Lecture #4 - Overview

Statistics - Part 2

Statistical Tests Students t-Statistic and Confidence Intervals Students t-Test: Comparing Means F-Test: Comparing Standard Deviations

Statistical Tests
gives us tools to accept conclusions that have a high probability of being correct and to reject conclusions that do not

Gaussian Curve and Probability

x s

- +

y =

1 2

e-(x-)

2/22

x- (Table 4-1: Area) = x-x s

William Sealy Gosset a.k.a Student

Student (1908) The Probable Error of a Mean, Biometrika, 6: 1-25

Gaussian Curve and Probability

x s

- +

y =

1 2

e-(x-)

2/22

x- (Table 4-1: Area) = x-x s

The Sampling Distribution

Population (n=5): 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 = 2+3+4+5+6/5 = = =4
n not n-1 because population not sample

The Sampling Distribution

# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1st 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 2nd 2 3 4 5 6 2 3 4 5 6 2 3 4 x 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 3 3.5 4 # 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1st 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 2nd 5 6 2 3 4 5 6 2 3 4 5 6 x 4.5 5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

(2-4)2 + (3-4)2 + (6-4)2/(5) 1.414

Sample (n=2): Sample two at a time from the population

The Sampling Distribution

6 5 4 3 2 1 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 x = 4 x = 1 n = 25 = / n = standard error (SE) of the mean

The Sampling Distribution

z z z William Sealy Gosset
Analytical Chemist, Statistician, Brewer of the Worlds Finest Beerand Real Man of Genius

= = =

x - x x x - x ( / n ) x - x (s/ n ) = i(xi - x)2 n-1

but,

so, s n

Note: You must quadruple the sample size (4X) for half (1/2) the measurement error.

Gosset develop the t-distribution (= probabilities based on small sample sizes)

Confidence Intervals
an expression stating that the true mean, , is likely to lie within a certain distance from the measured mean, x. Students t Confidence Interval = x ts n

See Table 4-2

Statistical Tests to Compare Means

One-Tail #1 #2 Null Hypothesis Alternative Hypothesis H0 : x = y H1 : x y H0 : x = y H1 : x y #2/#3 x y Two-Tail #3 H0 : x = y H1 : x y

#1/#3 y

Statistical Tests to Compare Means

One-Tail #1 #2 Null Hypothesis Alternative Hypothesis H0 : x = y H1 : x y H0 : x = y H1 : x y Two-Tail #3 H0 : x = y H1 : x y

Comparison of Means with Students t-Test

1 1 2 2

Do we REJECT the null hypothesis? Calculate the probability that our measured mean of x is significantly different than mean of y Generally, reject if 95% certain they are different (= 5% chance of being equal) = statistically significant or significantly different Is 1 significantly different than 2?

Students t-Test Example 1

W. S. Gosset samples five aliquots of the new batch of Guinness, and measures lactic acid (which is responsible for the characteristic sour taste) by volumetric analysis. The standard lactic acid concentration is 1.00 g/L. The following are the measured concentrations of lactic acid in the new batch: 1.05, 1.13, 1.12, 1.21, 1.18 g/L. Are the levels of lactic acid significantly different?

Students t-Test Example 2

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid produced by two different strains of yeast to brew his Guinness. Gosset samples four aliquots of the batch produced with each of the yeast strains, and measures lactic acid by volumetric analysis. The following are the measured concentrations of lactic acid in the each batch: Batch 1: 1.02, 0.98, 0.99, 1.01 g/L Batch 2: 1.05, 1.01, 1.02, 0.99 g/L Are the levels of lactic acid significantly different using the two different strains? Calculate means/standard deviations: x1 = 1.000 0.018 x2 = 1.018 0.025

x = 1.138 s = 0.061 n=5

Compute 95% confidence interval:

ts n

= (1.138) (2.776)(0.061)/ 5 = 1.138 0.076

Calculate t-statistic: Tcalculated = | x1 - x2| spooled n 1n 2 n1 + n2 spooled = s12 (n1-1) + s22 (n2-1) n1 + n2 -2

95% confidence interval: 1.062 to 1.214 Lactic acid in the new batch is significantly different from the standard

Students t-Test Example 2

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid produced by two different strains of yeast to brew his Guinness. Gosset samples four aliquots of the batch produced with each of the yeast strains, and measures lactic acid by volumetric analysis. The following are the measured concentrations of lactic acid in the each batch: Batch 1: 1.02, 0.98, 0.99, 1.01 g/L Batch 2: 1.05, 1.01, 1.02, 0.99 g/L Are the levels of lactic acid significantly different using the two different strains? Calculate means/standard deviations: x1 = 1.000 0.018 x2 = 1.018 0.025

Students t-Test Example 2

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid produced by two different strains of yeast to brew his Guinness. Gosset samples four aliquots of the batch produced with each of the yeast strains, and measures lactic acid by volumetric analysis. The following are the measured concentrations of lactic acid in the each batch: Batch 1: 1.02, 0.98, 0.99, 1.01 g/L Batch 2: 1.05, 1.01, 1.02, 0.99 g/L Are the levels of lactic acid significantly different using the two different strains? Calculate means/standard deviations: x1 = 1.000 0.018 x2 = 1.018 0.025

