Liquidity Cycle

The broad equity indices generally continue their robust performance in 2012 challenging significant overhead resistance as shown in the SPX chart below. Readings in the Liquidity Cycle Indicator (LCI) remain supportive of a positive outcome. The ECRI weekly leading index has ticked up again also. As I write this on a holiday in the US markets elsewhere are reacting positively to current crop of rumors of an agreement on a Greek bailout. Thoughts on the merits of any Greek deal will be discussed later but on price action alone the market seems to want to get a deal and put on a rally.

The next chart reveals how our early cycle indicators have taken the wheel and are powering the rally since early January. Financials are one of the participants in this group and the ECB move to adopt far less strenuous standards for collateral and initiate the LTRO program triggered much better liquidity in the banking sectors and those securities in the US especially have responded. The ECB move occurred in mid-December and once the market had digested the fact that this was a huge Tarp like program the money flow into financials accelerated and off they went.

Following are some more graphs and tables illustrating the positive sector performance and breadth of the recent advance.

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Sector ETFs

The 1 week heat map below is another look available from www.Finviz.com for free that allows you to drill down and see sectors and individual charts or change to daily or monthly periods. I show this to illustrate how green the picture was for last weeks net direction.

Bullish sentiment has been high but the small decline in the market last week dropped sentiment rather sharply (see next page) which still indicates a somewhat jittery group of investors has not become over-confident.

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Commodities

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Price Curves
Soybeans historical comparison; Prices this year are below last year and the curve is flatter suggesting a more balanced global supply though the year to year contango is still a symptom of inadequate inventories should problems develop in current crops.

Wheat in Chicago and Kansas City both advanced in price but had little to no change in curve shape reflecting adequate supplies. Minneapolis wheat is in the chart below and the market is still not comfortable with the size of spring wheat inventories. This market is backwardated and next crop year prices advanced faster last week indicating to me that thee is increasing worry that one crop year is not going to relieve the supply concerns.

The corn curve one week change shows the price move higher but only the very slightest easing of 2012 contango and the continued backwardation crop year to crop year.

The meats were strong this past week and April Live Cattle popped up above resistance confirming the existing uptrend. Chart below is weekly and has a good strong candle breakout on the week. Feeder cattle for April also moved to new highs.

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Energies
Both WTI and Brent moved higher and the curves strengthened also. The very front few months in WTI still reflect the supply build in cushing but both markets are backwardated beyond the front. The war of words between the west and Iran appears to be close to combustion and Israel in particular is running out of time to talk before its safety is completely compromised by nuclear weaponry in the hands of Ahmedinijad. ( ok, I am not even trying to spell that right.) Over the week crack spreads weakened but heating/gas oil firmed up.

Fixed Income
Scott Grannis wrote a very good post on the fixed income market so I am going to let him speak for me: The problem with Treasury yields

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Im always on the lookout for valuation discrepancies, and these two charts highlight the biggest potential discrepancy that Im aware of today: Treasury yields are very low given the strength of the economy and the level of inflation. Stock prices are rising because the economy is proving to be somewhat stronger than expected. Inflation is not deadits been rising for the past yearand it now is close to where its been for the past decade, around 2-3%. Yet bond yields are near all-time lows and are priced to the expectation that the economy will be chronically weak and inflation will move towards zero. There are of course three valid explanations for why Treasury yields are so low despite the improvement in the economy and the outlook for 2-3% inflation (i.e., the market is not entirely crazy): 1) the Fed keeps insisting that it will keep short-term rates near zero for the next three years, 2) the Fed, via its Operation Twist, is actively attempting to keep Treasury note and bond yields low, and 3) the world is willing to pay very high prices for the safety of Treasuries given the threat of Eurozone sovereign defaults and the potential demise of the Euro. However, those rationales could evaporate very quickly, if a) the Fed becomes convinced that the economy is doing better than expected and there is little risk of inflation being too low, and b) the Eurozone survives a Greek default without any significant collateral damage. I think there is a reasonable chance we could see both of those developments within a reasonable time frame. Thus I view Treasuries as very risky investments, while equities remain relatively attractive, underpinned by relatively low PEs and strong corporate profits. UPDATE: There appears to be some confusion regarding the markets expectation of future inflation, and I should have made that clear in my initial post. The best measure of expected inflation that I know of is that which is derived from the pricing of TIPS and Treasuries. And the Fed agrees, having annointed the 5-yr, 5-yr forward inflation expectation implied in TIPS and Treasury prices as the best measure of the markets inflation expectations. I show that in the chart below, with the current reading being about 2.5%. On a longerterm basis, the expectation for average CPI inflation over the next 10 years is about 2.25%. Both of these expectations are very close to what inflation has averaged in the past 5 and 10 years, so there is nothing unusual in todays expectations for the future. You can see the same pattern in this chart as in the charts above: 10-yr yields are trading substantially below the level that has prevailed in the past, given current inflation expectations. No matter how you look at it, Treasury yields appear to be artificially depressed. And from my perspective, the pressures for higher yields are building daily.

