Baby Boomers in Canada

Subject: The Impact of Ageing Baby Boomers on Canada.

To: Duncan, Dwight (Minister of Finance) Prepared By: INSERT NAME HERE Date: 4th April, 2012 Issue: The average life expectancy for both men and women residing within Canadian borders has been constantly on the rise since the early 1900s to a maximum of approximately 80 years (Refer to Appendix 4). When this effect is coupled with a population in which an increasing segment of people are above the age of 65, we definitely have an imminent problem on our hands; dealing with such a huge retired population is very taxing, both economically and socially. The Canadian government has to alter its policies in order to develop capabilities of providing health care, pension and other benefits to the retirees. It is estimated that by the year 2026, when the majority of the baby boom cohort will be retired, the mean age will increase to 43.3 years and the overall percentage of seniors in the entire population will be 21.2%. In addition, by the year 2051, these statistics are expected to shoot up to 46.8 years and 26.4%, correspondingly (Statistics Canada). Similarly, another estimate by the Public Health Agency of Canada predicts a sharp rise in the percentage of retirees over the next 40 years (Refer to Appendix 2). This means that the magnitude of the problem may be greater than initially perceived. Background: Even though a certified classification of the baby boom phenomenon is not available, the popular opinion dictates it as a time period that lasted from the years 1946 to 1965 in which greater than before birthrates were witnessed. The Great Depression in the 1930s had extended the decline in Canada's rate of birth, in a similar fashion to the majority of Western nations. The lowest point in Canada was reached in the year 1937, when the accumulated number of live births for every 1000 inhabitants per year was 20.1. Enhanced financial circumstances resulted in a revival that gained momentum in the Second World War. By the year 1945, the annual rate of birth had climbed up to 24.3 for every 1000 inhabitants, by the year 1946 increasing to 27.2 for every 1000 people and it lingered between 27 and 28.5 until late 1959; subsequently displaying a steady decline (David Cheal). Moreover, greater than 50% of baby boom related births can be credited to what demographers refer to as a timing phenomena. In the time period from the end of the Second World War to the year 1965, a huge number of adults married at a relatively younger age and displayed a trend of having an offspring in the initials years of their conjugal life. In the time frame between 1940 and 1960, the number of births in Canada on a yearly basis grew from 253,000 in to 479,000. They declined to approximately 419,000 in the year 1965. Through a time frame of 25 years, the baby boom resulted in an estimated 1.5 million additional births than

Baby Boomers in Canada would have otherwise come about. By the year 1965, a vast majority of the people were tying the knot at a later age as well as waiting longer before producing an offspring. This was, in part, a result of a greater number of females joining the labor force and also due to the easy accessibility to improved techniques of birth control.

Key Considerations: There was a point in time when the baby boom phenomenon was vital to a wide assortment of elucidations in the academic discipline of social sciences. Although still essential, it no longer acts in a manner the theoretical concept anticipates it to. Following existing trends, hefty additions to various age brackets in the retired population can be predicted by the Canadian social order over the next 20 years (Refer to Appendix 1). Still, the constantly evolving financial system, approach and expectations about standards of living in addition to an increased life expectancy are reevaluating this eras attitude towards ageing and retirement. As the baby boomers age and give up work, it will produce a void which would require the workforce to fill in the vacant positions, a lot of which will demand a specific skill set. This may induce the necessity of retaining older employees by delaying their retirement, or to simply look for employees from abroad; raising the cost per worker to the companies. As depicted by the statistics, the sequestration of Canadas baby boomers started in 2010 and could be sprinkled over a time frame of two decades. As more and more of that cohort enters into their 60s, the work force containing older employees will rise, as mentioned before. In 2005, Studies regarding Canada's employee force, conducted in 2005 pointed out that senior citizens with an undergraduate degree had a greater probability of being able to contribute to the work force than seniors with eight years or less of formal schooling. By the year 2036, the senior segment of the population in Canada is likely to double and is anticipated to embody 23% to 25% of the entire populace which only constituted of 14% in the year 2009. Geographically, the senior population is spread over all of Canada with minor differences at present. As expected in the coming years, the figures are expected to rise and the distribution as well. Ontario lies in the centre of the distribution; the highest figures are on the Eastern front with states such as Nova Scoria (Refer to Appendix 3). Options and Recommendations: This phenomenon of ageing of the population is chiefly the consequence of a demographic momentum which is a direct consequence of child bearing choices that have previously been taken; hence, fresh suggestions regarding strategy should target the outcome of these developments instead of trying to alter the trends themselves. Although it may shift some priorities regarding initiative and aging; when taken in isolation it rarely leads to novel policies (David Cheal). But there is still a little time to build up apposite guidelines to accommodate this phenomenon. It is asserted that a coherent set of policies that integrate both lifestyle and demographic changes is necessary: the continual input of aged Canadians in the financial system is a vital component of their own well-being in addition to that of the nation as a whole.

