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Important Information
Investec Global Energy Fund (the "Fund") is an equity sector mutual fund. The Fund aims to achieve capital growth b i it l th by investing i th equity i t ti in the it instruments of i t t f internationally quoted companies th ti ll t d i throughout th h t the world involved in the exploration, production or distribution of oil, gas and other energy sources. Key risks of the product: Sector risk - The Fund invests in single sector and subjects to greater volatility than a broadly diversified portfolio. The sector may decline even while broader based equity market indices are rising. Smaller company risk The Fund may invest in smaller companies and their shares may be less liquid and more volatile than the shares of larger companies due to the smaller number of shares in issue and companies, the frequently less diversified and less established nature of the business. These factors can create a greater potential for significant capital losses. In the worst case scenario, the value of the Fund may be worth substantially less than the original amount you invested and in an extreme case could be worth nothing. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in the Fund unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to y that the Fund is suitable for y having regard to y y p you you g g your financial situation, , investment experience and investment objectives. Investors should not only base on this material alone to make investment decisions. Please refer to the Fund Prospectus for the details of all risk factors.
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Target audience
This document is meant to be read only by professional investors, professional financial advisors and, at their exclusive discretion, their clients. No other person should rely on the information contained in this document. y plan to show this to y your clients, p please ensure that y comply with any applicable you py y pp If you p local marketing regulations. This document is not to be generally distributed to the public.
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Table of contents
Introduction Team and products Investment process Funds structure Investment case for energy equities gy The macro outlook for energy Key themes for 2010 Near term supply and demand L Long t term supply and d l d demand d Gas markets pp Appendix Performance
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Credit Suisse Asset Management, Energy Previous energy research and industry experience (Wood Mackenzie & Shell and Resources Portfolio Manager International)
Top rankings independently recognised by both oil companies and investors with a proven t ac eco d of alpha generation both o g Only and o g/S o t st ateg es track record o a p a ge e at o in bot Long O y a d Long/Short strategies
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George Cheveley
Co-portfolio Co portfolio Manager Global Dynamic Resources Base Metals & Bulks
LDN
Mark Lacey
Co-portfolio Manager, Global Energy
LDN
Jonathan Waghorn
Co-portfolio Manager, Global Energy
LDN
Daniel Sacks
Co-portfolio Manager Global Gold
CPT
Dawid Heyl
Investment Analyst, Soft Commodities
LDN
John Thompson
Investment Analyst, Soft Commodities
CPT
Scott Winship
Investment Analyst, Gold and Precious Metals
CPT
Kevin de Villiers
Trading
CPT
Ruchir Patel
Trading
LDN
Cumulative market and industry experience of over 100 years AUM of $4.5 billion in global commodities and resources as at 30 June 2010
GSF Global Energy Fund $1,236m OEIC Global Energy Fund* $359m
GSF launch date: 25 Jan 1985 Structure: Luxembourg SICAV OEIC launch date: 29 Nov 2004 Structure: UK OEIC Index: MSCI World Energy
GSF Global Gold Fund $354m OEIC Global Gold Fund* $162m
GSF launch date: 26 Nov 1990 Structure: Luxembourg SICAV OEIC launch date: 10 April 2006 Structure: UK OEIC Index: HSBC Global Gold
Launch Date: 1 Feb 1995 Structure: South Africa Index: INVCM Benchmark
Executive summary
The Investec GSF Global Energy Fund
We seek to deliver returns that exceed those of the MSCI World Energy Index by: Using the fundamental and rigorous investment process that is being used across all Investec Asset Managements energy products Using our proprietary Energy Commodity Indicator to optimise the selection and timing of investments Leveraging our numerous high quality industry contacts to get access to the best industry and company information The Global Energy Fund has a high quality long term track record The Fund has returned 330% over ten years versus the MSCI World Energy Index (up 116%) in USD
Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future and there is no guarantee that this investment will make profits; losses can be made. Source: Investec Asset Management, Lipper to 31 07 10 NAV based (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any Management 31.07.10, initial charge), gross income reinvested, in US dollars. Performance is of the A Income share class. Performance would be lower had initial charges been included.
