LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation Using A Fix When Broken Strateg

For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
Version 1.0 January 15, 2007 Copyright 2007 by Barringer & Associates, Inc.

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file, is acceptance of notices show below.
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Software By:
H. Paul Barringer, P.E.

Barringer & Associates, Inc.

P.O. Box 3985, Humble, TX 77347
Phone: 281-852-6810
FAX: 281
e-mail: hpaul@barringer1.com
http://www.barringer1.com

LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation For MonteCarloSimulationSTM

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This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 2003 and above. The simulation macros may not work in lower revision
Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc.

Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features. Barri
Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is furnished for demonstrati
purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the original source

When Broken Strategy

ger & Associates, Inc.

ton, or moving to other spreadsheets in this

notices show below.

sociates, Inc.
77347-3985 USA
FAX: 281-852-3749

e of this block). Do not delete this sheet,

macros may not work in lower revisions.

nding by Barringer & Associates, Inc.

s and change of features. Barringer &

software is furnished for demonstration
ssociates, Inc. as the original source of the

Set up for Monte Carlo simulation

FIX WHEN BROKEN REPAIR STRATEGY

<--You can change items in yellow

Input Data For Simulation

Item
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
20
12%
38%

Cost Element Name

(Labor + Matl's + Expense)
Electricity, $/yr
Maint. PMs, $/yr
Operations PMs, $/yr
Waste Cost, $/yr
Seals
Shaft
Impeller
Housing
Pump Bearing
Coupling
Motor Rotor
Motor Stator
Motor Bearings

$
h,

years

30,000.00 <--Capital $'s

Cost $/failure
or $/year

$ 16,500.00
$
600.00
$
350.00
$
100.00
4.00
1.40
$
3,800.00
18.00
1.20
$
1,400.00
12.00
2.50
$
2,800.00
18.00
1.30
$
5,400.00
4.00
1.30
$
1,500.00
8.00
2.00
$
2,000.00
25.00
1.00
$
3,000.00
25.00
1.00
$
8,000.00
20.00
1.30
$
1,500.00
0
0.00
0.00
$
<--Project life (<= 35 years)
Iterations to complete-->
<--Discount rate (usually ~12%) Number of iterations accumulated-->
<--Tax rate (usually ~38%)
Net Present Value-->
For fixed costs per
year items.

Downtime
Hours

No downtime hours or cost

for annual cost elements
8
10
8
14
8
8
48
240
8
0
1,000,000
1,000,000
-$118,512

Annual failure rate-->

Annual downtime hours-->
Annual Availability-->
Annual Reliability-->

Annualized Costs for Life Cycle Cost S=

Life Cycle Cost Worksheet

Discount Rate (%)-->
12%
-$118,512

Capital Costs:

Net Present Values Based on Monte Carlo Simulations

Capital Acquisition Costs

Acquisition Costs:
Program Management Costs
Engineering Design Costs
Engineering Data Costs
Spare Parts & Logistics Costs
Facilities & Construction Costs
Initial Training Costs
Technical Data Costs
Documentation Costs
Annual recuring costs
Other periodic costs
Disposal Costs

Savings:
Annual Savings (use positive #s)

NPV & IRR Calculations:

Capital equipment
Costs

Net Present Values B

Savings
Straight Line Depreciation
Profit Before Taxes
Tax Provision @ 38% Of Profit Before Tax
Net Income can be profit or loss
Add Back Depreciation
Cash Flow (Net Income + Depreciation)
Discount Factors @ 12%
Present Value
Net Present Value
-$118,512
Internal Rate Return
Year-->

items in yellow
Random Ages-To-Failure for 50 failures --> Look to the right for cum failures
$/hour Of
Downtime

0.83
9.77
9.14
14.94
6.96
5.83
1.90
29.69
52.37

1.59
63.35
8.33
10.82
0.27
2.63
17.31
135.53
57.73

5.24
23.30
19.55
2.07
5.55
9.15
8.74
31.68
12.75

0.06
14.00
7.71
22.11
1.64
2.46
1.60
20.54
17.12

o downtime hours or cost

or annual cost elements

Cumulative Failures
Recorded For Each Year
From Monte Carlo
Simulations

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0
2:51:56 PM
0:00:00

Annual failure rate-->

Annual downtime hours-->
Annual Availability-->
Annual Reliability-->

<--Start Time For Simulation

<--Time Remaining To Complete Simulation
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
1

