Control 3 - Teora de Decisiones

21 de mayo de 2012
Sebastian Carrasco Arratia
Francisco Castro Uribe
Sea x1 , x2 , ..., xn v.a.s con distribuciones N (, 1).
1. Simular n = 100 observaciones con = 5.
En este caso se simularon valores de una N ormal(5, 1), por el metodo polar. A continuaci
on se
mostraran 24 de los 100 valores generados (para ver mas, ver el Anexo 1).
5.719223 5.516547 5.845926 4.242066 4.793810 5.605327 5.561369 7.004282
7.297069 3.550403 6.270640 5.120919 5.288616 4.772939 4.872241 2.922909
5.019312 5.643871 5.343521 3.943331 3.708726 3.782125 5.103262 3.771727
Luego se verifica si el vector entregado resulta distribuir normal, para confirmar que tan confiable
es la funci
on que genera los valores, para lo cual es necesario aplicar el Test de Shapiro.
Shapiro-Wilk normality test
data: normalita1
W = 0.9873, p-value = 0.4605
Se observa que el p-valor resulta ser muy alto, lo que implica que el vector generado distribuye de
forma Normal. El histograma queda de la siguiente forma.

2. Si () = 1, encontrar y gr
aficar (|x).

f (x|) =

n
Y
1 (xi )2
e 2
I< (xi )
2
i=1

n
2

f (x|) = (2)

n
P
(xi )2
i=1
2

I<n (x)

(|x) f (x|)()

(|x) e

n
P
(xi )2
i=1
2

(|x) e

P
P
xi +n2 )
( x2
i 2
2

(|x) e

(n2 2nx+nx2 nx2 )

2

(|x) e

n(x)2
2

(|x) e

enx

n(x)2
2

Este elemento corresponde al nucleo de una N ormal(x, 1/n), por lo tanto,

|x N ormal(x, 1/n)

Del cual, tomando n = 100 y x como el vector generado anteriormente, se obtiene el siguiente
histograma (para ver los valores generados para la creacion del histograma, ver Anexo2).

3. Simular 1000 valores de (|x) y comparar con 2.

En este caso, para simular los valores, se utilizara el mismo metodo usado en la pregunta 1, con
la diferencia que esta vez el n
umero generado sera de n = 1000, con |x N ormal(x, 1/100). Se

mostraran 24 de los 1000 valores generados (para ver mas, ir a Anexo 3).
5.036114 5.000837 5.280773 5.006262 5.009386 5.200573 4.815790 4.935803
5.229251 5.027310 5.153275 5.044738 5.032196 5.065649 4.998196 4.929099
5.103628 5.095025 5.282323 4.993240 5.108069 5.017965 4.957229 5.148881
Para lo cual, este vector ser
a analizado bajo el test de Shapiro, al igual que en el caso de la pregunta
1, para estudiar su normalidad.
Shapiro-Wilk normality test
data: normalita3
W = 0.9978, p-value = 0.2022
Viendo que tambien se cumple que distribuye de forma Normal. Luego se procede a observar el
histograma del vector generado.

Haciendo una comparaci

on entre 2 y 3, se observa que ambos distribuyen de forma normal con una
media muy similar, y que sus graficos resultan ser bastante similares, en cuanto al modo en que
distribuyen, solo varian en sus varianzas, sin afectar en la simetria que poseen ambos.

4. Sea = e comparar analiticamente y por simulacion las posterioris (|x).

(|x) = P ( < |X = x)

(|x) = P (e < |X = x)

(|x) = P ( < log|X = x)

(|x) = (log|x)/

1
(|x) = (log|x)

2
1 (logx)
(|x) = e 2n1

Esto corresponde al nucleo de una log N ormal(x, 1/n), por lo tanto,

|x log N ormal(x, 1/n)

Usando lo obtenido, se procede a generar valores para n = 1000, arrojando los siguientes resultados
(mostrando solo 24 de los 1000 valores simulados. Para ver los que siguen, ver Anexo 4).
153.0071 158.0572 158.0204 156.3652 153.6914 156.8838 152.4078 154.0039
154.5953 156.3410 156.2312 159.0116 158.6867 152.2128 153.0130 154.8733
155.5798 153.6105 154.4971 157.5580 155.5455 156.5266 155.1119 151.0655
Luego el histograma obtenido de estos valores es el siguiente.

Observando el gr
afico, el histograma corresponde a los valores generados, mientras que la curva
representa a la funci
on misma del Log-Normal, usando los parametros de x y 1/100, viendo que el
histograma se ajusta muy bien a esta, indicando que esta distribuye de manera muy aproximida a
un Log-Normal.

