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Afghanistan
Week 19 08 May 2012

Review

Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Economic Development Governance & Rule of Law Security & Force Protection Social & Strategic Infrastructure

This document provides a weekly overview of developments in Afghanistan from 01 07 May 2012, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org.

Economic Development

Steven A. Zyck steve.zyck@cimicweb.org

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euters outlines the case of the Milli Boot Factory outside of Kabul, which is on the verge of closing after losing its primary customer the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The Afghan government reportedly cancelled a contract with the company, first agreed by the US government, to provide leather boots to the ANSF. American officials had previously hailed the factory as a major success. The company had been slated to receive approximately USD 40 million per year to provide boots to the ANSF. However, when the United States handed over procurement responsibilities to the Afghan government, the Afghan ministries of defence and interior awarded the boot contract to Chinese and Pakistani firms. The Chinese firm is selling boots to the ANSF for only USD 22 per pair as opposed to the price of USD 62 charged by the Milli Boot Factory. Fargad Saffi, the owner of the Milli Boot Factory, has been forced to fire his 700-person workforce and is grappling what to do with USD 30 million in un-used raw materials. The problems experienced by Saffi and his company could potentially become more common, says Reuters. International forces in Afghanistan adopted an Afghan First policy in 2010 which impelled the military to procure materials locally where possible. This policy is, according to Reuters, credited with creating 15,000 new jobs in Afghanistan and potentially denying the insurgency added recruits. However, the Afghan government does not necessarily hold such a policy, and many Afghan companies which supplied the ANSF and other internationally-funded activities are now increasingly concerned that they will experience a decline in business similar to the one facing the Milli Boot Factory. The withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan is negatively impacting foreign investment in the country, according to a senior official at the Afghanistan Investment Support Agency (AISA) interviewed by Tolo News. AISA Investment Promotion Director Rohullah Ahmadzai says his agency has noticed a decline in foreign direct investment since 2011, when the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) announced it would be transferring security responsibility to the Afghan government and the ANSF by 2014. Providing an example of investors declining willingness to engage with Afghanistan, Ahmadzai notes one multinational joint venture which appears to have withdrawn a proposal to develop an industrial park focused on agriculturYou Are Reading the al processing. Tolo News also reports that Afghanistans Minister of Commerce and Industries, Anwar ul Haq Ahady, and the Iranian Ambassador to Afghanistan, Abolfazl Zohrevand, signed an agreement on 02 May. Under the agreement, Afghan traders will be able to use the Iranian

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Humanitarian Update Food security is expected to remain stable throughout Afghanistan through September, according to the latest Food Security Outlook report for Afghanistan produced by the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). The wheat harvest is likely to be average, and the country has received average to above-average levels of rainfall. Pockets of food insecurity will, however, likely be found in Badakhshan province and small parts of north-western Afghanistan. Rural economic conditions may improve given rising livestock prices and the increasing value of wage labour. Compensation for agricultural labour is up 50%.

port at Chabahar to import and export goods. Approximately 50 hectares of land are being allocated near the port for use by Afghan traders. Zohrevand had the following to say about the agreement: The outcome of this agreement is not only positive for Afghanistan and Iran relations, we also expect it to help the joint cooperation of Afghan and Iran traders so they can expand through cooperation to the Middle East and Asia. The Iranian ambassador indicated that Afghanistan had applied for rights to use Chabahar port and that this agreement is the outcome of that application process. Regional economic cooperation was also the subject of an article from The Hindu Business Line. The Indian government will soon be hosting a meeting of regional investors in order to encourage them to invest in Afghanistan. According to an Indian government official, [t]he meeting will be held before the Tokyo meeting on Afghanistan. The Delhi meeting will act as a sort of the bridge between the earlier Istanbul meeting on Afghanistan and the Tokyo meeting. Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna also instructed working groups on economic cooperation, capacity development and socio-cultural development which were recently established between India and Afghanistan to meet in the near future. Over the past nine months, Pakistan exported more than USD 1 billion in goods to Afghanistan but imported less than USD 7 million from Afghanistan, according to Dawn.1 Pakistan currently exports more goods to Afghanistan than to its much larger neighbours, India and Iran. Pakistan exports nearly as much to Afghanistan as it does to China. However, businesspeople in Pakistan have expressed concern that improving trade relations in the region could enable India to replace Pakistan as a major supplier of goods to Afghanistan. They indicated that, if India is ultimately permitted to ship goods to Afghanistan via Pakistan, Pakistani firms could reportedly lose approximately USD 2 billion per year in commerce.

