Page 1 of 42

Page 2 of 42

TABLE OF CONTENTS
S.No. Content Page No.
I Table of contents 2
II List of tables 3
III List of figures 3-4
1 Abstract 5
2 Introduction 5
3 World population forecasting 6-7
a. Energy demand Analysis 8
b. Growth Rate based Method 9
c. Elastic based demand forecasting 9
d. Specific consumption Method 9
e. Ratio or intensity Method 9
f. Scheer Formula for estimating the generation 10
g. Belgium Formula 10
4 World Energy Demand 10-11
5 Regional Energy use 11-13
6 Energy Demand Management 14
7 Economic Analysis of Energy investment 14-16
8 Pakistan Energy Demand Forecasting and Supply
Demand Gap
16-26
9 Energy and Economic Growth 26
10 Energy Crisis in Pakistan 26-27
a. Gilgit-Baltistan Population forecasting 28-29
b. Energy Demand of Gilgit-Baltistan 29-33
c. Blue-print of Energy Demand-Supply Gap 34-35
Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisis 35-37
11. Conclusion 37
12. Bibliography 38-43












Page 3 of 42


List of Tables
S.No. Description Page
No.
1 World Energy Demand Calculations 11
2 Regional Energy use (kwh/capita) 12
3 US Electricity by source and weightage average cost per
kwh
13
4 Projected US Electricity generation by source 13
5 The minimum and Maximum Values used in the
calculation of the 2010 Energy Development Index.
14
6 level of electrification in various regions 16
7 Province wise potential of hydroelectricity in Pakistan 20
8 Pakistan Energy Demand Calculation.(1947-2011) 21
9 Pakistan Company wise Energy Sources 27
10 Pakistan Energy Supply Mix 27
11 District wise Population of Gilgit-Baltistan (2011) 28
12 Hydropower Projects in Gilgit-Baltistan (2011) 30
13 GB, identified hydroelectricity sites and capacities. 31
14 GB Energy Demand Calculation 32


List of Figures
S.No Description Page
No.
1 World Population (2006-2010) 6
2 Region wise population growth rate 7
3 Countries having negative population growth rates 7
4 GDP Growth Rate by Region 8
5 World Net Energy Demand (1804-2050) 12
6 Pakistan Population growth trend (1947-2050) 17
7 Pakistan Population growth rate (2000-2011) 17
8 GDP Growth Rate (1999-2010). 18
9 Energy Supply Mix (2007) 18
10 Energy Consumption Mix (2007) 18
11 Per Capita Energy Consumption 19
12 Pakistan Net Energy Demand (1947-2050) 22
13 Pakistan Energy Demand based on discrete wattage (1947-
2050)
23
14 Pakistan Energy demand, on different wattage and firm
supply (1947-2050)
23
Page 4 of 42

15 Pakistan Firm Energy Supply (1947-2011) 24
16 Pakistan Energy deficit scenario(1998-2011) 24
17 Pakistan Energy Supply & Demand scenario.(1997-2010) 25
18 Energy Deficit scenario (1947-2050) 25
19 Energy Deficit (1947-2050) 26
20 Gilgit-Baltistan, showing Population, administrative set up
and area
29
21 GB per capita energy consumption& Comparison with
National Standard.
30
22 GB, District wise firm energy 31
23 Region wise installed capacity of energy 32
24 GB Energy supply and demand scenario 32
25 GB Demand Supply histogram 33
26 Blue print of energy in GB based on 200W/C/D 33
27 Blue print of energy in GB based on 302W/C/D 34
28 Blue print of energy in GB based on 608W/C/D 34







Page 5 of 42


ENGINEERING ECONOMICS
Abstract
Power consumption is an indicator of development of any country.
So in order to provide adequate sustenance to destitute masses, supply to our
industries, booming the shattered economy from dominos to dynamos, to bring all
barren lands under cultivation, help improving environmental conditions we have to
capture and optimize energy resources.

The energy growth rate should increase with the growth of population. By dint of
rising of oil prices in the world oil market for sustainable development renewable
energy resources have to exploit and potential sites should be explored well in time
prior facing the music of energy crisis. Pakistan despite having enormous coal
reserves and potential sites for harnessing environmentally friendly hydroelectricity
sources has become an energy deficit country and relying on imported furnace oil,
and rapidly depleting gas reserves. Utilization of non conventional energy resources
like wind, solar, photovoltaic, biomass, geothermal, agricultural residue, tidal energy,
ethane gas (C
2
H
6
) etc. is imperative for sustainable development.


1. Introduction

World population is increasing exponentially but the energy resources are
diminishing with respective to population growth rate. World energy economics
indicates that energy consumption is the barometer of economic growth of any
country. Regional population statistics depicts that population of South Asian
countries, African continent are increasing by leaps and bound. Despite having one
child policy chinas population is shooting up and after next thirty years India will
supersede China. China is exploiting its manpower and despite having lower energy
consumption its economy is growing considerably. There is a tendency among the
countries of the world for a correlation between income growth and growth in energy
consumption. Although the correlation is not perfect but some relationship holds
good for many countries. The ratio of energy consumption to GDP is defined as the
energy intensity of the economy. The GDP grows through the increase in population
and results in an increase in energy consumption also. Therefore, growth of GDP
virtually parallels that of energy consumption.

Per capita energy consumption of Pakistan during 2011, is only 124Watt/capita/day,
in comparison to 682.40W/c/d of India, 1516W/c/d of China and 10381.2W/c/d of
USA. An exerted effort in the realm of improvement of living standard of people is
imperative. The lower per capita energy consumption represents negative differential
in the quality of life of Pakistani people. We have to provide clean, reliable, economic
energy at eighty four times the current availability to every one of 187.343 million
Pakistanis.
Uplifting of socio-economic condition calls for energy. Thermal:hydro ratio has to be
reversed and coal reserve has to be exploited and potential sites has to be explored
for harnessing environmentally friendly energy.

1. World Population Forecasting
Page 6 of 42

Population statistics indicates that Friday, 13 November, 2026, has particular
significance as according to Von Foerster et al (1960), the world population
P can be described by the expression,

(
99 . 0 11
) 87 . 2026 ( 10 * 79 . 1

= T P

Where T is the time series 0 AD. The constant 2026.87 represents the date
at which P goes to infinity and corresponds to the above mentioned date. Dr.
M.J Hall mentioned that despite publishing 1960, above equation has proved
to be reasonably accurate. For 1989 the expression gives 4.9* 10
9,
close to
the estimated world population of 5.2*10
9
. For 2000, the equation gives
6.88*10
9
, compared with the estimates 6.2*10
9
. The calculation shows world
population in 2011 is 7 billion, where as in 2025 it will be 8 billion, in 2043 it
will be 9 billion and in 2083 it will touch the mark of 10 billion that are in close
proximity to the estimated figures.



Fig: 1, World Population (2006-2010)

Statistics show that population of Asian and African regions are increasing
exponentially where as population growth rate of other continents are slightly under
permissible control. Population of China, India and Pakistan etc. is increasing by
leaps and bounds.





6300
6400
6500
6600
6700
6800
6900
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
6545.88444
6623.57196
6700.76588
6776.91747
6853.01941
World Population (Millions)
Page 7 of 42

Fig: 2, Region wise population growth rate





Fig: 3 Countries having negative population growth rates
Source: CIA World Fact Book.






-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

Population Growth by Region (Compound annual growth rates)
1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035 2008-2035
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
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Countries having negative population growth
rates (%)
Page 8 of 42


Fig: 4, GDP Growth Rate by Region

The demands for basic amenities of life like energy, water etc. is perpetually increasing
rapidly, driven by the rising population and the continuing expansion of urban conurbations,
which themselves account for 90 percent of population growth. Such abrupt growth causes
increases in demand for food supplies which stimulates an expansion of irrigated
agriculture, establishment of industrial units, and production of energy, which encourages
further energy development there by compounding the problems of matching demand for
energy with supply. Energy being one of the fundamental rights of every body can not be
denied and only 65% of world population has an access to energy and the remaining 35 %
is still deprived from the basic amenities like energy. In this respect we can quote Eritrea,
Haiti, Ethiopia and democratic republic of Congo. So concrete steps have to take by
individual country and international organizations that may help boost up economic growth,
consequently every country will transform into a welfare state and the world may change
into an omen of peace and tranquility. The world energy usage width chart shows that
percentage of oil is 37%, coal 25%, gas 23%, nuclear 6%, biomass 4%, hydro 3%, solar
heat 0.5%, wind 0.3%, geothermal 0.2%, biofuels 0.2% and solar photovoltaic 0.04%.

(a). Energy Demand Analysis.
Energy economics being one of the vibrant fields of applied economics has tangible
application in the economic study of any country, industry, organization or institution
at large. In a broad spectrum a macro level analysis is beneficial to understand the
general and global issues and policy directions. According to (S.C Bhattacharyya P;
77), Energy demand is not homogeneous across different uses and therefore the
demand determinants and behavioral factors influencing them vary from one sector
to another.


Macro demand analysis contains certain short comings by dint of that
disaggregated demand analysis with or without macro demand analysis is
1990-2008
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
O
E
C
D
N
o
r
t
h

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U
n
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Real GDP Growth by Region Compound Average Annual Growth Rates)
1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035 2008-2035
Page 9 of 42

imperative and hence the final energy demand has to be broken down into discrete
sectors and sub sectors,
such as transport, residential, commercial, agriculture, industry and non energy
uses. It is also imperative to note that energy demand proportionally varies from one
country to another depending on the degree of industrialization and stage of
economic development of the country. During calculating the energy demand the
captive power that is the self generation of industries should also be taken into
account, like wise the consumption of energy for international air and water transport
should be excluded since this consumption is considered as export. In energy
economics following energy demand forecasting methods are used:
(b). Growth Rate based Method.
t
t
r E E ) 1 (
0
+ =
Where, r is the growth rate in demand and E
0
is the demand in year 0
then E
t
is the net energy in a time period t.
This is the most simple and widely used method in energy economics.


. Elastic-based demand forecasting
We use the following formula:
{ }
{ }
| |
| |
t
t
t
t
t
I
I
EC
EC
e
A
A
=
Where, t= time period
Ec = energy consumption
I = driving variable of energy consumption such as GDP, value added, price,
income etc.
= change in variable.



(d). Specific consumption Method
U A E * =
Where, A = level of activity
U = energy required per unit of activity.



. Ratio or intensity Method
Energy intensity is defined as follows:
(

=
Q
E
EI
Where, E = energy demand,
EI = energy intensity
Q = Out put.


Page 10 of 42

(f). Scheer Formula for estimating the Generation Requirement
U C G
10 10
log 15 . 0 log =
)
`

=
15 . 0
10
U
G
C

Where:
G = Annual growth in generation (per cent)
U = Per capita generation
C = constant = 0.02 ( Population growth rate) + 1.330


(g). Belgium Formula

t
KM E
465 . 0 6 . 0
) 2 ( =
Where: E = electricity consumption
M= index of manufacturing of production,
t = time for which consumption is to be projected
K = adjustment factor.


4-World Energy Demand
According to IEA report, global power demand will surge 2.2% annually through 2035.
World population has been calculated by Von Foersters formula up to the calendar year
2026, beyond that it has been estimated based on recognized growth rate through
exponential growth formula and compared with actual available data of world population
statistics. The estimated values are in close proximity to the actual values, nevertheless
it is an established fact that, at one side on account of better health facilities, less mortality
rate, encouraging fertility rate, long life expectancy and increasing tendency of polygamy in
selected regions of the world due to lack of knowledge population is increasing
considerably, but on the other hand concrete measures are being taken to keep the
population in the affordable controlled numbers through initiating special programs.
The dichotomy has to be smashed abruptly and both tactical and strategic planning has
to be launched world wide through dialogue processes other wise the population
explosion may jeopardize all adroit and justifiable strenuous efforts to cape the inordinate
growth rate and the resources, what ever we kept augmenting will be diminished within
shorter time period. Researches show that per capita energy consumption changes from
country to country with the passage of time there will be a quantum leap in every sector and
sub sector of energy consumption. Socio-economic development and industrialization may
also propel the energy demand further. Energy intensity of specific target countries depicts
the scenario as under:


The energy intensity is the ratio of primary energy consumption over gross domestic
product measured in constant US $ at purchasing power parities, i.e. mathematically given
by:





Page 11 of 42



WORLD POPULATION and Net Energy Demand


Year No Calculated by Actual Growth Projected Energy Net Energy

Von
Foerster's

Rate Population Demand @ Demand growth@
Formula

% Pn=(1+r)^tn*po 0.302KW/Capita/day
2.2% per annum
(MW)
(Exponential growth) i.e. 0.000302MW/capita/day En=(1+r)^t*Eo
1804 1 847777593 100000000 100000000 30200 30864
1900 96 1480906640 120000000 0.167 140802550.4 42522 343482
1927 27 1876775527 1600000000 0.925 2051570525 619574 1114981
1950 23 2431944831 2000000000 0.200 2094052622 632404 1043194
1955 5 2599386521 2550000000 0.216 2577618884 778441 867921
1960 5 2791733905 2800000000 0.089 2812522341 849382 947016
1965 5 3015002774 3000000000 0.067 3010013342 909024 1013514
1970 5 3277318390 3300000000 0.091 3315027298 1001138 1116217
1975 5 3589929712 3700000000 0.108 3720043290 1123453 1252591
1980 5 3968871399 4000000000 0.075 4015022517 1212537 1351915
1985 5 4437814039 4500000000 0.111 4525055617 1366567 1523650
1989 4 4901631733 4700000000 0.043 4708005108 1421818 1551127
1990 1 5033228241 4850000000 0.031 4851500000 1465153 1497386
1995 5 5814398427 5300000000 0.085 5322538240 1607407 1792174
1999 4 6639990102 5700000000 0.070 5716016850 1726237 1883233
2000 1 6884589358 6200000000 0.081 6205000000 1873910 1915136
2006 1 6545884440 0.053 6549343284 1977902 2021416
2007 1 6623571960 0.012 6624348835 2000553 2044566
2008 1 6700765880 0.012 6701537819 2023864 2068389
2009 1 6776917470 0.011 6777678986 2046859 2091890
2010 1 6853019410 0.011 6853780429 2069842 2115378
2011 1 7000000000 0.021 7001469806 2114444 2160962

