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The Philippine population is not exploding

By Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas Philippine Daily Inquirer First Posted 21:56:00 09/24/2010 Filed Under: Media, Population I AM glad that Dr. Jose S. Sandejas, former commissioner of the Population Commission, has a Ph.D. in engineering and is steeped in mathematical and statistical sciences. Unlike some of our ignorant journalists or commentators who talk about an exploding population, he cannot be fooled by the statistical abracadabra being performed by some people in the National Statistical Coordination Board. He recently wrote a letter to the chairman of the NSCB expressing his surprise that in projecting population data from the 2000 census, some of the statisticians in the NSCB single-handedly added 146,582 babies to the actual number recorded in the 2000 census. The flimsy excuse given in a technical note, hidden in very small letters, is that they assumed that the Philippine population pyramid should continue to be pyramid-like (instead of an inverted pyramid). In fact, if they had not added the 146,582 babies to the data for the year 2000, the Philippine demographic data would no longer conform with the classic form of a pyramid. It would start to show the makings of an inverted pyramid which now characterizes aging countries like Japan, Spain, Italy and South Korea. As a long-term student of Philippine demography, I had always suspected some doctoring of population data by birth-control pushers. When the United Nations Population Commission was already reporting Philippine population growth rate of anywhere from 1.6 to 1.8 percent annually, the neo-Malthusians continued to report a growth rate of 2.3 percent. Only when some of us insisted that the growth rate had already decelerated did government demographers start to report a rate of less than 2.0 percent. That is why Dr. Sandejas has all the right to question the scientific validity of the unwarranted adding of 9 percent more babies to the actual data that resulted from the 2000 census. The net effect of the arbitrary addition is to inflate the population growth rate (PGR) and the total fertility rate (TFR) by some 9 percent more than the actual figure measured in the 2000 census. The TFR for the year 2000 should have been reported as only 2.7 babies per woman, already dangerously close to zero population growth rate. The inflated figures that some gullible journalists unwittingly accept can mislead economic and social planners, including legislators who are pushing the Reproductive Health Bill and other population-control measures based on wrong and even deliberately doctored data. Contrary to the view that the Philippine population is still exploding (seemingly supported by the common sight of overcrowded slum districts in the Metro Manila area), the Philippines National Statistical Coordination Board in its website, quotes the Philippine Population Growth Rate (PPGR) for the year 2010 to be at the slowing rate of only 1.82 percent per annum (vs. the 2.36 percent during the census year 2000, which figure is often still used to justify the view that PGR is exploding).

Equally worrisome is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children per woman, quoted by the NSCB for the year 2010 at 2.96 births per woman. This represents a significant decline from the NSCB figure of 3.41 births per woman. This big drop in the TFR is quite palpable. All around us, we see young couples having fewer children than their elders (even in informal dweller areas), with many young couples saying that they plan on having no more than two or three children (or much less than their elders who had four to six children per family). In fact, in 1975 the TFR was six children per fertile woman. This decline in fertility has happened without aggressive population control campaigns. The main factors for the decrease in fertility are urbanization, later marriages, and increased education of women. Dr. Sandejas concludes that the Philippines does not need a policy on family planning which will tend to slow down PGR even more rapidly. The Philippines can reap a demographic dividend if we can slow down or reverse the declining PGR or TFR. The governments role is to assist parents to educate and nurture the youth leaders so that they can be more productive citizens in the future. I hope that some of our media people will stop their hysterical cries about the Philippine population bomb. They have unfortunately been misled by the doctors of statistics. Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas is senior vice president of the University of Asia and the Pacific. His email address is bvillegas@uap.edu.ph.
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Last update: September 30 2010, 10:42 PM INQUIRER OPINION - COLUMNS All population statistics wrong, except mine Rigoberto D. Tiglao Philippine Daily Inquirer September 29, 2010 THAT WAS what the economist Dr. Bernardo Villegas was saying in effect when he claimed, in an article in the Manila Bulletin last Sept. 19, that Philippine population statistics are being doctored. He had it reprinted in this newspaper a few days later with the headline, The Philippine population is not exploding. His article is a perfect illustration of dogmatism: If the facts dont fit my theory, theyre wrong facts.