Most likely food security scenario, July-September 2012

Source: FEWS NET

Lastly, according to Tolo News, the governor of Afghanistans Central Bank, Noorullah Delawari, told the Afghan parliament that shareholders owe approximately USD 250 million to Kabul Bank, which was taken over by the Afghan government in late 2010. The Central Bank has identified though not necessarily seized several properties owned by former Kabul Bank shareholders in Dubai.

Governance & Rule of Law

Stefanie Nijssen stefanie.nijssen@cimicweb.org

he US and Afghan governments have signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) outlining relations between the two countries after 2014, according to Voice of America (VoA) News. US President Obama signed the agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai during an unannounced visit to Kabul on 01 May. Topics covered in the agreement include government reform, free and transparent elections and the elimination of corruption, according to Tolo News. The SPA also indicates that foreign interference in Afghanistans electoral processes must be avoided, President Karzai said. The SPA will be sent to the Afghan parliament for approval by both the Wolesi Jirga (upper house) and Meshrano Jirga (lower house). While the Haq Wa Adalat party welcomed the agreement, two major opposition groupings, the Afghanistan National Front and the National Coalition, criticised the SPA, according to Pajhwok Afghan News. The opposition parties said the agreement was signed in a rush without consulting political parties or considering recommendations made by the Loya Jirga. Afghan lawmaker Shukria Barekzai says [i]t is very early to say that the parliament may pass [the SPA] or not. According to the aforementioned VoA News article, Kabul-based independent researcher Omar Sharifi says that the SPA sends a strong message that the international community will remain engaged and prevent a return to the sort of civil war that tore Afghanistan apart for part of the 1990s. However, the Taliban and Hezb-e Islami both denounced the Agreement, according to Pajhwok. The Taliban said the Afghan government does not have the authority to sign an accord that legalises a foreign presence in Afghanistan. A Taliban statement said the following: The agreement will create more conflicts, insecurity and political instability. Meanwhile, a Hezb-e Islami spokesman, Ghairat Baheer, told Pajhwok that [n]o respect has been shown to the opinion of Afghans in the establishment of the SPA.
1

The Nation cited a higher figure, indicating that trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan is worth approximately USD 2.2 billion per year.

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Afghanistans relationship with India was discussed on 01 May at a meeting between Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul and senior government officials in New Delhi, according to The Washington Post. Rassoul met with his Indian counterpart, SM Krishna, to discuss elements of the strategic agreement between the two countries which was signed in October 2011; the bilateral agreement was recently approved by both houses of the Afghan parliament, according to Outlook Afghanistan. Krishna remarked that Afghanistans security was of extreme importance to India because the security of both nations is intertwined. The pact signed between the two countries last October addressed such security concerns and included an offer for India to train Afghan forces. The pact also covered issues such as trade, economic cooperation and education. The US government has for several years been secretly releasing high-level detainees from a military prison in Afghanistan as part of negotiations with insurgent groups, unnamed US officials tell The Washington Post. The article states that the strategic release programme aims to quell violence in concentrated areas. In some cases the programme requires that former detainees maintain their connections with insurgent group so they can use these relationships to further peace-building efforts. Lieutenant Colonel Jimmie Cummings, a spokesman for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), told Pajhwok the process has specific criteria. He stated the following: These cases are extremely rare and are an exception. Detainees are not used as bargaining chips in restive provinces, but are considered when the release of a detainee enables better governance, elevates the capacity of Afghan government and can contribute to building trust between fractious tribes. Members of the Taliban who want to negotiate with the Afghan government will be protected by a new commission, Afghan officials tell Tolo News. The joint commission, made up of officials from Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States, will protect Taliban members who are willing to engage in peace talks, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Janan Mosazai said. This comes amid recent news reports which suggest that several Taliban commanders engaging in peace talks with the Afghan government have either been threatened or killed.

