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Yes Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 4QFY12 448 430 272 3QFY12 428 399 254 % chg (qoq) 4.8 7.9 7.0 4QFY11 349 349 203 % chg (yoy) 28.6 23.4 33.6
BUY
CMP Target Price Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 12,605 1.3 389/231 450,719 10 17,131 5,189 YESB.BO YES@IN
Yes Bank reported a strong performance for 4QFY2012. The banks net profit grew by 33.6% yoy to `272cr, in-line with our estimates. Strong momentum in savings account deposits and maintenance of healthy asset quality were the key positive takeaways from the results. We recommend Buy on the stock. Momentum in savings account deposits keeps NIM stable sequentially: On a yoy basis, advances and deposit growth for the bank was below system-average at 10.5% and 7.0%, respectively. Credit substitutes portfolio for the bank, however, continued to grow at a strong pace (growth of 104.5% yoy). Savings deposits more than doubled sequentially to `2,501cr, with incremental saving deposits per branch for the bank increasing significantly from `1.0cr in 3QFY2012 to `3.6cr for 4QFY2012. The significant traction in SA deposits helped the bank maintain its cost of funds sequentially, despite tight liquidity conditions that prevailed during most of the quarter and additional borrowings during 4QFY2012. The banks investment book as a proportion of interest-earning assets increased during 4QFY2012 on the back of healthy growth in credit substitutes, which led to sequentially flat yields on assets for the bank. Consequently, the banks NIM remained flat sequentially at 2.8%. During 4QFY2012, the banks non-interest income grew strongly by 26.0% qoq to `266cr on account of strong growth in financial markets (up 42.4% qoq) and financial advisory (up 26.6% qoq) based fee income. Outlook and valuation: Yes Bank has taken challenges of building a retail deposit base head-on, nearly doubling its branch network over the past 15 months to 356 branches and aggressively increasing savings rate to 7% as a smart customer-acquisition strategy. In our view, the bank is in a sweet spot, wherein retail franchise growth is likely to remain strong as large banks cede some market share to it rather than offering higher savings rates to their entire customer base. Even with retail growth prospects being stronger now, valuations at 1.8x FY2014E ABV are still cheaper than peers such as IndusInd Bank (2.4x FY2014 ABV) as well as its own historical median (2.5x over FY2007-FY2012), providing a favorable risk-return trade-off in our view. Hence, we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `469. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 26.1 20.4 47.2 6.4
3m 0.1 8.9
FY2011 1,247 58.2 727 52.2 2.7 20.9 17.0 3.3 1.5 21.1
FY2012 1,616 29.6 977 34.4 2.6 27.7 12.9 2.7 1.5 23.1
FY2013E 2,103 30.2 1,196 22.4 2.7 33.9 10.5 2.2 1.4 23.1
FY2014E 2,731 29.9 1,466 22.5 2.8 41.5 8.6 1.8 1.4 23.3
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 Sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,785 1,196 578 6 4 1,337 448 266 48 81 64 19 715 284 134 151 430 28 402 130 272 32.4 1,684 1,173 506 5 1 1,256 428 211 41 98 61 14 639 240 122 118 399 22 376 122 254 32.5 6.0 2.0 14.3 28.5 678.9 6.4 4.8 26.0 17.8 (17.6) 4.9 30.8 11.8 18.3 9.9 27.1 7.9 27.4 6.7 6.3 7.0 (14)bp 1,223 888 327 6 1 874 349 187 41 54 50 17 535 186 103 83 349 43 306 102 203 33.4 46.0 34.7 76.9 4.5 231.3 52.9 28.6 42.6 17.8 50.7 28.3 7.5 33.5 52.4 29.8 80.3 23.4 (34.2) 31.5 27.4 33.6 (106)bp
Var. (%) (1.3) 15.6 4.4 7.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 4.7 1.6
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 37,989 49,152 77.3 2,501 7,392 15.0 17.9 9.9 12.5 9.0 2.8 39.8 84 0.2 17 0.05 79.2 35,868 46,929 76.4 1,203 5,914 12.6 16.1 9.2 12.4 8.9 2.8 37.6 72 0.2 14 0.04 80.0 5.9 4.7 86bp 108.0 25.0 244bp 181bp 70bp 10bp 10bp 0bp 219bp 16.4 2bp 21.2 1bp (82)bp 34,364 45,939 74.8 851 4,751 10.3 16.5 9.7 10.7 7.8 2.8 34.8 81 0.2 9 0.0 88.6 10.5 7.0 249bp 194.0 55.6 470bp 144bp 20bp 180bp 120bp 0bp 493bp 4.1 (1)bp 90.8 2bp (946)bp
12 23
12 24
15 24
15 21
18 22
54.8
26.1
12.7
15.3
71.4
44.1
10.2
18.9
7.0
20.0 -
10.5
20 -
60
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
in
savings
deposits
post
savings
rate
The bank had aggressively hiked savings account interest rates immediately post the de-regulation, which is leading to a paradigm shift in the banks franchise from a predominantly wholesale franchise to one that will increasingly have a much needed retail play as well. Highlighting the strong traction, savings account deposits more than doubled sequentially to `2,501cr (almost tripled on an absolute basis since the savings deposit rate deregulation in October 2011). The bank opened ~1lakh new accounts during 4QFY2012 as compared to the quarterly run-rate of ~25,000 prior to savings rate deregulation. In fact, incremental saving deposits per branch for the bank increased from `1.0cr in 3QFY2012 to `3.6cr for 4QFY2012 and was higher than the `1.8cr achieved by IndusInd Bank during the quarter. Consequently, CASA ratio for the bank increased substantially by 244bp qoq (470bp yoy) to 15.0. The share of retail deposits (CASA and retail banking term deposits) has now risen to 32.7% of total deposits from 23.5% a year ago, thereby reducing the banks dependence on higher costing bulk corporate deposits. During the quarter, the bank opened 25 branches (taking its network size to 356 branches). Management has guided for annual additions of 125+ branches going forward.
