Binomial Distribution

Lecture 11 Binomial Probability Distribution
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Reading Assignments: Textbook: Read Chapter 6.2 (pg. 272 - 283)
Learning Objectives:

How to determine if a probability experiment is a binomial experiment. How to find binomial probabilities using the binomial probability formula. How to find binomial probabilities using calculator. How to find the mean and standard deviation of a binomial probability distribution. How to use binomial distribution to solve business problems.
Dr. Raphael Djabatey
There are many probability experiments for which the results of each trial can be reduced to two outcomes: success or failure. Probability experiments such as these are called binomial experiment.
a basket ball player attempts a free throw, he or she either makes the basket or does not. A product is classified as either acceptable or not acceptable by the quality control department. A company makes a profit or not. You win a lottery or not. You survive a surgery or not. A sales calls results in the customer either purchasing the product or not purchasing the product. A jury may return a guilty or not guilty verdict.
Dr. Raphael Djabatey 3
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution function with many every day applications. A binomial experimental process must satisfy the following five conditions: 1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials set forth in advance. 2. There are two possible outcomes in each trial result - success or failure. 3. The probability of a success and failures remains the same for each trial. 4. The trials are independent. The outcome of one trial has no effect on subsequent trials. 5. The random variable (x) is the result of counts of the number of success trials.
Probability of Success p = probability of a success P(S) = p
Probability of Failure q = probability of a failures P(F) = 1 p = q
n x p q p(x)
= = = = =
the fixed number of trials. specific number of success in n trials. probability of success in one of the n trials. probability of failure in one of the n trials. probability of getting exactly x successes among the n trials.
You took a test which consists of 20 multiple-choice questions. Each question has five choice answers but only one correct answer. What is the probability that you will select correct answer to 14 questions.
Probability of Success p = probability of a success P(S) = 0.20 Probability of Failure P(F) = 1 0.20 = 0.80 q = probability of a failure
n x p
= the fixed number of trials (20). = specific number of success in n trials (14). = probability of success in one of the n trials (0.20).
Sampling without replacement involves dependent events, which violates the second requirement in the preceding definition. However, it is a rule of thumb that if the sample is very small relative to the population size, the difference in results will be negligible if we treat the trials as independent, even though they are actually dependent. When sampling without replacement, the events can be considered to be independent if the sample size is no more than 5% of the population size. There are three methods for finding probabilities in a binomial experiment. The first method involves calculations using the binomial probability formula. The second method involves the use of binomial distribution table. The third method involves of statistical software or calculator.
FORMULA METHOD:
P(X) = n! (n - X)! X! (px) (1 - p)n-x
CALCULATOR METHOD:
Select STAT menu Press F5 to select DIST Press F5 to select BINM Press F1 to select Bpd For Data, press F2 to select VAR to input a variable For X, enter the value For Numtrial, enter the total sample size For p, enter the probability of success Press EXE
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that three of these cards will contain an error. Binomial Distribution: P(X) = n! px (1 - p) n-x X!(n - X)!
8! (0.10)3(1 - 0.10)8 - 3 3!(8 - 3)! 8! 3!5! = (8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) (0.001)(0.5905) (3)(2)(1)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 0.0331 or 3.31%
Variable (X) Sample Size (n) Probability (P)
=3 =8 = 0.10
P(1)
(0.10)3(0.90)5
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that three of these cards will contain an error.
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F1 DIST BINM BPD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P)
=3 =8 = 0.10
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
Enter Enter Enter EXE
3 8 0.10 Answer = 0.0331 OR 3.31%
10
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that only one card will contain an error.
=1 =8 = 0.10
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
1 8 0.10 Answer = 0.3826 OR 38.26%
11
The likelihood that an inventory card will contain an error is 10%. Suppose you have 8 inventory cards, what is the probability that none of the cards will contain an error.
=0 =8 = 0.10
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
0 8 0.10 Answer = 0.4305 OR 43.05%
12
There are five daily flights from Toronto to New York. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.20. What is the probability that two of the flights will arrive late today?
=2 =5 = 0.20
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
2 5 0.20 Answer = 0.2048 OR 20.48%
13
A warranty record shows the probability that a new car needs a warranty repair within first year of purchase is 0.15. If a sample of 5 new cars is selected, what is the probability that
Var (X) Prob.
Using LIST
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 =5 = 0.15
Data
Press
F1 for LIST
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
LIST Numtrial P Save Res:
Enter Enter Enter Enter Press
LIST 1 5 0.15 LIST 2 EXE
LIST 2 0.4437 0.3915 0.1382 0.0244 0.0022 0.0001

