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Strategy at the
edge of chaos
Eric D. Beinhocker
The author thanks Kevin Coyne, Oliver Engert, Dick Foster, Rainer Gawlick, John Hagel, Somu Subramaniam,
George Ugras, and the author’s colleagues in the McKinsey Strategy Forum/Strategy Theory Initiative for
their contributions to this article. Mr. Beinhocker also benefited from the writings of, and discussions with,
W. Brian Arthur, Larry Blume, Steven Durlauf, David Lane, and Stuart Kauffman of the Santa Fe Institute.
Eric Beinhocker is a principal in McKinsey’s Washington, DC, office. This article was originally pub-
lished in The McKinsey Quarterly, 1997 Number 1. Copyright © 1997 McKinsey & Company. All rights
reserved.
This article can be found on our Web site at www.mckinseyquarterly.com/strategy/sted97.asp.
109
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110 S T R AT E G Y I N T H E N E W E C O N O M Y
The dismal state of the dismal science matters to managers, chief operating
officers, consultants, and business professors because much of modern
management thinking has been built on a foundation of Greek-letter
economics. The bad news is that this foundation is now in serious doubt.
But take heart — the good news is that a radically new one is being put
in place.
S T R AT E G Y AT T H E E D G E O F C H A O S 111
EXHIBIT 1
Equilibrium systems
The ball rests at its lowest An exogenous shock ...and reshapes the bowl,
energy state in equilibrium. unsettles the system... creating a new equilibrium.
2
For a more detailed discussion of increasing returns, see W. Brian Arthur, “Positive feedbacks in the
economy,” The McKinsey Quarterly, 1994 Number 1, pp. 81–95; and “Increasing returns and the new
world of business,” Harvard Business Review, July–August 1996, pp. 100– 9.
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112 S T R AT E G Y I N T H E N E W E C O N O M Y
functions, and carefully sited entrances and exits, they are as thoughtfully
constructed as any condominium complex. Yet who is the engineer? Where
is the blueprint?
The answer, of course, is that none exists. The plan for the anthill does not
reside in any individual ant. Rather, each ant is programmed by its DNA to
obey a set of relatively simple rules,
such as “stand between two other
Individually, ants don’t do much. ants and pass along anything that is
But put them in an interactive handed to you.” Ants communicate
group and an anthill emerges with each other via chemical signals
known as pheromones, which pro-
vide inputs and outputs for the rules
and switch them on and off. It is the dynamic interaction of the rules and
signals that creates the anthill structure.
First, they are open, dynamic systems. The Marshall ball-in-a-bowl system
is closed; no energy or mass enters or leaves, and the system can settle into
an equilibrium state. By contrast, the energy and mass that constantly flow
through a complex adaptive system keep it in dynamic disequilibrium. An
anthill, for example, is a perpetual-motion machine in which patterns of
behavior are constantly shifting; some patterns appear stable, others chaotic.
Second, these systems are made up of interacting agents, such as ants, people,
molecules, or computer programs. What each agent does affects one or more
of the other agents at least some of the time; this creates complexity and
makes outcomes difficult to predict. The interactions of agents in a complex
system are guided by rules: laws of physics, codes of conduct, or economic
imperatives such as “cut prices if your competitor does.” If the repertoire of
rules is fixed, the result is a complex system. If the rules are evolving, as with
genes encoded in DNA or the strategies pursued by players in a game, the
result is a complex adaptive system.
3
For an excellent nontechnical introduction to the field of complex adaptive systems, see M. Mitchell
Waldrop, Complexity, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992; Stuart A. Kauffman, At Home in the Universe,
New York: Oxford University Press, 1995; and John H. Holland, Hidden Order, Redwood City, CA: Addison-
Wesley, 1995. For a more technical overview of complexity and economics, see Philip W. Anderson,
Kenneth J. Arrow, and David Pines (eds.), The Economy as an Evolving, Complex System, Redwood City,
CA: Addison-Wesley, 1988; and W. Brian Arthur, David Lane, Steven N. Durlauf (eds.), The Economy as an
Evolving, Complex System II, Redwood City, CA: Addison-Wesley, 1997.
