Predicting and Attributing Climate Change

Dave Frame
Department of Physics, University of Oxford
Oxford University Centre for the Environment
dframe@atm.ox.ac.uk

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 Defining Climate

„ Climate is the statistics of the weather

– Global mean, annual mean surface temperature
– East Pacific summer sea-surface temperatures
– Mean annual Indian Rainfall
– Average July humidity in Toruń
– Return period of Florida hurricanes
„ Wide range of spatial and time scales involved
„ “Climate is what we expect; weather is what we get”
– Ed Lorenz

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 Climate responds due to:

„ Factors internal to the climate system:

– Variability in the atmosphere
– Variability in the oceans
– Variability in the biosphere
„ Factors external to the climate system:
– Rising levels of greenhouse gases
– Volcanoes
– Fluctuations in solar output

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 Climate as a predictable system

Climate is to weather as the bank is to the roulette

wheel:
„ The statistics of the system are simpler than the
system itself
„ Easier to be right in the long run than in the short

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 Factors governing predictability

„ Initial conditions
– are the state and trajectory of the climate system at the
beginning of the forecast
Necessary for predicting weather
„ Boundary conditions
– are the external factors that control the weather we
should expect on average
Crucial in predicting climate

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 Predictive skill over time

„ Skill diminishes as natural anomalies in climate

“wash out” of the system (as the roulette wheel
relaxes back to its statistical norm)
„ Skill increases over time as the boundary conditions
start to drive the statistical norms (as the roulette
wheel gums up)

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 Sources of predictability

Initial Condition Boundary Condition

predictability Predictability
Predictive
Skill

Time (yrs)

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 Boundary conditions and
global climate

„ Climate is determined by the boundary conditions of

the atmosphere-ocean system:
– solar irradiance (power output of the sun)
– atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases, volcanic
activity, etc.)
– positions of continents, ice-sheets etc.
„ If these change, climate is likely to change

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Factors in the climate system

Kiehl and Trenberth, 1996

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 ..most escapes to outer space
and cools the earth...

SUN
…but some IR is
trapped by some
gases in the air,
thus reducing the
cooling….
Sunlight
passes
through the
atmosphere..

..and warms the earth. Infra-red radiation

is given off by the earth...

Source: Ellie Highwood

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Energy in the climate system

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Climate varies on geological timescales

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Global Temperature last 1000 yr

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“In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties,
most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due
to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”

Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001

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 Model hierarchy

„ Physics constraints operate at all scales:

– energy balance
– energy transport
– geostrophic balance
– Moisture availiability
– Cloud condensation principles

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 Model hierarchy

„ And we can usefully model the climate system at a

similarly wide range of scales
1. zero-dimensional energy balance models (EBMs);
2. one dimensional radiative-convective models (RCMs);
3. two-dimensional statistical-dynamical models (SDMs);
4. three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs).

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 Energy Balance Models

„ Treat the climate system as an energy balance

problem: what goes in must come out
„ Can write an equation that looks at temperature
response to “forcing” (changes in incoming or
outgoing radiation)

d∆T
ceff = F − λ ∆T
dt

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 Energy Balance Models

„ Treat the climate system as an energy balance

problem: what goes in must come out

Heat uptake Climate Temperature

of the system forcing response

d∆T
ceff = F − λ ∆T
dt

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 Energy Balance Models

„ Treat the climate system as an energy balance

problem: what goes in must come out

Ocean heat Atmospheric

uptake feedbacks

d∆T
ceff = F − λ ∆T
dt
(For a given
climate forcing)

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 Energy Balance Models - Ensembles

„ Ideally, we’d take an unbiased sample of all viable

climate models, but we can’t do that
„ Best we can do is take this scatter-gun approach
„ Repeat with other models

d∆T
ceff = F − λ ∆T
dt

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 General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere:

3 Equations of Motion 3D wind field

Equation of State
Energy Equation
Mass Conservation
} Temperature
Pressure
Density

The Model also includes: • Convection scheme

• Cloud scheme
• Radiation scheme
• Sulphur cycle
• Precipitation
• Land surface and vegetation
• Gravity wave drag scheme

Each of these equations is evaluated at each point in the model [96

longitudes by 73 latitudes by 19 vertical levels] every half hour
timestep

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 Climate modelling (1990)

„ General Circulation Models (GCMs)

– Atmospheric GCMs
– Ocean GCMs

Atmosphere only Model

Ocean only Model

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 Climate modelling (2000)

„ Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCMs

Atmosphere Model

Ocean Model

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 Climate modelling (2005?)