Calculate t-statistic: spooled = (0.018)2 (4-1) + (0.025)2 (4-1) 4 + 4 -2 = 0.022 Tcalculated = | 1.000 - 1.018| 0.022 (4)(4) 4+4 = 1.130

Students t-Test Example 2

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid produced by two different strains of yeast to brew his Guinness. Gosset samples four aliquots of the batch produced with each of the yeast strains, and measures lactic acid by volumetric analysis. The following are the measured concentrations of lactic acid in the each batch: Batch 1: 1.02, 0.98, 0.99, 1.01 g/L Batch 2: 1.05, 1.01, 1.02, 0.99 g/L Are the levels of lactic acid significantly different using the two different strains? Calculate means/standard deviations: x1 = 1.000 0.018 x2 = 1.018 0.025

Compare tcalculated to ttable: 1.130 vs. 2.447 (t-statistic, 95% confidence,

degrees of freedom = n1 + n2 - 2)

If tcalculated > ttable, then reject null hypothesis (= significantly different) We can NOT reject null hypothesis (= not significantly different)

Students t-Test
Assume standard deviations are same. How do we determine if they are the same?

F-Test
Fcalculated = (s1)2 (s2)2
Larger Standard Deviation in Numerator (F 1)

If Fcalculated > Ftable, then difference is significant Use alternative equation (Eq. 4.8a/4.9a) for tcalculated

Students t-Test Example 2

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid produced by two different strains of yeast to brew his Guinness. Gosset samples four aliquots of the batch produced with each of the yeast strains, and measures lactic acid by volumetric analysis. The following are the measured concentrations of lactic acid in the each batch: Batch 1: 1.02, 0.98, 0.99, 1.01 g/L Batch 2: 1.05, 1.01, 1.02, 0.99 g/L Are the levels of lactic acid significantly different using the two different strains? Calculate means/standard deviations: x1 = 1.000 0.018 x2 = 1.018 0.025

Students t-Test Example 3

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid in his 6 different aliquots of his beer by two different volumetric methods. Each aliquot is tested by each method; the measured lactic acid in each aliquot determined by the two methods are given below: Aliquot 1 2 3 4 5 6 Lactic Acid (g/L) Method 1 Method 2 1.03 1.09 1.01 1.11 1.05 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.12

Paired t-Test

= (0.025)2/(0.018)2 = 1.929 Ftable = 9.28 [95% confidence, n1-1 = 3, n2-1 = 3] Not significantly different

Fcalcuated

Do the two methods give the same result?

Students t-Test Example 3

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid in his 6 different aliquots of his beer by two different volumetric methods. Each aliquot is tested by each method; the measured lactic acid in each aliquot determined by the two methods are given below: Aliquot 1 2 3 4 5 6 Lactic Acid (g/L) Method 1 Method 2 1.03 1.09 1.01 1.11 1.05 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.12 d -0.06 -0.10 +0.02 -0.03 +0.01 -0.08

Students t-Test Example 3

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid in his 6 different aliquots of his beer by two different volumetric methods. Each aliquot is tested by each method; the measured lactic acid in each aliquot determined by the two methods are given below: Aliquot 1 2 3 4 5 6 Lactic Acid (g/L) Method 1 Method 2 1.03 1.09 1.01 1.11 1.05 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.12 d= sd = d -0.06 -0.10 +0.02 -0.03 +0.01 -0.08 -0.040 0.049

Step 1: Determine differences (d)

Step 2: Calculate d and sd

Do the two methods give the same result?

Do the two methods give the same result?

Students t-Test Example 3

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid in his 6 different aliquots of his beer by two different volumetric methods. Each aliquot is tested by each method; the measured lactic acid in each aliquot determined by the two methods are given below: Aliquot 1 2 3 4 5 6 Lactic Acid (g/L) Method 1 Method 2 1.03 1.09 1.01 1.11 1.05 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.12 d= sd = d -0.06 -0.10 +0.02 -0.03 +0.01 -0.08 -0.040 0.049

Students t-Test Example 3

W. S. Gosset compares the levels of lactic acid in his 6 different aliquots of his beer by two different volumetric methods. Each aliquot is tested by each method; the measured lactic acid in each aliquot determined by the two methods are given below: Aliquot 1 2 3 4 5 6 Lactic Acid (g/L) Method 1 Method 2 1.03 1.09 1.01 1.11 1.05 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.12 d= sd = d -0.06 -0.10 +0.02 -0.03 +0.01 -0.08 -0.040 0.049

Step 2: Calculate t-statistic: tcalculated = |d| n sd = 2.017

Step 2: Compare to ttable: ttable = 2.571 tcalculated < ttable (2.017) (2.571) Not Significantly Different

Do the two methods give the same result?

Do the two methods give the same result?