QUARTERLY April, 24 nd 2 0 1 2 - YEAR II Bilingue (ENGLISH VERSION)

Nr. 11
Newsletter
Pub.

Dear Readers! the early Atcentury, thestages of the XXI communication emerges as 4th power in the life of societies and we feel participating in this important evolution. The new Information and Communication Technologies are today a fundamental tool for services and product management specially for big brands. In this 11th of the Newsletter, we talk about the discoveries of natural gas in the offshore Mozambique Rovuma Basin in an article that illustrates the adventures of natural gas exploration in deep waters. Then, we touch on the success of China in the global energy scene, oil industry in particular, with the impressive Petrochina, a young Chinese company, with little more than 13 years in the market, but which already exceeded the giant U.S. Exxon Mobil to become the worlds largest producer of oil. We also revisit HCB dossier, talking on the management reversal to Mozambican State, which is the materialization of the dream of the President Armando Guebuza, when years ago he said loudly: Cahora Bassa is ours. The Media Project Energy and Extractive Industry Mozambique is an initiative of the Mozambican company, STATUS Consultores de Comunicao Lda, which aims at innovative the way to share ideas and knowledge in the Energy Sector, as well as provide consultancy services and advice on strategic communication. We foster the principles of the right for information in full respect with responsible citizenship and aim to contribute to the economic and social development of Mozambique in a sustainable manner. To this end, we encourage our dear readers and potential partners to disclose this initiative to other stakeholders so that we can add to our audience of over 5 million readers nationally and internationally. Happy reading!

Exploration of gas in deep waters: The Mozambican case

The announcement by the North American multinational Anadarko Petroleum (a company with 52 000 million dollars estimated capital) of ndings of enormous reserves of natural gas in the Rovuma basin, northern Mozambique, has been received with great enthusiasm by many and with relative concern by some. Heres why:
Enthusiasm, because the exploration of natural gas represent great hope for the development of the country; it is one of the most meaningful natural gas reserve in the continent, which combined with the undergoing exploration of coal and other reserves which are still in research, places the country in a worldwide strategic position regarding energy and extractive capacity this all comes with high potential for economic growth! Apprehension, because the ndings have stormed and agitated diverse groups, both national and international, in all sectors, from investors to environmentalists, the maa and even pirates. It also brings sensitivity and high expectations to the Mozambicans, reviving hopes and dreams of a possible prosper and easy future. When we add experience and observation to the mix, we create room for very important reections: The current situation of Mozambique is not unseen at a global scale. Other nations have lived such periods with varying degrees of success at the outcome! Currently, all the upside expectations of growth and prosperity clash with the countrys realities, characterized by general poverty (both rural and urban areas). We should not allow any chance for the enormous opportunities lying ahead becoming a curse to all involved. Mozamb i q u e should not replicate Sierra Leon, Nigeria, Liberia and some of Angolas negative outcomes. Then there are the inherent industry risks. These risks are even bigger when we are dealing with the exploration of natural gas in deep waters through the offshore process (referring to the exploration of oil and gas in the sea). That is the exact case of the Rovuma basin in Mozambique. What is the peculiarity of the gas exploration in deep waters? Historically, the exploration in deep waters has focus primarily on the exploration of oil. But in recent

years, the gas exploration in deep waters has gained a greater focus and importance. This fact has been stimulated by the a greater global demand projected for the gas due to the raising consciousness of gas as a clean and greener energy source, as well as for being an energetic promise for the future. The advances in the offshore Cont. pag. 2

PUB.

Obama rules out Rio+20 Pag. 4

Why Iran Believe they are Safe from effects of oil sanctions

PETRLEOS DE MOAMBIQUE

and more...

Pag. 6

News

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consumption base (to prefer renewable sources) and the use of natural gas has a cleaner source which contributes to lessen greenhouse emissions. production technologies (multi-phase submarine systems) have allowed the development of production sites localized at about 100km off shore, in deep water seabed (more than 1000m deep). The trend is surely of a continued increase in liqueed natural gas (LNG) production, in response to the increase global energy demands, covering both domestic to industrial needs. The high prices of oil and gas has pushed the producing companies to search for gas in deep waters in sometimes harsh environmental conditions, executing projects that would not be viable 10 years ago. The environmental protection advocacy has also gain traction, intensied through a scientic studies and historical measurement databases showing that the emission of hydrocarbons generate greenhouse gas effect resulting in potentially serious impact on the world climate patterns. This is driving a change on the The main focus is moving from the traditional survey areas such as the Gulf of Mexico and the northern sea, towards the deep waters areas of occidental Africa, South America, the Barents sea and recently the Rovuma river basin in Mozambique. Still the exploration of gas in deep waters presents great technical and commercial challenges. Frequently the identied reserves sites are still economically unfeasible or requiring too much expenses and capital investments for production operations. Despite the constant research and development in the production technologies, such as the multi-phase techniques, there are still some obstacles.

