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INDEX
Index........................................................................................................................................................................1
What is Global Warming?........................................................................................................................................6
Warming Now—Temperature Trends......................................................................................................................7
Warming Now—Glaciers.........................................................................................................................................8
Warming Now—Glaciers.........................................................................................................................................9
Warming Now—Glaciers.......................................................................................................................................10
Warming Now—Glaciers.......................................................................................................................................11
Warming Now—Glaciers.......................................................................................................................................12
Warming Now—Glaciers.......................................................................................................................................13
Warming Now – Ice ..............................................................................................................................................14
Warming Now—Hurricanes..................................................................................................................................15
Warming Now—Hurricanes .................................................................................................................................16
Warming Now—Hurricanes..................................................................................................................................17
Warming Now—Severe Weather...........................................................................................................................18
Warming Now—Migration Patterns......................................................................................................................19
Warming Now—Migration Patterns......................................................................................................................20
Warming Now—Changing Rainfall Patterns.........................................................................................................21
Warming Now—Droughts.....................................................................................................................................22
Warming Now—Flooding.....................................................................................................................................23
Warming Now—Wildfires.....................................................................................................................................24
Warming Now—Wildfires ....................................................................................................................................25
Warming Now—Seasonal Changes.......................................................................................................................26
Warming Now—Hydrological Cycle.....................................................................................................................27
Warming Now—Ice Core Data..............................................................................................................................28
Warming Now – Ice Core Data..............................................................................................................................29
Warming Now—Satellite Thermometers ..............................................................................................................30
Warming Now—Ecological Changes....................................................................................................................31
Warming Now—Mosquitoes/Malaria....................................................................................................................32
Warming Now—Tree-rings ..................................................................................................................................33
Warming Now—Sea Levels...................................................................................................................................34
Warming Now—Species Adaption and Extinction................................................................................................35
Warming Now—Coral Reef Bleaching.................................................................................................................36
Warming Now—Cholera.......................................................................................................................................37
Warming Now—GRACE Satellites.......................................................................................................................38
Warming Now—Multiple Warrants.......................................................................................................................39
Warming Now – Multiple Warrants.......................................................................................................................40
Warming Now – Multiple Warrants.......................................................................................................................41
Warming Now – Multiple Warrants.......................................................................................................................42
Warming Now – Multiple Warrants.......................................................................................................................43
Warming Now - IPCC............................................................................................................................................44
Warming Now - IPCC............................................................................................................................................45
Warming Now - IPCC............................................................................................................................................46
Warming Now – Models........................................................................................................................................47
Warming Now/Humans cause warming................................................................................................................48
Warming Now/Humans cause warming................................................................................................................49
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Humans cause warming.........................................................................................................................................50
Humans cause warming.........................................................................................................................................51
Humans cause warming.........................................................................................................................................52
Humans cause warming.........................................................................................................................................53
Humans Cause Warming—Temperature Anomaly................................................................................................54
Humans Cause Warming—IPCC...........................................................................................................................55
Humans Cause Warming—IPCC...........................................................................................................................56
Humans Cause Warming—Low Carbon Models...................................................................................................57
Humans Cause Warming—Low Carbon Models...................................................................................................58
Humans Cause Warming—Low Carbon Models...................................................................................................59
Humans Cause Warming—Low Carbon Models...................................................................................................60
Humans Cause Warming—CO2............................................................................................................................61
Humans Cause Warming—CO2............................................................................................................................62
Humans Cause Warming—Emissions...................................................................................................................63
Humans Cause Warming—Empirically Proven....................................................................................................64
Humans Cause Warming—Burning Fossil Fuels..................................................................................................65
Cutting Emissions Now Will Stop Warming.........................................................................................................66
Cutting Emissions Now Will Stop Warming.........................................................................................................67
Cutting Emissions Now Will Stop Warming ........................................................................................................68
US Key...................................................................................................................................................................69
Rate Manageable....................................................................................................................................................70
Rate Manageable....................................................................................................................................................71
Rate Manageable....................................................................................................................................................72
Impact—Environment............................................................................................................................................73
Impact—Environment............................................................................................................................................74
Impact—Weather...................................................................................................................................................75
Impact—Weather ..................................................................................................................................................76
Impact—Weather ..................................................................................................................................................77
Impact—Hurricanes ..............................................................................................................................................78
Impact—Crop Failure............................................................................................................................................79
Impact—Crop Failure ...........................................................................................................................................80
Impact—Crop Failure ...........................................................................................................................................81
Impact—Crop Failure............................................................................................................................................82
Impact—Coral Reefs.............................................................................................................................................83
Impact—Coral Reefs.............................................................................................................................................84
Impact—Coral Reefs.............................................................................................................................................85
Impact—Coral Reefs.............................................................................................................................................86
Impact—Coral Reefs.............................................................................................................................................87
Impact—Coral Reefs ............................................................................................................................................88
Impact—Coral Reefs.............................................................................................................................................89
Impact—Phytoplankton ........................................................................................................................................90
Impact—Biodiversity.............................................................................................................................................91
Impact—Biodiversity............................................................................................................................................92
Impact—Biodiversity.............................................................................................................................................93
Impact—Biodiversity.............................................................................................................................................94
Impact—Biodiversity.............................................................................................................................................95
Impact—Biodiversity ............................................................................................................................................96
Impact—Biodiversity ............................................................................................................................................97
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Impact—Temperature...........................................................................................................................................98
Impact—Temperature............................................................................................................................................99
Impact—Sea Levels.............................................................................................................................................100
Impact—Arctic Melting.......................................................................................................................................101
