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Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
When less is not more
Minister for National Development Mr. Khaw Boon Wan recently noted in parliament that the number of completed shoebox units (defined here as units <51 sq m) in the market is expected to grow from about 2,500 to around 9,700 units by 2015, most of which will be in the suburbs. The governments vigilance in monitoring this segment serves as an indicator that additional regulations may be introduced when necessary. Indeed, the dynamics of new shoebox unit launches have changed again since the third round of cooling measures was implemented last year. Developments with many small-sized studio apartments are now springing up in the outskirts. Data reveal that 48% of new sales of shoebox units YTD have come from the North and North East Regions. Most units are from projects such as Parc Rosewood of Fragrance Group and The Hillier that comes from a consortium consisting of Far East, Fraser Centrepoint, and Sekisui House. Shoebox units are typically bought for investment purposes, as they require a lesser capital outlay and offer expectations of relatively higher rental yields. We understand why Central Region units have higher price tags (with rental yields slightly exceeding those of larger-sized apartments at around 5%) due to their prime locations. However, we are questioning the viability of suburban shoebox units that developers are rushing to price at SGD1,5002,000 psf. First, rental yields in central locations may not be representative of the potential yields in the outskirts, simply based on geographical reasons. Second, the lack of transactions in completed units within the resale market may offer some insight into the level of difficulty in realising any capital gains on shoebox units. As the supply of completed units surge by 2015, the viability of the shoebox unit market in the suburbs will be seriously put to the test.
New sales of shoebox units from 2005 to 2012 YTD
3000 2500 2000 1500 North East Region 1000 500 0 2005 Source: URA 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 West Region North Region Central Region East Region
24 May 2012
Shoebox pictures
Primary sales market the most active. Primary sales market is the most active out of the three markets, mainly because developers have been launching many more shoebox units over the past three years. There appears to be a psychological price-barrier of SGD1m 95% of the units were sold under SGD1m. Around 5% of the total units were sold above SGD1m. Robinson Suites by Fission Development, The Laurels by Sing Holdings, and The Peak @ Cairnhill by TG Development and TEE Development commanded the highest transaction prices historically for shoebox units that were sold at over SGD1.5m (SGD2,9003,400 psf) each. Sub-sale alluring until cooling measures. Sub-sale market appears to be more active than the resale market. The most popular projects in the sub-sale market include The Clift, Alexis, Thomson V Two, Robertson Edge, and Tyrwhitt 139 all of which have had over 30 sub-sale transactions. The Clift and Tyrwhitt 139 each saw over 50% of its units resold in the sub-sale market, which suggests a mispricing by developers, thus creating opportunities for investors to flip units upon completion. All sub-sale transactions above SGD1m are located in the central parts of the island. Sub-sale capital gains
Project name Alexis The Clift Tyrwhitt 139 Thomson V Two Robertson Edge Leasehold Freehold 99 Yr (fm 2004) Freehold Freehold 999 Yr (fm 1871) Launch date 2012 2011 2009 Uncompleted 2008 New sale ($PSF) 1,109 1,535 959 928 1320 Total unit 293 213 48 122 70 Sub-sale avg PSF 1,521 1,877 1,259 1,217 1.364 No. sub-sale transactions 80 152 33 40 37 Avg capital gain
167,010 149,060 128,809 109,725 149,060
Resale markets top transactions. The resale market has had 550 transactions since 2005. We find that of the few projects that have breached the SGD1.5m mark, all are located in the Core Central District. The most popular project that has achieved the highest resale transaction price would be Vida, a freehold project completed in 2009 by Far East Organization. The most expensive unit in Vida sold for SGD2,914 psf that translates into SGD1.53m. Out of the 550 transactions, 5% are above SGD1m, just breaching the SGD1,9902,900 psf range.
