Louisiana Tech University

ENGR 489c / 589c

Global Warming
By: Evan Bryant April 24, 2012

Global Warming
Evan Bryant Louisiana Tech University Ruston, LA 71272

Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report that suggests anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming. The IPCC report is based on a computer simulation that was flawed because of inflated input data, and unfounded assumptions. There is actual empirical evidence that the warming trend that was witnessed is receding. The implications of the report have caused and will cause a hindrance to the growth and progress of the world.

Introduction:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to give the governments of the world scientific data of what is happening to the worlds climate. The results of the study performed by the IPCC led governments to believe that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses such as CO2 are responsible for global warming. The study states that temperatures will raise 1.8 4 C at 2090 2099 relative to 1980 1999 because of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses [1]. The results of these studies culminated in a global warming conference in Bali, Indonesia where heads of state, government bureaucrats, environmental activists, and news media joined forces to generate and induce mandates to reduce man-made carbon dioxide emissions in order to avert the catastrophic consequences of global warming. These proposed mandates would significantly hinder the economies of the world, especially the economies of developing nations [2]. This report is intended to analyze the validity of the IPCC report, provide scientific evidence to the contrary of the IPCC report, and explain the implications of both sides of the argument.

Validity of the IPCC Report:

The IPCC report released in 2007 illustrates the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, the people who performed this study put inflated numbers into a computer simulation based on a positive-feedback scenario and said that if we do not reduce these emissions, global warming will trend upward and destabilize food supply, infrastructure, health, water resources, coastal systems, ecosystems, global biogeochemical cycles, ice sheets and modes of oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Christopher Monckton, who once advised Margaret Thatcher, demonstrated via 30 equations that computer models used by the UNs climate panel (IPCC) were pre-programmed with overstated values for the three variables whose product is climate sensitivity (temperature increase in response to greenhouse-gas increase), resulting in a 500-2000% overstatement of CO2s effect on temperature in the IPCCs latest climate assessment report, published in 2007 [3]. Lord Moncktons paper which was published in the peer-reviewed Physics and Society revealed that: The IPCCs 2007 climate summary overstated CO2s impact on temperature by 5002000%; CO2 enrichment will add little more than 1 F (0.6 C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;

Not one of the three key variables whose product is climate sensitivity can be measured directly; The IPCCs values for these key variables are taken from only four published papers, not 2,500; The IPCCs values for each of the three variables, and hence for climate sensitivity, are overstated; Global warming halted ten years ago, and surface temperature has been falling for seven years; Not one of the computer models relied upon by the IPCC predicted so long and rapid a cooling; The IPCC inserted a table into the scientists draft, overstating the effect of ice-melt by 1000%; It was proved 50 years ago that predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible; Mars, Jupiter, Neptunes largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed; In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years. Positive feedback, the main assumption of the study, relies on the assumption that as CO2 is released in the air it will increase temperatures, which will then evaporate more water creating more water vapor, which is a greenhouse gas itself, which will then increase temperatures even more [4]. The problem with this assumption is that it has not been scientifically proven. They made an assumption that upper tropospheric specific humidity has increased since 1980 based on weather balloon readings that did not detect a significant change in relative humidity and the assumption that temperatures are rising in the upper troposphere [5]. Figure 1 illustrates that specific humidity is actually falling at high elevations.

Figure 1: Specific Humidity at 30,000 feet [6].

Any scientific study should be thoroughly reviewed by experts in the field the study is attributed to. The IPCC report was written by 612 authors who often co-authored papers together. Of the 309 reviewers of this report, 23 were governments and 95 were the authors of the report. Of the 95 authors, 30 of them reviewed the chapter that they wrote. So 10% of the peer review was authors of the report reading what they already wrote. 31% of the peer review was done by the original authors. 8% of the peer review was by governments rather than scientists [7]. Approximately 40% of the peer review should be discounted.

Evidence to the Contrary:

Many scientists disagree with the findings of the IPCC report. 49 former NASA scientists and astronauts sent a letter to NASA requesting that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. They also said that they believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. [8]. Scientists sent a letter to the Secretary General of the United Nations saying that climate change science is in a period of negative discovery - the more we learn about this exceptionally complex and rapidly evolving field the more we realize how little we know. Truly, the science is NOT settled. [9]. Figure 2 is a graph of temperature anomalies that are predicted by computer models, and the actual global temperatures recorded.

Figure 2: Models versus reality. [10]

The polar ice caps that were supposed to melt started melting, and then they recovered as can be seen in Figure 3 below. Figure 3 shows the area of the global sea ice from 1979 to about 2008. The natural pattern from the graph is that the total area tends to recede and then recover, when it receded in the 2000s it recovered to the third highest reading since the commencement of records in 1979.

Figure 3: Area of global sea ice. [11] Figure 4 shows that sea levels have risen at a constant rate since the early 1800s. Sea levels have not risen drastically as the IPCC predicted.

Figure 4: Sea levels since 1700.