##################
## Anexo 1 ##
##################
Normalita<-function(mu,sigma,n){
w<-rep(0,n)
i<-1
while(i<=n){
u1<-runif(1)
u2<-runif(1)
v1<-2*u1-1
v2<-2*u2-1
s<-(v1**2)+(v2**2)
if(s<1){
x<-v1*sqrt((-2*log(s))/s)
w[i]<-mu+x*sqrt(sigma)
i<-i+1
}
}
w
}
set.seed(67122)
normalita1<-Normalita(5,1,100)
normalita1
shapiro.test(normalita1)
hist(normalita1,main="Normal Simulada (5,1)",sub="n=100")
##################
## Anexo 2 ##
##################
normalita2<-rnorm(length(normalita1),mean(normalita1),1/length(normalita1))
shapiro.test(normalita2)
hist(normalita2,main="Normal(Media (X), 1/n)",sub="n=100")
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5.057430
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5.038488
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5.046095
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5.036290
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5.027384
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5.057841
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5.055198
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5.042344
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5.046608
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5.045083
5.053879

[97] 5.055170 5.045683 5.047013 5.050214

##################
## Anexo 3 ##
##################
normalita3<-Normalita(mean(normalita1),1/length(normalita1),1000)
shapiro.test(normalita3)
hist(normalita3, main="Normal simulada(Media (X),1/n)",sub="n=1000")
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5.036114
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5.200573
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4.815790
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4.935803
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5.263995
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5.066589
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5.050321
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5.024027
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5.197673
5.015794
5.072104
5.193169
5.037140
4.980879
5.172483
5.063785
5.055285
5.018515
4.900634
4.938436
4.863453
4.953689
4.939742
5.222568
4.791346
5.023012
4.971766
5.065990
4.970491
4.906425
5.066884
5.153876
4.945406
4.984448
5.018642
4.991876
5.127137
5.055380
5.025522
5.128757
4.994627
5.152845
5.117227
4.913391
5.125202
5.019180

4.945698
5.095649
5.105128
5.149253
5.070650
5.063818
5.210513
5.239923
5.166312
5.017755
4.905116
4.817576
4.897511
4.999683
5.047122
4.819717
4.902191
5.232993
4.871579
5.087234
5.040221
4.809366
5.156898
4.892906
5.022756
5.017807
5.041049
5.050618
5.038503
4.996403
5.182309
4.996067
5.170380
5.044416
4.907672
5.074307
5.022721
5.107940
5.066942

5.009766
5.073992
5.102670
4.978554
5.031522
4.930770
5.114799
4.839420
5.174288
5.060851
5.130267
4.939150
4.867570
5.300793
4.946400
4.852187
4.882201
4.896616
4.988226
5.011964
5.168437
4.993962
5.081006
4.892468
5.129089
5.012348
5.045859
4.948491
5.002902
5.004914
5.100424
5.092034
5.098933
5.162582
5.044450
5.001858
5.098822
5.191253
5.037080

5.023994
4.947440
5.021441
5.118807
5.007881
5.202286
5.057123
5.028097
5.056652
5.236497
5.092547
5.218571
4.989402
5.049572
5.215404
5.140481
5.060555
5.125832
4.975822
5.124251
4.990702
4.990663
5.183993
5.153311
4.908680
4.960469
5.002348
4.995796
5.021980
5.190976
4.999714
4.879362
4.958414
5.216376
5.111134
5.144802
5.053542
5.131127
5.098065

5.134145
5.093753
4.967412
4.972449
5.059160
4.963080
4.897362
5.054392
5.237103
4.911796
5.032162
5.112291
5.096957
4.949747
5.154964
4.921852
4.962942
4.995525
5.231412
4.860844
4.975381
4.939707
5.186434
5.115152
5.025805
5.052672
5.163867
5.433927
5.158016
4.977085
5.035618
4.938901
4.991067
4.989827
4.889387
4.932430
4.976269
5.152289
5.126583

5.094511
5.106689
5.215681
5.131804
4.900486
5.025024
5.064681
4.980883
5.107898
4.953398
4.935244
5.032350
5.204123
5.103736
5.077021
5.137349
5.059377
5.008533
5.112859
5.272057
4.870051
5.016744
5.035387
4.841449
5.055225
4.895374
4.911443
5.099217
5.049268
5.024602
5.029662
5.050502
4.883703
4.917955
5.088143
4.915988
5.040859
5.016099
5.064756