140292
31120
2012
23240
161801
15908
40044
39969
20267
0
0.4747
15
99.83%
62.21%

216768
39897
9316
33914
223757
45292
39461
40048
29228
0
0.6777
17
99.81%
50.78%

246790
44014
19317
39213
247681
72803
39722
40051
34230
0
0.7838
17
99.80%
45.67%

261789
47124
31526
42846
259336
96198
40246
40070
37891
0
0.8570
18
99.79%
42.44%

Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years

Annualized Costs From Failures

Recorded For Each Year From
Monte Carlo Simulations

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Costs for Life Cycle Cost S= $

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
533.11
43.57
5.63
125.50
242.70
31.82
120.13
319.75
30.40
19,002.61

Project Life (35 yrs max)-->

<--Net Present Value

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
823.72
55.86
26.08
183.14
335.64
90.58
118.38
320.38
43.84
19,547.62

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
937.80
61.62
54.09
211.75
371.52
145.61
119.17
320.41
51.35
19,823.31

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
994.80
65.97
88.27
231.37
389.00
192.40
120.74
320.56
56.84
20,009.95

20

Tax Provision (%)-->

<--Internal Rate Of Return

$19,002.61

$19,547.62

$19,823.31

$20,009.95

$30,000.00

0
$30,000
$0

2
$19,003

3
$19,548

4
$19,823

$20,010

$0
$1,500
-$20,503
$7,791
-$12,712
$1,500
-$11,212
0.8929
-$10,010

$0
$0
$0
-$30,000
1.0000
-$30,000

$0
$1,500
-$21,048
$7,998
-$13,050
$1,500
-$11,550
0.7972
-$9,207

$0
$1,500
-$21,323
$8,103
-$13,220
$1,500
-$11,720
0.7118
-$8,342

$0
$1,500
-$21,510
$8,174
-$13,336
$1,500
-$11,836
0.6355
-$7,522

<--Requires at least one positive and one negative number in the present value row 32
0

0.71
29.03
24.47
35.66
4.13
4.61
2.73
3.92
8.24

3.53
52.92
11.10
15.93
1.10
7.59
25.75
26.01
0.49

0.87
7.61
6.40
42.46
5.44
3.01
2.57
8.87
27.91

1.52
14.25
16.24
38.96
8.38
5.54
30.68
1.67
29.78

0.82
3.11
10.01
9.28
1.43
5.73
8.80
24.80
11.82

269306
49202
45040
45594
265103
115002
39873
40095
39815
0
0.9090
19
99.79%
40.29%

272601
50615
57748
47816
267532
128436
39933
39691
41909
0
0.9463
19
99.79%
38.82%

274061
51323
69845
49799
269295
137464
40400
39808
43528
0
0.9755
19
99.78%
37.70%

274113
52759
80705
51385
270316
141929
40083
39743
45212
0
0.9962
19
99.78%
36.93%

275556
53923
89471
52627
270684
144815
39904
40109
46334
0
1.0134
19
99.78%
36.30%

5
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,023.36
68.88
126.11
246.21
397.65
230.00
119.62
320.76
59.72
20,142.33

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,035.88
70.86
161.69
258.21
401.30
256.87
119.80
317.53
62.86
20,235.01

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.43
71.85
195.57
268.91
403.94
274.93
121.20
318.46
65.29
20,311.59

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.63
73.86
225.97
277.48
405.47
283.86
120.25
317.94
67.82
20,364.29

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,047.11
75.49
250.52
284.19
406.03
289.63
119.71
320.87
69.50
20,413.05

38%

$20,142.33

$20,235.01

$20,311.59

$20,364.29

$20,413.05

6
$20,142

7
$20,235

8
$20,312

9
$20,364

$20,413

$0
$1,500
-$21,642
$8,224
-$13,418
$1,500
-$11,918
0.5674
-$6,763

$0
$1,500
-$21,735
$8,259
-$13,476
$1,500
-$11,976
0.5066
-$6,067

$0
$1,500
-$21,812
$8,288
-$13,523
$1,500
-$12,023
0.4523
-$5,439

$0
$1,500
-$21,864
$8,308
-$13,556
$1,500
-$12,056
0.4039
-$4,869

$0
$1,500
-$21,913
$8,327
-$13,586
$1,500
-$12,086
0.3606
-$4,358

10

11

12

13

14

3.12
11.44
6.44
2.11
9.29
6.51
21.39
3.20
14.67

3.47
33.83
8.94
5.41
8.36
8.19
43.25
2.89
13.93

1.68
28.31
7.78
27.80
7.74
2.75
10.26
25.10
39.88

4.10
26.17
9.15
2.49
2.50
2.94
28.69
14.88
7.48

4.33
22.54
16.54
20.06
0.56
14.31
69.71
2.30
1.62

10

11

12

13

14

274375
54024
96354
53776
270139
145500
39916
40028
47492
0
1.0216
19
99.78%
36.00%

