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Key Findings
Fine Gael remains the largest party in the state, with 32% share of the first preference vote. This continues the trend that has seen the party in and around the low 30% share during 2012 but does also suggest some volatility among the electorate, given shifts in support just one week after the last RED C poll. Sinn Fein consolidate gains in support seen during 2012, securing 20% in today's poll, and remain the second largest party in the state. Support is strongest for the party among men and those living in Connaught and Ulster however it is interesting that support is also now stronger among mid 35-54 year olds ages, whereas historically it was among younger age groups. Fianna Fail also consolidate some gains in support seen during 2012. They secure 18% of the first preference vote, a week after hitting their highest share for 3 years in a poll also conducted by RED C a week ago. Labour continue to see their support at a significantly lower level than at the last election. Their first preference share remains rooted at 13%, some six points below that achieved in 2011. Part of this appears to be a decline in Dublin, where they now lie in second place behind Fine Gael. The rise of the Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail share of vote appears to have been somewhat to the detriment of Independent candidates, whose first preference share falls back to general election 2011 levels at 15%, after gains seen in the interim.
(3)
General Election
(4)
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
32%
18% 13%
20% 17%
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fail
Sinn Fin
Independents/ Greens/Other
(5)
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
% Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fil Sinn Fin Independents/ Green / Others Undecided 25 10 14 17 14 20
% 32 13 18 20 17
% 36 19 17 10 17
(6)
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
33%
35%
32%
General election 2011 Paddy Power Jan 2012 Paddy Power March 2012 Paddy Power May 2012
36%
20%
19%
18%
20%
20%
17%
16%
16%
17%
15%
13%
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fil
10%
Sinn Fin
14%
14%
Independents/ Green/Other
17%
17%
(7)
40%
Fine Gael
35%
32%
30%
25%
20%
5%
Green Party
0%
2%
Feb-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 GE 11 Jan-12 Jan-12 May-12 May-12
(8)
Gender Total % Fine Gael Fianna Fail Labour Sinn Fein Independent candidates/ Green/ Other Party 32 18 13 20 Male % 28 16 15 28 Female % 35 20 10 13 18-34 % 21 20 14 22
17
13
21
22
17
23
20
17
17
23
15
14
14
(9)