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Contents
European Market Review ............................................................. 4 Asset Allocation ............................................................................. 4 Performance Review and Outlook ............................................. 6 Strategy Performance Details.....................................................16 Table of Benchmarks ..................................................................45
2Q 2011 1.89 0.47 1.01 0.30 2.68 0.98 1.56 3.51 1.56 3.41 0.48 -1.48 -0.98 -1.15 2.70 1.91 3.53 1.91 2.85 0.10 1.86 -0.50 3.42 0.10 2Q 2011 3.15 3.33 3.03 4.03 3.35 4.14
YTD 2011 6.66 5.29 3.41 2.59 6.94 5.58 4.98 7.31 4.98 1.85 -3.97 3.15 0.70 0.88 3.80 2.96 4.52 2.96 7.40 6.02 10.35 5.92 7.02 6.02 YTD 2011 4.86 3.89 5.53 5.09 6.09 6.94
* Returns for one of the accounts in the composite are based on estimated market values for the period from and including October 2008 through February 2009. ** Returns for the composite are based on estimated market values for the period from and including October 2008 through February 2009.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. A GIPS compliant presentation is available at www.gmo.com. Copyright 2011 by GMO. All rights reserved. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted, in whole or in portion, by any means, without written permission from GMO.
Inception Currency Date 6/30/88 6/30/04 7/31/01 12/31/93 3/31/87 2/28/89 USD USD USD USD USD USD
2Q 2011 2.22 0.98 2.33 0.74 1.59 1.59 2.86 0.24 3.21 0.47 3.16 0.02 2Q 2011 -0.71 0.02 8.15 0.02 0.53 0.10 1.78 0.10 -0.32 0.10 1.23 0.10 0.08 0.02 3.72 0.02 -2.04 0.02 1.41 0.02
YTD 2011 5.00 4.04 4.48 3.76 3.03 4.35 6.51 4.81 6.84 5.29 7.36 6.22 YTD 2011 1.80 0.06 1.86 0.06 0.83 0.20 2.81 0.20 0.95 0.20 5.84 0.20 1.21 0.06 -0.27 0.06 1.74 0.06 1.44 0.06
Inception Currency Date 9/30/00 9/30/04 3/31/96 7/31/03 8/31/05 3/31/06 2/28/02 3/31/02 8/31/07 10/31/02 USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD
YTD Value Added 1.74 1.80 0.63 2.62 0.75 5.64 1.15 -0.33 1.68 1.38
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. A GIPS compliant presentation is available at www.gmo.com.
GMO Allocation
Cash & Special Equivalents Situations 2.1% 3.7% Alpha Only 17.0% Asset Allocation Bond 2.7% Emerging Country Debt 0.5% Strategic Fixed Income 10.7% Domestic Bond 2.5% Emerging Markets 12.1% Flexible Equities 3.3%
Quality 23.1%
Asset Allocation
Review
Throughout the first four months of 2011, investors around the globe continued to climb a wall of worry, with their speculative zeal trumping any and all concerns surrounding a nasty brew of poor employment numbers, worsening housing markets, rising commodity prices, and dysfunctional European parliaments. And, lets not forget the rolling series of civil wars in the Middle East
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Note: Asset Allocation ranges are 20% for U.S. and international equities and -10%/+15% for fixed income.
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
5
Treasuries and their negative yields. No, there are still plenty of investors willing to stay at the speculative feast, but we have pushed ourselves away from the table. Our broad strategies are: Emphasize Quality stocks. While one month doth not a trend make, Mays substantial market pull-back was illustrative of what we expect to be a string of market movements over the coming year. The market witnessed a wake-up call, if you will, to the worrisome sets of crises globally. The laundry list of worries the looming end of QE2 most notably has been known for some time, yet the urgency of them somehow spooked the markets starting in May. With that, we witnessed a sizable rotation into Quality. Our Quality Strategy outperformed the S&P 500 by over 330 basis points, as the appeal of highly profitable and stable, unlevered business models suddenly trumped animal spirits. We dont believe this rotation is anywhere near complete. Nor do we believe that the list of worries is by any means checked off. Far from it. Therefore, we happily maintain our Quality bias. Maintain exposure to emerging markets, but with some precise hedging. We remain overweight emerging markets within global equity mandates as they represent a sub-asset class priced to deliver very decent returns. However, the China real estate bubble remains on our watch list, and, where appropriate, we have taken pains to surgically hedge specific areas of the global market that are highly tied to continued growth in Chinese real estate. Specifically, we have hedged direct exposure Chinese real estate developers and banks but we have crafted a custom basket of secondary and tertiary plays on the China bubble days coming to an end (e.g., Australian copper miners and luxury goods manufacturers). Either way, our position remains constructive on the broad universe of emerging equities, but with some serious caveats regarding China.