Table 1 shows the number of major hurricanes that have hit the United States per decade since 1850. There has been no major trend to suggest that hurricanes are more frequent as the IPCC suggests. Saffir-Simpson Category1 Decade 1851-1860 1861-1870 1871-1880 1881-1890 1891-1900 1901-1910 1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 1 8 8 7 8 8 10 10 5 4 8 8 3 6 9 3 4 2 5 6 6 9 5 4 4 3 7 6 1 5 2 1 6 2 3 5 1 7 4 5 4 4 3 6 9 5 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 0 0 1 3 0 3 2 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 All 1,2,3,4,5 19 15 20 22 21 18 21 13 19 24 17 14 12 15 14 19 Major 3,4,5 6 1 7 5 8 4 7 5 8 10 8 6 4 5 5 7

Table 1: Hurricanes that have hit the United States per decade since 1850. [12]

Figure 5 shows the number of recorded tornadoes in the U.S. since 1950. The only trend that can be seen is a downward trend, which is contrary to what the IPCC suggests.

Figure 5: Tornadoes since 1950. Figure 6 shows no upward trend in droughts which is also contrary to the IPCC report which predicts an increase in severe droughts.

Figure 6: Droughts since 1900. Figure 7 shows no significant trend in wet weather such as sever rain storms which were predicted to increase by the IPCC report.

Figure 7: Wet weather since 1900.

Implications of the Arguments:

The implications of global warming are that temperatures will increase causing polar ice caps to melt and the sea level to rise. This will cause recession of coastal areas and other devastating effects. Also, the increase in temperature will interfere with the biosphere, causing reductions in food supply, increase health risks for humans, and extreme weather events. All of this, they say, is because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Their solution is to limit the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by imposing strict regulations. The results of these regulations would hinder economic growth and prosperity across the world. If developing countries are not allowed to purchase and burn fossil fuels to the extent that they need, then they will not be able to grow and prosper. If developed countries, like the U.S., are not allowed to burn fossil fuels to the extent that they need, then they will not be able to sustain their needs. The implications of global warming not being true would lower standards on emissions. With the standards that are already in place and that have been implemented in plants and factories that would remain there since it has already been done, these lower standards would open the market for smaller businesses and entrepreneurs who could not previously enter the market because of high costs. Developing nations would have more resources to become developed. Developed

nations could thrive and privately research alternative energy and implement them because as far as I know, nobody had to ban horse transport for the automobile to be made.

Conclusions:
Global Warming needs to be studied, and empirical data needs to be taken. A computer simulation based on unfounded assumptions is not a good study to base such imposing policies on that interferes with and restricts the growth of the world. The empirical data that has been observed so far suggests that global warming trends are receding. Since global warming trends are receding and anthropogenic greenhouse gases are increasing, it would seem that anthropogenic greenhouse gases were not the cause of the warming trend between 1850 and 2000. Until empirical data is analyzed and global warming is proved or disproved, no strict policies should be placed on the people of the world. The direction of the global warming induced policy is to limit the amount of fossil fuels, and to expedite the implementation of alternative energy sources without fully studying them to make sure they are actually better and achieve the best efficiency possible to power the world.

References:

[1] IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. [2] Morano, M. (2007). 20071229 Marc Moranos Round up. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogsection&id=0&I temid=38 [3] Ferguson, R. (2008). Proved: There is no climate crisis. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from Science and Public Policy Institute, Web site: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/press_releases/Press-Release_No-ClimateCrisis.pdf [4] Hypothetical positive feedback, Retrieved April http://sites.google.com/site/globalwarmingquestions/ar4feed 24, 2012 from

[5] Stockwell, D. R. (2008). Niche Modeling: The Power of Numeracy . Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://landshape.org/enm/greenhouse-thermodynamics-of-water-vapor-andthe-ipcc/ [6] Watts, A. (2008). A Window on Water Vapor and Planetary Temperature Part 2. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/21/a-window-onwater-vapor-and-planetary-temperature-part-2/ [7] Mclean, J. (2007). An Analysis of the Review of the IPCC 4AR WG I Report. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from Science & Public Policy Institute, Web site: http://mclean.ch/climate/docs/IPCC_review_updated_analysis.pdf

[8] Lubin, G. (2012). 49 Former NASA Scientists Send A Letter Disputing Climate Change, In Business Insider. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://articles.businessinsider.com/201204-11/news/31322407_1_climate-change-nasa-scientists-gavin-schmidt [9] Herron, J. (2009). 141 Scientists Sign Letter Sent to UN Secretary-General Questioning Global Warming. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/news.php?extend.123 [10] Yulsman, T. (2012). Natural Harmonic Climate Model Proven Superior To IPCC & NASA Failed Climate Models. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/03/failed-climate-models.html [11] Mcintyre, S. (2008). Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Reaches "Unprecedented" Levels. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://climateaudit.org/2008/05/04/world-sea-icereaches-levels-unprecedented-in-25-years/ [12] Blake, E. S., Jarrell, J. D. & Rappaport, E. N. (2005). U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade. Retrieved April 24, 2012 from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml