Mapping Irelands Current & Future Energy Generation

Mapping Irelands Current & Future Energy Generation
Submitted By: Peter Duffy & Shane McCarthy
Supervisor: Brian Gallachir
BE Energy Engineering Final Year Project Module NE4020 March 2012
2012
If I cant picture it I cant understand it. Albert Einstein
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Supervised By: Dr. Brian Gallachir
2012
Declaration of Own Work

We, the undersigned, herby certify that the work included in this report is our own work unless otherwise indicated: Peter Duffy Shane McCarthy
Date
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the considerable assistance and guidance of Dr. Brian Gallachir throughout the project, to whom a sincere thanks is offered for what was an enjoyable process. The feedback, advice and Irish TIMES scenario information provided by UCCs Energy Policy and Modelling Group was also of great benefit, with thanks to Alessandro Chiodi, Maurizio Gargiulo and Paul Deane. To Google & w3schools for recognising the benefits of sharing knowledge and information with everyone. Thanks and appreciation also to Martin McCarthy from SEAI for his input into the project. A final thanks to all the lecturers and staff of the UCC Engineering department. Finally, we hope you enjoy using and learning from these maps as much as we did making them, Shane McCarthy & Peter Duffy
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Executive Summary
The purpose of this project was to map Irelands current and future energy generation with Google Maps. Four future energy generation scenarios developed by UCCs Energy Policy and Modelling Group were represented. These Irish TIMES scenarios are to the forefront of energy modelling in Ireland. These Energy Maps were created with the online database Google Fusion Tables coupled with Google Maps Javascript API scripting. The maps were successfully developed from an application developer point of view. This method of mapping was found to be a viable alternative to the industry standard Graphical Information System (GIS) software. The process proved its suitability for visualising energy models and this report outlines its advantages over GIS: Free Data Hosting and Free Developer Tools Fully Customisable Maps with all existing Google Map Functions User Friendly Interface HTML Format for Instant Upload to Host Sites Data Rendered in the Cloud for Dramatically Reduced Load Times Accessible from Smart Phones and iPads with Internet Access
The complete methodology behind the creation of the maps comprises of three stages. Firstly, data gathering was completed through contacting government agencies and research conducted online. Secondly, a database was created in order to host the data online to enhance its accessibility. Finally, the maps were scripted using HTML and Javascript computer languages. The result is a series of comprehensive and compelling maps representing Irelands current energy generation and the Irish TIMES scenarios. The accompanying CD contains the interactive live versions of these maps. The ease of sharing digital media enables the contents of this project to reach a wide audience. Pertinent uses of these maps include: Informing Policy Makers Educating Students and the General Public Commercial Applications
In addition, these maps will bridge the gap between energy policy makers and the general public. The importance of this is clear; The European Commissions Energy Roadmap 2050 specifically states that Citizens need to be informed and engaged in the decision making process. This sentiment is also echoed in Irelands National Renewable Energy Action Plan; The Government does not underestimate the challenge of winning the hearts and minds of local communities, in support of the new infrastructure required to deliver change. It is the firm belief of the authors that this project can be a pivotal tool in accomplishing these goals.
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Table of Contents
Declaration of Own Work .................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................................. iv Executive Summary............................................................................................................................. v 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 11 The Challenges .................................................................................................................................. 11 TIMES ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Scenarios ........................................................................................................................................... 13 o o o o Reference Scenario 2020 ...................................................................................................... 13 16% RES by 2020. .................................................................................................................. 13 20% GHG emissions reduction for Non-ETS by 2020. ........................................................... 13 95% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050 ................................................................................. 14
2. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 19 All Coding Aside ............................................................................................................................. 18 Data Gathering .................................................................................................................................. 20 Images & Links .................................................................................................................................. 32 Building the Database ....................................................................................................................... 33 Mapping ............................................................................................................................................ 35 Method 1 Google Maps ................................................................................................................. 35 Google Earth ..................................................................................................................................... 43 3. Results ............................................................................................................................................... 45 1. Irelands Current Energy Generation ............................................................................................. 46 2. 2020 Reference ............................................................................................................................. 49 3. 16% RES by 2020 ........................................................................................................................... 53 4. 20% GHG emissions reduction for non-ETS by2020 ..................................................................... 57 5. 95% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050 ......................................................................................... 62 4. Applications....................................................................................................................................... 69 Education .......................................................................................................................................... 69 Policy Making .................................................................................................................................... 70 Corporate Use ................................................................................................................................... 71 Further Development ....................................................................................................................... 72 References ............................................................................................................................................. 73
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Table of Figures
Figure 1 Sources of data collected ........................................................................................................ 20 Figure 2 Bioenergy data collection process .......................................................................................... 21 Figure 3 Eirgrid data collection process ................................................................................................ 23 Figure 4 Wind farm area calculation process ....................................................................................... 24 Figure 5 Creating land areas for Wind farms using arrays in coding .................................................... 25 Figure 6 Creating wind farm areas with Fusion tables ......................................................................... 26 Figure 7 Close up of wind farm areas created with fusion tables ........................................................ 26 Figure 8 Restricted areas data collection process ................................................................................ 27 Figure 9 Generating forestry areas with online web application ......................................................... 28 Figure 10 Locating potential future Bioenergy areas ........................................................................... 31 Figure 11 Adding images and links to information windows ................................................................ 32 Figure 12 Creation of online database .................................................................................................. 33 Figure 13 Limitations of standard Google Maps ................................................................................... 35 Figure 14 Wind farm Fusion table displayed on a map ........................................................................ 38 Figure 15 Creating a webpage using html ............................................................................................ 39 Figure 16 Embedding Javascript into the html ..................................................................................... 39 Figure 17 Webpage creation ................................................................................................................. 40 Figure 18 Querying and displaying Fusion table data ........................................................................... 40 Figure 19 Creating a legend .................................................................................................................. 41 Figure 20 Fully functioning Google map created .................................................................................. 41 Figure 21 Webpage styling and formatting .......................................................................................... 42 Figure 22 Google sketch model created ............................................................................................... 43 Figure 23 Youtube video created .......................................................................................................... 43 Figure 24 Irelands Current Energy Generation Map coding ................................................................. 47 Figure 25 2020 Reference Scenario Map coding .................................................................................. 51 Figure 26 16% RES Scenario 2020 Map coding ..................................................................................... 55 Figure 27 20% GHG 2020 Scenario Map coding ................................................................................... 59 Figure 28 95% CO2 Emissions Reduction by 2050 Scenario Map coding ............................................. 65 Figure 29 Associating land area with energy generation...................................................................... 69 Figure 30 Identifying wind farm applications located in restricted areas ............................................ 71
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Table of Tables
