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Learning Lessons

April 2012

Evaluation

Independent

Intense Climate-Related Natural Disasters in Asia and the Pacific


The frequency of intense floods and storms is increasing globally and in Asia and the Pacific amid the specter of climate change, pointing to the need for better mitigation and adaptation to natural disasters. The rainfall and temperatures associated with these events are becoming more variable and extreme, while the evidence suggests that coastal regions in South, Southeast, and East Asia are at greater risk. There is also evidence that the more frequent and intense impact of these weather-related disasters results from a confluence of three factors: the changing nature of the hazards, rising exposure of populations, and limited adaptive capacity in many countries. Disasters also seem to be taking a heavier toll on low- and lower-middle-income countries. In other words, exposure, sensitivity, and lack of adaptive capacity turn a hazard of nature into a natural disaster. Such calamities erode the otherwise dramatic progress on poverty reduction and other development gains of the past two decades. The Peoples Republic of China and India, for example, have been at the forefront of poverty reduction in the past three decades, yet both are also among the countries in Asia and the Pacific at greater risk from climate-related disasters. This synthesis presents the lessons drawn from evaluations of information sourced from publicly available databases.1

Highlights of Lessons
Climate-Related Disasters on the Rise
Natural disaster data sourced from the Emergency Event Database (EM-DAT) established by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters consist of: n geophysical events (earthquakes, volcanoes, dry mass movements) n meteorological events n hydrological events (floods, wet mass movements) n climatological events (extreme temperature changes (drought, wildfire) n biological disasters (epidemics, insect infestations, animal stampedes) Intense natural disaster eventsthose killing 100 or more people or affecting 1,000 or more generally increased during 1971 to 2010. Such global trends are largely due to the rise in intense hydro-meteorological disasters (see Figure 1).
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Figure 1: Global Frequency of Intense Natural Disasters


150

Intense Disaster

100

50

1970

1980 Geophysical Hydrological

1990
Type of Disaster

2000 Climatological

2010

Biological Meteorological

Source: EM-DAT

Data were sourced from the Emergency Event Database (EM-DAT), the HADCRUT3 temperature database, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre database on precipitation, the University of California at San Diego Scripps database on carbon dioxide stock (from Mauna Loa air situ samples), and the World Development Indicators database to examine the nexus of climate-related natural disasters to climate change, population exposure to disasters, and other factors.
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Learning Lessons
The number of intense hydro-meteorological disasters globally in 20012010 increased 66% to 2,004 from 1,210 in 19912000. During 19912000 the number of these disasters rose about 80% over the figure (671) in 19811990. Asia and the Pacific accounts for about two-thirds of the 1.6 million lives lost to intense natural disasters during 19912000. Meanwhile, about 234 million people per year globally, on average, were affected by intense natural disaster during 20012010, about four times the figure in 19711980. Figure 2: Monthly Temperature Anomalies during Intense Climatological Disasters
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Average Monthly Temperatue Anomalies

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Changing Climate and Hazards


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in reports put out during 20042007 declared that global warming in the past century could not be attributed solely to natural variability. Changes in temperature anomalies and in precipitation deviations from the norm across Asia and the Pacific have also been empirically linked to increasing greenhouse gas emissions (proxied by rising carbon dioxide concentration). For intense climatological disasters in Asia and the Pacific, concomitant average monthly temperature anomalies are found to have increased and become more variable (see Figure 2). The same is true of temperature during months when intense meteorological disasters occurred.

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-6 19711975 19761980 19811985 19861990 19911995 19962000 20012005 20062010 Note: Distributional shifts across 5-year periods in monthly temperature anomalies during intense climatological disasters in Asia and the Pacific. The data represent monthly combined land and marine sea surface temperature anomalies. Source: Climatic Research Unit of University of East Anglia

Disaster Risk Depends on Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability


Natural disasters have to be viewed within a framework of risks, which include the hazard itself, as well as a communitys exposure and vulnerability to it. A flood may cause less damage in a community where people are more prepared, while the greater the adaptive capacity of a community, the lower its vulnerability. Exposure, sensitivity, and lack of adaptive capacity, in other words, turn a hazard of nature into a natural disaster.

Some subregions (Southeast Asia, South Asia and East Asia) in Asia and the Pacific, particularly Bangladesh, the Peoples Republic of China, India, Myanmar, and the Philippines, are more at risk from hydrological and meteorological disasters than other areas in the region. The results of panel logistic regression models (Table 1) identify major factors explaining the risk from intense, weather-related disasters in Asia and the Pacific. These include (i) the rising number of people exposed to hazards in low-lying cities near coasts (approximated by population growth); (ii) adaptive capacity (high population density and income) (iii) climatic factors (percentage of a countrys land that is tropical, amount of precipitation, average temperature).

Table 1: Weather-Related Disaster Risk in Asia and the Pacific (19712010)

Variables A. Hazard/ Climate Variables Annual average temperature anomalies Annual average precipitation deviations from normal Percentage of land in tropics Percentage of land in temperate zone B. Exposure Variables Population (in natural log) exposure C. Adaptive Capacity/ Vulnerability Variables Whether economy is low income or lower middle income class, and population density is at least 75 per square-km Constant Memo Notes: Model Fit Statistics Chi2 N Akaike Information Criterion Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion
Legend: *p<.05, ** p<.01, ***p<.001

Asia and the Pacific 1.53 1.02 1.01 0.97* 4.69*** 1.65 6.45***

East Asia 5.19** 0.98 0.98 3.53** 0.56 3.94

South Asia 1.29 1.07*** 1.03** 0.99 4.49*** 0.16 0.21

Southeast Asia 1.44 1.03** 0.99 1.00 3.83** 3.51* 2.00

Other subregions 0.75 0.99 1.09*** 0.97 10.37*** 5.07 9.30

90.82 2,320 867.34 907.58

20.05 320 150.25 172.86

45.71 320 216.87 243.25

37.21 440 292.23 320.84

29.66 1,240 194.58 230.44

Note: Table entries reflect odds ratios for panel logistics regression models identifying determinants of weather-related disaster risk in Asia and the Pacific. Sources: EM-DAT and WDI Indicators, World Bank (2011)

The strength of these risk-factors depends on location. The amount of precipitation (deviations from normal) explains weather-disaster risk in South Asia and Southeast Asia; in East Asia, temperature anomaly deviations explain weather-related disaster risks. The lower the adaptive capacity, indicated by high population density and low income, the greater the risk. Southeast Asia comes out prominently on this measure. In South Asia, the greater the percentage of land in tropical zones, the more prone the country is to weather disasters.

As in many parts of the world, temperatures are rising in the Philippines. The annual average temperature rose at a rate of 0.65 C during 19512010, or an average of 0.0108 C annually. The rate of increase in temperature during the last 30 years (0.0164C per year) is also faster than the long-term rate of increase. The number of hot days and warm nights is increasing, and the number of cold days and cool nights decreasing (Figure 4). There is also evidence of increasing frequency of extreme daily rainfall. For example, over Luzon, the northern most and largest of the three major island groups of the Philippines, Figure 5 illustrates that more frequent rainfall of greater than 350 millimeters is recorded in the latter part of the 2000s, than the 275 millimeter events of the 1960s and 1970s. Figure 4: Frequency of Hot Days and Cold Days in the Philippines (19502010)
310 310

Climate and Weather Trends in the Philippines


Climate is changing in the Philippines, as are all the elements of risk: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. While the annual frequency of tropical cyclones shows no trend, damage and casualties are rising, with huge recent damage from tropical cyclones of lower intensity than typhoons, but with much heavier rains. The typical path of tropical cyclones has also changed in the past sixty years. In the 1950s and 1960s, the most frequent tropical cyclone activity was in the eastern part of the country; by the 1970s, the activity had shifted toward northern Luzon, albeit with lower frequency in the last two decades. The path of tropical cyclones has also shifted to the central Philippines (Visayas) in the latest decade. Figure 3: The Frequency of Tropical Cyclones per Decade in the Philippines (19611970 vs 20012010)