4.920626
5.176463
4.916765
4.996681
5.134286
4.901067
5.050142
4.900618
5.121923
5.098583
5.092560
5.160780
5.158901
4.943596
4.969129
5.074260
5.181210
5.029161
4.873941
5.192354
5.073156
5.203790
5.056083
5.020621
5.148702
4.945042
4.985025
5.195621
4.950817
4.927609
5.111768
5.098336
5.230346
5.264818
5.033633
4.856935
5.105190
4.966038
5.058919

##################
## Anexo 4 ##
##################
lognormita<-rlnorm(1000,mean(normalita1),1/length(normalita1))
lognormita
hist(lognormita,main="Log-Normal(Media (X), 1/100)", sub="n=1000",freq=F)
curve(dlnorm(x, mean(normalita1), 1/100), col = "gray", lty = 2, lwd = 2, add=T)
8

[1]
[9]
[17]
[25]
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[105]
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[145]
[153]
[161]
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[321]
[329]
[337]
[345]
[353]
[361]
[369]

153.0071
154.5953
155.5798
154.9809
156.6227
153.9614
156.8692
154.9076
155.1347
153.5447
155.8094
155.3292
157.4898
156.7674
154.8189
154.4596
154.3986
154.9218
155.5708
155.8016
155.5396
156.1684
157.0341
158.6795
156.7517
156.1673
155.6038
154.5929
156.1537
155.5281
155.6532
156.1733
152.8459
153.2266
153.5581
154.7261
153.5791
153.6764
155.6635
156.5104
154.2084
156.0865
152.3085
154.3641
156.0948
157.9407
154.1354

158.0572
156.3410
153.6105
155.7463
152.2860
154.9612
154.9596
155.3816
153.8144
153.2665
153.5888
152.8417
157.9301
155.2545
154.9693
154.0813
155.6983
154.6327
155.1356
155.6449
156.1005
155.6510
156.6078
153.1247
157.3279
156.5860
155.2174
155.2236
155.1033
155.3609
153.6315
155.3478
154.4153
156.7447
153.5694
153.2391
154.3019
155.7338
157.6213
151.5959
154.2307
153.4309
155.2764
157.0455
154.9924
153.1698
152.4280

158.0204
156.2312
154.4971
156.7633
154.6186
153.2867
154.6939
153.8551
155.6922
157.4884
156.2454
154.5772
153.2098
157.4736
152.7840
156.2180
155.5956
153.9816
154.6612
154.9048
155.3243
158.6325
155.0012
154.1635
157.8346
156.4736
153.6618
155.1512
154.8556
156.2084
154.0501
156.4775
154.6494
155.7934
155.7107
155.7286
158.2877
157.4319
155.8800
154.1051
156.5873
153.0140
157.4935
156.8629
153.8679
152.9787
155.4858

156.3652
159.0116
157.5580
156.1618
155.2912
153.4536
156.9679
155.0764
155.0778
155.2938
155.3523
152.6458
152.8053
154.3583
156.9532
157.6905
154.9867
155.3230
155.1030
156.8329
154.2048
156.8929
156.1767
153.5826
157.2785
156.3420
154.9865
157.3832
154.5814
158.9829
155.9864
153.9127
156.0982
156.0379
152.8005
156.1590
155.4196
154.0094
154.1061
155.1102
153.8856
154.9819
153.2555
153.7219
155.5321
157.2123
156.1396

153.6914
158.6867
155.5455
154.0043
157.0169
154.9585
154.4507
154.5183
157.2818
153.1357
153.0150
153.6127
154.5415
155.2849
154.4015
155.5127
156.0973
154.4535
155.5008
155.5252
155.5014
154.8074
156.6729
155.6344
155.7498
154.0854
154.3961
154.7687
153.0814
155.9525
154.2491
155.1613
154.8533
155.9945
156.7256
152.4237
152.2467
154.5937
155.4649
157.8883
155.0360
155.5605
155.1067
154.8577
156.9790
154.7165
153.8975
9

156.8838
152.2128
156.5266
156.5370
154.1560
155.9255
157.4331
156.3857
155.0856
156.6726
156.5636
155.5662
156.0326
154.3771
157.3705
157.3962
157.0272
154.2231
152.0611
152.1506
154.4143
153.7995
156.4913
155.5790
152.5101
156.6427
154.8384
156.0182
158.1502
157.7137
153.4004
153.4460
154.1510
154.1122
156.2950
153.4990
154.1381
156.7397
154.7355
155.2505
157.1228
154.4982
157.3422
154.5658
156.7510
154.4009
157.9630