Impact—Arctic Melting.......................................................................................................................................102
Impact—Water Scarcity.......................................................................................................................................103
Impact—Water Scarcity ......................................................................................................................................104
Impact—Water Scarcity.......................................................................................................................................105
Impact—Water Scarcity.......................................................................................................................................106
Impact—Agriculture............................................................................................................................................107
Impact—Agriculture............................................................................................................................................108
Impact—Agriculture............................................................................................................................................109
Impact—Agriculture............................................................................................................................................110
Impact—Agriculture............................................................................................................................................111
Impact—Insects...................................................................................................................................................112
Impact—Livestock...............................................................................................................................................113
Impact—Livestock...............................................................................................................................................114
Impact—Insurance...............................................................................................................................................115
Impact—Insurance ..............................................................................................................................................116
Impact—Insurance ..............................................................................................................................................117
Impact—Insurance ..............................................................................................................................................118
Impact—Insurance ..............................................................................................................................................119
Impact—Economy...............................................................................................................................................120
Impact—Economy...............................................................................................................................................121
Impact—Economy ..............................................................................................................................................122
Impact—Economy ..............................................................................................................................................123
Impact—Infrastructure.........................................................................................................................................124
Impact—Infrastructure.........................................................................................................................................125
Impact—Market Destabilization ........................................................................................................................126
Impact—Arctic Conflict......................................................................................................................................127
Impact—Russian Dominance .............................................................................................................................128
Impact—Resource Wars......................................................................................................................................129
Impact—Failed States..........................................................................................................................................130
Impact—Proxy Wars............................................................................................................................................131
Impact—India/Pakistan........................................................................................................................................132
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................133
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................134
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................135
Impact—Conflict ................................................................................................................................................136
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................137
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................138
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................139
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................140
Impact—Conflict.................................................................................................................................................141
Impact—Mass Migration.....................................................................................................................................142
Impact—Mass Migration.....................................................................................................................................143
Impact—Mass Migration.....................................................................................................................................144
Impact—Mass Migration.....................................................................................................................................145
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Impact—Mass Migration.....................................................................................................................................146
Impact—Food Security........................................................................................................................................147
Impact—Health Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................148
Impact—Disease Spread......................................................................................................................................149
Impact—Disease Spread......................................................................................................................................150
Impact—Malaria .................................................................................................................................................151
Insurance/Economy Impact.................................................................................................................................152
Disease Impact.....................................................................................................................................................153
Hypercanes/Extinction Impact.............................................................................................................................154
Biodiversity Impact..............................................................................................................................................155
Genocide Impact..................................................................................................................................................156
Genocide Impact .................................................................................................................................................157
Outweighs Impacts...............................................................................................................................................158
Outweighs Nuke War...........................................................................................................................................159
Outweighs Nuke War...........................................................................................................................................160
Outweighs Nuke War...........................................................................................................................................161
Outweighs Nuke War...........................................................................................................................................162
Outweighs Prolif/Terrorism.................................................................................................................................163
A2: Adaptation.....................................................................................................................................................164
A2: Adaptation.....................................................................................................................................................165
A2: Adaptation.....................................................................................................................................................166
A2: Adaptation.....................................................................................................................................................167
A2: Adaptation.....................................................................................................................................................168
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................169
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................170
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................171
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................172
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................173
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................174
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................175
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................176
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................177
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................178
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................179
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................180
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................181
A2: Carbon Fertilization......................................................................................................................................182
A2: Warming is Irreversible.................................................................................................................................183
A2: Urban Warming/Urban Heat Islands.............................................................................................................184
A2: Models are Inaccurate...................................................................................................................................185
A2: Models are Inaccurate—Turn: Warming is Worse than We Thought...........................................................186
A2: Species Will Adapt........................................................................................................................................187
A2: Solar Forcing................................................................................................................................................188
A2: Solar Forcing (Mars).....................................................................................................................................189
A2: Faculae/Sun causes warming........................................................................................................................190
A2: Cosmic rays/Cloud Clumping.......................................................................................................................191
A2: Oceans Check CO2 Warming.......................................................................................................................192
Michaels/Balling/Sherwood/Idso Indict..............................................................................................................193
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Singer/Michaels/Idso/Balling Indict....................................................................................................................194
Singer Indict.........................................................................................................................................................195
Michaels Indict.....................................................................................................................................................196
Balling Indict.......................................................................................................................................................197
Idso Indict............................................................................................................................................................198
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Global warming is a process in which the burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, acting as a blanket that warms the Earth
Sir John Houghton, Co-chair of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and
formerly Chief Executive of the Meteorological Office, 2005 (“Global Warming” Reports on Progress in Physics Volume 68 June
2005 pp. 1343-1403)
‘Global warming’ is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal,
oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of ‘greenhouse gases’, of which
the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface and act as blankets over the
surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the
‘greenhouse effect’ that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the
climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely
characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and
intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks
within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of
its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is
the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their
magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world’s scientific and political communities. Because of the
need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy
sources.
