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TEXT 1

Applied Mathematics In modern times mathematics has become an inseparable part of human culture, in which it plays a fundamental role. Throughout the centuries mathematics has been a crucial tool in the hands of mankind. It has allowed us to understand the fundamental principles of the universe, for example Newton's law of gravity, Einstein's equivalence of mass and energy, Maxwell's equations of electromagnetism, the laws of quantum mechanics for elementary particles, and even the Big Bang theory. The advances in interplanetary exploration and rapid development of computer technology wouldn't have been possible without mathematics. Scientists, in their struggle to improve our understanding, have untangled the principal problems of biology and unveiled the secrets of life. However, the times when it was sufficient for a biologist to know only elementary arithmetic and graphs of functions are long gone. Today, they need much more advanced mathematics like linear and multilinear algebras, mathematical analysis, the theory of differential and functional equations, statistics and discrete mathematics. Branches of biology like genetics or ecology are considered as parts of mathematics. Mathematics also opens new possibilities for medicine. Mathematical models are used to understand our bodies and to find optimal treatment for diseases. More and more mathematics is used in the social sciences like economics, psychology, sociology, demography, social epidemiology and criminology. Applied mathematics is a collection of theories, techniques, and terminology that have practical application in various fields of science, including, but not limited to, astronomy, chemistry, dynamics, engineering, physics and even mathematics itself. A very simple example of the use of applied mathematics in physics is the equation F=kma where F is the force to be determined, k is a constant for a particular system of units. k is usually set to unity (in other words, k=1) when determining the force exerted by an object without consideration of the pull of the earth's gravity. The variable m is the mass of the object and a is the acceleration the object exhibits at a given moment in time. From this equation, once values for two of the variables have been determined, and assuming k=1, the remaining value can be determined. This equation, then, provides further desired information for the physical phenomenon being studied. The uses of applied mathematics through much more complex equations provide ways to quantify many observed properties of the universe as well as matters of theory that are as yet impossible to observe directly. The following is another example of the use of applied mathematics in other fields of knowledge. Digital face recognition. Uses and applications of computer-aided face recognition: FBIs most wanted, criminal apprehension, high profile security. To begin with, a recognition system has to be unaffected by both external changes, like environmental light, and the persons position and distance from the camera, and internal variations, like facial expression, aging, and makeup. Because most commercial applications use large databases of faces, recognition systems have to be computationally efficient. This is where math comes into play. Most face recognition algorithms fall into one of two main groups: featurebased and image-based algorithms. Feature-based methods explore a set of geometric features, such as the distance between the eyes or the size of the eyes, and use these measures to represent the given face. These features are computed using simple correlation filters, and are somewhat immune to changes in light sources, and camera position. However, they are sensitive to aging and facial expressions. Image-based systems, the other main approach to face recognition, are based on ideas like eigenfaces, which are a related set of facial characteristics that a computer uses to recognize a persons face. Faces actually vary according to a mere 100 factors. The computer must understand what these 100 factors are. Each face image is deconstructed into separate set of related facial

characteristics and an algorithm is created so that the computer can understand the image and analyze it in comparison to others. Interesting Fact: during the 2001 Super Bowl in Tampa, Florida the city used face recognition technology to scan the faces of people in crowds, comparing them with images in a database of digital mug shots. ASSIGNMENTS 1. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , , , , , , , , , . 2. Complete each of the following statements with the best ending from the box below: a) Throughout the centuries mathematics has played a crucial role in human culture because b) The times when it was sufficient for a biologist to know only elementary arithmetic and graphs of functions are long gone and c) Applied mathematics is a collection of theories, techniques, and terminology that have practical application in various fields of science, for example i) astronomy, chemistry, dynamics, engineering, physics and even mathematics itself. ii) now genetics or ecology are considered as parts of mathematics. iii) nowadays, they need much more advanced mathematics like linear and multilinear algebras, mathematical analysis, the theory of differential and functional equations, statistics and discrete mathematics. iv) it has untangled the principal problems of biology and unveiled the secrets of life. v) it has helped us to understand the fundamental principles of the universe. vi) the advances in interplanetary exploration and rapid development of computer technology wouldn't have been possible without mathematics. vii) the social sciences like economics, psychology, sociology, demography, social epidemiology and criminology. 3. Answer the questions: a) Is the role of mathematics in the history of mankind really crucial? Why? b) Why is it necessary for every scientist to be an expert in mathematics nowadays? c) In which fields of knowledge is mathematics used? d) What is applied mathematics? Give the definition. e) Which two groups do most face recognition algorithms fall into? 4. Give a short summary of the text. TEXT 2 Mathematics in Demography Leonardo of Pisa (Fibonacci, 1202) proposed one of the earliest mathematical models for population growth. The problem situation stated below is a reworking of Fibonacci's original problem which generates an introductory age-specific population model.

Imagine that we start with one pair of rabbits (one female and one male). After N days, this pair matures to reproductive age and immediately produces a new pair. After N more days, the first pair again produces offspring. Thus, each pair of rabbits will reproduce two times during their lifetime (exactly one pair immediately at the start of each new stage, where "pair" always means one female and one male), at intervals separated by N days, and each new pair of rabbits will go on in a similar fashion. The problem statement suggests that the rabbit population can be broken down into three groups: "newly born", "young adults" and "mature adults". Each pair of newly born rabbits survives to become young adults and to produce one new pair of offspring at this stage. Each pair of young adults survives to become mature adults and to produce another pair of offspring. Finally, each pair of mature adults moves on to "rabbit heaven"; no survival is allowed after stage 3. This process of moving through the age-structure and the patterns that emerge can be represented in two ways: with diagrams, to break down and understand the dynamics of the problem with spreadsheets, to capture patterns and create graphs. Analysis by Diagram The first step in understanding the model is to find a way to "make sense" of the problem situation. A chart or diagram like the one shown below is helpful. The columns display the age structure for each of the first 6 time steps. The rows show the first 6 generations. Diagram Breakdown of the Rabbit Population Generation 1 NB YA MA 2 NB YA MA NB YA MA 3 NB YA MA NB YA MA NB YA MA 4 NB YA MA NB YA NB YA NB YA NB YA 5 NB YA NB NB NB NB NB NB NB 6 NB Time Step Newly Born Young Adult Mature Adult 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 3 2 1 1 4 3 2 1 5 5 3 2 6 8 5 3