152.4078
153.0130
155.1119
157.4960
153.2927
158.2719
156.1700
155.2746
153.3718
156.1429
154.6120
154.4365
157.1052
156.9331
155.8327
154.2540
155.2359
154.3928
152.1029
155.4477
155.3501
157.3444
153.8915
155.4881
155.3941
155.6305
154.4118
156.3765
152.4812
156.3617
154.3066
158.0588
156.2898
154.7224
152.4294
156.1768
157.0161
156.6734
154.3027
157.6416
153.3283
157.8413
158.6018
156.3109
154.3821
160.0932
154.2731

154.0039
154.8733
151.0655
155.6773
158.8175
155.0583
153.9937
155.1476
153.0731
156.9389
152.9200
158.6073
155.4316
154.2362
155.0366
157.7006
155.1414
155.1058
154.9702
157.4706
155.6378
154.8444
152.4736
155.9048
155.9185
154.0639
156.6448
157.1183
155.3175
156.4869
154.9485
152.7867
155.0761
155.4128
153.8429
153.2286
157.3610
155.7540
156.7890
154.2651
157.1752
155.4378
156.8079
155.3577
155.5273
152.0830
156.9672

[377]
[385]
[393]
[401]
[409]
[417]
[425]
[433]
[441]
[449]
[457]
[465]
[473]
[481]
[489]
[497]
[505]
[513]
[521]
[529]
[537]
[545]
[553]
[561]
[569]
[577]
[585]
[593]
[601]
[609]
[617]
[625]
[633]
[641]
[649]
[657]
[665]
[673]
[681]
[689]
[697]
[705]
[713]
[721]
[729]
[737]
[745]
[753]

155.2639
154.1296
156.5324
155.2509
156.1924
154.5549
155.6821
157.2907
154.0702
155.2418
155.2695
155.7646
155.4839
153.7067
152.9954
156.0803
151.9604
156.4183
154.0010
154.8995
156.2012
155.7619
154.6659
155.4424
156.1962
153.8637
156.1848
155.9831
155.4652
152.9755
155.4493
154.4107
156.2590
155.4797
156.3812
155.0239
154.8271
157.3053
155.8669
157.3474
157.7958
154.8634
156.8535
155.9281
158.6853
156.1210
155.4141
155.4059

155.9071
154.5977
152.7451
155.2765
154.2531
155.3399
156.6339
155.5843
156.9222
154.1425
156.3857
156.7184
154.5758
155.9630
153.5980
158.0570
155.8240
156.1444
151.2666
155.7864
156.7951
154.8801
153.1271
152.7146
155.6925
156.8286
158.3340
156.4619
154.7840
156.7122
155.5119
157.3383
156.0325
156.3235
156.0955
156.9336
157.0294
153.0116
153.7209
156.0015
154.0781
154.6384
154.9578
154.2359
156.7540
155.0922
157.1188
155.6199

154.7485
156.7784
156.6169
153.3663
153.0763
153.6358
156.8190
159.3369
158.1338
154.9170
154.9602
156.4330
154.7135
156.5024
154.9630
156.9686
158.4918
156.4937
156.4903
156.9855
154.8945
156.4603
153.8311
155.9706
151.2407
152.8699
153.5095
155.8439
156.0999
156.4618
154.2603
152.5684
153.1485
154.6750
155.5749
157.3273
155.0756
155.6949
153.1337
155.8471
154.8845
153.0043
157.1578
154.2556
156.2645
153.9781
157.8356
152.7081

156.9438
156.8503
156.1967
156.4729
155.7246
154.6366
153.8005
154.0268
155.3003
155.4657
156.1722
151.9101
155.7462
154.8982
152.7172
156.9678
154.0981
152.2838
156.4406
156.5931
156.3430
156.7515
153.2852
156.5141
154.0959
155.5272
154.9457
154.2209
152.6564
155.4113
154.7831
155.1690
155.8541
157.8086
153.2132
155.9902
154.8666
156.3739
153.5305
155.2159
154.1495
153.7578
155.3625
154.2041
154.0028
157.0522
153.1818
153.6021

154.8627
153.9794
154.6597
155.3839
157.4835
155.2443
154.3101
154.6580
154.5898
153.9775
154.4170
152.8974
158.2812
154.2121
156.5307
154.4622
155.9401
157.5960
154.5360
153.9403
154.6277
156.4656
153.7688
155.2007
155.9576
156.4076
155.0445
152.0893
156.5913
157.2014
154.3512
156.5614
157.9982
155.7811
156.7478
153.1230
154.7081
155.6905
155.2487
152.9839
156.7823
156.5769
153.4922
154.4269
152.8175
152.8716
158.4073
157.9728
10

