TYPE I & TYPE II ERRORS WITH EXAMPLES

MADE BY : ISHAN JAIN 0471483608 M2

INTRODUCTION
Type I error (or, error of the first kind) and Type II error (or, error of the second kind) are precise technical terms used in statistics to describe particular flaws in a testing process, where a true null hypothesis was incorrectly rejected (Type I error) or where one fails to reject a false null hypothesis (Type II error).

Statistical test theory

In statistical test requires an unambiguous statement of a null hypothesis, which usually corresponds to a default "state of nature", for example "this person is healthy", "this accused is not guilty" or "this product is not broken". An alternative hypothesis is the negation of null hypothesis, for example, "this person is not healthy", "this accused is guilty" or "this product is broken". The result of the test may be negative, relative to null hypothesis (not healthy, guilty, broken) or positive (healthy, not guilty, not broken). If the result of the test corresponds with reality, then a correct decision has been made. However, if the result of the test does not correspond with reality, then an error has occurred. Due to the statistical nature of a test, the result is never, except in very rare cases, free of error. Two types of error are distinguished: type I error and type II error.

Type I error
A type I error, also known as an error of the first kind, is the wrong decision that is made when a test rejects a true null hypothesis (H0). A type I error may be compared with a so called false positive in other test situations

Type II error
A type II error, also known as an error of the second kind, is the wrong decision that is made when a test fails to reject a false null hypothesis. A type II error may be compared with a so-called false negative in other test situations.

 What we actually call type I or type II error depends directly on the null hypothesis. Negation of the null hypothesis causes type I and type II errors to switch roles. The goal of the test is to determine if the null hypothesis can be rejected. A statistical test can either reject (prove false) or fail to reject (fail to prove false) a null hypothesis, but never prove it true (i.e., failing to reject a null hypothesis does not prove it true).

EXAMPLES
As it is conjectured that adding fluoride to toothpaste protects against cavities, the null hypothesis of no effect is tested. When the null hypothesis is true (i.e., there is indeed no effect), but the data give rise to rejection of this hypothesis, falsely suggesting that adding fluoride is effective against cavities, a type I error has occurred. A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false (i.e., adding fluoride is actually effective against cavities), but the data are such that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected, failing to prove the existing effect. In colloquial usage type I error can be thought of as "convicting an innocent person" and type II error "letting a guilty person go free".

For example, NASA engineers would prefer to throw out an electronic circuit that is really fine (null hypothesis H0: not broken; reality: not broken; action: thrown out; error: type I, false positive) than to use one on a spacecraft that is actually broken (null hypothesis H0: not broken; reality: broken; action: use it; error: type II, false negative). In that situation a type I error raises the budget, but a type II error would risk the entire mission. Alternatively, criminal courts set high bar for proof and procedure and sometimes release someone who is guilty (null hypothesis: innocent; reality: guilty; test find: not guilty; action: release; error: type II, false negative) rather than convict someone who is innocent (null hypothesis: innocent; reality: not guilty; test find: guilty; action: convict; error: type I, false positive). Each system makes its own choice regarding where to draw the line. Minimizing errors of decision is not a simple issue; for any given sample size the effort to reduce one type of error generally results in increasing the other type of error. The only way to minimize both types of error, without just improving the test, is to increase the sample size, and this may or may not be feasible.

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