Total

10

16

This diagram captures many of the key aspects of the growth process of this rabbit population. Viewing the chart by columns, we can see the age-specific breakdown for each timestep. For example, in the 4th column we see that there are 3 newly born, 2 young adults and 1 mature adult. Viewing the chart by rows, we see the progression of the pairs born in a given generation as they move through the age-specific categories for the rabbit population. For example, the two pairs born in the 3rd generation become young adults in the next column, contributing 2 pairs of newly born to the 4th generation below them; they then survive to produce one last time, contributing to the 5th generation. Analysis by Spreadsheet The information contained in the diagram can then be summarized in a spreadsheet like the one shown below. Time Newly Young Mature Total of Step Born Adults Adults Rabbits 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 3 2 1 1 4 4 3 2 1 6 5 5 3 2 10 6 8 5 3 16 7 13 8 5 26 8 21 13 8 42 9 34 21 13 68 10 55 34 21 110 Once the spreadsheet has been created, we can view large amounts of data conveniently, include the data in reports, and easily create graphs. Also, we can vary the assumptions of the model and explore variations of the problem situation quickly. According to Eves and Boyer, Fibonacci's original problem was stated as follows: How many pairs of rabbits can be produced from a single pair in a year if every month each pair begins a new pair which from the second month on becomes productive? The sequence of rabbits born each month is the Fibonacci sequence. ASSIGNMENTS 1. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , , . 2. According to the information given in the text, which three of the following are true of the diagram? a) The diagram captures many of the key aspects of the growth process of this rabbit population. b) Viewing the chart by columns, we can see the age-specific breakdown for each time-step. c) In the 5th column we see that there are 3 newly born, 3 young adults and 1 mature adult. d) Viewing the chart by rows, we see the progression of the pairs born in a given generation.

e) The two pairs born in the 3rd generation become young adults in the next column, contributing 3 pairs of newly born to the 4th generation below them. 3. Answer the questions: a) Who proposed the earliest mathematical models for population growth? b) How many times does each pair of rabbits reproduce during their lifetime? c) Into which groups can the rabbit population be broken down? d) In how many ways can the process of moving through the age-structure and the patterns that emerge be represented? What are they? e) State the original Fibonacci's problem. 4. Speak on the age-specific population model. TEXT 3 Mathematics in History I A. Mathematics is trying to make its contribution in history, where it addresses a very serious problem of reliability of the accounts of historical events. How can we be sure that the historical events that we learn about in school or from books really took place? Maybe some of them are simply fairy tales that, because of some mysterious circumstances, are considered now to be historical facts. B. The fundamental question that should be asked is what is the origin of our historical knowledge. We all learned our history at school and generally accepted it as a true description of the actual events. However, even in our lifetime some of the recent historical events that we witnessed are not always described in the way we remember them. How can we be sure that the description of the events that took place centuries ago is accurate? Moreover, why should we believe that these historical events really happened at the time and place that is allocated to them? In order to answer these questions we must look at the history of history. C. The early historians (for example Thucydides, Herodotus, Ssu-ma Ch'ien and others) were describing history of small territories over short periods of time. Ancient and medieval manuscripts that are available today usually present accounts of events in separate countries over a time scale of no more than one or two centuries. The fundamental problem encountered by historians in 16th and 17th centuries working on reconstruction of the global history of mankind was putting together in chronological order all of the manuscripts, chronicles and other historical documents to obtain a unified and consistent account of all historical events. This was an extremely difficult problem for that time. The main obstacle was that most of the manuscripts were not dated, or used an unknown or archaic system of dating, and contained only a description of a sequence of successive events. It should be stressed out that the most of historical documents that we have today, related to ancient and medieval times, are not original but only copies made some time ago, often under suspicious circumstances. D. The idea of reconstructing global history emerged during the late Renaissance. The official historical chronology, presently commonly acknowledged, was originated by the Italian theologian and scientist I. Scaliger (1540-1609). He determined the exact dates of the most important historical events like the Peloponnesian War, Trojan War, founding of Rome, etc., but did not prove any of his dates. His followers continued this work and it is commonly accepted that the official chronology was given its final shape by D. Petavius (1583-1652). It is strange that other historians, in spite of the scientific advantages, very rarely modified the dates of the basic historical events assigned by Scaliger and Petavius.

E. According to Scaliger, Petavius and their followers, the events of the ancient world took place from about 3,500 years B.C. till the fifth century A.D. As their results were never independently confirmed, there is an outstanding question of the credibility of this chronology. By the way, not all of the statements made by Scaliger turned out to be true, as for example, his geometrical proof of the quadrature of the circle, which he defended ferociously all his life. F. Even among scholars, not all contemporaries of Scaliger and Petavius, supported their chronology. For example, in the sixteenth century D. Arcilla, a professor of Salamanca University in Spain, claimed that all ancient history was a fabrication made in the middle ages. The director of the French Royal Library, Jean Hardouin (1646-1729) declared that practically all the antiquities and ancient texts were created (or falsified) after 12th century. The most famous scientist of that epoch, Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727), was also against the chronology of Scaliger and Petavius. Newton published a large monograph entitled "The Chronology of Ancient Kingdoms Amended," in which he re-dated key ancient events by shifting them several hundreds years forward. There were many more scientists, philologists, historians, and jurists who objected to the chronology of Scaliger and Petavius. We should also mention recent and contemporary critics of the conventional chronology in Germany, including W. Kammeier, H. Illig, U. Topper, H-U. Niemitz and G. Heinsohn. G. The first scholar who suggested new powerful methods to correct chronological mistakes, was prominent Russian scientist N.A. Morozov (1854-1946). He published a fundamental monograph composed of seven large volumes, entitled "Christ. History of Human Culture from the Standpoint of the Natural Sciences". Morozov analyzed in it the conventional chronology using the latest discoveries in mathematics, astronomy, linguistics, philology and geology. He suggested a new version of the global chronology and a historical reconstruction. According to N.A. Morozov all the ancient events occurred after 3rd century AD. H. In 1970s at the Moscow State University, a group of young mathematicians undertook the task of the verification and further development of Morozov's research in global chronology. One of them, professor A.T. Fomenko introduced several new methods of independent dating and after several years of investigation he proposed a new version of global chronology, which was even more radical that the version of N.A. Morozov. He claimed that the recorded history of mankind started not earlier than the year 900 AD, while the majority of historical events, which make our history, refer to the time after the year 1300 AD. ASSIGNMENTS 1. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , . 2. The text has seven paragraphs. Which paragraph mentions the following? i) A.T. Fomenkos introduction of a new version of global chronology. ii) Lots of scientists objected to the chronology of Scaliger and Petavius. iii) It was in the late Renaissance when the idea of reconstructing global history emerged. iv) History should not be accepted as a true description of the actual events without any doubt. v) New powerful methods to correct chronological mistakes were suggested for the first time by a prominent Russian scientist. vi) Applied mathematics can be used in history. vii) The most difficult thing to do for historians in 16th and 17th centuries was to put together in chronological order all of the manuscripts, chronicles and other historical documents to obtain a unified and consistent account of all historical events. viii) Scaliger claimed that the events of the ancient world took place from about 3,500 years B.C. till the fifth century A.D.