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Over the last century and especially from the 1990’s, a distinct overall warming trend has become
apparent.
Sir John Houghton, Co-chair of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and
formerly Chief Executive of the Meteorological Office, 2005 (“Global Warming” Reports on Progress in Physics Volume 68 June
2005 pp. 1343-1403)
For the last 140 years, direct instrumental data have been available that enable a construction to be made of changes in the global near-
surface air temperature [7] (figure 6(a)). The increase in temperature over the 20th century is particularly striking. The 1990s are very
likely to have been the warmest decade during this period and the year 1998 the warmest year. A more striking statistic is that each of
the first eight months of 1998 was the warmest of those months in the record. Although there is a distinct overall trend, the increase is
by no means uniform. In fact, some periods of cooling as well as warming have occurred and an obvious feature of the record is the
degree of variability from year to year and from decade to decade. An obvious question to ask is whether the effects of human
activities are significant against the background of natural variability. In section 6 (figure 17), this question is addressed together with
the likely reasons for the 20th century trends.
Across the globe, rising temperatures are setting record highs--the rates of warming are also increasing
Diwakar Poudyal, Master of Science in Agricultural Economics and Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in
Nepal, 2007 (“Towards Curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal’s Contribution to Make a Difference” Journal of Agriculture and
Environment Volume 8 2007 pp. 133-144)
In Europe, South America, Australia or else where the following kind of evidence is drawn. In Southeast Europe and Middle East the
temperatures reached as high as 43.8 oC in locations across Turkey, Greece, Romania, Italy, and Bulgaria. In Bulgaria, 100-year
records for daily maximum temperature were broken at more than 75% of the observing stations on July. For Armenia, 2000 was the
hottest summer of the century with widespread heat wave in July- August 2000.. Jordan reported the longest stretch of summer heat in
its 77-year record (NCDC, 2000; WMO, 2000/, 2001). Continental Europe warmed 0.8 oC during the past century, with the last
decade being the warmest on record (IPCC, 2001b). In Germany temperatures were as much as 4 oC above average (WMO, 2002a)
with warmest October on record, 2001. The record-breaking temperatures occurred in the context of a warming trend of 0.8 oC over
continental Europe during the past century. Over the 20th century Central England temperature warmed by about 0.5 oC with warmest
October on record, 2001. Four of the five warmest years in the 343-year record occurred in the last decade (Hulme, 1999). In
Australia, an average annual temperature increase of 0.5-1.0 oC per decade over the past century (Collins, 2002; Reuters 2002) with
warmest April on record, 2002 was noted. There has also been an increase in warm days and a decrease in cold winter days. The
temperature in the high plateau region in extreme southeastern Peru also raised 2 oC, from an average of 9 oC in the 1960s to 11 oC in
2001 (Inter-Press Service, 2001). In Tropical Andes (Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and northernmost Chile) the average annual temperature
increased by about 0.1 oC per decade since 1939. The rate of warming doubled in the last 40 years, and more than tripled in the last 25
years, to about 0.33 oC per decade (Vuille and Bradley, 2000).
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WARMING NOW—GLACIERS
As temperatures rise, glaciers all over the world are receding dramatically, and some are entirely
disappearing—proves warming is real
Diwakar Poudyal, Master of Science in Agricultural Economics and Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in
Nepal, 2007 (“Towards Curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal’s Contribution to Make a Difference” Journal of Agriculture and
Environment Volume 8 2007 pp. 133-144)
The Khumbu Glacier, popular climbing route to the summit of Mt. Everest, has retreated over 5 km since 1953 (UNEP, 2002). Since
the Himalayan region overall has warmed by about 1 oC since the 1970s, glaciers in the Himalayas like else where are retreating. The
average rate is 15 m per year (Geological Survey of India, 1999). It is consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan
climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the Baspa glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter
temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter (Kulkarini et al., 2002). As Himalayan glaciers melt glacial
lakes are swelling and in danger of catastrophic flooding eminent. The average glacial retreat for Bhutan was 30-40 m per year
(ICIMOD, 2002). Glaciers in Patagonia in Argentina have receded by an average of almost 1.5 km over the last 13 years (Wessels et
al., 2001; Painter, 2001). There has been an increase in maximum, minimum, and average daily temperatures of more than 1 oC over
the past century in southern Patagonia, east of the Andes. Since 1947 Australia's 34 glaciers (Heard Island) have decreased by 11% in
area and 12% in volume, with half the loss occurring in the 1980s. Air temperature has risen 0.7 oC between 1947 and 2001 (Pockely,
2001; Reuters, 2001a). During 1959-1988, 1,081 glaciers in the Pamir-Altai disappeared with increased temperatures in the mountains
of Kyrgyztan by 0.5-1.5 oC since the 1950s (UNEP, 2000). Similarly of the six glaciers in the Venezuelan Andes in 1972, only 2
remain, and scientists predict that these will be gone within the next 10 years (OSU, 2001). Glaciers in the mountains of Colombia,
Ecuador, and Peru show similar rapid rates of retreat (Schubert, 1999). Temperature records in other regions of the Andes show a
significant warming of about 0.33 oC per decade since the mid-1970s (Vuille and Bradley, 2000). Pity enough, the ice of the Mount
Kilmanjaro of Tanzania is projected to disappear by 2020. 82% of its ice has already disappeared since 1912, with about one-third
melting in just the last dozen years. At this rate, all of the ice will be gone in about 15 years (OSU, 2001). Scientists hypothesize that
less snow on the mountain during the rainy season decreases the surface reflective ness, leading to higher rates of absorption of heat
and increased ice melt (Hardy, 2002). Similarly, since the 1990s, glacier area of Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda has decreased by about
75% (Kaser, 1999).
