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GICS Sector Energy Sub-Industry Coal & Consumable Fuels Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P, Vickers, company reports) 52-Wk Range $68.30 27.11 Trailing 12-Month EPS $3.52 Trailing 12-Month P/E 8.7 $10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $6,783 Price Performance
30-Week Mov. Avg. 12-Mo. Target Price
80 60 40 30 20
Summary BTU is the world's largest publicly traded coal company, with 9 billion tons of coal reserves. Its coal fuels about 10% of the electricity generated in the U.S. and 2% worldwide.
S&P Oper. EPS 2012E S&P Oper. EPS 2013E P/E on S&P Oper. EPS 2012E Common Shares Outstg. (M)
1.53 30 BB+
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
Our risk assessment reflects the industry's cyclicality and extensive regulation, the potential for geological difficulties with mines, transportation problems, volatility in the prices of competing fuels, and a narrow customer focus. This is offset by the company's leading market position and geographically well diversified coal holdings. Quantitative Evaluations S&P Quality Ranking
5 3 2 3
Vol. Mil. 45 30 15 0 5 1 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
B+ B B+ AA A+ WEAK
HIGHEST = 99
D
4 3 4 3
B-
2009
2010
2011
2012
Options: ASE, CBOE, P, Ph
Revenue/Earnings Data Revenue (Million $) 1Q 2Q 2011 1,743 1,981 2010 1,516 1,661 2009 1,453 1,338 2008 1,276 1,531 2007 1,365 1,322 2006 1,312 1,316 Earnings Per Share ($) 2011 0.70 1.10 2010 0.50 0.77 2009 0.50 0.32 2008 0.26 0.89 2007 0.33 0.40 2006 0.48 0.57
Highlights
Investment Rationale/Risk
The 12-month target price for BTU has recently been changed to $34.00 from $40.00. The Highlights section of this Stock Report will be updated accordingly.
The Investment Rationale/Risk section of this Stock Report will be updated shortly. For the latest News story on BTU from MarketScope, see below. 04/19/12 11:42 am ET ... S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF PEABODY ENERGY (BTU 30.32***): Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.67, vs. $0.72, is below our $1.06 estimate, but beats the Capital IQ consensus forecast of $0.54. BTU benefited from expanded Australian production at good margins and U.S. volumes fully priced for 2012 at higher than prevailing prices. BTU is cutting U.S. volumes in response to weak coal demand. We expect it to benefit from its export and Australian operations, but the U.S. outlook remains poor. We trim our '12 EPS estimate to $2.40 from $4.36. We cut our 12-month target price by $6 to $34, 14X our '12 estimate, and the low end of BTU's historical range. /J. Corridore
Fiscal year ended Dec. 31. Next earnings report expected: NA. EPS Estimates based on S&P Operating Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported.
Please read the Required Disclosures and Analyst Certification on the last page of this report.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Officers Chrmn & CEO G.H. Boyce Pres R.A. Navarre COO & EVP E. Ford EVP & CFO M.C. Crews EVP & Chief Admin Officer S.D. Fiehler
Board Members G. H. Boyce W. A. Coley W. E. James R. B. Karn, III M. F. Keeth H. E. Lentz, Jr. R. A. Malone W. C. Rusnack J. F. Turner S. A. Van Trease A. H. Washkowitz
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Based on S&P's proprietary quantitative model, stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to most undervalued (5).
Fair Value Calculation Investability Quotient Percentile Volatility Technical Evaluation Insider Activity
Price/Sales Price/EBITDA Price/Pretax Income P/E Ratio Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg (M)
Figures based on calendar year-end price
29
LOWEST = 1 HIGHEST = 100
Key Growth Rates and Averages Past Growth Rate (%) Sales Net Income Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.) Net Margin (%) % LT Debt to Capitalization Return on Equity (%)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 9 Years
BTU scored lower than 71% of all companies for which an S&P Report is available.
16.24 30.07
7.28 6.60
9.60 10.95
12.42 33.42
LOW BEARISH
AVERAGE
HIGH
Since February, 2012, the technical indicators for BTU have been BEARISH.