Strategies
There is, of course, no law that forbids expensive asset classes from becoming more expensive. There are no chiseled tablets forbidding historically low bond yields from going lower. And some bold and courageous investors may want to stay for additional courses. Wall Street is more than willing to provide the investment rationale for such a decision, and CNBC can no doubt line up a healthy roster of yea-sayers to serve up the next dish. But we have other plans. We remain defensive. We remain cautious. We are cognizant that, while valuations are not nearly as stretched as we saw in the summer of 2007, they dance dangerously close. That while the high yield market one of the many canaries in the coal mine is signaling all sorts of speculative froth (from historically low spreads and all manner of dodgy conditions), it is not as bad as it was only four years ago. Faint praise indeed. And lets not get started again on
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
6
Bonds back into very, very expensive territory. The rally in bonds this quarter can be called many things: a flight to safety, a deflation play, etc. We call it the way we see it: already expensive bonds just became more expensive. Our sober forecast for bonds is global in nature, just from a pure valuation perspective. Throw in a good dose of sovereign credit worries and the end of QE2, and you have a whole basket of excuses to, where possible, avoid bonds. Maintain positions in low duration fixed income and cash/cash plus in balanced portfolios. Truth be told, we dont necessarily like holding these low-duration cash instruments given their low yields. Their appeal, then, is not so much that theyre going to make us a ton of money, but rather that they can act as dry powder that we can deploy when expensive assets elsewhere (read: stocks and bonds) get closer to fair value. Yes, these holding are a short-term drag on performance, but the option they provide to put cash to work at better pricing gives us some degree of comfort. Invest in conservative absolute return strategies, where available. Ideally, absolute return strategies are often a pure play on manager skill. Therefore, the return streams should have little correlation to the movements of the markets. Such investment instruments can provide equity-like returns, while helping to diversify other parts of ones portfolio.
Where European troubles highlighted a more generalized risk for U.S. investors that European sovereign debt problems could spill over into U.S. markets domestic economic data during the quarter highlighted a more specific risk for U.S. investors: that a stalled U.S. economic recovery would put a limit on stock returns. During the quarter, U.S. investors fretted over a variety of economic reports showing slowing or stalling in the pace of the economic recovery. From jobs data to manufacturing reports, a slew of widely reviewed economic indicators conspired to tell a not so fast cautionary tale to U.S. investors bidding up stocks in anticipation of a return to pre-recession economic conditions. Hints of a less-than-stellar economic rebound were particularly troubling for stocks and areas of the market perceived most levered to general economic conditions. Indeed, the S&P 500s modest +0.1% quarterly return belied a significant underlying split in returns to risk-taking within equities. Of the 10 GICS economic sectors within the S&P 500, only five posted positive absolute returns during the quarter, with
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
U.S. Equities
Relative Performance of Selected Groups versus the S&P 500 Year-to-Date June 30, 2011
8.0 6.0
Largest 100
Russell 2000
Size
2/11
4/11
6/11
2/11
4/11
6/11
Investment Disciplines
2/11
4/11
6/11
2/11
4/11
6/11
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 12/10
Sectors
-4.0 12/10
2/11
4/11
6/11
2/11
4/11
6/11
Information Technology
Energy
-6.0 12/10
2/11
4/11
6/11
-2.0 12/10
2/11
4/11
6/11
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
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the best performance coming from more defensive areas of the market. Health Care led sector winners, rising 7.8%. Utilities advanced 6.1%, and Consumer Staples gained 5.2%. On the negative side, more economicallyexposed sectors posted negative returns during the period, with Financials (-6.0%) and Energy (-4.7%) leading the decliners. The split in returns to risky areas of the market could also be seen in the returns to a number of investment factors during the period. High quality and low volatility stocks posted strong relative returns, while their low quality and high volatility counterparts lagged the market by similar margins. Momentum metrics also underperformed during the quarter, hurt by their exposure to the economically exposed areas of the market that had performed well recently. Bottom-up valuation metrics delivered mixed relative returns, with those incorporating company quality in their valuation faring the best. Investors distaste for risk was also exhibited in index returns for the quarter, with large cap stocks outperforming mid and small caps.
2%
0%
-2%
In Local Terms In Dollars
Outlook
In the long run, investment returns have three sources: dividends, fundamental growth, and changes in price multiple. There are innumerable factors that influence a companys ability to pay dividends and grow, and the multiple the market is willing to pay for it. But at the heart of a value investment philosophy is an understanding of what is knowable, what is unknowable, the risks to both the known and unknown, and where we derive an edge. Our focus remains on understanding the knowable, acknowledging the unknown, weighing the associated risks, and finding investments trading for less than theyre worth.