Glaciers are retreating right now all over the world—in conjunction with disrupted snowmelt, the threat
to water security is great
T. P. Barnett et al, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California, 2005 (“Potential impacts of
a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions” Nature 438:7066 11/17/05 pp. 303-309)
Two examples of impacts on glaciers. The results for the regional water resources case studies discussed above and the simple physics
behind them seem likely to be qualitatively reproduced in virtually all regions where snowmelt is important to local water availability6
and where annual runoff exceeds storage capabilities. Our results in the western USA suggest that even more serious problems may
occur in regions that depend heavily on glacial melt water for their main dry season water supply. This is because, once the glaciers
have melted in a warmer world, there will be no replacement for the water they now provide, in contrast to the present snow-pack-
dependent water supply that is renewed seasonally. In this case, the natural storage of fossil water in the glaciers has even more
importance than seasonal storage in just the snow pack. It is well documented that glaciers are in retreat over most (but not all) of the
world1,38,39, so the threat here seems both real and immediate—a situation also well documented in the world’s press over the
past several years.
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WARMING NOW—GLACIERS
Warming near the poles has been most severe—melting permafrost and reduced ice shelves are causing
serious problems
Diwakar Poudyal, Master of Science in Agricultural Economics and Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in
Nepal, 2007 (“Towards Curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal’s Contribution to Make a Difference” Journal of Agriculture and
Environment Volume 8 2007 pp. 133-144)
Parts of Canada, Alaska, Siberia, and the Antarctic have been experiencing warming well above the global average for the past few
decades. This trend fits climate model predictions for a world with increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Melting permafrost is
forcing the reconstruction of roads, airports, and buildings and is increasing erosion and the frequency of landslides. Reduced sea ice
and ice shelves, changes in snowfall, and pest infestations have affected native plants and animals that provide food and resources to
many people.
Over the past 150 years, glaciers have been shrinking and some have almost disappearing—models
predict continuing melting and water scarcity
Diwakar Poudyal, Master of Science in Agricultural Economics and Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in
Nepal, 2007 (“Towards Curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal’s Contribution to Make a Difference” Journal of Agriculture and
Environment Volume 8 2007 pp. 133-144)
Glaciers melting can be taken as one of the most serious consequence of global warming in so far Nepal is concerned. The upward
shift in snow line and melting aspect of glaciers makes Nepal a directly highly vulnerable country to suffer from the climate change
due to actions exercised else where. Globally, over the past 150 years, the majority of mountain glaciers monitored have been
shrinking. Many glaciers at lower latitudes are now disappearing, and scientists predict that, under some plausible warming scenarios,
the majority of glaciers will be gone by the year 2100. As glaciers continue to shrink, summer water flows will drop sharply,
disrupting an important source of water for irrigation and power in many areas that rely on mountain watersheds.
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WARMING NOW—GLACIERS
In the Himalayas, substantial melting has already occurred and melting rates are accelerating
T. P. Barnett et al, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California, 2005 (“Potential impacts of
a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions” Nature 438:7066 11/17/05 pp. 303-309)
Himalaya–Hindu Kush region. Perhaps the most critical region in which vanishing glaciers will negatively affect water supply in the
next few decades will be China and parts of Asia, including India (together forming the Himalaya–Hindu Kush (HKH) region),
because of the region’s huge population (about 50–60% of the world’s population). The ice mass over this mountainous region is the
third-largest on earth, after the Arctic/Greenland and Antarctic regions. The hydrological cycle of the region is complicated by the
Asian monsoon, but there is little doubt that melting glaciers provide a key source of water for the region in the summer months: as
much as 70% of the summer flow in the Ganges and 50–60% of the flow in other major rivers40,41,42. In China, 23% of the
population lives in the western regions, where glacial melt provides the principal dry season water source43.
There is little doubt that the glaciers of the HKH region are melting and that the melting is accompanied by a long-term increase of
near surface air temperature (ref. 44 and Figs 2.9 and 2.10 in ref. 1), the same level of warming we saw impacting the western USA.
After 25 years of study, the China Glacier Inventory was recently released45. It showed substantial melting of virtually all glaciers,
with one of the most marked retreats in the last 13 years (750 m) of the glacier that acts as one of the major sources of the Yangtze
River, the largest river in China. In total, it is estimated that the entire HKH ice mass has decreased in the last two decades.
Furthermore, the rate of melting seems to be accelerating46.
