METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Meteorol. Appl. (2010)

Published online in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/met.216
On meteorological droughts in tropical Pacic Islands:
time-series analysis of observed rainfall using Fiji
as a case study
Ravinesh C. Deo*
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, The University of Southern Queensland, Springeld QLD 4300, Australia
ABSTRACT: Analysis of historical droughts was undertaken by converting observed monthly rainfall over the period
19492008 to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The modied MannKendall test applied on monthly rainfall
showed statistically signicant downward trends at signicance level = 0.01. The Sens Slope, estimated from the time-
series, revealed statistically signicant decreases in annual rainfall ranging from 13 to 47 mm year
1
. Based on the SPI,
drought duration and severity was non-uniform across stations over the 60 year period. The strongest impacted stations
were located in western and northern Fiji where rainfall deciency for the period 19691988 led to a dramatic increase in
moderate and severe droughts. The return periods of annual rainfall were much longer at these stations relative to those
in outer-lying islands. While rainfall increased over the period 19892008, the actual amounts did not exceed 19491968
totals, conrming a net shift towards drier conditions since the 1950s. This study has demonstrated that SPI can be a
useful tool for diagnosis and monitoring meteorological droughts in tropical Pacic islands. Copyright 2010 Royal
Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS droughts in Fiji; standardized precipitation index; return periods; rainfall trends
Received 29 December 2009; Revised 10 May 2010; Accepted 24 May 2010
1. Introduction
Climate change due to elevated greenhouse gases, strato-
spheric ozone depletion and atmospheric aerosols has a
profound impact on global, regional and local hydro-
logical cycles (IPCC, 2007). As in other parts of the
tropics, the climate of the tropical Pacic is fragile
and responds rapidly to anthropogenic radiative forc-
ings. This increases vulnerability to extreme climatic
events such as droughts and ash oods with very high
condence (Mimura et al., 2007). In the foreseeable
future these islands are not immune from impacts of
sea level rise, increasing severity of tropical cyclones
and frequent storm surge (IPCC, 2007). Hay et al.
(2003) documented that the South Pacics climate
compared to earlier records during the 20
th
century
has become drier and warmer by 15% and 0.8

C,
respectively.
Rainfall in small tropical Pacic islands is highly vari-
able, both spatially and temporally, and uctuates on
daily, monthly and annual time-scales (Mataki et al.,
2006). These variations are mainly controlled by the
movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, lying
5

N, and the South Pacic Convergence Zone (SPCZ),

stretching east-southeast from Papua New Guinea to
* Correspondence to: Ravinesh C. Deo, Department of Mathematics,
Faculty of Science, The University of Southern Queensland, Springeld
QLD 4300, Australia.
E-mail: physrcd@yahoo.com; ravinesh.deo@usq.edu.au
Samoa (Basher and Zheng, 1998). The seasonal rainfall
is largely dependent on north to south movement of the
SPCZ and large-scale cloud bands associated with the
position of the ascending branch of the Walker Circula-
tion along the Equatorial Pacic, movement of tropical
upper tropospheric troughs, and surface mid-latitude sys-
tems such as cold fronts (Mataki et al., 2006). The IPCC
(2007) demonstrated a dramatic decrease in summer rain-
fall. While rainfall is projected to increase during winter,
this may not be sufcient to compensate the shortfalls.
The projections predict that a 10% reduction by 2050
would lead to a 20% reduction in the size of the freshwa-
ter lens in Kiribati (Christensen et al., 2007). The shift
towards extended periods of dry spells causes loss of
soil fertility which could impact negatively on agricul-
ture (IPCC, 2007). This could lead to economic losses
on the order of US$2352 million by 2050, equivalent
to 23% of Fijis GDP (World Bank, 2000).
The El Ni no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a
signicant role in determining the climate of small
tropical islands (Kumar et al., 2006). Being the hub of the
Pacic Ocean, Fiji enjoys tropical maritime conditions.
The group lying between 15 and 18