70.0
12.6
Exhibit 8: Incremental saving account deposits for Yes Bank higher than IndusInd
Particulars Yes Bank IndusInd Bank SA 4QFY12 2,501 4,694 SA 3QFY12 1,203 3,977 SA qoq (%) 108.0 18.0 Branch 356 400 Inc SA/ branch in 4QFY12 3.6 1.8 Inc SA/ branch in 3QFY12 1.0 1.9
2.8
2.6
Exhibit 11: Overall other income growth remains healthy at 42.6% yoy
Particulars (` cr) Financial markets Financial advisory Transaction banking Retail and others Other income 4QFY12 69 102 70 26 266 3QFY12 48 81 64 19 212 % chg (qoq) 42.4 26.6 9.5 36.9 26.0 4QFY11 24 77 65 20 187 % chg (yoy) 185.5 32.1 7.0 27.4 42.6
1.6
1.4
5.0
9.7
9.6
9.4
9.2
9.9
Investment arguments
Savings rates deregulation aiding retail customer acquisition
Yes Bank had aggressively hiked savings interest rates immediately post the deregulation, which is leading to a paradigm shift in the banks franchise from a predominantly wholesale franchise to one that will increasingly have a much needed retail play as well. Savings rate deregulation does not allow banks to offer differential rates to different groups of customers and, hence, it would be unfavorable for larger players to offer higher rates to their entire customer base just to protect some amount of market share from competition from smaller players such as Yes Bank (~33,000 branches and `8lakh cr savings deposits for large banks compared to ~350 branches and `2,501cr savings deposits for Yes Bank). While the loss in market share for larger players would be minor, the gain for smaller banks such as Yes Bank offering higher savings rates is expected to be significant, especially considering the low bases of their retail franchises. Yes Bank has witnessed strong traction in its savings deposits with SA deposits more than doubling sequentially and almost tripling on an absolute basis since the savings rate deregulation in October 2011. Even incremental saving deposits per branch for the bank increased from `1.0cr in 3QFY2012 to `3.6cr for 4QFY2012 and was higher than the `1.8cr achieved by IndusInd Bank during the quarter. We expect the strong pace in savings deposit accretion for the bank to continue going ahead as well.
Investment concerns
Medium-term downside risks to RoAs
The banks credit market share has steadily increased on the back of a robust credit CAGR of 41.7% over FY2008-12, which at 0.8% represents an increasingly meaningful market share. The bank has so far managed to source loans with relatively above-average profitability, keeping its NIM above 2.7% since FY2009, in spite of just 15.0% CASA ratio. Going forward though, as the size of the balance sheet increases, we believe RoA compression remains a risk to the bank. Having said that, the recent deregulation of savings account rates and the consequent strong accretion of SA deposits for Yes Bank are likely to aid in countering this impact.
Earlier estimates FY2013 27.0 28.0 19.5 2.8 27.4 33.8 33.8 0.5 FY2014 29.0 29.0 23.5 2.9 31.0 34.0 34.0 0.7
Revised estimates FY2013 24.0 25.0 20.1 2.7 29.0 37.0 37.0 0.5 FY2014 25.0 25.0 25.1 2.8 27.7 31.0 31.0 0.8
FY2013 FY2014 Earlier Revised Earlier Revised Var. (%) Var. (%) estimates estimates estimates estimates
2,115 1,046 3,161 1,222 1,939 174 1,766 573 1,193 2,103 1,106 3,209 1,278 1,932 161 1,771 574 1,196 (0.6) 5.7 1.5 4.5 (0.4) (7.3) 0.3 0.3 0.3 2,748 1,371 4,118 1,638 2,481 313 2,168 704 1,465 2,731 1,413 4,144 1,674 2,470 301 2,170 704 1,466 (0.6) 3.1 0.6 2.2 (0.4) (3.8) 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dec-05
Aug-07
Dec-10
Jul-05
Nov-08
May-06
May-11
Aug-12
Apr-09
Mar-07
Jul-10
Mar-12
Oct-06
Feb-10
Sep-09
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
Jan-13
10
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
11
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 331 92.9 361 79.7 691 85.8 341 76.3 350 96.0 44 24.9 306 113.3 106 34.7 200 111.9 FY09 511 54.6 435 20.6 946 36.9 419 22.7 528 50.7 62 41.6 466 52.0 162 34.8 304 51.9 FY10 788 54.1 576 32.3 1,363 44.1 500 19.5 863 63.6 137 121.6 726 55.9 249 34.2 478 57.2 FY11 1,247 58.2 623 8.3 1,870 37.2 680 35.9 1,190 37.9 98 (28.2) 1,092 50.3 365 33.4 727 52.2 FY12 1,616 29.6 857 37.5 2,473 32.2 933 37.2 1,540 29.4 90 (8.1) 1,450 32.8 473 32.6 977 34.4 FY13E 2,103 30.2 1,106 29.0 3,209 29.8 1,278 37.0 1,932 25.4 161 78.6 1,771 22.1 574 32.4 1,196 22.4 FY14E 2,731 29.9 1,413 27.7 4,144 29.1 1,674 31.0 2,470 27.9 301 86.7 2,170 22.5 704 32.4 1,466 22.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 296 1,023 13,273 61.5 986 728 677 16,982 959 668 5,094 9,430 49.9 101 730 16,982 52.9 FY09 297 1,327 16,169 21.8 2,189 1,513 1,405 22,901 1,278 645 7,117 12,403 31.5 131 1,327 22,901 34.8 FY10 340 2,750 26,799 65.7 2,564 2,185 1,745 36,383 1,995 678 10,210 22,193 78.9 115 1,191 36,383 58.9 FY11 347 3,447 45,939 71.4 3,333 3,358 2,583 59,007 3,076 420 18,829 34,364 54.8 132 2,186 59,007 62.2 FY12 353 4,324 49,152 7.0 6,002 8,154 5,677 73,662 2,333 1,253 27,757 37,989 10.5 177 4,153 73,662 24.8 FY13E 353 5,335 61,440 25.0 7,503 10,111 7,336 2,458 1,566 35,541 47,106 24.0 215 5,192 25.0 FY14E 353 6,555 76,800 25.0 9,337 12,639 8,899 3,072 1,949 43,958 58,882 25.0 259 6,461 24.4
92,078 114,582
92,078 114,582
12
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.4 0.3 2.0 0.4 2.5 2.1 4.6 2.4 2.2 0.8 1.4 13.3 19.0 2.6 0.3 2.3 0.7 3.0 1.4 4.4 2.1 2.3 0.8 1.5 13.6 20.6 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.3 2.5 1.6 4.1 1.7 2.5 0.8 1.6 12.6 20.3 2.6 0.2 2.4 (0.1) 2.3 1.4 3.7 1.4 2.3 0.8 1.5 13.9 21.1 2.4 0.1 2.3 0.0 2.3 1.2 3.6 1.4 2.2 0.7 1.5 15.7 23.1 2.5 0.2 2.3 0.0 2.4 1.3 3.7 1.5 2.1 0.7 1.4 16.0 23.1 2.6 0.3 2.4 0.0 2.4 1.3 3.7 1.6 2.1 0.7 1.4 16.4 23.3 52.8 8.0 34.9 6.6 25.4 3.9 0.4 17.0 3.3 0.7 12.9 2.7 1.1 10.5 2.2 1.3 8.6 1.8 1.7 6.8 44.6 10.2 53.9 14.1 1.5 20.9 2.5 27.7 4.0 33.9 4.5 41.5 6.0 91.0 109.3 132.5 161.1 195.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 80.0 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.3 48.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 78.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 88.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 79.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 79.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.2 79.1 8.5 71.0 13.6 8.5 8.7 76.7 16.6 9.5 10.5 82.8 20.6 12.9 10.3 74.8 16.5 9.7 15.0 77.3 23.8 9.6 20.1 76.7 23.5 9.3 25.1 76.7 23.4 9.1 2.5 49.4 1.4 19.0 2.7 44.2 1.5 20.6 2.8 36.7 1.6 20.3 2.7 36.3 1.5 21.1 2.6 37.7 1.5 23.1 2.7 39.8 1.4 23.1 2.8 40.4 1.4 23.3 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Yes Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14