08 June 2012

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

08 June 2012

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
Over Valued ............................................................... 5
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks

Over Valued ................................................................. 5

Under Valued ................................................................................ 5

Beverages
Chemicals

Over Valued .......................................................................... 5

Over Valued .......................................................................... 5
Over Valued ................................................ 6
Over Valued ............................................... 6

Construction & Building Materials

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Under Valued .......................................................... 6

Under Valued .................................................................. 7

Engineering & Machinery

Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ..................................................... 7

Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ....................................................................... 7
General Retail
Under
Valued ................................................................................. 7
Health
Under Valued ...................................................... 8
Over Valued ........................................... 8
Information Technology & Hardware
Over Valued .............................................................................. 8
Insurance
Under Valued ................................................................. 8
Leisure & Hotels

Household Goods & Textiles

Life Assurance

Under Valued ....................................................................... 9

Over Valued ............................................................. 9

Media & Entertainment

Over Valued ................................................................................. 9
Mining
Under Valued ............................................................................ 10
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Fair Value ......................................... 10

Over Valued .............................................. 10
Under Valued ................................................. 10
Over Valued ....................................................... 11

Over Valued ............................................................... 12

Under Valued .................................................... 12

Telecommunication Services
Under Valued ............................................................................ 13
Transport
Under Valued ............................................................................... 13
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15

Page 2 of 15

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Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

08 June 2012

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Page 3 of 15

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Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

08 June 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Page 4 of 15

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Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence

Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.
UMEC O

Price 12M Lo
279.70 248.10
328.90 309.60
228.60 165.90
377.80 305.00
828.50 545.04
1015.00 869.50
1687.00 1305.00
547.50 243.50

12M Hi
333.00
659.00
239.50
413.50
859.00
1212.00
1780.00
576.25

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
183.50 157.00
324.80 268.60
59.50
47.00
14.50
6.80

12M Hi
245.00
425.40
72.75
19.71

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
192.85 138.85
535.00 463.50
28.00
21.84
224.40 173.40
1383.00 1169.50

12M Hi
265.55
629.10
50.81
415.50
1672.00

Page 5 of 15

Target
150
287
56
18

Beta
1.96
1.44
1.32
1.14

Target
637
1040
175
85
556

Beta
1.89
1.14
1.80
1.34
1.69

Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
358.70 343.67
1577.00 1112.00
2420.50 1979.00

12M Hi
454.00
1614.50
2660.00

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
672
1217
2577

Beta
0.45
0.53
0.98

Over Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS

LT Rating
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Beta
0.67
0.61
0.88
1.33
1.08
0.73
0.59
0.78

Under Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Target
576
593
243
387
737
913
1214
448

Over Valued

Automobiles & Parts

Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

08 June 2012

Price
2316.00
207.00
2304.00
1380.00
189.90
166.50

12M Lo
1597.00
107.50
1523.00
1025.00
148.00
109.00

12M Hi
2316.00
211.80
2408.00
1590.00
253.00
186.50

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rating
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

Target
2137
243
1846
1409
155
172

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.04
1.04
1.44
1.19
1.32
0.99

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials

Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
284.20
127.80
744.00
1251.00
422.50
270.90
49.63
191.00
602.00
385.00
1230.00
54.50
90.00
648.50
586.50
113.60
86.85
44.54
954.00
2228.00

12M Lo
214.60
67.50
540.50
1025.00
326.50
253.50
35.50
180.00
383.75
239.25
1095.00
38.00
83.00
510.00
374.00
103.50
76.95
28.71
715.00
1404.00

12M Hi
323.80
151.50
859.50
1414.00
518.50
387.00
88.25
247.50
653.00
528.00
1489.00
76.75
115.25
725.00
706.50
135.30
145.20
52.75
1125.00
2558.00

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1034.00 643.50
576.00 434.30
137.25
86.75
217.20 180.90
199.20 128.50
1201.00 714.00
1483.00 800.00
1586.00 1039.00
0.09
0.08
153.25 120.50
212.00 208.50

12M Hi
1095.00
701.50
149.50
333.90
222.00
1285.00
1886.00
1902.00
0.24
206.75
295.00

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Page 6 of 15

Beta
0.81
1.45
1.04
0.67
1.11
1.11
0.78
0.60
1.05
1.32
1.01
1.09
1.33
0.87
1.12
0.99
1.61
1.53
1.88
1.43

Target
597
701
172
394
104
832
1681
1332
0
333
199

Beta
0.74
1.18
1.31
1.39
2.13
0.97
1.25
1.47
0.84
1.63
1.11

Under Valued

Engineering & Machinery

Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
C OOKSON GROUP
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

