Market Outlook 280512

Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Dealers Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias tracing positive
opening trades in most of the Asian bourses.
US markets closed modestly lower on Friday, after the stocks turned in another
lackluster performance. Traders largely shrugged off the release of a report from
Reuters and the University of Michigan showing that U.S. consumer sentiment in
the month of May improved by more than previously estimated. European markets
ended Friday in positive territory. Concerns still persist over a possible exit of
Greece from the Eurozone and the country is likely to remain in focus until it holds
second round of elections scheduled on June 17th. Spain also came in the
spotlight on the news that shares of Bankia had been halted ahead of the release
of the details of its rescue plan.
Indian benchmark indices ended largely unchanged on Friday, with a firm trend
across Europe limiting the downside. With pressure mounting on the government to
consider a partial rollback of a petrol price hike, investors awaited to see if the
government musters the courage to increase diesel and LPG prices for improving
fiscal health and to combat the deteriorating economic situation.
Markets Today
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.0)
(4.5) 16,218
Nifty
(0.0)
(1.0)
4,920
0.4
25.7
5,901
MID CAP
0.5
33.5
6,318
BSE HC
(0.1)
(8.6)
6,640
BSE PSU
0.5
35.3
6,729
BANKEX
0.3
33.6 10,899
SMALL CAP
AUTO
METAL
(0.1)
0.9
(4.3)
9,239
92.3 10,089
OIL & GAS
(0.1)
(5.1)
7,578
BSE IT
(0.1)
(2.9)
5,523
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
(0.6)
NASDAQ
(74.9) 12,455
(0.1)
(1.9)
2,838
FTSE
0.0
1.5
5,352
Nikkei
0.2
17.0
8,580
0.3
47.0 18,713
Hang Seng
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,203 / 4,915 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,288 16,358 / 4,941 4,962 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,203 / 4,915 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,133 16,048 / 4,895 4,869 levels.
Straits Times
(0.2)
(6.8)
2,773
Shanghai Com
(0.7)
(17.4)
2,334
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
(1.7)
(0.7)
$42.5
Indices
R2
WIT
0.6
0.1
$8.7
(0.2)
(0.1)
$29.3
(0.6)
(0.2)
$28.6
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
Indian ADRs
INFY
SENSEX
16,048
16,133
16,203
16,288
16,358
IBN
NIFTY
4,869
4,895
4,915
4,941
4,962
HDB
News Analysis
INR depreciation to boost export growth

4QFY2012 Result Reviews ITC, Sun TV, MOIL, Jagran, Crompton Greaves,
TVS Srichakra, Cravatex
4QFY2012 Result Previews Coal India, NMDC, Motherson Sumi, Britannia,
Sadbhav Engineering, Indoco Remedies
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,453
823
Declines
1,304
589
106
82
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (May 23, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
BSE
1,794
FII
1,533
1,853
(320)
(927)
42,534
NSE
8,121
276
293
(17)
21
(6,080)
MFs
FII Derivatives (May 25, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,256
1,654
(398)
12,712
Stock Futures
2,918
2,709
209
22,922
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Voltas
Adani Enter
Jubl Food
Cummins India
NHPC
www.angelbroking.com
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
101
12.0
M & M Fin
615
(3.1)
259
7.0
Jindal Steel
1,241
5.9
Maruti Suzuki
456
(2.6)
1,117
(2.5)
427
4.0
Crompton Greav
106
(2.3)
19
3.9
Gujarat Fluo
419
(2.3)
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
INR depreciation to boost export growth

India's widening current account deficit has been a macro overhang of late
because of high domestic inflation as well as high crude prices, but this was being
masked by capital flows earlier. However, with this kind of high current account
deficit, we had maintained the view that the INR was likely to depreciate, and this
finally got accentuated once capital flows diminished recently.
INR has depreciated by 13.8% in the last three months and 26.6% from its recent
highs of 44.1 in July 2011. If we take depreciation of all major currencies against
USD into account in the past three months and one year, the depreciation of INR
has been the highest (except Brazilian Zeal). The performance of other currencies
as against INR also corroborates the same fact. This, in our view, should provide
the requisite boost to India's exports specifically to gradually self-correct the deficit.
In the long run, an increase in exports will lead to improvement in trade account
and thereby result in higher GDP.
The clear beneficiaries of INR depreciation are IT companies, pharma companies
and export-oriented auto ancillary companies. In fact, as compared to the sharp
depreciation of INR, the Chinese Yuan has actually appreciated marginally over
the last one year against USD, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of Indian
products. The recent better competitive positioning of India due to the currency
depreciation is likely to aid future exports growth and we expect it to remain at
decent levels going ahead.
Exhibit 1: Depreciation / (appreciation) of various currencies against USD