274478
54895
99996
54545
271317
143552
40235
40118
48416
0
1.0276
20
99.78%
35.79%

273948
55623
101595
55145
271144
143024
39985
39794
48877
0
1.0291
20
99.78%
35.73%

275505
55799
101972
55843
270365
142188
40005
40166
49701
0
1.0315
20
99.78%
35.65%

274180
56234
100801
56587
270755
140568
39972
40113
50634
0
1.0298
20
99.78%
35.71%

10
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

11

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.63
75.63
269.79
290.39
405.21
291.00
119.75
320.22
71.24
20,435.86

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

12

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,043.02
76.85
279.99
294.54
406.98
287.10
120.71
320.94
72.62
20,452.75

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

13

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.00
77.87
284.47
297.78
406.72
286.05
119.96
318.35
73.32
20,455.51

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

14

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,046.92
78.12
285.52
301.55
405.55
284.38
120.02
321.33
74.55
20,467.93

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.88
78.73
282.24
305.57
406.13
281.14
119.92
320.90
75.95
20,462.46

10

11

12

13

14

$20,435.86

$20,452.75

$20,455.51

$20,467.93

$20,462.46

10

11

12

13

14

$20,436

$20,453

$20,456

$20,468

$20,462

$0
$1,500
-$21,936
$8,336
-$13,600
$1,500
-$12,100
0.3220
-$3,896

10

$0
$1,500
-$21,953
$8,342
-$13,611
$1,500
-$12,111
0.2875
-$3,482

11

$0
$1,500
-$21,956
$8,343
-$13,612
$1,500
-$12,112
0.2567
-$3,109

12

$0
$1,500
-$21,968
$8,348
-$13,620
$1,500
-$12,120
0.2292
-$2,778

13

$0
$1,500
-$21,962
$8,346
-$13,617
$1,500
-$12,117
0.2046
-$2,479

14

15

16

17

18

19

2.60
4.00
10.91
26.44
0.68
10.84
67.14
0.81
8.19

9.61
12.08
7.35
4.24
2.11
11.77
30.02
15.83
19.05

6.37
12.97
21.59
16.03
3.46
7.28
3.10
27.54
12.82

1.01
61.40
17.90
7.81
2.11
4.76
2.09
88.83
11.74

1.43
11.05
2.55
9.78
4.91
12.00
17.34
81.53
16.34

15

16

17

18

19

274063
56429
98578
56855
270786
140040
39860
39860
50998
0
1.0275
20
99.78%
35.79%

273552
56915
96434
58173
270197
140766
40017
40035
51071
0
1.0272
20
99.78%
35.80%

275292
57170
94937
57958
270852
140559
40059
40136
51918
0
1.0289
20
99.78%
35.74%

274025
57620
92715
58017
270401
140817
39992
39954
51768
0
1.0253
20
99.78%
35.87%

274062
57462
92217
58970
271908
141140
39697
39989
52211
0
1.0277
20
99.78%
35.78%

15
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.44
79.00
276.02
307.02
406.18
280.08
119.58
318.88
76.50
20,454.69

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

17

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,039.50
79.68
270.02
314.13
405.30
281.53
120.05
320.28
76.61
20,457.09

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

18

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,046.11
80.04
265.82
312.97
406.28
281.12
120.18
321.09
77.88
20,461.48

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

19

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.30
80.67
259.60
313.29
405.60
281.63
119.98
319.63
77.65
20,449.35

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.44
80.45
258.21
318.44
407.86
282.28
119.09
319.91
78.32
20,455.99

15

16

17

18

19

$20,454.69

$20,457.09

$20,461.48

$20,449.35

$20,455.99

15

16

17

18

19

$20,455

$20,457

$20,461

$20,449

$20,456

$0
$1,500
-$21,955
$8,343
-$13,612
$1,500
-$12,112
0.1827
-$2,213

15

$0
$1,500
-$21,957
$8,344
-$13,613
$1,500
-$12,113
0.1631
-$1,976

16

$0
$1,500
-$21,961
$8,345
-$13,616
$1,500
-$12,116
0.1456
-$1,765

17

$0
$1,500
-$21,949
$8,341
-$13,609
$1,500
-$12,109
0.1300
-$1,575

18

$0
$1,500
-$21,956
$8,343
-$13,613
$1,500
-$12,113
0.1161
-$1,406

19

20

21

22

23

24

5.75
22.45
3.97
6.29
7.08
7.53
33.80
4.26
2.72

3.14
1.91
8.52
7.20
3.89
10.88
4.53
63.51
5.93

0.32
15.99
13.99
11.48
2.42
6.14
8.22
0.61
8.60

0.60
7.93
6.72
19.53
2.00
4.05
7.96
19.77
3.27

9.11
4.32
16.16
41.52
1.51
7.26
7.54
9.74
15.95

20

21

22

23

24

275114
57285
92114
58829
270054
141028
39621
40354
52453
0
1.0269
20
99.78%
35.81%

273813
58175
92237
58761
270570
141229
40221
40149
52591
0
1.0277
20
99.78%
35.78%

274266
58256
92715
59287
270827
141065
39421
39930
52919
0
1.0287
20
99.78%
35.75%

274090
58489
93309
58795
271372
140340
39899
39875
53317
0
1.0295
20
99.78%
35.72%

274361
58795
93043
59416
270255
140772
40124
40221
52741
0
1.0297
20
99.78%
35.71%

20
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

21

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,045.43
80.20
257.92
317.68
405.08
282.06
118.86
322.83
78.68
20,458.74

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,040.49
81.45
258.26
317.31
405.86
282.46
120.66
321.19
78.89
20,456.56

22
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.21
81.56
259.60
320.15
406.24
282.13
118.26
319.44
79.38
20,458.97

23
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.54
81.88
261.27
317.49
407.06
280.68
119.70
319.00
79.98
20,458.60

24
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.57
82.31
260.52
320.85
405.38
281.54
120.37
321.77
79.11
20,464.43

20

21

22

23

24

$20,458.74

$20,456.56

$20,458.97

$20,458.60

$20,464.43

20

21

22

23

24

$20,459

$0
$1,500
-$21,959
$8,344
-$13,614
$1,500
-$12,114
0.1037
-$1,256

20

$0

21

$0

22

$0

23

$0

24

25

26

27

28

29

6.27
2.14
12.33
14.04
4.63
4.19
3.34
20.55
21.56

6.90
19.51
13.50
5.42
0.75
7.63
100.56
21.14
7.13

5.80
11.72
3.33
27.47
3.69
7.18
31.20
0.88
6.51

4.84
32.25
15.80
37.91
4.41
8.52
55.51
5.73
4.59

4.45
49.58
14.05
6.71
3.11
7.01
51.86
1.63
2.02

25

26

27

28

29

273679
58520
93370
59135
271292
140993
39883
40250
53761
0
1.0309
20
99.78%
35.67%

273658
58211
93526
60257
270197
140925
40077
40356
53567
0
1.0308
20
99.78%
35.67%

274997
58418
94346
59746
269201
141228
39913
40202
53888
0
1.0319
20
99.78%
35.63%

274548
58364
94242
59786
271101
140816
39992
40354
53858
0
1.0331
20
99.78%
35.59%

273915
58779
94615
60162
271170
140565
39882
40081
54146
0
1.0333
20
99.78%
35.58%

25
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,039.98
81.93
261.44
319.33
406.94
281.99
119.65
322.00
80.64
20,463.89

26
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,039.90
81.50
261.87
325.39
405.30
281.85
120.23
322.85
80.35
20,469.23

27
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,044.99
81.79
264.17
322.63
403.80
282.46
119.74
321.62
80.83
20,472.02

28
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,043.28
81.71
263.88
322.84
406.65
281.63
119.98
322.83
80.79
20,473.59

29
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,040.88
82.29
264.92
324.87
406.76
281.13
119.65
320.65
81.22
20,472.36

25

26

27

28

29

$20,463.89

$20,469.23

$20,472.02

$20,473.59

$20,472.36

25

26

27

28

29

$0

25

$0

26

$0

27

$0

28

$0

29

30

31

32

33

34

2.05
11.72
12.00
1.45
11.83
7.55
28.16
3.30
13.57

1.97
7.64
4.74
27.15
2.10
5.24
103.07
70.93
14.80

8.96
21.59
7.95
7.24
1.87
7.06
21.37
5.47
30.22

6.21
5.72
10.47
19.21
4.65
5.13
58.59
60.51
10.11

3.96
9.37
14.27
9.14
2.13
2.21
21.43
47.71
6.59

30

31

32

33

34

275069
59063
94399
60174
270330
140828
40266
39840
53476
0
1.0334
20
99.78%
35.58%

274234
58803
93949
60168
270989
141357
40095
39670
53704
0
1.0330
20
99.78%
35.59%

274194
58999
93884
59928
270494
140500
39763
40186
53723
0
1.0317
20
99.78%
35.64%

274022
59390
93759
59962
271207
141108
39909
40078
53627
0
1.0331
20
99.78%
35.59%

274226
58799
93698
59737
272360
141250
39997
40216
54335
0
1.0346
20
99.78%
35.54%

30
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,045.26
82.69
264.32
324.94
405.50
281.66
120.80
318.72
80.21
20,474.09

31
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.09
82.32
263.06
324.91
406.48
282.71
120.29
317.36
80.56
20,469.78

32
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.94
82.60
262.88
323.61
405.74
281.00
119.29
321.49
80.58
20,469.12

33
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.28
83.15
262.53
323.79
406.81
282.22
119.73
320.62
80.44
20,470.57

34
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.06
82.32
262.35
322.58
408.54
282.50
119.99
321.73
81.50
20,473.57

30

31

32

33

34

$20,474.09

$20,469.78

$20,469.12

$20,470.57

$20,473.57

30

31

32

33

34

$0

30

$0

31

$0

32

$0

33

$0

34

35

36

37

38

39

3.52
15.46
10.83
8.55
4.16
14.69
41.43
33.76
8.22

9.22
4.66
6.59
25.17
0.63
1.62
13.91
4.73
32.59

3.72
29.81
5.68
9.08
3.18
4.79
15.52
27.35
72.67

2.02
44.06
12.45
12.82
7.24
6.64
55.34
6.08
4.23

3.69
8.93
13.45
31.52
5.54
5.99
87.94
25.67
20.09

35

36

37

38

39

274288
58576
93855
59958
270980
141339
40092
40044
53898
0
1.0330
20
99.78%
35.59%

274544
58593
93314
60247
270248
140934
40120
39895
53906
0
1.0318
20
99.78%
35.64%

274604
58921
94131
59956
270578
141295
39994
40092
53927
0
1.0335
20
99.78%
35.58%

274156
58685
93750
59939
270432
140879
40063
39726
54082
0
1.0317
20
99.78%
35.64%

274039
59240
93786
60254
271182
141322
40150
40105
54516
0
1.0346
20
99.78%
35.54%

35
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.29
82.01
262.79
323.77
406.47
282.68
120.28
320.35
80.85
20,471.49

35

$20,471.49

35

36
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,043.27
82.03
261.28
325.33
405.37
281.87
120.36
319.16
80.86
20,469.53

37
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,043.50
82.49
263.57
323.76
405.87
282.59
119.98
320.74
80.89
20,473.38

38
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.79
82.16
262.50
323.67
405.65
281.76
120.19
317.81
81.12
20,466.65

39
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.35
82.94
262.60
325.37
406.77
282.64
120.45
320.84
81.77
20,474.74

$0

35

40

41

42

43

44

6.87
37.93
9.87
11.87
6.23
4.78
39.47
24.50
8.70

3.61
18.01
4.98
6.83
4.88
14.57
12.59
1.07
32.85

5.68
31.65
17.59
11.11
2.03
2.32
0.99
35.60
59.39

2.42
49.77
17.26
9.05
1.59
3.30
6.57
1.98
6.00

8.00
17.04
11.41
38.32
4.69
3.87
20.27
20.32
4.54

40

41

42

43

44

274276
58953
94240
60011
270157
140478
39886
40139
53946
0
1.0321
20
99.78%
35.63%

274652
59536
93934
59937
271149
141007
39962
40217
53867
0
1.0343
20
99.78%
35.55%

273988
58871
94244
59948
270992
141378
39906
39661
54158
0
1.0331
20
99.78%
35.59%

274403
59134
93731
60062
270375
141104
40099
39995
53678
0
1.0326
20
99.78%
35.61%

