UNIVERSITI TUNKU ABDUL RAHMAN ACADEMIC YEAR 2006/2007 SEPTEMBER EXAMINATION UCCM1203 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I WEDNESDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER

2006 TIME : 9.00AM 11.00AM (2 HOURS)

BACHELOR OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (HONS) COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKING BACHELOR OF SCIENCE (HONS) ACTUARIAL SCIENCE BACHELOR OF SCIENCE (HONS) APPLIED MATHEMATICS WITH COMPUTING YEAR ONE

Instructions to Candidates : Answer ALL questions. All questions carry equal marks.

This question paper consists of 4 questions on 5 printed pages.

2 UCCM1203 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I Q1. (a) A researcher in a particular city wishes to obtain information on the number of children in households that receive welfare support. A random sample of 300 households was selected from the welfare rolls of the city. (i) (ii) (iii) Identify the relevant population. What is the sample? (2 marks) (2 marks)

What is the variable of interest? Is it qualitative or quantitative (discrete or continuous)? (3 marks)

(b)

Consider three events A, B and C. The probabilities of the various intersections are shown in the table below. For example, P(ABC)= 0.10. B A A (i) (ii) C 0.05 0.13 C 0.10 0.15 C 0.12 0.18 B C 0.17 0.10 (3 marks)

Determine the probabilities P(AC) and P(C).

Find the conditional probability of B given that both A and C occur. (4 marks) Are events B and C independent? Explain. (4 marks)

(iii)

(c)

The body temperatures (in degrees Fahrenheit) of 100 healthy adults have a mean of 98.40F, a median of 98.00F, a range of 1.50F and a standard deviation of 0.62F. (i) Describe how the range and standard deviation of the data are affected if the same constant k is added to each value of the data set. (2 marks) Find the values of new mean and new standard deviation after each temperature has been converted to the Celsius scale. 5 (3 marks) [Hint: C = (F 32 ) ] 9
If it is found that one of the data 99.10F was wrongly recorded as 98.80F, could you determine the new value of median? If no, give a reason. Otherwise, find this value. (2 marks) [Total : 25 marks]

(ii)

(iii)

This question paper consists of 4 questions on 5 printed pages.

3 UCCM1203 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I Q2. (a) The following SPSS output shows the final examination scores of 80 students in a statistics course from the university A.
Statistics Scores N Mean Variance Range Minimum Maximum Percentiles Valid Missing 80 0 58.00 81.00 69 20 89 47.50 60.00 70.00 Scores Highest 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Extreme Values Case Value Number 80 89 79 88 78 86 77 83 74 79 1 20 2 23 3 24 4 31 5 31

25 50 75

Lowest

(i)

Draw a box-and-whisker plot for the data. Does this data contain any outliers? Justify your answer. (6 marks) Compute the Pearsons coefficient of skewness and comment on the shape of the distribution. Hence, find the percentage of students who scored between 40 and 76 marks. (6 marks) Find the value of the 5th percentile. (2 marks)

(ii)

(iii) (iv)

Suppose two students are randomly selected from this data. What is the probability that only one of them scored more than 80 marks? (4 marks)

(b)

A sample of 4 balls is to be selected at random from an urn containing 15 balls numbered 1 to 15, where six balls are green, five are white and four are black. (i) (ii) How many different samples can be selected? (3marks)

How many samples can be selected that contain at least one white ball? (4 marks) [Total : 25 marks]

This question paper consists of 4 questions on 5 printed pages.

4 UCCM1203 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I Q3. (a) A discrete random variable X has a probability mass function given by k (2-x) f(x) = k x 0 , x = -2, -1, 0 , x = 1, 2 , elsewhere 2 . 21

(i) (ii)

Show that the value of k is

(3 marks)

Find the cumulative distribution of X. Then, use it to evaluate (5 marks) P( X 1).

(b)

Let X be a geometric random variable with parameter p and probability mass function f(x) = qx-1p (i) , x = 1, 2, 3, where q = 1- p.

Show that the moment generating function is pet , t < - lnq. M X (t ) = 1 qet Using the result from (i), find E(X2).

(5 marks) (5 marks)

(ii)

(c)

(i)

On the average, 30 calls per hours arrive at an office. Find the probability that no calls arrive in a three-minute period. (4 marks) The probability that a person will believe a rumor about the transgressions of a certain politician is 0.70. Find the probability that the tenth person to hear the rumor will be the seventh to believe it. (3 marks) [Total : 25 marks]

(ii)

This question paper consists of 4 questions on 5 printed pages.

5 UCCM1203 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I Q4. (a) A continuous random variable X is uniformly distributed on [1, a] with a mean of 2.5. (i) (ii) Find the value of a. Find the probability density function for Y = 2lnX. Hence, evaluate E(Y). (4 marks)

(9 marks)

(b)

Suppose the duration of double-free operation of a new vacuum cleaner is normally distributed with a mean of 530 days and a standard deviation of 100 days. (i) What is the probability that the vacuum cleaner will work for at least 2 years without trouble? (3 marks) The company wishes to set the warranty period so that no more than 10% of the vacuum cleaners would need repair services while under warranty. How long a warranty period must be set? (5 marks)

(ii)

(c)

In a certain city, the daily consumption of electric power (in millions of kilowatt-hours) can be treated as a random variable having a gamma distribution with =2 and =3. If the power plant of this city has a daily capacity of 10 million kilowatt-hours, what is the probability that this power supply is inadequate on any given day? (4 marks) x 1 [Hint: f ( x) = x 1e , x > 0 ] ( ) [Total : 25marks]

This question paper consists of 4 questions on 5 printed pages.