Table: 1 World Energy Demand Calculations

Country
Electricity
consumption
(MWH/yr)
Year
of
Data
Source Population As of
Average power per
capita (watts per
person)
World 17,109,665,000 2007 EIA[3] 6,464,750,000 2005 301.92



Electric power per capita [ in watt ] = Total population electricity consumption [ in MWH/yr ]
*1,000,000/(365.2524)/population.
Electric power per capita [ in watt ] = Total population electricity consumption [ in MWH/yr ]
*114.077116 /population.
1 MWH/yr = 1,000,000 Wh/(365.25*24)h = 114.077116 Watt








Page 12 of 42





Fig: 5, World Net Energy Demand (1804-2050)


Regional energy use (kWh/capita & TWh) and growth 1990-2008 (%)

Region
kWh/capita Population (million) Energy use (1,000 TWh)
1990 2008 Growth 1990 2008 Growth 1990 2008 Growth
USA 89,021 87,216 - 2 % 250 305 22 % 22.3 26.6 20 %
EU-27 40,240 40,821 1 % 473 499 5 % 19 20.4 7 %
Middle East 19,422 34,774 79 % 132 199 51 % 2.6 6.9 170 %
China 8,839 18,608 111 % 1,141 1,333 17 % 10.1 24.8 146 %
Latin America 11,281 14,421 28 % 355 462 30 % 4 6.7 66 %
Africa 7,094 7,792 10 % 634 984 55 % 4.5 7.7 70 %
India 4,419 6,280 42 % 850 1,140 34 % 3.8 7.2 91 %
Others* 25,217 23,871 nd 1,430 1,766 23 % 36.1 42.2 17 %
The World 19,422 21,283 10 % 5,265 6,688 27 % 102.3 142.3 39 %
Source: IEA/OECD, Population OECD/World Bank
Table: 2





y = 910931ln(x) - 405335
R = 0.9087
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
1
8
0
4
1
9
5
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
7
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
2
2
0
3
5
2
0
3
8
2
0
4
1
2
0
4
4
2
0
4
7
2
0
5
0
World Net Energy Demand (MW)
Page 13 of 42


Extrapolation of Results
2008 US Electricity Generation by Source & Weighted Average Cost per kWh
Energy Source % of Total Cost per kWh Weighted Average Cost
Nuclear 19.7% $0.04 $0.008
Hydro 6.1% $0.03 $0.002
Coal 48.7% $0.04 $0.022
Natural Gas 21.4% $0.10 $0.022
Petroleum 1.1% $0.10 $0.001
Other Renewables 3.0% $0.15 $0.005
100% $0.059
Table: 3, US Electricity by source and weightage average cost per kwh

Taking these results further we calculate a weighted average energy cost per kWh
for the US of $0.059. If we were to double the amount of nuclear energy by replacing
existing coal capacity, the weighted average energy cost per kWh would be $0.058,
a cost reduction of 1.7%. Tripling nuclear would yield $0.057, or a 3.5% cost
reduction. This does not take into account the intangible costs we would save by
reducing coal emissions by about 40% (80% if nuclear was tripled). There would also
be 40% less coal required (80% if nuclear was tripled), thereby reducing the impact
of coal

Projected US Electricity Generation by Source & Weighted Average Cost per kWh by
Doubling Nuclear Energy
Energy Source % of Total Cost per kWh Weighted Average Cost
Nuclear 39.4% $0.04 $0.015
Hydro 6.1% $0.03 $0.002
Coal 29.0% $0.04 $0.013
Natural Gas 21.4% $0.10 $0.022
Petroleum 1.1% $0.10 $0.001
Other Renewables 3.0% $0.15 $0.005
100% $0.058 [change of -1.7%]
Table:4, Projected US Electricity generation by source

Unfortunately, the only way to reduce the per kWh energy cost in the US further is by
replacing peak production currently supplied by petroleum and natural gas plants.
These plants satisfy peak demand because they can be fired up and powered down
quickly. As with most things in life, there is a high cost associated with this
convenience. Since nuclear energy is typically a base load generation source, there
are not many ways to reduce peak demand usage of natural gas with nuclear energy
capacity.

The conservative primary energy per capita demand of 200watt= 0.0002 MW per
capita has been used in the initial estimate followed by a flate 2.2% per annum surge
of demand. International Energy outlook (IEO), 2011 indicates that world energy
Page 14 of 42

consumptioby increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increase
attributed to China and India.


Table 5: The minimum and Maximum Values used in the calculation of the 2010 Energy
Development Index.

Indicator Minimum Value (Country)
Maximum
Value (Country)



(toe) (kwh) (toe) (kwh)
per capita commercial energy
consumption 0.03 348.90 2.88 33494.40

(Eritrea)

(Libya)

Per capita electricity consumption
in residential sector
0.001 11.63 0.08 930.40
(Haiti)

(Venezuela)

Share of modern fuels in total
residential
Sector energy use (%)
1.40% 1.40% 100% 100%
(Ethiopia)

(Yemen,
Lebanon,
Syria, Iran)

Share of population with access
to electricity (%)
11.10% 11.10% 100% 100%
(Democratic
Republic of
Congo)

(Jordan,
Lebanon)

S.C Bhattacharyya, (Energy Economics,P:135), writes that share of non OECD
economies in the global energy demand will cross that of the OECD by 2030, it will
account for 63% of the global energy demand followed by Asian developing
countries with a share of 38% of the global energy demand.


2. Energy Demand Management
Energy system primarily comprises of both supply-side and demand side
activities. During early days when the energy price s were cheap, the focus
was on the supply-side that reversed considerably when the oil prices
increased and governments have to work at the entire gamut of the problem.
The demand side management,(DSM), consists of:
o Load Management: changing the size or timings of the demand,
o Energy conservation: technical efficiency improvement,
o Fuel substitution: changing oil by gas or biomass,
o Load building: loading building implies developing load for strategic
purposes which could help manage the system better.

3. Economic Analysis of Energy Investment.
Projects pertaining commercial energy share following features:
Capital intensiveness
Asset specifity
Long-life of assets
Long gestation period.
The unit energy cost can be calculated by using the following formula:

Page 15 of 42




)
`

=
)
`

=
year per consumed usually Energy
Cost annual Total
kwh Say
Cost Eenergy Unit
, , , ,
, ,
/ ,$
, ,


)
`

+ +
=
Pf P
M O C
ins
an an
* 8760 *
) (

Where,
(

=
=
=
= =
ins
ins
an
P
Output Energy Annual
Pf
f actor Plant Pf
f actor plant and kw in capacity installed P
in capital invested f or repayment annual A C
* 8760
, ,
, ,
, , , , , ,
,$, , , , , ,

We can easily calculate the unit cost of a power plant having capacity of say 20kw,
plant cost of $40,000, expected life of 10 years, O&M cost at the rate of 3% of capital
cost, real discount rate of 10 per annum and plant factor of 25%.
I. Annunitized capital cost (C
an
) =
)
`

+
+
=
1 ) 1 (
) 1 (
n
n
an
r
r r
PV C =
)
`

+
+
=
1 ) 1 (
) 1 (
n
n
an
r
r r
C C =
6510 $
1 ) 1 . 0 1 (
) 1 . 0 1 ( 1 . 0
40000
10
10
=
)
`

+
+

II. Total amount cost = C
an
+ Annual O&M Cost. = 6510 + 0.03+40000
i. (3% of capital cost)
= 6510+1200 = $ 7710.
III. Unit Cost =
)
`

=
Pf Capacity Installed
Cost Annual Total
Cost Unit
* 8760 ,* ,
, ,
,


Unit cost = kwh / 176 . 0 $
25 . 0 * 8760 * 20
7710
=
)
`

Unit cost = 0.176 /( 60*60) = $/0.0000489KW as KWH = KW *H

)
`

=
perkwh ice
used hours Wattage
Energy of Cost
, Pr * 1000
, *
, , =
)
`

=
perKWH ice
KWH
, Pr

If the device does not list wattage but it does list amperes then we can multiply the
amps times the voltage to get the watts, e.g.
2.5 amps * 240 volts = 600watts.