It is sad to read a renowned Filipino academic like Villegas stooping to vulgar name-calling by branding those arguing that we have an unbridled population growth as ignorant, hysterical and gullible. I hope he doesnt use these terms to describe President Aquino, who very boldly has declared his support for an aggressive population-control program. That we have a population problem is hardly based on ignorance. There is an unmistakable consensus among economists that a major factor why our nation remains poor is its uncontrolled population growth. This was a major point of the World Banks report on our country released last month, and reported in this column last week. It was made by a team of 24 economists who came from nearly all continents. A study released last year by the Asian Development Bank, Poverty in the Philippines: Causes, Constraints, and Opportunities, had the same conclusion: Population growth remains rapid by Asian standards and has decreased slowly compared to other countries over the last three decades. It advised: Population management will be critical for an effective poverty-reduction strategy. I suggest that Villegas read such studies as Mapa, D. and A. Balisacan (2004), Quantifying the Impact of Population on Economic Growth and Poverty: The Philippines in an East Asian Context, and Orbeta, A. (2005), Poverty, Vulnerability and Family Size: Evidence from the Philippines. The 2004 study dramatically demonstrated that if the Philippines had a lower population growth rate at the level of Thailands from 1975-2000, the average income per capita in 2000 would have been $4,839, or four times more than the actual $1,030, and 3.6 million Filipinos would have been brought out of

poverty. Those are millions of souls who wouldnt have lived a life of hell on earth if only we had a population management program. What does Villegas present to counter these conclusions? Well, his suspicions. I had always suspected some doctoring of population data by birth-control pushers, he wrote. Worse though, he presents arguments based on such an appalling misreading of data, that I respectfully but strongly suggestand this is no sarcasm, but Christian advicethat he go to an ophthalmologist. He wrote: The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) quotes the Philippine Population Growth Rate for the year 2010 to be at the low level of only 1.82 percent per annum (vs. the 2.36 percent during the census year 2000, which figure is often still used to justify the view that PGR is exploding.). That is totally false. As Socio-economic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga quite patiently explained to him, the 1.82 percent rate is a projection, not an actual figure, and not for 2010. It is the projected average annual rate for the coming years 2010-2015, which Paderanga said should be interpreted with caution as these are based on debatable assumptions. On the other hand, the 2.36 percent figure is not for the year 2000, but the actual annual growth rate between 1995 and 2000, which of course can only lead to the conclusion of an impoverishing population growth. It is shocking that Villegas is totally oblivious of the fact that even a 1.8 percent projected population growth rate for the Philippines for 2010-2015 is really high. The average for East Asia is 0.8 percent. It gets worse. To claim that Philippine

population statistics have been maliciously altered (doctored, as he says), Villegas invokes the letter of Dr. Jose Sandejas to the NSCB, who claimed that its 2000 population figure of 76,650,659 was padded by 146,582. Theres no typo there, and Villegas amazingly does not see the arithmetic that the 146,482 addition is an insignificant 0.19 percent of the population figure he questions. (He wrote that 146,482 is 9 percent of 76.6 million!) Furthermore, Paderanga had also explained to Villegas that 146,482 was added to the July 2000 population figure as a projection from the actual May 2000 census survey. This figure was arrived at by an inter-agency committee of the countrys best demographers and statisticiansafter six years of study. For that 146,482 projection, Villegas condemned our countrys official statistical institution which, as he knows, should be without the shadow of a doubt, because it reports the only data economists rely on for any study on the Philippines, as staffed by doctors of statistics producing statistical abacadabra. It is intellectually dishonest for Villegas to portray Sandejas as an unbiased scholar questioning the NSCBs data. Sandejas is, like Villegas, a religious crusader against contraceptive use, which he calls the work of the devil. Former Health Secretary Alberto Romualdez in his newspaper column described him as the Opus Dei functionary who was instrumental in neutralizing the once progressive Population Commission of the Philippines (in the early 1980s) from continuing its aggressive family planning program. The Catholic organization Opus Dei, whose Philippine branch Opus Dei numerary, Villegas, was one of the founders of, has been

at the vanguard of the Churchs efforts to block an authentic family planning program in our country. Sandejas is the Opus Dei supernumerary at the forefront of the campaign. Next week: Opus Dei versus the Work of the devil E-mail: tiglao.inquirer@gmail.com 2010 www.inquirer.net all rights reserved
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CBCP makes another push for natural family planning