3. Answer the questions: a) Can we be sure that the historical events that we learn about in school or from books really took place? b) What should we look at the history of history for? c) What was the fundamental problem encountered by historians in 16th and 17th centuries? d) Who was the first scientist to propose the idea of reconstructing global history? e) Who was the first Russian scientist to suggest new powerful methods to correct chronological mistakes? f) What was professor Fomenkos claim? 4. Retell the text, using the following expressions: to begin with, next, then, in addition to, as a consequence of this, however, in other words, in fact, thus, in summary, therefore, finally. TEXT 4 Mathematics in History II In collaboration with G.V. Nosovskij, A.T. Fomenko continued his work on the development of new independent scientific methods for dating of ancient events. In 1993-1996, completely new results were established by them on the chronology of Russia and China. Their work resulted in stating the New Chronology, which is a new concept of the global chronology and history. It is based on the chronological version of A.T. Fomenko, to which new proofs and improvements were introduced. It led to the further shifting of the "starting point" of the known history to the 11th century AD. From the point of view of mathematics, the chronology represents an object called a function. More precisely, we can write it as a function denoted by H(t, x1,x2), which depends on the three variables: t - the time of a historical event and (x1,x2) - the geographical coordinates (longitude and latitude) of the place where this event occurred, or we can simply say that its domain is the Cartesian product of numeric half line and the sphere. The values of the function H(t, x1,x2) represent the fragments of historical recordings describing this particular event. Figure 1

Figure 1 illustrates the "chronology" function H. On the left hand side of Figure 1 the concentric spheres represent the domain of H. More precisely, the straight vertical arrow stands for the time axis where the points correspond to specific dates. For example, the inside coloured sphere illustrates events of the year 1320 at specific locations. The larger spheres on this figure correspond to the years 1415 and 1985. In this way, with every date in history we can associate a

sphere on which the corresponding events are indicated. To every place on the Earth we can associate a ray originating at its centre to mark the dates of the events that occurred at this place. The books symbolize available descriptions of the historical events. The curved arrows indicate the exact fragments of the available descriptions corresponding to certain concrete events. Briefly, the chronology is a database parameterized by points of the Cartesian product R+ x S2, i.e. the product of the half-axis R+ and the sphere S2. Naturally, this function is not convenient for mathematical analysis. Clearly the set of values of the function H does not have any natural mathematical structure. However, the information contained in the function H allows us, on the one side, to construct a variety of scalar (numeric) functions which can be easily analyzed with mathematical methods, and on the other side, to provide essential information on the nature of the historical events. An example of a simple scalar function, which can be easily extracted from the historical database, is the functions of the time-span of the reign of subsequent rulers belonging to a certain specific dynasty. Such a `dynasty' function can be illustrated by its graph, see Figure 2. Figure 2

On the horizontal axis the subsequent numbers of the consecutive rulers (or names of kings, emperors, etc.) are placed and on the vertical axis the length of the reign of the corresponding ruler is marked. We will call such a sequence of rulers a numerical dynasty or simply a dynasty. The dynasty in the above example consists of 12 rulers. There is another way to analyze chronicles by extracting numerical information from them. For example we can associate with a text X a sequence of integers, which are the numbers of words H(X(T)) in the chapter describing the year T (or simply the volume of a year fragment). We call H(X(T)) the volume function for X. There are also possibilities for other numerical functions like the number of references to the year T in subsequent years, the number of all names of historical persons listed in the text, or the frequencies showing how often these names were mentioned in the whole text. In his monograph A.T. Fomenko used these functions to analyze similarities and differences between documents referring either to the same epoch or two different epochs. It is clear that for two different documents X and Y the functions H(X(T)) and H(Y(T)) can be completely different even if they refer to the same epoch. However, if the functions H(X(T)) and H(Y(T)) have local maxima practically at the same positions it means that these two chronicles describe the same historical epoch. A.T. Fomenko called it the principle of maximal correlation. This principle was empirically checked using the reliable historical data of 16th - 19th centuries, and its correctness was confirmed. Therefore, the locations of the maxima constitute the numerical data that can be associated with the text X in order to characterize the epoch it is referring to. The methods of Fomenko are based on theoretical and numerical analysis of these and other similar functions describing historical data. In particular, he introduces a routine for distinguishing functions referring to different dynasties and defines a certain measure of distinctiveness between them (or a probability measure for distinctiveness). In simple words, he found a way to measure a `distance' between the above numerical functions (like for example dynasty functions) in a similar way to measuring distance between two different locations. Mathematicians say that in such a situation they are dealing with a metric space. The geometry of such metric spaces is definitely different from the geometry we learn in school, but the usual properties related to the measurement

