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StepsinSimulationStudy

Index

Clarificationofterminologies
DefinitionofSimulation Areasofapplication StepsinSimulationStudy Steps in Simulation Study ExamplesofSimulation

FlowChart
Problem Formulation Setting of objectives and overall project plan

Model conceptualization Model Translation

No No

Data Collection

Verified?
Yes

Validated?
Yes

No

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StepsinSimulationStudy FlowChart
No No

StepsinSimulationStudy(1/10)
ProblemFormulation Iftheproblemstatementisprovidedbythe policymakers,thentheanalystmustensure thattheproblembeingdescribedisclearly that the problem being described is clearly understood. Ifthestatementisbeingdevelopedbythe analyst,itisimportantthatthepolicymakers areagreewiththeproblem.
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Validated?
Yes

Experimental Design Production run & analysis

Yes

More runs??
No

Yes

Documentation & reporting

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StepsinSimulationStudy(2/10)
Settingofobjectivesandoverallprojectplan: Objectives indicatethequestionstobe answeredbythesimulation. p j p Overallprojectplanshouldincludeastatement ofthealternativesystemstobeconsideredanda methodforevaluatingtheeffectivenessofthese alternatives. Overallprojectplanalsoincludestheplansfor numberofpeopleinvolved,thecostofstudy, numberofdaysrequired,etc.
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StepsinSimulationStudy(3/10)
Modelconceptualization Startwithasimplemodelandbuildtowards greatercomplexity. Itisadvisabletoinvolvethemodeluserinmodel conceptualization itresults
enhancementofqualityofthemodel, increasetheconfidenceofmodeland Alsoincreasetheconfidenceofthemodeluserinthe applicationofthemodel.
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StepsinSimulationStudy(4/10)
DataCollection Dataisdependentuponthecomplexityofthe model ModelTranslation Modelmustbeenteredintoacomputer recognizableformat
Simulationlanguage:powerful&flexiblethan specializedone
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StepsinSimulationStudy(5/10)
Verified? Isthecomputerprogramperforming properly? Withcomplexmodel,itisdifficulttotranslate ih l d l i i diffi l l amodelsuccessfullyinitsentirety,withouta gooddealofdebugging. Commonsenseisusedincompletingthis step.
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StepsinSimulationStudy(6/10)
Validated? Isthedeterminationthatthemodelisan accuraterepresentationoftherealsystem. V lid i i Validationisusuallyachievedthroughthe ll hi d h h h calibrationofthemodel. Calibration:isaniterativeprocessofcomparing themodeltotheactualsystembehavior;using thediscrepanciesbetweenthetwo,andthe insightgainedtoimprovethemodel.
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StepsinSimulationStudy FlowChart
No No

Validated?
Yes

Experimental Design Production run & analysis

Yes

More runs??
No

Yes

Documentation & reporting

Implementation 1 May 2012 10

StepsinSimulationStudy(7/10)
ExperimentalDesign Oftenthedecisionconcerningthealternativesto simulate,maybeafunctionofsimulationruns (thathavebeencompletedandanalyzed). For each system design that is to simulate Foreachsystemdesignthatistosimulate, decisionsneedtobemade,concerning (i)thelengthfortheinitializationperiod, (ii)thelengthofsimulationruns, (iii)thenumberofreplicationtobemadeof eachrun.
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StepsinSimulationStudy(8/10)
Productionrunsandanalysis Itisusedtoestimatethemeasuresof performanceforthesystemdesignsthatare beingsimulated. being simulated Moreruns? Basedontheanalysisofrunsthathavebeen completed,theanalystdetermines the numberof(additional)runsneededfurther.
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StepsinSimulationStudy(9/10)
Documentationandreporting Therearetwosortsofdocumentation(i)Program&(ii)Progress (i)Program: Itisnecessarytoexplainhowtheprogramoperates. Iftheprogramistobemodifiedbythesameordifferentanalyst, thisshouldbefacilitatedbyadequatedocumentation. this should be facilitated by adequate documentation Incaseofchangingtheparameter clarificationneededforhowit effectoutputbychangingtheinput. (ii)Progress:Projectreportgiveachronologyofworkdoneand decisionsmade.

