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# Mathhammer Tactica (or Warhammer Probability 101) To put it simply, Mathhammer is the calculation of probability of an event occur ring

) X 4/6 (remaining probability from first equation) = 8/36 (probability of hitti ng on the second die given that the first die was a miss). Now add them together : 8/36 + 2/6 = 8/36 + 12/36 = 20/36 = ~.56 = ~56%. The probability of a tau gun drone's shot hitting is about 56%. Quick reference for twin-linked or other reroll if failed: 6+ = 31% 5+ = 56% 4+ = 75% 3+ = 89% 2+ = 97% This works for things like feel no pain or anything that has a chance of happeni ng if the first roll fails as well, even though they are individually different probabilities. You still find the probability of the first event failing (which is 1 minus the chance that the first event will succeed) and then still find the probability of the second thing happening out of that. For FNP it's easy since it's 4+ or 50%, you just halve the probability of failing the first save and add that to the first save's probability to figure out your probability for shruggi ng off that wound (so for space marines in power armor with FNP they shrug off 8 3% of the wounds they take, the same as if they had a 2+ armor save like termina tors.) TO HIT/WOUND/SAVES-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Now this is all well and good for determining individual shots or attacks or sav es, but Warhammer is about units fighting. For many rolls, just multiply the pro bability of each individual result happening by how many dice you're rolling to get how many times it's probably going to happen overall. How many BS 3 lasgun s hots are probably going to hit out of 20 being fired? .50 (which is 50%) X 20 = 10. Actually killing enemy models takes more than just hitting though. Each shot has a chance to hit, a chance to wound, and a chance to get shrugged off by the tar get's armor. To find the probability of a shot or attack actually wounding the t arget, you take the probability of hitting, the probability of wounding, and the probability of them failing their saving throw, and multiply them all together. If rerolls aren't involved (no twin-linked, preferred enemy, FNP, master-crafte d, etc.) then there's an easy way to figure this out based on the idea that 3 fr actions all with a denominator of 6 (probability of hitting, wounding, and faili ng save) multiplied together will have a denominator of 216 (6 X 6 X 6). So take how many faces on each roll will be successful, multiply them together, and the n divide by 216 We'll use a marine sergeant (BS 4) firing a bolt pistol (strength 4) at a chaos marine (toughness 4, armor save 3+) as the example. BS 4 means 4 faces of the di e will be successful (3,4,5,6), strength 4 vs. toughness 4 means that 3 faces of the die will be successful (4,5,6), and armor save 3+ means that 2 faces of the die that the chaos player rolls will be unsuccessful (1,2). 4, 3, and 2 faces. 4 X 3 X 2 = 24. 24/216 = ~.11 = ~11%. How many BS 3 bolter shots therefore will it take to kill a chaos space marine? Instead of dividing 24 (or whatever number you got by multiplying hit, wound, and failed save together) by 216, divide 216 by 24 and this gives you how many shots/attacks it will take on average. 9 in t his case. 8 bolter marines and a sergeant with bolter will on average kill 2 cha os space marines from 12" or fewer away (2 shots each due to rapid fire, so 18 s hots, which is twice as many shots as it takes to kill a CSM on average). This is known as the 216 method, and was taught to me by the mathhammer blog htt

te what direction it's likely to go (all directions being equally likely), we ca n calculate its chance of landing on target or its chance of landing near enough to a target to hit it. Once again I direct you to the mathhammer blog for a goo d explanation so I don't have to type out my own Using these general principles you should be able to calculate The probability o f chance or failure. You can simulate 2 forces meeting in combat with some accur acy, and have an idea of what your forces can take on even if you've never faced a particular unit before. Now let's talk about mitigating this all with point cost. Which unit is more eff ective for its points? There are many things that go into this but killing power certainly is one. To figure out how many points you're paying to get a particul ar result on average the formula goes like so: (cost of shooting thing)/(number of shots)/(rate of hitting)/(rate of getting re sult) example: for the hydra flak tank shooting at armor 10 and getting a penetrating hit 75/4/.75/.5 = 50 Doing the math hydras are 150 points to get a penetrating hit on average vs. AV 12 and 75 for any roll on the vehicle damage table. Vendettas are 115.6 points t o get a penetrating hit and 87.5 points to get any roll on the table. Against AV 10 hydras are 50 points per penetrating hit and 37.9 points for any roll on the vehicle damage table while vendettas are 69.4 points per penetrating hit and 57 .8 points for any roll on the table.

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