of distances are still valid in these spaces. If a distance between towns A and B is less than one kilometre we are justified to think that in fact A and B represent the same town. Similarly, if in the space of functions a distance between two dynasty functions is sufficiently small we may think that indeed they represent the same dynasty. These methods were extensively tested on the data referring to well documented. It was proved that if two dynasty functions (for 15 rulers) or volume functions were not related, the measure of distinctiveness between numerical functions associated with these dynasties was between 1 and 10-4. However, in the case of related events from the same epoch, the measure of distinctiveness was never higher than 10-8. ASSIGNMENTS 1. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , , , , , . 2. Complete the summary below using words from the box: G.V. Nosovskij and A.T. Fomenko continued their work on the development of new independent scientific methods for dating of (1)_____ events. In 1993-1996 they established new (2)_____ of Russia and China. On the whole their New Chronology moved the (3)_____ of the known history to the 11th century AD. Among the methods used by A.T. Fomenko the most famous are: generating of a (4)_____, when time-span of the reign of subsequent rulers belonging to a certain specific dynasty is represented; (5)_____ chronicles by extracting numerical information from them; geometry of (6)_____, which differs considerably from the geometry we learn at school. starting point, chronology, analyzing, simple scalar function, metric spaces, ancient 3. Answer the questions: a) What is the starting point of the known history according to new chronology of A.T. Fomenko and G.V. Nosovsky? b) What does the chronology represent from the point of view of mathematics? c) What kind of function can the time-span of the reign of subsequent rulers belonging to a certain specific dynasty represent? d) What is analyzed with the help of the principle of maximal correlation? e) In which situations do mathematicians deal with a metric space? 4. Name all the methods for dating of ancient events mentioned in the text. 5. Give a short characterization of each method. TEXT 5 Mathematics in History III It is difficult to imagine that two different dynasties could have identical or almost identical dynasty functions. The probability of such a coincidence is extremely small already for dynasties composed of 10 rulers. Nevertheless, the number of such coincidences, for even longer dynasties of 15 rulers, turns out to be unexpectedly large. N.A. Morozov, who noticed the coincidence

between the ancient Rome and the ancient Jewish state, discovered the first examples of surprisingly identical pairs of dynasty graphs. A formal method to study such similarities was introduced by A.T. Fomenko. There is another surprise, besides coincidence of the dynasty functions, the other numerical functions confirm with very high probability that these dynasties are indeed the same. It brings us to a suspicion that in fact we are dealing with repetitions in the conventional version of the history. Fomenko discovered dozens of strong coincidences, sometimes between three and more dynasties. But, there are no more such coincidences in the history of the better-documented epochs, for example starting from the 16th century. As an example, we would like to discuss two dynasties, one the dynasty of the Holy RomanGerman Empire (10th - 13th AD) and another one of the Jewish kings according the Bible (9th 5th BC). On Figure 3, we represent the vertical time line with two graphs of reign durations on its opposite sides for comparison. On this chart, we start the dates for the dynasty of Jewish kings in the year zero, which is not a date according to some era but simply indicates the starting "zero" point for this dynasty. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, the beginning of this dynasty is around 922 B.C. Figure 3 was taken from A.T. Fomenko monograph. Figure 3

There are many more examples of similar dynasty pairs in the conventional chronology. For instance, the parallel between the first period of the Roman episcopate in 141-314 A.D. and the second period of the Roman episcopate in 314-532 A.D. is shown in Figure 4. Figure 4

On Figure 5, we present another pair of graphs, this time without annotations. All these graphs were also taken from the monograph. Figure 5

These parallels suggest that the traditional history of ancient times consist of multiple recounts of the same events scattered in many locations at various times. The first scientist who realized it was N.A. Morozov. Further progress was made by A.T. Fomenko who succeeded to decipher the principle structure of these duplicates in Roman and Biblical history. On Figure 6, we show a graphical representation of his result related to the Roman and European history. The chronological blocks annotated by the same letters represent duplicates in the conventional chronology.

Figure 6

We will discuss some of typical arguments against the New Chronology. One of the most popular arguments in support of the conventional chronology is that the carbon-14 dating method supports it. But in fact it is not true. The carbon-14 method, which was discovered by Willard Libby, is based on the measurement of the radiocarbon level in organic samples. It assumes essentially uniform level of the isotope carbon-14 in every living material, but it is now clear that carbon-14 was never homogeneously distributed. In fact, in order to improve its "accuracy," the carbon-14 method was calibrated using samples of "known" age. It was done by constructing the so-called calibration curves, which are dependent on the conventional chronology. That means the carbon-14 dating method is secondary and is not able either confirm or discard any chronological theory. In addition, the errors induced by this method exceed all reasonable time intervals. We would like to point out that if the global chronology was changed, the carbon-14 dating method would also work nicely with the new dating system. It is not possible to present here a complete discussion of this complicated problem. There are other arguments, of different type, claiming that there is nothing abnormal in coincidence of dynasty functions for different dynasties. For instance, we know that the probability of having winning lottery is very small but still there are communities that have one or more lottery winners. So, even very unlike events could happen. Critics of the New Chronology often mention that biographies of certain rulers, like Napoleon and Hitler (both dictators) are quite similar, so by applying the method of Morozov and Fomenko we should consider them to be the same person and ultimately make a senseless statement that the first 20 years of the 19th century are simply the years thirties and forties of the 20th century. There are many more similar arguments, but all of them miss the point that extremely rare events only happen in large samples. For example, although the chances of having a winning lottery ticket are extremely small, nevertheless the probability that somebody wins is one. But, this is not the case with the unrelated dynasty functions, for which the coincidence in the whole sample is even less probable than the coincidence of two random fingerprints. There is also a claim that the "strange" coincidences between dynasty functions could be removed by making appropriate corrections of the historical data. However, even with modified dates the probability arguments still hold. Regarding the archaeological dating, we should point out that it is closely dependent on the conventional chronology. The usual dating procedure in archaeology is based on the comparison of the excavated objects with objects already dated. In this procedure, finding some objects of identifiable style or origin can lead to a conclusion of the age of the whole site. The whole process is highly subjective and cannot be considered as a proof of the conventional chronology.