-4% EAFE
Japan
In Europe (and elsewhere) the more defensive Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Staples sectors, as well as automotive and retail stocks, drove the outperformance. Large pharma stocks like Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, and GlaxoSmithKline enjoyed gains ranging from 10% to 20%. Although Financials and many riskier industries underperformed, there appeared to be a fairly strong appetite for equities, perhaps stimulated by relatively derisory bond yields. Greece was the worst performing developed market for the quarter, with the MSCI Greece index falling 18% in local terms. It was not a complete wipeout for the PIIGS though, as Ireland was at the other extreme, gaining 5.3%. Germany was the best performing major market, up 4.0% in local terms. While Italy had shown some signs of graduating from the PIIGS acronym (shortened by many commentators to PIGS), that owner of the second I suffered a whiff of contagion,
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
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Growth outperformed Value for the quarter, as defined either by MSCI indices or price/book (though not as defined by analyst consensus forecasts). MSCI EAFE Growth gained 2.1%, while MSCI EAFE Value was up 1.0%. Smaller cap stocks are generally more cyclical, and the MSCI EAFE Small Cap index rose a more modest 0.8%
Outlook
The more the pendulum swings from greed toward fear, the more opportunities there will be for an investor in equity markets. While it would be nice to be able to say things have gone so far as to provide mouthwatering valuations at little downside risk, things are not generally so simple. The good news is that the story of the lack of growth in much of the developed world has become so widespread that virtually none is priced in for many companies that have stellar track records, and so the odds seem in the investors favor. Some of the more distressed parts of the world have fallen severely, and may rebound sharply, but investing there requires something of a gambling mentality. And stocks with clear exposure to growth, most likely from China, tend to be at least fully priced. Still, volatility and fear are friends of prudent investors, so, while the markets in aggregate may not present the valuations we would hope for, there are opportunities within them that excite us.
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
10
ahead with budget cuts. The quarter saw country performances as diverse as an 8.5% jump in Chile and a 15.2% plunge in Peru. Among sectors, the spread was tighter, with Consumer Discretionary leaping 8.3% and Energy dropping 7.4%. Russian Energy underperformed the asset class as the outlook for commodities grew less rosy and concern deepened that tighter monetary policy in Russia would curb economic growth. The central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates in April to check inflation. The central bank had in the past relied on currency gains and higher reserve requirements as its tools in fighting inflation rather than hiking rates. The concerns over the ultimate resolution to Greeces debt crisis, inflation fighting efforts in countries such as China and India, and speculation that U.S. demand may be slowing have all led to a fall in energy prices. Investors in Hungary were cheered by signs of a strengthening global economic recovery. Closer to home, they found comfort in the ongoing talks between the government and commercial banks on ending a moratorium on evictions and stimulating mortgage lending. The market was also influenced by rumors that the government would lower a special tax on banks as part of an agreement with lenders to help distressed borrowers after the moratorium on evictions runs out. The government had relied on temporary industry taxes and the effective nationalization of private pension portfolios to reach budget targets in the past rather than imposing austerity measures directly on the populace. A happy combination of rapid growth, slowing inflation, and low interest rates is boosting domestic spending in Indonesia. The central bank forecasts the economy to grow as much as 6.5% this year, the fastest pace since 2004. However, inflation decelerated, with consumer prices rising 6.0% in May from a year earlier. This has helped convince the central bank to let the benchmark interest rate stay at a near record low of 6.75%.
Outlook
This outlook takes a look at some recent significant political developments in emerging markets. Changes in leadership in these markets often have a greater impact on the macroeconomic policies of a country than they do in developed markets.
Peru Elections
President-elect Humala has put investors on edge by some of his campaign pledges to revise mining contracts and revisit free-trade agreements with the U.S. and other nations. Peru is the worlds largest silver and third largest copper producer. The central bank estimates that mining projects will account for almost half of the $47.5 billion of private investment expected in Peru from 2011 to 2013. While he has praised his one-time ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, in the past, more recently his comments have been peppered with references to the business-friendly policies of Brazil. In a trip to the U.S. after his election, he stated that relations are good, but, We want to improve them during my government. His post-election comments have also included a goal of balancing economic growth with social inclusion. Investors, however, remain uncertain of his policies and eagerly await his first moves once he takes office at the end of July.
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
11
skepticism as to whether they will be a force for moderation or a divisive, fundamentalist element. Protests, though on a much smaller scale, are ongoing in Egypt as activists demand more rapid trials of former government officials and policemen accused of killing protesters in the uprising that toppled Mubarak. In Morocco, the other emerging market in the Middle East, a draft constitution was widely approved in a referendum. The constitution was written at King Mohammeds orders in response to protests that echoed the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. Under the plan, the prime minister will be chosen from the party that wins elections and will replace the king as the head of government. However, the king will retain the power to overrule or dismiss parliament. While many supported it as a significant step toward democratization, others felt that it wasnt close enough to their ideal. Moroccos tradition of greater social freedoms and deeper political participation suggest that this move, while well short of achieving genuine democracy, will probably be enough to deflect the current pressure.