274265
58965
93364
60079
271195
140944
40150
39983
53869
0
1.0328
20
99.78%
35.60%

40
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.25
82.53
263.87
324.06
405.24
280.96
119.66
321.11
80.92
20,470.59

41
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,043.68
83.35
263.02
323.66
406.72
282.01
119.89
321.74
80.80
20,474.86

42
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.15
82.42
263.88
323.72
406.49
282.76
119.72
317.29
81.24
20,468.66

43
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.73
82.79
262.45
324.33
405.56
282.21
120.30
319.96
80.52
20,470.85

44
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,042.21
82.55
261.42
324.43
406.79
281.89
120.45
319.86
80.80
20,470.40

45

46

47

48

49

8.63
7.27
9.16
6.24
6.03
12.49
3.68
27.35
8.46

5.32
5.20
9.59
7.56
1.00
4.50
17.83
97.62
22.01

5.26
0.95
12.76
33.53
0.38
1.34
28.03
10.08
38.06

9.00
5.71
7.27
15.09
2.27
12.64
88.96
1.43
6.63

4.36
1.66
13.45
9.20
1.78
5.88
3.24
15.91
21.86

45

46

47

48

49

274996
59396
93436
60590
270683
141208
39814
40050
54067
0
1.0342
20
99.78%
35.55%

273604
59028
94295
60118
270388
140659
39773
39965
53674
0
1.0315
20
99.78%
35.65%

274637
59201
94087
60131
270330
141653
39837
40118
54410
0
1.0344
20
99.78%
35.54%

274114
58972
93746
59784
271591
141337
40067
39620
54203
0
1.0334
20
99.78%
35.58%

273836
59216
93866
60093
270416
141511
40051
39858
54093
0
1.0329
20
99.78%
35.60%

45
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,044.98
83.15
261.62
327.19
406.02
282.42
119.44
320.40
81.10
20,476.33

46
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,039.70
82.64
264.03
324.64
405.58
281.32
119.32
319.72
80.51
20,467.45

47
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,043.62
82.88
263.44
324.71
405.50
283.31
119.51
320.94
81.62
20,475.52

48
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.63
82.56
262.49
322.83
407.39
282.67
120.20
316.96
81.30
20,468.04

49
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,040.58
82.90
262.82
324.50
405.62
283.02
120.15
318.86
81.14
20,469.61

Cum Ages-To-Failure (years) --> Look to the right for failures put into correct time bucke
50

1.02
31.32
9.95
11.47
3.62
4.05
35.59
12.99
5.22

0.83
9.77
9.14
14.94
6.96
5.83
1.90
29.69
52.37

2.41
73.12
17.47
25.76
7.23
8.46
19.21
165.22
110.09

7.65
96.42
37.02
27.83
12.77
17.61
27.95
196.90
122.84

7.71
110.42
44.72
49.95
14.41
20.07
29.55
217.44
139.96

8.42
139.45
69.20
85.61
18.54
24.67
32.27
221.37
148.21

11.95
192.37
80.30
101.54
19.64
32.27
58.02
247.38
148.70

12.82
199.98
86.70
144.00
25.08
35.28
60.59
256.25
176.61

Use this information for reset of macros

50

274104
59151
94121
60392
270439
140275
40080
39866
53995
0
1.0324
20
99.78%
35.61%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

50
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
1,041.60
82.81
263.54
326.12
405.66
280.55
120.24
318.93
80.99
20,470.43