Table: Capital costs and other relevant information for electricity generations.
Source: AEOutlook 2010.

Prof. Dr. M.J. Hall, has mentioned that Gordon (1983) developed a general equation
for the total cost, C (10
6
US$ at 1982 prices), in terms of installed capacity, M,
(MW), and the available head, H (m):
Page 16 of 42


82 . 0
)
`

=
H
M
K C
Where, K = is a constant the recommended values of which are given as under:

Condition Minimum Average Maximum
Scheme with H< 350m 9.90 16.50 23.00
Scheme with H>350m 17.00 28.30 40.00
Small hydro H< 10MW 6.40 10.70 15.00

Table 6: level of electrification in various regions
Region Population
without
electricity
(Million)
Electrification rate (%)
Overall Urban Rural
North Africa 2 98.90 99.60 98.20
Sub Saharan Africa 587 28.50 57.50 11.90
Africa 589 40.00 66.80 22.70
China and East Asia 195 90.20 96.20 85.50
South Asia 614 60.20 88.40 48.40
Developing Asia 809 77.20 93.50 67.20
Middle East 21 89.10 98.50 70.60
Developing countries 1453 72.00 90.00 58.40
Transition economies and OECD 3 99.80 100.0 99.50
Global Total 1456 78.2 93.40 63.20
Source: WEO (2009),


4. Pakistan Energy Demand Forecasting and Supply-Demand Gap.
Throwing a birds eye view on the world population statistics it can be construed that
Pakistan is at serial number sixth in the more populous countries of the world where
as its population is growing at the rate of 1.57% per annum. The population growth
trend is depicted as under:

Page 17 of 42


Fig: 6, Pakistan Population growth trend (1947-2050)


When we see the list of richer countries of the world then Pakistan falls in the list of
low income countries, and from the prospect of energy consumption its per capita
daily consumption is merely 438.261KWH/capita per day. When Pakistan came into
being in 1947, its population was just 315million that has now grew up to 187.343
million in sixty four years that is almost 83.19% bulging out, and by the end of 2100
the projected population will be 748.407 million, despite the strenuous efforts of
subsequent governments as the population growth rate has lowered from
2.17%(2000) to 1.57% (2011).


Fig: 7, Pakistan Population growth rate (2000-2011)

Statistics shows that the birth rate 32.11.1000 population (2000) has decreased to
24.81/1000 population (2011) and death rate per 1000 population has also
decreased as 9.51/1000 population (2000) to 6.92/1000 population (2011). Due to
better health cover the life expectancy at birth has increased for 61.07years (2000)
to65.63 years (2011). The GDP growth rate is also encouraging as it is moving up
from 3.10% (2000) to 4.8% (2011), with a positive trend of GDP per capita (PPP),
US$2000(2000) by US$2500(2011).

y = 2E+07x
0.6717

R = 0.9636
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
1
9
4
7
1
9
6
1
1
9
7
2
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
7
2
0
3
0
2
0
3
3
2
0
3
6
2
0
3
9
2
0
4
2
2
0
4
5
2
0
4
8
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

i
n

N
o
s
.

Population Trend of Pakistan (1947-2050)
2.17
2.11
2.06
2.01 1.98
2.03
2.09
1.83
2
1.95
1.59 1.57
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Population Growth Rate (%)
Page 18 of 42


Fig: 8, GDP Growth Rate (1999-2010).

Researches show that if Pakistan is to register itself in the rank of countries of
economically moderate stable countries then its economic growth should be 6.5 to
7.0 % during the next 15 years, i.e. when the projected population will be 255736063
in 2030. The total electricity consumption during 2005 was 67.05 billion kWh, and
during 2008 it was 68.55billion kWh. The energy supply mix indicates that natural
gas (48.5%), is the top most rank followed by oil(30%), then comes hydro electricity
(12.6%) and coal (7.3%), where as supply of LPG, nuclear etc. is juts 1.50% of the
total mass cake.

Fig: 9, Energy Supply Mix (2007) Fig: 10, Energy Consumption Mix (2007)

Pakistan has an identified potential of 60,000 MW hydro electricity and the coal
reserves of Pakistan is estimated to 183 billion tons while the present percentage
rate of excavation is only 3.20 billion tons annually. Mand, Mubarak writes, These
energy deposits can generate 50,000MW, of electricity and 100million barrels of oil
every year for the next 500years. This energy reserve is 100 times the energy
reserve in the Middle East, Iran, and Iraq combined. As per EIA, International
Energy Statistics Pakistan domestic gas production is 1400(billion cubic feet)(2010)
and consumption of the same quantity, where as the proved reserve is 30 billion
cubic feet, and total production of oil is 58.36 (thousand barrels per day) (2009), and
net consumption of 397 (thousands barrels per day) (2009), and we have to import
338.64 (thousand barrels per day), where as the proved reserve is only 0.34 (billion
barrels), where as a big chunk of state exchequer is consumed in importing oil and
gas.

Pakistan is one of the sixth populous countries of the world as depicted below.
3.1
4.8
3.3
5.5
6.1
6.6 6.6
5.3
2.7
4.3
4.8
0
5
10
1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP-Real Growth Rate (%)
Natural
Gas
48%
Oil
30%
Hydroe
clectrici
ty
13%
Coal
7%
LPG,Nu
clear et
c
2%
Pakistan Energy Supply Mix (2007)
44%
31%
14%
6% 5%
Pakistan Energy Consumption
Mix (2007)
Residential Industries
Agriculture Commercial
others
Page 19 of 42

As per IEA (2011), sources per capita energy consumption of Pakistan is on lower
side compared to other countries having enormous population as given below.