157.8353
153.9682
155.5048
155.5350
157.0290
154.3068
153.4337
157.0164
153.4761
157.9485
154.5414
153.2579
152.7496
154.9379
156.6172
155.0972
154.7530
154.6978
154.2676
154.9747
154.6803
155.8533
153.7560
154.6794
155.6136
155.4873
154.5771
157.7051
156.0091
153.6383
154.4500
156.3160
156.5662
153.1781
156.0876
155.0798
153.2015
156.7417
157.5973
155.3303
158.3352
154.5474
156.5491
152.4535
155.5382
156.9052
154.5676
157.4107

154.3714
155.1946
155.4495
156.9971
155.0663
155.6523
155.5344
155.5134
155.3568
158.4233
157.7300
154.7619
152.7219
155.3977
154.3585
154.2865
153.8350
157.5565
154.7251
153.7270
155.8661
155.5457
155.0726
157.4214
156.0069
155.9146
151.8044
154.9306
157.1855
154.9223
154.0909
156.3015
157.0041
154.1583
156.3481
154.4628
152.1836
154.7291
155.6915
154.2357
156.6307
154.3742
155.2888
153.6621
155.1925
155.0007
154.5594
158.9808

155.6102
152.1116
155.9296
154.9669
157.2957
153.6296
154.7840
155.4521
155.6449
154.6158
155.0396
156.8084
154.5269
154.2774
153.8938
156.7223
155.0700
156.6028
154.0300
153.3616
154.4633
153.9602
157.4108
156.6404
158.1311
158.7485
154.7582
156.4103
155.7250
155.8802
155.7177
155.4918
151.6752
156.9655
156.5518
154.3493
154.5708
155.5935
156.6129
156.4434
156.2427
154.7233
155.6839
154.6276
153.4315
154.2059
155.7030
155.7976

[761]
[769]
[777]
[785]
[793]
[801]
[809]
[817]
[825]
[833]
[841]
[849]
[857]
[865]
[873]
[881]
[889]
[897]
[905]
[913]
[921]
[929]
[937]
[945]
[953]
[961]
[969]
[977]
[985]
[993]

153.7185
155.8308
153.7311
157.4242
156.0126
156.6215
155.3802
154.5153
156.1718
154.3807
155.2076
154.1343
154.7396
154.8136
153.5274
156.3363
153.8538
154.6331
156.9244
155.6646
153.9930
155.0478
152.7759
157.0415
155.8100
155.9470
156.8996
155.7310
155.2027
156.1188

155.6383
154.4858
154.9909
154.3622
155.1781
153.3248
155.4248
153.4734
154.1605
154.5714
155.6827
158.4348
155.6175
154.3566
155.3879
154.8374
154.0759
153.1460
154.0515
157.1539
156.6063
155.4083
157.3350
154.4438
153.4174
154.0502
153.9852
155.7213
156.4250
151.3182

155.7531
152.7800
153.9290
154.6393
153.7538
156.1893
156.5501
159.6492
156.4781
154.4083
154.4994
157.4694
157.3683
153.9057
152.4818
154.5924
159.3130
154.7452
153.9826
153.6050
154.8390
156.5600
159.0036
152.8783
155.9656
154.3554
155.3070
155.5889
154.6242
153.9703

152.5451
158.4938
151.1103
155.2885
156.5225
156.0216
155.3494
154.3851
154.2286
153.7956
154.5894
156.1104
153.6479
157.9376
154.4871
156.9224
154.1673
154.2102
155.9096
156.8895
155.7683
151.4558
156.4229
155.0166
154.7951
154.9647
154.9591
154.2217
155.9720
155.2062

156.5520
154.1952
153.5496
154.1123
153.9070
156.3624
156.7653
154.6573
155.2579
158.2660
154.0074
152.5411
153.9759
156.4474
157.7603
151.4875
153.7602
155.8816
153.6825
158.9786
153.6052
155.5180
157.6540
153.8143
157.6252
156.1705
158.0135
153.0972
153.6272
151.2502

11

157.9359
154.5022
156.2071
156.9561
156.6157
151.7713
157.0009
154.5205
152.8458
155.5980
154.0454
153.5610
153.7866
155.0701
155.5945
153.5898
155.1491
157.9204
152.8269
157.4243
159.3021
155.3345
153.2602
154.0323
154.0367
155.3073
151.3933
156.6573
153.8394
155.4824

155.8447
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154.2013
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153.8897
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