Number of Days with Maximum Temperature of > 30oC

290 290

270 270

250 250

230 230

210 210 1950 1950


18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4

1960 1960

1970 1970

1980 1980

1990 1990

2000 2000

2010 2010

Number of Days with Minimum Temperature of <18oC

19611970

2 2 0 0 1950 1950

1960 1960

1970 1970

1980 1980

1990 1990

2000 2000

2010 2010

Notes: (a) Annual number of occurence days per station calculated from data taken at 28 observation stations, (b) the thin line shows the annual number of days per station, (c) the heavy line shows the 11-year running mean. Source: PAGASA

Figure 5: Frequency of Heavy Rainfall Events in Luzon


25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5
1960s 1960s 1970s 1970s 1980s 1980s 1990s 1990s 2000s 2000s

20012010
Note: The graph represents the spatial distribution of the frequency of tropical cyclones during the 19611970 and 20012010 in the Philippine area of responsibility. Source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

0 0

275 mm Source: Manila Observatory

275

300 mm

300

325

325 mm

350

350 mm

>350

>350 mm

Learning Lessons

References Conclusions
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Pacific. The concomitant distribution of temperature and

the changing nature of hazards that are affected by climate

the Peoples Republic of China, India, Myanmar, and the

_______. 2011. Learning Lessons: Attaining Health through Hoeppe, P. 2007. Trends of Natural Disasters theOutcomes Role Synergies of Rural Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene. Manila: ADB. of Global Warming . Available online at www.oecd.org/ dataoecd/26/10/38155568.pdf _______. 2011. Learning Lessons: Managing for Development Results. Manila: ADB. IEG World Bank. 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development: An IEG Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural Disasters. IEG Study _______. 2011. Learning Lessons: Success Factors in Implementing Series. Washington, DC: World Bank Independent Evaluation Group. Primary and Secondary Education Projects. Manila: ADB. Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 SYR. 2007. Core _______. 2011. Sector Assistance Evaluation: Transport Sector in Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; and Program Reisinger, A., ed., Climate Change. Pacific Developing Member Countries (19952010) Manila:I,ADB. 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working .Groups II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on _______. 2011. Special Climate Change, IPCC. Evaluation Study: Managing for Development Results. Manila: ADB. IPCC SREX. 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters _______. 2011. Special Evaluation Study : The Asian Development to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Fund Operations: A Decade of Supporting Poverty Reduction in the Asia and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Pacific Press. Region. Manila: ADB. _______. Forthcoming. Special Study: Effectiveness of Jennings,2012. S. 2011. Times Bitter Flood:Evaluation Trends in the number of reported Asian Development Banks Support Report. for Natural Disasters. Manila: natural disasters. Oxfam Research Available online at ADB. www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/conflict_disasters/downloads/rrIndependent Evaluation Group. 2006a. From Schooling Access to times-bitter-floods-270511-en.pdf Learning Outcomes: An Unfinished Agenda. Washington, DC: World Bank. Kubota, H. and Chan, J. C. L. 2009. Interdecadal Variability of Tropical _______. 2006b. Hazards of Nature, from Risks 1902 to Development: An IEG Cyclone Landfall in the Philippines to 2005. Geophysical Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural Disasters. Washington, Research Letters , 36. DC: World Bank. Min, S. K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. and Hegerl, G. 2011. Human _______. 2009. Lakhdar Watershed Management Pilot Contribution toMorocco: More-Intense Precipitation Extremes. Nature . Vol. 470, Project. Project Performance 378381. 17 February 2011. Assessment Report. World Bank, Washington, DC. Munich Re. 2011. Natural Catastrophe Year in Review. January 2012. _______. An of World Bank Support, 20002010: Social Available 2011. online atEvaluation www.iii.org/assets/docs/ppt/MunichRe-010412.ppt Safety Nets. Washington, DC: World Bank. Rudolf, B., Becker, A., Schneider, U. Meyer-Christoffer, A., and Ziese, V. and X. Luo. Report Forthcoming. Multilateral Banks and the M.Thomas 2010. GPCC Status December 2010. On the most recent Development Process . Transactions Publishers. Rutgers University. gridded global data set issued in fall 2010 by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)). D. Van de Valle. 2000. Are Returns to Investment Lower for the Poor? World Bank Working Paper 2425. Washington. D.C. Thomas, V. 2008. Disasters, Climate, and Growth . IEG Working Paper 2011. G. Wan and I. Sebastian. 2011. Poverty in Asia and the Pacific: An Update. ADB2011. Economics Working Paper Series. No. 267. Manila: Asianat World Bank. World Development Indicators. Available online Development Bank. http://databank.worldbank.org (last accessed 15 December 2011).