Fig: 11, Per Capita Energy Consumption
Pakistan in one of the richest resource countries in the world. But the entire
resources are either not being exploited or misused. The vision of water for food and
development is bleak. Projects of national interests have been capped due to inter
provincial politics. On the other side major water projects were initiated without
taking the affectees to confidence. Thorough planning and technical feasibility is
seldom carried out. Keeping the enormous water resources in the Gilgit-Baltistan of
Pakistan our development rate, power capacity, and food reserve conditions are
precarious. No dam after Tarbela (1965) has been constructed rather all precious
time has been spent on ifs and buts of construction of both Kalabagh and Basha-
Diamer dams. It is indeed injustice with the poor masses of the country. If we take
the world statistics 335 dams having height more than 60 meters and 35 number
dams of height more than 150m are under construction. In our neighboring countries,
China, India and Iran, the statistics is 103, 23 and 43 numbers respectively. The era
of persistent injection of poison of self-centrism and provincial prejudices into the
body politics of the unfortunate beloved country should be ceased now. Present
Government deserves all appreciations for breaking the ice and initiating raising of
Mangla dam by 30 feet, construction of Satpara dam, Gomal Zum dam, Mirani dam
and Diamer-Basha dam. The intention of the President on construct of both
Kalabagh and Basha dams is worth commendable and encouraging. Both the
opponents and proponents of Kalabagh dam are having cock fights. It is high time to
banish such melee, which is undermining the very fabric of our sovereignty. They are
twisting the hydrological statistics through fudging figures in their own favors for
political gains. It is not a political game but an issue of national importance, national
interest should be supreme, and our existence is with the nation. On the other hand
the think thank of the country should not only stuck to Kalabagh dam (KBD) but also
ferret out other potential sites for our water resource development.
Water is renewable resource unlike oil, gas etc. Why dont we use the peculiar
topography of Gilgit-Baltistan and utilize the God gifted resources in publico-
10381.2
1516
682.4
1008.7
1421.9
608.2
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
USA China India Indonessia Brazil Pakistan
USA China India Indonessia Brazil Pakistan Per Capita
Energy Consumption (in Watt as of 2011)
Page 20 of 42

probono. We have the technology of inflatable dam, which is widely in practice in
Japan, Britain, Germany, Netherlands, and Norway etc. This type of flood barrier is
used for controlling water levels during flood season. The flood barrier consisting of
three huge balloons made of rubberized cloth, which fills with water and air when
flood is imminent. The inflatable dam is maximum 60 minutes and that of drainage is
180 minutes where as thickness of fabric is 16mm with minimum tire span of 35
years and probability of its failure is 1:10,000 years. This is an advanced form of
design and construction. Despite that it is cost effective. Consultants can be
engaged on design and construct approach. We can construct such dams at
following reaches of the Indus:-
(1) Sermik, (2) Mehdiabad (3) Gole (4) Nar, (5) Kharfocho, (6) Katzara, (7) Tungus,
(8) Yulbo, (9) Bunji, (10) Rakhiot, (11) Basha, (12) Dasu,(13) pattan, (14) Thakot,(15)
Azadpattan, (16) Kohala etc. Where as is Gilgit-Baltistan this type of dam can be
constructed on several reaches of following tributaries of the mighty Indus: (a) River
Shyoke (b) River Shigar (c) River Hunza, (d) River Ghizer, (e) River Gilgit, (f) River
Astore. Furthermore northern parts of Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa and Kashmir may be
other potential sites.
The significant benefit of inflatable dam is that we can adjust the height as per our
own requirements. We can store flood water and required water is released
harnessing enormous amount of electricity and release the stored water during lean
period for irrigation purposes. This will help reduce sedimentation problem. Massive
floods are partly due to deforestation on the upper reaches of rivers; the leaf canopy
of forests can retain 10-20% of rainfall and divert 50% of water underground.
Province wise hydro electricity potential is as under:
S.No. Province Total Hydel Potential (MW)
1 Punjab 5895.82
2 Sind 178.05
3 Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa 186981.40
4 Baluchistan 0.50
5 Azad Kashmir 4635.80
6 Gilgit-Baltistan 60,000.00
Total 89408.27
Table:7, Province wise potential of hydroelectricity in Pakistan.

From power engineering we can easily calculate the wattage of any hydel station
when we have a specific hydraulic data of, 15meter head, 15cumecs, 80% plant
efficiency then,

) ( 8 . 9 KW QH P q =
Q KW Q P 6 . 117 ) ( , 8 . 0 * 15 * 8 . 9 = =
Total units generated for one hour=?
P 117.6 * 15 *24 = 42336 kWh
Power generated per day = KW 1764
24
42336
=
Power capacity of the country =95,000,000,000 KWH
Total Power capacity = (3958333.333)/3600= 1099.54 MW, during 2008.

Page 21 of 42

Energy Demand Calculations
Year Projected Firm Energy Deficit
Population Supply Demand (MW), @ as per
Pn=(1+r)^t*po (MW) (0.124)KW/Capita/day Residential

(Exponential
growth) (0.000124) MW/capita 124W/c/d
1947 31500000 30 3906.00 -3876.00
1951 33999000 30 4215.88 -4185.88
1959 42158760 119 5227.69 -5108.69
1961 42978000 119 5329.27 -5210.27
1964 46846020 636 5808.91 -5172.91
1970 55278304 1331 6854.51 -5523.51
1972 65321000 1331 8099.80 -6768.80
1980 80998040 3000 10043.76 -7043.76
1981 84254000 3000 10447.50 -7447.50
1990 107002580 7000 13268.32 -6268.32
1994 119842890 9100 14860.52 -5760.52
1998 130580000 14618 16191.92 -1573.92
2003 150167000 17974 18620.71 -646.71
2004 163682030 19522 20296.57 -774.57
2005 178413413 19580 22123.26 -2543.26
2006 172381870 19550 21375.35 -1825.35
2007 175495080 19850 21761.39 -1911.39
2008 178479390 19850 22131.44 -2281.44
2009 181457280 19850 22500.70 -2650.70
2010 184404790 19850 22866.19 -3016.19
2011 187342700 19850 23230.49 -3380.49
Table: 8, Pakistan Energy Demand Calculation.(1947-2011)











Page 22 of 42

Fig: 12, Pakistan Net Energy Demand (1947-2050)

From the figure above it can be construed that during 2011 Pakistan estimated
population is 187,34,2700, with 1.568% per annum and energy demand as per world
average @ 302watt per capita per day is 56577 MW, and against the firm supply is
19850MW only. GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP), is US$1050 and GNI
growth rate is 4.8%. As per research of Azam Amjad Chaudry, the elasticity of
demand for electricity with respect to per capita income is approximately 0.69, which
implies that a 1% increase in per capita income will lead to a 0.69% increase in the
demand for electricity. Keeping that rate in view the growth will be 7.25% of GDP
(US$ 1051) and energy demand will be 23230 MW, @ of
0.124KW/Capita/day,37468.54MW@0.200KW/Capita/day,56577.49MW,@0.302KW/
Capita/day,and 113941.83MW @ 0.6082KW/capita/day, for the calendar year 2011.







y = 28.649ln(x) + 1925.6
R = 0.9698
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Net Energy Demand of Pakistan (1947-2050) in MW
Page 23 of 42

Fig: 13, Pakistan Energy Demand based on discrete wattage (1947-2050)




Fig: 14, Pakistan Energy demand, on different wattage and firm supply (1947-2050)








0.00
50000.00
100000.00
150000.00
200000.00
250000.00
1
9
4
7
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
4
1
9
7
2
1
9
8
1
1
9
9
4
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
1
2
0
3
3
2
0
3
5
2
0
3
7
2
0
3
9
2
0
4
1
2
0
4
3
2
0
4
5
2
0
4
7
2
0
4
9
PAKISTAN ENERGY DEMAND SCENARION 2011
"124w/c/d, 200w/c//d,302w/c/d,608.2w/c/d"
0.00
20000.00
40000.00
60000.00
80000.00
100000.00
120000.00
1
9
4
7
1
9
5
1
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
4
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
2
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
1
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
M
W
s