Cebu Daily News First Posted 06:52:00 07/25/2010 Filed Under: Religion & Belief, Education, Family planning
TWO days before the 15th Congress opens, the Catholic Church hierarchy flexed its political influence and asked President Aquino to reject a revived reproductive health bill and to put a stop to sex education in schools beginning fifth grade. In a lengthy pastoral statement issued yesterday, the Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines reminded Aquino of his mother, the late president Corazon Aquino's moral legacy as it called on him to reject any proposal promoting artificial contraceptives. The Catholic Church advocates "natural family planning programs." Through its president, Bishop Nereo Odchimar of Tandag, Surigao del Sur, the CBCP invoked "moral and religious truths" and served notice that it would oppose the proposed "Reproductive Health and Population and Development Act of 2010" that was re-filed by Rep. Edcel Lagman as House Bill 96. The Catholic Church succeeded during the last Congress to block the passage of the bill, which proponents say would strengthen programs to promote maternal and child health and responsible parenthood. "With the utmost concern and urgency we express our strong objection to the fundamental aspects of House Bill 96. The basis of our moral objection is once again the central religious truth of the divine origin and divine image of the human person, of one's being and life," said the CBCP. "Science has proven that some contraceptives render the mother's womb inhospitable, thereby causing abortion," it added.

The CBCP, however, supported House Bill 13 or the proposed "Act Providing for the Safety and Protection of the Unborn Child and for Other Purposes" filed by Rep. Roilo Golez, saying the bill recognized that the government should protect the life of the unborn from conception, "and conception is the moment of fertilization." "If its ambiguous stand on contraceptives that are not abortifacients is corrected in favor of moral truth, a house bill such as the new House Bill No. 13 is laudable," said the CBCP. "The constitutional protection of the unborn child from the first instant of conception is a legacy given to us some 20 years ago during the presidency of President Corazon Aquino. In spite of all the foreseeable opposition of politicians and powerful lobby groups, we pray that (her) moral legacy could be finally and fully realized during the term of her son, President Benigno Simeon Aquino III," it said. /INQUIRER http://globalnation.inquirer.net/cebudailynews/opinion/view/20081002-164186/Why-blame-familysizeColor of Water

Why blame family size?

By Malou Guanzon-Apalisok Cebu Daily News First Posted 13:07:00 10/02/2008 Filed Under: Population, Poverty

In pushing for a national population policy, advocates of the Reproductive Health Bill emphasize the relationship between family size and poverty. They point to statistics such as three babies born every minute, 225 Filipino children dying daily from poverty-related diseases and 10 mothers who succumb every day due to pregnancy and childbirth-related complications. They point out that the situation highlights the relevance of family planning because a high population growth rate takes a toll on resources and hinders human development. The views derive from the United Nations Development Programme assumptions that see a correlation between human development index and annual population growth/total fertility rates. Based on UNDP theory, the Philippines cannot hope to achieve high human development if it fails to check population growth currently pegged at 2.3 percent. There is a tendency to compare us with countries in Europe, which, although Catholic, have embraced artificial family planning methods including abortion. I assume the stats to be fairly accurate and realistic but according to the World Health Organization, 99 percent of maternal and infant deaths due to childbirth complications are preventable. In other words,