(%)
Till date in May
1 month
3 months
1 year
3 years
Indian Rupee
5.8
5.9
13.8
23.4
18.4
Brazilian Zeal
7.7
8.7
19.8
25.3
0.6
Russian Ruble
8.2
8.3
9.0
12.1
2.4
Chinese Yuan
0.9
0.5
0.6
(2.5)
(7.1)
South African Rand
7.6
7.2
10.3
19.8
1.2
Malaysia Ringgrit
3.8
2.5
4.3
3.0
(9.5)
Japanese Yen
(0.4)
(2.1)
(1.7)
(3.1)
(15.8)
Indonesia Rupiah
3.2
3.2
3.6
10.7
(6.9)
Singapore Dollar
3.3
2.5
1.8
2.4
(11.3)
Australian Dollar
7.1
5.7
10.0
8.4
(19.4)
Korean Won
4.3
3.5
4.7
7.7
(5.5)
Hongkong Dollar
0.1
0.1
0.1
(0.2)
0.1
Thailand Baht
2.7
2.0
4.1
3.8
(8.1)
Swiss Franc
5.5
5.2
7.1
9.0
(11.6)
Canadian Dollar
4.1
4.0
3.0
5.1
(8.4)
Turkish Lira
5.2
3.8
4.8
15.7
19.5
Euro
5.4
5.2
7.3
12.3
11.7
GBP
3.6
3.0
1.3
3.3
1.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Exhibit 2: Depreciation / (appreciation) of various currencies against INR

(%)
Till date in May
1 month
Brazilian Zeal
1.8
2.6
Russian Ruble
2.1
2.3
Chinese Yuan
1 year
3 years
5.2
1.8
(15.0)
(5.0)
(9.2)
(13.5)
(4.7)
(5.1)
1.6
1.2
(11.6)
(20.9)
(21.6)
(3.2)
(2.9)
(14.5)
Malaysia Ringgrit
(1.7)
(3.1)
(8.3)
(16.4)
(23.5)
Japanese Yen
Indonesia Rupiah
(5.9)
(7.5)
(13.6)
(21.5)
(28.9)
(2.6)
(2.6)
(9.1)
(10.4)
(21.5)
Singapore Dollar
(2.4)
(3.2)
(10.6)
(17.0)
(25.2)
Australian Dollar
1.1
(3.7)
(12.0)
(32.1)
Korean Won
(1.5)
(2.3)
(8.0)
(12.7)
(20.0)
Hongkong Dollar
(5.4)
(5.4)
(12.0)
(19.2)
(15.8)
Thailand Baht
(2.9)
(3.6)
(8.6)
(15.9)
(22.4)
South African Rand
Swiss Franc
3 months
(0.6)
(5.5)
(11.3)
(25.2)
Canadian Dollar
(1.6)
(2.1)
(9.8)
(14.8)
(22.7)
Turkish Lira
(0.6)
(1.8)
(7.8)
(6.2)
0.9
Euro
(0.3)
(0.6)
(5.7)
(8.9)
(5.5)
GBP
(2.6)
(3.4)
(11.6)
(16.8)
(14.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Result Reviews
ITC (CMP : `232, TP : `252, Upside : 8.6%)
For 4QFY2012, ITC posted impressive17.2% yoy growth in its net sales to
`6,861cr. While growth in the cigarette business stood at 17.4% yoy, other FMCG
business posted strong 23.6% growth. The agri business also posted strong 30.8%
yoy growth. However, the hotels business reported a benign performance due to
the economic slowdown in the domestic and global economy. The companys
operating margin stood at 31.6%, up 96bp yoy due to higher realization on
cigarettes. However, the company faced margin pressures due to increased
packing-related and other input costs. Net profit rose by 26% yoy to `1,614cr.
We maintain an Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `252.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
28,955
35.9
7,143
9.2
34.8
25.3
8.1
16.4
5.9
FY2014E
33,595
35.7
8,187
10.5
33.1
22.1
6.7
14.3
5.1
Sun TV (CMP : `250, TP : - , Upside : - )

For 4QFY2012, Sun TVs consolidated net revenue dropped by 7.3% yoy to
`427cr. The decline in revenue was mainly on account of a 3% yoy drop in
advertisement revenue and loss of cable revenue from Tamil Nadu. The
companys EBITDA margin declined by ~216bp yoy to 76.9% on the back of
higher other expenditure (37.6%) on a yoy basis. Depreciation expense for the
company increased sharply by 57.5% to `107cr due to higher capex on movie
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
acquisition rights, upgradation of equipment and launch of HD channels.

Consequently, the companys net profit declined by 23.7% on a yoy basis to
`159cr. Currently, the stock is trading at FY2014E price to earnings multiple of
13x. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
2,135
75.2
822
20.9
26.0
15.0
3.6
6.9
5.2
FY2014E
2,458
74.4
946
24.0
25.1
13.0
3.0
5.8
4.3
MOIL (CMP: `269, TP: Under Review)

MOIL reported its FY2012 results. The company's net sales for FY2012 declined by
21.1% to `900cr, below our estimate of `972cr. EBITDA for FY2012 declined by
43.5% to `4,332cr and EBITDA margin dipped by 1,910bp yoy to 48.2% on
account of slump in manganese ore prices. Other income for FY2012 increased
by 40% to `203cr. Consequently, net profit decreased by 30.1% yoy to `411cr, inline with our expectation of `408cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
(%)
(` cr)
EPS
ROE
P/E
March
(` cr)
FY2013E
1,007
56.6
494
FY2014E
1,091
56.9
536
31.9
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
29.4
19.0
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
8.8
1.6
3.8
2.1
18.2
8.1
1.4
3.0
1.7
Jagran (CMP: `86, TP: Under review)

For 4QFY2012, Jagran Prakashans consolidated net revenues grew by moderate
10.1% yoy to `303cr. Top-line growth was mainly on account of ~11.5% yoy
growth in advertisement revenues to `210.3cr and healthy ~12.4% yoy growth in
circulation revenues to `62.8cr. The companys EBITDA margin declined by
~395bp yoy to 19.4%, on back of higher newsprint costs on a yoy basis.
Consequently, Net profit for the company remained flat on a yoy basis to `43cr.
Currently, the stock is trading at FY2014E price to earnings multiple of 12.6x. We
maintain our Buy view on the stock with target price under review.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
1,499
27.4
241
7.6
34.6
12.6
4.2
7.8
2.1
FY2014E
1,642
28.8
287
9.1
37.7
10.6
3.8
6.7
1.9
Crompton Greaves (CMP: `106 / TP: `164 / Upside: 55%)

Crompton Greaves announced a weak set of 4QFY2012 results. The company
reported a 5.8% increase in its top line to `3,077cr, slightly lower than our
expectation of `3,170cr. The quarter witnessed EBITDA margin contraction of
590bp yoy to 6.9%, in-line with the previous three quarters and lower than our
expectation of 8.0%. PAT for the quarter declined by 60.1% yoy to `100cr
(`251cr), against our expectation of `150cr. At the CMP of `106, the stock is
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
trading at 9.7x and 9.0x on our FY2013E and FY2014E earnings estimates,
respectively. Currently, we maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of
`164. We will revise our estimates and release a detailed results review shortly.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
12,936
7.3
699
10.9
18.5
9.7
1.7
5.9
0.6
FY2014E
14,101
7.7
753
11.7
17.3
9.0
1.5
4.9
0.5
TVS Srichakra (CMP `340, TP - `460, Upside: 36%)

For 4QFY2012, TVS Srichkara posted a decent set of numbers. The company
reported 15% yoy growth in its top line; however, it was flat on a qoq basis and
came in at `348cr against our estimate of `376cr. The company was able to
sustain its operating margin for the quarter at 7.4%, which was a marginal
expansion of 34bp on a qoq basis; however, it contracted by 103bp yoy. Other
income for the quarter increased by 180% on a qoq basis to `5.4cr. The company
reported profit of `10cr, 48.2% qoq growth, in-line with our estimate for
4QFY2012. For FY2012, the company reported a 28.6% increase in its revenue to
`1,396cr (`1,085cr). Operating margin was flat on a yoy basis to 8.3%, in-line
with our estimate. Profit for the year was also flat at `40cr (`39cr), in-line with our
estimate. The stock is currently trading at PE of 3.7x for FY2014E. The company
has recommended dividend @ 135%, i.e., `13.50 per share for FY2012. Backed
by stabilizing rubber prices, depreciating INR and the companys rigorous
advertisements, our outlook for the company remains positive. We maintain our
Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `460.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
1,612
9.6
57
73.8
34.3
4.6
1.4
4.2
0.4
FY2014E
1,827
9.8
71
92.1
32.4
3.7
1.0
3.6
0.4
Cravatex (CMP `658, TP: `771, Upside: 17%)

For 4QFY2012, Cravatex top line grew by 164% yoy and came in at `60cr, 21%
higher than our estimate of `50cr. Annual top line grew by healthy 160% to
`241cr mainly on account of healthy growth of 130% in domestic sales and
additional sales under the sub license acquired from FILA. The companys EBITDA
came in at `3.2cr. The companys margin improved marginally by 9bp on a
sequential basis and came in at 5.25%. EBITDA for the year was higher by 105%
at `14.1cr, but margin dipped by 160bp. The dip is assumed to be due to rupee
depreciation, as raw-material cost as a percentage of sales rose by ~1,400bp.
Profit for the quarter stood at `1.21cr, slightly lower than our estimate of `1.3cr,
as compared to `2.9cr in 3QFY2012. Net profit for the year grew by 53% to
`9.7cr, but margin dipped by 290bp. We maintain our Buy recommendation on
the stock with a target price of `771, based on a target P/E of 12x for FY2014E.
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
301
3.8
35
13.9
18.7
4.4
17.3
0.7
FY2014E
362
5.6
17
64
22.2
10.2
3.1
9.6
0.5
Result Previews
Coal India
Coal India is slated to report its 4QFY2012 results. We expect net sales to increase
by 17.1% yoy to `17,672cr mainly on account of coal price hike taken during
February 2011. However, EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 1,623bp yoy
to 26.8% in 4QFY2012 on account of higher employee cost provision.
Nevertheless, net profit is expected to decrease by only 5.9% yoy to `3,958cr as
the decrease in operating profit is expected to be partially offset by increased
interest income. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
NMDC
NMDC is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the companys top
line to decrease by 33.1% yoy to `2,524cr on account of lower sales volumes as
well as realizations. On the operating front, EBITDA is expected to decrease by
29.2% yoy to `1,939cr. The bottom line is expected to decrease by 27.2% yoy to
`1,528cr. We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `185.
Motherson Sumi Systems

Motherson Sumi Systems is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2012 results. On a
consolidated basis, we expect the company to report ~145% yoy growth in its
revenue to `5,686cr mainly on account of consolidation of Peguform operations.
On the operating front, the company is expected to report a ~350bp yoy
contraction in its margin to 7.5%. As a result, net profit is expected to increase by
~14% yoy to `158cr. The stock rating is under review.
Britannia Industries
Britannia Industries (Britannia) is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 numbers. For
the quarter, we expect Britannia to post decent 15.3% yoy growth in its top line to
`1,299cr aided by price hikes. OPM is expected to increase by 65bp yoy to 7.1%.
The bottom line is expected to grow by 23.5% yoy to `53cr, aided by good
operational performance. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with
a target price of `650.
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Sadbhav Engineering
We expect Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) to post a weak numbers on account of high
base in 4QFY2011. Revenue is expected to decline by 18.2% to `856.2cr.
However, on a sequential basis, it implies growth of 18.3%. EBITDA margin is
expected to witness a jump of 130bp yoy to 10.0% on account of low EBITDAM
posted in 4QFY2011 due to higher sub-contracting charges. On the earnings
front, the company is expected to post a decline of 1.9% yoy to `52.9cr.
We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `199.
Indoco Remedies
For the 4QFY2012, Indoco Remedies is expected to report top-line growth of
28.7% yoy to `155cr. The company's OPM is expected to expand by 120bp yoy to
14.1%, driven by growth in domestic formulation sales. As a result, net profit is
expected to increase by 31.6% yoy to `16.0cr on the back of improvement in
OPM. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `81.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Bharat Forge Ltd - (28/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
1,101
796
38
921
20
EBITDA
251
199
26
239
EBITDA margin (%)
22.8
25.0
Net profit
114
100
14
103
11
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
126,610
86,880
46
98,272
29
11,928
5,783
106
11,158
9.4
6.7
8,456
3,905
117
2,488
240
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
2,756
3,770
(27)
2,822
(2)
EBITDA
2,016
2,739
(26)
2,261
(11)
73.1
72.7
1,784
2,099
Net sales
26.0
Indian Oil Corp Ltd - (28/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
11.4
NMDC Ltd - (28/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
EBITDA margin (%)

Net profit
80.1
(15)
1,859
(4)
GMR Infra Ltd - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
2,024
1,962
1,999
EBITDA
510
(373)
(237)
469
EBITDA margin (%)
25.2
-19.0
(79)
(936)
Net sales
Net profit
23.5
-)
(192)
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
HPCL Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
50,762
39,667
28
47,917
4,967
2,201
126
3,703
34
9.8
5.5
4,384
1,123
290
2,725
61
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
16,911
15,396
10
18,124
(7)
9,312
7,972
17
11,051
(16)
55.1
51.8
4,058
2,791
EBITDA margin (%)

Net profit
7.7
ONGC Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
61.0
45
6,741
(40)
Power Grid Corporation Ltd (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
4,058
2,791
45
6,741
(40)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
12,769
11,945
10,594
21
2,079
2,340
(11)
1,581
31
16.3
19.6
1,269
1,507
SAIL - (29/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
14.9
(16)
632
101
Sun Pharmaceutical - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
2,062
1,463
41
2,145
(4)
EBITDA
828
510
62
964
(14)
EBITDA margin (%)
40.2
34.9
Net profit
661
443
Net sales
44.9
49
565
17
Tata Motors - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
49,815
36,452
37
45,199
10
7,390
4,675
58
6,827
14.8
12.8
3,865
2,638
15.1
47
3,427
13
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
United Spirits Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
1,850
1,597
16
1,954
(5)
EBITDA
230
233
(1)
200
15
EBITDA margin (%)
12.4
14.6
59
77
(23)
47
26
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
696
582
20
670
EBITDA
155
144
149
EBITDA margin (%)
22.3
24.7
Net profit
125
114
10
116
Net sales
Net profit
10.2
Colgate - (30/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
22.2
DLF Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
2,338
2,683
(13)
2,034
15
EBITDA
52
823
23
1,013
666
EBITDA margin (%)
43.3
24.8
Net profit
275
313
(12)
247
11
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
10,504
8,894
18
11,260
(7)
1,389
1,288
1,795
(23)
EBITDA margin (%)
13.2
14.5
Net profit
832
783
1,091
(24)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
450
524
(14)
90
400
EBITDA
222
256
(13)
51
335
EBITDA margin (%)
49.3
48.9
Net profit
156
197
(21)
24
550
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
4,113
3,905
3,258
26
816
13
40.5
Gail Ltd - (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
15.9
HDIL - (30/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
56.7
Jaiprakash Associates - (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
918
851
EBITDA margin (%)
22.3
21.8
Net profit
228
302
25.0
(25)
205
11
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd - (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
8,163
6,682
22
8,327
(2)
EBITDA
932
862
1,021
(9)
EBITDA margin (%)
11.4
12.9
Net profit
614
607
Net sales
12.3
1
662
(7)
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Tata Chemical Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
3,369
2,623
28
3,794
(11)
EBITDA
549
486
13
556
(1)
EBITDA margin (%)
16.3
18.5
Net profit
204
198
Net sales
14.7
3
254
Economic and Political News
Share of direct tax to touch 12% of GDP: Pranab Mukherjee