S and 175 and

177

W consists of over 300 islands. The limestone

islands are vulnerable to droughts and storm surges, while
larger islands are volcanic and have well-established
gullies and rivers. The southeast Trade Winds bring
rain to heavily rain forested eastern zones, leaving the
western (leeward) zone dry. The southeastern coasts and
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
R. C. DEO
high interiors experience persistent humid weather and
orographic rain (Lal, 2004). Dry spells last 34 months
and are associated with the ENSO cycle (Nicholls and
Wong, 1990) as the weakening of easterlies during an El
Ni no event due to the eastward shift of the SPCZ reduces
convection and cumulative rainfall.
Only a few studies have focussed on modelling and
analysis of Fijis past and future climate. In reviewing
output from a coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAG-
ICC; Wigley, 1994), Agrawala et al. (2003) noted a pro-
jected increase in temperature by 0.5

C by 2025 and
rainfall change by an appreciable magnitude but with no
denitive direction of change. Mataki et al. (2006) anal-
ysed climate trends from 1961 to 2006 for Nadi and Suva
(Fiji Islands), and found increasing trend of temperatures,
no denite trends in annual rainfall but a signicant inter-
annual variability in annual and summer rainfall. Studies
by Hayashi and Golder (1993) and Jones et al. (1998)
have shown that austral summers are often characterized
by relatively small sea-surface temperature anomalies in
the tropical Pacic compared to stronger warm and cold
episodes. During these summers there is a stronger link-
age between the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) and
extreme precipitation events in the western South Pacic
region (Jones and Weare, 1996). Lal et al. (2002) inves-
tigated the climatic response of Small Island States to
transient increases in anthropogenic forcing using a range
of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. An
area-averaged annual mean warming of 2

C by the
2050s was evident. However, an increase in daily rain-
fall intensity leading to more heavy rainfall events was
also projected. Risbey et al. (2002) used results from an
ensemble of ve GCMs to show a projected increase in
rainfall of 3.3% by 2025 and 9.7% by 2100, while
Feresi et al. (2000) demonstrated a projected change in
rainfall, but the direction of change was uncertain. Analy-
sis of observed datasets by Manton et al. (2001) revealed
signicant decreases in the number of rain days since
1961 throughout the western and central South Pacic
but increases in the north of French Polynesia and Fiji
Islands. Salinger et al. (2001) described the inuence of
the Inter-decadal Pacic Oscillation (IPO) on decadal
climate trends and inter-annual modulation of ENSO tele-
connections throughout the southwest Pacic. Their anal-
ysis for precipitation during June to July-August showed
increases in the far north Pacic, and decreases in the
Coral Sea and Fiji regions. The precipitation decreases
appeared to be consistent with rises in mean sea level
pressure (MSLP) over the Coral Sea, but large increases
in the northeast did not appear to be directly related
to MSLP.
Despite the occurrence of sequential droughts in the
Fiji Islands over the last few decades, limited studies
have investigated Fijis drought history. This could be
partly because droughts have salient features, with a
slow and periodic developmental phase, so timely and
accurate prediction is often not easy. In the absence
of modelling expertize, rainfall indices based on in situ
measurements can provide quantitative estimates of the
onset and withdrawal of meteorological droughts. This
article reports time-series analysis of monthly rainfall
to quantify severity and duration of droughts in the
tropical Pacic islands, using Fiji as a case study. A long-
term dataset (19492008) from geographically diverse
stations has been used to capture rainfall trends and
drought history for different regions in the Fiji Islands
by computing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
following McKee et al. (1993). The present study is the
rst to apply the SPI method to examine the drought
history of the Fiji Islands.
2. Data and analysis
Historical monthly rainfall measured at seven mete-
orological stations was extracted from the Compre-
hensive Pacic Rainfall Data Base (PACRAIN) for
the period 19492008 (Figure 1(b)). These data have
been quality checked for inhomogeneities and published
widely (e.g. He and Barnston, 1996; Grifths et al.,
2003). Supplementary data obtained from Fiji Mete-
orological Services (FMS) were used to complement
the PACRAIN database for cross-checking and further
validation. It was veried that these data comprised
climate records from Fijis Reference Climate Station
(RCS) network or the Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) Surface Network (GSN) (Peterson et al., 1997).
To ensure that rainfall records for the early 1950s did
not have signicant calibration inaccuracies, data from
only those GCOS stations which had less than 20% of
daily missing values were analysed. The selected sta-
tions had documented metadata consisting of a history
of site location, observing instruments and observing
practices.
This paper reports the cumulative monthly rain-
fall which is expected to be less affected by out-
liers compared to daily rainfall datasets. According
to Manton et al. (2001) these stations have a doc-
umented history of changes such as those involv-
ing instrumentation, observation practices and the sta-
tions immediate environment (metadata). As such,
the stations have a long, continuous and homoge-
neous record with minimum inuence from urbaniza-
tion, calibration inaccuracies and are generally considered
high-quality.
Rainfall percentiles were computed by sorting values in
ascending order with percentile order (p) for each value
being, p = (n/(N +1)) 100 where n = the order of
rainfall value. The standardized rainfall index (SPI)
was computed following McKee et al. (1993). Since
SPI is the standardized value of rainfall it allowed
comparison of droughts in climatically diverse regions.
Computing the SPI involved tting gamma probability
density functions to given distribution of rainfall. The
gamma distribution was dened by its probability density
function:
g(P) =
1

()
P
1
e
x/
(1)
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
DROUGHTS IN TROPICAL PACIFIC ISLANDS A CASE STUDY OF FIJI
(a)
(b)
Figure 1. (a) The South Pacic region showing the Fiji Islands, and (b) meteorological stations for Fiji Islands. Source of (a): http://www.
nationalgeographic.com/xpeditions/
The parameters, and were estimated using maxi-
mum likelihood solutions, where:
=
1
4A
_
1 +
_
1 +4A
3
_
(2)
and,
=

P
(3)
where A = ln(P)
_
ln(P)
_
/N, n = number of rain-
fall observations.
The cumulative probability was given by:
G(P) =
_
P
0
g(P)dP =
1

()
_
P
0
x
1
e
P/
dP (4)
Letting t = P/ the equation becomes an incomplete
gamma function:
G(P) =
1
()
_
t
0
t
1
e
t
dt (5)
Since the gamma function is undened for P = 0, the
cumulative probability becomes:
H(P) = q +(1 q) G(P) (6)
where q is the probability of a zero. The cumulative
probability H(P) was transformed to a standard normal
random variable with mean zero and variance of one,
which gave the SPI:
SPI = +[t
c
0
+c
1
t +c
2
t
2
1 +d
1
t +d
2
t
2
+d
3
t
2
], (7)
for 0.5 < H(P) < 1.0
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
R. C. DEO
and
SPI = [t
c
0
+c
1
t +c
2
t
2
1 +d
1
t +d
2
t
2
+d
3
t
2
], (8)
for 0 < H(P) < 0.5
for,
t =
_
ln
_
1
(H(P))
2
_
, for 0 < H(P) 0.5 (9)
and
t =
_
ln
_
1
(1.0 H(P))
2
_
, for 0.5 H(P) < 1.0 (10)
and c
0
= 2.515517, c
1
= 0.802853, c
2
= 0.010328,
d
1
= 1.432788, d
2
= 0.189269 and d
3
= 0.001308.
The drought part of the SPI range is split into
moderately dry (1.5 < SPI 1.0), severely dry
(1.5 SPI < 2.0) and extremely dry (SPI 2.0)
conditions (McKee et al., 1993). The categories of
drought months were dened by SPI 2.0 as extreme
drought month, 2.0 < SPI 1.5 as a severe drought
month and 1.5 < SPI 1.0 as a moderate drought
month.
The return period of total annual rainfall at each station
was computed to estimate the interval of time between
events of a given rainfall amount. This provided an
average estimate of time elapsed between two successive
realizations of a rainfall event in that year. The return
period, R, of any given rainfall amount was computed as:
R =
n +1
m
(11)
where n is the number of years on record, and m is the
rank of the rainfall event in consideration.
2.1. Statistical testing
The time-series data were subjected to the modied
MannKendall (MK) test to detect trends (Hirsch and
Slack, 1984). This procedure has been widely adopted
since Mann (1945) and Kendall (1975). The MK test
is a rank-based nonparametric procedure, capable of
accounting for missing values, serial correlation and
numbers below detection limits (Hirsch and Slack, 1984).
It is less affected by outliers, because its statistic is based
on sign of differences and not directly on the values
(Onnz and Bayazit, 2003). The probability (p) of MK
statistic (z) is estimated by:
p = 0.5 (|Z|)
_
(|Z|) =
1