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
12
Total Returns Second Quarter 2011
4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% U.S. Gov't. USD USD Non-U.S. Non-U.S. Bonds Bonds Emerging Bonds: Bonds: (JPM GBI) (Barclays Bonds Developed Emerging U.S. Agg) (EMBIG) (JPM GBI) (JPM GBIEM)
2.5% 2.3% 1.6% 4.0% 3.1% 2.2% Currency Bonds 1.1%
The main exception to this positive bond story continued to be the fallen angels of sovereign bonds, less charitably referred to as PIG (Portugal, Ireland, Greece). Lucky for J.P. Morgans series, none of these countries pertains to its Global Government Bond Index series, which draws the line to include Italy and Spain but not the PIGs. Unlucky for the fallen angels, unless they default, they are ineligible for J.P. Morgans Emerging bond indices, which exclude high income countries unless they default. So, the fallen angels, all at or near junk ratings at quarter end, are homeless from a bond index perspective, compounding woes for the countries in their search for buyers of their debt.
It a ly
an d
an y
ai n
nc
um
ga l rtu
la nd
G er m
Fr a
Sp
lg i
et he r
Be
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
Po
G re
Ire l
ec
13
during the quarter, alternatively buoyed by the ECBs first post-crisis interest-rate increase (and the strong hints of more) and deflated by the ongoing slow-motion sovereign crises in the periphery. During the quarter, the ratings for Greek debt were cut deep into junk; Portugal rested on the edge of junk (and downgraded to below right after quarter end); while Ireland delivered a rather nasty haircut to bank bondholders. In credit markets, emerging debt spreads (EMBIG series) tightened by 10 basis points to 288 basis points during the quarter. Eurozone countries suffered more downgrades from the ratings agencies, which were not convinced by plans to allow Greece to impose losses on bondholders without technically defaulting. CDS spreads on Greece more than doubled to imminent-default levels in line with the CCC/Caa1 ratings. Ireland and Portugal kept their investment-grade ratings through the end of the quarter, although Moodys dropped Portugal to Ba2 immediately afterwards. Liquidity in the emerging cash bond market deteriorated slightly and the average bidoffer spread widened to 67 basis points at the end of the quarter from 62 at the beginning. New issuance of $81 billion fell slightly from the first quarter, but was above the average of the previous four quarters. The biggest index gainers were Ivory Coast (+12.5%), Nigeria (+6.9%), Venezuela (+6.4%), and Uruguay (+6.4%). The Ivory Coast bond continued to rally during the quarter as the internationally-recognized Ouattara administration took office, although it missed another
-0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9
Ne w
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
Ho x ng ico Ko ng Ru ss ia Br az Po il lan d S. Afr Cz ica ec h. Re p. Si n g. Isr ae l Ch ile Ko r Hu ea ng ar Ta y iwa n GB I -E MD Ma lay Th sia ail an d Ch ina Tu rke y
on e Ind
Me
sia
14
coupon without committing to a schedule for making up the overdue payments. Nigerian elections were peaceful by local standards and the re-elected president showed signs of supporting positive reforms in the electricity sector. Venezuelan bonds recovered from earlier losses at the end of June when President Chavez had to be hospitalized in Cuba and was found to have cancer. The Uruguayan economy performed well in the first quarter, and the Central Bank conducted a well-received investor road show. Index laggers for the quarter included Belize (-19.9%), Iraq (-0.2%), Pakistan (+0.2%), and Serbia (+1.4%). The Belize bond collapsed at the end of June when the government nationalized the electric utility, which was not able to pay for imported fuel. Iraq and Pakistan both experienced political conflict well-covered by the media. In asset-backeds, the market generally experienced tightening spreads. According to J.P. Morgan, credit card spreads declined from 22 basis points to 16 basis points, auto spreads from 40 basis points to 32 basis points, and student loan spreads remained flat at 40 basis points. The ABX subprime indices declined sharply quarter-over -quarter, although the final week of June did show improvement. For the quarter, the triple-A Indices were 4% to 14% down in price; however, they finished the quarter 2% to 10% off of their lows.
Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
Tu Ar rkey ge n Th tina ail Ro and ma S. nia Afr ica Ind ia H o Eg y pt ng Ph Ko n ilip g pi Ma nes la GB ysia I -E M Ch D in M a Ind exic on o es Ru ia ss ia Pe ru Isr ae Hu ng l ary Ch Ta ile Sin iwan ga po re C z Ko r ec e h. a Re Po p. lan d Br C o a zi lom l bia
Sw
ed e
15
be worth anything is a different question, one the market seems to be betting negatively about given the dollars near uniform decline. We continue to keep our portfolios tilted toward those currencies, interest-rate, credit markets, and instruments that we believe represent good value. At quarter end that included a continued underweight in the U.S. dollar, both against most G10 currencies and most emerging ones. In developed rates, we moved to overweight duration from underweight, mostly by cutting our substantial Japan underweight and adding a bit to our U.S. overweight. In credit, we still see value in assetbacked securities and emerging debt.
Outlook
At press time, no durable solution had been proposed to either deal with the PIGs issues or contain the fallout from not doing so. We put it in the too hard category to offer a credible opinion about the outcome (other than to say, having lived through a number of such crises in emerging countries, that default isnt the end of the world). Given the number of stakeholders and the chasm that separates their interests, a disorderly outcome cant be ruled out. On the matter of the U.S. debt ceiling, the irresponsible brinksmanship being played out by politicians and pundits in the news masks the more fundamental truth about the looming August deadline: the U.S. has both the willingness and ability to pay its debts in nominal U.S. dollars. Whether these dollars will
-1 9.4
Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are through the period ending June 30, 2011, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security, is not intended to be investment advice and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Please be advised, unless otherwise noted, all returns are in U.S. dollar terms.
B Se elize ne ga l Ira Pa kis q t Se an rbi Ga a Vie bon tn Uk am Ma raine Ar lays ge ia nti Gh na an C a Bu hile Ka lg za aria kh s Ru tan ss i C a Le hina ba n Po o n Sr lan iL d an k So Tur a ut h ke Do Afr y m. ica R Ge ep. o rg ia Pe EM ru Cr BIG o Be atia lar Cr us Ja oatia El ma Sa ica lva d Ph Me or xic ilip pi o Hu nes Ind nga on ry es i Br a Jo azil Ec rdan Co uado lom r Pa bia na m E a Ur gyp Ve ugua t ne zu y e Ivo Nige la ry ria Co as t
16
1.89 0.47
2001
2002
2007
2008
Johnson & Johnson Royal Dutch Shell PLC Coca-Cola Co. Google Inc. (Cl A) Apple Inc. Merck & Co Inc Wal-Mart Stores Inc. PepsiCo Inc. ENI S.p.A. QUALCOMM Inc. Total
Strategy
3.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 20.7%
Characteristics5
Benchmark
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Cash Flow - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg
x x x % %
x x x % %
Regional Weights
Region
Sector Weights
North America Europe ex-UK United Kingdom Japan Pacific ex-Japan Cash
-10
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%) -3.3 3.4 0.8 0.5 -3.2 1.7 -5 0 5 10
Underweight/Overweight Sector Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark Consumer Discretionary 10.5 % 10.5 % 0.0 Consumer Staples 9.1 9.9 -0.8 Energy 14.3 11.4 2.9 -7.0 Financials 12.6 19.6 6.2 Health Care 16.0 9.8 0.4 Industrials 11.9 11.5 0.9 Information Technology 12.1 11.2 -2.0 Materials 6.2 8.2 0.0 Telecom. Services 4.2 4.2 -0.6 Utilities 3.2 3.8 -10 -5 0 5 10
GICS Sectors
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 Portfolio holdings are percent of equity. They are subject to change and should not be considered a recommendation to buy individual securities. 3 The MSCI World Index (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of global developed markets. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market; Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Risk profile data is gross. 5 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
1
GMO 2011
17
1.01 0.30
2001
2002
2007
2008
Johnson & Johnson Coca-Cola Co. Google Inc. (Cl A) Apple Inc. ENI S.p.A. Merck & Co Inc PepsiCo Inc. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Sanofi-Aventis S.A. QUALCOMM Inc. Total
Strategy
3.8% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 19.2%
Characteristics5
Benchmark
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Cash Flow - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Med Market Cap - Weighted Med GBP Bil. Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg
x x x % %
x x x % %
Regional Weights
Region
Sector Weights
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%) 3.0 -3.0 0.2 -3.1 1.7 1.3 -10 -5 0 5 10
Underweight/Overweight Sector Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark -0.2 Consumer Discretionary 10.6 % 10.8 % -0.6 Consumer Staples 8.6 9.2 4.4 Energy 14.3 9.9 -6.8 Financials 13.7 20.5 5.1 Health Care 13.9 8.8 -0.3 Industrials 11.6 11.9 0.7 Information Technology 13.3 12.6 -1.7 Materials 6.7 8.4 -0.2 Telecom. Services 4.0 4.2 -0.3 Utilities 3.3 3.6 -10 -5 0 5 10