Government mulling private sector corruption law
High spectrum prices disincentive to investment in India: GSMA
Corporate News
RIL buyback gains pace; purchases shares worth Rs 1,481 crore

Airtel to roll out 3G in Rwanda in the next quarter
Reliance Power synchronizes two units of 2,400 MW Samalkot project
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
(20)
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 31, 2012
NMDC, IOC, Motherson Sumi, Bharat Forge, Britannia, Bajaj Electrical, Sadbhav Engg., Amara Raja Batteries, Indoco
Remedies, Subros
ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, United Spirits, HPCL, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma,
Ipca labs, Nagarjuna Const., Prakash Industries, PVR
GAIL, M&M, DLF, Jaiprakash Asso., Colgate, Tata Chemicals, HDIL, Page Industries, BGR Energy , PTC India, Anant
Raj, GIPCL, Simplex Infra, SpiceJet, Greenply
-
June 01, 2012
Mphasis
May 28, 2012

May 29, 2012
May 30, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
May 29, 2012
US
May 30, 2012
Euro Zone
May 31, 2012
Event Description
Consumer Confidence
Unit
S.A./
1985=100
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Apr-12
69.20
69.50
Value
May-12
(19.30)
(19.30)
US
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
19-May-12
370.00
370.00
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Apr-12
19.00
(6.50)
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
Mar-12
2.20
1.90
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
6.10
6.00
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
May-12
45.00
45.00
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Apr-12
115.00
150.00
US
Unnemployment rate
Apr-12
8.10
8.10
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
53.30
52.00
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Mar-12
24.28
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar-12
(5.71)
--
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
50.50
49.70
June 05, 2012
Germany
PMI Services
June 06, 2012
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
June 07, 2012
UK
BOE Announces rates
June 09, 2012
China
June 01, 2012
Value
May-12
52.20
--
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
May-12
1.00
--
% Ratio
May-12
0.50
0.50
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
9.30
--
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.40
--
June 10, 2012
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Apr-12
4.90
--
June 12, 2012
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Mar-12
(3.50)
--
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
(2.60)
--
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
(0.20)
--
June 13, 2012
Market Strategy
May 28, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