2
_
|Z|
0
e
t
2
/2
dt
_
(12)
Trends are indicated by the sign of the Z-value, with
a positive showing an upward trend (Yue and Hashino,
2003). It is noteworthy that the MK test requires at least
four values in the time series, so the monthly dataset
spanning 60 years was sufciently large for signicance
testing. The Sens Slope was estimated to check mag-
nitudes of trends (Theil, 1950; Sen, 1968) by assuming
trends as linear such that f (t ) = Q(t ) +B. To compute
the Sens Slope, all pair-wise slopes for the particular
time-scales were calculated (Yue and Hashino, 2003).
Since Sens Slope is insensitive to outliers it was more
robust than the usual regression slopes, thus providing a
realistic measure of the rainfall trends.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Total rainfall accumulation
Figure 2 presents the monthly averaged rainfall. It is
immediately evident that rain accumulation per month
has a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. On
average, March appears to be the wettest and July the
driest month for all stations. The rainfall amounts for the
wettest to driest month are discernibly different among
stations, suggesting widespread variability in climatic
conditions throughout Fiji. A closer scrutiny shows that
during July, Rotuma experienced 63% of total rainfall
of March, whereas Ono-I-Lau 35%, Nacocolevu and
Udu Point 27%, and Nadi and Labasa only 1214%.
The signicant reduction in rain accumulation during July
for Nadi and Labasa indicates a marked shift to drier
conditions in western and northern Fiji, the regions of
major economic activity.
Figure 3 compares rainfall totals against percentiles for
March and July. For both months, there was a distinct
pattern in rain accumulation among stations. The wettest
month received almost twice as much rain compared to
the driest month. During the driest month the highest
rainfall total was recorded for Rotuma, followed by
Nausori, and the lowest for Nadi and Labasa over the
entire range of percentiles. The rainfall values recorded
at other stations had similarly low values, but higher
than those at Nadi. Interestingly, rainfall totals for Nadi
amounted to less than 50% of totals at Nausori for all
percentiles. Taken together, Figures 2 and 3 suggest that
drought severity in northern and western Fiji (i.e. Nadi
and Labasa) is probably the greatest compared to other
stations.
The monthly analysis has established distinctions in
rainfall variability across different percentiles. To exam-
ine historical changes, Figure 4 displays time series of
annual rainfall, together with the signicance of trends
in the data. As demonstrated by negative Z scores, all
stations experienced a generally decreasing trend. Note
that the strength of trend is depicted by the magnitude
of the Z score. The most rapidly decreasing trend is evi-
dent at Labasa with Z score 3.3, followed by Nadi
with Z score 3.1, while the weakest trend was found
at Rotuma with Z score 2.2. Identically downward
trends are found at Nacocolevu and Nausori, with Z score
2.9. The magnitude of mean change as demonstrated
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
DROUGHTS IN TROPICAL PACIFIC ISLANDS A CASE STUDY OF FIJI
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
D
e
c
e
m
b
e
r
month of the year
O
c
t
o
b
e
r
S
e
p
t
e
m
b
e
r
J
u
l
y
A
u
g
u
s
t
J
u
n
e
M
a
y
A
p
r
i
l
M
a
r
c
h
F
e
b
r
u
a
r
y
J
a
n
u
a
r
y
m
o
n
t
h
l
y

a
v
e
r
a
g
e
d

r
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
Figure 2. The monthly rainfall averaged over period 19492008. Symbols: lled triangle () Rotuma; empty circle ( ) Nadi; lled
circle ( ) Labasa; lled square ( ) Nausori; empty square ( ) Nacocolevu; solid line with no symbol ( ) Udu Point; cross ( )
Ono-I-Lau.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 20 40 60 80 100
percentiles
0 20 40 60 80 100
percentiles
c
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