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S T R AT E G Y AT T H E E D G E O F C H A O S 113
dynamic interactions of the ants and not from a top-down master plan, it is said
to be self-organized. The emergent structure is independent of specific agents;
while individual ants may come and go, the pattern of the anthill persists.
A new economics based on complex adaptive systems is still in its infancy, but
enough work has been done to suggest what the key components might be.
Wisdom
114 S T R AT E G Y I N T H E N E W E C O N O M Y
Webs
Second, the new economics will see agents interacting with one another in
a dynamic web of relationships. It will not be enough to have a sound model
of a firm’s behavior; you must also know how people interact within the firm,
how it interacts with other firms in its market, and how these interactions
change over time.
Waves
Third, markets will be viewed as inherently dynamic rather than static systems,
thus making possible an explanation of growth and innovation that traditional
economics has never been able to provide. When adaptive agents interact in a
web of relationships, evolutionary changes in one agent affect the evolution of
others. This effect, known as coevolution, is frequently seen in nature and also
occurs in economics when an innovation (such as the invention of the automo-
bile) produces ripple effects throughout the whole economy (the development
of the oil industry, motels, the growth of suburbs, and so on).4
Would-be worlds
Not only the substance but also the research techniques of economics will
be transformed. Although the new economics will continue to make use of
traditional mathematical proofs, it will increasingly turn to sophisticated
computer simulations based on more realistic assumptions. In agent-based
models, for example, a company can be modeled as an intelligent computer
program capable of learning and adapting. You can put a set of these pro-
grams into a simulated competitive market, unleash the forces of evolution
on them, and watch different futures unfold. Since complex systems can
be difficult or impossible to forecast, such models will be of little help in
forecasting the precise path an industry might take; however, they will be
valuable in helping to determine how and why markets behave as they do.
S T R AT E G Y AT T H E E D G E O F C H A O S 115
5
For an in-depth discussion of this topic, see Eric D. Beinhocker, “On the origin of strategies,” on page 167
of this anthology.
6
See Stuart A. Kauffman, “Technology and evolution: Escaping the Red Queen effect,” The McKinsey
Quarterly, 1995 Number 1, pp. 118–29.
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116 S T R AT E G Y I N T H E N E W E C O N O M Y
EXHIBIT 3
Industry mean
Total return to shareholders, percent
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 5 10 15 20
Years Years Years
If advantage was sustainable, Instead, a study of 400 companies Although companies do not sustain
some companies would be over 30 years shows that high advantage, a few seem to create
expected to sustain superior performers regress to the industry new advantages continually.
performance. mean after three to seven years.
Evolution is adept at
keeping things that
Low work while at the same
Stasis Edge of chaos Chaos
time making bold exper-
iments. The morphology
Slow, incremental change Rapid, radical change
of the spinal cord is a
robust adaptation that
has survived eons of
evolution and enormous environmental shifts. Yet nature has experimented
wildly around this core idea, producing vertebrates that range from birds to
whales to humans.
The Walt Disney Company is a firm that prospers at the edge of chaos. Its
theme parks and other businesses are run in a deeply conservative fashion.
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S T R AT E G Y AT T H E E D G E O F C H A O S 117
Few companies are skilled at striking this balance. The result is firms that
are either chaotic or vulnerable at punctuation points because they no longer
have a well-stocked pool of ideas and experiences from which to draw.
A simple system with relatively few parts and interconnections isn’t highly
adaptable: the number of states it can manifest is small compared with the
number of situations it might encounter. As the system grows bigger and
more complex, the number of states it can manifest, and thus its repertoire
of possible responses to changes in its environment, grows exponentially.
However, beyond a certain level of scale and complexity, its adaptiveness
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118 S T R AT E G Y I N T H E N E W E C O N O M Y
But for companies that do accept the challenge, the payoff promises to be
considerable. Unlike creatures in nature, we are not blind, passive players in
the evolutionary game. Through the sciences of complexity, we can come to
understand how evolution works, the tricks it has up its sleeve, and the skills
needed to survive in a complex world. If we do so, we may be able to har-
ness one of the most powerful forces of all: evolution will then be the wave
we ride to new levels of creativity and innovation rather than the tide that
washes over us.