Table 1 2011 Forecast of forest harvest area & net realisible volume.................................................29 Table 2 Forestry conversion factor (a)..................................................................................................29 Table 3 Wood biomass Energy use (2007 - 2009) ................................................................................30 Table 4 Forestry data 2012...................................................................................................................30 Table 5 Forestry conversion factor (b)..................................................................................................30 Table 6 Irelands Current E-T-H demand...............................................................................................46 Table 7 Irelands Current RES................................................................................................................46 Table 8 2020 Reference Scenario E-T-H demand..................................................................................49 Table 9 2020 Reference Scenario RES...................................................................................................49 Table 10 2020 Reference Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets...................................................................50 Table 11 2020 Reference Scenario land area.......................................................................................50 Table 12 16% RES 2020 Scenario E-T-H demand.................................................................................53 Table 13 16% RES 2020 Scenario 2020 RES..........................................................................................53 Table 14 16% RES 2020 Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets.....................................................................54 Table 15 16% RES 2020 Scenario land area..........................................................................................54 Table 16 20% NETS 2020 Scenario E-T-H demand................................................................................57 Table 17 20% NETS 2020 Scenario RES.................................................................................................57 Table 18 20% NETS 2020 Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets...................................................................58 Table 19 20% NETS 2020 Scenario land area........................................................................................58 Table 20 95% CO2 Emissions Reduction by 2050 Scenario E-T-H demand...........................................62 Table 21 95% CO2 Emission Reductions by 2050 Scenario RES............................................................62 Table 22 95% CO2 Emission Reductions by 2050 Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets..............................64 Table 23 95% CO2 Emission Reductions by 2050 Scenario land area...................................................64
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Table of Maps
Map 1: Irelands Current Energy Generation.........................................................................................48 Map 2: Scenario 1 2020 Reference... ...................................................................................................52 Map 3: Scenario 2 2020 16% RES .........................................................................................................56 Map 4: Scenario 3 2020 20% Non-ETS..................................................................................................59 Map 5: Scenario 4 95% CO2 Emissions Reduction by 2050..................................................................66
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Chapter 1 - Introduction
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1. Introduction
In a time when policies and plans are being formulated which will determine the future of Irelands energy landscape over the coming years and decades, the importance of visualising the potential outcomes of these plans cannot be overstated. It is imperative that both policy makers at the highest level and the general public are equipped with the resources to enable them to make informed decisions. From the outset the goal of this project was to create mapping resources capable of aiding those responsible for devising plans to shape Irelands energy future while also informing all others who may not have such expertise. The challenges faced and the benefits of developing our mapping resource are explored in depth in this report.
The Challenges
In 2009 the EU developed an integrated energy and climate change policy with the aim of combating climate change and creating a sustainable energy future for all member states. This Climate and Energy package focuses on three key areas: 1. Renewables. 2. Emissions cuts. 3. Energy efficiency. Ireland is committed to meeting the binding EU legislation for each of these areas. This EU legislation and the relevant targets which apply to Ireland have been examined in more detail in the next section of this report (Irish TIMES Scenarios).
How will we meet the challenges? Meeting the Renewables and Emissions Cuts targets will not be easy and will require Ireland to adapt to great change. Various means of meeting these targets have been examined in The Irish TIMES models and simulations, with scenarios developed which enable the country to meet the targets on a least cost basis. These TIMES scenarios have been analysed in this project with suitable maps created to represent the models and simulations undertaken.
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TIMES
TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) is an economic model generator for energy systems which enables the estimation of energy dynamics over a long time period. It is described as a bottom up energy model, and can be applied to the analysis of the entire energy sector (Electricity, Heat and Transport). Bottom up modes are very detailed and technology explicit models that are primarily focused on the energy sector of an economy. The output provided by TIMES is the optimal technology selection with minimum total system cost under the constraints imposed (ie. The TIMES model aims to meet energy demand at minimum cost given a series of constraints). As TIMES is capable of simulating energy systems over a long time period it is particularly suited to the exploration of possible energy futures based on a series of scenarios. A scenario consists of a set of assumptions about the future trajectories of the main drivers of an energy system. All TIMES models have an identical mathematical structure, however, each regional model will differ according to the data inputs. The structure of TIMES is defined by variables and equations which are determined by the data inputs. TIMES configures the energy system for a region over the given time horizon in such a way as to satisfy a number of constraints while minimising the net total cost. The TIMES model is run in a dynamic manner and has perfect foresight. This means that all investment decisions made in each time period have full knowledge of future events. Research has been undertaken by UCCs Energy Policy and Modelling Group, co-ordinated by Dr. Brian Gallachir, to apply the TIMES model to the Irish energy system. Funding secured from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Climate Change Research Programme 2007 2013 has enabled this TIMES research group, to create energy system optimisation models for Ireland. Utilising the TIMES model a series of system configurations have been developed that will meet Irelands projected energy demand requirements at minimum cost, with policy constraints also accounted for. In collaboration with the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in predicting Irelands economy to 2050, scenarios have been created for the period out to 2050. The Irish TIMES is an important tool in enabling the analysis of future energy policy introduction and predicting how the Irish economy may react to such changes.
The Irish TIMES scenarios examined and mapped in this project include: o o o o 2020 Reference. 16% RES by 2020. 20% GHG emissions reduction for non-ETS by 2020. 95% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050.
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Scenarios
o Reference Scenario 2020
The 2020 Reference scenario has no constraints on emissions or the portion of Renewables being used. Current trends are continued, however this scenario will differ slightly from the predicted 2020 Business as usual model as TIMES simulates to least cost and thus the Reference Scenario will be more cost effective then may be the case in reality. Energy improvements such as the increasing energy efficiency of new houses are taken into account.
o 16% RES by 2020.
In 2009 the European Union established a second Renewables Directive to amend and replace two previous Directives relating to renewable energy. EU Directive 2009/28/EC consists of a binding target for the EU of sourcing 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020 [1]. Each member state has a different individual binding renewable energy target, with the overall goal of enabling the EU to achieve its main target. Ireland has a target of sourcing 16% of gross final consumption from Renewables by 2020. In addition to this, 10% of all transport energy must come from renewable sources by 2020. [2] Ireland 2020 16% of gross final consumption comes from Renewables. 10% of all transport energy must come from renewable sources.
20% GHG emissions reduction for Non-ETS by 2020.
The EU Commission has a target of a 20% reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions compared to 1990 by 2020. This policy builds on commitments made in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. This target has been divided into the sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and non-ETS sectors. There are no specific national emissions targets from ETS sectors for 2020. A single cap has been proposed for the entire EU, a 21% reduction in EU ETS sector emissions by 2020 compared to 2005 levels [1]. The EU has proposed individual targets for each member state for non-ETS sectors. Ireland has the target of reducing its non-ETS sector emissions by 20% by 2020 relative to 2005 levels. This has been estimated to equate to 37.9 Mtonnes of C02. [3] Ireland 2020 Reduction of non-ETS sector emissions by 20% by 2020 relative to 2005 levels
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95% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050
The European heads of state and governments have agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the whole economy by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This target comes as part of the EUs Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy by 2050 and is keeping in line with the Copenhagen and Cancun agreements to keep climate change below 2%. [4] What happens if we dont meet the targets? Failure to meet these targets may result in the European Commission commencing infringement proceedings against Ireland. The initial infringement proceedings come under Article 258 & 259 of the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). Although the process for infringement proceedings is long and involves multiple steps it could result in penalties being sanctioned by the European Commission or the European Court of Justice against member states who fail the meet the EUs renewable energy targets. These infringement proceedings may also be issued before the 2020 deadline if the EU commission believes that a member state is not in line with EU rules. The infringement proceedings may be initiated against a member state on the grounds of: Failure to produce a credible national action plan. Failure to implement all aspects of the Directive. Significant deviation from plan or trajectory. [5]