UNFAVORABLE
NEUTRAL
FAVORABLE
Company Financials Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 31 Per Share Data ($) Tangible Book Value Cash Flow Earnings S&P Core Earnings Dividends Payout Ratio Prices:High Prices:Low P/E Ratio:High P/E Ratio:Low Income Statement Analysis (Million $) Revenue Operating Income Depreciation Interest Expense Pretax Income Effective Tax Rate Net Income S&P Core Earnings 2011 20.23 5.56 3.76 3.64 0.34 9% 73.95 30.60 20 8 2010 17.25 4.62 2.87 2.90 0.29 10% 64.59 34.89 23 12 2009 13.98 3.17 1.68 1.60 0.25 15% 48.21 20.17 29 12 2008 10.96 5.31 3.63 3.36 0.24 7% 88.69 16.00 24 4 2007 9.33 2.91 1.56 1.42 0.24 15% 62.55 36.20 40 23 2006 7.95 3.63 2.23 2.00 0.24 11% 76.29 32.94 34 15 2005 8.27 2.76 1.58 1.43 0.17 11% 43.48 18.37 28 12 2004 3.33 0.88 0.70 0.63 0.13 19% 21.70 9.10 31 13 2003 5.18 1.26 0.19 0.11 0.11 59% 10.75 6.13 57 32 2002 5.16 1.57 0.49 0.27 0.10 20% 7.69 4.38 16 9
Balance Sheet & Other Financial Data (Million $) Cash 799 Current Assets 3,230 Total Assets 16,733 Current Liabilities 1,824 Long Term Debt 6,556 Common Equity 5,516 Total Capital 12,173 Capital Expenditures 883 Cash Flow 1,504 Current Ratio 1.8 % Long Term Debt of Capitalization 53.9 % Net Income of Revenue 12.7 % Return on Assets 7.2 % Return on Equity 19.9
1,295 2,958 11,363 1,623 2,707 4,689 7,439 633 1,246 1.8 36.4 11.3 7.3 18.4
989 2,189 9,955 1,312 2,738 3,756 6,508 441 848 1.7 42.1 7.4 4.5 13.3
450 1,971 9,822 1,856 3,139 2,904 6,061 486 1,439 1.1 51.9 14.9 10.1 36.3
45.3 1,927 9,668 2,187 3,139 2,520 5,975 649 783 0.9 52.5 9.2 4.4 17.3
327 1,274 9,514 1,368 3,168 2,339 5,735 478 978 0.9 55.2 11.4 7.3 26.6
503 1,325 6,852 1,023 1,383 2,178 3,902 384 739 1.3 35.4 9.1 6.5 21.7
390 1,055 6,179 774 1,406 1,725 3,526 267 448 1.4 39.9 4.9 3.1 12.5
118 683 5,280 632 1,173 1,132 2,742 156 276 1.1 42.8 NM NM NM
71.2 550 5,140 632 982 1,081 2,599 209 338 0.9 37.8 3.9 2.1 10.0
Data as orig reptd.; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs.; EPS diluted. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Stock Performance
GICS Sector: Energy Sub-Industry: Coal & Consumable Fuels Based on S&P 1500 Indexes Month-end Price Performance as of 03/30/12
300
250
200
150
50
2008
Sub-Industry Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
S&P 1500
NOTE: All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)
Sub-Industry : Coal & Consumable Fuels Peer Group*: Coal & Consumable Fuels
Peer Group Peabody Energy Alpha Natural Res Arch Coal CONSOL Energy Cameco Corp James River Coal Natural Resource Ptnrs USEC Inc Westmoreland Coal Yanzhou Coal Mining ADR Stock Symbol BTU ANR ACI CNX CCJ JRCC NRP USU WLB YZC Stk.Mkt. Cap. (Mil. $) 7,749 3,564 2,097 7,764 8,297 172 2,531 125 129 10,759 Recent Stock Price($) 28.46 16.20 9.83 34.19 21.04 4.95 23.87 1.02 9.32 21.60 52 Week High/Low($) 68.30/27.11 59.20/13.80 35.06/9.70 55.33/29.85 31.25/16.59 25.39/4.51 35.23/23.13 4.71/1.00 19.28/6.61 41.89/17.49 Beta 1.53 1.78 1.83 1.49 1.62 2.03 0.77 1.49 1.95 2.39 Yield (%) 1.2 Nil 4.5 1.5 1.9 Nil 9.2 Nil Nil 3.7 P/E Ratio 8 NM 13 12 16 NM 48 NM NM 8 Fair Value Calc.($) 41.60 NA 15.50 44.30 24.30 NA NA NA NA 38.80 S&P Return on Quality IQ Revenue Ranking %ile (%) B+ NR B B B NR B+ C C NR 29 9 24 27 93 8 76 7 7 9 12.7 NM 3.3 10.6 31.0 NM 14.0 NM NM 25.9 LTD to Cap (%) 53.9 28.1 49.2 46.2 15.6 59.5 55.3 38.7 806.7 36.9
NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
Source: S&P. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.