NATURAL GAS

Mozambique: Anadarko completes planned appraisal drilling program in Rovuma Basin offshore areas
V Village, Mozambique recently selected Prosperic dade (Prosperity) as the d name for the discovery n area in the Offshore Area a 1 block. Prosperidade includes the Windjammer, c Barquentine, Lagosta B and Camarao sites as a well as the ve subsew quent appraisal wells in q the block. As previously t announce, Prosperidade a is estimated to hold rei coverable resources of c 17 to 30-plus trillion cubic feet of natural gas. f Our appraisal drilling program in the

A d k h Anadarko has announced that, with d th t ith the success of its Barquentine-4 appraisal well, the partnership has completed the drilling portion of its planned appraisal program in the discovery area offshore Mozambique. The Barquentine-4 well, located in Offshore Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin, encountered approx. 525 net feet (160 meters) of natural gas pay, and became the Anadarko partnerships ninth successful well in the complex. Additionally, the company announced that sixth- and seventh-grade students of Escola Unidade and Escola Primaria 16 de Junho in Palma

Prosperidade complex offshore Mozambique delivered outstanding results that provide signicant condence in the vast extent of this accumulation and will be key in achieving third-party reserve certication, as we advance the partnerships world-class LNG (liqueed natural gas) project toward FID (nal investment decision), Anadarko Sr. Vice President, Worldwide Exploration, Bob Daniels said. The selection of Prosperidade as the eld name is certainly appropriate, as it symbolizes the partnerships expectations for this area and the opportunities it represents for the people of Mozambique. Our next step is to mobilize the drillship to the northern section of our block to begin testing additional high-potential exploration prospects that may expand the resource even further and provide tieback opportunities for future LNG hub facilities. He added. The Barquentine-4 well is the northernmost well in the Prosperidade complex, approx. 19 miles (30 kms) north of the Lagosta discovery well located on the southern end. It is located in water depths of approx. 5,400 feet (1,650 meters). PUB.

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News

MARKETS

Angola intends to diversify exports to china by including minerals

The Angolan government is analysing with China, the scenarios of export of Angolan minerals production output, which might increase and diversify the commercial exchanges between the two nations, afrmed in Macau, the Angolan ambassador in china, Joao Garcia Bires. The ambassador referred that options include the export of zinc and copper, among others, in exchange of receiving machines and others equipment from China, which would contribute to the Angolan development program. In Macau, participating to a preparatory meeting from the activities of the Macau forum for 2012, the diplomat underlined the historical importance of the relations between Angola and the China. Joao Garcia Bires congratulated the creation by China of a fund estimated in one million dollars aimed at deepen the relations between China and Portuguese speaking countries, but he also stated that this is another enabler but not the base for the relations with Angola. The ambassador reminded that Angolas reconstruction plans require cooperation and partnerships with China as well as other Nations, and that Luandas soon to come program aimed at Agricultural Development will expand those needs as it will tackle agro-industrial labour and mineral exploration. (Source: Macauhub)

OIL

PetroChina surpasses Exxon and becomes the biggest oil producer in the world
A fundamental change is occurring in the competition landscape amongst the top oil Companies operating in the market. A giant American company is behind a debutant Chinese company. Exxon Mobil is not the biggest producer negotiated in the world stock markets any more. For the rst time, the winning title goes to a 13 years old Chinese oil company named PetroChina, that was created by the Chinese government to guarantee more oil for the countrys growing economy. On 29th of March, PetroChina announced that it had produced 2,4 million of barrels of oil per day, last year, surpassing Exxon by 100 barrels. The Chinese company grew fast in the early few years, by being able to squeeze the oldest oil elds in China and allowing itself to executing less scrutinized investments than the occidental companies on acquisition of oil reserves in places such as Canada, Iraq and Qatar, motivated by the need to guarantee the biggest quantity of oil possible. The production of the Chinese company has increased 3,3% in 2011, while Exxon has decreased 5%. The Exxon production fell even behind the Rosneft from Russia. The rising of PetroChina distinguishes the fundamental difference about how the biggest companies of oil plan to provide oil to the world, once the new deposits have be-

come rare and more expensive to produce. The biggest oil companies are looking for new elds to replace the actual wells. PetroChina has a different mission. The Chinese government control 86% of its shares and China uses almost all oil the company produces. The Chinese appetite for fuel and other petro fuels is estimated to double between 2010 and 2035. We should move forward, commented the president of the Chinese company, Jiang Jiemin, source: Valor, Associated press.