The few analytical studies that exist for the region suggest both a regression of the maximum spring stream-flow period in the annual
cycle by about 30 days (ref. 47) and an increase in glacier melt runoff by 33–38% (ref. 48). These numbers seem consistent with what
is being observed and bear striking similarities to the stream-flow results from the western USA. The huge inconsistency, however,
occurs in the impacts on local water supplies. In the western USA, model-predicted impacts are already being seen in the hydrological
cycle. The models suggest that the impacts will appear as a long-term trend in snow amount and runoff. But in the HKH region, there
may (for the next several decades) appear to be normal, even increased, amounts of available melt water to satisfy dry season needs.
The shortage, when it comes, will likely arrive much more abruptly in time; with water systems going from plenty to want in perhaps
a few decades or less.
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WARMING NOW—GLACIERS
Steadily warming air and ocean temperatures are melting glaciers across North America
Diwakar Poudyal, Master of Science in Agricultural Economics and Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in
Nepal, 2007 (“Towards Curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal’s Contribution to Make a Difference” Journal of Agriculture and
Environment Volume 8 2007 pp. 133-144)
The continent of Africa warmed by 0.5 oC during the past century, and the five warmest years in Africa have all occurred since 1988.
Similarly in the north Americas, the Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rockies has retreated 0.5 km in the last 60 years and has
thinned dramatically since the 1950s-60s (State of the Canadian Cryosphere, 2002). In British Columbia the Wedgemont Glacier
retreated hundreds of meters since 1979, as the climate warmed at a rate of 1.1 oC per century, twice the global average (BC Ministry
of Water, Land, and Air Protection, 2002). In Alaska a study of 67 glaciers showed that between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s the
glaciers thinned by an average of about 0.5 m per year. Repeat measurements on 28 of those glaciers show that from the mid-1990s to
2000-2001 the rate of thinning had increased to nearly 1.8 m per year (Arendt et al., 2002). Alaska has experienced a rapid warming
since the 1960s. Annual average temperatures have warmed up to 1 oC per decade over the last three decades, and winter warming
has been as high as 2 oC per decade (Alaska Regional Assessment Group, 1999). Similarly there has been a Rapid thinning of the
Greenland ice sheet in coastal areas, especially of outlet glaciers, as was measured in two studies during the 1990s (Krabill et al.,
2000). The coastal land ice loss is attributed to a combination of warming-driven factors, including increased melting during warmer
summers, high snow accumulation rates feeding the outlet glaciers, and increased rates of melting at the bottom of glaciers due to
ocean warming (Rignot and Thomas, 2002).
High greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change that is melting ice caps now—high elevations
like Nepal are warming the most
Diwakar Poudyal, Master of Science in Agricultural Economics and Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in
Nepal, 2007 (“Towards Curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal’s Contribution to Make a Difference” Journal of Agriculture and
Environment Volume 8 2007 pp. 133-144)
Why the ice is melting? The primary answer is factors that increase earth's warmth are in more active mode and the factors responsible
to bring down temperature are lesser than desired at work. The economic development, modernization or industrialization with little
care on the consequences toward mother earth's atmosphere, land, water, bio-diversity and production and consumption pattern that
has been resulting to emission of greenhouse creating and ozone depleting type of gases and is the cause of climate change and
increased warmth and hence melting ice. Excessive damage of forests, unplanned development of cities, towns and rural areas with
more of congestion, over use of resources than is required pose issues as all these cause warming. Below is a summary of what has
been reported on such factors in more recent decades.
Taking Nepal as a case, in the last three decades the average air temperature measured at 49 stations rose by 1 oC, with high elevation
sites warming the most (Shrestha et al., 1999). This was twice as fast as the 0.6 oC average warming for the mid-latitudinal Northern
Hemisphere 24 to 40 o.N over the same time period indicating that there is high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change.
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WARMING NOW—GLACIERS
Ice atop mountains and glaciers are melting with increasing speed, driving up sea levels
Richard A. Kerr, PhD in chemical oceanography and recipient of the Geological Society of America Public Service Award, 2006 (“A
Worrying Trend of Less Ice, Higher Seas” Science 311:5768 03/24/06 pp. 1698 – 1701)
HAVE AN URGE LATELY TO RUN FOR higher ground? That would be understandable, given all the talk about the world's ice
melting into the sea. Kilimanjaro's ice cloak is soon to disappear, the summertime Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by century's end,
11,000-year-old ice shelves around Antarctica are breaking up over the course of weeks, and glaciers there and in Greenland have
begun galloping into the sea. All true. And the speeding glaciers, at least, are surely driving up sea level and pushing shorelines inland.
Scientists may not be heading for the hills just yet, but they're increasingly worried. Not about their beach houses being inundated
anytime soon; they're worried about what they've missed. Some of the glaciers draining the great ice sheets of Antarctica and
Greenland have sped up dramatically, driving up sea level and catching scientists unawares. They don't fully understand what is
happening. And if they don't understand what a little warming is doing to the ice sheets today, they reason, what can they say about
ice's fate and rising seas in the greenhouse world of the next century or two?