President of Federal Government Relations, Australia, reporting to Eric Ford, Peabody's Global Chief Operating Officer, and Michael Flannigan, Vice President of International Relations, based in St. Louis. Pearson will be based in Brisbane, Queensland. Pearson is joining Peabody from the Minerals Council of Australia (MCA), where as Deputy Chief Executive he played a key leadership and policy-making role in the peak industry body that represents Australia's $700 billion mining and minerals processing industry. During his tenure at MCA, Pearson was responsible for shaping the minerals sector approach to a range of policy issues, including climate change, industry economics, trade and investment, education and skills, land use and infrastructure. December 7, 2011 Peabody Energy Inc. announced that it has named Allen T. Capdeboscq as vice president of financial and capital planning and Amy B. Schwetz as vice president of investor relations. Schwetz will lead communication of company's activities with the investment community, including financial communications, messaging, shareholder analysis and targeting, and investor and sell-side analyst outreach. She will report to senior vice president of investor relations and corporate communications Vic Svec. Reporting to Schwetz is Katie D. Cason, who has been promoted to Director of investor relations. Schwetz joined the company in 2005 as Director of compliance and accounting policies, and most recently was vice president of financial and capital planning. Allen T. Capdeboscq will replace Schwetz as vice president of financial and capital planning and will report to Executive vice president and Chief Financial Officer Mike Crews. Capdeboscq will provide leadership in planning, forecasting and capital management. He previously served as vice president of business development and had a significant lead role in company's acquisition of Macarthur Coal. Reporting to Capdeboscq are director of financial planning Eric Baltz and Director of capital planning Jeff Timmermann. November 23, 2011 Peabody Energy Corp. announced it has named Chris A. Shelton as Vice President of Applied Technology. Shelton will lead a team of technical and engineering professionals to implement solutions that enhance operational performance across Peabody's global platform. In this role, he will oversee the use of data and analytics, mining technology and monitoring systems to strengthen safety and productivity, improve efficiencies, and automate processes. Shelton will report to Jeane L. Hull, Executive Vice President of Technical Services. November 22, 2011 Peabody Energy Corp. said it relocated its chief operating officer to Brisbane, Australia, highlighting the importance of Australia to the company's growth plans. Peabody COO Eric Ford will lead Peabody's global operations from Brisbane. He recently was named chairman of the board of Australia's Macarthur Coal Ltd., which the company assumed control of in late October.
Hold
H
Weak Hold
WH
Sell S
No Opinion
BTU Trend
BUY/HOLD Companies Offering Coverage Over 30 firms follow this stock; not all firms are displayed. Atlantic Equities LLP BB&T Capital Markets BMO Capital Markets, Canadian Equity Research Barclays BofA Merrill Lynch Brean Murray, Carret & Co. CRT Capital Group LLC Citigroup Inc Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc. Credit Suisse Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. Davenport & Company Deutsche Bank FBR Capital Markets & Co. Gabelli & Company, Inc. Goldman Sachs HSBC Howard Weil Incorporated JP Morgan Jefferies & Company, Inc. Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C. Macquarie Research Moody?s Morgan Stanley Morningstar Inc. RBC Capital Markets Raymond James & Associates S&P Equity Research Simmons & Company International Wall Street Consensus vs. Performance
60
40
20
2010
2011
2012
Of the total 36 companies following BTU, 25 analysts currently publish recommendations. No. of Ratings 11 7 5 1 0 1 25 % of Total 44 28 20 4 0 4 100 1 Mo. Prior 3 Mos. Prior 11 10 7 9 5 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 25 25
Buy Buy/Hold Hold Weak Hold Sell No Opinion Total Wall Street Consensus Estimates
Estimates 8 6 4 2
D J F M A M J
2011
2012
2013
For fiscal year 2012, analysts estimate that BTU will earn $3.08. For fiscal year 2013, analysts estimate that BTU's earnings per share will grow by 36% to $4.18.
2011
2012
Fiscal Years 2013 2012 2013 vs. 2012 Q1'13 Q1'12 Q1'13 vs. Q1'12
# of Est. 23 23 0% 4 14 -71%
A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. Standard & Poor's organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300 Wall Street analysts, and provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years. This graph shows the trend in analyst estimates over the past 15 months.
Source: S&P, Capital IQ Estimates, Inc. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.
