Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 11


10 April 2012 European Equity Research

Stock Data
52-Week Range (p) Current price (p) Shares Outstanding (m) Free Float (%) Market Cap (m) Daily volume (100 day avg) 544.5-157 545 50.21 80% 273 233,583

Providence Resources
Material upgrade to expectations
PRICE: 545p | UK | OIL & GAS | PVR.L | PVR LN

Following the highly successful Barryroe appraisal well, Providence has dealt with its financing issues with a Placing to raise US$100m. The remainder of the 2012-13 drilling programme looks funded. We have significantly upgraded our view of Barryroe and, post Placing, have a price target of 1250p. We retain our Buy recommendation.

*E=Liberum Capital estimates

Stock Performance

Providence raised c.US$100m by Placing 13.1m new shares (26% of the old share capital) at 480p, a 5% premium to the pre-Placing price. The funds will be used to repay the outstanding convertible bond (c.US$40m) and meet the costs of the 2012-13 drilling programme. The Barryroe well was successful and the important X12 development well at Singleton should complete next month. An exploration well on the Dalkey Island oil prospect and an appraisal well on the Dragon gas discovery are scheduled for H2 2012. In 2013, we expect exploration wells on Dunquin and Rathlin and an appraisal well on Spanish Point. Success with any of the Irish wells will have a material impact on valuations. We estimate that after repaying the balance of the convertible,
Providence will have c.40m (US$55m) cash. We assume it does not farm out any further interests and incurs drilling costs of c.15m (US$20m) in the remainder of 2012 and c.27m (US$36m) in 2013. There should be sufficient cash available to fund this allowing for some surplus cash generation from Singleton. Any further farm-outs would add to available cash at the end of 2013.

450 350 250 150 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12



Price Performance Price Absolute Relative to: FTSE ALL-SH Relative to: FTSE 100 INDEX Source: Bloomberg

1M 395 38% 43% 43%

3M 206 164% 158% 162%

12M 267 104% 116% 117%

Summary Financials & Valuation

Year end: December 2012E Production (WI, mboed) 0.8 Production growth (%) 60% EBITDAX (m) 16.2 Net CF ops (m) 9.6 Adj Earnings (m) 2.2 Adj EPS ( cents) 3.9 EPS growth (%) (111%) DPS (p) 0.0 ROACE 3% Net debt / equity na PER 144.1 EV/DACF 28.3 Dividend yield 0% FCF yield (13%) NAV 10 (p) 1045 EMV (p) 1344 Source: Liberum Capital estimates 2013E 1.2 56% 28.9 15.4 9.4 15.0 283% 0.0 6% 3% 33.7 20.3 0% (8%) 2014E 1.2 0% 27.6 15.4 9.4 15.0 (0%) 0.0 5% 16% 33.8 22.1 0% (7%)

Following the well results, we now assume Barryroe contains 100

mmb oil (up from 50 mmb) and that Providence farms down to 40% in return for a development carry. Our value of Barryroe and Singleton is now c.1045p. In addition, our risked value of just the appraisal drilling programme is c.400p with huge potential upside from exploration drilling. We have set our price target at 1250p (our base NAV + half the risked appraisal value), up from 880p, and hope to increase that further. We retain a BUY recommendation.

Andrew Whittock
+44 (0)20 3100 2073 andrew.whittock@liberumcapital.com

Rob Mundy
+44 (0)20 3100 2107 rob.mundy@liberumcapital.com

This document is a marketing communication and is not independent research prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to a prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. For Reg-AC certification, see the end of the text. Liberum Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this communication. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

10 April 2012

Providence Resources

2P Bcf boe boed bpd EMV F&D mbd Proven + probable Billion cubic feet Barrels of oil equivalent Barrels of oil equivalent per day Barrels per day Expected monetary value (of exploration activity) Finding and development Thousands of barrels per day

mboed Thousands or barrels of oil equivalent per day mcf Thousands of cubic feet

mmcfd Millions of cubic feet per day mmb Millions of barrels

mmboe Millions of barrels of oil equivalent NAV The value including debt of current oil & gas assets

STOIIP Oil initially in place Tcf Trillions of cubic feet


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

Material upgrade to expectations

After the highly successful Barryroe appraisal well, Providence has raised new equity funding to finance the remainder of its current drilling programme (and repay the convertible bond). We have updated our forecasts to reflect these developments and retain our Buy recommendation with a revised 1250p price target.

The Placing
Providence has placed 13.1m new shares at 480p per share, raising gross proceeds of c.63m (US$100m) before expenses. The net proceeds will be used:

To repay the balance of the convertible bond that matures in July 2012. The net
amount payable is estimated to be c.US$40m.