r
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
(a) (b)
Figure 3. The cumulative monthly rainfall (mm) over the period 19492008 against percentiles: (a) wettest month (March), (b) driest month
(July). Symbols: lled triangle () Rotuma; empty circle ( ) Nadi; lled circle ( ) Labasa; lled square ( ) Nausori; empty square ( )
Nacocolevu; solid line with no symbol ( ) Udu Point; cross ( ) Ono-I-Lau.
by a Sens Slope 47.1 mm year
1
was the highest
for Labasa Mill, followed by 34.9 mm year
1
for
Nadi and 31.3 mm year
1
for Udu Point. Consistent
with weakest downward trend, Rotuma demonstrated the
smallest Sens Slope of 12.9 mm year
1
. In terms of
signicance, decreases at all stations except Rotuma were
statistically signicant at the 95% level of condence.
Figure 4 reveals that there was a marked de-
cline in rainfall from 1960 onwards. This suggests a
prevalence of extreme conditions, particularly in Nadi,
Labasa and Nacocolevu where changes were most
pronounced. For a closer examination, mean annual
rainfall is plotted in intervals of 19491968, 19691988
and 19892008 (Figure 5). Clearly, the data show much
higher rainfall during the rst 20 year period compared
to other periods. The rainfall at Nadi and Labasa oscil-
lated around 35004000 mm year
1
over 19491968.
Beyond 1968, the dramatic decrease resulted in aver-
age value of 10002000 mm year
1
. Although similar
trends were found at Nausori and Rotuma, decreases
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
R. C. DEO
0
2000
4000
6000
0
2000
4000
6000
0
2000
4000
6000
0
2000
4000
6000
0
2000
4000
6000
(a)
y
e
a
r
l
y

r
a
i
n
t
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
y
e
a
r
l
y

r
a
i
n
t
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
y
e
a
r
l
y

r
a
i
n
t
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
(b) (c)
0
2000
4000
6000
(d)
0
2000
4000
6000
(g)
1
9
5
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
9
5
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
9
5
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
(e) (f)
Figure 4. The time series of annual rainfall for the period 19492008. (a) Nadi (Sens Slope 34.9 mm year
1
, Z-value 3.1, p-value 0.002);
(b) Nausori (Sens Slope 27.6 mm year
1
, Z-value 2.9, p-value 0.004); (c) Rotuma (Sens Slope 12.9 mm year
1
, Z-value 2.2, p-value
0.026); (d) Labasa (Sens Slope 47.1 mm year
1
, Z-value 3.3, p-value 0.000); (e) Udu Point (Sens Slope 31.1 mm year
1
, Z-value 2.9,
p-value 0.003); (f) Ono-I-Lau (Sens Slope 20.9 mm year
1
, Z-value 4.4, p-value 0.000); (g) Nacocolevu (Sens Slope 27.1 mm year
1
,
Z-value 2.9, p-value 0.004). Note: dashed line denotes Sens Slope, negative Z-value shows a downward trend and p-value shows statistical
signicance of trend using the non-parametric MannKendall test.
were much smaller than those at Nadi and Labasa.
From 19691988, Nadi and Labasa experienced lowest
rainfall in history of 5001000 mm year
1
. Although
a decreasing trend was not so noticeable over the period
19491968, there was a gradual decrease in rainfall over
the period 19691988 for Rotuma and Nausori. Over
the last 20 years, rainfall amounts increased monotoni-
cally. However, the recorded values remained below the
19491968 totals.
3.2. Drought severity and duration
The cumulative yearly rainfall, represented as the drought
index, SPI, is shown in Figure 6. The index is normalized
by its mean and standard deviation so comparisons of
SPI in geographically different regions are possible.
Consistent with Figures 4 and 5, SPI shows a general
shift towards increasingly negative values at all stations,
with statistically signicant negative increases at Nadi,
Labasa, Nacocolevu and Ono-I-Lau at the 95% level of
signicance.
The distribution of SPI derived from moving accumu-
lations of monthly rainfall showed different probabilities
for all stations (Figure 7). It is clearly evident that the
PDF is most symmetric for Rotuma. This agrees with
Rotuma having more consistent rainfall over the study
period and perhaps less dynamic drought conditions.
Interestingly, the PDF of Nadi and Labasa shows multi-
modal behaviour, with substantial uctuations in PDF
relative to other stations. A calculation of total area
under the curve for all SPI 1.0 for Labasa and Nadi
showed 12.5% increase relative to Rotuma and 1.24%
increase relative to Nausori. Based on the distribution of
SPI, drought conditions in Nadi and Labasa appear to be
much stronger than those at other stations.
The severity and duration of meteorological droughts,
in the number of drought months, was characterized by
considering all months with SPI 2.0 as an extreme
drought month, all months with 2.0 < SPI 1.5
as a severe drought month and all months with
1.5 < SPI 1.0 as a moderate drought month
(McKee et al., 1993). The choice of time slice was based
on Figure 5 which showed categorically different rainfall
regimes prevalent every 20 years.
All stations except Rotuma and Nausori experi-
enced highest number of extreme drought months
during the period 19491968 (Figure 8(a)). The longest
duration was for Labasa (6 months decade
1
), followed
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
DROUGHTS IN TROPICAL PACIFIC ISLANDS A CASE STUDY OF FIJI
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1968
y
e
a
r
l
y

