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HCC
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) (3.9) (49.1) 3QFY12 946 113 (130) % chg (qoq) 22.2 (21.9) -
`20 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2012, HCC continued its poor performance on the numbers front as expected. HCCs top line came in higher-than-expected owing to inclusion of arbitration award in the top line. Further, abysmal EBITDAM and high interest cost lead to higher-than-expected loss at the earnings level. The total outstanding order book stands at `15,336cr (excluding L1 orders of `1,713cr) with muted order inflow of `1,889cr (decline of ~44% on yoy basis) for FY2012. Owing to concerns such as slowdown in order inflow, high debt and stretched working capital, we remain Neutral on the stock. Dismal performance continues: On the top-line front, HCCs revenue declined by 3.9% yoy to `1,156cr against our estimate of `1,022cr. However, it includes ~`166cr (total arbitration award `256cr) of arbitration award excluding which it would have stood at ~`990cr. EBITDAM came in at shocking 7.6%, a dip of 680bp yoy and lower than our estimate of 11.8%. On the earnings front, HCC reported a loss of `54cr vs. profit of `23cr in 4QFY2011, against our estimate of loss of `23cr owing to lower EBITDA margin and higher interest cost. Interest cost witnessed an increase of 39.4% and 6.3% on yoy and qoq basis respectively. Outlook and valuation: On the back of poor performance in 4QFY2012 we are revising our estimates downwards for FY2013 and FY2014. The outlook for HCC remains bleak given the fact that its execution has slowed down considerably; its balance sheet is loaded with debt resulting in high interest cost. Although HCC is hoping to get approval for final debt restructuring package in next 30-35 days we believe HCC has long way to go before the company is able to turnaround itself. Hence we continue to maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Further, in the infrastructure space, we believe there are better bets than HCC such as L&T, Sadbhav and IRB.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 39.9 11.3 24.4 24.5
3m
1yr
FY2011 4,093 12.3 71 (12.8) 13.2 1.2 17.3 0.8 4.7 8.3 1.1 8.4
FY2012 3,988 (2.6) (222) (413.0) 11.0 (3.7) 1.0 (16.1) 5.0 1.4 12.8
FY2013E 4,239 6.3 (109) (51.0) 11.1 (1.8) 1.2 (9.5) 4.9 1.3 11.7
FY2014E 4,522 6.7 (47) (56.5) 11.7 (0.8) 1.3 (4.7) 5.9 1.2 10.3
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 1,156 1,068 88 7.6 151 40 28 (75) (21) (54) (4.7) (0.9)
3QFY12 946 834 113 11.9 142 41 46 (166) (191) (61) (130) (13.8) (2.1)
FY2012 3,988 3,548 440 11.0 543 162 113 (166) (318) (96) (222) (5.6) (3.7)
FY2011 4,091 3,550 541 13.2 329 153 53 112 41 71 1.7 1.2
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
Lavasa update
The Ministry of Environment and Forest (MOEF), through its order dated 9th November, 2011 accorded environment clearance to the 1st phase of Lavasa. As per the company, Lavasa has completed booking for all residential property in its first town Dasve. Further, it has also launched new apartments in its second town Mugaon and expects things to pick up speed by October 2012. For FY2012 Lavasa posted revenue of `75.3cr and loss of `138cr and has a debt of ~`2,200cr which the company is trying to restructure.
4QFY12
5.0
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
(4.7)
(5.0)
(4.9)
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
(13.8)
(10.0)
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
3QFY12
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
4QFY12
(20.0)
FY2014E Variation (%) (2.6) (130)bp Earlier estimates 4,728 12.7 39 Revised estimates 4,522 11.7 (47) Variation (%) (4.3) (100)bp 4,239 11.1 (109)
Revised estimates
The outlook for HCC remains bleak given the fact that its execution has slowed down considerably; its balance sheet is loaded with debt resulting in high interest cost. Although HCC is hoping to get approval for final debt restructuring package in next 30-35 days we believe HCC has long way to go before the company is able to turnaround itself. Hence, we continue to maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Further, in the infrastructure space, we believe there are better bets than HCC such as L&T, Sadbhav and IRB.
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 7,616 3,314 14,460 4.4 6,054 3,644 16,870 4.6 3,410 4,093 16,187 4.0 3,137 3,988 15,336 3.8 2,382 4,239 13,479 3.2 2,731 4,522 11,687 2.6
Recommendation rationale
Huge investments and elongated working capital = Balance sheet stretched: HCCs balance sheet is loaded with debt (~`4,293cr as of 4QFY2012; net D/E = 3.2 standalone level) because of its BOT/real estate investments and funding of its working capital requirements. Going ahead as well, owing to its commitments, we believe HCC will not get any respite on these fronts. Deteriorating business environment: Slowdown on the execution front, along with macro headwinds faced by the sector, has resulted in eroding the companys profitability. Further, the fact that there are no signs of reversal in sight paints a bleak outlook for the company in the medium term. Uncertainty on the Lavasa project: Lavasa received clearance for the construction and development for Phase 1 in November 2011, post one year of legal battle with MOEF, which resulted in huge losses to HCC. However, the project still remains under the cloud of uncertainty and continues to be an overhang on the stock.
Buy 13,963 16,017 18,359 Buy 53,779 60,258 69,900 Buy Buy 1,952 4,946 3,573 2,604 5,929 2,503 5,790 3,609 2,989 6,732 2,903 7,022 3,836 3,314 7,902
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order book to sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Work. cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 2.2 5.0 1.5 1.5 5.3 1.6 2.2 6.1 1.2 3.6 10.0 0.5 4.0 9.1 0.6 4.4 8.0 0.7 2.1 271 1 153 172 2.1 318 1 186 207 2.2 360 0 229 250 1.9 434 0 278 327 1.9 413 0 286 319 1.8 366 0 298 268 9.9 10.6 7.6 8.6 9.0 6.5 8.3 8.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 (16.1) 4.9 5.0 (9.5) 5.9 6.0 (4.7) 9.5 0.8 1.1 8.1 7.7 1.9 8.7 9.0 0.7 1.0 6.0 5.7 1.8 6.7 9.5 0.6 0.9 5.5 7.0 1.8 2.7 7.0 0.7 0.7 3.6 9.5 2.9 (13.2) 6.7 0.7 0.7 3.4 7.7 3.8 (12.9) 7.2 0.7 0.8 4.0 7.3 4.2 (9.7) 3.0 1.3 3.2 0.8 16.6 2.7 1.3 3.2 0.8 25.0 1.2 1.2 3.7 0.9 25.1 (3.7) (3.7) (1.0) 0.9 20.4 (1.8) (1.8) 1.3 0.9 17.5 (0.8) (0.8) 2.6 0.9 15.7 16.2 6.4 1.2 3.9 1.0 7.9 1.0 4.4 15.1 6.3 0.8 3.9 1.0 8.0 0.9 4.6 17.3 5.5 0.8 4.4 1.1 8.4 0.9 4.0 1.0 4.4 1.4 12.8 1.0 3.8 15.7 1.2 4.4 1.3 11.7 1.0 3.2 7.7 1.3 4.4 1.2 10.3 1.0 2.6 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
HCC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12