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GSF
Investment process
Investment process
A structured and disciplined investment process
Commodity 1 Commodity analysis
Supply/demand and break-even price analysis indicates likely commodity price trends
Equity analysis
Proprietary earnings and valuation models P i t i d l ti d l for companies
Market consideration forward curve volatility liquidity Sellside sentiment consideration, curve, volatility, liquidity. Sell side sentiment. Management meetings
Portfolio construction
Commodity Indicator: Built bespoke commodity indicators to determine the relationship between the performance of the mix of commodities that the company is exposed to (commodity indicator) vs. the performance of the companys share price g p y y price. When High correlation between a companys commodity indicator and its share p these diverge, it provides a potential investment opportunity
Canadian oils have underperformed their commodity mix by 2% over the last 3 months, while the global Majors have underperformed theirs by 21%. Potential % oe a Long Only fund action: go overweight Majors, underweight Canadians
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Data as of mid 2009 and is meant for illustrative purposes only
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Statoil has underperformed its commodity mix by 17% over the last 3 months, while Repsol has outperformed its by 9%. Potential absolute return fund action: go long Statoil, short Repsol
Data as of mid 2009 and is meant for illustrative purposes only p p y This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security.
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We consider all of the following factors before making an investment Meeting management. We will meet company management teams wherever possible prior to investing to discuss current operational performance and costs Trading patterns We have dedicated traders for all our equity and commodity trades patterns. Market liquidity. We monitor equity and commodity volumes, trading patterns and risk appetites S ll id sentiment. W maintain strong relationships with sell-side counterparties Sell-side ti t We i t i t l ti hi ith ll id t ti
These qualitative issues complement the quantitative analysis and co p e e our stock selection process complete ou s oc se ec o p ocess
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#The
funds have not been authorised by the SFC and therefore are not available to Hong Kong investors.
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GSF
Funds structure
These internal parameters are subject to change, not necessarily with prior notification to shareholders.
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Performance attribution
Investec GSF Global Energy Fund 1H 2010 and 2009
Key +ve contributors vs the benchmark in 1H 2010 were: Underweight BP. Overweight Smith International, Baker Hughes and Marathon Key ve contributors vs the ve benchmark in 1H 2010 were: Underweight ConocoPhillips and Occidental. Overweight Sevan Marine and Weatherford Key +ve contributors vs the benchmark in 2009 were: Underweight ExxonMobil and Chevron. Chevron Overweight Petrobras Petrobras, Afren, Quicksilver, Venture and Weatherford Key ve contributors vs the benchmark in 2009 were: Underweight BG, Woodside, NOV, Tullow, Schlumberger. Overweight ConocoPhillips and Frontier
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Investec Asset Management
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The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time time. This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Investec Asset Management, as at 31.07.10.