To fund the extra cost of the Barryroe drilling programme, following the increase
in Providences participation from 50% to 80% last December, and to provide funds for further technical studies. These costs are estimated to be around US$30m.

The balance of the proceeds (US$30m) together with existing cash resources
and cash generated from Singleton operations, will be used to fund the ongoing multi well drilling programme, offshore Ireland and onshore UK. The Placing was oversubscribed and completed at a price that was a 5% premium to the pre Placing closing price. The redemption of the convertible bond simplifies the capital structure, releases cash flow from servicing the bonds 12% coupon and addresses any remaining concerns about Providences financing.

Barryroe recap
The first well in the drilling programme, Barryroe, was very successful. The results showed that the field is bigger in overall size, thicker in reservoir intervals, and delivered better flow rates with much lighter, more mobile sweet crude than had been expected. The well flowed 3,514 bpd oil and 2.93 mmcfd gas (c. 4,000 boed) from the oil interval, far above pre-drill estimates of 1,800 bpd. In addition, an upper gas zone flowed, through constrained test equipment, at more than 7 mmcfd gas and is estimated to be capable of flowing at 23 mmcfd. Oil quality was much better than expected at 42o API, wax content of 20% and viscosity of 0.70 centipoises (compared to a pre-drill expectation of 3-4 centipoises). The very high mobility of the crude suggests materially higher flow rates can be achieved particularly when horizontal wells are used, as planned. The basal sand reservoir is very extensive and has been seen in many other wells across large parts of the Celtic Sea Basin. However, it was never seen as a continuous basal reservoir until now. Based on new pressure data obtained from this well, and correlated regionally, the Barryroe oil water contact is estimated to be substantially deeper than previously thought, pointing to scope for significantly more hydrocarbons over a much broader area. Specifically at Barryroe, this primary basal sandstone reservoir can now be seen in the previous 5 wells that have been drilled to this depth. They cover a strike (east to west) of approximately 20 km, or a total spatial area of some c.300 km2.


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

Management states that is equivalent in size to a medium to large sized North Sea oil field. All the data are now being integrated with the 3D seismic to update the resource and reserve volumetrics ahead of progressing field development plans. While this process proceeds, Providence will engage with suitably qualified farminees with specific expertise in offshore field development and operations with a view to mitigating the companys development capex exposure in return for equity/operatorship. Reserve assumptions raised Audited RPS Energy pre-drill estimates of P50 recoverable resources were 59 mmb oil, based on a STOIIP of 373 mmb. However, these numbers are now expected to increase materially based on the well results and we have decided to upgrade our own assumptions. The RPS Energy audit for Lansdowne in 2010 indicated P50 and P10 STOIIP for Barryroe of 373 and 893 mmb oil, respectively. The corresponding 2C and 3C technically recoverable contingent resources were 59 and 144 mmb oil. It is too early to quantify the likely increase in resources with any certainty. However, the in place resources should be positively impacted by the increased sands and deeper oil water contact. The RPS report focussed on the shallower oil bearing sands, not the basal sands, so these sands will need to be factored in. And there is the potential for increased recovery rates from oil that is more mobile than expected. Finally, the use of horizontal wells with artificial lift (such as electrical submersible pumps) provides an opportunity to materially uplift oil production rates from the vertical well test. Figure 1 illustrates the impact of different quantities of oil-in-place and recovery factors on estimates of recoverable reserves. The RPS P50 case of 59mmb recoverable oil was based on 373mmb STOIIP and a recovery factor of 16%.
Figure 1: Barryroe reserves with different STOIIP and recovery factors (mmb)
STOIIP (mmb) Recovery factor 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Liberum Capital estimates 373 37 56 75 93 546 55 82 109 137 719 72 108 144 180 893 89 134 179 223

If the STOIIP increased to the P10 893 mmb and the recovery factor to 20%, Barryroe could contain 180mmb recoverable oil. It is straightforward to see that the field could be 150mmb or more, equivalent to a medium to large sized North Sea field. Ahead of the update on resources, we have decided to incorporate a 100 mmb oil field in our Providence base case, which may still prove to be conservative. Providence has made clear that it will seek suitably qualified farminees with specific expertise in offshore field development and operations to mitigate the companys development capex exposure in return for equity/operatorship. We assume that Providence retains a 40% interest in a 100mmb field and is carried through the development.