Metals

Yields on sovereign CDS in the PIIGS have been easing on balance as the rhetoric around the Greek bailout continues to point toward an eventual agreement. The talk this weekend was of near agreement (again) and so some easing of those rates followed into the Monday session. Bloomberg chart on next page:

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Environment

Remains mostly bullish trend and quiet volatility.

Commentary and Supporting Information

Bob Janjuah: Markets Are So Rigged By Policy Makers That I Have No Meaningful Insights To Offer The notorious bear says were in a bubble, but the markets are too manipulated to make sense. His only recommendations are gold, non-financial high quality corporate credit and blue-chip big cap non-financial global equities. Bobs World: Monetary Anarchy Since my last note from early January I have spent the last few weeks assessing data and price action, as well as spending a lot of time talking to clients and trying to analyse the words and deeds of policymakers. In no particular order, my takeaways are as follows: 1 Greece (and the whole eurozone story) continues to lurch about, seemingly perpetually, from Farce to Tragedy. Policy seems to be focused on protecting and preserving vested interests, with little consideration given to the dreadful conditions the people of Greece and other peripherals? are being forced to live with. However, it seems that eurozone leaders may be about to pour even more taxpayer money down into the black hole that is Greece, primarily to help the banks in Europe, at the expense of perhaps a decade of suffering by the Greek populace. For my part, I am now consigning the Greece/Peripherals/Eurozone story to the box marked self-serving political debacle? and from here on in I will simplify Europe as follows: Until, and unless, Germany signs up to full fiscal union, a eurozone breakup is likely. And depending on how long we can continue to kick the can down the road in order to protect the eurozone banks, the eurozone will be consigned to an extended period of weak growth, which in turn means ever decreasing debt sustainability. Ultimately this means that the end game will simply be more devastating for us all the longer we are forced to wait. Investors should be fully aware that home? bias amongst real money investors is now off the charts?. This is not a good development for the eurozone, unless of course our leaders are preparing for break up, or at least considering it as a viable option. 2 I am staggered at how easily the concepts of Democracy and the Rule of Law two of the pillars of the modern world have been brushed aside in the interests of political expediency. This is not just a eurozone phenomenon but of course the removal of elected governments and the instalment of insider? technocrats who simply serve the interests of the elite has become a specialisation in Europe. Many will think this kind of development is not a big deal and is instead may be what is needed. Personally I am absolutely certain that the kind of totalitarianism being pushed on us by our leaders will if allowed to persist and fester end with consequences which are way beyond anything the printing presses of our central banks could ever hope to contain. Communism failed badly. Why then are we arguably trying to resurrect a version of it, particularly in Europe? Are the banks so powerful that we are all beholden to them and the biggest nonsense of all that defaults should never happen (unless said defaults are trivial or largely meaningless)? 3 More broadly, with Mr Draghi now in situ, it is clear that I misread and misunderstood two things. First, I am simply stunned that our policymakers seem so one-dimensional, so short-termist, and so utterly bereft of courage or ideas. It now seems obvious that in response to the financial crisis that has been with us for five years and counting, we are being toldto double up on these same policy decisions. The crisis was caused by central bankers mispricing the cost of capital, which forced a misallocation of capital, driven by debt/leverage, which was ultimately exposed as a hideous asset bubble which then collapsed, destroying the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of relatively innocent people. Well now, if you listen to the latest from Bernanke and Draghi, it seems that the only solution they can offer up is to yet again misprice the cost of capital, in the hope that, yet again, through increased leverage/debt, we are yet again greedy? enough to misallocate capital, which in turn will lead to yet another round of asset bubbles. Such asset bubbles are meant to delude us into believing that we are now richer. When as they do by definition these bubbles burst, those who have been suckered in will realise that their wealth? is instead an illusion, which in turn will be replaced by default risk. Secondly, I have clearly underestimated the markets willingness, nay desperation, to go along with this ultimately ruinous policy path. Personally, I think this is extremely worrying the number of clients who tell me that they know they are being forced into playing a game that will end in disaster, but who feel they have to play along and who hope they will get out before it turns, is a depressingly familiar old tale. Some such folks hang onto the idea that Draghi/LTRO changed the asymmetry of risk from deeply negative to positive. Yet even these folks know that printing more money/more liquidity/more debt/more leverage is not a viable solution to our ills, and in fact will mean true supply side reform and the search for true competiveness and sustainable growth will be further cast aside, as the focus will be on the easy gains to be made in markets. 4 - Assuming that we are in yet another liquidity fuelled rally courtesy of Bernanke and Draghi, then there are some key things to remember. First, such rallies can last days, weeks, months, perhaps we could even extend into 2013. And to give a proxy guide the S&P could end up in the high 1500s again if this current binge lasts into 2013. The problem with such liquidity fuelled set-ups is that they can last longer and get bigger than any reasonable logic would dictate. The issue here is not what central bankers say it now seems clear that Bernanke and Draghi will say whatever it takes to keep the market supplied with ample liquidity but what they can do. In this respect one either believes that central bankers can do whatever they like whenever they like, or one believes there are limits. I think there are limits to what Bernanke and Draghi can do, and once we hit those limits these bubbles will burst, with increasingly greater consequences the longer we are forced to wait. Do I know when we may hit these limits? I hope that it is sooner rather than later, but I have no real conviction.