(%)
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)
9.8
10.0
12.0
9.4
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.8
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.7
6.9
5.8
6.0
3.7
4.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
5.3
6.0
7.0
4.1
3.4
2.7
2.5
1.1
2.0
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Mar-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.4
6.9
7.2
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
48.0
Oct-11
0.0
Sep-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
Jun-11
52.0
May-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Feb-12
(5.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
Jan-12
(3.5)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3QFY09
(4.0)
May-11
(2.0)
5.0
Jun-11
Apr-11
6.0
9.5
10.0
8.5
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
4.00
May-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
May-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
127
2,472
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
18.2
15.9
3.8
3.3
22.8
22.3
1.7
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
115
183
5,287
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.7
6.3
1.1
1.0
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
297
345
2,539
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.1
9.1
2.4
1.9
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
88
100
4,418
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
7.3
6.6
1.3
1.1
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
24
33
6,426
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.0
8.1
2.0
1.7
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle
Accumulate
456
514
688
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.1
8.0
2.3
1.9
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,496
1,835
43,299
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
12.9
11.8
5.2
4.1
45.0
38.9
1.5
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
309
372
7,201
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
13.9
11.6
2.7
2.3
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,834
9,429
27,737
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.0
18.7
4.9
4.1
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
94
164
323
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.4
2.3
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
124
146
10,540
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
17.4
13.9
3.1
2.6
18.6
20.3
1.5
1.2
FAG Bearings
Neutral
1,595
2,650
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
13.5
12.0
2.9
2.4
24.0
21.9
1.5
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,842
2,280
36,782
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
13.1
12.4
6.2
4.8
54.8
43.3
1.1
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
76
113
310
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.0
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
638
793
39,181
34,740
39,263
10.7
11.0
44.9
51.7
14.2
12.4
2.5
2.2
18.9
19.1
0.8
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,117
1,510
32,273
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
12.9
11.1
1.8
1.6
15.3
15.5
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
166
216
6,413
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
14.6
11.5
3.2
2.6
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
30
183
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.3
6.1
0.7
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
269
312
71,785 191,183 210,301
12.8
12.8
39.4
43.6
6.8
6.2
2.4
1.9
40.4
34.3
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
34
55
1,613
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
6.8
6.1
1.2
1.0
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
725
498
15,355
8,760
10,023
6.4
6.4
18.2
20.7
39.8
34.9
5.4
4.8
14.4
14.6
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Reduce
294
274
2,119
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
10.8
9.7
1.8
1.6
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
208
51,008
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
8.9
8.7
1.8
1.5
21.3
18.9
1.0
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
160
221
1,443
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
12.9
10.2
2.6
2.2
21.2
23.8
0.5
0.4
Crompton Greaves
Buy
106
164
6,803
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
9.8
9.0
1.7
1.5
18.4
17.3
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
38
67
309
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.5
2.8
0.4
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
51
73
1,306
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
4.8
4.2
0.9
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,546
2,609
1,742
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.4
7.1
1.7
1.5
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.1
Thermax
Neutral
434
5,166
5,514
5,559
8.3
8.0
29.7
28.4
14.6
15.3
2.8
2.4
20.2
16.9
0.8
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,144
21,477
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
16.2
14.1
2.8
2.6
18.0
19.0
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
144
22,066
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.2
13.6
2.8
2.5
18.5
19.4
1.8
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
76
2,339
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
7.7
6.0
0.7
0.6
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
63
79
770
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
14.6
16.1
4.3
3.9
0.6
0.5
13.4
13.6
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
135
3,202
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
9.3
7.9
1.4
1.2
15.6
16.0
1.6
1.3
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,543
8,857
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
16.8
11.5
4.0
3.4
21.6
25.8
1.3
1.0
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,379
37,807
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
16.8
14.2
2.7
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.7
201
302
1,059
2,014
2,294
22.4
22.4
28.4
30.8
7.1
6.5
0.9
0.8
14.1
13.3
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
261
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.7
5.0
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
18
1,113
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.2)
(23.5)
1.1
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
114
166
3,776
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
7.6
6.7
1.1
1.0
16.1
15.8
2.6
2.4
ITNL
Buy
173
265
3,359
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
7.9
6.5
1.1
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
43
79
1,137
5,758
6,860
9.2
9.2
4.7
6.0
9.1
7.1
0.5
0.5
6.0
7.3
0.7
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
61
104
13,014
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
14.6
12.2
1.2
1.1
8.8
9.7
2.1
1.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,186
1,553
72,655
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
16.8
15.5
2.5
2.2
16.1
15.3
1.4
1.2
Madhucon Proj
Buy
42
70
308
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
9.0
8.9
0.5
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
31
76
798
5,790
7,022
9.2
9.5
3.5
5.4
8.9
5.8
0.3
0.3
3.7
5.6
0.8
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
85
594
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.1
5.9
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
46
1,519
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
15.8
10.1
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
124
199
1,861
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
12.2
11.0
1.9
1.7
17.6
16.3
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
216
316
1,066
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
7.9
6.1
0.8
0.7
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Buy
137
166
6,868
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.6
3.3
0.6
0.5
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
104
5,820
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
4.6
4.1
0.7
0.6
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,001
1,476
41,404
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.6
7.2
1.6
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
672
925
26,306
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.3
4.5
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
321
411
18,395
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.2
4.5
0.9
0.7
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
48
53
2,839
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.2
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
397
522
17,583
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
4.8
4.3
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
75
5,488
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.4
3.7
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
408
486
6,046
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Buy
86
111
3,000
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
3.7
3.3
0.6
0.5
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
413
7,058
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.3
7.2
1.1
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
657
97,067
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.7
17.3
4.1
3.7
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
500
567
117,491
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
17.7
14.1
3.4
2.9
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
816
1,174
93,773
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.0
10.1
1.4
1.3
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Accumulate
IOB
Buy
J & K Bank
87
117
11,122
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.4
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
173
197
7,424
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
4.2
4.0
0.7
0.6
18.2
16.9
81
96
6,416
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.0
3.7
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
Neutral
920
4,459
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.2
5.0
0.9
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
242
286
12,193
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
9.9
7.9
1.8
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
224
274
6,535
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.1
3.5
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
726
1,015
24,626
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.7
4.2
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
22
2,491
1,399
1,596
2.6
2.5
3.5
3.8
6.3
5.8
1.1
1.0
18.7
17.5
St Bk of India
Buy
2,005
2,486
134,544
68,925
80,565
3.7
3.7
236.6
282.7
8.5
7.1
1.4
1.2
18.6
19.3
Syndicate Bank
Buy
89
131
5,369
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.4
3.0
0.5
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
67
4,483
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.0
3.8
0.7
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
205
276
11,292
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.8
4.1
0.8
0.7
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
57
78
2,063
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.1
2.5
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
53
2,639
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.0
4.4
0.7
0.6
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
331
450
11,699
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.8
8.0
2.1
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,757
36,039
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
30.0
25.3
10.2
8.0
38.0
35.4
3.1
2.6
529
650
6,314
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
23.7
18.7
9.7
7.2
45.2
44.1
1.1
0.9
1,209
16,442
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
32.1
28.4
38.2
30.9
129.4
120.1
5.3
4.7
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
104
18,100
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
25.1
21.2
9.1
7.4
39.3
42.0
3.1
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,585
10,873
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
25.1
21.0
7.7
6.2
34.0
32.9
3.2
2.6
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