Pakistan Energy Demand and Firm Supply Scenarion based on
discrete per capita energy consumptions (1947-2011)
Page 24 of 42


Fig: 15, Pakistan Firm Energy Supply (1947-2011)






Fig: 16, Pakistan Energy deficit scenario(1998-2011)







30 30 119 119
636
1331 1331
3000 3000
7000
9100
12800
19500
y = 220.95x
2
- 1754.6x + 2823.8
R = 0.9652
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1947 1951 1959 1961 1964 1970 1972 1980 1981 1990 1994 1998
A
x
i
s

T
i
t
l
e

Pakistan Firm Energy Supply (1947-1998)
-1573.92
-646.71
-774.57
-2543.26
-1825.35
-1911.39
-2281.44
-2650.70
-3016.19
-3380.49
-4000.00
-3500.00
-3000.00
-2500.00
-2000.00
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pakistan Energy Crisis Scenarion (1998-2011) in MWs based
on 124W/c/day
Page 25 of 42



Fig: 17, Pakistan Energy Supply & Demand scenario.(1997-2010)




Fig: 18, Energy Deficit scenario (1947-2050)









0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
P
o
w
e
r

i
n

M
W

Pakistan Energy Supply & Demand Scenario in MW
(1997-2010)
y = -9.1339x
2
+ 221.01x - 5288.2
R = 0.945
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
1
9
4
7
1
9
6
1
1
9
7
2
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
7
2
0
3
0
2
0
3
3
2
0
3
6
2
0
3
9
2
0
4
2
2
0
4
5
2
0
4
8
Energy Deficit (1947-2050) in MW based on the existing
19855 MW is not increased & per capita energy demand
growth is 0.69% of GNI that remains constt. @ 6% after 2011
i/c the line losses @ 17%
Page 26 of 42



Fig: 19, Energy Deficit (1947-2050)


5. Energy and Economic Growth
Pakistan being the sixth populous country of the world and having highest population
growth rate among SAARC countries more migration from village to cities and
increase stress on environment, recovery phase from the damages done by October,
2005, Kashmir earthquake, devastating Pakistan flood damages of August, 2010,
global economic recession, energy crisis and the war against terror had further
devastated the economy and stunted growth. There is a strong correlation between
GNP and energy consumption and economic growth. The energy-out put ratios for a
number country also show common trend that till gaining industrial maturity energy-
output ratios, goes up in the early stages of economic growth that declines slightly
and ultimately settles down considerably. The considerable increase may be
attributed to industrialization, urbanization and substitution of commercial for non
commercial fuel. Researches show that energy saving in the developing countries
can not be achieved unless GNP is proportionately reduced pari passu with energy
consumption. Jamal Nasir, writes in the daily Dawn, on Oct.10, 2011, that power
shortages are believed to be the biggest constraint to growth costing the economy 3-
4 percent current addition of 3000MW in national grid, and many new projects to
come on line next year.

6. Energy Crisis in Pakistan
Energy is life line for economic growth of any country. Energy is the propeller of
industrial and agricultural sector. The energy mix supply indicates that we use 43%
of energy generated by oil, 38% from natural gas and 10% HNP, and coal just 5%.
Despite having fourth largest coal reserve in the world we are still importing over 2.5
million tons on annual basis. The gas reserve is unfortunately depleting by dint of
that power shortage is expected to be little over 5250MW by 2010. Gas and energy
shortages are attributed to shutting down certain businesses. Pakistan current
(2011), capacity is around 21000MW of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of
y = 15.563x
2
- 1775.5x + 7950
R = 0.9299
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
1
9
4
7
1
9
6
1
1
9
7
2
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
7
2
0
3
0
2
0
3
3
2
0
3
6
2
0
3
9
2
0
4
2
2
0
4
5
2
0
4
8
Energy deficit (1947-2050) in MW based on the existing
firm supply of 19855 MW without line losses
Page 27 of 42

rest is thermal fueled primarily by gas and oil. Per capita energy consumption of
Pakistan is estimated 14million BTU (=
0.0003528ktoe=4103.4kwh=4.1034mwh=2.57544boe) to put it in perspective the world
average per capita energy use is about 65million BTU (=1.91*10
7
Wh = 19.055 MWH=
0.001638ktoe=11.9574boe=19051.50KWH= 6.86*10
10
Joul =6.86*10
10
Watt) and the American
average of 352 MBTU (= 0088704ktoe = 64.75392boe = 103171.2kwh).
Energy access in Pakistan is only 60% and 40% of the Pakistani households are
deprived from energy on the other hand renewable energy resources such as hydro,
wind, solar are perhaps underutilized and under developed today as Pakistan has
ample potential to exploit these resources.
The installed capacity (2011) is 21000MW, and the dependable capacity is
19855MW having thermal: hydel ration of 71:29, and break up is as under:

S.No Power producer Hydel (MW) Thermal(MW) Total (MW)
1 WAPDA 6461 4811 11272
2 KESC 1756 1756
3 IPPs 7510
4 PAEC 462 462
Total 6461 14539 21000
Table:9, Pakistan Company wise Energy Sources

Category wise installed capacity is as under:
S.No Category Capacity (MW) Percentage
1 Fossil Fuel 14077 67.03%
2 Hydro 6461 30.77%
3 Nuclear 462 2.20%
Total 21000 100
Table:10, Pakistan Energy Supply Mix

Hydel electricity generated by WAPDA varies between two extremes i.e. between
2414 MW and 6761MW depending upon the hydrological parameters during the time
series of hydrological year.

Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisis
Real problems
- Non construction of hydro-electric dam after Tarbela (1965)
- Rising up of oil prices after Arab Oil Embargo of 1973,
- Politicizing IPPs,
- Non exploiting existing coal and gas reserves
- Non exploration of potential hydel project sites
- Establishment of Nuclear Power Plant and NSG limitations,
- Import of energy and geo-political condition,
- Political cases against IPPs and RPPs.
- Import of gas from Iran and Tajikistan (CASA-100) and international politics.
- Political instability in the country.

Strategies to cope up electricity Crisis
- Establishment of IPPs(Imported Power Plants) after 1993,
Page 28 of 42