the deaths could have been avoided had there been adequate medical intervention by government health workers. It would be kind for legislators to tell the public how much pork barrel was spent in the construction of new hospitals or the upgrading of old ones because that would have gone a long way in reducing infants and maternal death toll. Still, we need only to look around us. Flyovers, reclamation projects, highways, bridges, government offices dot cities and the countryside. The construction of this type of infrastructure will most likely continue next year judging from the breakdown of the proposed P1.415-trillion national budget for 2009. A huge P120 billion has been allocated for the Department of Public Works and Highways but the Department of Health gets only a measly P27.8 billion. No wonder fewer hospitals are being built. In fact, while private hospitals boast of modern medical equipment, public institutions are poorly staffed and ill-equipped. Instead of addressing the pressing needs of the public health system, RH bill proponents would rather commit government funds in family planning commodities. Under HB 5043, artificial family planning methods like tubal ligation, vasectomy, and intrauterine device insertion will be made available in all public hospitals. Government will purchase hormonal contraceptives, condoms, intrauterine devices, and other "essential medicines" to implement the state policy. Artificial family planning services will become the focus of public health service to the detriment of the countrys primary health care system. The poverty that stalks our land is not because of overpopulation but misuse of public funds and unchecked government corruption. A classic example is the controversial purchase of decorative lamps used during the 12th ASEAN Summit. The project was clearly overpriced and unjustified but government went ahead with the purchase. Now some sectors want the lampposts taken down because theyre an eyesore. I say dont, so voters will be reminded about the shameless waste and the people responsible for it. The claim that big families take a toll on resources is a fallacy because if people are educated and have equal access to jobs and business opportunities, they become engines of economic growth. Human resource has made China (population: over 1.3 billion) and India (1.1 billion) major players in the elite nations of the world. On the other hand, Italy (0.2 percent population growth), Spain, Poland, Austria and Ireland (0.3 percent) France (0.7 percent), face staggering problems brought about by a graying population. Population growth is a multiplier of wealth; it is a driver of economic growth and creates opportunities for entrepreneurs, states Steven Mosher, president of the Population Research Institute and long-time

critic of United Nations policies that attack population growth in poor countries. Mosher stressed one need only to cast a glance at dying Europe or moribund Japan, to be proven wrong. http://globalnation.inquirer.net/cebudailynews/opinion/view/20101004-295897/The-culture-ofcontraception

Color of Water

The culture of contraception

By Malou Guanzon-Apalisok Cebu Daily News First Posted 10:03:00 10/04/2010 Filed Under: Family planning
Contraceptives or contraception has become a viral topic on the Internet especially on social networking sites after President Benigno Aquino III got in a row with the Philippines Catholic bishops over the Reproductive Health bill. One Facebook comment went this way: If you have no sex life, you have no right to tell us what to do behind closed doors. This was in reference to the stance of the bishops who strongly oppose the use of condoms and contraceptive pills, services that will be freely distributed if the RH bill is adopted. P-Noy has made it known that he will leave it to couples to decide which family planning method to use but according to him, the State is duty bound to inform Filipino couples what are their choices. A flurry of comments was immediately posted on FB, some short, others lengthy. I was struck by the views of netizens because it seemed to me that artificial family planning methods were not related to spacing births but rather to the sexual act. Artificial family planning as part of government policy failed in the past because in particular contraception evoked sin and did not sit well with the Catholic majority. In 1982, despite pressures exerted by global funding institutions on the Marcos government to adopt a more aggressive tack to curb population growth, the policy didnt come to pass. There was overwhelming rejection of contraceptive method as a policy, and it stemmed from the fact that people believed contraception is opposed to their faith and values. The RH bill and the advocacy for contraception seem to have evolved into a lifestyle issue, one wherein individual freedom or choices take precedence over other considerations. Since individualism has become the major plank of the Aquino population policy, people who find a freer lifestyle attractive will certainly have no quarrel with the RH agenda. There is a need to enlighten our people on the RH bill. Id like to begin by sharing an excerpt of a talk delivered by Steve Patton, director of the Diocesan Center for Family Life in St. Augustine, Florida five years ago. Although he was talking to an American audience, his Why Contraception Matters: How It Keeps Us from Love and Life keenly describes the way society relates to the present issues.