A number of countries have already been reprimanded by the EU Commission, with Italy receiving a reasoned opinion (The first step involved in the disciplinary process) and consequently a referral to the European Court of Justice for failing to meet EU Directive 2001/77/EC on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market. [6] It is clear that meeting the binding EU legislation is vital for Ireland in order to avoid EU court proceedings and the penalties they impose. All EU member states are obliged to develop National Renewable Energy Action plans to help ensure they meet the binding targets in place.
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National Renewable Energy Action Plan Under article 4 of EU directive 2009/28/EC each member state was required to develop a National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) to the European Commission, to be submitted before 30 June 2010. Irelands plan provided a detailed outline on how it intends to meet its energy target for 2020 [7]. The plan is broken up into three sectors, renewable energy in electricity (RES-E), transport (RES-T) & Heat (RES-H). Each member state is allowed certain flexibility in how they intend to meet their overall energy target. The main components of Irelands NREAP are summarised below: Irelands NREAP targets 2020 RES-E RES-T RES-H 12% renewable heat. 10% of all transport energy from Renewables. (Biofuels & the renewable portion of electricity). 40% of gross electricity to come from Renewables.
Under Article 22 of EU Directive 2009/28/EC member states were required to submit a progress report on their respective NREAPs by 2012, with progress reports required to be submitted biannually thereafter. Ireland submitted its first progress report in January 2012. In accordance with the template provided by the EU this report outlines Irelands current situation, measures taken to promote the growth of renewable energy, support systems in place along with other information which shows the EU that Ireland is making an effort to implement its NREAP. The importance of meeting the binding EU legislation is highlighted by the EU Commissions requirement for all member states to submit progress reports showing their efforts to comply with the Directives in place.
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Mapping The value of creating maps to visualise renewable energy development plans is recognised by the EU Commission, with the importance emphasised to all member states in their efforts to meet the targets outlined in EU Energy Directives. The EU template for National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) specifically asks member states if they Intend to indicate geographic locations suitable for exploitation of energy from renewable sources in land use planning. [8] The Irish government also acknowledges the role maps can plan in helping the country meet its specific energy targets. The NREAP progress report submitted by Ireland indicates that the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) have geographical information system (GIS) maps for a limited number of renewable energy sources, and they are considering further development of GIS [9]. The value of maps in displaying renewable energy data is clearly expressed in their view that maps can be used to facilitate accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies in Ireland. An examination of recent NREAP progress reports for Germany, Sweden, Denmark and a number of other EU member states shows a similar importance being placed on such maps. [10] The value of mapping Irelands current and future energy generation is thus recognised by both the EU Commission and the Irish authorities responsible for creating Irelands NREAP. Maps can aid policy makers by providing a visual representation of the effects of introducing these plans and also educate the public on the decisions being made regarding the future of their country. The importance of getting the public on-side in all developments will be explored in more depth in the Applications section of this report.
It is impossible even to think without a mental picture. Aristotle
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Chapter 2 Methodology
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All Coding Aside
A major theme of this project is inclusion. The maps created act as a buffer between the energy industries modelling groups and the general public. They allow everyone to understand the implications of policy implementation and demystify large energy figures that can be daunting even to engineers. As a significant amount of this project veered from Energy Engineering into Computer Science, the authors have chosen to include the All Coding Aside blue button. Attached to each is the meaning of a specific computer term that has been mentioned on that same page. It is present for complete inclusion of all readers.
All Coding Aside
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2. Methodology
Contained in this section are the thoughts, processes and methods behind the creation of the finalised maps. The entire progression can be defined as three separate processes; Data Gathering, Database Creation and Map Building. However, before a finalised method was developed it was necessary that the process met the following requirements: All Coding Aside Data Requirements: Accurate Information on all Connected, Contracted, Energised & Application Stage Generators Accurate Biomass, Forestry & Restricted locations
Database Requirements: Large online Data Storage Data Management and Publishing Structured Query Language (SQL) based or other appropriate script
Mapping Requirements: Display of Significant amounts of data at any time Relatively automated Customisation Accurate, fast and easy to use
The final method employed uses Google fusion tables to host the information online coupled with .Google Maps Javascript API V3 to generate customisable maps on the Google maps Platform. Fusion Tables: Google Fusion Tables (or just Fusion Tables) is a Web service provided by Google for data management. Data is stored in multiple tables that Internet users can view and download. The Web service provides means for visualizing the data. Data is exported in a comma-separated values file format. API: An application-programming interface (API) is a set of programming instructions and standards for accessing a Web-based software application or Web tool (Such as google maps). A software company (Google) releases its API to the public so that other software developers can design products that are powered by its service.
All coding Aside All coding Aside
Google Maps Javascript API V3: lets you embed Google Maps on web pages. Version 3 of the API is especially designed to be faster and more applicable to mobile devices, as well as traditional desktop browser applications. The API provides a number of utilities for manipulating and adding content to the map through a variety of services, allowing you to create robust maps applications that can be displayed on a website.
All coding Aside
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Data Gathering
Various government agencies were contacted in an attempt to gather the data required for this project. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) and EirGrid were the primary sources of information. The SEAI provides informed advice to Government and the general public on green technologies and Irelands renewable Energy resources. EirGrid are the sole transmission system operator (TSO) and subsequently have information on all the electricity generators connected to the Irish power grid. A summary of the main sources and the type of data they are associated with is shown here:
Figure 1 Sources of data collected
Coillte is a commercial company operating in forestry, land based businesses, renewable energy and panel products. While the National Parks and Wildlife Service hold information on the various restricted areas of Ireland. In order to guarantee that the data collected was accessible and could be edited readily, it was important to ensure that all data was stored in excel spreadsheets. The challenge of data gathering was therefore not only finding freely available and accurate information, but being able to convert that information into excel format. As much of the information available to the public is in a geographic format; the Map2excel method of converting geographic data files into Microsoft excel format was utilised throughout the data gathering process. This method utilises various online resources but was developed for the purposes of this project. It is explained in detail in this section.
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The field locations of current Miscanthus, Reed Canary Grass, Spring Oil Seed Rape, Switchgrass, Willow and Winter Oil Seed Rape crops were available on the Sustainable Energy Authority of Irelands website: http://maps.seai.ie/bioenergy/. This consisted of 937 separate fields displayed on a GIS map. This information was not extractable however and as such, each field was individually re-drawn onto a standard Google map using the satellite view when available to get perfect accuracy.
Figure 2 Bioenergy data collection process
For each of the different crop types a separate Google map was made. Due to the fundamental issues with a standard Google map, as discussed later, information in this format was inadequate and as such excel spreadsheets of the information displayed on these maps was required. The following method, which will be called the Map2excel method for the purpose of this report, describes how this was made possible through the exportation of these maps as .kml files.
Keyhole Markup Language (KML): is a file format used to display geographic data in Google Earth, Google Maps, and Google Maps for mobile. You can create KML files to pinpoint locations, add image overlays, and expose rich data various ways.
All coding Aside
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1) Generate desired information in Google map then Download Google Map as .kml file
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Google Map to .kml
2) Upload .kml to Google Documents as a Fusion Table
.Kml to Fusion Table
3) Export Fusion table as Excel spreadsheet
Fusion Table to Excel
4) Result: Excel Spreadsheet with all information from Google map
Result
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EirGrid are the sole Irish Transmission System Operator (TSO). Information on all the generators associated with the national grid is held by EirGrid. This information is categorised as Wind Generators and Other types of generator and is located at on their website at the following address: http://www.eirgrid.com/customers/connectedandcontractedgenerators/. This location contains information on the current connected, contracted and energised generators. These files were extracted as .pdf files and converted to excel format.
Figure 3 Eirgrid data collection process
Certain key information was not provided readily by EirGrid such as the location of some installed generator. This information had be researched and gathered on a case by case basis. County council planning applications were consulted in order to gather the exact locations that where needed. Other parameters were assigned manually to the data such as their associated county, in this way further analysis and representations of Irelands Energy production could be performed. As the scenarios that were to be developed would inevitably require more than the connected, contracted and energised generators, information on generators at an application stage was required. This was found on EirGrids Archive Completed Generation Applications and Related Documents section which is publically available and found at the following location on their website http://www.eirgrid.com/customers/completedgenerationapplications/archivecompletedgeneration applications/. The archive section is presented in a timeline format beginning February 2004 and ending December 2011, with updates several times a year. However, it is dynamic in nature with many applications appearing in several locations with details altered. In order to select generators for use in the scenarios, the latest archive entry was scrutinized and the required generator types and sizes chosen in order to meet scenario demands. Also, Locations were given in Northing and Easting format and required conversion to latitude and longitude manually on a case by case basis. Thus, through manipulate of EirGrids available information coupled with online research a full excel dataset of Irelands Electricity generation was created. Each generator however was represented solely as a pin point location and not a land area as required. The land area associated with non-