Target
-10
110
264
1466
70
-150
35
358
-15
300
1317
106
57
127
388
36
121
3
447
678

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

08 June 2012

Price
78.00
369.20
284.00
645.50
361.00
397.20
325.00
883.00
7.37
274.40
2029.00
198.00
168.50
2072.00
645.50
1464.00

12M Lo
62.50
225.60
252.50
395.80
280.00
306.30
235.00
636.50
7.12
224.00
1501.00
135.60
150.00
1649.00
488.00
1375.00

12M Hi
115.50
437.10
358.00
747.50
483.70
429.60
376.75
1119.00
10.63
360.00
2260.00
213.00
241.00
2334.00
690.00
2236.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy

Target
121
471
402
691
353
284
448
1074
5
421
1600
184
130
1906
553
1681

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.27
1.61
0.94
2.27
1.44
0.75
1.35
1.40
0.87
1.79
0.99
1.72
1.04
0.87
1.47
1.38

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Food & Drug Stores

Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
501.00 445.00
279.50 267.30
289.10 263.50
303.50 297.05
19.13
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
334.20
411.50
62.50

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Price 12M Lo
1175.00 977.00
798.50 588.50
321.10 290.40
315.80 232.00
96.25
32.90
639.50 544.50
2042.00 1892.00

12M Hi
1242.00
841.00
393.90
332.20
307.50
720.50
2189.00

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
23.00
16.00
229.10 222.40
1392.00 1092.00
682.00 375.00
13.05
9.36
3.60
2.20
21.00
20.75
245.60 239.50
10.25
5.20
672.00 570.00
54.10
46.76
275.40 217.00
340.50 301.80
45.00
26.00
216.00 127.30
3022.00 2153.00
855.50 633.00
38.75
21.50

12M Hi
24.00
291.00
1600.00
733.00
19.64
8.70
103.00
405.90
23.75
1030.00
143.40
313.80
389.50
51.00
429.10
3060.00
928.50
67.88

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 7 of 15

LT Rating
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell

Target
1826
1915
1150
499
50
966
778

Beta
0.59
0.59
0.88
0.33
1.49
0.63
0.58

LT Rating
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
32
282
595
219
18
7
103
460
236
1328
294
304
454
12
361
2691
524
30

Beta
0.73
0.48
1.36
0.97
1.50
0.95
1.05
0.69
0.91
0.52
1.27
0.98
0.76
1.06
0.46
0.74
0.54
1.31

Under Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Beta
0.49
0.44
0.65
0.73
0.82

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS
JD SPORTS FASHION
KESA ELEC TRIC ALS
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Target
319
335
509
390
22

Over Valued

Food Producers & Processors

Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

08 June 2012

Price 12M Lo
597.50 498.00
47.50
35.25
600.50 521.00

12M Hi
668.00
57.75
686.50

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rating
Sell
Buy
Buy

Target
411
54
733

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.45
0.64
0.37

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Household Goods & Textiles

Stock
HARVARD INTL.
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
45.00
21.75
565.00 405.00
279.00 233.25
74.00
73.25

12M Hi
45.13
580.00
306.00
145.00

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
510.50 464.00
208.00 154.10
25.50
14.50
509.00 296.90
57.50
41.00
160.90 105.80
193.00
96.00

12M Hi
645.00
326.10
35.00
717.00
92.00
174.00
240.00

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1080.00 787.00
325.00 270.60
136.50 109.60
410.80 336.00
406.40 340.50
680.50 576.00
101.10
97.65
369.00 285.00

12M Hi
1748.00
420.80
151.80
449.00
422.20
764.50
137.90
380.00

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 8 of 15

Target
353
431
34
220
234
552
42

Beta
0.75
1.19
0.69
1.06
1.14
0.99
1.01

LT Rating
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-1546
-4442
1832
67
2187
3968
2436
7937

Beta
0.58
0.49
0.52
0.33
0.49
0.33
0.46
0.49

Under Valued

Leisure & Hotels

Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Beta
0.46
0.38
0.94
0.72

Over Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

Target
29
419
381
135

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware

Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
PSION
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

08 June 2012

Price 12M Lo
2109.00 1742.00
61.00
26.50
167.50 136.70
720.00 621.00
488.30 410.00
170.10 114.00
1507.00 955.00
466.30 371.20
222.00 215.60
129.90 100.60
8.20
7.70
118.20 109.50
287.30 254.90
395.60 371.30
1877.00 1409.00
272.30 183.30
97.25
84.60

12M Hi
2465.00
76.70
231.80
752.00
527.50
181.40
1532.00
517.00
327.70
174.00
14.80
153.70
309.70
449.90
2006.00
281.70
106.80