„ Coupled GCMs with biogeochemical cycles

Atmospheric Model
Chemistry Model

Cryosphere Model Coupler

Biosphere Model

Ocean Model

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 GCM Performance

„ Modern Coupled GCMs

5 Perform well at continental scales
5 Perform well at interannual -> climatological scales
4 Perform less well at short time scales
4 Perform less well at regional scales

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 Model simulation of recent climate

Natural forcings only Anthropogenic forcings only

(solar, volcanic etc. variability) (human-induced changes)

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 Model simulation of recent climate
Natural forcings

Natural + Anthropogenic forcings

Anthropogenic forcings

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 Solar forcing in models

Combined forcing, doubling solar response

Stott et al, 2001

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 Increasing greenhouse gases:
„ Increases the infrared opacity of the atmosphere.
„ Raises the mean altitude of air radiating to space.
„ Higher air is colder (by ~6K/km) and so emits less.
„ Net radiation to space is reduced, by ~4W/m2 for a
doubling of CO2.
„ Climate system adjusts to restore balance.

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Forcing Uncertainties

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Warming rates in different models (“Model
Spread”)

Different
models yield
different
warmings
under the same
scenarios

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Net ranges under various scenarios

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 Developed Country Per capita Emissions far
Exceed Developing Country Per Capita Emissions

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Uncertainty in global warming under two
scenarios of future emissions

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Risk of global warming first exceeding 1.5K by a
given date

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Global model predictions

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Zonal mean precipitation changes at time of CO2 doubling in CMIP-2
models

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 How uncertain are these model predictions?

„ Models depend on “parameterisations” of processes too small

to resolve.
„ Parameterisations represent the feedbacks between smaller
and larger scales.
„ Many prescribed “parameters” (e.g. “ice fall speed in clouds”)
are poorly constrained.

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GCM resolution ~ 2.5° in lat,lon
Explicit representation of larger
scale features;
Sub-grid scale processes need
to be parameterized
“Arbitrarily small scales affect
arbitrarily large scales in finite
time” (Lorenz 1969)

The Met Office

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Uncertainty in climate forecasts

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 2080
temperature 2080
change (K) precipitation
change (%)

We can produce very detailed predictions of

climate change which span a range of possibilities
because of uncertainties in:
•Future forcing
•System uncertainty
•Chaos

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 Regional responses: temperature and precipitation

Standard model version

Low sensitivity model

High sensitivity model

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Uncertainty in climate forecasts

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 Combining physical uncertainty with economic
uncertainty: the Integrated Assessment problem
0.5

0.4
Median: 2.3
Probability Density

0.3

0.2

Lower 95%: 0.9

0.1
Upper 95%: 5.3

0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Temperature Change (Degrees C) 2000-2100

Source: Webster et al, 2001

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Elements of Sustainable Development

Courtesy of The World Bank

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 World Bank Strategy

Carbon Internalizing
Trading Global Externalities
JI (supporting the post-
More More Kyoto process)
Renewables GEF
Clean Clean Local/Regional
Technology Fuel Pollution
Abatement
Economic Environmental Regional (to be
Instruments Standards Agreements strengthened)

Sector Energy Rural Win-Win

Reform Efficiency Energy (in place)

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Regional Behaviour – European Precipitation

Mediterranean Basin Northern Europe

Winter
Winter

Summer
Summer

Annual Annual

Unpublished analysis from climateprediction.net: Source: David Stainforth

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Record hot events are more likely in a generally warmer world

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Summer 2003 temperatures relative to 2000-2004

From NASA’s
MODIS - Moderate
Resolution Imaging
Spectrometer,
courtesy of Reto
Stöckli, ETHZ

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Excess mortality rates in early August 2003 indicate 22,000 - 35,000 heat-related deaths

Daily mortality in Baden-Württemberg

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 Was the hot summer of 2003 due to climate change?

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of a

summer like 2003

By 2050, it could be that hot every other summer

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 Hotspots:
1.4% of Land Surface but 40-50% of biodiversity

Consideration of climate change challenges the concept of

“corridors” as a mechanism to protect some ecosystems
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Standard Visualisation Package

http://www.climateprediction.net

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Since September 2003,
100,000 participants in 142 countries have
completed 100,000 45 -year GCM runs
computed 3 million model years
donated 8,000 years of computing time
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