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Market Overview
Good Morning, equities ended Fridays trading session aggressively lower and were also lower on the week, the USD & JPY continued to outperform other currencies, commodities continues to struggle with Gold & Silver being an exception and the safe haven assets, German bonds & US Treasuries were higher (lower yield). The Vix closed the week at 26.66. It has now become pretty clear that no news is interpreted by investors as bad news as it signals more than anything that European leaders just dont have a solution for the current situation as they continue to combat between austerity & Growth. Fridays numbers highlighting two main issues 1) the poor economic situation in Europe (European PMI Manufacturing indices were weak with the German PMI Index at 45.2) and 2) the weakening economic activity and Labor market in the US with personal income weaker than expected, Unemployment rate higher than expected (8.2% vs. 8.1% expected) and nonfarm payrolls which were not only weaker in May (+69K vs. +150K expected) but were also revised a lot lower in previous month (April payrolls were revised 43K lower). Very little developments over the weekend besides the usual talks that EU leaders will come up with a solution in their next summit (which in most cases end up being a disappointment), Asian markets are lower today followed by the poor US close on Friday, US Futures are also lower (nearly -0.5%) and European markets are set for a lower open on the day. EU, ECB Working on Master Plan Towards Fiscal Union; the plan is supposed to be presented at the next EU Summit scheduled for late June. The main goal is to hand the European Commission & Parliament more power over national budgets and the power to force Euro Zone members to stand up to their fiscal goals. The plan includes a coordinated European approach for reforming Labor markets, Social Security system and Tax policies.
PROBE: a proprietary index measuring the break-even probability of a given deal. 04 June 2012
Spain Seeks United Effort to Protect European Banks; Spanish Prime Minister has called for a more robust banking union in Europe, lending his support for a centralized system to re-capitalize lenders. The main opponent for this Idea is German with Merkel making it clear that under no circumstances would she agree to such measures. Economic data today offers Euro Zone Producer Price Index & US ISM New York & Factory Orders, and Good Luck!
Risk Arbitrage
Sydney Morning Herald: Xstrata shareholders are threatening to scupper a $US90 billion friendly merger with Glencore after scheme documents revealed the chief executive, Mick Davis, stands to collect up to 75 million over the next three years, including retention payments without any performance hurdles. One top 20 Xstrata shareholder told London's Financial Times the benefits package was ''very provocative and has changed the debate from a vote on the GlencoreXstrata merger to a debate on Mick Davis's remuneration''. The FT said 12 per cent of Xstrata shareholders were opposed to the deal, with another large investor telling the newspaper: ''The shareholders of Xstrata are not getting a premium, but Mick Davis clearly is getting one.'' Reuters: Negotiations for Dell Inc to acquire Quest Software Inc have broken off but lower-level representatives from both companies remain in touch, two sources familiar with the matter said. A previous deal for Dell to buy Quest at a range $23 to $26 per share fell through last month. Dell has been seeking to diversify its business away from personal computer hardware. NY Times: Verizon Communications said on Friday that it had agreed to buy Hughes Telematics, a maker of wireless systems for vehicles, for $612 million in cash. Under the terms of the deal, Verizon will pay $12 a share, an exorbitant premium to Hughes Thursday closing price of $4.35. The deal is aimed at building up Verizons offerings in products like GPS and auto safety and entertainment features, at a time when telecom companies are seeking new sources of revenue. Bloomberg: EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the biggest publicly traded Arab investment bank, rejected a 6.5 billion-Egyptian pound ($1.1 billion) bid from a group backed by billionaire Naguib Sawiris in favor of setting up a venture with Qatars QInvest LLC. Planet IB Ltd.s 13.5 pounds-a-share offer or 23 percent more than the stocks May 31 close, lacked details on the financing resources as well as information about the investors, Cairo-based EFG-Hermes said today. The shares rose 0.4 percent to 11.01 at the close of trading in the Egyptian capital, taking their gains this year to 10 percent.
04 June 2012
premiums. Ten of Generalis 17 board members voted to oust Mr Perissinotto. Five directors, including Mr Perissinotto, voted in favour of the chief executive, one abstained and one missed the meeting.
Broker Recommendations
Positive US: Negative Logica Cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS; PT Set at 107p Kar Auction Services Inc Raised to 'Outperform' at Robert Baird
Country EC EC EC US US
Event Sentix Investor Confidence Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) ISM New York Factory Orders
Actual ------
Revised -----1.90%
04 June 2012