StepsinSimulationStudy(10/10)
Implementation Itdependsupontheprevious11stepsthathavebeen performed. Ifthemodeluserhasbeentheoreticallyinvolvedduring themodelbuildingprocessandifthemodeluser h d l b ildi d if h d l understandsthenatureofthemodelanditsoutputs,the likelihoodofavigorousimplementationisenhanced. Conversely,ifthemodelanditsunderlyingassumptions havenotbeenproperlycommunicated,implementation willprobablysuffer,regardlessofthesimulationmodels validity.
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Index

SingleChannelQueue(1/10)
Asmallgrocerystorehasonlyonecheckout counter. Customerarriveatthischeckoutatrandom p from1to8minutesapart. Interarrivaltime:timebetweentoarrival. Thistermisusedtocountarrivalevent. Eachpossiblevalueofinterarrivaltimehas thesameprobabilityofoccurrence,asshown inthetable1.
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Clarificationofterminologies
DefinitionofSimulation Areasofapplication StepsinSimulationStudy Steps in Simulation Study ExamplesofSimulation

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SingleChannelQueue(2/10)
Table1:Distributionofthetimebetween Time between Probability Cumulative Random digit arrival Arrivals probability Assignment
(minutes)

SingleChannelQueue(3/10)
Theservicetimesvaryfrom1to6minutes withtheprobabilitiesshowninthetable#2; Table2:Servicetimedistribution Random digit Service Time Probability Cumulative
(minutes)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125

0.125 0.250 0.375 0.500 0.625 0.750 0.875 1.000

001--125 126250 251375 376500 501625 626750 751875 876000

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probability

Assignment

1 2 3 4 5 6
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0.10 0.20 0.30 0.25 0.10 0.05

0.10 0.30 0.60 0.85 0.95 1.00

01--10 1130 3160 6185 8695 9600

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Single ChannelQueue(5/10) SingleChannelQueue(4/10)

Theproblemistoanalyzethesystembysimulatingthe arrivalandserviceof20customer. Ourmainpurposeisto,demonstratehowhand simulationsareconducted nottorecommendchangesin thegroceryshop(asthesamplesizeistoosmall). SimulationRuns Wehavetogeneraterandomarrivalandservicetime. Inchoosing/usingrandomnumbers,threedigitsare needed,sincetheprobabilitydistributionisdescribedwith threedigitaccuracy;e.g.0.125 note:inchoosingrandomdigits,neverreusethesame streamofdigitsinagivenproblem.
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Customer

Table3:Simulationrun1:Time betweenarrivaldetermination
Random Digits Time between arrival
(minutes)

Customer

Random Digits 109 093 607 738 359 888 106 212 493 535

Time between arrival

(minutes)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Assume to occur at 0 time 913 727 015 948 309 922 753 235 302 8 6 1 8 3 8 7 2 3

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1 1 5 6 3 8 1 2 4 5

Single ChannelQueue(6/10) Table4:Simulationrun2:Servicetime determination

Random Digits
85 10 74 53 17 79 91 67 89 38
Time since Custom last arrival er (minutes) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 -8 6 1 8 3 8 7 2 3 1 1 5 6 3 8 1 2 4 5 Arrival time 0 8
(8+6)= 14

Service time (minutes) 4 1 4 3 2 4 5 4 5 3 3 5 4 1 5 4 3 3 2 3 Total= 68

Table5:Simulationtable forQUEUEING
Service start time 0 8 14 18 23 26 34 41 45 50 53 56 61 65 66 71 75 78 81 83 Length of time customer waits in queue (minutes) 0 0 0
(18-15)=

Service Ends 4 9 18

Time that customer spends in system (minutes) 4 1 4 (3+3)=6 2 4 5 4 7 7 9 13 12 7 9 5 7 8 6 4 Total= 124

Idle time of server (minutes) 0

(8-4)=
(14-9)=

Customer 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Service Time
(minutes) 4 1 4 3 2 4 5 4 5 3

Customer 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Random Digits 32 94 79 84 79 84 52 55 30 50

Service Time
(minutes)

4 5

3 5 4 1 5 4 3 3 2 3

15 23 26 34 41 43 46 47 48 53 59 62 70 71 73 77 82

21 25 30 39 45 50 53 56 61 65 66 71 75 78 81 83 86

0
(23-21)=2

0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 8 6 4 1 4 5 4 1 Total = 56 #customer 13

4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total= 17

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SingleChannelQueue(8/10)
1. Average waiting time for a customer (min)

SingleChannelQueue(9/10)
Average service time (min) 4.

SimulationFindings(1/2)

SimulationFindings(2/2)
total service time (min) total number of customers 68 20 3.4min
E(s) S.p(s) s0 E(s) 1(0.1) 2(0.2) 3(0.3) 4(0.25) 5(0.10) 6(0.05) 3.2min

total time customers wait in queue (min) 56 2.8 min total number of customers 20

Expectedservicetime,

2.Probality that a customer has to wait in the queue

number of customers who wait 13 0.65 total number of customers 20

3.

The proportion of idle time of the server 17 total idle time of server 0.2 total run time of Simulation 86
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InthissimulationitisshownthatE(s)islowerthanaverage. Questionis:howitcanbecloser?the system The average time a customer spends in 5.

total time customers spend in the system (min) total number of customers 124 20 6.2minutes

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Single ChannelQueue(10/10) NumberofCustomerintheQueue (Graphicalrepresentation) SingleChannelQueue(10/10) Graphicalrepresentationofsimulation

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