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Bloomberg reports that the US government is renewing efforts to stem corruption in Afghanistan. The US government steers funding to Afghan ministries deemed to be effective and away from those that fail to meet certain standards, such as the Ministry of Transportation, according to an unnamed US State Department official. 2 Steven Trent, the acting Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), wrote in a 30 April quarterly report to the US Congress that 30% of his offices investigations involve public corruption and bribery. During the first three months of 2012, Trents office worked with other US and Afghan law enforcement offices to recover USD 446,000 in stolen fuel and USD 175,000 in cash bribes. The US government shut down one project that was using Afghan officials to review corruption cases; some Afghan personnel involved in the project were reportedly using their positions to gain ideas on how to cheat, according to an unnamed government official. In related news, the Afghan Attorney Generals Office (AGO) detained at least 13 government officials, including some high-level figures, in connection with corruption, Khaama Press states. Afghan Finance Ministry officials said the detained individuals can resume their duties if the charges against them are not proven. An Afghan media-focused NGO, Nai, marked World Press Freedom Day on 03 May by publishing a report indicating that dozens of journalists and reporters continue to be threatened by government officials, Taliban militants and others groups, Ariana states. Reuters reports that representatives of Afghanistans media industry are asking the government to protect the rights of journalists. While media freedoms are specified within the Afghan constitution, the relatively large press corps can face intimidation, abduction or even death for reporting on issues such as corruption and other controversial topics. Editor-in-chief for Pajhwok, Danish Karokhil, told Reuters that three of their reporters have been killed over the last decade. Some government officials acknowledge that authorities are not doing enough. Deputy Minister of Information and Culture Deen Mohammad Mubarez Rashidi, for instance, told a ceremony honouring slain radio journalist Sadim Khan Bhadurzoy that [t]he Afghan government simply needs to do more to protect media freedoms. Bhadurzoy was kidnapped and beheaded in Paktika province in February; no one has yet been arrested in connection with his murder. Some media organisations also hold back from publishing stories they know will attract the governments ire. Sediq Zalique, head of investigative reporting at a national daily newspaper in Afghanistan, told Reuters he received threatening phone calls after publishing articles revealing corruption and drug-running by public officials. In related news, Amnesty International launched a campaign this week for the release of an Afghan journalist, Nasto Naderi, who had been held without charge since 21 April, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). The AGO said the reporter was serving a short jail sentence for drinking alcohol and is also facing charges for making false accusations against government officials. According to Tolo News, President Karzai said the decision on whether to hold the presidential elections a year early continues to be reviewed and that any decision will respect Afghanistans laws. He disputed claims that he might be re-nominated for the presidency.

The article particularly highlights the following ministries as being strong performers: Mines, Finance and Foreign Affairs.

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Referring to the fact that Afghan presidents are limited to two terms in office, President Karzai stated: I am not nominated and I cant be nominated for this presidential election. In closely related news, major opposition parties say President Karzai should resign if he attempts to hold elections ahead of the current schedule, Ariana reports. The National Coalition of Afghanistan and the Afghan National Front say expediting or delaying the presidential elections is forbidden under the Afghan constitution. The in-laws of Sahar Gul, the young Afghan bride whose abuse at the hands of her in-laws attracted international media attention in December 2011, have been sentenced to 10 years in prison, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Police are still looking for Guls husband and brother, both of whom are suspects in the case. Outlook Afghanistan reports that the Wolesi Jirga will start taking disciplinary action next month against absentee lawmakers. Throughout April, 43 members of the lower house of the Afghan parliament were absent. One official said that absentee lawmakers had previously not been held accountable but noted that they could now face disciplinary action at the end of each month.