552
18,786
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
24.2
20.3
6.6
5.4
31.3
38.4
3.3
2.8
HUL
Neutral
421
90,989
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
29.8
25.7
22.3
17.4
82.7
76.2
3.4
2.9
ITC
Accumulate
232
252
181,192
28,955
33,595
35.9
35.7
9.2
10.5
25.3
22.1
8.1
6.7
34.8
33.1
6.0
5.1
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
177
11,430
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
26.7
21.8
7.2
5.6
30.0
28.8
2.5
2.1
Nestle*
Neutral
4,545
43,818
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.1
30.7
23.4
15.9
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
108
136
6,676
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
18.2
15.1
1.7
1.6
8.9
10.2
0.8
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
487
560
33,738
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
12.9
11.3
2.9
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.2
Hexaware
Neutral
125
3,711
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.8
11.7
3.0
2.6
23.7
22.5
1.8
1.5
Infosys
Buy
2,372
2,792
136,207
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.0
13.6
3.4
2.8
22.5
20.8
3.0
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
158
177
1,765
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.4
8.5
1.3
1.1
13.6
13.2
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
119
2,110
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
13.2
10.4
2.4
2.0
19.3
18.7
1.0
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
76
86
8,979
7,097
7,812
16.2
16.0
7.5
8.0
10.2
9.6
1.3
1.2
13.2
12.3
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
619
2,512
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.5
10.6
2.2
1.8
18.9
17.0
1.0
0.8
Mphasis
Buy
374
433
7,848
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.7
9.1
1.4
1.2
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
39
52
637
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
5.4
4.4
0.9
0.8
16.7
18.4
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Accumulate
TCS
Neutral
Tech Mahindra
Wipro
IT
340
361
1,359
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.1
8.5
1.4
1.2
15.4
14.5
0.9
0.7
1,222
239,084
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.3
17.2
5.9
4.8
30.5
27.7
3.9
3.3
Accumulate
665
725
8,476
5,880
6,314
15.6
15.2
75.9
82.2
8.8
8.1
1.8
1.5
20.1
18.1
1.4
1.2
Accumulate
394
430
96,780
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
15.7
13.7
2.9
2.5
18.6
18.3
2.0
1.6
D B Corp
Buy
200
269
3,663
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.8
12.4
3.3
2.8
24.1
24.4
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
111
148
2,612
2,255
2,555
16.3
16.7
9.0
10.6
12.4
10.5
1.5
1.4
13.4
13.8
0.8
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
86
137
2,726
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
11.3
9.5
3.8
3.4
34.6
37.7
1.8
1.6
PVR
Neutral
150
390
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.1
9.5
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
251
9,893
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
12.0
10.5
2.8
2.4
26.0
25.1
3.6
2.9
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
439
9,327
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.1
7.5
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.2
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
313
351
197,860
65,654
71,756
26.8
27.3
24.0
26.3
13.0
11.9
3.6
2.9
30.4
27.0
2.0
1.7
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
19
27
666
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
7.2
5.9
0.4
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
117
139
49,288
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
7.9
7.0
1.5
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.1
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
112
21,405
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
6.6
5.9
0.6
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Accumulate
607
663
13,544
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.1
6.8
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.7
MOIL
Reduce
269
255
4,524
979
1,061
45.7
46.8
24.5
26.6
11.0
10.1
1.7
1.5
16.1
15.8
2.5
2.1
Monnet Ispat
Buy
420
593
2,700
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
7.1
6.3
1.0
0.9
15.6
15.3
1.6
1.2
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
57
51
14,652
8,276
8,578
12.7
16.4
2.5
3.5
22.4
16.2
1.2
1.2
5.6
7.5
1.3
1.3
171
185
67,717
11,726
12,890
77.8
78.4
18.6
20.6
9.2
8.3
2.2
1.8
26.1
23.8
3.6
3.1
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
93
102
38,290
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
7.0
6.4
0.8
0.8
12.4
12.3
1.1
1.0
Accumulate
182
206
15,774
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.1
4.1
0.9
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
97
123
32,531
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.9
5.1
0.6
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
408
499
39,650 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
7.6
6.2
0.9
0.8
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
324
372
61,859
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.4
6.7
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.8
2.1
GAIL
Buy
336
392
42,659
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.5
9.1
1.7
1.5
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
257
319
219,962 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.3
7.7
1.5
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
692
872
226,599 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
10.5
9.9
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.6
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
50
91
944
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.6
5.5
1.8
1.4
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
117
175
3,400
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
8.5
8.0
1.0
0.4
11.4
10.9
1.0
0.9
Aventis*
Neutral
2,077
4,784
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
21.9
20.0
3.9
3.0
18.6
17.0
3.0
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
745
953
15,251
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.2
14.7
4.4
3.6
25.4
24.8
2.5
2.0
Cipla
Buy
309
379
24,822
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
18.7
16.4
2.9
2.6
16.7
16.8
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,693
28,688
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
20.2
18.2
4.2
3.5
22.4
21.0
2.8
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Buy
51
92
412
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
5.6
4.5
0.4
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
1,991
16,862
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.2
24.2
7.5
6.6
30.8
29.0
5.4
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
59
665
542
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
1.1
0.9
0.2
0.1
16.4
16.9
1.0
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
334
443
4,200
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.4
40.6
10.3
8.2
2.6
2.1
27.8
27.7
1.6
1.3
Lupin
Buy
533
646
23,806
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
17.9
16.5
4.7
3.7
27.0
25.2
2.7
2.2
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
123
178
865
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
7.4
5.5
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.1
0.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
530
22,385
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
14.9
17.8
5.6
4.5
43.1
28.1
1.9
1.8
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
571
634
58,813
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
21.4
19.8
4.3
3.7
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
269
342
3,363
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
6.0
5.6
0.6
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.1
GIPCL
Buy
62
98
932
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
5.9
6.1
0.6
0.6
10.5
9.6
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Accumulate
142
158
116,921
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
11.4
10.1
1.4
1.3
13.0
13.5
2.3
2.1
47
78
1,393
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.6
3.7
0.3
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.4
2.5
188
32,006
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.7
14.1
1.3
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
63
115
2,633
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
2.9
2.5
0.2
0.2
8.4
9.1
2.9
2.2
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
299
113,413
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
16.7
13.6
1.9
1.7
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
78
25,681
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
24.1
16.4
1.8
1.6
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
66
13,540
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
15.5
9.8
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.0
1.7
220
245
2,190
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
12.0
9.9
2.6
2.2
23.9
24.3
0.6
0.5
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Accumulate
CRISIL
Neutral
1,066
7,482
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.1
26.7
14.1
11.2
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.1
Finolex Cables
Buy
36
61
557
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
4.8
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
91
124
1,769
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.3
6.5
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
1.0
0.8
Greenply
Buy
210
298
507
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.2
4.2
1.1
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,077
3,432
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
30.9
25.2
17.9
14.3
64.2
63.1
3.7
3.0
Sintex
Buy
55
129
1,504
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.0
3.5
0.5
0.5
13.1
13.4
0.7
0.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
265
439
248
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.0
3.4
0.8
0.6
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Neutral
31
1,521
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(9.2)
13.2
(12.7)
26.8
0.5
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
59
108
367
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.4
6.4
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Goodyear
Accumulate
329
372
760
1,571
1,753
7.2
8.6
29.8
42.4
11.0
7.8
2.1
1.7
20.2
24.3
0.3
0.2
HEG
Buy
208
242
830
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
9.2
6.3
0.9
0.9
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.0
Hitachi
Buy
121
160
277
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
11.9
7.6
1.5
1.2
12.9
17.8
0.4
0.4
Honeywell Automation
Neutral
2,598
2,297
1,542
1,739
9.4
10.0
116.1
140.8
22.4
18.5
3.2
2.7
15.5
15.9
Ineos ABS
Neutral
750
1,319
900
1,011
10.2
11.5
35.6
45.7
21.1
16.4
3.1
2.6
15.4
17.2
ITD Cementation
Neutral
236
271
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
8.6
6.2
0.7
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
MRF
Buy
10,825
13,106
4,591
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
8.1
6.6
1.6
1.3
16.5
17.4
0.6
0.5
Relaxo
Accumulate
422
478
507
1,019
1,208
11.0
10.8
44.9
53.1
9.4
8.0
2.3
1.8
27.2
25.0
0.7
0.6
Tata Sponge
Buy
271
420
417
757
875
19.0
19.1
63.5
72.9
4.3
3.7
0.6
0.6
16.1
16.1
0.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
340
462
260
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.7
3.7
1.4
1.0
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.4
Vesuvius India
Neutral
383
777
621
711
15.3
15.5
27.3
32.4
14.0
11.8
2.3
1.9
17.2
17.6
1.1
0.9
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,475
1,628
3,134
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
24.3
16.3
5.0
4.0
22.0
27.3
1.7
1.4
Cera Sanitaryware Ltd
Accumulate
251
288
318
385
444
17.2
17.4
28.9
32.0
8.7
7.9
1.8
1.5
23.4
21.1
1.0
0.9
Jyothy Laboratories
Buy
213
248
1,718
1,359
1,627
10.3
12.9
13.9
20.6
15.3
10.3
5.0
3.7
35.8
41.3
1.7
1.3
Force Motors
Buy
461
680
600
2,346
2,753
6.7
7.0
50.9
61.9
9.1
7.4
0.5
0.5
5.5
6.3
0.2
0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 25, 2012
Market Outlook
May 28, 2012