News

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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

Obama rules out Rio +20

At least one hundred head of states and governments have conrmed their presence at the Rio +20 conference; this is the number of presidents and prime-ministers who have requested a slot in the conference that will be occurring in June, in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), according to Andre Correa do Lago, head-negotiator of the event.

Brief
Sale of 7,5% of HCB: An open door for Portuguese companies in Mozambique

The exact names of the participants have not been revealed

In order to defuse critics about the potential drift of the agenda, away from environment and sustainable development, Correa do Lago has promised that the number of attendees would show the importance of the event which will count with the presence of representatives from 193 countries. Meanwhile, during a conversation with the Brazilian president Dilma Roussef, at the white house, the north-american president Barack Obama has basically ruled out his participation in the event. He claims that his presidential campaign obligations, which will start peaking in June, will not allow him to be absent at that period. On the nal declaration of the ofcial visit to the United States, the Brazilian diplomacy said that both Obama and Dilma agreed on the importance of the full U.S. participation in the high level segment of the conference from 20th to the 22 of June, in an indication that U.S. will send a high level delegation and therefore help strengthen the Rio +20 event importance. Source: NN

Pedro Passos Coelho, the Portuguese prime-minister and Armando Emilio Guebuza the head of state of Mozambique, signed in Maputo a document that ofcialises the sale of the 7,5% of the hydroelectric company Cahora Bassa. At the same time, the two countries have agreed the transference to Mozambique of the still remaining 7,5% held by Portugal, within 2 years maximum, which generated more business opportunities for the Portuguese companies. (Source: Jornal de Negcios)

MINING

Zimbabwe determines mining revenues must stay in the country

The Zimbabwean government has determined that foreign mining companies export revenues must be deposited in local banks, state media reported, in what was seen as the latest government measure to put pressure on foreign companies, as the country tries to solve the leakage of dollars which affects the economy. The Mining Minister, Obert Mpofu, told the Sunday Mail that the cabinet decided to tell the mining companies to bring back their gains arising from transactions in Zimbabwe, which are deposited in foreign accounts. We have been liberal. It makes no sense that mining companies operate in the country and keep the money in offshore accounts, said Mpofu.

grew 9.3 percent in 2011 and should grow 9.4 percent this year, according to ofcial gures. But the country is ghting against an acute shortage of dollars. Zimbabwe adopted the use of foreign currencies, primarily the U.S. dollar and South African rand in 2009, after its own currency was destroyed by hyperination, which reached 500 billion percent in December 2008. The foreign mining companies operating in the country have been pressured by the government to transfer most of their shares to local enterprises. Last week, Impala Platinum, the second largest producer of platinum in the world, bowed to pressure and said it would transfer 51 percent of its shares in its unit Zimplats to local investors. The worlds largest producers of platinum, Anglo American Platinum and Rio Tinto which manage diamond mines, are some of the multinationals operating in Zimbabwe. Source: Nelson Banya

An order was issued and they should bring all the money back to the country because the economy is dollarized now, added. The unity government of Zimbabwe has managed to stabilize the economy, which

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News

WORLD

Energy sector will be the leader in the economic recovery

The energy sector will play a key role in the global economic growth, with its indirect contributions surpassing the already signicant direct effects, according to a report carried by the World Economic Forum, presented in CERAWeek energy conference, which took place in Houston, in the U.S. State of Texas. The report entitled energy for the economic growth, offers a framework of comprehension on the economic role of the energy industry, in a period when unemployment and investments

increasing their interest in renewable energy, including solar energy, as potentials sectors for the economic development of their country. However, it is known that the high levels of these techcou nologies require economic trade-offs that have to be carefully nol considered. con The energy prices will always be volatile, which represents a challenge for a long term economic planning, afrmed Kenc neth net Rogoff, Economy professor in the Harvard University. The interesting question is to nd a formula to turn this instability less inte prejudicial for the economy, mentioned (OJE).