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wind generators was created uniquely for each using the Map2excel method of which there were over 100. Again, satellite view where available was utilised in order to achieve near perfect accuracy. In the case of wind generators it was intended that land areas be generated depending on the installed megawatt capacity of the wind farm. In order to relate land areas to wind farm locations it was necessary to find a relationship between the installed capacity of a wind farm and its total area. The most accurate way was to examine wind farms which have already been built and whose turbines are visible on the Google maps satellite, thus enabling site boundaries to be established. Wind farms which were developed before the current Gate system and those in Gate 1 were examined first as they were the earliest to be developed and most likely to be built when Google took their satellite images of Ireland. Particular attention was paid to wind farms in the South and East of the country as the satellite images tend to be of higher quality in these areas and a more accurate area calculation could be achieved. As it is quite hard to distinguish boundaries between windfarms in close proximity, windfarms in isolation were sought for the calculations. A variety of windfarm sizes were chosen, with installed capacity varying between 3.4MW and 42.5MW. An online area calculation tool was used to generate the area associated with the chosen Windfarms.http://www.daftlogic.com/projects-google-maps-area-calculator-tool.htm. Once the suitable windfarms had been chosen and their areas calculated an excel spreadsheet was created to establish the relationship between the installed MW and the area of each Windfarm. The data points were plotted in a scatter graph, with the installed capacity on one axis and area being on the other. A best-fit trendline was then added to fit the points, with a formula generated to represent this trendline.
Figure 4 Wind farm area calculation process
The formula of the trendline was:
It should be noted that the area of a Windfarm is dependent on a wide range of factors including, but not restricted to; number of turbines installed, size of turbine blades, landscape and proximity to houses. However, this formula was found to be an accurate representation of the land required.
Area of windfarm = Installed capacity 0.0874
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Through map building methods described later, this formula was used to create land areas for each wind farm. The resulting map, which was customised to ensure these areas were highlighted, appeared as follows:
Figure 5 Creating land areas for Wind farms using arrays in coding
In this case the list of wind farms was defined as an array within the code itself. The circles generated however had a fundamental limitation; if the user clicked on them, no information window appeared. Even if an appropriate script was generated to associate information windows to each of the elements of the array, if the map were subject to change, the code itself would have to be altered which would inevitably devalue the ease of functionality associated with the entire methodology. The main reason for the exclusion of this method however was its detachment from the fusion tables database which would have introduced non-uniformity into the system. A method was therefore devised to call the information from the fusion table through a query. Query: To interrogate a collection of data such as records in a database. The term may also be used to search a single file or collection of files such as HTML files on the Web. However, in addition to obtaining lists of records that match the search criteria, queries to a database allow for counting items and summing amounts. A query on the Web yields only a list of matching pages and is more often called a "search.
All coding Aside
Through this method circles representing wind farms were generated on a Google map using Javascript to retrieve the MEC value from the corresponding fusion table, and multiply it by the defined value of 0.0874.
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Figure 6 Creating wind farm areas with Fusion tables
This map generated areas through the fusion table database. It was also intended to allow users to click on markers at the centre of the circle to display information windows regarding the wind farms. These markers are relatively large from a high zoom level and would misrepresent the area of each wind farm. Code was therefore applied to only display these markers at an appropriate zoom level where there was no risk of misleading the user, seen below as red dots:
Figure 7 Close up of wind farm areas created with fusion tables
Thus a method of generating wind farm areas based upon their installed megawatt capacity was developed. However, following closer examination of the areas generated it was found that the user was unable to click on the red dots to display the information windows at certain zoom levels. Also, A value of 0.0874*MEC was found to misrepresent some current wind farms. For those reasons, each of the 380 current, contracted and application windfarm areas were drawn individually using the Map2excel method in order to generate their associated geometry.
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Special Protection areas, proposed natural heritage areas, natural heritage areas and special areas of conservation shapefiles are available for download through the Natural Parks & Wildlife Service website. Shapefile: is a popular geospatial vector data format for geographic information systems software. It is developed and regulated by ESRI as a (mostly) open specification for data interoperability among ESRI and other software products. Shapefiles spatially describe geometries: points, polylines, and polygons.
All coding Aside
Figure 8 Restricted areas data collection process
Free software called Shp2kml was found online and used to convert the shapefiles into .kml format. These could then be uploaded as fusion tables and exported as excel spreadsheets as per step 2) 3) & 4) of the Map2excel method. The resulting data available for manipulate is comprehensive and includes the SiteName, SiteCode, SiteNumber, N2kCode, VER, ShapeArea and Geometry of each area. This information could therefore be made accessible to the map users through the information windows.
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Forestry areas were generated using the daftlogic Google maps area calculator tool; http://www.daftlogic.com/projects-google-maps-area-calculator-tool.htm. This is an online web application that allows users to utilize Google Maps to define boundaries and then find the associated area. A section of the application which demonstrates this function is shown below:
Figure 9 Generating forestry areas with online web application
Through limitations of the application, the user was only able to generate one polygon at a time. Each area was therefore generated separately, downloaded as a .kml and uploaded to a standard Google map where the Map2excel method was again employed to generate excel spreadsheets of the forestry map data. In order to calculate the forestry area required to meet the demands of each scenario, a conversion factor for the volume of wood produced per hectare of forestry was calculated. To achieve this, data in the Coillte All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011- 2028 report was analysed. According to this report, the total net realisable volume production was 3.79 million m3 of overbark in 2011. [10]
Net realisable volume [11]
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The area of forestry used each year is split into two categories; Thinning and Clearfelling. Thinning is the removal of a portion of the trees in a crop, carried out by selectively removing inferior stems in order to promote the growth of the remainder better quality stems. 22,800 hectares of forestry thinning was carried out in Ireland in 2011. [11] Clearfelling is the practice of cutting down and removing all trees from a given tract of forest. 7,200 hectares of forestry clearfelling was carried out in Ireland in 2011. [11]
Forecast of Harvest Area [11]
Area Thinning Clearfelling
ha 22,800 7,200 30,000
Volume Net realisable
million (m3) 3.79 3.79
Table 1 2011 Forecast of harvest area & net realisible volume [11]
This data was then used to calculate the conversion factor and estimate the volume of overbark which is produced per hectare of forestry. The conversion factor was therefore calculated as: m3 OB 1 ha 0.007916
Table 2 Forestry conversion factor (a)
ie. 0.007916 hectares will produce approximately 1 m3 of overbark.
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The Coford Woodflow and biomass use on the island of Ireland 2009 report was analysed to determine the quantity of forestry products used for energy purposes each year.
Table 3 Wood biomass Energy use (2007 - 2009)[12]
000m3 OB End use Domestic heating Commercial heating Commercial heating Domestic & commercial heating Domestic use Process drying/heating/CHP 2007 44 35 1 67 2 420 569 2008 54 63 1 82 2 384 586 2009 87 53 4 110 2 438 694
Type Firewood Roundwood chipped in forest Short rotation coppice (SRC) Wood pellets & briquettes Charcoal Wood biomass use for energy generation in the forest products industry Total
694,000 m3 of overbark was used for energy purposes in 2009 [12]. Using the conversion factor previously calculated this equates to 54.93km2 of forestry area. This Irish TIMES scenarios indicate that a total of 8.54 PJ of wood products were used for energy purposes in this timeframe. These wood products consist of Forestry residues potential and Wood processing residues.
Table 4 Forestry data 2012 [12]
m3 Overbark 694000
Hectares 5493.704
km2 54.93704
PJ 8.54
Equating this 8.9 PJ of wood products to the 54.93km2 of forestry area used for energy purposes a conversion factor of 1 PJ per 6.43km2 is calculated.
Table 5 Forestry conversion factor (b)
PJ 1
km2 6.432909
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Following correspondence with SEAI it became clear that exact locations of future biomass production areas were impossible to predict. The following method was therefore devised: A Google map was generated that displayed all restricted areas along with connected, contracted and application wind farms (through a method described later). The Google map itself displayed forestry and urban areas. These areas were eliminated by inspection when generating polygons for the proposed crop locations. The total biomass required for the scenarios was also divided on a per county basis, based on the countys current proportion of the total biomass being produced for Ireland. This method gives a logical prediction of where Irelands future energy crops will most likely be grown. These percentages were sourced from the SEAI bioenergy map. [13] For example, Kildare currently accounts for 4.08% of Irelands bioenergy generation; therefore 4.08% of the total increase in land area for indigenous bioenergy required for a scenario was assigned to Kildare. The .kml for each individual polygon was once again generated individually using the daftlogic Google maps area calculator tool which were all then compiled in a standard Google map and convert using the Map2excel method.
County Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Dublin Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow
% Biomass 4.15% 0.12% 0.16% 14.17% 1.32% 0.20% 3.84% 3.03% 4.08% 8.03% 5.26% 0.00% 9.30% 0.67% 1.14% 1.53% 1.31% 0.75% 3.90% 1.36% 0.26% 12.30% 9.17% 2.13% 10.10% 1.72%
Natural Heritage Areas
Forestry
Wind Farms
Special Protection Areas
Urban Areas
Special Areas of Conservation
Figure 10 Locating potential future Bioenergy areas
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Images & Links