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The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time. time This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Investec Asset Management, as at 31.07.10
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GSF
160.0
6.0
6.0
120.0
4.0
3.8
80 - 85
80.0
55 35
2.0 20
40.0 40 0
0.0
0.0
Global Gas Demand: Gas demand growth outpaces oil demand growth
Global gas demand grew 2.4% CAGR over the last 15 years Growth in LNG demand of ~7% CAGR over the last decade outpaced that of overall gas demand During 2009 growth in China India UK and US offset material year on year declines in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan 2009, China, India, year-on-year Japan LNG represents ~10% of total gas consumption, up from 6% in 2000 LNG will continue to gain its share of global energy demand as countries move away from coal and oil (on a relative basis) In contrast, non-OPEC crude oil supply has g pp y grown by only 5 mmbpd ( y y p (1% annually) during the last 10 y y) g years
Industrial 30%
Power Generation 26%
Commercial 14%
Residential 22%
Other 5%
bcfd
10 8 6 4 2 0
1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
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80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
$8.00
$6.00 $
$4.00
$2.00
$0.00
$0.00
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Credit Suisse, June 2010
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SWN UPL CHK XEC DVN CRZO UNT FST NBL EOG RRC HK NFX APA OXY MUR COG CRK BBG ROSE EQT KWK APC PXD SM WTI PXP SD
SWN UPL CHK CRZO XEC CRK EOG RRC DVN COG UNT NFX BBG FST HK ROSE APC GMXR KWK PVA PETD EQT SD DPTR
Source Ports e
2H08 0.5
1H10
E&P acquisitions
Based on these valuations, at $7/mmbtu, we still see significant upsides to a number of the US E&P companies
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Company data, Investec Asset Management estimates, April 2010
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This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security Source: Investec Asset Management, March 2010
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This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security Source: Bloomberg, March 2010
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Near-term supply/demand
De-stocking is required to overcome the current inventory overhang
There is still around 61 days of forward cover in OECD stocks We need this forward cover to return to more normal levels of 52-56 days A return to these levels will allow crude prices to move sustainably higher
OECD total (crude + products) inventories, bn bbl OECD total inventories, days demand
Source: IEA, Investec Asset Management estimates 2008 , g Source: OECD and BP
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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Source: Simmons & Company; Investec Asset Management estimates estimates, February 2010
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Source: Simmons & Company; Investec Asset Management estimates February estimates, 2010
10% 10%
5%
4%
5%
20bn
1.0 0.0 00
Source: AAPG
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Long term supply: Reserve additions and value creation through exploration
Aside from a few companies, exploration success has been limited
Net present value of discoveries as a % of EV
80%
70% 200%
60%
30%
100%
0%
Soco INPEX Cairn India Tullow Galp Petrobras BG Murphy Anadarko Marathon Woodside Chevron Noble Energy Repsol Hess Reliance BP TOTAL Encana CNOOC Statoil Nexen ConocoPhillips RDShell Petrochina Devon Energy ENI ExxonMobil Apache Husky Energy Sinopec Corp BHP Billiton
0%
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Goldman Sachs, February 2010
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Galp Tullow INPEX BG Murphy Reliance Cairn India Petrobras Woodside Repsol Soco Marathon Noble Energy ENI Sinopec Corp Anadarko Husky Energy TOTAL Chevron Statoil RDShell Apache CNOOC Hess BP BHP Billiton ConocoPhillips ExxonMobil Petrochina Nexen Encana Devon Energy Lukoil
Mexico
( )
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009E 2012E
2 2012E
United States
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000
2015E
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Delivery in line with history One percent decline and historical delivery
2014
$100
OPEC capacity utilisation C
110.0% 110 0%
$80
$/bbl
30 29 28 27 $20 26 25 $0 $60
100.0%
$40
95.0%
90.0%
85.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
WTI
Base case
Historical delivery
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Oil reserves of 115 billion barrels Projects announced so far are targeted to add 6.1mmb/d of additional capacity by 2017! Over $12 billion p.a. of capital expenditure is needed over this period
4% 2% 0% 06 07 08 09E 10E 11E 12E 13E 14E 15E 16E 17E 18E
40% 100,000 35% 30% 25% kb b/d 60,000 20% 15% 10% 20,000 5% 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 0 20 8 10 20 e 12 20 e 14 e
Wor Excess Capacity as % of Product Capacity rld s
80,000
30%
20%
40,000
10%
0%
0%
-10%
Global LD capacity Global 'others' capacity Global excess cap as % total capacity
19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 e 20 12 e 20 14 e
Light Distillates Middle Distillates Fuel Oil
N.America Excess Capacity lots more fuel oil, still short gasoline
N North America Excess Capa acity as % of Product Capac city 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100%
19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 e 20 12 e 20 14 e
MS Estimates
MS Estimates
Light Distillates
Middle Distillates
Fuel Oil
Light Distillates
Middle Distillates
Fuel Oil
APAC Excess Capacity longer fuel oil, balanced light and middle distillate capacity
60% APAC Excess Capacity as % of Product Capacity y MS Estimates 40%
Middle East Excess Capacity not the export threat that is widely perceived
Middle East Excess Capac as % of Product Capacit city ty 70% MS Estimates 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 e e 12 20 20 10 19 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 14 e
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 e 20 12 e 20 14 e
Light Distillates
Middle Distillates
Fuel Oil
Light Distillates
Middle Distillates
Fuel Oil
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GSF
Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future and there is no guarantee that this investment will make profits; losses can be made. Source: Lipper to 31 07 10 NAV based gross income reinvested annualised and gross of annual management 31.07.10, based, reinvested, fees in US dollars. The performance is shown since inception of MSCI World Energy index at 30.12.94. Source: Bloomberg to 31.07.10 for WTI crude oil
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Dec-94 Jun-95 Dec-95 Jun-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10
Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future and there is no guarantee that this investment will make profits; losses can be made. Source: Bloomberg, July 2010, based on A Income Share.