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

Drilling programme
Figure 2 sets out our current understanding of the drilling programme (with the EMV in Figure 8). The important X12 development well at Singleton is ongoing and should complete late next month. Then we expect an exploration well on the Dalkey Island oil prospect and an appraisal well on the Dragon gas discovery to be drilled in H2 2012. A Spanish Point appraisal well and the Dunquin exploration well are planned for H1 2013 and Rathlin should be drilled in H2 2013. Success with any of the Irish wells will have a material impact on valuations.
Figure 2: Providence Resources - Drilling programme, 2011-13
Well Type WI Singleton Development 99.1% Dalkey Island Exploration 50.0% Dragon Appraisal 56.0% Spanish Point Appraisal 32.0% Dunquin Exploration 16.0% Rathlin Exploration 100.0% Total Source: Company, Liberum Capital estimates Operator Providence Providence Providence Providence ExxonMobil Providence Expected start date 07-Dec-11 Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Pre-drill target (100%) NA 250 mmb oil 200 bcf 26 mmb oil + 415 bcf gas 316 mmb oil + 8.4 Tcf gas TBC 592 mmb oil + 9.0 Tcf gas Net mmboe NA 125 mmb oil 18 mmboe 30 mmboe 275 mmboe TBC 448 mmboe

Financial forecasts
We have updated our forecasts to incorporate the impact of the Placing, a larger than previously expected Barryroe development and the latest timing of drilling plans and expenditures. The financial forecasts are set out in Figures 4-6, based on the key environmental assumptions and production forecasts detailed in Figure 3. The critical operational assumptions are that the Barryroe field contains 100 mmb oil, is developed for first production in 2015 and that Providence reduces its interest in the asset to 40% in exchange for a carry through development.
Figure 3: Key assumptions
Brent price, US$/bbl US$ / US$ / WI production, mboed Source: Liberum Capital estimates 2010A 80 1.55 1.33 0.5 2011E 111 1.60 1.39 0.5 2012E 120 1.55 1.33 0.8 2013E 110 1.55 1.33 1.2 2014E 105 1.55 1.33 1.2 2015E 100 1.55 1.33 6.5

We still await the results for 2011 which may have been a transition year with some balance sheet tidying up after the sale of the US assets, other pre-licence expenditure write-offs and the unwinding of uneconomic hedges. We expect a significant one-off hit to finance costs. Our forecasts show that we expect Providence to report small profits from 2012 until Barryroe starts contributing in 2015.


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

Figure 4: Providence Resources Income Statement (m)

Year end December Revenue Cost of Sales Gross profit Admin expenses Other Exploration write-off Total operating profit Finance Revenue Finance Costs Profit before tax Income tax Profit after tax Minority interest Net income EBITDAX EPS ( cents) EPS (p) Realised price, US$ / boe Unit Opex, US$ / boe Unit DD&A, US$ / boe Unit Net income, US$ / boe Source: Liberum Capital estimates 2010A 11.1 (4.7) 6.4 (3.6) (1.4) 0.0 1.5 0.2 (7.7) (6.0) (3.8) (9.8) 0.0 (9.8) 9.6 (29.5) (25.4) 80.1 (24.9) 58.6 (70.9) 2011E 14.2 (4.1) 10.1 (4.1) (4.6) 0.0 1.4 0.6 (17.0) (15.0) 0.0 (15.0) 0.0 (15.0) 3.4 (36.0) (31.2) 109.6 16.4 15.3 (115.6) 2012E 24.7 (7.7) 17.0 (4.8) 0.0 (6.8) 5.4 0.3 (2.6) 3.1 (0.9) 2.2 0.0 2.2 16.2 3.9 3.4 113.5 17.1 18.2 10.2 2013E 37.2 (9.7) 27.5 (4.8) 0.0 (9.1) 13.6 1.2 (1.7) 13.1 (3.7) 9.4 0.0 9.4 28.9 15.0 12.9 109.5 10.3 18.2 27.8 2014E 36.0 (9.7) 26.3 (4.8) 0.0 (9.1) 12.4 0.0 0.7 13.1 (3.7) 9.4 0.0 9.4 27.6 15.0 12.8 105.7 10.3 18.2 27.7 2015E 199.2 (68.8) 130.3 (4.8) 0.0 (9.1) 116.4 0.0 1.3 117.7 (33.0) 84.8 0.0 84.8 161.7 134.7 115.5 100.2 16.4 18.2 42.7