ASSIGNMENTS

1. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , , , , , , . 2. The list below gives some of the typical arguments against the New Chronology. Which three of the arguments are mentioned in the text? a) The first 20 years of the 19th century are simply the years thirties and forties of the 20th century. b) The "strange" coincidences between dynasty functions could be removed by making appropriate corrections of the historical data. c) The carbon-14 dating method supports conventional chronology. d) The probability of winning a lottery is quite small. e) Even very unlike events could happen. g) Identical pairs of dynasty graphs mean that these dynasties are indeed the same. h) There is nothing abnormal in coincidence of dynasty functions for different dynasties. i) All the methods proposed by A.T. Fomenko are highly subjective and devoid of scientific approach. 3. Answer the questions: a) Who introduced a formal method to study similarities and coincidences in history? b) Are there any coincidences in the history of the better-documented epochs, starting from the 16th century? c) What do parallels representing reign durations for comparison suggest? d) What are the typical arguments against the New Chronology? e) What chronology do you personally believe: the conventional or the new one? 4. Give a short summary of the text. TEXT 6 Mathematics in Lexicography I Ambiguity is ubiquitous in natural language. The most common form of ambiguity concerns the meanings of individual words, as in the following examples: The minister decided to leave the party. (church minister/government minister, drinks party/political party) Hes a curious individual. (odd/nosey) The last example involves homographs (different words which happen to be spelled the same). However, it should be noted that only a small percentage of word sense ambiguity is due to homography. Many words have gained multiple senses by metonymy or by figurative or metaphorical uses. The resulting senses are sufficiently different to be considered by lexicographers as distinct concepts (e.g., political party/drinks party). This text describes a stochastic model of the creation of word senses. This model not only explains the near-exponential rule (the number of senses per word in a monolingual dictionary has an approximately exponential distribution), but also provides a deeper insight into the process of naming. Let LD be a language as defined by the set of (word, sense) pairs in a dictionary D. We consider the evolution of the language LD over time. We must always bear in mind that LD is, of course, only an approximate representation of the semantics of the corresponding natural language.

For example, the compiler of a dictionary may choose to include archaic words as a historical record or to exclude whole categories of words such as slang or technical terms. Consider the evolution of LD as a stochastic process in which each step is either (a) the elimination of a word sense (by obsolescence), (b) the introduction of a new word (by creation, borrowing, word-formation, or any other mechanism), or (c) the addition of a new sense for an existing word (by association with an existing sense). Let t be the probability of a step of type (a), u the probability of a step of type (b), and v the probability of a step of type (c). Note that t + u + v = 1. The parameters of our model t, u, v are unknowns which will be estimated from the observed values of Ns (the number of words with s senses). We make the following simplifying assumptions: 1. New-word single-sense assumption: When a neologism enters the language LD, it has a single sense. 2. Independence of obsolescence and number of senses: The probability that a (word, sense) pair leaves the language LD by obsolescence is independent of the number of senses this word has in LD. The new-word single-sense assumption is an essential part of our model. To test it we require two editions of the same dictionary. The 1994 edition of the Dictionnaire de lacadmie franaise indicates which words are new compared to the 1935 edition. Less than 17% of these words are polysemic. Furthermore, this corresponds, according to our model and to within-sample error, to the proportion of originally monosemic words entering the language that can be expected to acquire new senses during the period between the publication of the two editions. Assumption 2 above is not as important as assumption 1, since later we restrict ourselves to a no-obsolescence model. The set of s senses of an ambiguous word may correspond to a number c of essentially distinct concepts, where c is some number between one and s. For example, the plumbing and anatomy senses of joint correspond to the same concept, since they could inspire the same new senses by association. The group of criminals sense of joint clearly corresponds to a different concept, since it could inspire a very different set of new senses by association. Associations inspired by distinct concepts are assumed to occur independently. We assume that a word with s senses in LD represents on average 1 + (s 1) concepts. We call the concept creation factor (since, in a no-obsolescence model, is simply the probability that a new sense for a word w can be considered a new concept compared to the existing senses for w).We can now state a third assumption: 3. Associations are with concepts: The probability that a concept gives rise to a new sense for a word w by association is proportional to the number of concepts represented by w in LD, which is assumed to be on average 1 + (s 1), where s is the number of senses of w and is a constant. The concept creation factor is another unknown which will be estimated from the values of Ns. Table 1 Number Ns of words with s senses in samples from the 1933 and the 1993 edition of the Shorter Oxford English Dictionary. 1933 1993 N1 427 403 N2 186 176 N3 104 86 N4 49 44 N5 24 32 N6 15 16 N7 22 14 N8 6 7 N9 8 1

4. Stationary-state hypothesis: LD considered as a stochastic process is in a stationary state, in the sense that the probability P(s) that an arbitrary word of LD has exactly s senses does not change as LD evolves. To test the validity of the stationary-state hypothesis, we compared the 1933 and 1993 editions of the Shorter Oxford English Dictionary (SOED). In the space of 60 years, the number of words in the SOED increased by 24%. Nevertheless the values of P(s) (s = 1, 2, . . . , 9) remained almost constant. A chi-square test revealed that the differences in the values of P(s) (s = 1, 2, . . .) could be accounted for by sampling error. The corresponding values of Ns are given in Table 1. ASSIGNMENTS 1. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 2. Match: Stationary-state hypothesis The probability that a concept gives rise to a new sense for a word w by association is proportional to the number of concepts represented by w in LD, which is assumed to be on average 1 + (s 1), where s is the number of senses of w and is a constant. New-word single-sense assumption LD considered as a stochastic process is in a stationary state, in the sense that the probability P(s) that an arbitrary word of LD has exactly s senses does not change as LD evolves. Associations are with concepts The probability that a (word, sense) pair leaves the language LD by obsolescence is independent of the number of senses this word has in LD. Independence of obsolescence and When a neologism enters the language it has a number of senses single sense. 3. Answer the questions: a) What is the most common form of ambiguity? b) What steps of language evolution are mentioned in the text? c) How many senses does a neologism have when it enters the language, according to the first simplifying assumption? d) How can the new-word single-sense assumption be tested? e) How do we test the validity of the stationary-state hypothesis? 4. Name all the simplifying assumptions mentioned in the text. 5. Speak on the way mathematics is used in lexicography. TEXT 7

Mathematics in Lexicography II Let m be the expected number of senses per word in LD. Since m = sP(s) (1) s=1 and the values of P(s) are constant by the stationary-state hypothesis, m is also a constant. The expected net increase in the number of word senses in LD during one step of the process is t + (1 t) = 1 2t, since the probability that a word sense is lost by obsolescence is t and the probability that a word sense is gained is 1 t. If r denotes the expected net increase in the number of words in LD during one step of the process, then we must have (12t)/r = m, since m is a constant. Thus r = (1 2t)/m (2)

Note that the number of words in LD would be constant if and only if t = 0.5. Let pout(s) represent the probability that the next change in the language LD is that a word with s senses loses one of its senses by obsolescence. Let pin(s) represent the probability that the next change in LD is that a word with s senses gains a new sense. Note that pout(s) = t and pin(s) = v, by the definitions of t and v. s=1 s=1 By the stationary-state hypothesis, the expected net increase in Ns (the number of words in LD with exactly s senses) during one step must be proportional to P(s). Denote the expected net increase in Ns by s = dP(s), for some constant d. We then have s = d, since p(s) = 1. But s = r since the total s=1 s=1 s=1 expected increase in the number of words is r. Thus s = rP(s) = (1 2t)P(s)/m (by equation (2)). We can also express s, the expected net increase in Ns, in terms of the probabilities pin(s) and pout(s), which gives the following equation: (1 2t)P(s)/m = pin(s) pout(s) + pin(s 1) + pout(s + 1) (3)

since Ns is decremented when a word with s senses gains or loses a sense and Ns is incremented when a word with s 1 senses gains a sense or a word with s + 1 senses loses a sense. From the assumption of the independence of obsolescence and number of senses, it follows directly that pout(s) is proportional to sP(s). Let pout(s) = KsP(s), for some constant K. Then, since pout(s) = t, we have t = KsP(s) = Km by equation (1). s=1 s=1 Thus K = t/m and pout(s) = tsP(s) m Under the assumption that associations are with concepts, pin(s) is proportional to both 1 + (s 1) and P(s). Suppose that pin(s) = KP(s)(1 + (s 1)).

Since pin(s) =v, P(s) = 1, and sP(s) = m, s=1 s=1 s=1 we have v = KP(s)(1 + (s 1)) = K(1 ) + Km. s=1 Thus K = v/(1 + m), and hence, for s = 1, 2, . . . pin(s) = v(1 + (s 1))P(s) 1 + m Note that the creation of a new word with a single sense is a special case. By definition of u as the probability that the next step of the process is the creation of a new word, pin(0) = u. Summing equation (3), for s = 1, 2, . . ., gives 1 2t = - Pout(1) + Pin(0) = -tP(1) + u m m Thus u = 1 2t + tP(1) m and, since by definition v = 1 t u, v = 1 t 1 2t + tP(1) m Plugging in the formulas for pin(s), pout(s), and v, our basic equation (3) becomes, after simplification, for s > 1: t(s + 1)(1 + m)P(s + 1) {(m mt 1 + 2t tP(1))(1 + s) +(1 2t + ts)(1 + m)}P(s) + (m mt 1 + 2t tP(1))(1 2 + s)P (s 1) =0 (5) Empirical evidence indicates that P(s) is a near-exponential function. In fact, if P(s) were an exponential function, then since P(s) = 1 and sP(s) = m, we can easily deduce that s=1 s=1 P(s) would be equal to m1(1 m1)s1. The proof of the following result is simple but rather tedious and hence is omitted. ASSIGNMENTS 6. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , , , (). 7. Get ready to read aloud all the formulae given in the text. 8. Answer the questions: (4)

a. What is since the probability that a word sense gained if the probability that a word sense is lost by obsolescence is t? b. Would the number of words in LD be constant if t = 0.5? c. What must the expected net increase in Ns (the number of words in LD with exactly s senses) during one step be proportional to according to the stationarystate hypothesis? d. Is P(s) a near-exponential function? e. Can you deduce the second given in the text formula without peeping at the text? TEXT 8 Mathematics in Psychodiagnostics I This article presents a formalization for employee competencies which is based on a psychological framework separating the overt behavioural level from the underlying competence level. On the competence level, employees draw on action potentials (knowledge, skills and abilities) which in a given situation produce performance outcomes on the behavioural level. This conception is based on the competence performance approach by Korossy which uses mathematical structures to establish prerequisite relations on the competence and the performance level. From this framework, a methodology for assessing competencies in dynamic work domains is developed which utilizes documents employees have created to assess the competencies they have been acquiring. From the resulting structures, employee competency profiles can be derived and development planning can be supported. The structures also provide the means for making inferences within the competency assessment process which in turn facilitates continuous updating of competency profiles and maintenance of the structures. A theoretical framework is the Competence Performance Theory. It belongs to a family of theories that originated from research into knowledge spaces. A knowledge space is a mathematical structure consisting of all the knowledge states within a certain domain that a person may be in. A knowledge state is formalized as the subset of tasks of the domain that a person is capable of accomplishing. Of great importance are the dependencies within the set of tasks which can be interpreted as meaning if a person is capable of accomplishing task a, then he or she will also be able to accomplish task b. These dependencies restrict the number knowledge states than can be expected to appear within a certain population of learners. These (and other) characteristics of the structures have been useful for creating adaptive tests. Adaptivity then means that an individual will be presented with those tasks that are maximally suited to his or her current state of knowledge and therefore are neither too demanding, nor too easy. A possible limitation of knowledge space theory which has been put forward by Korossy is its sole focus on the behavioural (or performance) level. The theory thereby neglects progress in cognitive psychology or educational sciences that have advanced theoretical understanding of the reasons for different levels of performance. Such cognitive theories of the underlying skills that shape performance offer better ways to suggest training and development measures. Therefore, Korossy has suggested an extension of the theory of knowledge spaces, which takes into account two sets of concepts, namely the set of tasks (or more generally, the set of performance outcomes) and the set of competencies (knowledge, skills and abilities) that are necessary to accomplish the tasks. If the elements of the two sets are related to one another, structures can be derived which can be interpreted in terms of prerequisite relations or learning paths on the performance and on the competence level. Accordingly, the advantage of the competence-performance approach is that the

competencies help to predict performance outcomes and provide an explanation for discrepancies in performance. For example, missing competencies can help to explain why an employee was not able to accomplish a certain task. Hence, development programs can be created that focus on theses underlying competencies. Since its inception, knowledge space theory has been applied in many different contexts and in different kinds of knowledge assessment procedures. Figure 7 shows part of this structure with the tasks for the position (1.1, 2.1, 4.2 and so forth) and the competencies required to accomplish these tasks (A, B, I, J, and so forth). The resulting competence structure (on the right) shows learning paths for the employees that proceed from the bottom to the top of the structure. Each step involves learning additional competencies so that new tasks can be mastered. For illustration purposes, it only shows part of the overall structure and provides a simplified view of Korossys approach. There is a set P of tasks, in the example those are the tasks that have to be carried out in a certain position. Subsets of P are called Performance States, if they contain the tasks (performances) a person is able to accomplish. A collection of Performance States closed under union is called a Performance Space P. Of course the tasks are not independent of one another: If a person is able to accomplish a certain task, one can surmise that he or she will be able to accomplish a certain other tasks as well. This relationship is formalized by the surmise function s: P ( (P)) which assigns to each task p P a set of Performance States s(p) in each of which p is included, and which are minimal with respect to , meaning that if a person is able to accomplish task p, that person is at least in one of the Performance States in s(p). Tasks 1.1 Competencies A B I J L M O P 2.1 X X X X X X X X 4.2 X X X X X X X 5.4 X X

ABIJLMOP 2.1 4.2 1.1 5.4 BIJLOP 2.1 1.1 5.4 IJ 5.4 ABIJMOP 4.2 1.1 5.4 IJO P 1.1 5.4 O P 1.1

Manager There is a one-to-one correspondence between the surmise function s and the Performance Space P, meaning that P only consists of those states which can be expected on the basis of the surmise function and vice versa. In the above structure for instance, a Performance State that contains task 2.1, but doesnt contain task 1.1, cannot be expected, as 1.1 is a prerequisite for 2.1. The second set is the set of competencies which should be of smaller magnitude than the set of tasks, in order to provide some additional explanatory power: Performance in many different tasks should be determined by the combination of a few underlying competencies. E is structured in a similar way as P: A surmise function assigns to each competency e E a set of Competence States (e) in each of which e is included, and which are minimal with respect to , meaning that if a person is possesses competency e, that person is at least in one of the Competence States in (e). The surmise function establishes a Competence Space K. The two spaces P and K are connected by an interpretation function k: P (K), which assigns to each task p P a set of Competence States kx K in which the tasks can be accomplished. When the two sets E and P are related to one another in a matrix such as in Figure 7, a competence-performance structure can be derived. First of all, Competence states can be derived as subsets of competencies that are necessary for accomplishing the tasks (the columns of the matrix, e.g. {I;J}, {B;I;J;L;O;P} and so forth). By closing the collection of competence states under union, a Competence Space is derived. After that, all tasks that can be expected in a certain competence state are assigned to this state (see Figure 7). ASSIGNMENTS 1. Find in the text the English equivalents of the following Russian words and wordcombinations: , , , , , , (), , ( ). 2. Give definitions of the following notions: a knowledge space, a knowledge state, competence performance approach, adaptivity. 3. Name a few: action potentials, competencies, knowledge states. 4. Answer the questions: a) What does the competence performance approach by Korossy use? b) What is a knowledge space? c) How can the dependencies within the set of tasks be interpreted? d) What does adaptivity mean? e) In what way has Korossy extended the theory of knowledge spaces? f) How can Competence states be derived? 5. Complete the summary below using words from the box. The Competence Performance Theory belongs to a family of theories that originated from research into (1) _____ . A knowledge space is a mathematical structure consisting of all the (2) _____ within a certain domain that a person may be in. A knowledge state is formalized as the subset of tasks of the domain that a person is capable of (3) _____ . Of great importance are the (4) _____ within the set of tasks which can be interpreted as meaning if a person is capable of accomplishing task a, then he or she will also be able to accomplish task b. These dependencies restrict the number knowledge states than can be expected to appear within a certain population of learners. These (and other) characteristics of the structures have been

useful for creating (5) _____ . Adaptivity then means that an individual will be presented with those tasks that are maximally suited to his or her current state of knowledge and therefore are neither too demanding, nor too easy. A possible limitation of knowledge space theory which has been put forward by Korossy is its sole focus on the (6) _____ level. The theory thereby neglects progress in (7) _____ psychology or educational sciences that have advanced theoretical understanding of the reasons for different levels of performance. accomplishing, adaptive tests, behavioural, knowledge spaces, cognitive, dependencies, knowledge states 6. Retell the summary of the text. APPENDIX Reading of Mathematical Expressions 1) a + b a plus b 2) a b a minus b 3) a b a multiplied by b 4) a b a divided by b 5) a a over b, or a divided by b b 6) a = b a equals b, or a is equal to b 7) m ab m divided by a multiplied by b 8) ax The square root of ax 9) a4 a fourth, a fourth power or a exponent 4 10) an a nth, a nth power, or a exponent n 11) nb The nth root of b 12) (a + b)2 = a2 + 2ab + b2 The square of the sum of two numbers is equal to the square of the first number, plus twice the product of the first and second, plus the square of the second 13) (a b)2 = a2 2ab + b2 The square of the difference of two numbers is equal to the square of the first number minus twice the product of the first and second, plus the square of the second 14) x Increment of x 15) Summation of 16) dx Differential of x 17) dy/dx Derivative of y with respect to x 18) d2y/dx2 Second derivative of y with respect to x 19) dny/dxn nth derivative of y with respect to x 20) dy/dx Partial derivative of y with respect to x 21) dny/dxn nth partial derivative of y with respect to x 22) Integral of 23)a Integral between the limits a and b

b

24) 5dn The fifth root of d to the nth power 25) a + b ab The square root of a plus b over a minus b 3 26) a = logcd a cubed is equal to the logarithm of d to the base c 27)t f [S, (S)] ds The integral of f of S and of S, with respect to S from to t

