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()

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;


(
);


.

(Z*(x0)).


().


(Z(:)), S;
xS
Z(x),

();
Z(x) ;
,
Z(xi): z(xi)=zi, i=1,,N.

Z * ( x0 ) F (Z ( x1 ), Z ( x2 ),..., Z ( xN ), (...))
:

Var[ Z * ( x0 ) Z ( x0 )] min

E{ Z * ( x ) Z( x )} 0
(...) - ,
Z(x)


()

.


. ,
h.

,
.

C(x,h)

C(x,h)= E{(Z(x)-m(x))(Z(x+h)-m(x+h))}
, :

(x, h) 12 Var Z (x) Z (x h)

E Z ( x) Z ( x h )


BLUE:
Best

Linear

Unbiased

Estimator

VarZ * ( x ) Z ( x )
min
n

Z ( x0 ) j Z ( x j )
*

j 1

EZ ( x ) Z * ( x ) 0


:
1. E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)] = 0, x
2. h:
2(h) = Var[Z(x+h)-Z(x)],

n ( x )
n( x )

EZ * ( x ) Z ( x ) E i ( x )Z ( x i ) Z ( x ) i ( x ) 1 m 0
i 1
i 1

n( x )

i 1

( x ) 1

j ij i 0
j 1

n( x)

j 1

j 1

n( x)

i=1,,n(x)

OK i i 0
2


;

;
;
;

Var{Z *} Var{Z } OK

OK Var{Z }
2

3h 1 h 3
, if h R
c0 c
2R 2 R
( h)

c c
, if h R
0

()

2 :


;

.

.

N (h )
1
2
Z (x i ) Z (x i h)
(h)

2 N (h) i 1
N(h) h.

bw


()
(bw)


h
h

4h

B
,

( h ) ( hBh T )

0 cos sin
1
h 0 amin
h

amax sin cos

sill

nugget

Range 1
(Nugget)
(Sill)

Range 2


(Range)

n( x)

Z ( x0 ) j Z ( x j )
*

j 1

n ( x )
j ij i 0
j 1

n( x)

j 1

j 1

i=1,,n(x)

OK i i 0
2



;
(
);

(-);
( );

(
);
.

m( x ) a 0 ( x ) a1 ( x ) y( x )

Z*( x)

n( x )

( x )Z ( x
j 1


n( x )
i ( x )C R ( x j x i ) 0 ( x ) 1 ( x ) y( x j ) C R ( x j x ) j 1, , n( x )
i 1
n( x )

i ( x ) 1

i 1

n( x )

i ( x ) y( x i ) y( x )

i 1

1,400,000 2, 400 .

(C) .

= 0.874, RMSE = 3.13

= 0.984, RMSE = 1.19


90Sr
286

137Cs
680

1: 137Cs
( )

137Cs
( )


( )

137Cs 10Ci/km2

2: 90Sr

K n ( x )

*
Z
( x)
K

1 i 1

i Z ( xi )

2 U(x) V(x)

U * ( x)

nU ( x )

nV ( x )

a ( x)U ( x ) b ( x)V ( x )
i 1

j 1

-
nV ( x )
nU ( x )
ai U ( xi , x j ) bi VU ( xi , x j ) U U ( x, x j ),
i 1
nUi ( 1x )
nV ( x )

ai UV ( xi , x j ) bi V ( xi , x j ) V UV ( x, x j ),

i 1
i 1

nU ( x )

ai 1

i 1
n
( x)

bi 0

i 1

2
OCK

( x)

nU ( x )

a ( x)
i 1

UU

( xi , x)

i 1

j 1,...,nU ( x)
j 1,...,nV ( x)

nV ( x )

b ( x)

UV

( xi , x) U ( x)

90Sr

90Sr
( -)


(- )

3:

(
)
:
1, if z(x j ) zk
I ( x j ; zk )
, k 1,...,K
0 otherwise
0
1
0
1
0

I0

zk
Z

I * ( x; zk | ( n )) F * ( x; zk | ( n )) i I ( x; zk )


10 Ci/km2

20 Ci/km2

629

F ( x1 , x2 , , x N ; z1 , z2 , , z N | ( n ))

PrZ ( x1 ) z1 , , Z ( x N ) z N | ( n )

F ( x1 , , x N ; z1 , , z N | ( n ))
F ( x N ; z N | ( n N 1 )) F ( x N 1 ; z N 1 | ( n N 2 )) F ( x1 ; z1 | ( n ))


24


14.9
50.2

24
14.9
50.2

24

35.2

?
14.9
50.2

21.1

39.1

30.1

: 5.32 110 1.46


2158 77 1.33

+ :

3D

90Sr: 5
1, 5, 15 cm

90Sr: 20
10, 15, 30 m


( 10 )

0.5 i/km2 :

0.2 Ci/km2 : 1-2 cm





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