The cash flow forecasts are of more interest. We expect cash flow from operations to be positive and to grow as the production from Singleton increases. Its contribution covers all operating and overhead costs. Last year, Providence raised US$66m from an equity placing, c.US$25m from asset sales and US$60m from a pre-paid oil swap transaction with Deutsche Bank. It acquired some seismic and commenced drilling on Barryroe in November. We estimate that at the end of 2011 it had net cash of around 3m with around 32m of the convertible bonds outstanding. So far this year, Providence has completed Barryroe (with an 80% interest), commenced drilling at Singleton, secured an additional US$6m from asset sales and raised US$100m (75m) from Placing new shares.
Figure 5: Providence Resources Cash Flow Statement (m)
Year end December Profit/(Loss) before tax Exploration write-off DD&A Change in working capital Tax paid Other Cash flow from operations Purchase of Oil & Gas PPE Purchase of Other PPE Exploration capex Acquisition/Disposals Interest Received Net cash used in investing Net proceeds from share issues Repayment of Convertible Other Increase in net cash DACF FCF Source: Liberum Capital estimates 2010A (33.5) 1.3 8.1 (0.5) (0.0) 27.7 3.0 (9.0) 0.0 (1.7) 0.0 0.2 (10.5) 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.2 16.4 0.6 2011E (15.0) 0.0 2.0 (1.5) 0.0 13.9 (0.6) (8.6) (0.1) (29.2) 18.2 0.6 (19.1) 45.2 (7.7) 20.0 37.7 7.2 (12.5) 2012E 3.1 6.8 4.0 (2.0) (3.4) 1.2 9.6 (11.3) (0.1) (45.3) 4.6 0.3 (51.8) 75.7 (32.1) 15.8 17.2 10.5 (41.3) 2013E 13.1 9.1 6.2 (2.9) (10.4) 0.3 15.4 (11.3) (0.1) (30.3) 0.0 1.2 (40.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (25.0) 15.9 (26.0) 2014E 13.1 9.1 6.2 0.3 (12.3) (1.0) 15.4 (6.0) (0.1) (30.3) 0.0 0.0 (36.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (21.0) 15.6 (20.7) 2015E 117.7 9.1 36.2 (41.8) (39.8) (3.0) 78.4 (6.0) (0.1) (30.3) 0.0 0.0 (36.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.0 79.6 43.7


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

We estimate that after repaying the balance of the convertible, Providence will have c.40m cash, a US$60m pre-paid swap debt facility with Deutsche Bank and cash flow from Singleton. Singleton cash flows cover all overhead expenses so cash balances can be used to fund the remaining 2012-13 drilling programme. The spend will depend on the timing of drilling and the working interests that Providence retains in its drilling ventures. We assume that it does not farm out any further interests and drills Dalkey Island and Dragon this year with Spanish Point, Dunquin and Rathlin drillied in 2013. On this basis, we estimate Providence will incur drilling costs of c.15m (US$20m) in the remainder of 2012 and c.27m (US$36m) in 2013. There should be sufficient cash available to fund this allowing for some surplus cash generation from Singleton and/or the farm-out of interests in Dragon, Spanish Point or Dunquin. We believe Providence has the flexibility to complete the drilling programme. We expect Barryroe to start contributing in 2015 and move the Group to generating significant cash surpluses.
Figure 6: Providence Resources Summary Balance Sheet (m)
Year end December Intangible assets PP&E Non-current assets Inventory Receivables Cash Other Total assets Short term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long term debt Convertible bond Other long term liabilities Total non current liabilities Net assets Net debt (cash) excl Convertible Source: Liberum Capital estimates 2010A 10.1 61.0 71.2 0.0 3.6 11.7 14.3 100.7 (2.7) (13.2) (15.9) (43.3) (39.8) (25.5) (108.6) (23.7) 34.3 2011E 39.2 63.4 102.6 0.0 4.6 6.1 14.3 127.6 (2.7) (13.7) (16.4) 0.0 (32.1) (25.5) (57.6) 53.6 (3.4) 2012E 77.7 70.7 148.4 0.0 8.0 23.3 14.3 194.0 (2.7) (15.1) (17.8) 0.0 0.0 (25.5) (25.5) 150.8 (20.7) 2013E 98.9 75.8 174.7 0.0 12.0 0.0 14.3 201.0 (2.7) (16.2) (18.9) (1.7) 0.0 (25.5) (27.2) 155.0 4.4 2014E 120.1 75.6 195.7 0.0 11.6 0.0 14.3 221.6 (2.7) (16.1) (18.8) (22.7) 0.0 (25.5) (48.2) 154.6 25.4 2015E 141.3 45.5 186.8 0.0 64.1 19.3 14.3 284.5 (2.7) (26.8) (29.5) 0.0 0.0 (25.5) (25.5) 229.5 (16.6)