It used to be, before the contraceptive revolution, that there was a pretty clear and firm connection between sex and marriage. Married people had sex, unmarried people didnt, or if they did, they more or less knew that they werent supposed to. Most everybody knew this. But over the course of the 20th century, as contraception became more socially accepted, more available, and more effective, all that began to change. By the time the sixties 60s rolled around it was becoming clear, to married and unmarried people alike, that you didnt have to be married to have sex. Contraceptive practice had made sex into a recreational activity that everyone has a right to. What did this mean for the unmarried? Well, you probably heard the old saying, Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? Widespread acceptance and availability of contraception has led to widespread fornication. Pre-marital sex is now not only socially acceptable, but socially respectable. Its no different among Catholics. About 90 percent of engaged couples in the U.S. who come to the Catholic Church for marriage are already sexually active 90 percent. Yes, people do still get married, but in fewer numbers. Why? Well, one of the reasons a man and woman used to get married was to start having sex, and contraception basically removed that as a reason. What did the contraceptive revolution do to married people? There are three ways that it led to an increase in divorce rates. First, if sex is no longer a reason to get married, then its also no longer a reason to stay married. Anyone can have it. Its pretty much a commodity. But once sex is removed from the portrait of all those things that make marriage unique and valuable, then a married couple at risk will have one less reason to try to make it work. Second, widespread contraceptive practice in many cases removed another reason that has traditionally held together married couples, namely, children. There is something to be said for a couple trying to make their marriage work for the sake of the children. But what happens when there are no children? More contraception has led to fewer children, and in many cases to no children at all. Divorces naturally followed. Third, widespread use of contraception by married couples also led to an increase of adultery. Once you take away one of the greatest fears of extra-marital sex which is pregnancy youre going to see an increase of that activity. And when there is an increase in adultery theres also going to be an increase in divorce. Contraception, by its very nature, and as a broad social phenomenon, tends to incline the heart of a nation towards abortion. As John Paul II put it in Evangelium Vitae, the contraceptive mentality strengthens the temptation to abort. Contraception and abortion are not the same thing, but as John Paul put it, they are as closely connected as fruits of the same tree. http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20081003-164315/Population-bill-a-bigwaste--think-tank

Population bill a big waste--think tank By Michelle Remo Philippine Daily Inquirer First Posted 04:07:00 10/03/2008 Filed Under: Population, Family planning, Legislation, Poverty, Conflicts (general), Statistics MANILA, PhilippinesA bill seeking to impose population control in the country would lead to a waste of valuable resources that would be better ploughed into education and infrastructure, a conservative think-tank said Thursday. The proposed law, the Reproductive Health bill, or House bill No. 5043, comes at a time when countries that adopted similar policies in the 1970s were reversing them as they started to worry about supporting their ageing populations, said economists at the University of Asia and the Pacific, a Catholic school in Pasig City founded by Opus Dei members. The schools chief economist Bernardo Villegas said controlling the population would be demographic suicide, and would put the blame for widespread poverty in the country with people who are not yet even born. I agree that mass poverty is the biggest scandal in the Philippines. [But] there is no strong empirical evidence in my field, which is economic science, that shows population growth is responsible for mass poverty, Villegas told a press briefing Thursday. Villegas said that one of the biggest fallacies ever told was that the bigger the family, the poorer it was. The ultimate resource of the planet is the human being. Population growth can actually be a tool for eradicating poverty, Villegas said. Potential veto The bill is about 12 votes shy of passing in the House of Representatives, according to its principal author, Albay Rep. Edcel Lagman. However, it lacks the support of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, a devout Roman Catholic who could theoretically veto it even if passed by the House and the Senate. Lagman said a dozen previous population bills over the past generation had been defeated. The dominant Catholic Church has threatened to excommunicate legislators who vote for the bill. Under the proposed law, the state would have to fund a population program, teach it at schools and to couples intending to marry, and have government hospitals offer contraceptives, vasectomies and tubal ligations, an operation that blocks the fallopian tubes.

Singapore as example It would require the state to encourage two children as the ideal family size. The Philippines has one of the highest birth rates in Asia, with the population growing at around two percent annually and expected to top 100 million in five years. Villegas noted that government data showed that population density did not have a direct relation to poverty. He said that Singapore had 7,223 persons for every square kilometer, while the Philippines had only 255. Although population density in Singapore was much higher, its per capita gross national income was way better at $21,230 compared with the Philippines $1,081. Comparing data on regions within the country, Villegas said the National Capital Region had 15,617 people for every square kilometer, much higher than that of any other region in the country. The Eastern Visayas Region, for instance, only had 173 people per square kilometer. But despite that, the NCR was still identified as the richest region in the Philippines, with a real per capita income of P32,219. Per capita in Eastern Visayas was recorded only at P6,708. With a report from Agence France-Presse