- Hiring Rental Power Plants (RPPs) including Power ship from Turkey- a costly
solution.
- Import of electricity from Tajikistan,
- Import of gas from Iran, Russia, and Turkmenistan
- Construction of Nuclear Power plant-Chashma-II,III & IV
- Speeding up construction of Thar Coal Power Plant
- Exploiting the hydel resources
- Reversing the thermal: hydel ratio.
- Hammering out political difference for construction of more dams.
- Finalization of negotiation for funding the identified and feasible hydel
projects.
- Capacity building of power companies to overcome line losses problems etc.
- The wattage of per capita energy consumption should be in line with the world
average that should be increased gradually.
7. GILGIT-BALTISTAN
Gilgit-Baltistan is one of the defacto provinces of Pakistan.
Gilgit-Baltistans population during 1980 census was 870346 and according to 1998
census it was 970347 after that no census has been carried out, hence keeping the
1.5504% growth rate the estimated population is 1883410. Over all area of Gilgit
Baltistan is 72971 sq.Km, which is equivalent to Khyber-Pakhtonkhwa province of
Pakistan and equivalent to Netherland,
Gilgit-Baltistan comprises of seven districts namely, Gilgit, Ghizer, Hunza/Nagar,
Diamer, Astore, Skardu and Ghanche. Gilgit-Baltistan is administratively divided into
two divisions which, in turn, are divided into seven districts, including the two
Baltistan districts of Skardu and Ghanche, and the five Gilgit districts of Gilgit,
Ghizer, Diamer, Astore, and Hunza-Nagar. The main political centers are the towns
of Gilgit and Skardu.
Division District Area
(km)
Population
(1998)
Population
(Estimated)
(2011)
Headquarters
Baltistan Ghanche 9,400 88,366 188341 Khaplu
Skardu 18,000 214,848 470852 Skardu
Gilgit Gilgit 19292 383,324 320180 Gilgit
Diamir 10,936 131,925 282511 Chilas
Ghizar 9,635 120,218 263677 Gahkuch
Astore 8,657 71,666 150673 Gorikot
Hunza-
Nagar
8000 207175 Aliabad,
Sikandarabad
Gilgit-
Baltistan
totals
7
districts
72,971 970,347 18,83,408 Gilgit
Table: 11, District wise Population of Gilgit-Baltistan.


Page 29 of 42


Fig: 20, Gilgit-Baltistan, showing Population, administrative set up and area


8. Energy Demand of Gilgit-Baltistan
Gilgit -Baltistan has not been connected to the national grid as yet, despite having
enormous potential of hydroelectricity. Keeping the natural terrain and water
resources in view, the renewable cheap energy can easily be harnessed, that can be
transmitted to national grid at reasonable costs. The run off water can not only
produce hydroelectricity but they can also prolong the aging life of Tarbela that is
perpetually being silted up. Construction of Kalabgh dam at the down stream of
Tarbela has also been an apple of discord among political parties and provinces that
is indeed a hard nut to crack. Sind and Baluchistan provinces have their reservations
over water right issues and the Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa has objections over water
logging and inundation of patches of its fertile fields, in deed the Mannings
roughness factor always pinches the apprehensions of technical experts of the
province. Oil and gas reserves are depleting and the coal reserve of Thar is not
being utilized to its full capacity, sources of other renewable energies do not fulfill the
energy demand of the country so the only option left is to generate electricity through
harnessing the potential sites of Gilgit-Baltistan. The identified potential of Gilgit-
Bltistan is 60,000 MW. Federal Government has kicked off the physical work on
Diamer-Basha dam having power capacity of 4500MW, and construction of Bunji
dam having generation capacity of 7500MW is in the pipeline where as 12MW
Satpara dam project and 28MW Nalter projects have been completed. Construction
of all financially viable and technically feasible hydropower schemes of Gilgit-
Baltistan should be initiated to compensate the energy shortage of the country that is
syphoning off hundreds of thousands of dollar in importing furnace oil etc.
19292
14041
11772
8000
5400
21124
6000
320180
282511
263677
207175
150673
470852
188341
1
2 2
1 1
4
3
1
3
4
2 2
5
4
8 8 8
6 6
30
14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
Gilgit Diamer Ghizer Hunza/Nagar Astore Skardu Ganche
Gilgit-Baltistan at a glance
Area Population Sub Div Tehsil U.Council M.C.
Page 30 of 42


Gilgit-Baltistan has the water reservoir having identified potential sites of producing
60, 000 MW of hydroelectricity due to glacial deposits, run off of Indus and its
tributaries. Out of 60,000 MW, 40,000MW can be generated through runoff river
water while remaining 20, 000MW can be constructed on tributaries of Shyok, Indus,
Shigar, Hunza,Ghizer and Astore rivers. Due to financial constraints and non
establishment of heavy industries the per capita energy consumption is on lower side
that is depicted in the following histogram.
Installed Capacity Per Capita (kW per thousand)

Fig: 21, GB per capita energy consumption& Comparison with National Standard.

Table: 12, Hydropower Projects in GILGIT-BALTISTAN (2011)
Project Location Capacity
(MW)
Completion
date
Under 50 MW:
In operation 111.732
Under construction 31.5
Projects in ADP 33.8
Planned (2016) 266.3
Total MW 443.332

National Major Projects:
Skardu Shigar
River/Skardu
4,000 -
Diamer/Bhasha Indus/Diamer 4,500 2019-2020
Bunji Indus/Gilgit 7,300 2019-2020
Yulbo Indus/Skardu 3,000 -
Rakhiot Indus river 670 -
Tangus Indus river 625 -
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
Gilgit
Skardu
Ghizer
Diamer
Astore
Ghanche
GB
Pakistan
Installed capacity per capita
(kW per thousand)
Installed capacity per capita (kW per thousand)
Page 31 of 42

Altit Hunza river 250 -
Dojian
Tangus
Ghowari
Harpo
Basho
Shagharthang
Hanzel
Salling/Yougo
Tormik

Astore
Indus River
Shyoke River
Indus River
Basho
Kachora
Ghizer River
Shyok River
Indus River
35
3500
30
30
28
30
4000
4000
2457
-
Total National
Projects (MW)
40,000
Table: 13, GB, identified hydroelectricity sites and capacities.



Fig:22, GB, District wise firm energy

As hydel energy is dependent on stream flow, the percentile discharges fluctuates
during its time series, so the plant capacity is badly affected during lean period that
has to be supplemented by thermal energy. Total installed capacity of Gilgit-Baltistan
is 117.85 MW out of which 14.32 MW is thermal energy.



0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
Gilgit H/Nagar Ghizer Diamer Astore Skardu Ghanche
Commercial Energy Capacity of Gilgit-Baltistan
(Hydel/Thermal/Total) in MW
Page 32 of 42


Fig: 23, Region wise installed capacity of energy

Gilgit region has the total capacity of 65.84MW, Diamer 21.16MW, where as Baltistan
region has gross capacity of 30.85MW.

9. Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand Forecast
Year



Projected
Population
Pn=(1+r)^t*po
(Exponential
growth)
Energy
Demand (MW), @
(0.124)KW/Capita/day
(0.000124) MW/capita
Energy
Demand (MW), @
(0.2)KW/Capita/day
(0.0002) MW/capita
Deficit
as per
Residential
124W/c/d
1980 870346 107.92 174.07 -97.92
1981 898571 111.42 179.71 -101.42
1982 927712 115.04 185.54 -105.04
1983 957798 118.77 191.56 -108.77
1984 988859 122.62 197.77 -112.62
1985 1020928 126.60 204.19 -86.60
1986 1054036 130.70 210.81 -90.70
1987 1088219 134.94 217.64 -94.94
1988 1123510 139.32 224.70 -99.32
1989 1159945 143.83 231.99 -103.83
1990 1197562 148.50 239.51 -108.50
1991 1236399 153.31 247.28 -113.31
1992 1276496 158.29 255.30 -118.29
1993 1317892 163.42 263.58 -123.42
1994 1360632 168.72 272.13 -128.72
1995 1404757 174.19 280.95 -134.19
1996 1450313 179.84 290.06 -105.84
1997 1497347 185.67 299.47 -111.67
1998 1545906 191.69 309.18 -117.69
1999 1569567 194.63 313.91 -120.63
2000 1593591 197.61 318.72 -123.61
2001 1617983 200.63 323.60 -126.63
2002 1642748 203.70 328.55 -129.70
58.32
18.74
26.47
7.52
2.42
4.38
65.84
21.16
30.85
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Gilgit Region Diamer Region Baltistan Region
Region Wise Energy Capacity of Gilgit-Baltistan
(Hydel/Thermal/Total)(MW)
Page 33 of 42