ut into correct time buckets

8

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

14.34
214.23
102.93
182.97
33.46
40.82
91.27
257.92
206.39

15.15
217.35
112.94
192.25
34.89
46.55
100.07
282.72
218.21

18.27
228.79
119.38
194.35
44.18
53.06
121.47
285.92
232.89

21.74
262.62
128.32
199.76
52.54
61.25
164.72
288.82
246.82

23.42
290.94
136.10
227.56
60.28
64.00
174.98
313.92
286.70

27.52
317.11
145.25
230.05
62.77
66.94
203.67
328.80
294.17

31.84
339.64
161.79
250.11
63.33
81.26
273.38
331.10
295.79

34.45
343.64
172.70
276.55
64.02
92.09
340.52
331.91
303.98

44.05
355.72
180.04
280.79
66.12
103.87
370.54
347.74
323.03

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

50.42
368.69
201.63
296.83
69.58
111.15
373.64
375.28
335.85

51.43
430.09
219.53
304.64
71.69
115.91
375.73
464.11
347.60

52.87
441.14
222.08
314.42
76.59
127.91
393.07
545.64
363.94

58.62
463.59
226.06
320.71
83.67
135.44
426.87
549.90
366.66

61.75
465.50
234.58
327.91
87.56
146.32
431.40
613.41
372.59

62.08
481.49
248.57
339.39
89.98
152.46
439.62
614.02
381.19

62.67
489.42
255.29
358.92
91.98
156.50
447.58
633.79
384.46

71.78
493.74
271.44
400.43
93.49
163.76
455.12
643.53
400.41

78.05
495.88
283.78
414.48
98.12
167.95
458.46
664.08
421.97

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

84.94
515.39
297.28
419.89
98.87
175.58
559.03
685.22
429.09

90.74
527.11
300.61
447.36
102.56
182.76
590.23
686.10
435.60

95.58
559.36
316.41
485.27
106.97
191.28
645.74
691.83
440.19

100.03
608.94
330.46
491.99
110.08
198.28
697.60
693.46
442.21

102.08
620.66
342.46
493.44
121.91
205.83
725.76
696.77
455.79

104.04
628.30
347.20
520.59
124.02
211.08
828.83
767.69
470.58

113.00
649.89
355.15
527.83
125.89
218.13
850.20
773.17
500.80

119.21
655.61
365.62
547.03
130.53
223.26
908.79
833.68
510.91

123.17
664.98
379.89
556.17
132.66
225.47
930.23
881.39
517.50

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

126.70
680.45
390.72
564.72
136.82
240.16
971.66
915.15
525.72

135.91
685.11
397.31
589.89
137.45
241.78
985.57
919.87
558.31

139.63
714.92
402.99
598.97
140.62
246.57
1001.08
947.22
630.97

141.65
758.97
415.43
611.79
147.86
253.21
1056.43
953.30
635.21

145.34
767.91
428.88
643.31
153.40
259.20
1144.36
978.97
655.30

152.21
805.83
438.75
655.18
159.63
263.98
1183.83
1003.47
664.00

155.83
823.84
443.73
662.01
164.52
278.55
1196.42
1004.54
696.85

161.50
855.48
461.31
673.12
166.55
280.88
1197.41
1040.14
756.24

163.92
905.25
478.58
682.16
168.14
284.17
1203.98
1042.12
762.24

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Number of failures recorded in e

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

171.93
922.30
489.99
720.48
172.83
288.04
1224.25
1062.44
766.78

180.56
929.56
499.15
726.72
178.85
300.53
1227.93
1089.78
775.24

185.88
934.77
508.74
734.29
179.86
305.03
1245.77
1187.41
797.25

191.14
935.71
521.50
767.82
180.24
306.38
1273.79
1197.48
835.31

200.13
941.42
528.77
782.91
182.51
319.02
1362.75
1198.91
841.94

204.50
943.08
542.22
792.11
184.29
324.89
1365.99
1214.82
863.80

205.52
974.39
552.17
803.58
187.90
328.94
1401.58
1227.81
869.03

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Number of failures recorded in each year of operation

2

10

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Use this colum for reset of macros

47

48

49

50

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

10

11

12

13

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

50

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Cost is from Monte Carlo Simulation, H59:BE59

# iterations--> 1000000
Year-->
1
2
3
Cost--> $19,003 $19,548 $19,823

4
$20,010

5
$20,142

6
$20,235

7
$20,312

$/Year

Cost vs Time
$20,600
$20,400
$20,200
$20,000
$19,800
$19,600
$19,400
$19,200
$19,000
$18,800
0

10

20

30
Years

40

50

8
$20,364

60

9
$20,413

10
$20,436

11
$20,453

12
$20,456

13
$20,468

14
$20,462

15
$20,455

16
$20,457

17
$20,461

18
$20,449

19
$20,456

20
$20,459

21
$20,457

22
$20,459

23
$20,459

24
$20,464

25
$20,464

26
$20,469

27
$20,472

28
$20,474

29
$20,472

30
$20,474

31
$20,470

32
$20,469

33
$20,471

34
$20,474

35
$20,471

36
$20,470

37
$20,473

38
$20,467

39
$20,475

40
$20,471

41
$20,475

42
$20,469

43
$20,471

44
$20,470

45
$20,476

46
$20,467

47
$20,476

48
$20,468

49
$20,470

50
$20,470