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Secondly, when looking for where the bubbles may be, realise this: in this current cycle, where central bank balance sheets are at the core, the bubble is everywhere in stocks, in bonds, in growth expectation, in credit spreads, in currencies, in commodity prices, in most real asset prices you name it! This is why I think that this current bubble, if it is allowed to fester and develop into 2013, will have such widespread consequences when it bursts that it will make 2008 feel, relatively speaking, like a bull market. Third, when this bubble bursts, I dont think there is an easy way out. Who will be the bail-out provider? We already have extraordinarily weak and fragile government balance sheets, ditto banking balance sheets and consumer balance sheets. The big cap corporate balance sheet is sound, but it already worries about how bad the real economy hit will be when the next bubble bursts. As such, the corporate sector which has a huge degree of control over the political classes will keeps its powder dry until asset prices fall to clearing levels. When this happens they will be the biggest buyer of truly cheap assets in town, but not before then. The really dangerous thing about this next bubble is that it will likely ruin current central bank credibility, as their balance sheet expansion, accumulating ever more toxic assets, is at the centre of the current cycle. As a result, the central bank decision-making function is now (increasingly) deeply compromised, if not utterly at odds with its own raison dtre. This of course means that if/ when the current cycle implodes, central banks which have seen explosive balance sheet growth will add to the problems, rather than being able to act as credible lenders of last resort. A resulting consequence is that we will, at that point, usher in a new era of central banking and policy settings, where the key will be to regain a semblance of credibility and independence. This will be good news. But we will likely have to go through the bust first. 5 I am not well equipped to navigate bubbles where tactical views and secular views are all thrown into the melting pot together, where there is no visibility, where as one client put it to me recently we have Monetary Anarchy running riot, where the elastic band between the real economy and the current liquidity-fuelled markets is stretched further and further beyond credulity, and where history tells us that policymakers will happily stand by whilst bubbles are being pumped up, and hope that they are onto their next job before it all comes tumbling down. It seems that the 07/08/09 part of this crisis has resulted in zero lessons learned. In fact it is much worse than that as we are instead being asked to double up on a strategy which I fear will end in failure. As such, clearly my outlook in my last note needs to be re-assessed in terms of the latest developments. Whilst equity market levels are still within the tolerance limits set out in this previous note, my timing is clearly being stretched. Unfortunately for me, and as warned in the prior note, if my outlook set out therein is proven to be wrong, it is because I am overly cautious. I say unfortunately because the longer we have to wait for the final resolution to the global financial crisis, the bigger and more devastating the final leg lower will be. I have an extremely high level of conviction on this point. 6 So, in terms of markets, be warned. My personal recommendation is to sit in Gold and non-financial high quality corporate credit and bluechip big cap non-financial global equities. Bond and Currency markets are now so rigged by policy makers that I have no meaningful insights to offer, other than my bubble fears. Real assets are relatively attractive. But I am going to wait for this current central bank bubble to burst before going all in. I may be waiting 5 days, 5 weeks, 5 months, perhaps 5 quarters. It all depends on when and how our central bank leaders are exposed as lacking credibility and/or lacking the mandates to keep pumping liquidity into the system. The end of the bubble will be sign posted by either monetary anarchy creating major real economy inflation or by a deflationary credit collapse (if they run out of pumping mandates). The end game is incredibly binary in my view, but in between it is pretty much a random walk. Either way, bonds are toast in any secular timeframe (due either to huge inflationary pressures, or due to a deflationary credit collapse), which in turn means that asset bubbles in risky assets will get crushed on a secular basis. My colleague Kevin Gaynor has a more nuanced view and he feels that we may well avoid the bubble outcome, as political hurdles, political changes, growth and earnings data will all very quickly undermine central bankers and their bubble vision. For all our (long term) sakes, I hope I am wrong when it comes to fearing another round of liquidity-fuelled bubbles, and that he is right that good sense will prevail soon. I will continue to use the Dow/Gold charts to continue to guide me going forward. The USD price of an ounce of gold and the Dow will, I believe, converge at/around 1, at some point over the next 2 years or so. I have extremely high conviction on this. What I am not sure on is whether we converge at 7000+/-, or at 14000+/-. Because I do believe that even Bernanke and Draghi cannot do as they wish and that there are some limits to the recklessness of policymakers, I still lean towards a deflationary resolution at/about 7000 in the next year or two. Pretty vague, I know, buts its the best I can do right now, and what is clear is that, in the world I fear ahead, gold is a winner either way remember, gold is a great (monetary) inflation hedge, and in a deflationary credit collapse gold works as a store of value/wealth as it carries zero credit risk. As a credit guy at heart I see more likelihood in a deflationary credit (i.e., a real) collapse rather than a real economy inflationary (nominal) collapse. Either way however, what is clear is that if Bernanke and Draghi are allowed to continue on their current policy path for much longer, then whatever the final outcome will be, it will likely leave a deep scar on us for decades. Which on a ten-year timeframe may not be such a bad thing as it should kill off monetarism and usher in a new era of monetary and fiscal prudence? In the near term, LTRO2 at month-end is the next clear focus for markets, more so than Greece. If LTRO2 is USD1trn or more, the market will take that as a signal to load on more leverage, more risk and more carry. If LTRO2 is in the order of USD250bn to USD500bn, Risk Off will be the order of the day as markets will start to fear that central bankers are having to reign back-in their current policies, and that as a result we face another period where central bankers and policymakers fall back behind the curve. LTRO1 clearly took policymakers from behind to ahead of the curve, but this is an extremely fluid situation, where doing nothing is, in reality, the same as going backwards. As the skew of expectations is to a large LTRO2, a LTRO2 take-up in between these ranges is likely to be viewed with neutrality/mild disappointment.