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy

Target
2967
16
646
542
523
158
1648
545
313
113
-181
173
301
552
1510
258
144

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.01
1.67
0.97
0.42
0.87
1.00
1.23
1.37
1.05
1.32
1.31
0.93
0.84
0.74
1.00
0.92
1.21

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
272.50 255.30
165.00 155.25
115.70
89.80
146.90
98.47
696.50 509.00
331.10 294.00

12M Hi
446.30
255.00
135.00
165.31
797.50
376.00

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
164.20 116.17
112.00
91.25
681.00 618.50
30.50
28.50
385.00 343.40
775.00 522.50
358.70 313.90
182.60 157.70
73.70
51.65
6.10
4.11
1148.00 1038.00
37.00
36.50
347.50 198.88
29.10
26.21
96.50
76.25
70.00
67.50
25.50
25.50
559.00 416.00
87.25
78.50
766.50 578.00
1.48
1.26

12M Hi
187.40
133.00
850.00
55.25
473.70
828.00
451.00
248.60
89.90
7.90
1255.00
67.00
377.50
36.68
137.00
102.25
54.25
641.50
124.00
880.00
11.00

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 9 of 15

Beta
1.30
0.63
1.65
1.62
1.71
0.83

LT Rating
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy

Target
136
129
598
-61
452
552
289
168
88
62
1474
82
151
8
24
217
347
1592
107
810
46

Beta
1.31
0.46
0.57
0.98
1.10
0.99
1.56
1.43
1.55
1.37
0.65
0.85
0.29
0.54
0.82
1.34
1.43
1.31
0.84
1.30
1.13

Over Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
419
182
89
158
359
138

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment

Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
YELL GROUP

08 June 2012

Price
2133.00
252.70
1084.00
1820.00
792.00
5645.00
3015.00
9.83
985.50
966.80

12M Lo
1955.50
233.30
900.50
1667.00
699.00
4580.00
2712.50
8.75
883.50
764.00

12M Hi
3181.00
340.00
1491.00
2521.50
1544.00
7565.00
4595.00
47.00
2095.00
1417.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
2781
265
932
3471
624
3144
2777
-50
3448
847

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.75
1.03
1.39
1.41
1.97
0.32
1.44
0.93
2.13
1.81

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Oil & Gas

Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
MELROSE RESOURC ES
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL A(LON)
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

08 June 2012

Price
1278.00
413.60
294.80
8.57
809.50
96.50
95.50
359.70
2048.00
2125.50
290.30
1468.00
695.50

12M Lo
1144.00
363.20
275.90
8.31
530.00
95.50
93.00
310.00
1883.50
1890.50
254.90
945.50
469.90

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
480.13
12.75
968.00
293.30
242.50
482.90
2402.00
2489.00
389.00
1601.00
798.00

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rating
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
110.00 107.06
330.50 285.00
3456.00 3100.00

12M Hi
139.21
380.00
3660.00

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
2.70
2643.00
385.90
476.00
1430.00
2.76
6.13
1851.00
68.75
21.88

12M Lo
2.63
2543.50
236.80
392.50
1205.00
2.70
6.00
1784.00
31.00
18.75

12M Hi
5.35
3174.50
387.70
524.84
1497.00
7.20
9.50
2300.00
87.00
49.00

ST Rating
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 10 of 15

Target
107
340
3345

Beta
0.88
0.74
0.35

Price 12M Lo
19.13
19.13
114.75
57.75
1641.00 1298.00
362.90 324.70
253.25 225.00
20.75
16.75
106.50
58.95
447.10 242.90
185.00 154.75
73.00
41.50
1495.00 1441.00
259.20 231.70

LT Rating
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy

Target
16
7997
200
1521
1341
16
0
1539
94
56

Beta
1.03
0.46
0.69
0.28
0.49
0.69
0.95
0.65
0.70
0.84

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services

Stock
TIMEWEAVE
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
LOGIC A
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

LT Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

Beta
0.75
1.06
1.39
0.91
1.32
1.44
1.20
1.39
0.91
0.91
0.49
1.07
1.35

Fair Value

Personal Care & Household Products

Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

Target
1127
2232
115
15
424
206
256
284
6092
6076
252
687
725

12M Hi
27.00
129.75
1799.00
490.00
503.50
23.00
135.60
476.70
262.75
156.63
2109.00
312.40

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Target
43
62
941
1128
285
19
134
468
480
-101
1794
312

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.74
0.83
1.41
1.12
1.16
0.89
1.17
0.74
0.87
0.52
0.81
0.71