Security & Force Protection

Mark Checchia mark.checchia@cimicweb.org

even Afghans were killed when a suicide bomber attacked the Green Village compound, which houses foreign contractors in Kabul, on 02 May, hours after US President Barack Obama flew out of the country, United Press International reports. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) stated that all attackers were dead but did not specify the number, according to FirstPost. The Los Angeles Times says the insurgents were covered in burqas which hid their weapons. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. On that same day in Kabul, a Pakistani man whose truck was packed with explosives was arrested, Tolo News reports. A spokesman for Afghanistans National Directorate of Security (NDS) said [t]he man who wanted to carry out a suicide attack in Kabul city was arrested by Afghan security troops in Pul-e-Charkhi in east of Kabul. Kabuls security posture was elevated, with a larger number of police in full combat gear stationed on the major roads, after the Taliban announced they would launch a spring offensive across Afghanistan starting in early May. Rahmatullah Nabil, chief of the NDS, urged Pakistans tribal chiefs to prevent boys from learning to be insurgents at religious schools, Tolo News reports. Nabil asserts that some of the more than 5,000 religious schools in Pakistan are teaching boys to be suicide attackers. He said in an address to the Afghan senate that [i]nstead they should learn computers programs. Nabil warned that the presence of insurgent centres on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border would lead to a continuation of insecurity. The New York Times reports that ISAF has admitted responsibility and expressed regret for an airstrike that killed six members of a family in Helmand province, officials confirmed on 07 May. The provincial governors spokesman, Dawoud Ahmadi, said an investigation had determined that a family home had been mistakenly targeted by an American airstrike, which had been called to counter a Taliban attack. The US regional commander, Major General Charles M. Gurganus apologised for the mistaken attack, Mr. Ahmadi said. A US military spokesman in Helmand stated: We expressed regret over the incident, and were investigating to determine how this happened. We are deeply saddened by any civilian death and particularly regret an incident where civilians are killed. The Soviets had considerable time to shape the Afghan security sector, and that legacy lives on in many of the senior officers, according to The News Tribune. However, some Afghan security personnel find that the US trainers who now share their knowledge have a much lighter touch. It used to be the other army would tell the Afghans what to do, said Major General Mohammed Hashim, who has served in the Afghan security services for 31 years. The Americans just come up with recommendations. The Americans work side by side with the ANSF, he continued. The US trainers are described as cultivating creativity in military operations. The ANSF are working in a modern operations centre, suited to the Afghan context, which is equipped with technology to monitor events and provide vital information to senior officers. At a seminar on solving police problems in Kabul on 03 May, Minister of the Interior Bismillah Mohammadi said Police will be drawn from war after the year 2014 and then they will focus on their real duties, i.e. enforcement of law and order, Ariana News reports. Mohammadi is seeking help and support from the international community to enable the police to return to their primary role in society after years of engaging with counter-insurgency efforts. He said that the international communitys help in training and equipping the national police has been successful, but noted that problems remain in areas such as border protection, intelligence and forensics. Defence Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak further noted that the Afghan National Army (ANA) will require the help of the Afghan National Police (ANP) and international forces after 2014. Wardak added that the police may return to strictly law enforcement tasks after terrorist attacks are less persistent. A gunman in an ANA uniform shot and killed an ISAF service member in southern Afghanistan on 06 May, according to CNN. Coalition forces returned fire, and the attacker was killed. ISAF released no further details. The same article describes another attack on 06 May in which a vehicle carrying US troops struck a roadside bomb in Paktiya province. One American was killed, and two others were wounded. Lastly, an explosion killed three US troops and injured a further two in Ghazni province on 07 May, CNN states. An un-named Western official said the bombing happened just south of a base in Ghazni. The explosion reportedly blew up the soldiers vehicle.

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Social & Strategic Infrastructure

Rainer Gonzalez rainer.gonzalez@cimicweb.org

A recent article by the Hindustan Times confirms that India is officially withdrawing from the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project. The IPI project would have brought large quantities of gas from Irans southern Pars gas field through a 2,700-km pipeline to both Pakistan and India. India officially indicated that it withdrew from the project given the high gas price demanded by Iran. Other experts suggested an alternative motive for the decision. Indias former Minister of Petroleum, Mani Shankar Aiyar, said that India gave up on the project due in part due to international sanctions against countries doing business with Iran. Pakistan reportedly remains determined to move forward with a two-nation Iran-Pakistan (IP) pipeline which will end in Karachi, reports the Business Recorder. Pakistans decision to pursue the pipeline with Iran is reportedly motivated by the countrys energy shortages. Iran has already built 900 km of pipeline in the direction of Pakistan and would have to finish a remaining 200 km to reach the Pakistani border. Pakistan will have to invest an estimated USD 1.25 billion to complete its section of the IP pipeline, which will initially carry 22 million cubic meters of gas per day. That amount will progressively be increased to 50 million cubic meters per day. After seven years of operating, the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Laghman province is closing, and PRT personnel are handing over their tasks and responsibilities to the provincial administration, reports the US Air Force. Since 2005, when it was established, the PRTs mission has been to build governance and stability by working together with local government officials. One PRT member was quoted as saying that the Afghan officials are ready to do this on their own. In other news, Afghanistans National Security Council (NSC), chaired by the Afghan President Hamid Karzai, recognised the effective role of village councils in enabling education in the provinces by engaging with representatives of the insurgency, reports Pajhwok Afghan News. President Karzai says that closing schools only harms the Afghan people and that education is necessary for progress and prosperity in Afghanistan, reports Outlook Afghanistan. The NSC meeting came after 100 schools had been closed in Ghazni province due to insurgent threats. Similarly, in Nangarhar province, six schools had to close after Taliban members threatened to attack schools in retaliation for the arrest of a fellow insurgent in the remote district of Khogyani, says Tolo News. A delegation has been sent to the area to investigate; meanwhile, provincial council members in Nangarhar called upon the Taliban not to use schools for political or militant aims. Humanitarian Update Twenty-six people lost their lives, and 80 more are missing after flash floods hit a wedding ceremony in Sar-e Pul province, reports Pajhwok. According to officials with the Afghanistan Natural Disaster Management Authority, the incident occurred due to an overnight flood triggered by two days of heavy rain. Residents and local officials have launched a search operation, and rescue teams have been sent to the area. More than 160 Afghan asylum seekers held in Indonesia have been on hunger strike for almost four days. They demand to be transferred to Australia, reports the Agence France-Presse. The asylum seekers, 40 of whom had to be hospitalised, are all men aged 17 to 40. According to the article, they said they could not stay in the centre any longer and they wanted to be transferred to Australia to take up residency there. Some of the asylum seekers have been locked in Indonesian prisons for more than two years.