The speed with which ices sheets are shrinking is taking climatologists by surprise
Richard A. Kerr, PhD in chemical oceanography and recipient of the Geological Society of America Public Service Award, 2006 (“A
Worrying Trend of Less Ice, Higher Seas” Science 311:5768 03/24/06 pp. 1698 – 1701)
That uncertainty is unsettling. Climatologists know that, as the world warmed in the past, "by some process, ice sheets got smaller,"
says glaciologist Robert Bindschadler of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in Greenbelt, Maryland. But "we didn't know
the process; I think we're seeing it now. And it's not gradual." Adds geoscientist Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University, "The
time scale for future loss of most of an ice sheet may not be millennia," as glacier models have suggested, "but centuries."
Many glaciers in Greenland are doubling that pace at which they recede, some to 13 kilometers per year
Richard A. Kerr, PhD in chemical oceanography and recipient of the Geological Society of America Public Service Award, 2006 (“A
Worrying Trend of Less Ice, Higher Seas” Science 311:5768 03/24/06 pp. 1698 – 1701)
The truly disturbing ice news of late is word that some of the ice oozing from the 3-kilometer-thick pile on Greenland has doubled its
speed in just the past few years. In the 17 February issue of Science, for example, radar scientists Eric Rignot of the Jet Propulsion
Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and Pannir Kanagaratnam of the University of Kansas, Lawrence, analyzed observations made
between 1996 and 2005 by four satellite-borne radars. These synthetic aperture radars measure the distance to the surface during
successive passes over a glacier. The changing distance can then be extracted by letting successive observations form interference
patterns. The changing distance, in turn, translates to a velocity of the ice toward the sea.
In central east Greenland, Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier more than doubled its speed from 2000 to 2005, Rignot and Kanagaratnam found,
from 6 kilometers per year to 13 kilometers per year. That made it the fastest in Greenland. To the south, Helheim Glacier accelerated
60%. And on the west of Greenland, Jakobshavn Isbrae almost doubled its speed between 1996 and 2005. The accelerations are
"actually quite surprising," says glaciologist Julian Dowdeswell of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom. Even at its
slower speed, Jakobshavn had ranked as one of the fastest-flowing glaciers in the world, perhaps the fastest; now it's just one of the
pack.
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WARMING NOW—GLACIERS
It would take Los Angeles two centuries to use as much water as has been lost from Greenland glaciers
Richard A. Kerr, PhD in chemical oceanography and recipient of the Geological Society of America Public Service Award, 2006 (“A
Worrying Trend of Less Ice, Higher Seas” Science 311:5768 03/24/06 pp. 1698 – 1701)
As glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet are picking up speed, researchers are realizing that nothing has made up for the increased
loss of ice. Greenland's pile of ice is getting smaller. How much smaller is still being debated, if only because of the vast scope of an
ice sheet. What goes out through glaciers is just one part of the equation: Ice sheets also lose mass by melting and gain it from
snowfall. To gauge those gains and losses, Rignot and Kanagaratnam used previously published estimates of how the warming climate
over Greenland has increased meltwater losses and slightly increased snowfall, making for a growing net loss in addition to the glacier
flow. All told, the scientists find that the loss of mass from Greenland doubled from 1996 to 2005, reaching 224 ± 41 cubic kilometers
per year. Los Angeles uses 1 cubic kilometer of water per year.
It is clear that Greenland’s glaciers are melting—multiple scientists agree
Richard A. Kerr, PhD in chemical oceanography and recipient of the Geological Society of America Public Service Award, 2006 (“A
Worrying Trend of Less Ice, Higher Seas” Science 311:5768 03/24/06 pp. 1698 – 1701)
All things considered, it seems clear that "Greenland has been shifting to a negative mass balance the last few years," says glaciologist
Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University in State College. The same can be said for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. All recent
surveys have the far more massive East Antarctic Ice Sheet slowly gaining mass from increased snowfall. But that gain falls far short
of compensating for the loss from West Antarctica. There, Zwally's analysis has the ice shrinking by about 47 cubic kilometers per
year. And Velicogna and Wahr, writing in this week's issue of Science (p. 1754), report a GRACE-estimated loss of about 148 cubic
kilometers per year. In West Antarctica, as in Greenland, the culprit is the acceleration of outlet glaciers in recent years (Science, 24
September 2004, p. 1897).
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WARMING NOW—HURRICANES
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have almost doubled in the last thirty years as CO2 levels rose, just as
simulations predicted—proves warming is happening now
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WARMING NOW—HURRICANES
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have increased significantly as ocean temperatures have risen
Since 1995, warming in the North Atlantic has increased the frequency and intensity of hurricanes
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WARMING NOW—HURRICANES
Oceans are rising and warming and water vapor is increasing--all fuel to intensify hurricanes, a panel of
hurricane specialists finds
Climate change is warming the oceans and raising sea levels—evidence is mounting to prove that this is
causing more severe hurricanes
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Changing temperatures correlate with earlier bird breeding and migration in Europe and North America
—multiple studies validate
Tøttrup et al2006 Journal of Avian Biology
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The first and last birds are all migrating earlier already—study confirms
Tøttrup et al2006 Journal of Avian Biology
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Over the past fifty years, increased greenhouse gas emissions have greatly raised global average
temperature—precipitation and severe weather have also increased
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WARMING NOW—DROUGHTS
Global warming has already caused severe droughts in Asia and the Middle East
Droughts and high temperatures are producing more severe fires, and lakes are even disappearing
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WARMING NOW—FLOODING
As predicted by climate models, global warming is increasing rainfall, and severe flooding is the result
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WARMING NOW—WILDFIRES
Global warming is being felt now—longer, more intense wildfires in the US and Canada prove
Running2006 Science
Global warming is causing earlier snow melting, leaving periods of dry ground that spawn more intense
wild fires
Running2006 Science
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WARMING NOW—WILDFIRES
In the past decades, precipitation has decreased, leading to much larger wildfires.
