5 or 6 matches, before I would begin to seriously consider the possibility that he had ESP.

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