r
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1988
y
e
a
r
l
y

r
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 1995 2000 2005
year
2008
y
e
a
r
l
y

r
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
(a)
(b)
(c)
Figure 5. The 20-year time-slice analysis of total yearly rainfall over
the periods 19491968, 19691988 and 19892008. Symbols: lled
triangle () Rotuma; empty circle ( ) Nadi; lled circle ( ) Labasa;
lled square ( ) Nausori.
by Ono-I-Lau (5 months decade
1
) and Nacocolevu
and Nadi (4 months decade
1
). During the period
19691988, there was a marked increase of 2.5 month
decade
1
for Nausori and 4 months decade
1
for
Rotuma and a relative decrease at other stations. It
is noteworthy that the last 20 year time slice showed
increases in duration of extreme droughts for Nadi,
Labasa, Udu Point, Ono-I-Lau and Nacocolevu but total
durations for the period 19892008 remained below the
durations for the period 19491968. Together with rain-
fall trends (Figure 5), this analysis demonstrates shorter
duration of extreme droughts during the rst 20 years,
an increase during the mid period and a further reduction
during the last two decades.
For severe droughts, the highest number of drought
months registered for the period 19691988 was for
Nadi (9 months decade
1
) followed by Labasa and
Udu Point (7.5 months decade
1
) (Figure 8(b)). Over
the last 20 years there was a signicant reduction for
Nadi, followed by Labasa, Nausori, Udu Point and
Nacocolevu relative to total number of severe drought
months for the periods 19491968 and 19691988.
However, for Rotuma, the number of severe drought
months increased to 8 months decade
1
for the period
19882008, indicating that Rotuma is becoming less
immune to dry conditions.
In terms of moderate droughts, successive increases
for Nadi, Nausori and Ono-I-Lau during all three peri-
ods are suggesting gradual shifts towards a drier cli-
mate (Figure 8(c)). For Labasa, there was an increase
in moderate drought months during the mid-period rel-
ative to rst 20 years, but a decline for the period
19892008. Despite this decrease, the total number
of all drought months (SPI 1.0) over the period
19892008 remained signicantly higher than the
19491968 totals (Figure 8(d)). Identical trends in the
total number of drought months were evident for Nadi
and Labasa during all three periods. That is, an increase
in the total number of drought months for the period
19681988 and a decrease for the period 19892008.
For Nausori, the total number of drought months has
increased for the period 19892008 compared to other
periods, suggesting that the present climate is probably
becoming drier, even on the windward side.
3.3. Return periods
The results presented so far have shown increases in the
duration and severity of droughts at all stations, albeit
with varying impacts across Fijis islands. In Figure 9,
rainfall return periods at each station are shown. For any
given rainfall amount the return period for Rotuma was
the smallest. This is consistent with a smaller duration
and less severe drought for this region. The return peri-
ods for Labasa and Udu Point are similar, but generally
smaller than Nausori for values less than 35 years. It is
also clear that, for return periods of up to 13 years, Nadi
and Ono-I-Lau demonstrated the highest return period for
any given rainfall. However, for greater than 13 years,
the return period for Nadi was the highest, providing fur-
ther support to the suggestion that the western regions of
Fiji are signicantly prone to extreme and severe drought
events on a long-term scale.
Based on a 60 year drought history, it is obvious that
Fijis climate has shifted towards drier conditions since
the 1950s, but the extent of the shift is distinctly different
throughout Fiji. These differences appear to be correlated
with geographic locations (Derrick, 1951). The domi-
nant southeast trade winds which bring moist air from
the ocean, aiding in cloud formation over mountainous
regions (Lal, 2004). The mountains separate the wind-
ward and leeward side. Hence, Nadi and Nacocolevu,
located on the leeward side, receive less rain, and eas-
ily fall into drought episodes, while Nausori, being on
windward side, does not. By contrast, Rotuma which
has no mountainous barriers enjoys surplus oceanic rain.
With an average annual rain of about 3550 mm, drought
episodes last only 3 weeks (Dawe, 2001). This is fur-
ther supported by the results of Figure 9, which showed
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
R. C. DEO
-2
0
2
(a)
S
P
I
S
P
I
-2
0
2
(b)
-2
0
2
(c)
-2
0
2
S
P
I
-2
0
2
(d)
-2
0
2
(e)
-2
0
2
(f)
(g)
2
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
1
9
9
0
1
9
8
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9
7
0
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9
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2
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2
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0
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1
9
9
0
1
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8
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1
9
7
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9
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0
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9
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0
2
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
1
9
9
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
5
0
Figure 6. The time-series of standardized precipitation index (SPI) of yearly rainfall totals over the period 19482008. (a) Nadi (Sens Slope
0.02, Z-value 9.7, p-value 0.000); (b) Nausori (Sens Slope 0.01, Z-value 7.6, p-value 0.000); (c) Rotuma (Sens Slope 0.001, Z-value
3.4, p-value 0.000; (d) Labasa (Sens Slope 0.01, Z-value 9.4, p-value 0.000); (e) Udu Point (Sens Slope 0.001 mm year
1
, Z-value
6.9, p-value 0.000); (f) Ono-I-Lau (Sens Slope 0.002 mm year
1
, Z-value 8.4, p-value 0.000); (g) Nacocolevu (Sens Slope 0.002 mm
year
1
, Z-value 8.5, p-value 0.000). Note: dashed line denotes Sens Slope, negative Z-value shows a downward trend and p-value shows
statistical signicance of trend using the non-parametric MannKendall test.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
m
o
d
e
r
a
t
e
s
e
v
e
r
e
e
x
t
r
e
m
e
SPI
p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

