Multiplication Theorem Of Probability

Multiplication Theorem Of Probability In earlier Classes, we have studied the probability as ameasure of uncertainty of events in a random experiment.We discussed the axiomatic approach formulated byRussian Mathematician, A.N. Kolmogorov (1903-1987)and treated probability as a function of outcomes of theexperiment. We have also established equivalence betweenthe axiomatic theory and the classical theory of probabilityin case of equally likely outcomes. On the basis of thisrelationship, we obtained probabilities of events associatedwith discrete sample spaces. We have also studied theaddition rule of probability. In this chapter, we shall discussthe important concept of conditional probability of an eventgiven that another event has occurred, which will be helpfulin understanding the Bayes' theorem, multiplication rule of probability and independence of events. We shall also learnan important concept of random variable and its probabilitydistribution and also the mean and variance of a probability distribution. KnowMoreAboutHowToDoShortDivision

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In the lastsection of the chapter, we shall study an important discrete probability distributioncalled Binomial distribution. Throughout this chapter, we shall take up the experimentshaving equally likely outcomes, unless stated otherwise. Uptill now in probability, we have discussed the methods of finding the probability of events. If we have two events from the same sample space, does the informationabout the occurrence of one of the events affect the probability of the other event? Letus try to answer this question by taking up a random experiment in which the outcomesare equally likely to occur. Now, suppose we are given that the first coin shows tail, i.e. F occurs, then what isthe probability of occurrence of E? With the information of occurrence of F, we aresure that the cases in which first coin does not result into a tail should not be consideredwhile finding the probability of E. This information reduces our sample space from theset S to its subset F for the event E. In other words, the additional information reallyamounts to telling us that the situation may be considered as being that of a newrandom experiment for which the sample space consists of all those outcomes onlywhich are favourable to the occurrence of the event F. At least the examples that Wiggins uses portrays Bayes Theorem as a means of approximating the probability for an individual case based on the probability in general, plus relevant information about the individual case. Or putting it another way, Wiggins describes it in terms of God, "...calculate the probability of God given our experiences in the world (the existence of evil, religious experiences, etc.) and assign numbers to the likelihood of these facts given existence or nonexistence of God, as well as to the prior belief of God's existence--the probability we would assign to the existence of God if we had no data from our experiences." ReadMoreAboutExplainDifferentiation

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The "prior belief" is an essential factor in Bayes' equation. In the Wiggin's article, he uses an example of a doctor trying to determine the probability a patient has a particular disease given the prior likelihood (what fraction of the general population has the disease) and the particular patient's medical test results and the statistical accuracy of the test. In this example, the fraction of the population that has the disease is the "prior" because it is not based on the individual. However, for this prior to be helpful, it needs to be accurate which means we'd like it to be based on solid evidence. On the other hand, Wiggins mentions Richard Swinburne as one person who has tried to use Bayes' to support the existence of God. "Swinburne assigns God a prior probability of 50 percent since there are only two choices: God exists or does not." This strikes me as a very poor rationale. For instance, in Wiggin's doctor example there are only two possibilities: the patient has the disease being tested for or he doesn't. However, if we assigned a prior probability of 50% rather than the fraction of the population with the disease, we'd come to very different conclusions. Perhaps, we can look at the usefulness of assigning a prior probability via an analogy with sampling size and sampling error in surveys. The larger the sampling size [amount of evidence], the greater the probability that the survey results accurately reflect the entire population. If the sample size [evidence] is very small, the survey results will be undependable. Even if we accept the idea that the prior for the existence of God must be placed at 50% because we totally lack a basis for any other guess, we may have to realize this means there is a high margin for "sampling error". The resulting probability that is calculated is extremely imprecise and could be off by a large amount.

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