CHINA WARNS OF WAR WITH PH IF PRESSED INTO A CORNER THE SCARBOROUGH SHOAL AFFAIR By Rene Villaroman, Managing Editor

By the sheer number of Chinese vessels now deployed on the disputed Scarborough Shoal, it appears that the standoff between Beijing and Manila has escalated. By last count, there are 33 Chinese vessels arrayed against four smaller Philippine maritime surveillance ships and a Bureau of Fisheries law enforcement command vessel. But it is still a standoff. Beijing and Manila both have their wits about them, and firing the first shot would do either one any good. However, it has become very clear that China, by virtue of its size alone, has shown that might is right, and it is not shy about telling this to its Filipino challengers.

On Thursday, the state-run China Daily News echoed other warnings in recent weeks that China was prepared to use its massive military advantage to crush the Philippines challenge for the shoal. In an editorial, the Chinese government-controlled daily warned, Manila is living in a fantasy if it mistakes our forbearance for timidity.

No matter how willing we are to discuss the issue, the current Philippine leadership is intent on pressing us into a corner where there is no other option left but the use of arms, the editorial said.

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, said China was committed to a peaceful resolution.

The April Chinese illegal fishing incident on Scarborough Shoal was not Chinas first incursion into disputed waters to go fishing illegally in other bodies of water in Asia. Theyve done it in Japan, and in Indonesia, and China had condoned these poaching by Chinese fishermen in waters that did not belong in their territorial boundaries.

It is clear that Beijing is doing little, if anything, to rein in the fishing boats that have precipitated nearly every maritime confrontation in Asia over the past several years, wrote Asian studies scholar and Wall

StreetStreet-Journal.com columnist Michael Auslin. He said that prior to Chinas incursion in the scarborough Shoal, Japan and Indonesia were forced to act against Chinese fishermen in disputed waters. Tellingly Auslin claimed, China now no longer hesitates to send armed maritime patrol ships (not regular navy) to prevent those fishermen from being arrested by foreign nations.

Global Pinoys Protest Vs. China On Friday, May 11, the US Pinoys for Good Governance headed by Loida Nicolas Lewis demonstrated their ire against the bullying tactics being employed by China by mounting demonstrations at Chinese embassies and consulates in the world. In an interview with ANC, Nicolas-Lewis said, Im calling on the global Pinoys who are concerned about the this intrusion of China and who are singing the national anthem, sa manlulupig di ka pasisiil; lets stand up and show up on Friday, May 11.

Filipinos in the United States, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, and other countries were also expected to launch protests in front of Chinese embassies and consulates the countries where they reside. Says Nicolas-Lewis: The international family of nations should see that this big wannabe world power China is not following international law. She led the protest in New York.

US to Honor Mutual Defense Treaty Even though the United States refuses to be involved in the territorial dispute, the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs has said that Manilas key ally will not tolerate the use of force and that it shares the Philippines position that the standoff must be resolved legally and peacefully. Also under the Mutual Defense Treaty, the US is obliged to assist the Philippines if its Armed Forces public vessels or aircrafts are attacked. The US Constitution also says that the US President, as commander-in-chief, may commit its armed forces services but must notify the US Congress within 48 hours of such action, as provided for under War Powers Resolution of 1973.

Banana Republic Aside from fraying some Filipino nerves, the Scarborough Affair is also liable to take a toll in the countrys economy, especially in its multimillion dollar banana industry. The Philippines exports some 75 million boxes of banana to foreign markets, and half of that goes to China. Recently, following the Scarborough Shoal standoff, China reportedly imposed tighter quarantine rules on a Philippine banana shipment, and that got Stephen Antig, President of the Pilipino Banana Growers and Exporters Association, on the edge. He said that China is the biggest buyer of Philippine Cavendish bananas. For its part, China has denied the stricter rules had anything to do with the standoff. Be that as it may, if we lost the Chinese banana market, would that push the country to the brink of being a Banana Republic?

Tense Standoff Manila and Beijing have been engaged in the standoff since April after Philippine Fisheries authorities arrested several Chinese fishermen poaching giant clams, baby sharks and other protected marine life in the waters of Scarborough Shoal. China and the Philippines are both claiming the ring-shaped coral reef with rocky outcrops encircling a lagoon located 124 nautical miles off the province of Zambales and 472 nautical miles from Chinas nearest coast of Hainan province.

The Philippines has said that the shoal, which is named Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc in maritime maps, belongs to them on the basis of a United Nations Convention of the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS) rule that gives maritime nations the right to explore, exploit and develop areas within its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

The Philippines has asked China to bring the dispute to international arbitration for resolution, but Beijing resisted, a move which Manila says is an indication that it is not ready to validate its claims.