Baby Boomers in Canada

Specific population related initiatives are required since a large proportion of the future population increase is prearranged by the existing age structure of the inhabitants. Therefore, policies that aim at enhancing fertility rates will boast the greatest marginal effects. In Canada, the mean age is drifting towards 40; this means that a good number of women have crossed the age for bearing children. Hence, initiatives such as monetary compensation for extra children and more liberal family stipends will have a diminutive overall result provided they are triumphant in increasing the fertility rates among women of child-bearing age. The alternative possibility for altering the age structure of the population is through the process of immigration. In order to have an enduring consequence on the demographic arrangement, immigration levels would have to mature at a faster pace than the population itself. The fresh immigrants would also have to be younger in age compared to the present population (Canadian Council for Refugees). In the workforce related policies, as the percentage of the unemployed to the working populace rises, the feasibility of numerous public agendas, specifically of health care and pensions, comes under fire. In order to counterbalance the slower worker growth and labor market deficiencies in the 2010s, regulations that push baby boomers to postpone their retirement will be needed . In healthcare, the challenge is not regarding the attainment of sufficient funding but that baby boom cohort will sponsor the major part of the share of its health care costs through surcharges and taxation accumulated under future RRSP withdrawals and current income. Instead, the test will be to plan a competent and effectual mechanism of health care delivery and to find the workforce crucial to convey such services. Provided that the forthcoming generation is to utilize the system intensively is the comparatively minute cluster born for the duration of the Great Depression, there now exists a chance to progress health care delivery before the baby boomers start to place their strongest demands on the system yet. We boomers have been the biggest winners from the social-welfare state. Today that state is stacked against the young. In Canada, we spend twice as much of our national income on health care as we do on education but health care mainly benefits the old. According to a recent C.D. Howe report, annual health-care costs for a person over 65 are three to four times greater than for someone under 44. For a person over 85, theyre 12 times greater. As the boomers age, the math gets ugly. By the 2020s, nearly 17 per cent of Canadas GDP will be spent on health care up from 12 per cent today. (Margaret Wente). This means that the demographics should be shifted from the old to the young not only to ensure less of a burden on the economy but a more productive workforce that propels Canada forward. It has to be kept in mind that the problem itself is cyclical in nature and hence, a proper long-term but not necessarily eternal solution should be thought of to better deal with the problem and not create issues.

Baby Boomers in Canada References Canada's Aging Population. (n.d.). The Sustainability Report. Retrieved April 6, 2012, from http://www.sustreport.org/signals/canpop_age.html

Mendleson, R. (2011, November 3). Grey Tsunami: Canada's Aging Population Means Fiscal Squeeze Coming, Study Says . The Huffington Post. Retrieved April 5, 2012, from http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/11/03/grey-tsunami-canada-agingpopulation_n_1074203.html

Projected population by age group according to three projection scenarios for 2006,2011,2016,2021,2026,2031 and 2036, at July 1. (n.d.). Statistics Canada: Canada's national statistical agency / Statistique Canada : Organisme statistique national du Canada. Retrieved April 6, 2012, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sumsom/l01/cst01/demo08a-eng.htm

Wente, M. (n.d.). Boomers' generation had everything it wanted and it still does - The Globe and Mail. Home - The Globe and Mail. Retrieved April 7, 2012, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/boomers-had-it-all-and-still-do-its-worththe-guilt/article2387987/

Who Are Canada's Seniors? - Canada's Aging Population - Public Health Agency of Canada. (n.d.). Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) | Agence de la sante publique du Canada (ASPC). Retrieved April 6, 2012, from http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/seniorsaines/publications/public/various-varies/papier-fed-paper/fedreport1-eng.php

Baby Boomers in Canada

Ccrweb.ca (2012) Migrant workers - Canada's Disposable Workforce | Canadian Council for Refugees. [online] Available at: http://ccrweb.ca/en/migrant-workers [Accessed: 10 Apr 2012]. Cheal, D. (2012) Aging and Demographic Change in Canadian Context. Toronto: University of Toronto Press

Baby Boomers in Canada Appendices

Percentage of Canadian population over 65 years of age (The Sustainability Report)

Appendix 1

Canadian population divided on age and sex, 2001 to 2041 (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Appendix 2

Baby Boomers in Canada

Percentage of seniors in each Canadian territory (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Appendix 3

Life expectancy in Canada (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Appendix 4