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New Delhi: Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee tabled the Economic Survey 2011-12 in Parliament on Thursday, stating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow 7.6 percent in FY'13. "The growth rate of real GDP (is expected) to pick up to 7.6 percent (plus or minus 0.25 percent) in 2012-13 and faster beyond that," said Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament. It expects the economic growth to further improve to 8.6 percent in 2013-14. The Survey said fiscal consolidation is likely to get back on track from 2012-13, when savings and capital formation will also begin to improve. "Moreover, with the easing of inflationary pressure in the months to come, there could be reduction in policy rates by the RBI, which would encourage investment that could have a positive impact on growth", it added. Indian economy is likely to slowdown to 6.9 percent in 2011-12 from 8.4 percent in the previous two years mainly on account of global slowdown and domestic factors. "There were also the pressures of democratic politics, which slowed reforms," the Survey said while endorsing the Central Statistical Organisation's (CSO) estimate of 6.9 percent growth during 2011-12. India's economic growth slowed to its weakest annual pace in almost three years in the three months to December, as high interest rates and rising input costs constrained investment and manufacturing, government data released earlier showed. GDP rose 6.1 percent in October to December compared with a year earlier. That marked a sharp pullback from 6.9 percent growth in July to September and was the seventh successive quarterly slowdown. Following are the highlights of Economic Survey 2011-12 :
WPI food inflation dropped from 20.2% in February 2010 to 1.6% in January 2012
Forex reserves enhanced, cover nearly the entire external debt stock
Global economy remains fragile; efforts needed through G-20 for stability
Deregulation of interest rates on savings accounts to help raise financial savings and improve transmission of monetary policy
Indias share of trade to GDP of goods and services in world tripled in 1990-2010
Indias flows of capital as a share of GDP in word increased dramatically in last two decades
Inflation
Milk, eggs/meat/fish, gram & edible oils major drivers of food inflation
Threat from asset price bubbles in real estate and stock markets
Scope to further sharpen monetary policy and use macro prudential to deal with above said threats
Perishable food items should be taken out of ambit of the APMC Act
FDI in multi brand retain will fill infra gap during harvest period
Agriculture
Industry
Industrial growth less than recent past and far below potential
Industry expected to rebound with inflation easing, moderation in commodities prices in international market and revival of manufacturing performance
Long term average annual growth of industries comprising mining, manufacturing and electricity remain aligned with overall GDP growth rate
Employment in Industry increase from 16.2% in 1999-2000 to 21.9% in 2009-10 largely due tp construction sector
Contraction in production in the mining sector, particularly in coal and natural gas segments
Gross Capital Formation in industry as percent to the overall GCF moderated to 48.3% in FY 11
Services Sector
Financial & non-financial services, IT, Telecomm, Real Estate constituted 41.9 % of total FDI equity inflows during April 2000-December 2011
FDI inflows to the Services Sector slowed down FY 10 & FY 11, dipping to negative zone
Moderation due to the steep fall in growth of public administration and defence services reflecting fiscal consolidation
Worry areas include real estate ownership of dwellings and business services segment
Trade
Indias exports grew at 23.5% to reach USD 242.8 bn in April 2011 - Jan 2012
Key performers in export - petroleum and oil products, gems and jewellery, engineering, cotton fabrics, electronics, readymade garments, drugs
Key import areas -POL (petroleum, oil and lubricant), gold and silver
Trade deficit in April-Jan 2011-12 at USD148.7 bn Vs USD 105.9 billion in last fiscal
Formal approvals granted for setting up of 583 SEZs of which 380 notified
Oil, Gold and Silver prices contribute to modest rise in current account deficit
Trade deficit more than 8 % of GDP and current account deficit more than 3 % sign of growing imbalance in BOP
Infrastructure
Performance of broad sectors and sub sectors in key infrastructure areas presents mixed picture
50% investment to come from private sector as against the 36% anticipated
Improvement in growth in power, petroleum refinery, cement, railway freight traffic, passenger handled
Coal, Natural Gas, Fertilizers, handling of Export Cargo at airports and number of cell phone connections show negative growth
Incremental credit flow to the infra sector in April-December 2011 nearly 61% in same period year before
Total FDI inflows into majors infrastructure sectors during April-December 2011 registered growth of 23.6%
Challenges on form plateauing of the domestic savings and macro availability of resources
Strengthening domestic financial institutions and development of long-term bonds market critical
Rupee
Rupee falls from 44.97 per USD in March 2011 to 51.34 per USD in January 2012
Financial Markets
Volatility in global financial markets likely to tighten availability and cost of foreign funding
Indian financial markets, especially currency and equity, performed under pressure in FY 12
Global market turmoil caused risk aversion and moderation in capital inflows
Global situation, rising trade imbalance, pace of reform initiatives to boost capital flows
Banking business may become more complex and riskier in future with greater global integration
Indias per capita CO2 emissions much lower than those of developed countries even if historical emissions are excluded
Five main challenges include climate change, food security, water security, energy security and managing urbanization
Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan norms revised to correspond with the provisions of the RTE Act
National Council for Teacher Education notified as the academic authority for teacher qualifications
Number of out-of-school children down from 134.6 lakh in 2005 to 81.5 lakh in 2009
Need to scale up the successful centres of innovations, create higher technical institutions
Labour Bureau Survey indicates upward trend in employment since July 2009 maintained
Government sets up committee for developing index for fixing MGNREGA wage rates