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

We believe Providence has a balanced and attractive portfolio of assets that offer low risk volume growth and exposure to material exploration upside from wells that, individually, appear unlikely to absorb significant cash resources. Here, we present our estimates of the value of commercial assets and the potential value of the imminent exploration drilling campaign. Asset values Figure 7 sets out our estimated DCF values for Providences assets, based on the assumptions detailed in Figure 3 and our understanding of costs and fiscal regimes. We ascribe value to Singleton and Barryroe and conservatively include adjustments to reflect the costs of G&A and unsuccessful exploration.
Figure 7: Providence Resources - NAV
Interest Discounted at: Commercial reserves UK Ireland Oil mmb Gas bcf Total mmboe Value US$m @ US$ / boe @ 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 9.0% 141 1,104 (112) 1,133 68 (20) (35) 1,146 133 1,037 (104) 1,067 68 (19) (35) 1,080 125 976 (96) 1,005 68 (19) (34) 1,0220 18.9 25.9 p / share 9.0% 136 1063 (106) 1093 70 (20) (35) 1107

8.0% 145 1131 (115) 1161 70 (20) (36) 1174

10.0% 129 1000 (99) 1030 70 (20) (35) 1045

Singleton Barryroe Barryroe NPI

99.1% 40.0%

7.1 40.0 47.1

0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 40.0 47.1

Total 2P reserves Net (debt) cash G&A Exploration costs Net commercial assets Source: Liberum Capital estimates




Our base case valuation (and financial forecasts) includes the development of Barryroe. We assume around 100mmb oil is developed using a fixed wellhead platform and a leased FPSO, with plateau production at 40,000 bpd oil. If Providence retained an 80% interest in the development, we estimate the NPV10 would be US$905m (1019p per share) net of the San Leon NPI. However, management has stated that it will seek to bring in a partner to operate the development and minimise its own financial exposure during the development phase. Our base case assumes Providence retains a 40% working interest in return for a carry of its development costs. This outcome has a NPV10 of US$880m (901p per share). Overall, we value Providences current commercial assets at 1045p, around 90% above the current share price. Moreover, there could be material upside to our valuation not only from Barryroe recoverable resources but also from successful appraisal of other discoveries. Our NAV is a snapshot value of the assets that we believe are commercial today. We base it on current most likely reserve quantities, include a view on the timing of developments in our asset valuations and do not obscure values by making arbitrary risk adjustments. Normally, we would argue that NAV is just the value of cash flow from todays assets and does not incorporate a view on the value that will be created through future reinvestment. This is particularly important for Providence, as it implements its drilling plans and there should be upside to the asset value from future appraisal or exploration success.


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

EMV We illustrate the potential upside with our estimate of the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of the remaining drilling programme. We recognise risked value for all the planned wells except those on Barryroe and Singleton (which are in our base NAV) and Rathlin Island, where the prospect size is still to be fully assessed. Each of the wells offers material upside if successful. The chance of success with the appraisal wells should be high given the control from earlier drilling data and seismic. We assume chances of success of 60-75% that do not appear unrealistic.
Figure 8: Providence Resources - EMV
Country Well Net interest % Value $/bbl Estimated spud date Pre-drill target mmboe 34 95 Net Res mmboe Chance of success Value of Net Dry hole Risked EMV success cost US$ m p/share p/share 250 394 14 20 183 223 406 399 539 937 1344

Appraisal Programme: Ireland Dragon Ireland Spanish Point Total Appraisal EMV Exploration Programme: Ireland Dalkey Island Ireland Dunquin Total Exploration EMV Total gross Source: Liberum Capital estimates

56.0% 32.0%

10.00 10.00

Sep-12 Apr-13

19 30

75% 60%

50.0% 16.0%

10.00 10.00

Aug-12 Jun-13

250 1,716 2,096

125 275 449

25% 16%

1619 3556 5820

6 14 54

On this basis, and given Providences high working interests, there is low risk, material upside from Spanish Point (400p) and Dragon (250p). Either of these appraisal wells could have a very material impact on valuation. The exploration wells on Dalkey Island and Dunquin are even more exciting. The chance of success of Dunquin and its prospect size reflect the current Providence and ExxonMobil views, supported by subsequent farminees ENI and Repsol; the Dalkey Island assessment benefits from its similarities with proven hydrocarbon fields in Liverpool Bay. Success with either prospect would transform valuations.