(
S
P
I
)
Figure 7. The probability distribution function of SPI derived from monthly rainfall accumulation. The thresholds for different drought categories
(extreme, severe and moderate droughts) are shown and PDF is normalized such that area under the curve given by
_
probability(SPI)
d(SPI) = 1. Symbols: Rotuma; Nausori; Nadi; Labasa.
the smallest return period for Rotuma compared to other
stations for a given rainfall amount.
4. Conclusions
Analysis of observed monthly rainfall for Fiji over
the period 19492008 showed downward trends at the
99% level of signicance and decreases in rainfall of
1347 mm year
1
as determined by the Sens Slope.
The strongest drought-impacted regions were western and
northern Fiji (Nadi, Nacocolevu and Labasa). Compar-
isons of trends over the periods 19491968, 19691988
and 19892008 showed serious rainfall deciency during
the mid period and a marked increase in number of
extreme-severe droughts as determined by the Standard-
ized Precipitation Index (SPI). While rainfall increased
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
DROUGHTS IN TROPICAL PACIFIC ISLANDS A CASE STUDY OF FIJI
(a) (c)
(d) (b)
Figure 8. The total duration of droughts (shown in number of drought months) of different intensities computed from monthly SPI over
20-year time-slice periods of 19491968, 19691988 and 19892008. The drought intensities are (a) Extreme droughts (SPI 2.0);
(b) Severe droughts (2.0 < SPI 1.5); (c) Moderate droughts (1.5 < SPI 1.0); (d) All types of droughts (SPI 1.0). Symbols:
19491968; 19461988; 19892008.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
return period (years)
y
e
a
r
l
y

r
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

t
o
t
a
l
s

(
m
m
)
Figure 9. The return periods of total yearly rainfall. Symbols: lled triangle () Rotuma; empty circle ( ) Nadi; lled circle ( ) Labasa; lled
square ( ) Nausori; solid line with no symbol ( ) Udu Point; cross ( ) Ono-I-Lau.
over the last period, this did not outweigh the amounts
during rst 20 years. In addition, monthly rainfall
patterns showed a substantial decline during the dri-
est month, particularly for Nadi and Labasa. Although
droughts ranging from moderate to extreme in inten-
sity may become common in the future, the scarcity
of economic data and modelling expertize is inhibit-
ing proper diagnosis and prediction Therefore, empirical
studies using observed rainfall records can be used to
derive operational drought indices such as the SPI for
diagnosis of droughts in small tropical Pacic islands
such as Fiji.
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. (2010)
R. C. DEO
Acknowledgements
The rainfall datasets, provided by the Environment Ver-
ication and Analysis Centre (EVAC) and Fiji Meteoro-
logical Services, is greatly acknowledged. We thank the
two anonymous reviewers who have provided valuable
inputs to increase the clarity of this article.
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