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11.5 13.4 Net Energy investment (right axis) 11.0 11 0 10.5 10.0 9.5 Net Energy Capital Stock (left axis) 9.0 8.5 11.9 11 9 8.0 11.6 7.5 7.0 1908 8 1915 5 1929 9 1936 6 1943 3 1950 0 1957 7 1964 4 8 1978 1985 5 9 1999 2006 6 1901 1922 1971 1992
13.1
12.8
12.5
12.2
11.3
12 years
18 years
18 years
+20 years
1.5
1.0
0.5
Investment phase
0.0 00
Nov-73 Nov-75 Nov-77 Nov-79 Nov-81 Nov-83 Nov-85 Nov-87
Investment phase
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
We e pec this investment p ase to be s g ca y longer than the 1970s e expect s es e phase o significantly o ge a e 9 0s
Source: Datastream, January 2010
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Nov-09
2030
Independent E&P companies are trading below the long term marginal cost of extraction
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Investec Asset Management, March 2010
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6.0%
Free csh f low yield h 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4.0% 2.0% 0%
E E2010
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Investec Asset Management, March 2010
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E E2011
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
These production growth outlooks are backed by solid reserve growth and reserve backing
700
Oil an gas reserves (rebased to 100 2003) nd 0,
Ultra Petroleum
600
500 400 300 200 100 0
2 2003
Anadarko
Apache Chesapeake Quicksilver Range Resources
2 2004
2 2005
2 2006
2 2007
2 2008
2 2009
2 2010
2 2011
2 2004
2 2005
2 2006
2 2007
2 2008
2 2009
2 2010
2 2011
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Investec Asset Management, March 2010
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2 2012
2 2012
5.5 18 4.5 3.5 2.5 10 1.5 0.5 05 2010E 2010E 2011E 2011E 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009
14
Halliburton Weatherford
Schlumberger Average
Halliburton Weatherford
Schlumberger Average
This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Source: Investec Asset Management, March 2010
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GSF
Appendix
31.6%
20 0 -20 -40 Jul-05
16.8% -0.9%
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
5 years from 31/07/05 to 31/07/10 Past performance figures shown are not indicative of future performance. Source: Lipper to 31 07 10 NAV based (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charge) gross 31.07.10, charge), income reinvested, in US dollars. Performance would be lower had any initial charge been included and will vary between different share classes dependant upon their applicable charges.
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YTD $ Investec GSF Global Energy Fund A Inc MSCI World/Energy TR Relative R l ti performance f Fund v MSCI World Energy 2.6 % -6.5 -9.1
3.7
8.3
14.9
214.4
Past performance figures shown are not indicative of future performance. Source: Lipper to 31 07 10 NAV based (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charge) gross income 31.07.10, charge), reinvested, in US dollars. Performance would be lower had any initial charge been included and will vary between different share classes dependant upon their applicable charges.