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance

Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Page 11 of 15

08 June 2012

Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
247.80 167.80
283.80
142.50 113.70
177.00
9600.00 8800.00 10950.00
260.00 240.00
350.00
141.00 115.63
160.00
713.00 590.00
812.00
72.75
56.05
79.05
1.35
1.09
4.00
97.70
92.85
163.70
339.90 311.60
498.80
256.60 197.90
338.40
351.50 310.40
522.00
972.00 756.50 1093.00
80.25
71.70
259.60
1250.00 977.00 1351.00
1254.00 1166.00 1665.00
1002.00 968.00 1393.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
101
88
11066
177
127
212
88
87
48
166
144
14
640
113
1081
964
964

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.10
0.76
0.83
0.96
0.67
0.85
0.85
0.70
1.46
1.08
1.61
1.53
1.15
1.32
0.76
1.33
1.32

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
MOUC HEL GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
WSP GROUP

Price 12M Lo
194.00 166.25
2198.00 1522.00
984.00 740.50
242.20
99.40
871.00 570.50
324.00 285.00
1033.00 676.50
236.00 192.25
631.50 602.00
29.50
23.75
638.00 512.50
476.40 402.70
1018.00 730.00
845.00 727.00
453.90 284.00
206.80 182.20
442.70 296.30
276.00 219.90
75.05
58.85
143.10 138.80
301.20 270.10
2682.00 1744.00
27.25
25.25
28.00
27.75
594.50 445.50
372.10 323.00
279.00 208.00
5.95
4.75
136.00 124.75
703.50 465.00
165.70 144.50
91.80
64.00
72.95
58.20
413.10 299.80
318.00 314.00
190.00 158.25
388.00 300.50
197.00 156.60
535.00 458.00
80.85
79.10
25.50
18.50
91.00
38.50
41.00
36.25
251.00 191.00
45.50
44.00
260.00 160.00

12M Hi
329.75
2316.00
1171.00
271.10
871.00
392.50
1063.00
318.50
767.00
39.75
671.00
568.00
1024.00
868.00
460.50
290.00
484.50
292.10
109.20
531.50
341.25
2682.00
36.00
45.50
652.00
552.50
296.70
75.25
166.50
703.50
284.00
117.50
97.25
438.00
410.00
326.00
393.20
253.00
584.00
130.90
32.75
92.63
52.50
269.00
675.00
334.50

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 12 of 15

LT Rating
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Target
302
1209
1034
92
547
681
749
444
531
77
607
881
837
816
382
291
337
264
115
388
711
1362
88
55
1181
308
318
-111
230
599
269
102
23
551
436
314
347
233
551
129
3
-9
50
475
-4011
476

Beta
0.92
1.13
1.05
1.53
0.47
0.71
0.54
0.31
0.47
0.78
0.70
1.01
#NA
0.20
1.00
1.06
1.10
0.57
1.06
0.89
1.28
0.82
1.11
0.75
1.43
1.39
0.59
0.90
0.41
0.71
1.28
1.43
1.32
0.87
0.83
1.27
0.78
1.56
0.58
1.48
1.29
0.53
0.92
0.87
0.78
0.90

Under Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

08 June 2012

Price 12M Lo
205.40 161.00
28.89
27.28
462.00 389.30
69.25
65.60
778.50 550.00
168.95 155.05

12M Hi
232.10
45.16
603.00
84.00
802.00
182.70

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating LT Rating
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
256
128
396
85
517
175

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.90
0.69
0.51
1.26
0.02
0.57

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Price 12M Lo
201.10 156.00
310.00 282.00
1291.00 1015.00
493.80 302.54
212.80 190.00
561.50 440.50
1151.00 1086.00
183.80 183.10
172.00 168.00
236.90 219.96
40.25
37.75

12M Hi
222.40
476.50
1390.00
534.00
370.20
615.00
1598.00
262.40
333.90
287.40
123.25

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 13 of 15

LT Rating
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Target
182
576
1718
469
331
342
1610
209
316
183
109

Beta
1.35
0.98
0.80
0.79
1.02
0.79
0.91
1.32
1.38
0.89
0.90

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

08 June 2012

Price 12M Lo
308.40 278.80
653.50 569.00
732.00 623.50
1735.00 1375.00
668.50 560.00

12M Hi
330.30
684.50
751.00
1761.00
678.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rating
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Target
355
826
682
1580
640

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.48
0.54
0.55
0.41
0.52

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

08 June 2012

DISCLAIMER
Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (Intellisys) is the trading name of
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of
quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to
present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial
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be accurate but Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the
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Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice specific to
their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial Services and
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Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this report. No
representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness
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Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisys report and/or the
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No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
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Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person
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Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

08 June 2012

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get back
the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange
rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance.

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Intelligent Analysis Limited