Images of all TSO connected non wind generators and also individually gathered and input into excel. Other notable generators such as Arklow Banks (Irelands only offshore wind farm) were included in this process. Where available, a link with further information on the generator was also input into excel. This information could later be used in the information windows as shown:
Figure 11 Adding images and links to information windows
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Building the Database

With all the required information in excel format the database could be constructed. Firstly segregation at desktop level was completed whereby the information required for each layer in each scenario was compiled. This resulted in twenty separate excels, four for each scenario. One for each of the following: Wind Non Wind Biomass & Forestry Hydro & Pumped Storage
Each of these was uploaded through Google Documents as a Google Fusion Table. The database creation and management structure are outlined below.
Figure 12 Creation of online database
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Database Subcategorised Fusion Tables
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Mapping Method 1 Google Maps

Google Maps is a free online mapping service application provided by Google. Its strengths lie in its accuracy, compatibility and user friendly interface. These strengths have been identified by the general public with the Google maps site becoming the most dominant mapping resource available online. Google Maps has been widely integrated into society through software applications, satellite navigation systems and other online and mobile tools. Initial work was done to utilise the Google Maps platform to graphically represent Irelands current energy generation. This was unsuccessful however. The lack of automation associated with generating markers and polygons in Google Maps resulted in a significant amount of time and effort being dedicated to creating each map. This lack of automation also applied to associating data with each point. If any changes to the data were required, there were no features that permitted universal alterations. For example, if the colour of the Spring Oil Seed Rape polygons we required to be green and not yellow as shown, each entry would have to be edited individually. Given the scale of the data collected, it became apparent that such a method was unfeasible.
Figure 13 Limitations of standard Google Maps
There were also significant limitations to the amount of data that could be displayed by a single map. Standard Goggle Maps only allow 100 data points to be displayed simultaneously. Taking the above as an example, the information is displayed across four separate pages. Although there are over 400 points of which only 100 are displayed at any given time. If the user were to choose to view page two, the points on screen would disappear. As Irelands energy generation comes from a significantly greater amount of locations this limitation also suggested alternative methods of mapping were required.
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Method 2 BatchGeo
A software programme was needed that would process significant amounts of locations and map them on a Google map. Not only this, the programme was also required to attach the locations associated information and be able to sort the locations according to a parameter chosen by the user. For example, in the case of wind generators, when creating energy maps it may be necessary to sort the wind farms by their Status (i.e.: Connected, Contracted etc) or by their Gate Number. Designing a programme such as the one described would in itself be a significant and worthy final year project. However a programme called BatchGeo that fit the description required was found online. The programme is free and accessible to the general public: http://batchgeo.com/. The version online however, is the basic version, with the option of paying a monthly subscription in order to avail of the pro version. The advantage of the pro version is limited however as there are no notable additional mapping capabilities. The pro version does provide support the mapping of up to 15,000 data points at a time, six times what's possible in the free version, but for the purpose of this project this feature would not be required. The basic version was tested and found to meet a lot of the criteria. However, the resulting maps generated from BatchGeo were not directly imported into a personal Google Maps account; they were hosted on the BatchGeo website. While this was an obstacle, it was still possible to generate an editable Google map by downloading the .kml file of the hosted map. This file contained all the additional information of the online map. As mentioned previously, Google Maps has the ability to accept .kml files and display the data. The following is a flowchart that surmises this method: Excel Sheet BatchGeo Online Map .kml file Google Map
Figure 4 Batchgeo process flow
There were however limitations to this method. The .kml file imported into Google Maps encountered the same problems as previously seen with using the standard Google Maps platform. Once again, alternative methods of mapping were required.
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Method 3 Javascript API & Fusion Tables SQL

Javascript API Focus was narrowed on a solution that would deliver the necessary requirements; firstly the ability to edit large data-sets efficiently and secondly to display a range of different datasets on maps simultaneously. Extensive research led to the realisation that this was possible through online data storage and the implementation of computer code to access and display the stored data. Although the standard Google maps available online did not meet the project requirements, Google provides developers with a more comprehensive and advanced method for creating and customising Google Maps; Google Maps Javascript API, of which we used the latest version V3. The API provides a number of utilities for manipulating and adding content to maps, even allowing you to create robust map applications. In addition, the JavaScript API V3 is a free service for developers. The Google Maps Javascript API lets you embed Google Maps in your own web pages. Version 3 of this API is especially designed to be faster and more applicable to mobile devices, as well as traditional desktop browser applications. Thus, not only were the fundamental requirements satisfied by Javascript API but the scope for customisation and sharing capabilities were greatly enhanced. Fusion Tables SQL Creating an online database provided an accessible resource. Research was conducted into online storage such as MySQL. However, Google Fusion Tables SQL was chosen as the online location because of its storage and structuring capacities but primarily because of its integration with Google Maps Javascript API. The Google Fusion Tables SQL API is a set of statements that is primarily utilised to retrieve Google Fusion Tables data. It can also be employed to search for data, insert new data, update existing data, and delete data. The API statements are sent to the Google Fusion Tables server using HTTP GET requests for queries and POST requests for inserts, updates, and deletes from a Web client application. The API is language agnostic: This meant that any language could be used, as long as it provided some way to embed the API calls in HTTP requests [12] Each fusion table could therefore represent data as a layer on a Google Map. Furthermore styling of each fusion table could be altered efficiently. For example the following map displays one fusion table; Connected, Contracted and Applicant wind farms in Ireland. However, this fusion table has visually been subdivided by associating different coloured icons to the wind farms by their Connection status.
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Figure 14 Wind farm Fusion table displayed on a map
Data sets could also be sub divided into colours by associating the relevant CSS code with its fusion table entry. In addition to this, the functionalities of fusion tables offer the ability to customise the information associated with each data point. For example, the images and links collected during the data gathering process could be manually embedded into the information windows with simple html:
Figure 15 Customising data in Fusion tables
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Step by Step Basic Javascript API & Fusions Tables SQL Integration The following method creates a basic Google map, employing fusion tables and Javascript API
A web page was first created using html in Notepad++;
Figure 15 Creating a webpage using html
Javascript was embedded into the html to generate a blank Google map, ie; calling the Google map platform through its API:
Figure 16 Embedding Javascript into the html
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The code created the following web page that can be opened on any internet browser. The complete functionalities of a Google Map are present.
Figure 17 Webpage creation
The customised fusion tables were then queried and displayed as separate layers. For example the following code calls one fusion table; Reference 139529 and sets it as a layer for display on the map.
Figure 18 Querying and displaying Fusion table data
Multiple fusion table layers can be called onto any one map. The maximum amount of data possible to display at any one time is five fusion table layers with a maximum size of 250MB for each table. The information window and style associated with each fusion was also customised within the fusion table itself as described earlier.
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A legend was created and the html page styled (See next page for full description on styling)
<INSERT MAP>
Figure 19 Creating a legend
Result
The result is a fully functioning Google map embedded on the developers own web page, displaying five separate layers of data. These layers are completely customisable and can be subcategorised. Through the Google maps Javascript API code further manipulation of the data and users interaction is available to the developer. Furthermore, as it is already in the form of a webpage, and its data hosted live its integration online is seamless. And finally, because Fusion Tables render all the data online, the entirety of the data is loaded by the users browser almost instantly.
Figure 20 Fully functioning Google map created
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Page Styling & Format

The following template was developed for each of the maps page styling and formatting. Variations were developed in order to cater for different browsers. This code was also altered to view the maps on mobile devices such as the Apple iPad.
Styling Background & creating the Header
Defining the text
.CSS Styling
Running the functions as the page loads & assigning the map to the div.
Figure 21 Webpage styling and formatting
Cascading Style Sheets (CSS): A style sheet language used for describing the presentation semantics (the look and formatting) of a document written in a markup language. Its most common application is to style web pages written in HTML.
All coding Aside
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Google Earth
Google Earth maps the Earth by the superimposition of images obtained from satellite imagery, aerial photography and GIS 3D globe. It can also be used to display 3D models, with guided tours created to display information on its contents. The Google Earth software is installed on the users own computer and is available offline. These beneficial features justify its inclusion in mapping Irelands current and future energy use. In conjunction with Google Maps, Google Earth is a valuable aid in conveying Irelands Energy Use. Model Creation Accurate 3D models of Irelands generation stations can be created through Google Sketch software. The location of the models can be imported from Google Earth, with the ability to display terrain and landscape if desired. With accurate satellite pictures, it is possible to place the model in its exact position. Once the model is in place with the desired location it can then be imported back into Google Earth. This procedure was completed for a number of wind farms in Ireland such as Kilgarvan and Kilbranish. Detailed 3D models of conventional energy generation stations such as coal and gas plants can also be designed. This project also includes models for numerous non renewable generators in Dublin such as Poolbeg, North Wall, Dublin Bay & Shellybanks.
Figure 22 Google sketch model created
Video-Tours Creating video tours in Google Earth enhances the users ability to visualise Irelands energy generation. The feature of circumnavigating the country while exploring the locations and 3D models provides the user with a unique and compelling visual experience that cannot be replicated by Google maps. Once created these videos can be shared, published and embedded into presentations or web pages via YouTube, two of which were created for this project and can be viewed on the CD and the projects accompanying presentation also on the CD.
Figure 23 Youtube video created:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJJaoseQyQk
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Chapter 3 - Results
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3. Results
1 Irelands Current Energy Generation
2020 Reference
16% RES by 2020
20% GHG emissions reduction for non-ETS by 2020
95% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050
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1. Irelands Current Energy Generation