Drought Map of the US

Similar historical comparisons to current climate conditions are likely to lead to continued dryness in the west and the plains including up into Canada while the eastern portion of the continent is wet at least through spring. This according to Evelyn Browning Gariss climate newsletter. I do have a copy of the Browning Newsletter that was freely distributed if anyone would like a copy. CHART OF THE DAY: Boaz Weinsteins Mammas Boy Index Hedge fund manager Boaz Weinstein, the founder of Saba Capital and former co-head of credit trading at Deutsche Bank, caught our attention during a presentation he gave recently with this awesome chart explaining the eurozone crisis. The chart below depicts the correlation between 5-year CDS (a form of insurance to protect against a credit event) of eurozone countries and the percentage of men ages of 25 to 34 still living at home with their mom and dad. Its pretty obvious what the pattern is...

I dont even know what to say about that chart. BBL

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Two interesting white papers produced at GMO recently. The pieces are a bit long for this document but are available here by registering at the site. I recommend registering as GMO makes available high quality white papers regularly as well as Jeremy Granthams Quarterly Letter. Grant Williams latest newsletter is out and in it he links to a youtube copy of his charts and speech at a conference last week. This is a really good presentation. It comes in two parts. Watch it.

Part one

Part two

Also this little tidbit from Grants letter:

Greek budget revenues are already a cool 1billion behind targets after ONE MONTH of 2012, and, in that time, contracted by 7% versus an expected expansion of just 8.9%. Read that again. Does anybody else find it as staggering as I do that, knowing what they know, the people making these targets could be THAT far off? This demonstrates one of three things: They are either completely in denial about how bad the situation is in Greece, the figures being touted as likely are designed to reflect that absolute BEST case scenario so as not to frighten people or the Greek economy is collapsing at a rate beyond their wildest projections. Either way, throwing another 100+ billion at them is a ridiculous waste considering the financial health of the majority of contributors to it. From Grant Williams TTMYGH

__________________________________________________________ China cut the RRR for its banks by 50 basis points this weekend as they slowly take steps to let the institutional foot off the brakes. Japan just announced another bazillion yen will be created as they target 1% inflation. So we have the biggest 4 economies in the world easing liquidity at the same time. If the policies work to regenerate economic growth it could be an inflationary disaster in the making, and if it does not succeed it will be a deflationary disaster in the making. Aint this fun. Own real things that produce real income. Put that income in real things. Those are the things that will still be needed under this or the next monetary system. Dont look so sad, I know its over. But life goes on, and this old world will keep on turning. Kris Kristofferson Feb 21,2012

---Bruce Lawrence

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