Market Outlook 280512

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Market Outlook

May 28, 2012

OIL & GAS

INR depreciation to boost export growth

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 23, 2012)

FII Derivatives (May 25, 2012)

INR depreciation to boost export growth

Exhibit 1: Depreciation / (appreciation) of various currencies against USD

Till date in May

South African Rand

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: Depreciation / (appreciation) of various currencies against INR

Till date in May

South African Rand

Source: Company, Angel Research

Sun TV (CMP : `250, TP : - , Upside : - )

acquisition rights, upgradation of equipment and launch of HD channels.

MOIL (CMP: `269, TP: Under Review)

Jagran (CMP: `86, TP: Under review)

Crompton Greaves (CMP: `106 / TP: `164 / Upside: 55%)

TVS Srichakra (CMP `340, TP - `460, Upside: 36%)

Cravatex (CMP `658, TP: `771, Upside: 17%)

Motherson Sumi Systems

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

Indian Oil Corp Ltd - (28/05/2012)

NMDC Ltd - (28/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

GMR Infra Ltd - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

HPCL Ltd - (29/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

ONGC Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Power Grid Corporation Ltd (29/05/2012)

Sun Pharmaceutical - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Tata Motors - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

United Spirits Ltd - (29/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

DLF Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Gail Ltd - (30/05/2012)

Jaiprakash Associates - (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd - (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Tata Chemical Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Economic and Political News

Share of direct tax to touch 12% of GDP: Pranab Mukherjee

RIL buyback gains pace; purchases shares worth Rs 1,481 crore

May 31, 2012

June 01, 2012

May 28, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

May 29, 2012

May 30, 2012

May 31, 2012

Unemployment change (000's)