2003 1667891 206.82 333.58 -132.82
2004 1693420 209.98 338.68 -135.98
2005 1719340 213.20 343.87 -139.20
2006 1745656 216.46 349.13 -142.46
2007 1772375 219.77 354.47 -145.77
2008 1799503 223.14 359.90 -149.14
2009 1827046 226.55 365.41 -152.55
2010 1855011 230.02 371.00 -156.02
2011 1883404 233.54 376.68 -159.54
Table: 14, Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand and Deficit Calculation (1980-2011)


Fig: 24, GB Energy supply and demand scenario









0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
6
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
6
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
8
2
0
3
2
2
0
3
6
2
0
4
0
2
0
4
4
2
0
4
8
M
W
s

Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand Scenario
@ 124W,200W,302W,6082W/c/d Vs Firms Supply
(1980-2050)
Page 34 of 42


Fig: 25, GB Demand Supply histogram


As 95% of energy consumers are residential utilization so the per capita energy
consumption has been taken as 124Watt/capita/day. Keeping that unprecedented
wattage the deficiency during 2011 is 159.54MW.





Fig: 26, Blue print of energy in GB based on 200W/C/D










0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gilgit-Baltistan Energy Demand Vs Firm Supply
@ 124 Watt /capita/day (1998-2011)
43.54
13.64
8.66
14.36
6.8
22.95
7.9
72.85
60.06
55.37
98.68
39.65
34.70
43.69
-29.31
-46.42 -46.71
-84.32
-32.85
-11.75
-35.79
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Gilgit H/Nagar Ghizer Diamer Astore Skardu Ghanche
Chemistry of Distt wise Energy
(Firm Supply)/(Losses)/(Peak demand)/(Defiict) MW As Of
2011 based on 200Watt per capita per day.
Page 35 of 42


Fig: 27, Blue print of energy in GB based on 302W/C/D
:




Fig: 28, Blue print of energy in GB based on 608W/C/D


10. Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisis
Real problems
- Financial constraints in construction of hydro power plants,
- Lack of capacity of departments
- Non linkage with the national grid line,
- Rising of oil prices
- Non existence of gas lines
- Geographical location
- Geo-political limitations.
- Non industrialization,
- Meager potential of energy consumption.
- Less revenue receipt due to lower load factor for repayment to the IPPs.
43.54
13.64
8.66
14.36
6.8
22.95
7.90
98.94
87.30
81.48
145.49
58.20
46.56
64.02
-55.40
-73.66 -72.82
-131.13
-51.40
-23.61
-56.12
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Gilgit H/Nagar Ghizer Diamer Astore Skardu Ghanche
Blue Print of Distt wise Energy as per World
Average
(Firm Supply)/(Losses)/(Peak demand)/(Defiict) MW As Of 2011
based on 302Watt per capita per day.
43.54
13.64 8.66 14.36 6.8
22.95
7.90
206.42
177.92
165.37
295.11
118.23
97.56
130.12
-162.88 -164.28 -156.71
-280.75
-111.43
-74.61
-122.22
-400
-200
0
200
400
Gilgit H/Nagar Ghizer Diamer Astore Skardu Ghanche
Blue Print of Distt wise Energy As Per Pakistan
Average
(Firm Supply)/(Losses)/(Peak demand)/(Defiict) MW As Of 2011
based on 608.2Watt per capita per day.
Page 36 of 42

- Affordable energy cost for the consumers in case of power purchased from
IPPs.
- GOP may not permit any subsidy under present policy.
- Non interconnection of GB with the national grid.
- NEPRAs role in GB.
- Capacity building of the power utility.
- Tendency of high electricity pilferage.

Strategies to cope up electricity Crisis
- An integrated energy policy of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) should be formulated,

- Capacity building of Gilgit-Baltistan Water and Power department to
investigate new potential sites, construction of hydel stations and to overcome
line losses problems etc.

- GB should be linked up with the national grid,

- GB government should initiate dialogue with other provinces for selling out the
surplus energy, as now the energy is a provincial subject.

- Construction of peak hour storage tanks

- Pumping of water back in to the storage tank during peak hour

- Enforcement of efficient energy usage laws

- Construction of energy efficient houses and offices

- Conducting feasibility study for ferreting out the ways and means of
constructing inflatable dams on all rivers of Gilgit-Baltistan,

- Conducting feasibility study to exploit renewable energy resources like wind,
solar, geothermal, biomass etc.

- Establishment of regional grid in Gilgit-Baltistan to interlink all the power
potential sites.

- Investment in the field of Captive Power & Energy Banking. Industry and
hydro power development may take place simultaneously.

- The main purpose to club hydro power development with other industries
would enable the private investors to offer affordable tariff.

- Power Projects through IPPs would be viable
for mega projects on Indus River through PPIB/WAPDA.
- Commencement of physical work on high voltage transmission line by
WAPDA for interconnection to the national grid may take place
simultaneously,

Page 37 of 42

- Project through IPPs can be developed simultaneously at the identified sites
near Bunji and Diamar-Basha projects to supply power to WAPDA during
implementation of these vital projects.

- Rigorous planning should be made to provide energy wattage equivalent to
world average i.e. 302watt /capita/day for establishment of industries in Gilgit-
Baltistan.

- In order to optimize the capacities of all existing hydroelectric power stations
penstock pipes should be laid in series instead of parallel.

- During summer time there is possibility of constructing hydel station at each
and every stream of Gilgit-Baltistan, at nominal construction cost of
US$2.0million/MW, and an average production cost of 3-4 US cent per unit
(kwh), that should be exploited and other stations having muddy water
containing silt and sand particles that are detrimental for safety of turbine
runner, shaft, etc. should be closed.

11. Conclusion
Consumption of energy indicates the economic growth. Population is growing
and energy generation rate is lagging behind the population growth rate,
consequently there are resource constraints. Existing both conventional and
non conventional energy resources should be exploited and dependency of
thermal energy generation should be minimized. Pakistan despite having
enormous hydel potential in Gilgit-Baltistan(60,000MW) and Khyber-
Pakhtonkhowa(18698MW), and coal reserves (50,000 MW), located in
Tharparkar Sind, is still dependent on costly and environmentally unfeasible
and economically un viable, less lucrative for investment ,furnace oil, that
defective planning has to be streamlined while formulating energy policy.
Energy shortage is on one side causing unrest and even creating law and
order situation and on the other side is badly affecting the economic growth.
The capital cost for construction of hydro electricity is 2.3-2.5US$/kwh, and
cost of power generation is nominal-3-4US cents/kwh, capital cost of gas is 3-
5 US$/kwh and generation cost is 7-8US$/kwh, capital cost of furnace oil is
1.5-1.6US$/kwh but the cost to be incurred on power generation is 9-10
US$/kwh, but coal gasified power capital cost is only 1US$/kwh and power
production cost will be 2-3 US cents/kwh.


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