Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Cambodia: Violence Precedes Commune Elections Carlyle A. Thayer May 24, 2012

[client name deleted] There have been some pretty bad incidents of violence in Cambodia recently. We request your appreciation of whether or not there is any connection between the apparent uptick in volence and the coming commune elections. Last week, a 14-year-old girl was killed in Kratie when government forces staged what they said was a crackdown on a separatist movement. Hundreds of families were evicted and the area was sealed off to rights workers for days. This week, a similar thing has happened in Mondolkiri (but with no deaths) with hundreds of troops going in to evict families from a remote rubber plantation. In Phnom Penh, thousands of garment factory workers have been protesting for days, while 13 Boeng Kak activists were arrested this morning during a demonstration. These types of incidents are nothing new, but they seem to be happening on a grander scale and far more frequently than usual. Is there any connection between these incidents and the upcoming commune election? For instance, is this a way for the ruling Cambodian Peoples Party to intimidate voters or remind people of their power? ANSWER: It is my impression that government-instigated violence is on the rise in Cambodia and is the default position of security forces and police when confronted with public demonstrations and non-violent resistance. This reflects Cambodias culture of impunity and lack of effective controls on government enforcement authorities. Historically, the government has resorted to less public forms of intimidation at election time. However the commune elections are different from elections held for higher positions in that the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) has gained a number of seats and as a result the Cambodia Peoples Party must share power at the local level. If one looks at elections results since the RSP was founded the main trend is one of increasing its share of the vote. Security officials at all levels will work overtime to ensure a CPP victory. The confluence of public protest and the coming commune elections only intensifies the concern of CPP officials to maintain control. In sum, there is connection between violence against public protests and the commune elections. But if there were no commune elections, Cambodia would still be witnessing violence against public protesters.

2 Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Violence Precedes Commune Elections, Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing, 2012.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Cambodia: Will Uncertainty Rattle the CPP? Carlyle A. Thayer May 24, 2012

[client name deleted] Q1. The Sam Rainsy Party has seen a steady rise in support in past elections. Is the Cambodian Peoples Party feeling rattled this time around? Is that part of what we're seeing in terms of rising domestic violence? ANSWER: The CPP isnt a liberal democratic party that plays by the electoral rules. There is substantial evidence that it is the most popular political party in Cambodia. The CPP is also insecure in that it will not stop to manipulate and intimidate to ensure that it wins a commanding majority. Q2 Have the massive demographics shifts between this election and the last one worried the ruling part?. There are more first-time voters than ever before, more city dwellers voting than ever before, more awareness than ever before (marginal though it may be). Does this conspire to swing the vote toward the opposition at a greater rate than anticipated? ANSWER: It is my assessment that uncertainty caused by demographic shifts and urbanization would only fuel insecurity on the part of the CPP. It is the status quo party after all. Urban areas are the most likely source of support for opposition parties historically. The young have less at stake and are less vulnerable to traditional patterns of influence and intimidation. But other dynamics are at play in commune elections such as the performance of commune officials. Hun Sen has greater visibility than the exiled Sam Rainsy.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Will Uncertainty Rattle the CPP?, Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing, May 15, 2012.

Future Direction of Political System Electoral Trends, 1993-08

Party/Year

1993
38% 45 4 1 -

1998
41% 32 14

2003
47% 21 22

2008
58% 5 22

CPP FUNCINPEC BLDP MOLINAKA SRP

NRP
HRP

6
7

2007 Commune Election Results

Party/ Position Commune Chiefs 1st Deputy Chiefs 2nd Deputy Chiefs Council members

Total
7993 2660 274 425

CPP SRP
FUNCINPEC

1591 28 2 0

1125 403 47 46

185 963 155 317

5092 1266 70 62

NRP

First Council Elections May 2009

Party/Unit CPP SRP
FUNCINPEC

Provincial and Municipal

District and towns

76.3% 20.5% 2% 1.9%

74% 20.6% 2.4% 2.3%

NRP

Senate Election January 2012

Party CPP SRP 2006 Seats 2012 Seats % % 69.2 43 77.8 46 10.3 9 22.2 11

FUNCINPEC

20.4