28) d2y + (l + b (S)) y = 0 The second derivative of y with respect to s, plus y times the quantity l ds2 plus b of s, is equal to zero 29) Xa b = etl X sub a minus b is equal to e to the power t times l 30) f (z) = Kab f of z is equal to K sub ab 31) 2u = 0 The second partial (derivative) of u with respect to t is equal to zero t2 Glossary Ambiguity is the property of words, terms, notations and concepts (within a particular context) as being undefined, indefinable, or without an obvious definition and thus having an unclear meaning. Behavioural based on the proposition that all things which organisms do, including acting, thinking and feeling, can and should be regarded as behaviors. Carbon-14 dating method dating method based on the measurement of the radiocarbon level in organic samples. Cartesian product is a direct product of sets. Chi-square test is any statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic has a chi-square distribution when the null hypothesis is true, or any in which the probability distribution of the test statistic (assuming the null hypothesis is true) can be made to approximate a chi-square distribution as closely as desired by making the sample size large enough. Cognitive psychology is the school of psychology that examines internal mental processes such as problem solving, memory, and language. Monosemic word is the word that has only one meaning. Near-exponential rule the number of senses per word in a monolingual dictionary has an approximately exponential distribution. Neologism is a word, term, or phrase which has been recently created ("coined") often to apply to new concepts, to synthesize pre-existing concepts, or to make older terminology sound more contemporary. Polysemy is the capacity for a sign (e.g. a word, phrase, etc.) or signs to have multiple meanings. Quadrature of the circle is a problem proposed by ancient geometers. It is the challenge to construct a square with the same area as a given circle by using only a finite number of steps with compass and straightedge. Semantics refers to the aspects of meaning that are expressed in a language, code, or other form of representation of information. Stochastic model is a tool for estimating probability distributions of potential outcomes by allowing for random variation in one or more inputs over time. Scientists Reference Boyer C.B. (1906 1976) was a historian of mathematics. He wrote the books History of Analytic Geometry, History of the Calculus, A History of Mathematics, and The Rainbow: From Myth to Mathematics. Einstein A. (1879 1955) - contributed more than any other scientist to the modern vision of physical reality. His special and general theories of relativity are still regarded as the most satisfactory model of the large-scale universe that we have. Fomenko A.T. (born 13 March 1945) is a Russian mathematician, professor of Moscow State University, well-known as a topologist, and a full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He was born in Donetsk, Ukraine. Hardouin J. (1646 - 1729), French classical scholar, was born at Quimper in Brittany.

Herodotus (484 BCca. 425 BC) is regarded as the "Father of History". He is almost exclusively known for writing The Histories, a record of his 'inquiries' into the origins of the Greco-Persian Wars which occurred in 490 and 480-479 BCE especially since he includes a narrative account of that period, which would otherwise be poorly documented, and many long digressions concerning the various places and peoples he encountered during wide-ranging travels around the lands of the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Leonardo of Pisa (Fibonacci) (1170 1250) - played an important role in reviving ancient mathematics and made significant contributions of his own. Liber abaci introduced the HinduArabic place-valued decimal system and the use of Arabic numerals into Europe. Maxwell J.C. (1831 1879) did revolutionary work on electricity and magnetism and on the kinetic theory of gases. Morozov N.A. Newton I. (1643 1727) - the greatest English mathematician of his generation. He laid the foundation for differential and integral calculus. His work on optics and gravitation make him one of the greatest scientists the world has known. Petavius D. (1583 1652) one of the most brilliant scholars in a learned age. Carrying on and improving the chronological labours of Joseph Justus Scaliger, he published in 1627 an Opus de doctrina temporum, which has been often reprinted. An abridgment of this work, Rationarium temporum, was translated into French and English, and has been brought down to the year 1849. Scaliger I. (1540 1609) a French religious leader and scholar, known for expanding the notion of classical history from Greek and Ancient Roman history to include Persian, Babylonian, Jewish and Ancient Egyptian history. Ssu-ma Ch'ien (Sima Qian) (ca. 14590 BC) was a Prefect of the Grand Scribes of the Han Dynasty. He is regarded as the father of Chinese historiography because of his highly praised work, Records of the Grand Historian an overview of the history of China covering more than two thousand years from the Yellow Emperor to Emperor Han Wudi. His work laid the foundation for later Chinese historiography. Thucydides (ca. 460 BC ca. 395 BC) was an ancient Greek historian, and the author of the History of the Peloponnesian War, which recounts the 5th century BC war between Sparta and Athens to the year 411 BC. Thucydides is considered by many to be a scientific historian because of his efforts in his History to describe the human world in terms of cause and effect, his strict standards of gathering evidence, and his neglect of the gods in explaining the events of the past. Other scholars lay greater emphasis on the Historys elaborate literary artistry and the powerful rhetoric of its speeches and insist that its author exploited non-"scientific" literary genres no less than newer, rationalistic modes of explanation. : 1. Robert A. Herrmann Ph. D. Mathematics. Mathematics department, U.S. Naval Academy, 527 Holloway Road, Annapolis, MD 1402-5002. 2. A Dictionary of the English Language, Samuel Johnson, facsimile edition, Times Books, London, 1979 (original edition published 1755) (c. 40,000 words). 3. Newman, Mark E. J. The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM Review 45, 2003 4. Pagel Mark, Onions, C. T., editor The Oxford Dictionary of English Etymology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2000. 5. www.siam.org 6. The history, rate and pattern of world linguistic evolution. In Chris Knight, Michael Studdert-Kennedy, and James R. Hurford editors, The Evolutionary Emergence of Language. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pages 391416, 2001

7. Tobias Ley Math matters. Apply it. Journal of Universal Computer Science, vol. 9, no. 12 (2003), 1500-1518

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