Volatility Rates the volatility of the stock's price over the past year. Technical Evaluation In researching the past market history of prices and trading volume for each company, S&P's computer models apply special technical methods and formulas to identify and project price trends for the stock. Relative Strength Rank Shows, on a scale of 1 to 99, how the stock has performed versus all other companies in S&P's universe on a rolling 13-week basis. Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) An industry classification standard, developed by Standard & Poor's in collaboration with Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). GICS is currently comprised of 10 Sectors, 24 Industry Groups, 68 Industries, and 154 Sub-Industries. S&P Issuer Credit Rating A Standard & Poor's Issuer Credit Rating is a current opinion of an obligor's overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor's capacity and willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit enhancement on the obligation. The Issuer Credit Rating is not a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold a financial obligation issued by an obligor, as it does not comment on market price or suitability for a particular investor. Issuer Credit Ratings are based on current information furnished by obligors or obtained by Standard & Poor's from other sources it considers reliable. Standard & Poor's does not perform an audit in connection with any Issuer Credit Rating and may, on occasion, rely on unaudited financial information. Issuer Credit Ratings may be changed, suspended, or withdrawn as a result of changes in, or unavailability of, such information, or based on other circumstances. Exchange Type ASE - American Stock Exchange; AU - Australia Stock Exchange; BB - Bulletin Board; NGM - Nasdaq Global Market; NNM - Nasdaq Global Select Market; NSC Nasdaq Capital Market; NYS - New York Stock Exchange; OTN - Other OTC (Over the Counter); OTC Over the Counter; QB - OTCQB; QX - OTCQX; TS - Toronto Stock Exchange; TXV - TSX Venture Exchange; NEX NEX Exchange. S&P Equity Research Services Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services U.S. includes Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Europe includes McGraw-Hill Financial Research Europe Limited trading as Standard & Poor's; Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Asia includes McGraw-Hill Financial Singapore Pte. Limited's
S&P Fair Value Rank Using S&P's exclusive proprietary quantitative model, stocks are ranked in one of five groups, ranging from Group 5, listing the most undervalued stocks, to Group 1, the most overvalued issues. Group 5 stocks are expected to generally outperform all others. A positive (+) or negative (-) Timing Index is placed next to the Fair Value ranking to further aid the selection process. A stock with a (+) added to the Fair Value Rank simply means that this stock has a somewhat better chance to outperform other stocks with the same Fair Value Rank. A stock with a (-) has a somewhat lesser chance to outperform other stocks with the same Fair Value Rank. The Fair Value rankings imply the following: 5-Stock is significantly undervalued; 4-Stock is moderately undervalued; 3-Stock is fairly valued; 2-Stock is modestly overvalued; 1-Stock is significantly overvalued. S&P Fair Value Calculation The price at which a stock should trade at, according to S&P's proprietary quantitative model that incorporates both actual and estimated variables (as opposed to only actual variables in the case of S&P Quality Ranking). Relying heavily on a company's actual return on equity, the S&P Fair Value model places a value on a security based on placing a formula-derived price-to-book multiple on a company's consensus earnings per share estimate. Insider Activity Gives an insight as to insider sentiment by showing whether directors, officers and key employees who have proprietary information not available to the general public, are buying or selling the company's stock during the most recent six months. Funds From Operations FFO FFO is Funds from Operations and equal to a REIT's net income, excluding gains or losses from sales of property, plus real estate depreciation. Investability Quotient (IQ) The IQ is a measure of investment desirability. It serves
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In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which are determined and assigned by S&P equity analysts, S&Ps quantitative evaluations are derived from S&Ps proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology, whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods, quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity analysts STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations. S&P Global STARS Distribution In North America: As of March 30, 2012, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services North America recommended 34.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.9% with hold recommendations and 7.6% with sell recommendations. In Europe: As of March 30, 2012, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Europe recommended 30.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 49.4% with hold recommendations and 20.5% with sell recommendations. In Asia: As of March 30, 2012, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Asia recommended 35.9% of issuers with buy recommendations, 54.3% with hold recommendations and 9.8% with sell recommendations. Globally: As of March 30, 2012, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services globally recommended 34.0% of issuers with buy recommendations, 56.3% with hold recommendations and 9.7% with sell recommendations.
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5 STARS
4 STARS
3 STARS
2 STARS
1 STARS
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1,600
800
0 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
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The performance above represents only the results of Standard & Poor's model portfolios. Model performance has inherent limitations. Standard & Poor's maintains the models and calculates the model performance shown, but does not manage actual assets. The U.S. STARS model performance chart is only an illustration of Standard & Poor's (S&P) research; it shows how U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) and ADSs (American Depositary Shares), collectively equities, that received particular STARS rankings performed. STARS categories are models only; they are not collective investment funds. The STARS performance does not show how any actual portfolio has performed. STARS model performance does not represent the results of actual trading of investor assets. Thus, the model performance shown does not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on decision-making if actual investor money had been managed. Performance is calculated using a time-weighted rate of return. While model performance for some or all STARS categories performed better than the S&P 500 for the period shown, the performance during any shorter period may not have, and there is no assurance that they will perform better than the S&P 500 in the future. STARS does not take into account any particular investment objective, financial situation or need and is not intended as an investment recommendation or strategy. Investments based on the STARS methodology may lose money. High returns are not necessarily the norm and there is no assurance that they can be sustained. Past model performance of STARS is no guarantee of future performance. For model performance calculation purposes, the
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P, S&P 500, S&P Europe 350 and STARS are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P, S&P 500, S&P Europe 350 and STARS are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.