GICS Sectors
GMO 2011
18
Inception: 3/31/87; Benchmark: MSCI EAFE Value Index and MSCI EAFE Index Performance (USD)1
Total Return Net of Fees (%)
Strategy -12.10 -0.59 MSCI EAFE Value -18.52 -15.91 MSCI EAFE -21.44 -15.94
Sanofi-Aventis S.A. Total S.A. GlaxoSmithKline PLC Royal Dutch Shell PLC AstraZeneca PLC ENI S.p.A. Enel S.p.A. Novartis AG E.ON AG Takeda Pharmaceutical Total
4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 27.6%
Characteristics5
M SCI Strategy EAFE Value M SCI EAFE
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med 11.0 x Price/Cash Flow - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med 6.4 x Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg 1.3 x Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Med 12.8 % Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil $29.8 Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg 4.1 %
x x x % %
x x x % %
Regional Weights
Region
Sector Weights
Sector
Europe ex-UK United Kingdom Japan Southeast Asia Canada Australia/New Zealand -6.5 Cash
-10
Underweight/Overweight Against M SCI EAFE Value (%) -0.3 0.7 2.8 -0.4 2.0 1.6 -5 0 5 10
Underweight/Overweight Against M SCI EAFE Value Strategy Benchmark 3.2 Consumer Discretionary 11.1 % 7.9 % 1.2 Consumer Staples 3.9 2.7 4.6 Energy 15.9 11.3 -18.4 Financials 16.1 34.5 6.5 Health Care 16.5 10.0 2.7 Industrials 9.8 7.1 0.7 Information Technology 3.4 2.7 0.9 Materials 7.8 6.9 -0.8 Telecom. Services 8.6 9.4 -0.6 Utilities 6.9 7.5 -20 -10 0 10 20
GICS Sectors
GMO 2011
19
3.51 1.56
2007
2008
Sanofi-Aventis S.A. GlaxoSmithKline PLC Total S.A. Royal Dutch Shell PLC AstraZeneca PLC ENI S.p.A. Novartis AG Enel S.p.A. Vodafone Group PLC Takeda Pharmaceutical Total
3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 24.5%
Characteristics5
Strategy Benchmark
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Earnings/Share - F'cast LT Med Growth Rate Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Med Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg
x x x % %
x x x % %
Regional Weights5
Region Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%) 1.2 -0.6 2.8 -0.3 1.2 -5.1 0.7 -5 0 5 10
Sector Weights5
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark 2.6 Consumer Discretionary 13.1 % 10.5 % -5.1 Consumer Staples 5.1 10.2 5.4 Energy 13.5 8.1 -11.4 Financials 12.1 23.5 7.4 Health Care 16.1 8.7 -1.3 Industrials 11.6 12.9 0.3 Information Technology 5.0 4.7 -2.1 Materials 9.2 11.3 2.8 Telecom. Services 8.3 5.5 1.2 Utilities 5.9 4.7 Sector -20 -10 0 10 20
GICS Sectors
Europe ex-UK United Kingdom Japan Southeast Asia Canada Australia/New Zealand Cash
-10
GMO 2011
20
3.41 0.48
2007
2008
KDDI Corp. Mizuho Financial Group Nippon T & T Corp. NTT DoCoMo Inc. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Daito Trust Construction Yamada Denki Co. Ltd. Resona Holdings Inc. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Sumitomo Corp. Total
4.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 27.5%
Characteristics5
Strategy Benchmark
% Negative Earnings 5.8 % Price/Earnings - Excl Neg Earn Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med 10.1 x Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med 10.4 x Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg 0.8 x Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Med 8.1 % Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil $2.2 Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg 2.6 %
% x x x % %
Sector Weights5
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark -1.8 Consumer Discretionary 18.2 % 20.0 % 2.0 Consumer Staples 7.9 5.9 2.5 Energy 4.1 1.6 4.0 Financials 21.2 17.2 -1.0 Health Care 4.8 5.8 -1.5 Industrials 19.5 21.0 Information Technology -9.1 3.7 12.8 -1.9 Materials 6.7 8.6 8.3 12.1 Telecom. Services 3.8 -1.4 Utilities 1.9 3.3 Sector -10 -5 0 5 10
GICS Sectors
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Japan Equity Strategy returned +3.4% during the second quarter of 2011. This was ahead of its benchmark, the MSCI Japan IMI The index, which returned +0.5%. Within the portfolio, stock selection and the resulting sector exposures were the primary reasons for the outperformance. Performance was particularly good within Consumer Discretionary, but also within Telecommunication Services, Financials, and Materials. Individual stock positions that added value included overweight positions in telecom company KDDI Corp., real estate developer Daito Trust Construction, and leisure company Round One Corp. Stock positions that were significant detractors included underweights in office electronics company Canon, machinery company Fanuc, and electronics company Hitachi. Sector exposures also added some value, thanks to our overweight to Telecommunication Services, which outperformed, and our underweight to Utilities, which lagged.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 Portfolio holdings are percent of equity. They are subject to change and should not be considered a recommendation to buy individual securities. 3 The MSCI Japan IMI (Investable Market Index Series) ++ Index is an internally maintained benchmark computed by GMO, comprised of (i) the MSCI Japan (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) from 12/31/2005 to 6/30/2008 and (ii) the MSCI Japan IMI (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) thereafter. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market; Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Risk profile data is gross. 5 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