More than 100 youths participated in the entrance exam for the Nai Media Institute, a training facility supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The Institute provides practical training for aspiring journalists, broadcasters and media managers, according to a USAID press release. Once they have completed the curriculum, which covers practical knowledge and skills related to radio, television and new media, the students will be awarded a Diploma in Media. In addition, a number of individual social and infrastructure developments were reported during the past week: a. While inaugurating a school, the Turkish Ambassador to Afghanistan, Basat ztrk, announced that his country will keep supporting Afghanistans education sector, reports Pajhwok. According to Ozturk, there are 5,600 students studying at private high schools funded by a Turkish foundation; these schools employ 528 teachers and 150 Turkish nationals. Residents from Helmand province will contribute AFN 2.7 million to repair the historic palaces of Dar-ul Aman and Tak Baik in Kabul, reports Pajhwok. The funds have been collected from government officials, traders, police and army personnel, students and others. Residents of Shiberghan, the capital of Jowzjan province, participated in a campaign to clean the city and remove mud and sand brought by the recent floods, reports Pajhwok. In exchange, each of the 576 workers will receive 50 kg of wheat, four litres of cooking oil, six kg of pulses and one kg of salt. Approximately 4.5 km of roads in Uruzgan and 1.5 km of roads in Kandahar have been inaugurated after being paved, reports Pajhwok. The work in Uruzgan was funded by the Australian PRT. The road works in Kandahar were undertaken with funding from the provincial government. A new girls school with a capacity of 500 students was inaugurated in Jowzjan, says Pajhwok. The new school has been funded by the Swedish government in conjunction with the United Nations Childrens Fund at a cost of USD 120,000.

b.

c.

d.

e.

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Recent Readings & Resources

Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement Between The United States of America And The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, 02 May 2012. Afghanistan Price Bulletin, April 2012, Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United States Agency for International Development, April 2012. U.S. Military Information Operations in Afghanistan: Effectiveness of Psychological Operations 20012010, RAND Corporation, 2012, by Arturo Munoz. Local institutions, livelihoods and vulnerability: lessons from Afghanistan, Humanitarian Policy Group Working Paper, Overseas Development Institute, April 2012, by Adam Pain and Paula Kantor.

Afghanistan Events Calendar

Agricultural Development for Afghanistan Pre-Deployment Training. The United States Department of Agriculture (www.usda.gov) and a consortium of American universities deliver this training. The curriculum will meet the needs of all deploying United States Government personnel in support of the USG Agriculture Strategy in Afghanistan. The training is for United States Government personnel and will take place in Fresno, California on 18-23 June. Participants will be enrolled on a first come first serve basis. Contact Ryan Brewster, US Department of Agriculture, at ryan.brewster@fas.usda.gov for further information.

If you are a CFC account-holder and would like your event notice or publication to appear here, please send all relevant details to Afghanistan@cimicweb.org. The CFC is not obliged to print information regarding publications or events it receives, and the CFC retains the right to revise notices for clarity and appropriateness. Any notices submitted for publication in the Afghanistan Review newsletter should be relevant to Afghanistan and to the CFCs mission as a knowledge management and information sharing institution.

ENGAGE WITH US 08 May 2012

Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC)

afghanistan@cimicweb.org

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