View on the shares

Providence has assembled an attractive portfolio of drilling opportunities that range from low risk appraisal of existing discoveries to high risk, potentially transformational exploration plays. This still does not appear to be reflected in the current share price. Our value of todays commercial resources is more than 1000p, which we believe is conservative given the forthcoming review of Barryroe resources. In addition, we estimate the risked value of the appraisal drilling programme is around 400p with huge potential upside from exploration drilling. It appears that both the appraisal and exploration upside can be accessed for free at the current share price. Additionally, over and above the projects we have mentioned above, there is a range of other projects/prospects that offer opportunities to progress commercialisation, which further underpins the value proposition. We have set our price target at 1250p (our base NAV + half the risked appraisal value) and hope to increase that materially. We retain a BUY recommendation.


10 April 2012

Providence Resources

The circumstances in which this communication have been produced are such that it is inappropriate to characterise it as independent investment research, as it has not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Therefore, even if it contains a research recommendation, it should be treated as a marketing communication. The individuals who prepared this communication may be involved in providing other financial services to the company or companies referenced herein or to other companies who might be said to be competitors of the company or companies referenced herein. As a result, both Liberum Capital Limited (LCL) and the individual employees who prepared this communication may have responsibilities that conflict with the interests of the persons who receive this communication and information may be known to LCL or persons connected with it which is not reflected in this communication. Therefore, you should not rely on this communication as being an independent or impartial view of the value or prospects of any companies and/or investments referred to herein LCL has put in place procedures, systems and controls to identify, to prevent (where this is possible) conflicts of interest. LCL may rely on information barriers, such as Chinese Walls to ensure that conflicts of interest are appropriately managed. LCL has a conflicts management policy relating to its research and marketing communication activities, which is available on its website, http://liberumcapital.com/. In addition, a list of items which could create a conflict of interest and other material interests in relation to research material is set out on LCLs website (see Disclosures below). This communication is provided for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. This communication has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person or entity. LCL and/or its officers, directors and employees may have or take positions in securities of companies mentioned in this communication (or in any related investment) and may from time to time dispose of any such positions. If applicable, any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the offering memorandum (and supplements thereto) or offering circular issued in connection with such offering. LCL may act as a market maker in the securities of companies discussed in this communication (or in any related investments), may sell them or buy them from customers on a principal basis, and may also provide corporate finance or underwriting services for or relating to those companies, for which it is remunerated. LCL analysts, including the author of this report, receive compensation based on a number of factors including the quality of research, client feedback, firm profitability and normal competitive factors. The content of this communication may have been disclosed to the company referenced herein prior to dissemination in order to verify factual accuracy. All expressions of opinions and estimates constitute a judgement and are those of the author and the research department of LCL only and are subject to change without notice. LCL is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. LCL shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damages, including lost profits, arising in any way from use of all or any of the information contained in this communication. LCL may have issued other reports or documents that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from, the information contained in this communications. Those documents reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the individuals that prepared them. This communication is based on materials and sources that are believed to be reliable; however, they are not independently verified and are not guaranteed as being accurate. This communication is not guaranteed to be a complete statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments referred to therein. No representation or warranty either expressed or implied, is made nor responsibility of any kind is accepted by LCL, its directors, officers, employees or agents either as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication nor should it be relied on as such. This communication is provided with the understanding that LCL is not acting in a fiduciary capacity and it is not a personal recommendation to you. Investments in general involve some degree of risk. The value of and the income produced by products may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than he invested. Value and income may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Levels of taxation may change. The investments discussed in this communication may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should make their own investment decisions based upon their own financial objectives and financial resources and, if in any doubt, should seek advice from an investment advisor. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The stated price of any securities mentioned herein will generally be as at the end of the business day immediately prior to the publication date on this document, unless otherwise stated and is not a representative that any transaction can be effected at this price. In the United Kingdom: this communication is for the use of (a) professional clients and institutional counterparties (as those terms are defined by the rules of the Financial Services Authority of LCL and (b) other persons who are not clients of LCL who have expressed interest in receiving it and who are investment professionals (persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, as defined in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (as amended) and any other persons to whom this document for the purposes of sections 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 can otherwise lawfully be communicated). This communication may not be re-distributed, re-transmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any manner, without the express written consent of LCL. For the purpose of clarity, this communication is not intended for and should not be relied upon by Retail Clients (as defined by the rules of the Financial Services Authority) For EU investors: This communication is issued by Liberum Capital Limited (LCL). LCL is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority in connection with its distribution and for the conduct of designated investment business in the European Economic Area. The registered address of Liberum Capital Limited is Ropemaker Place, Level 12, 25 Ropemaker Street, London EC2Y 9LY. Telephone: 020 3100 2000. For US Investors Analyst Certification The analyst (s) who prepared this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his / her personal views about the subject securities or issuers. No part of his/her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. The analyst (s) responsible for preparing research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of Liberum Capital Inc. and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of Liberum Capital Inc. and its affiliates. Liberum Capital Limited may make a market in the securities of the issuer and may act as principal with regard to sales and purchases of this security. This publication has been approved by Liberum Capital Inc. (member of FINRA), which is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and which accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. Any U.S. recipient of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in a broker or dealer capacity and that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report, should contact and place orders with Liberum Capital Inc. Disclosures Please refer to http://www.liberumcapital.com/public/legal.jsp for detailed disclosures relating to: the meaning of LCLs investment ratings system (buy, hold, sell), quarterly information on the distribution of LCL buy, sell and hold ratings; giving within each category the proportion to which LCL provided corporate finance services in the last 12 months, previously published non-independent research on the companies mentioned herein, whether LCL acts as corporate finance adviser or provides investment banking services to the companies mentioned herein and receives remuneration thereto. whether LCL has in the last 12 months lead or co-managed an offer of securities for the companies mentioned herein. whether LCL and / or its affiliates held more than 1% of the issued share capital of the companies mentioned herein. whether LCL makes markets in the shares of the companies mentioned herein. whether the author of this communication is a director or officer of any company mentioned herein, whether the author or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report received or purchased shares in the companies mentioned herein prior to a public offering.