1
GMO 2011
21
-1.48 -0.98
2007
2008
OAO Gazprom ADR Samsung Electronics Co. Vale S.A. (ADS) Petroleo Brasileiro S/A Lukoil Oil Company ADR China Mobile Ltd. (ADS) Ind. & Comm. Bank of China Astra International Banco do Brasil S.A. KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Total
4.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 23.2%
Characteristics5
Strategy Benchmark
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Cash Flow - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Avg Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg
x x x % %
x x x % %
Regional Weights5
Region Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%) -1.5 10.3 -6.2 -3.3 -0.8 1.6 -20 -10 0 10 20
Sector Weights5
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark Consumer Discretionary 7.7 % 8.4 % -0.7 Consumer Staples 2.4 6.7 -4.3 Energy 12.9 8.3 21.2 -1.7 Financials 21.0 22.7 -0.6 Health Care 0.9 1.5 -4.6 Industrials 4.8 9.4 -2.6 Information Technology 11.1 13.7 0.6 Materials 15.2 14.6 5.6 Telecom. Services 12.1 6.5 0.0 Utilities 3.5 3.5 Sector -10 -5 0 5 10
GICS Sectors
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 Portfolio holdings are percent of equity. They are subject to change and should not be considered a recommendation to buy individual securities. 3 The S&P/IFCI Composite Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of emerging markets stocks. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market; Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Risk profile data is gross. 5 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
1
GMO 2011
22
2.70 1.91
2007
2008
BP PLC Royal Dutch Shell PLC BHP Billiton PLC AstraZeneca PLC GlaxoSmithKline PLC Vodafone Group PLC Rio Tinto PLC British American Tobacco HSBC Holdings PLC Barclays PLC Total
7.7% 6.4% 5.2% 4.8% 4.4% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.5% 44.6%
Sector Weights5
Sector Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark 1.1 14.3 % 13.2 % 1.1 12.9 11.8 -2.5 7.1 9.6 -5.5 16.6 22.1 3.2 10.5 7.3 1.5 9.1 7.6 1.8 18.8 17.0 0.8 -0.4 -0.9 -10 -5 0 5 10
Basic Materials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Financials 5 Health Care Characteristics Strategy Benchmark Industrials Oil & Gas Price/Forecast Earnings - aggregation 10.3 x 10.7 x Technology Dividend Yield - net, wtd. avg. 3.1 % 3.0 % Telecommunications Price/Book - aggregation 3.8 x 3.6 x Utilities Price/Sales - aggregation 1.2 x 1.1 x 6 Quality Adjusted Value 0.9 x Ex-Ante Tracking Error 1.9 % Ex-Post Tracking Error 2.2 %
23
3.53 1.91
2001
2002
2007
2008
Royal Dutch Shell PLC BP PLC GlaxoSmithKline PLC AstraZeneca PLC Rio Tinto PLC Vodafone Group PLC BG Group PLC British American Tobacco BHP Billiton PLC HSBC Holdings PLC Total
9.9% 9.6% 8.7% 7.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 50.4%
Sector Weights5
Sector Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark -1.1 12.1 % 13.2 % -2.5 9.3 11.8 -4.1 5.5 9.6 -7.3 14.8 22.1 8.8 16.1 7.3 -0.2 6.9 0.2 -1.3 0.6 -10 -5 0 5 10
Basic Materials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Financials 5 Health Care Characteristics Strategy Benchmark Industrials Oil & Gas Price/Forecast Earnings - aggregation 9.7 x 10.7 x Technology Dividend Yield - net, wtd. avg. 3.4 % 3.0 % Telecommunications Price/Book - aggregation 3.5 x 3.6 x Utilities Price/Sales - aggregation 1.1 x 1.1 x 6 Quality Adjusted Value 0.8 x Ex-Ante Tracking Error 3.2 % Ex-Post Tracking Error 2.5 %
GMO 2011
24
2.85 0.10
2001
2002
2007
2008
Microsoft Corp. Pfizer Inc. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Oracle Corp. Google Inc. (Cl A) Int'l. Business Machines Johnson & Johnson Merck & Co Inc Procter & Gamble Co. Coca-Cola Co. Total
4.8% 4.6% 4.1% 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 34.4%
Sector Weights5
Sector Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark
Characteristics5
Strategy Benchmark
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Med Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil
x x % %
x x % %
-4.0 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples -4.7 Energy -12.8 Financials Health Care -7.0 Industrials Information Technology Materials -2.6 Telecom. Services Utilities -3.4 -20 -10 0
6.7 % 20.3 8.0 2.3 14.7 26.4 4.3 9.5 27.3 1.1 3.5 0.4 0.0
9.7 10 20
10.7 % 10.6 12.7 15.1 11.7 11.3 17.8 3.7 3.1 3.4
GICS Sectors
