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TREVALI MINING
Transition nearly complete EVENT
Trevali Mining has commenced production at its 100%-owned Halfmile Mine located in the Bathurst Mining Camp of Northern New Brunswick. The Company has also provided an update on the development of its 100%-owned Santander Mine located in Peru.
Recommendation: BUY
Symbol/Exchange: TV/TSX Sector: Metals and Mining All dollar values in C$ unless otherwise noted. Current price: $1.41 One-year target: $2.30 Target return: 63% Cash on Hand: $15M
BOTTOM LINE
Trevali Mining is in the process of putting both of its polymetallic mines into production this year and is in the final stages of transitioning from a developer to a producer. We expect Trevali to undergo a trading multiple expansion as it completes this process.
Company Summary
Shares O/S (M) Market cap ($M) Market float ($M) 148.0 52-week range $208.7 Avg. weekly vol. (000) $182.4 Fiscal year-end 2010A Zinc Production (M lbs) Net Revenue ($M) Operating Cost ($M) EBITDA ($M) EPS, diluted Operational CFPS Price/revenue Price/OCFPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMF NMF NMF 2011A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NMF NMF NMF 2012E 103.95 196.39 71.22 76.54 0.69 0.51 NMF NMF
$ 0.79 - 2.34
1.609 31-Dec 2013E 157.45 333.81 103.56 152.28 1.45 1.04 0.6 1.4
Equity Research
We are raising our recommendation to BUY from BUY (Speculative) but decreasing our target price to $2.30/share from $4.00/share primarily due to share dilution and the application of a lower P/NAV multiple.
FOCUS POINTS
Trevali Mining has commenced production at its Halfmile Mine and the ore will be sent to Xstratas Brunswick mill for processing. The company intends to ramp up production to 2,000 tonnes per day during the current quarter. The Santander project development is on schedule and is expected to be commissioned in Q2-Q3 2012. Rare zinc leverage. With Breakwater and Farallon acquired in 2011, there is a shortage of zinc-focused companies. We estimate that zinc accounts for 73% of Trevalis revenue on a steady state basis.
Company profile: Trevali Mining is a Canadianbased zinc producer/developer. The Halfmile Mine and Stratmat polymetallic deposit is located in New Brunswick and production at Halfmile began in 2012. The Santander project is located in Peru and is expected to be commissioned in mid-2012
Price (C$)
Volume (M)
Trevali Mining
HALFMILE IN PRODUCTION
Trevali Mining has announced that it has commenced production at its Halfmile mine located in New Brunswick. Material is being extracted from the upper zone and will be sent to Xstratas Brunswick 12 mill for processing. Ore is currently being stockpiled prior to the first shipment to the mill.
Exhibit 1. Halfmile mine development plan
Management has indicated that production is expected to be ramped up to the 2,000 tonnes per day by the end of Q1/12. An underground development crew was mobilized to extend the access ramp the mines second level, which is necessary for the mine to achieve nameplate production.
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Primary and secondary mills are empty of charges and are currently being dismantled. Tertiary Mill dismantled and out. Cell-House (Zn-Pb) dismantled and cells, impellors and pumps out. Zn, Pb, & tailings thickeners in process of being X-rayed prior to disassembly. Compressor house dismantled and compressors (3) and blowers (2) packed and ready to move. Majority of piping removed. New equipment - Zinc Cells, Filter, Rock-breaker cleared through Customs at Lima Port (Callao) and is on site at Santander.
Mine Infrastructure and Power Management is planning to commence underground development in April 2012. Current mine development includes the following: Portal preparation complete (4.5 by 4.5m - capable of accommodating 30-tonne haul trucks) Closed Mine Water system (no surface water mixing) advanced Foundations and support for the compressor house, lunch room, training room, lamp-room, offices and underground fleet maintenance shops in place. Explosive Magazines fully permitted. Remaining civil-work will occur in Q1/2 2012 and includes: increased industrial water storage capacity that will be completed prior to 'dry' season; construction of 60,000-tonne coarse mineral-stock pile (one month's mill capacity) and temporary waste dumps and upgrade tailings management facility to a closed system. The new main substation at Santander Mine is largely complete with transformers and switches all delivered and installed. A long-term power purchase agreement is in place with SNP Power -- which allows for 2.4Mw initial power. Upon completion of the Tingo Hydro Power Plant, Santander will have access to approximately 15Mw of power from two different sources that should facilitate any potential production increases going forward. Permits Two key permits are expected to be received in the first quarter of 2012. Positive notice was received from the Ministry of Energy and Mines in late November. Trevali has successfully completed the standard 30-day notice period and the company expects the final permit by March 2012. Trevali received minor comments on the Mine Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in late November - early December and responses were lodged prior to year-end. Receipt of the mine EIA permit is expected in late Q1/12.
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Net Asset Value
(C$ thousands, unless otherwise indicated)
Mining Assets
CDN$ 000s Halfmile Santander Tingo Hydro Facility Ruttan/Other Exploration Total Mining Assets $276,653 $243,055 $10,000 $9,300 $539,008
Financial Assets
CDN$ 000s Cash Working Capital (net of Cash) Long-Term Debt Proceeds from ITM Instruments Net Asset Value Shares Outstanding (M) NAV/sh Fully-diluted shares outstanding NAV per share (C$/share) Current share price (C$/share) Price / NAV $15,000 ($9,666) ($3,585) $29,000 $30,750 $569,758 148,000 $3.85 177,000 $3.22 $1.41 0.44x
CDN$
(1) Financial assets are as of last reported Financial Statements Sept 30, 2011 with adjustments made for recent capital raise
Our 10% NAV decreases to $3.85 per share from $3.95 per share, or by 2.5%. Our P/NAV valuation multiple has decreased to 0.6x from 0.9x to reflect the peer group average (see exhibit 4). As a result we are decreasing our target price to $2.30 per share from $4.00 per share, which reflects a decrease of 43%. Trevali currently trades at a 0.44x P/NAV multiple, which we believe will expand to at least be in line with its peer groups 0.6x P/NAV multiple. Moreover, since Trevali is a rare, highly-levered zinc play we argue that it deserves a premium multiple once it achieves nameplate production at its two mines.
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Analyst certification
The research analyst whose name appears on this report hereby certifies that the opinions and recommendations expressed herein accurately reflect his personal views about the securities, issuers or industries discussed herein.
Definitions of recommendations
BUY: The stock is attractively priced relative to the companys fundamentals and we expect it to appreciate significantly from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months.
BUY (Speculative): The stock is attractively priced relative to the companys fundamentals, however investment in the security carries a higher degree of risk.
NEUTRAL: The stock is fairly valued, lacks a near term catalyst, or its execution risk is such that we expect it to trade within a narrow range of the current price in the next 6 to 12 months. The longer term fundamental value of the company may be materially higher, but certain milestones/catalysts have yet to be fully realized. SELL: The stock is overpriced relative to the companys fundamentals, and we expect it to decline from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months. TENDER: We believe the offer price by the acquirer is fair and thus recommend investors tender their shares to the offer. UNDER REVIEW: We are temporarily placing our recommendation under review until further information is disclosed. Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund Customers' accounts are protected by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund within specified limits. A brochure describing the nature and limits of coverage is available upon request.
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