At present Ireland has an installed electricity generation capacity of 8GW, consisting of a combination of fossil fuel power stations and renewable energy generators. The vast majority of Irelands renewable energy is sourced from wind farm installations situated around the country. There are currently over 140 wind farms in the country, with a combined installed capacity of 1.6GW.
Table 6 Irelands Current E-T-H demand
Electricity Biogas and Waste Coal & Peat Gas Hydro Oil Storage Wind Total
GW 0.04 1.22 3.80 0.23 1.02 0.29 1.60 8.21
Transport Total Fuel Consumption
ktoe 3435
Heat Thermal TFC
ktoe 5744
Renewable Energy Share According to the 2012 NREAP progress report Ireland has an overall Renewable Energy Share (RES) of 5.5%. This consists of RES-E of 14.8%, RES-T of 2.4% and RES-H of 4.4%. The breakdown of Irelands RES is displayed in table 2 below. [9]
Table 7 Irelands Current RES
Current RES-E (14.8%) Biogas and Waste Hydro Wind RES-T (2.4%) Biodiesel Electricity RNW RES-H (4.4%) Biomass Geothermal
ktoe 9.49 45.22 366.40 50.0 2.0 226.4 0.2
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Figure 24 Irelands Current Energy Generation Map coding
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2. 2020 Reference
The 2020 Reference Scenario sees a slight increase in the installed electricity generation capacity from the current level. The decommissioning of a number of oil and gas powered generators is offset by an increase in installed wind capacity. The installed wind capacity rises greatly from 1.6GW to 2.5GW, with almost 200 wind farms in the country.
Table 8 2020 Reference Scenario E-T-H demand
Electricity Biogas and Waste Coal Gas Hydro Oil Storage Wind Total
GW 0.04 1.19 3.29 0.23 0.70 0.29 2.50 8.25
Transport Total Final consumption
ktoe 4581.7453
Heat Thermal TFC
ktoe 5812.418
2. 2020 Reference
Renewable Energy Share

Table 9 2020 Reference Scenario RES
2020 Reference RES-E (24.4%) Biogas and Waste Hydro Wind RES-T (3.5%) Biodiesel Biogas Electricity RNW RES-H (11.3%) Biomass Geothermal
ktoe 9.50 45.22 572.75 54.7 164.2 4 610.4 0.2
Comparison of 2020 Reference Scenario to Current situation The large increase in installed wind capacity has the effect of increasing RES-E to 24.4%. The addition of Biogas in the transport sector enables RES-T to increase to 3.5%. An increase in Biomass is responsible for the increase of RES-H to 11.3%
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Discussion The Reference Scenario for 2020 falls short of Irelands RES targets. None of the individual sector targets are met. Although the electricity sector has the largest renewable energy share with 24.4%, it is still 15.6% short of the 40% target. The Heat sector shows the most promise, and is only 0.7% short of the 2020 RES-H target of 10%. RES-T shows little improvement from the current level, with an overall increase of only 1.1% to 3.5%. The shortfall for all sectors is clearly evident in the table 5 below.
Table 10 2020 Reference Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets
2020 Electricity Transport Heat
Target 40 10 12
Actual 24.4 3.5 11.3
Difference -15.6 -6.5 -0.7
Although this Scenario does not meet Irelands RES targets for any sector a large area of land is still used. 1.2% of the countrys forestry area and over 980 km2 of crop space are used for heating purposes. A total of 1723.221km2 of crop space is also dedicated to growing rape seed and starch crops for the transport sector. In total 2788km2 is dedicated to the provision of renewable energy for the Heat and Transport sectors. Despite this, both sectors do not meet the RES targets.
2. 2020 Reference
Table 11 2020 Reference Scenario land area
Total area for Reference 2020 Res-H Biomass Wood Total Res-T ktoe 303.6 306.917 ha 98227.32 8275 km2 982.2732 82.75 1065.023 km2 697.8333 1025.388 1723.221 2788.244 Source Willow & Miscanthus Forestry
Biodiesel Biogas Total Total area (Indigenous) No imports
ktoe 64 162
ha 69783.33 102538.8
Source Rape Seed Starch crops
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2. 2020 Reference
Figure 25 2020 Reference Scenario Map coding
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2. 2020 Reference
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3. 16% RES by 2020

The 2020 16% RES Scenario has a larger installed electricity generation capacity than the 2020 Reference Scenario, with an increase of 1.35GW. The installed wind capacity also rises from 2.5GW to 3.81GW, with almost 250 wind farms in the country. The thermal Total Final Consumption (TFC) is lower than the level in the 2020 Reference Scenario.
Table 12 16% RES 2020 E-T-H demand
GW 0.09 1.19 3.29 0.23 0.71 0.29 3.81 9.60
Transport Total Fuel Consumption
ktoe 4594
Heat Thermal TFC
ktoe 5531.974
3. 16% RES by 2020

Table 13 16% RES Scenario 2020 RES
2020 REN-16 RES-E (37.5%) Biogas and Waste Hydro Wind RES-T (7.7%) Biodiesel Biogas Electricity RNW RES-H (18.4%) Biomass Geothermal
ktoe 29.85 45.22 886.60 110.5 232.1 4 1017.0 0.2
Comparison of 16% RES Scenario to 2020 Reference Scenario The large increase in installed wind capacity has the effect of increasing RES-E to 37.5%. Increase in Biogas and Biodiesel in the transport sector enables RES-T to increase to 7.7%. An increase in Biomass is responsible for the increase of RES-H to 18.4% Submitted By: Peter Duffy & Shane McCarthy Supervised By: Dr. Brian Gallachir
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Discussion In this Scenario the 16% RES target is achieved, however the distribution of renewable energy through the sectors differs to the NREAP targets. TIMES models and simulates according to least cost and thus indicates that it will be cheaper for Ireland to meet its 16% target by focusing on the RES-H and exceeding the NREAP target of 12% for this sector. This Scenario does not meet the targets for RES-E or RES-T however. It is important to note that in addition to Irelands 16% RES target for 2020 there is an additional obligatory target that 10% of all transport energy must come from renewable sources. Although this Scenario meets the 16% RES target it does not meet the additional target for transport energy.
Table 14 16% RES Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets
Target 40 10 12
Actual 37.5 7.7 18.4
Difference -2.5 -2.3 6.4
In order to meet Irelands 16% RES target a substantial area of land must be dedicated to the provision of renewable energy. 2.25% of the countrys forestry area and over 1000 km2 of crop space are used for heating purposes. The energy yield per km2 is noted to be far higher for forestry than that for Willow & Miscanthus, thus if land area was considered a priority the use of forestry products may become more popular. A total of 2678km2 of crop space is dedicated to growing rape seed and starch crops for the transport sector. This suggests that the high energy density of forestry land area will enable forestry to play a key role in helping Ireland meet future renewable energy targets. In total 3877km2 is dedicated to the provision of renewable energy for the Heat and Transport sectors.
Table 15 16% RES Scenario land area
3. 16% RES by 2020
Total area for REN-16 2020 Res-H Biomass Wood Total Res-T Biodiesel Biogas ktoe 111 232 ha 121030.4688 146845.6538 ktoe 449.6 567.4197 ha 104558.976 15300 km2 1045.58976 153 1198.58976 km2 1210.304688 1468.456538 2678.761226 3877.35 Source Rape Seed Starch crops Source Willow & Miscanthus Forestry
Total Total area (Indigenous) No imports
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3. 16% RES by 2020
Figure 26 16% RES Scenario 2020 Map coding
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3. 16% RES by 2020
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4. 20% GHG emissions reduction for non-ETS by2020

