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The Politics and Economics of European Energy Security Amsterdam Marriott Hotel, the Netherlands, 18-19 November, 2010
Shale gas will rock the world (Amy Jaffe) A quiet revolution (Dan Yergin) A game changer (Baker Institute)
Tight gas gas stuck in a very tight formation underground trapped in unusually impermeable hard rock, sandstone or limestone formations (tight sand). No significant gas flows without fractures Shale gas gas trapped in fine grained, sedimentary rock formations relatively small and impermeable pores No significant gas flows without fractures to create channels connecting the pores Coalbed methane commonly found in coal seems, often near surface generally not released into the atmosphere until coal mining activities unleash it usually requires dewatering
Source: naturalgas.org
Dr Andreas Goldthau 18 November 2010
Technological progress has brough shale gas into the global gas balance.
Shale fracture surface shown before (left) and after (right) reactive fluid contact (1,000x magnification on ESEM microscope): increase in effective surface area and enhanced flow channels for gas to diffuse from shale fracture surface
Source: Halliburton
Technological progress has brough shale gas into the global gas balance.
Unconventional became conventional bulk of shale gas plays in Northern America bcm200 700 180 shale gas production soared since early 2000s, 160 now providing for half of U.S. output, and growing Alaska 600 140 effective lock-off of U.S. import market
500 120
100
Shale gas
AEO 2010
400
80
Coalbed methane
AEO 2005
300 60
40
Onshore conventional
200
20 0
0 20 10 20 0
100
Source: EIA
Offshore
2015 2025 2035
0 1990
2000
2008
Source: EIA
Dr Andreas Goldthau 18 November 2010
Source: EIA
Offshore
550 US 500 Russian Federation European Union Former Soviet Union 450
400
350
Source: BP
Dr Andreas Goldthau 18 November 2010
Increased global liquefaction capacity 300 bcm liquefaction capacity end of 2009 projected to reach some 460 bcm by 2015 Qatari LNG capacity at 105 bcm by 2013
Implications for European energy markets and security: oversupply and price slumps
Environment High environmental standards (no Halliburton loophole) Access to water and disposal of used water an issue Strong environmental movements
Regulation Ownership of subsoil resources (state not private) Land access/ drilling rights difficult due to high population density Fiscal regimes for unconventional gas production lacking
Economics Availability of (pipeline) infrastructure Availability of business in energy service sector High European well costs
No copy paste in Europe Still, U.S. developments have great impact on European markets
Dr Andreas Goldthau 18 November 2010
Short term implications for European gas markets and energy security: oversupply and soft market
gas glut
Short term implications for European gas markets and energy security: oversupply and soft market
Source: Gazprom
Long term implications for European gas markets and energy security: uncertainty
Transition towards new market & pricing structures (increasing spot indexation; take-off under pressure) Dis-incentivizing effects on Russian investment in export capacity Long term supply bottlenecks, price hikes
Growing environmental concerns in U.S. / growth path of shale gas industry Economic recovery in Europe Cartelization of globally traded gas market share
energy.ceu.hu goldthau.com