Mozambique: African Energy Resources sent successfully coal from Botswana to Matola terminal
The australian mining company African Energy Resources have sucessfully sent by rail a wagon with 25 tons of coal extracted in the Sese mine, in Botswana, to the coal terminal of Matola, in Mozambique, operated by South African group Grindrod, said the company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. The test wagon was loaded with 25 tons of thermal coal in the Francistown station of Botswana Railways on the 3rd of April and sent via Bulawayo in southern Zimbabwe to Maputo, where it arrived on 7th April. In the statement, the African Energy Resources said that the success of this test showed that it is possible to transport coal to the east coast of Africa in order to be exported to markets in Asia / Pacic, mainly India and China. (source: Macahub)

are still complicated issues in a disturbed global economy. As an example, in the US, the gas and oil industry contributed for the injection of 37 thousand direct job posts in 2011, that generated the creation, during the same period, of 111 thousand indirect jobs. These almost 150 thousand job posts represent 9% of the total job posts created in 2011 in the U.S. According to Daniel Yergin, the president of CERA, the energy industry is the only one that respects its economic importance and has a potential to become a signicant catalyser for the creation of jobs and sustainable growth without harming the general performance of the sector. The Energy Industry is by nature, capital intensive, requiring for that high levels of investments. Simultaneously, it has equally the capacity of managing signicant contributions for the gross domestic product (GDP). We always suspected that the energy would play a crucial role in the economic recovery, claims Roberto Bocca, responsible for the area of energetic industries of the World Economy Forum. Meanwhile, we must confess that we were however surprise with the results on the report issued, which quanties and reveals the true magnitude of the multiplying effects added. In addition, the report examines the role of the prices of energy in the economy. Naturally the lower prices reduce the input costs of the majority of goods and services, which turn them more accessible. The short term models show for example that lower prices of natural gas will help the north American economy through various ways: 1.1% of increase in the GDP in 2013, one million additional jobs in 2014 and 3% increase in terms of industrial production in 2017. Many countries such as China, India and South Korea are

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Why Iran Believe they B li th are Safe from effects of oil sanctions
fter initial outrage, bluster and bravado, Iran appears to have come to terms with impending Western sanctions on the countrys oil and nancial sector; to the point of saying they dont think it will have any meaningful impact at all. Iran deems Western politicians as lacking the courage to stick with the ban in the face of a further rally in oil prices; which will be inevitable, as they see it, if the West goes ahead with the ban. So are they right to be so sanguine? Will Irans Asian customers take up the slack in buying production that the country cannot sell elsewhere? Indeed, is a price rally an inevitable and ultimately crushing certainty if Irans oil is cut off from world markets? We think not. A dramatic rise in prices is likely only in the event of outright aggression, either from Israel striking Iranian nuclear enrichment plants and eliciting Iranian retaliation, or Iranian aggressive action in the straits of Hormuz (passageway to a sizeable chunk of global seaborne oil shipments). One benet of the six-month delay the West put on the ban has been giving the world time to adjust to a market with constrained Iranian supply. Reuters reporter Clyde Russell calculated that Chinas oil inventories may be growing by 670,000 barrels per day. Similarly, OPECs own monthly oil market report suggested Chinese stock building may be as high as 800,000 bpd, explaining why Chinese oil imports have been soaring while the economy has been slowing and all pointers are suggesting oil imports should slow, if not fall. A signicant part of the largest trade decit China has ever seen in January was due to a rising oil import bill; if China is indeed importing as much as 800,000 bpd for stock, one can understand Iran may be reading that as robust demand. Source: by Stuart Burns; OilPrice

LTA FA

C U R I O S I T i e s
THE DEFINITION OF NATURAL GAS Natural gas is composed of a mixture of hydrocarbons (methane, propane, ethane, butane and others gases in lesser proportion) found on the subsoil. The composition of natural gas can change depending of the eld factors where the gas is produced (onshore, offshore). Natural gas is a fossil fuel therefore and non- renewable energy. Forms of exploration Onshore exploration Its the type of bore/drill that occurs inland. The equipment utilized contains drills that rotate to tear the rock, bringing to the surface the extracted material obtained in the subsoil. When successful, these channels hit pockets of natural gas that then ows to the surface and are captured in the production facility for transformation and transport/distribution. For example the gas exploration named Panda by SASOL. Offshore exploration This type of exploration consists on the production and exploration of gas and oil in maritime seabed. For example the investigations held by Anakardo in the Rovuma Basin. PROVED RESERVES Proved reserves are reserves that, based in the geographic and engineering surveys, can be commercially viable, with a high level of certitude the classication includes factoring the applicable economic conditions, the operational methods available for the site(s) and the local law and regulations.