The 2020 20% GHG Emissions Reduction for Non-ETS Scenario has a larger installed electricity generation capacity than the 2020 Reference Scenario, with an increase of 0.75GW. The installation of a number of gas generators is responsible for this increase, with 700MW of such plant being installed. A large increase in energy from renewable sources was seen in the transport sector.
Table 16 20% GHG 2020 Scenario E-T-H demand
GW 0.04 1.19 4.04 0.23 0.70 0.29 2.50 9.00
Transport Diesel Electricity Gasoline Others Renewable Total Fuel Consumption
ktoe 2,481 15 1,857 8 557 4,918
Heat Thermal TFC
ktoe 5397.649

Table 17 20% GHG 2020 Scenario RES
2020 NETS RES-E (20.9%) Biogas and Waste Hydro Wind RES-T (11.4%) Biodiesel Biogas Bioethanol Electricity RNW RES-H (15.8%) Biomass Geothermal
ktoe 0.12 45.22 572.75 282.8 188.6 85.7 5 851.4 0.2
Comparison of 20% GHG Scenario to 2020 Reference Scenario Electricity generated from Renewables remains the same, however overall installed electricity capacity increases thus RES-E decreases to 20.9%. A large increase in Biodiesel coupled with the introduction of Bioethanol to the transport sector enables RES-T to increase to 11.4%. An increase in Biomass is responsible for the increase of RES-H to 15.8%
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Discussion In this Scenario the 20% GHG emissions reduction target for Non-ETS is achieved. Both the NREAP targets for RES-E and RES-H are also exceeded, however RES-E is over 19% below the target of 40%. The TIMES models and simulates according to least cost and thus indicates that it will be cheaper for Ireland to meet its 20% GHG emissions reduction target by focusing on the transport and heating sectors.
Table 18 20% GHG 2020 Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets
Target 40 10 12
Actual 20.9 11.4 15.8
Difference -19.1 1.4 3.8 4. 20% GHG emissions reduction for non-ETS by2020
In order to meet Irelands 20% GHG NETS target a substantial area of land must be dedicated to the provision of renewable energy. 1.88% of the countrys forestry area and over 877 km2 of crop space are used for heating purposes. A total of 2842km2 of crop space is dedicated to growing rape seed and starch crops for the transport sector. In order to meet this target 5.3% of Irelands land area will be dedicated to the growth of energy crops. It is important to note that 6.34PJ of Biodiesel must be imported in this Scenario. This equates to almost 1650 km2 of land abroad being dedicated to the growth of rape seed for the production of Biodiesel to be consumed in Ireland. 334 km2 of land abroad must also be set aside for starch crops which Ireland will import for energy use in the transport sector.
Table 19 20% GHG 2020 Scenario land area
Total area for NETS 2020 Res-H ktoe ha Biomass 377.1 87704.651 Wood 473.87 12778 Total Res-T ktoe ha Biodiesel 131.68735 143587.2234 Biogas 189 119628.5714 Bioethanol 33.215057 21023.64974 Total Total area (Indigenous) Imported (All for transport) PJ ha Biodiesel 6.34 164985.9537 Bioethanol 2.21 33410.51504 Total area (Imported) Total area (Indigenous + Imported)
km2 877.0465 127.78 1004.8265 km2 1435.8722 1196.2857 210.2365 2842.3944 3847.2209 km2 1649.8595 334.10515 1983.9647 5831.1856
Source Willow & Miscanthus Forestry
Source Rape Seed Starch crops Starch crops
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Figure 27 20% GHG 2020 Scenario Map coding
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Imports
Imports
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5. 95% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050

The 2050 95% CO2 emissions reduction Scenario has a much larger installed electricity generation capacity than any of the Scenarios based in 2020, with an increase of 14.5GW on the 2020 Reference Scenario. In order to meet this ambitious target all coal, peat and oil generating stations have been decommissioned. The TFC for the Transport sector decreased by almost 1300 ktoe compared to the 2020 Reference, with the majority of energy in this sector now also coming from renewable sources. The thermal TFC in the Heat sector also decreased by almost 3300 ktoe, with a large focus on renewable sources.
Table 20 95% CO2 Emissions Reduction by 2050 Scenario E-T-H demand
Electricity Biogas and Waste Coal & Peat Gas Hydro & Ocean Oil Storage Wind Wood Total
GW 0.47 0.00 4.39 0.34 0.00 0.29 14.40 2.46 22.35
Transport Diesel Electricity Gasoline Others Renewable Total Fuel Consumption
ktoe 36 230 41 0 3,001 3,308
Heat Thermal TFC
ktoe 2526.304359