Running2006 Science
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Global warming is already reducing snowmelt and pushing maximum stream flow earlier—this early
water will be lost to the ocean
Barnett et al,2005 Nature
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McConnell et al2007 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Monbiot6
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Science
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WARMING NOW—MOSQUITOES/MALARIA
The WHO estimates that climate change is causing 150,000 deaths a year from malaria—global warming
is causing mosquitoes to spread in higher elevations
Stone and John writer and
contributor to Science, (“ Science
Mosquitoes are extending their ranges and biting later into the winter due to warming autumns
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WARMING NOW—TREE-RINGS
The twentieth century was the warmest of the millennium and temperatures are rising significantly—
temperature records, ice core data, and tree-rings prove
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WARMING NOW—CHOLERA
A study in Bangladesh finds that climate change is affecting cholera prevalence
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The UN considers an Adaption Fund to aid those hit by the problems of climate change—disease,
drought, erosion, and rising sea levels
Stone and John writer and
contributor to Science, (“ Science
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Pittock5
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Pittock5
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Jaccard et al.2
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Pachauri8Global Warming
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Pittock5
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Jaccard et al.2
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WARMING NOW/HUMANS CAUSE WARMING
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Monbiot6
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Monbiot6
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King4Science
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The UN climate change panel IPCC just announced that global warming is the result of human activity—
migrations and receding glaciers can be seen already
Kerr, 2007Science
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According to two climate models, lower levels of greenhouse gases would lower temperatures and expand
sea ice
2008
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2008
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Human emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere are substantially raising CO2 levels and driving a rise in
global temperature as a result
DeLucia et al2008 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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CO2 levels are skyrocketing due to human economic activity—this is the largest human contributor to
climate change
Canadell et al2007 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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According to the IPCC, we can reach an important stabilization target if we substantially reduce carbon
emissions by 2050
Moriarty and Honnery
2008
Energy Policy
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A new approach to climate change is needed soon to avoid dangerous warming impacts—climatologists
agree
Doniger et al2006 Science
It is vital that we begin emissions reductions soon—the longer we wait the faster we have to reduce our
emissions to avoid the CO2 threshold
Doniger et al2006 Science
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Enkvist2008McKinsey Quarterly
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US KEY
Harris, 2000
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RATE MANAGEABLE
Easterbrook6The Atlantic
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RATE MANAGEABLE
Hansen6Social Research
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RATE MANAGEABLE
Pearce7NewScientist
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IMPACT—ENVIRONMENT
Lieberman07
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IMPACT—ENVIRONMENT
Brown08
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IMPACT—WEATHER
Castaldi07
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IMPACT—WEATHER
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—WEATHER
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—HURRICANES
Castaldi07
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IMPACT—CROP FAILURE
Smithand Vivekananda
07
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IMPACT—CROP FAILURE
Lee08
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IMPACT—CROP FAILURE
PetzoldtSeaman07
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IMPACT—CROP FAILURE
DPC 08
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IMPACT—CORAL REEFS
Beeby08
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IMPACT—CORAL REEFS
Beeby08
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IMPACT—CORAL REEFS
Haworth08
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
IMPACT—CORAL REEFS
Haworth08
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
IMPACT—CORAL REEFS
Haworth08
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IMPACT—CORAL REEFS
EPA 07
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IMPACT—CORAL REEFS
EPA 07
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IMPACT—PHYTOPLANKTON
CostelloMaslin08
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IMPACT—BIODIVERSITY
CostelloMaslin08
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IMPACT—BIODIVERSITY
Highfield08
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IMPACT—BIODIVERSITY
Swain08
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IMPACT—BIODIVERSITY
Ahlstrom08
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IMPACT—BIODIVERSITY
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IMPACT—BIODIVERSITY
Brown08
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IMPACT—BIODIVERSITY
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—TEMPERATURE
Brown08
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IMPACT—TEMPERATURE
Brown08
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IMPACT—SEA LEVELS
Brown08
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IMPACT—ARCTIC MELTING
Brown08
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IMPACT—ARCTIC MELTING
BorgersonMarch/April08
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IMPACT—WATER SCARCITY
TuckerMarch/April08
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IMPACT—WATER SCARCITY
Brown08
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IMPACT—WATER SCARCITY
EPA 07
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IMPACT—WATER SCARCITY
Brown08
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IMPACT—AGRICULTURE
EPA 07
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IMPACT—AGRICULTURE
Skeptics are wrong—climate change devastates agriculture and overwhelms any possible benefits.