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Pub. 7

Media Project Energy & Extractive Industries Mozambique awarded in New York

The mozambican company STATUS Consultores de Comunicao Ltd, under its Media Project Energy and Extractive Industry Mozambique has been awarded with the International Quality Summit Award in the category of gold, an event taking place on 27th and 28th of May this year in New York, organized by Business Initiative Directions (BID), a private organization that awards the prestigious World companies that distinguish themselves in providing services and products using new technologies of communications and information. It must be noted that the International Quality Summit award (IQS) is oered in recognition of companies and organizations in dierent countries around the world promoting their reputation and position by implementing and promoting quality culture. The award recognizes and encourages our company and our project for the quality of services and satisfaction of our clients, readers, partners and organizations.

ok, cebo er, fa , twitttelevision bsite ur weazine andtatus.co.mz on o s w usletter, magergiamoz@ llo s Fo ew en atus. n ail: st
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Analysis

The resulting risks from the exploration of gas in deep waters of the Rovuma basin
The deep waters of the Rovuma basin along the Mozambican coast area 1, are proving to be a bonanza for the north-American oil company, Anakardo petroleum. The area has gained a considerable attention on the oil and gas industry and others sectors, when the multinational announced the discovery of the Tubaro site last February. Meanwhile, in the midst of the consequent fuzz, some risks emerge that deserve attention, namely political, economic, environmental, social, scal and environmental.
Political risk: For a better understanding of the political risks associated with exploration in the deep waters of the Rovuma basin, two passages of the recent report published by the London based organization, the Economist Intelligent Unit (EIU) seem sufciently clear: The development of gas and other resources of hydrocarbons including oil, will have great implications for Mozambique, producing new substantial sources of revenue for the government and reducing the importance of external help and as a consequence, the capacity of external interest groups for pressuring the government. (Extracts of the EIU report on Mozambique). The scenario described above is extremely bothering. Not due to lack of patriotic sense or a desire of greater autonomy and political independence from the government towards the foreign countries. The point is that civil society in the country is still weak. Its advancement and progress remains a major challenge, depending heavily in the donors community long term commitment. This community, which includes the Programmatic Aid Partners, is the most active in pressing the Mozambican government for continued investment in ghting corruption, foster good governance practices and transparency in the conduct of State affairs. Even on this context of pressure, these efforts have yet to produce full results, as evidenced by the prevailing secrecy and non-disclosure of the details related to the mega-projects and still pending ratication of Mozambiques adherence to the Initiative for Transparency in the Extraction Industry (ITET). Some advocate that the Government improved autonomy and self-reliance may weaken the pressure groups effectiveness. How resilient the Government practices will be in this context? Will the elementary democracy be sustained? Are there any risks of setbacks such as in the case of Angola? Economic and Fiscal Risk: The same article from Economist Intelligent Unit aleven endangered, as rules may lessen the tax burdens - from individual tax to other smaller tax incidences - hoping in return, reduced scrutiny and pressures from civil society. This would further create dependency on gas and coal, and be an explosive combination, as the main tax contributors would surely gain unlimited power base and inuence, swinging back the future of the countries free strategic choices. Social and environmental risk: Society may suffer from the above risks, but it is also within a strong and healthy society that the same risks are mitigated! A robust and integrated society, participatory and inclusive, where woman are given voice and where representative groups of vulnerable segments are treated with dignity and advance out from basic poverty, is surely much better equipped to help avoid these risks and transform them into positive outcomes. Citing the distinguished Renaissance philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli the best fortress is the people themselves, their love and loyalty towards the State. The reverse is the social instability, poverty, social injustice, corruption, weak institutions, insecurity and other social issues. Hence, the challenge now is to promote the social integration of vulnerable groups, the marginalized, especially those who represent a huge potential for conict as the former combatants (without discrimination), promote the empowerment and capacity building of communities, especially women and strengthening the private sector, especially small businesses initiatives. This may prevent acts of sabotage and other characteristic manifestations, popular uprisings, internal armed conicts, political fragmentation, thus creating a climate of ownership and acceptance of the megaprojects by Mozambican People instead of the sharp hostility as we have been witnessing recently. The Environmental Risks are inherent to the production operations in deep waters. There are risks such as leaks, spill or re in the gas platforms and gas transport because of its highly ammable nature.

lows us to look at the economic and scal risks and their interdependency. The issue is the potential for Mozambiques economy to become too much dependent on gas and coal and polarize as in the case of Zambia with revenues from copper, Russia on gas and oil, Saudi Arabia on oil, Angola on oil and diamantes, to name a few. In these countries more than 80% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) comes from the mining industry. A great dependence of the state taxes revenues solely on gas and coal, may adversely affect the countrys development and the economy diversication. The various crises experienced in the world have shown us that relying excessively on tax revenue from oil is harmful to economic and social development. The future of the Tax Authority may be

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