24 May 2012
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3 8 16 91 50 168
17 44 32 77 170
4 66 355 425
783
2005 2 3 2006 3 9 2007 20 26 2008 12 5 2009 24 21 2010 28 54 2011 38 43 2012* 12 8 Total 139 169 Source: URA * 2012 year-to-date data
1 6 7 1 15
2 2 1
24 May 2012
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24 May 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Criteria: shoebox units Project
MILL POINT PARC IMPERIAL KOVAN GRANDEUR LUMIERE PALM GALLERIA PARC IMPERIAL ESTILO THE SCENIC @ BRADDELL SOHO @ FARRER CASA FORTUNA D'ECOSIA PEOPLE'S PARK COMPLEX R66 APARTMENTS THE MAYLEA VIDA THE COTZ ESTILO TEMBELING RESIDENCE THE COTZ VIDA D' CASITA TYRWHITT 139 MOUNTBATTEN LODGE PEOPLE'S PARK COMPLEX THE COTZ VIDA TEMBELING RESIDENCE VIDA TYRWHITT 139 D' CASITA PARC IMPERIAL Source: URA
24 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Size (sq ft) 527 495 388 506 495 398 517 527 506 506 506 409 474 527 527 398 495 420 398 527 517 484 463 409 398 527
420 517 495 538 409
Price ($psf) 1864 1717 1466 2200 1333 1758 1757 1128 1314 1492 1350 1315 1510 1574 2256 1481 1793 1656 1514 2323 1293 1327 1534 1247 1496 2123 1496 2226 1313 1171 1692
Index SRPI Overall (Mar 12) URA PPI (1Q12) HDB Resale (1Q12)
Kovan Road / Simon Road Jervois Road Bedok South Avenue 3 Hillview Avenue Up Serangoon View/ Up Serangoon Rd
(EC)
35.7 12.5 60.2 35.4 43.4 13.2 22.0 32.7 25.8 20.8 56.2
360 140 595 370 435 395 770 295 720 580 600
Punggol Central/ Edgefield (EC) Fernvale Lane (EC) Elias Rd/ Pasir Ris Dr 3 Woodlands Ave 5/ Woodlands Dr 16
(EC)
Hoi Hup consortium Singapore Land Far East/ Frasers/ Sekisui House Kingsford Development Ho Lee Group Pte & Evia Real Estate Qingjian Realty (South Pacific) Peak Living Pte Elitist Development Hao Yuan Investment Singxpress, Creative Inv, Kay Lim F.E Lakeside Pte
Site area (k sqm)
195 119 346 243 142 137 245 166 247 234 253
507 881 534 638 303 320 296 461 318 374 418
Tender closing
Confirmed List
Site Boon Lay Way (Jurong Gateway) Sengkang Square/ Compassvale Drive Pasir Ris Dr 3 Buangkok Drive/ Sengkang Central Pheng Geck Avenue (Parcel B)
Units
Property Stocks
Disc to Company Price RNAV RNAV CapitaLand 2.46 5.03 -51% City Dev 9.93 12.62 -21% Guocoland 1.56 NA NA Ho Bee 1.17 3.18 -63% Keppel land 2.85 5.77 -51% OUE 2.07 NA NA SC Global 0.975 3.49 -72% Singapore Land 5.53 9.71 -43% UIC 2.5 NA NA UOL 4.21 NA NA Wheelock 1.645 NA NA Wing Tai 1.285 2.81 -54% N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported NAV /share 3.51 7.66 2.15 2.34 3.81 3.53 1.56 11.78 3.16 6.49 2.35 2.51 Disc/ Prem to NAV -30% 30% -27% -50% -25% -41% -38% -53% -21% -35% -30% -49%
Farrer Drive** Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Farrer Rd Alexandra View Punggol Way/ Punggol Walk (EC) Bishan Street 14 Source: HDB, URA
24 May 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Take -up rate (%) 66% 6% 69% 75% 84% 22% 73% 92% 46% 59% 55% 90% 100% 63% 93% 64% 75% 48% 66% 72% 58% 56% 72% 49% 86% 26% 65% 99% 100% 93% 75% 58% 97% 57% 40% 96% 66% 37% 53% 88% 91% 86% 66% 48% 87% 78% 85% Units sold (Apr) 87 26 14 12 19 16 46 32 23 18 15 15 244 91 27 26 19 16 15 174 153 39 35 13 13 131 106 69 68 60 54 49 35 34 33 20 13 154 51 25 24 18 36 36 15 14 13
Median
24 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
($psf) 2,485 1,337 1,164 2,675 1,434 1,939 1,806 1,430 1,541 1,196 1,162 1,136 1,708 1,062 1,463 1,259 1,400 1,493 1,334 876 871 805 905 1,214 738 1,583 1,189 927 1,292 717 829 865 1,279 1042 1,263 1,008 1,366 1,054 1,326 705 771 1297 876 1,161 829 1529 827