Innes Urquhart
Alternatives & Funds +44 (0)20 3100 2252 innes.urquhart@liberumcapital.com

Cormac Leech
Banks +44 (0)20 3100 2264 cormac.leech@liberumcapital.com

Peter Hyde

Alexia Dogani

Business Services, Leisure & Transport Business Services, Leisure & Transport +44 (0)20 3100 2094 +44 (0)20 3100 2254 peter.hyde@liberumcapital.com alexia.dogani@liberumcapital.com

Charlie Campbell
Construction & Building Materials +44 (0)20 3100 2090 charlie.campbell@liberumcapital.com

Pablo Zuanic
Consumer Goods +1 212 596 4814 pablo.zuanic@liberumcapital.com

Lisa Hau
Consumer Goods +44 (0)20 3100 2098 lisa.hau@liberumcapital.com

Ian Whittaker
Media +44 (0)20 3100 2089 ian.whittaker@liberumcapital.com

Dominic OKane
Mining, Metals +44 (0)20 3100 2091 dominic.okane@liberumcapital.com

Richard Knights
Mining, Metals +44 (0)20 3100 2087 richard.knights@liberumcapital.com

Ash Lazenby
Mining, Metals +44 (0)20 3100 2085 ash.lazenby@liberumcapital.com

Andrew Whittock
Oil & Gas +44 (0)20 3100 2073 andrew.whittock@liberumcapital.com

Rob Mundy
Oil & Gas +44 (0)20 3100 2107 rob.mundy@liberumcapital.com

Naresh Chouhan
Pharmaceuticals +44 (0)20 3100 2095 naresh.chouhan@liberumcapital.com

Roger Franklin
Pharmaceuticals +44 (0)20 3100 2096 roger.franklin@liberumcapital.com

Alison Watson
Real Estate +44 (0)20 3100 2276 alison.watson@liberumcapital.com

Conor Finn
Real Estate +44 (0)20 3100 2257 conor.finn@liberumcapital.com

Nick Walker

Sophie Jourdier

Simon Irwin

Renewable Energy, Agriculture & Water Renewable Energy, Agriculture & Water Retail +44 (0)20 3100 2267 +44 (0)20 3100 2072 +44 (0)20 3100 2097 nick.walker@liberumcapital.com sophie.jourdier@liberumcapital.com simon.irwin@liberumcapital.com

Vicki Land
Retail +44 (0)20 3100 2217 vicki.land@liberumcapital.com

Adam Collins
Specialty Chemicals & Materials +44 (0)20 3100 2075 adam.collins@liberumcapital.com

Janardan Menon
Technology +44 (0)20 3100 2076 janardan.menon@liberumcapital.com

Eoin Lambe
Technology +44 (0)20 3100 2191 eoin.lambe@liberumcapital.com

Joe Brent
UK Small & Mid Cap +44 (0)20 3100 2272 joe.brent@liberumcapital.com

William Shirley
UK Small & Mid Cap +44 (0)20 3100 2271 william.shirley@liberumcapital.com

Ben Bourne
UK Small & Mid Cap +44 (0)20 3100 2275 ben.bourne@liberumcapital.com

Patrick Coffey
UK Small & Mid Cap +44 (0)20 3100 2192 patrick.coffey@liberumcapital.com

Jack O'Brien
UK Small & Mid Cap +44 (0)20 3100 2273 jack.obrien@liberumcapital.com

