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Key Findings
The latest RED C/Paddy Power poll for the Fiscal Stability Treaty sees a relatively stable proportion of voters suggesting they will vote Yes, with the proportion high enough to suggest that Treaty currently remains likely to be passed. However it does suggests a slight shift towards more undecided voters away from the Yes camp, when compared to the last RED C poll a week ago. In todays poll, just under two thirds of the population (59%) claim they will definitely go and vote in the Referendum, with 14% suggesting they will definitely not or are very unlikely to go and vote. RED C poll analysis excludes this 14% as previous analysis suggests they are very unlikely to vote. Half (50%) of all likely voters claim that they will vote yes to ratify the treaty, 31% claim they will vote No and 19% remain undecided. When these undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side secures 62% of the vote and 38% are left voting No. The greatest support for the treaty lies primarily among older, 55+ age groups, higher social grades and those residing in Dublin and ROL. 18-24 year olds and those from Conn/Ulster are most likely no vote supporters and would take some effort to persuade otherwise, however even in these demographics when undecided voters are excluded the treaty would still be passed. Support by party allegiance shows a polarization, with Fianna Fil, Fine Gael and Labour voters getting more likely to vote Yes for the referendum, while Sinn Fein and Independents are more likely to be No vote supporters.
(3)
In any one referendum, turnout might be at only around 60% of all eligible to vote. It is important therefore that we control our voting intention questions by how likely people are to vote. RED C ask respondents to say how likely it is that they will go and vote using a ten point scale where 10 means they would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 means they would be certain not to vote. We then exclude anyone who gives a score of 1-3 from our voting intention calculations, as these people will not vote in an election anyway.
1-3
4-7
8-9
10
14
15
12
59
Unlikely Voters
Possible Voters
Definite Voters
(4)
49
50
59
62
33 18
31 41 19 38
Q. European Union country leaders have agreed on a new European Fiscal Stability Treaty in 2012, that would entail greater oversight by the EU over member states budgets. In the upcoming referendum, you will have the option to vote YES in favour of Ireland ratifying the treaty, or NO against Ireland ratifying the treat. How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum?
(5)
40 44 49 49 47 53 50
53 60 59 60 58 63 62
36 29
33 33 35 31 31 47 40 41 40 42 37 38
24 26 18 18 18 16 19
Q. European Union country leaders have agreed on a new European Fiscal Stability Treaty in 2012, that would entail greater oversight by the EU over member states budgets. In the upcoming referendum, you will have the option to vote YES in favour of Ireland ratifying the treaty, or NO against Ireland ratifying the treat. How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum?
How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treaty referendum excluding those not likely to vote?
(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)
Gender
Age
Class
Region
Total % 50 31 19
Male % 53 33 14
Female 18-34 % % 48 29 23 44 36 20
35-54 % 49 31 20
55+ % 58 25 17
ABC1 % 57 24 19
C2DE % 41 40 19
F % 70 14 16
Dublin % 53 30 17
PARTY SUPPORT How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum? Total % 50 31 19
Fianna Fail 63 19 18
Fine Gael 77 7 16
Labour 67 21 12
Sinn Fein 10 78 12
Ind. 37 51 12
Undecided 39 25 37
(7)
How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treaty referendum excluding Dont Knows and those not likely to vote?
(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)
Mar 12
May 12 Region
ROL %
Munster Conn/Ulster % %
YES
59 62
61 62
58
52 55 63
55
61 71 69
61 71
55
51 61 64 59 66 60 61
58 55
NO
41 38
39 38
42
37
48
45
45
39 29 31
39 29
45
49 39 36 41 34 40 39
42 45
(8)
How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treaty referendum excluding Dont Knows and those not likely to vote?
(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)
May 12
Total %
Fianna Fail %
Fine Gael %
Labour %
Sinn Fein %
Ind. %
12 27 42
YES
48 59 62 62 77 77 92 88 73 69 76
NO
52 41 38 38 23 23 8 31 24
58
(9)