a heavier toll on such low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

Data from the Philippines illustrates these issues well, with the path and frequency of tropical cyclones changing and the _______. 2010. 2010 Annual Evaluation Review. Manila: ADB. number of hot days and warm nights increasing.
_______. 2010. Evaluation Knowledge Brief: Reducing Carbon Emissions n Better mitigation and adaptation, such as accelerating from Transport Projects. Manila: ADB.

plans for the clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, as well as refining hazard mapping and various risk _______. 2010. Impact Evaluation Study: Asian Development Bank's assessment systems, are needed. Mainstreaming disaster Assistance for Rural Electrification in Bhutan - Does Electrification Improve management and climate adaptation is ultimately about the Quality of Rural Life? Manila: ADB. reducing disaster risk, aside from mitigating the impact of the consequences of disasters. _______. 2010. Learning Curves: Impact of Rural Water Supply and
Sanitation in Punjab, Pakistan. Manila: ADB. _______. 2011. 2011 Annual Evaluation Review. Manila: ADB. References _______. 2011. Learning Curves: Education Sector in Uzbekistan. Anglo, E. G. 2005. Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Manila: ADB. Western Pacific. Manila Observatory Report. _______. 2011. LearningI.Lessons: ADBs Emergency and2006. Rehabilitation Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, Harris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones. Uncertainty Assistance on Flood-Affected Areas. Manila: ADB. Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research 111, D12106.

Disclaimer Written by Tomoo Ueda, Jose Ramon Albert, and Ruth Francisco under the guidance The views ofand Vinod assessments Thomas, Director contained General, herein Independent do not necessarily Evaluation. reflect the views of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Directors or the governments Disclaimer they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the The views data and accepts and assessments no responsibility contained for any herein consequence do not necessarily of their use. reflect the views of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Directors or the governments About the Asian they Development represent. ADB Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data and ADBs vision accepts is an no Asia responsibility and Pacific for region any consequence free of poverty. of their Itsuse. mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve About the quality the Independent of life of theirEvaluation people. Despite at Asian theDevelopment regions manyBank successes, it The Independent remains home to two-thirds Evaluationof Department the worldsevaluates poor: 1.8 billion the policies, people strategies, who live operations, on less thanand $2 a special day, with concerns 903 million of thestruggling Asian Development on less than Bank $1.25 a day. relating to organizational and operational effectiveness. It contributes to ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, development effectiveness by providing on performance and environmentally sustainable growth, andfeedback regional integration. through Based evaluation in Manila, lessons. ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance.

Learning Lessons is a synthesis of key lessons drawn from Learning Lessons is a synthesis of and key programs. lessons drawn from evaluations of ADB-supported projects This evaluations of ADB-supported projects and programs. synthesis may include contexts derived from literature review. This synthesis may include derived from literature review. Lessons presented in thiscontexts brief are not prescriptive, and users are Lessons to presented this brief are not prescriptive, and are advised carefully in review these lessons in the context of users country, advised to carefully these lessons in the context of country, sector, and thematicreview conditions. sector, and thematic conditions.

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