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Past performance figures shown are not indicative of future performance. Source: Lipper to 31.07.10, NAV based (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charge), gross income reinvested, reinvested in US dollars. Performance would have been lower had any initial charge been included and will vary between different dollars share classes dependant upon their applicable charges. * Unweighted average of the offshore funds in Lipper Global Equity Sector Natural Resource.
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Biographies
Mark Lacey
Portfolio Manager and Sector Specialist Energy Specialist, 2 years with the firm 14 years experience
Jonathan Waghorn
Portfolio Manager and Sector Specialist Energy Specialist, 2 years with the firm 14 years experience
Mark joined Investec Asset Management in February 2008 as a portfolio manager and energy specialist in the global commodities and resources team. Mark was previously employed at Goldman Sachs where he was an Executive Director and joint head of the highly ranked energy research team. In 2007, Mark was the number one rated oil and gas analyst in the leading investment survey Thompson Extel Extel. Prior to Goldman Sachs Mark spent three years at JP Morgan as a European Sachs, oil and gas analyst. Mark was also a commodities portfolio manager at Credit Suisse Asset Management for six years. Mark graduated from Nottingham Trent University with a BA Honours degree in Business Studies.
Jonathan joined Investec Asset Management in February 2008 as a portfolio manager and energy specialist in the global commodities and resources team. Previously, Jonathan spent eight years at Goldman Sachs where he was an Executive Director and joint head of the highly ranked energy research team. Jonathan was rated a 5 star analyst by Starmine for his stock-picking and earnings estimates in the oil and gas sector Prior to working at Goldman Sachs Jonathan spent two years sector. working for Wood Mackenzie as a UK oil and gas analyst, which involved detailed economic modelling of oil and gas facilities and companies. Jonathan began his career as a drilling engineer for Shell International in the Netherlands, where he spent three years. Jonathan graduated from Bristol University in 1994 with an Honours degree in Physics and in 1995 was awarded an MSc in Semiconductor Physics from Bristol University.
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Important information
This document is not for general public distribution. If you are a private investor and receive it as part of a general circulation, please contact us at + 852 2861 6888. The value of this investment and any income generated from it will be affected by changes in interest rates general market conditions investment, it, rates, and other political, social and economic developments, as well as by specific matters relating to the assets in which it invests. Investors are not certain to make profits; losses may be made. All the information contained in this document is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. A full explanation of the characteristics of the investment is given in the prospectus Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not prospectus. be relied upon. Past performance figures shown are not indicative of future performance. Investment involves risks. Investors should read the Prospectus for details, including the risk factors. This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular stock The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time stock. time. THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY. IT IS NOT AN INVITATION TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT NOR DOES IT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER FOR SALE. THE FULL DOCUMENTATION THAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT, INCLUDING THE PROSPECTUS AND SIMPLIFIED PROSPECTUS OR OFFERING MEMORANDUM, WHICH SET OU U OUT FUND S C C RISKS, IS AVAILABLE FROM INVESTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT. SPECIFIC S S, S O S C SS G This document should not be distributed to private customers who are resident in countries where the Fund is not registered for sale or in any other circumstances where its distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. Please visit www.investecassetmanagement.com/registrations to check registrations by country. THIS INVESTMENT IS NOT FOR SALE TO US PERSONS. PERSONS Telephone calls may be recorded to confirm your instructions This document has not been reviewed by the SFC. Issuer: Investec Asset Management Asia Limited.
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Contact details
KK Cheung Director, Regional Business Development Tel: +852 2861 6881 Email: kk.cheung@investecmail.com Noel Mak Manager, Business Development Tel: +852 2861 6887 Email: noel.mak@investecmail.com Sandy Chan Senior Manager, Business Development Tel: + 852 2861 6885 Email: sandy.chan@investecmail.com
Investec Asset Management Asia Limited Suites 2604-06, Tower 2 The Gateway, Harbour City Tsimshatsui, Kowloon Hong Kong www.investecfunds.com.hk
Telephone calls may be recorded for training and quality assurance purposes. Issued by Investec Asset Management, August 2010
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