Cline08
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IMPACT—AGRICULTURE
Cline08
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IMPACT—AGRICULTURE
Aslam07
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IMPACT—AGRICULTURE
EPA 07
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IMPACT—INSECTS
PetzoldtSeaman07
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IMPACT—LIVESTOCK
FAO07
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IMPACT—LIVESTOCK
DPC 08
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IMPACT—INSURANCE
Collins07
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IMPACT—INSURANCE
Brown08
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IMPACT—INSURANCE
Brown08
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IMPACT—INSURANCE
Stern, 08
33
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IMPACT—INSURANCE
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—ECONOMY
Brown08
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IMPACT—ECONOMY
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—ECONOMY
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—ECONOMY
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—INFRASTRUCTURE
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—INFRASTRUCTURE
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—MARKET DESTABILIZATION
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—ARCTIC CONFLICT
BorgersonMarch/April08
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IMPACT—RUSSIAN DOMINANCE
BorgersonMarch/April08
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IMPACT—RESOURCE WARS
Smithand Vivekananda07
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IMPACT—FAILED STATES
Lovell08
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IMPACT—PROXY WARS
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—INDIA/PAKISTAN
Lynas07
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
The Guardian 07
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Smithand Vivekananda07
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Smithand Vivekananda07
consequences of consequences
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Smithand Vivekananda07
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Smithand Vivekananda07
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Smithand Vivekananda07
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Smithand Vivekananda07
adapt
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Lovell08
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IMPACT—CONFLICT
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—MASS MIGRATION
The Guardian 07
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IMPACT—MASS MIGRATION
Smithand Vivekananda07
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IMPACT—MASS MIGRATION
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—MASS MIGRATION
Brown08
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IMPACT—MASS MIGRATION
Reuveny07
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IMPACT—FOOD SECURITY
Smithand Vivekananda07
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IMPACT—HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE
Burke08
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IMPACT—DISEASE SPREAD
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—DISEASE SPREAD
Stern, 08
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IMPACT—MALARIA
Climate change increase spread of malaria
Stern, 08
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INSURANCE/ECONOMY IMPACT
Insurance is the driving sector in the world economy, and is the most threatened by climate change.
Odell07
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DISEASE IMPACT
Even conservative estimates concede that a global epidemic will kill over 100 million people—no other
threat compares in likelihood or lethality
Falkenrath6
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
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HYPERCANES/EXTINCTION IMPACT
Publication:
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BIODIVERSITY IMPACT
Biodiversity is crucial to preventing a global extinction
Schlickeisen00
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GENOCIDE IMPACT
Climate change causes a culture genocide of native peoples.
Young07
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GENOCIDE IMPACT
Genocide outweighs all other impacts and should be prioritized–It kills more people than any other
possible impact.
Fishman04
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OUTWEIGHS IMPACTS
Burke08
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Christoff08
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Lovell08
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Lovell08
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Mabey08
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OUTWEIGHS PROLIF/TERRORISM
Mabey08
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A2: ADAPTATION
CostelloMaslin08
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A2: ADAPTATION
Cline08
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A2: ADAPTATION
Aslam07
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A2: ADAPTATION
EPA 07
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A2: ADAPTATION
EPA 07
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Brown08
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Stern, 08
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Stern, 08
et al. et al.
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Stern, 08
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Cline08
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Aslam07
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Wolfe07
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Wolfe07
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Ziska
07
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Ziska
07
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PetzoldtSeaman07
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EPA 07
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High CO2 levels and rising temperatures increase insect damage to plants—empirically proven
DeLucia et al2008 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Urban warming is so small that it has not really exaggerated global warming trends
Parker2006 Journal of Climate
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A2: MODELS ARE INACCURATE
Generally, climate sensitivity predictions have been accurate—if anything sensitivity may be greater than
we though
Risbey2008Global Environmental Change
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
Models have not taken into account the physics of glacial disintegration—melting is worse than models
suggested
Risbey2008Global Environmental Change
We have already reached certain melting thresholds that were not predicted to be reached for some time
Risbey2008Global Environmental Change
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
Pounds et al2006Nature
A study concludes that two species of amphibians went extinct because global warming boosted bacteria
growth
Pounds et al2006Nature
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
Newsweek 2007
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
Pearce7NewScientist
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
Pearce7NewScientist
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
Jaccard et al.2
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
MICHAELS/BALLING/SHERWOOD/IDSO INDICT
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
SINGER/MICHAELS/IDSO/BALLING INDICT
GelbspanThe Philadelphia BulletinThe Washington PostThe Boston Globe ExxonMobil: The Skeptics' New Patron
08
including S. Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, Robert Balling and Sherwood Idso.
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ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
SINGER INDICT
GelbspanThe Philadelphia BulletinThe Washington PostThe Boston Globe ExxonMobil: The Skeptics' New Patron
8
ballin
ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
MICHAELS INDICT
GelbspanThe Philadelphia BulletinThe Washington PostThe Boston Globe ExxonMobil: The Skeptics' New Patron
8
ballin
ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
BALLING INDICT
GelbspanThe Philadelphia BulletinThe Washington PostThe Boston Globe ExxonMobil: The Skeptics' New Patron
8
ballin
ZAREFSKY JUNIORS 2008 GLOBAL WARMING BAD
IDSO INDICT
GelbspanThe Philadelphia BulletinThe Washington PostThe Boston Globe ExxonMobil: The Skeptics' New Patron
8
ballin