Dominic Nash
Utilities +44 (0)20 3100 2088 dominic.nash@liberumcapital.com

Guillaume Redgwell
Utilities +44 (0)20 3100 2195 guillaume.redgwell@liberumcapital.com

Equity Sales London

David Parsons
+44 (0)20 3100 2125 david.parsons@liberumcapital.com

Simon Champ
+44 (0)20 3100 2112 simon.champ@liberumcapital.com

Charlie Bendon
+44 (0)20 3100 2078 charles.bendon@liberumcapital.com

Edward Blair
+44 (0)20 3100 2117 edward.blair@liberumcapital.com

Julian Collett
+44 (0)20 3100 2113 julian.collett@liberumcapital.com

Mark Edwards
+44 (0)20 3100 2104 mark.edwards@liberumcapital.com

Tim Mayo
+44 (0) 20 3100 2127 tim.mayo@liberumcapital.com

Alex Paterson
+44 (0)20 3100 2119 alex.paterson@liberumcapital.com

Archie Soames
+44 (0)20 3100 2193 archie.soames@liberumcapital.com

Sean Wade
+44 (0)20 3100 2114 sean.wade@liberumcapital.com

Iain Whiteley
+44 (0)20 3100 2126 iain.whiteley@liberumcapital.com

Paul Rostas
+44 (0)20 3100 2251 paul.rostas@liberumcapital.com

Nicole Kwan
+44 (0)20 3100 2259 nicole.kwan@liberumcapital.com

James Bouverat
+44 (0)20 3100 2253 james.bouverat@liberumcapital.com

Steve Tredget
+44 (0)20 3100 2236 steve.tredget@liberumcapital.com

Rory Stokes
+44 (0)20 3100 2237 rory.stokes@liberumcapital.com

Fergus Marcroft
+44 (0)20 3100 2242 fergus.marcroft@liberumcapital.com

Sean Dixon
+44 (0)20 3100 2124 sean.dixon@liberumcapital.com

Tajender Sandhu
+44 (0)20 3100 2238 tajender.sandhu@liberumcapital.com

Thomas Inskip
+44 (0)20 3100 2274 thomas.inskip@liberumcapital.com

Sales Trading London

Nina Dixon
+44 (0)20 3100 2109 nina.dixon@liberumcapital.com

Nick Worthington
+44 (0)20 3100 2106 nick.worthington@liberumcapital.com

Paul Beamont
+44 (0)20 3100 2115 paul.beamont@liberumcapital.com

David Thompson
+44 (0)20 3100 2062 david.thompson@liberumcapital.com

Paul Somers
+44 (0)20 3100 2063 paul.somers@liberumcapital.com

Mark J. Edwards
+44 (0)20 3100 2061 mark.j.edwards@liberumcapital.com

Keith Raulli
+44 (0)20 3100 2116 keith.raulli@liberumcapital.com

Harry Preece
+44 (0)20 3100 2118 harry.preece@liberumcapital.com

Jonathan Plant
+44 (0)20 3100 2102 jonathan.plant@liberumcapital.com

Dominic Lowres
+44 (0)20 3100 2103 dominic.lowres@liberumcapital.com

Simon Warrener
+44 (0)20 3100 2105 simon.warrener@liberumcapital.com

Peter Turner
+44 (0)20 3100 2170 peter.turner@liberumcapital.com

Simon Smith
+44 (0)20 3100 2171 simon.smith@liberumcapital.com

Richard Tomblin
+44 (0)20 3100 2172 richard.tomblin@liberumcapital.com

Equity Sales New York

Mark Godridge
+1 212 596 4823 mark.godridge@liberumcapital.com

Jimbo Quaile
+1 212 596 4801 jimbo.quaile@liberumcapital.com

Harry Jaffe
+1 212 596 4811 harry.jaffe@liberumcapital.com

Larry Stevens
+1 212 596 4812 lawrence.stevens@liberumcapital.com

Sarah Port
+1 212 596 4818 sarah.port@liberumcapital.com

Tamzin Manning
+1 212 596 4807 tamzin.manning@liberumcapital.com

Robert Kaplan
+1 212 596 4817 robert.kaplan@liberumcapital.com

Kulvir Parmar
+1 212 596 4813 kulvir.parmar@liberumcapital.com

Market Making
STX 77440
+44 (0)20 3100 2200

Liberum Capital Limited

Ropemaker Place, Level 12, 25 Ropemaker Street, London, EC2Y 9LY Tel: +44 (0)20 3100 2000 Fax: +44 (0)20 3100 2299 www.liberumcapital.com Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Registered in England & Wales No. 5912554