City & Southwest (1-8) Eon Shenton 132 87 Seahill 454 26 Interlace 1040 718 Marina Bay Suites 221 165 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Rochelle at Newton 129 108 8 Bassein 74 16 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) 18 Woodsville 101 74 Smart Suites 72 66 Cradels 125 57 Idyllic Suites 71 42 Riviera 38 102 56 Vacanza @ East 473 425 East Coast (15-16) Katong Regency 244 244 Archipelago 577 361 91 Marshall 30 28 Flamingo Valley 393 252 Sycamore Tree 96 72 The Seawind 222 107 The Cristallo 74 49 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) Ripple Bay 679 491 Palm Isles 429 250 Tampines Trilliant 670 375 The Palette 892 643 My Manhattan 301 147 Arc at Tampines 574 492 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Sky Habitat 509 131 164 106 The Promenade@Pelikat 1145 1129 The Minton Thomson Grand 361 361 Twin Waterfalls 728 676 Parc Vera 452 341 Riversound Residence 590 342 36 35 Presto@Upper Serangoon 622 356 The Luxurie Bartley Residences 702 284 Terrasse 414 399 Bliss@Kovan 140 92 West (22-24) Hillsta 416 154 Natura@Hillview 193 103 Blossom Residences 602 527 The Rainforest 466 425 Qube Suites 21 18 North (25-28) The Nautical 435 286 276 133 Seletar Park Residences Eight Courtyards 654 570 The Springside 76 59 Eight Courtyards 654 555 Source: URA
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA
$psf Feb12 1,347 1,776 1,207 928 977 774 899 793 710
$psf Mar12 1,347 1,743 1,233 990 1,031 802 880 791 743
MoM % change 0.0 -1.9 2.2 6.7 5.5 3.7 -2.2 -0.2 4.7
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Feb12 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.0 $psf pm Mar12 4.6 4.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 MoM % change -5.2 -1.4 -3.2 -3.9 -2.0 -2.0 1.3 1.4 -12.9
Secondary Market
24 May 2012 Page 6 of 9
DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 1 3 6 9 10 10 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank
24 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Tenure 99Yr 99Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr 99Yr Freehold 99Yr 99Yr 99Yr 99Yr 99Yr 99Yr 99Yr
Unsold Units 20 545 118 122 203 178 1 156 5 138 249 1,517 605 135 418 785 90 41 75 207 5,608 56 620 283 307 234 94 266 1,860
City Dev
One Shenton (Marina Bay) Alexandra Road GLS site (Alexandra Road) South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Volari (Balmoral Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North (Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North) H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley Road) HAUS@Serangoon Garden (Serangoon Garden Way) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 6 (Keppel Bay) The Luxurie (Sengkang Square) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19
CapitaLand
3 9 9 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Orchard Residences (Orchard Road) Wharf Residence (Tong Watt Road) D'Leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
99Yr Freehold 99Yr 999Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr Freehold
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa 11
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Trilight (Newton Road) Total Unsold Units
UOL
2 16
Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) Holland Residences (Taman Warna) Riverbay (Mar Thorma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thorma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 1D) (Bukit Batok Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
Freehold 99yr
Allgreen
2 5 9 10 12 12 21 23 23
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
24 May 2012
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24 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 2 381 76 34 993 66 54 24 88 221 80 232 70 835 249 141 21 595 92 179 107 54 52 84 1,574 14 64 38 42 157 27 265 607 32 70 65 23 188 15 370 35 203 23 35 50 31 377
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah / Choon Guan) Sophia Residence (Mount Sophia) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) Goodwood Residence (Bukit Timah Road) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23
MCL Land
11 10 15 16 17 19
Palms @ Sixth Avenue (Six Avenue ) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Uber 388 (Upper East Cost) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Sculptura Ardmore (Ardmore Park) The Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units
16,417
24 May 2012
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