14
1 2 3 4 5 none will need a warranty repair? at least three will need a warranty repair? at most two will need a warranty repair? all will need a warranty repair? = 0.4437 0.0244 + 0.0022 + 0.0001 = 0.0267 0.04437 + 0.3915 + 0.1382 = 0.9734 = 0.0001 0.1382 + 0.0244 + 0.0022 = 0.1647
between two and four will need a warranty repair?
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
LIST 2 0.4437 0.3915 0.1382 0.0244 0.0022 0.0001
15
1 2 3 4 three will not need a warranty repair three or more will not need a warranty repair? less than two will not need a warranty repair? all will not need a warranty repair? = 0.1382 0.1382 + 0.3915 + 0.4437 = 0.9734 0.0001 + 0.0022 = 0.0023 = 0.4437
Using LIST
Variable (X) Sample Size (n) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 =5 = 0.85
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
LIST 2 0.0001 0.0022 0.0244 0.1382 0.3915 0.4437
16
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that 50 or fewer drivers are wearing seat belts?
Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F2 DIST BINM BCD
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 250 = 80 = 0.60
Using CUMULATIVE function (BCP)
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
50 80 0.60 Answer = 0.7139 OR 71.39%
17 Dr. Raphael Djabatey
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that less than 48 drivers are wearing seat belts?
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2 ..47 = 80 = 0.60
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
47 80 0.60 Answer = 0.4516 OR 45.16%
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that at least 45 drivers are wearing seat belts?
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 45, 46, 47.80 = 80 = 0.60
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
44 80 0.60
0.2115 Answer = 1 0.2115 = 0.7885
OR
78.85%
10
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that more than 45 drivers are wearing seat belts?
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 46, 47, 48.80 = 80 = 0.60
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
45 80 0.60
0.2825 Answer = 1 0.2825 = 0.7175
OR
71.75%
10
11
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that at most 30 drivers are not wearing seat belts?
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, . 30 = 80 = 0.40
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
30 80 0.40
Answer = 0.3687
OR
36.87%
12
A survey revealed that three in five student drivers use their seat belts. A sample of 80 student drivers is selected. What is the probability that fewer than 30 drivers are not wearing seat belts?
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 0, 1, 2, . 29 = 80 = 0.40
Data
Press
F2 for VAR
X Numtrial P Press
29 80 0.40
Answer = 0.2861
OR
28.61%
11
13
A statistics quiz consists of 50 multiple-choice questions, each with 4 possible answers. For a student who makes random guesses for all of the answers:
Find the probability that the student will get less than 16 correct answers.
Using Cumulative Function
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 15 = 50 = 0.25
0.8369
Find the probability that the student will get at least 20 correct answers.
Using Cumulative Function
Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P) = 19 = 50 = 0.25
1 0. 9861 = 0.0139
14
A statistics quiz consists of 50 multiple-choice questions, each with 4 possible answers. For a student who makes random guesses for all of the answers:
Var (X) BPD BCP
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X)
= 0.25 =5 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
LIST 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
LIST 2 0.2373 0.3955 0.2636 0.0878 0.0146 0.0010
LIST 3 0.2373 0.6328 0.8964 0.9843 0.9990 1.0000
1 2 3 4
less than three of the answers are correct three or less of the answers are correct ? at most one of the answers are correct? at least four of the answers are correct?
= 0.8964 = 0.9843 = 0.6328 = 1 0.9843 = 0.0157