Table 21 95% CO2 Emission Reductions by 2050 Scenario RES
2020 REN-16 RES-E (99.4%) Biogas and Waste Hydro & Ocean Wind Wood RES-T (90.8%) Biodiesel Biogas Bioethanol Electricity RNW RES-H (88.2%) Biomass Geothermal Solar
ktoe 185.82 103.54 3605.19 1336.29 2707.9 240.1 53.1 135.5 2245.5 23.9 34.1
As there is a large difference between the 2050 95% CO2 Emissions Reduction Scenario and the 2020 Reference Scenario it will be discussed in more detail then than the previous scenarios analysed.
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RES-E The vast majority of electricity is supplied by wind farms, with over 370 wind farms across the country having a combined installed capacity of 14.4GW. There is also a large contribution from wood, with 2.46GW of electricity generated from wood products. Biogas and Waste also play a greater role in electricity generation, contributing 0.47 GW. This Scenario is the only scenario in which there is a contribution from wave energy devices. The extra 0.11GW is sourced from three wave farms situated off the West coast of Ireland. These locations visible on the map have been chosen based on the research conducted by the ESBI All island grid study report. [15] Although at present such wave devices are not commercially viable it is anticipated that by the year 2050 they will be more reliable and a viable electricity source. This Scenario is the first scenario which sees a large volume of wood used to generate electricity, with 2.46GW of electricity generated from these wood products. Although this enables Ireland to meet the GHG emissions target for 2050 it is not without its disadvantages, as is seen when the source of these wood products is examined in the maps developed. The only fossil fuel power plants still operational in this scenario are those powered by gas. These plants have lower GHG emissions than traditional plants powered by coal, peat and oil. The combination of the increase in electricity generated from wind and wood coupled with the decommissioning of the majority of the fossil fuel power plants enables Ireland to achieve 99.4% RES-E.
RES-T The majority of energy for the transport sector in this scenario is sourced from biodiesel, with 2707.9 ktoe being consumed. Although in this scenario biodiesel is vital to meet the targets and achieve RES-T of 90.8% it should be noted that sourcing this quantity of biodiesel may be problematic. This is very evident when the map of this scenario is viewed and the land area used for growing energy crops is examined. The issue of sourcing the renewable energy also applies to Bioethanol as this entire energy source is imported.
RES-H The combination of a large reduction in thermal TFC in the Heat sector and a large increase in the quantity of Biomass consumed enables the RES-H to rise to 88.2% in this scenario. Geothermal and Solar also see increases however these are relatively small in comparison to Biomass.
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Discussion In this Scenario the 2050 95% GHG emissions reduction target is achieved. It is also observed that all 2020 NREAP RES targets are well exceeded. Although this may not seem particularly relevant as there is a 30 year gap between the 2020 NREAP targets and 2050, it highlights how ambitious this scenario is in reality. The 2020 NREAP targets are viewed as difficult to achieve, thus exceeding them to such a degree as is seen in this scenario will be very difficult. (RES difference over the three sectors averages 70% greater than 2020 NREAP targets)
Table 22 95% CO2 Emission Reductions by 2050 Scenario RES VS. NREAP targets
2020 Target 40 10 12
2050 Actual 99.4 90.8 88.2
Difference 59.4 80.8 76.2
The scale of the task in achieving this 2050 target is very evident when the land area required for these renewable energy sources are examined on the map accompanying this section. 11,534km2 will be dedicated to growing energy crops in Ireland, this equates to 16.1% of Irelands land area. In addition to this 23,306 km2 of land will be needed abroad in order for Ireland to import the quantity of energy crops and wood products needed to meet the target in this scenario. The map for this 2050 95% GHG emissions reduction Scenario vividly highlights how ambitious the target is.
Table 23 95% CO2 Emission Reductions by 2050 Scenario land area
Total area for 95% Emissions reductions 2050 Res-H Biomass Wood Total Res-T ktoe 1450.0 795.53 ha km2 337205.0232 3372.050232 21446 214.46 3586.510232 Source Willow & Miscanthus Forestry
ktoe ha km2 Biodiesel 693.4205178 756081.174 7560.81174 Biogas 240.1 38709.15735 387.0915735 Total 7947.903314 Total area (Indigenous) 11534.41355 Imported PJ Biodiesel 84.3 Bioethanol 2.21 Wood 156.11 Total area (Imported) ha km2 2196517.081 21965.17081 33624.03147 336.2403147 100537.3 1005.373 23306.78413 34841.19767
Total area (Indigenous + Imported)
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Figure 28 95% CO2 Emissions Reduction by 2050 Scenario Map coding
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Imports 5. 95% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050 Imports
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Chapter 4 - Applications
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4. Applications
The applications for this resource are quite extensive but can be focused on three areas. Education Policy Making Corporate Use
Education
In both formal and informal settings the maps accompanying this report can provide students and the general public with a better understanding of Irelands current of future energy generation. These maps are embedded with detailed information to enrich the user. This information is also quickly and readily accessible through the familiar interface of Google Maps. Above all, it is effortless for these maps to impart their knowledge due to the obvious visual aspect of cartography. Being able to quantify an amount of energy generation with land area and subsequently visualising that space is extremely difficult. These maps bridge that gap and give the user easy to interpret results. Taking the case below for example, the relationship between energy production and land use for different forms of energy becomes apparent to the user instantly:
Figure 29 Associating land area with energy generation
Thus the user is immediately aware of the land area and power generation associated with wind farms and coal plants and is able to compare the two. Accompanying pictures and links to more information on the plant also aid in informing the user.
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Within the European Commissions Energy Road Map 2050, there is a section entitled Engaging the public is crucial [4]. The section explores the social dimensions of the energy roadmap, with the importance of social dialogue in efficiently managing change highlighted. The problems associated with developing new infrastructure, the public disputes arising from new energy technologies and the effect this has on investors in parallel with the risk posed to energy systems is noted. The importance of informing citizens and engaging them in the decision making processes are outlined. These maps would go a long way to informing citizens of their future energy use if utilized by any country. Also, in the conclusion of Irelands National Renewable Energy Action Plan the government directly outlines the importance of the public in delivering the change necessary to meet the ambitious EU targets [7]. The Government does not underestimate the challenge of winning the hearts and minds of local communities, in support of the new infrastructure required to deliver change.
Policy Making
It is imperative that policy makers at the highest level are provided with all the relevant resources available to aid them in making informed decisions regarding how their country should overcome both the environmental and energy challenges they face. According to the Energy Roadmap 2050, there is inadequate direction as to what should follow the 2020 EU agenda and this creates uncertainty among governments, citizens and investors. The delay of investment will result in costs rising and ultimately create larger disruptions in the long term. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2011 the critical role of governments and the need for urgent planning and investment was highlighted [16]. Although it is not possible to predict the long-term future, the scenarios created in the Irish TIMES model and the maps developed in this project can help guide the government in future planning and long term policies relating to energy and emissions. Maps also enable greater communication between government agencies. This is vital as within the NREAP the Government state that Implementing and delivering the NREAP will require enhanced co-ordination and collaboration between all relevant Government and state bodies. Our maps provide a greater means of communication between government agencies, encouraging an integrated approach to energy policy development. A fully joined up and integrated approach, involving all appropriate public sector bodies at national, regional, and local level will be critical for delivery over the next decade.
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Corporate Use
The data gathered for the purpose of this report was extensive. By manipulating this data and presenting it in other forms the project could be extended to a corporate and commercial environment. For example, there are many windfarms in Ireland that have received Gate 3 connection contracts that may never be constructed. These need to be identified by EirGrid as they themselves are unaware which wind farms fall into this category. This was the result of little prerequisite with regards proof of planning when submitting a wind farm application for grid connection, a first come first severed system was employed. However, with the mapping resources developed in this project, a significant step can be made in identifying the wind farms in question. Many planning applications are unsuccessful due to the wind farm being located in a special protection, conservation or natural heritage area (i.e. Restricted area). The following map was therefore created that displays these areas along with all the contracted and application wind farms in Ireland.
Figure 30 Identifying wind farm applications located in restricted areas
As with the standard maps developed the associated wind farm information (including EirGrids Reference Code) is available by simple clicking the on the wind farm marker. With this application EirGrid can potentially search through the map to find windfarms in restricted area and simple click on the wind farm to identify it. The complete accuracy of the source data makes this method accurate also. The inclusion of EirGrids Reference Code makes it even easier for personnel to contact the wind farm owner with regards following up the planning application status.
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Further Development
Automated real time Information: With Google Maps Javascript API automated real time graphs can be embedded into the information windows. If information from EirGrid was available, the trendline of a plants energy production and CO2 emissions could be displayed for the last 24 hrs. Furthermore, the estimated amount of CO2 produced per plant in its lifetime up to that point in time could be displayed to the user. Increased Functionality: The limitations of the functionalities of these maps are constrained only by the time available to the developers. With further time to enhance the potential of Google Maps Javascript API the interaction of the interface with the user can be greatly upgraded. Online Hosting: A designated website will insure ease of access for all. A tool such as this should also be accompanied by a forum for discussion. Promotion and utilization of such a site, if done correctly, would go a long way to informing the public on Ireland Current & Future Energy Generation.
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References
[1] DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 23 April 2009, Accessed at:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0016:0062:en:PDF
[2] Citizens' summary EU climate and energy package, Accessed at:

http://ec.europa.eu/climateaction/docs/climate-energy_summary_en.pdf
[3] EPA, Irelands National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections to 2020, Accessed at:
http://www.epa.ie/downloads/pubs/air/airemissions/projections_publication%20september%202008%20pdf%20%282%2 92.pdf
[4] Energy Roadmap 2050,Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European economic and social committee and the committee of the regions. Accessed at:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/doc/com_2011_8852_en.pdf
[5] The 2009 EU Renewables Directive how binding is binding? September 13th, 2010 by Stuart Hohnen, University of Melbourne
http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2010/09/13/the-2009-eu-renewables-directive-%E2%80%93-how-binding-is%E2%80%98binding%E2%80%99/
[6] EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT Committee on Legal Affairs NOTICE TO MEMBERS (24/2012)

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=COMPARL&reference=PE483.537&format=PDF&language=EN&sec ondRef=01
[7] National Renewable Energy Action Plan Ireland, Accessed at:

http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/NR/rdonlyres/C71495BB-DB3C-4FE9-A725-0C094FE19BCA/0/2010NREAP.pdf
[8] 2009/548/EC: Commission Decision of 30 June 2009 establishing a template for National Renewable Energy Action Plans under Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (notified under document number C(2009) 5174), Accessed at:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32009D0548:EN:NOT
[9] National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) First Progress Report January 2012, Accessed at:
http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/NR/rdonlyres/B611ADDD-6937-4340-BCD67C85EAE10E8F/0/IrelandfirstreportonNREAPJan2012.pdf
[10] National Renewable Energy Action Plan, All member states, Accessed at:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_platform/action_plan_en.htm
[11] All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011- 2028 Henry Philips. Accessed at: http://www.coford.ie/media/coford/content/publications/projectreports/forecast_31Jan11.pdf [12] Woodflow and biomass use on the island of Ireland 2009 Gordon Knaggs and Eoin ODriscoll.
Accessed at:
http://www.envirocentre.ie/includes/documents/Woodflow%202009%20prepublication%20draft.p df
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[13] SEAI bioenergy map, Accessed at: http://maps.seai.ie/bioenergy/ [14] Google Fusion Tables Developers Guide. Accessed at: https://developers.google.com/fusiontables/docs/developers guide [15] All Island grid study, conducted by ESBI. Accessed at: http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/NR/rdonlyres/1B7ED484-456E-4718-A728 97B82D15A92F/0/AllIslandGridStudyStudyOverviewJan08.pdf [16] The International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011. Accessed at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2011/homepage/WEO2011_Press_Launch_London.pdf
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Mapping Irelands Current &amp; Future Energy Generation

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Mapping Irelands Current & Future Energy Generation

Submitted By: Peter Duffy & Shane McCarthy

Supervisor: Brian Gallachir

BE Energy Engineering Final Year Project Module NE4020 March 2012