Important dates

Midterm: Mon., Feb 6, 1:30-2:50 Final: Fri., Mar. 16, 10:30-12:30

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Download syllabus, lecture slides, homework, grade info etc. from Chalk

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Textbook
Keller and DeVecchio, 3rd Ed Prentice Hall @Bookstore & Crerar
Read 1 this week (see syllabus for reading plan)

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Five (Semi) Weekly Assignments Two Lab reports Midterm Exam Final Exam

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

(Semi) Weekly Assignments (x5)

Done electronically on Chalk Web-based short research Calculations

Assigned Friday, due next Friday (midnight)
Wednesday, January 4, 2012

PHSC 13600 Natural Hazards

Lab sections start next week.

Place: Hinds 361

Need to change lab sections? Go to
https://classes.uchicago.edu

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Weather Lab: week of January 30 Tsunami Lab: week of February 27

Hinds 436 Hydrodynamics Lab

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Grading

Homework 30% Lab reports 20% Midterm 20% Final exam 30%
All late submissions will be given 80% of the credit
Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Course Objectives
Hazard types, geography and statistics Underlying physical principles and
mechanisms

Methods of observation Current scientic understanding and

forecast skills

Understanding basic risk assessment

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Math ?
x , e , ln x, sin !
p x

+!"

a calculator
d 2 2 arctan( x + a , dx
Wednesday, January 4, 2012

## ! 2 %% "q !q %% $$

dS

Video (18.5 minutes)

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Types of Natural Hazards

Hurricanes, Storm Surge Thunderstorms, Tornadoes Snowstorms, Extratropical Cyclones Floods Drought/Heat Wildres
Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Types of Natural Hazards

Earthquakes Tsunamis Volcanoes Mudslides and Avalanches Coastal Erosion Asteroid Impacts
Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Some Denitions

Hazards occurring Naturally

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Affect human interests

Disasters

Affect society Property damage, injury, loss of lives

Catastrophes
Major disasters

Monitoring current events

Alert maps
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

Media portals
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/natural-disasters

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Geography of Natural Hazards

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

US natural hazard deaths by event type 1970-2004 Borden and Cutter (2008)

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

What makes a hazard a disaster?

Human population Improper land use

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Magnitude of event

Land Use and Urban Planning

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Land Use and Urban Planning

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

What makes a hazard a disaster?

Lack of preparedness (personal; socio-economic) Human psychology

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Preparedness

Forecast skill varies depending

Knowledge and information on the type of hazards

Drills and contingency planning

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

History and Natural Hazards

History of an area gives clues

to potential hazards

Natural hazards are repetitive

Maps, historical accounts, climate and weather data Rock types, faults, folds, soil composition

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

312

E. LEKKAS ET AL.

Figure 2. Tsunami run-up zones for the Tohoku earthquake 11-3-2011. Propagation vectors are marked with black arrows, indicative peak run-ups are marked with red triangles and run-up values with black-yellow numbers. Contour lines show crust uplift (red) and subsidence (blue) in meters. The maximum runup zones indicate areas where runup generally did not exceed the indicated elevation, except for the cases of peaks, due to local conditions, discussed in the text.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

The maximum tsunami height was recorded by JMA at Miyako, Iwate prefecture, at March 11 2011, 15:26 JST reaching a height of 8.5 m. It is clear that tsunami run-up reached a greater height, as concluded by field surveying and disasters. However, estimations of tsunami height are higher than the ones recorded by JMA.

one kilometer inland, the tsunami height was measured to more than 10m (Figure 5). Run-up is defined as the maximum vertical elevation of a point on initially dry land that is inundated by the waves [9]. The measurements in Table 1 show first arrival and maximum height in Hokkaido Prefecture

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Human Behaviors
What motivates a persons behavior when disaster strikes?

Altruism Rational response requires

Panic vs. Normalcy Bias
Wednesday, January 4, 2012

preparedness, adequate information