24
12
15
There are five daily flights from Toronto to New York. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.20.
What is the probability that two flights will arrive late today? What is the expected (mean) number of late flights? What is the standard deviation?
Variable (X) Sample (N) Probability (P) Mean ()
=2 =5 = 0.20 = (n) (p) = (5) (0.20) = 1
20.48%
Standard Deviation() = (n)(p)(1 p) = (5)(0.20)(1 0.20) = 0.8 = 0.8944

16
A statistics quiz consists of 10 multiple-choice questions, each with 5 possible answers. For someone who makes random guesses for all of the answers, find the probability of passing if the minimum passing grade is 60%.
0.007
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.20 = 10 = 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
A quality control manager of a meat packaging plant has determined that 15 of every 50 meat packages have defective labels. If the meat packaging equipment processes 8 meat packages at any given time. What are the chances that more than four meat packages will have a defective label?
0.058
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.30 = 8 = 5, 6, 7, 8
26
13
17
A study of weight loss between male and female shows that 40% of females lost 5 pounds in the first month of a weight loss program as compared with 60% of males who lost the same amount of weight in the first month. Suppose five females are selected, what is the probability that only one female will lose 5 pounds in the first month?
0.259
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.40 = 5 = 1
Suppose six males are selected, what are the chances that less than three males will lose 5 pounds in the first month?
0. 179
Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X) = 0.60 = 6 = 0, 1, 2
27
14

Binomial Distribution

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Исходное описание:

Оригинальное название

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Binomial Distribution

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Lecture 11 Binomial Probability Distribution

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Probability of Failure q = probability of a failures P(F) = 1 p = q

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Variable (X) Sample Size (n) Probability (P)

Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F1 DIST BINM BPD

Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

3 8 0.10 Answer = 0.0331 OR 3.31%

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F1 DIST BINM BPD

Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

1 8 0.10 Answer = 0.3826 OR 38.26%

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F1 DIST BINM BPD

Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

0 8 0.10 Answer = 0.4305 OR 43.05%

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Calculator Select F5 Select F5 Select F1 DIST BINM BPD

Variable (X) Sample Size (N) Probability (P)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

2 5 0.20 Answer = 0.2048 OR 20.48%

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

LIST Numtrial P Save Res:

Enter Enter Enter Enter Press

LIST 1 5 0.15 LIST 2 EXE

LIST 2 0.4437 0.3915 0.1382 0.0244 0.0022 0.0001

between two and four will need a warranty repair?

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

LIST 2 0.4437 0.3915 0.1382 0.0244 0.0022 0.0001

LIST 2 0.0001 0.0022 0.0244 0.1382 0.3915 0.4437

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Using CUMULATIVE function (BCP)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

50 80 0.60 Answer = 0.7139 OR 71.39%

17 Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Using CUMULATIVE function (BCP)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

47 80 0.60 Answer = 0.4516 OR 45.16%

18 Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Using CUMULATIVE function (BCP)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

0.2115 Answer = 1 0.2115 = 0.7885

Using CUMULATIVE function (BCP)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

0.2825 Answer = 1 0.2825 = 0.7175

Using CUMULATIVE function (BCP)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

Using CUMULATIVE function (BCP)

Enter Enter Enter EXE

23 Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Probability (P) Sample Size (n) Variable (X)

LIST 2 0.2373 0.3955 0.2636 0.0878 0.0146 0.0010

LIST 3 0.2373 0.6328 0.8964 0.9843 0.9990 1.0000

= 0.8964 = 0.9843 = 0.6328 = 1 0.9843 = 0.0157

Dr. Raphael Djabatey

Variable (X) Sample (N) Probability (P) Mean ()