Quarterly Strategy Attribution U.S. Core Strategy returned +2.9% for the second quarter of 2011, leading the +0.1% return of the S&P 500 index. The Sector selection added to relative returns for the quarter. The strategy saw positive returns relative to the benchmark attributable to its overweight positions in Health Care and Consumer Staples and an underweight in Financials. Underweight positions in Utilities and Consumer Discretionary and an overweight in Information Technology detracted. Stock selection also added to relative returns. Selections in Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, and Materials added to returns versus the benchmark while picks in Telecommunication Services and Health Care detracted. Individual stocks adding to relative returns in the second quarter included overweight positions in UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck. Stock selections detracting from returns versus the benchmark included overweight positions in Google, ConocoPhillips, and Oracle.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 Portfolio holdings are percent of equity. They are subject to change and should not be considered a recommendation to buy individual securities. 3 The S&P 500 Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of U.S. large capitalization stocks. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market; Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Risk profile data is gross. 5 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
1
GMO 2011
25
1.86 -0.50
2001
2002
2007
2008
UnitedHealth Group Inc. Pfizer Inc. ConocoPhillips Exxon Mobil Corp. Microsoft Corp. AT&T Inc. Chevron Corp. Oracle Corp. Apple Inc. Google Inc. (Cl A) Total
4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% 33.1%
Sector Weights5
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark -4.8 Consumer Discretionary 4.2 % 9.0 % 4.7 Consumer Staples 11.9 7.2 2.6 Energy 15.0 12.4 -16.1 Financials 10.6 26.7 14.0 26.3 Health Care 12.3 -3.3 Industrials 6.1 9.4 Sector
Characteristics5
Strategy Benchmark
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Med Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil
x x % %
x x % %
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Intrinsic Value Strategy returned +1.9% for the second quarter of 2011, leading the -0.5% return of the Russell 1000 Value index. The Sector selection added to relative returns for the quarter. The strategys overweight positions in Health Care and Consumer Staples and an underweight in Financials added to relative returns. An overweight position in Information Technology and an underweight in Utilities detracted from returns versus the benchmark. Stock selection also added to relative returns. Selections in Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials added to returns versus the benchmark while picks in Information Technology and Consumer Staples detracted. Individual names adding to relative returns included overweight positions in UnitedHealth Group, Biogen, and WellPoint. Stock selections detracting from relative returns included overweight positions in Hewlett-Packard, Google, and Apple.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 Portfolio holdings are percent of equity. They are subject to change and should not be considered a recommendation to buy individual securities. 3 The Russell 1000 Value Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of the stocks included in the Russell 1000 Index with lower price-tobook ratios and lower forecasted growth values. Russell Investments is the source and owner of the Russell index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto. The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is GMOs presentation of the data. FCR is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in GMOs presentation thereof. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market; Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Risk profile data is gross. 5 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
1
GMO 2011
26
3.42 0.10
2007
2008
Johnson & Johnson Microsoft Corp. Oracle Corp. Philip Morris Int'l. Inc. Pfizer Inc. Cisco Systems Inc. Coca-Cola Co. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Exxon Mobil Corp. Apple Inc. Total
6.2% 6.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 45.7%
Characteristics4
Strategy Benchmark
Price/Earnings - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med 15.0 x Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg 3.1 x Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg 2.6 % Return on Equity - Hist 1 Yr Med 22.2 % Market Cap - Weighted Median $Bil $142.3 Debt/Equity - Wtd Med 0.6 x
x x % % x
Regional Weights4
Cash 4.2% Int'l. Equities 14.1% U.S. Equities 81.7%
Sector
Sector Weights4
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark Strategy Benchmark -8.5 19.6 -3.8 -15.1 16.1 -9.8 10.7 -3.7 -2.3 -3.4 -40 -20 0 20 40
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom. Services Utilities
2.2 % 30.2 8.9 0.0 27.8 1.5 28.5 0.0 0.8 0.0
10.7 % 10.6 12.7 15.1 11.7 11.3 17.8 3.7 3.1 3.4
GICS Sectors
GMO 2011
27
3.15 3.33
2001
Characteristics4,5
Modified Duration Average Coupon Average Maturity Average Yield Emerging Cntry Debt Exp. 6.8 4.0 8.6 6.9 4 % Yrs. % %
Regional Weights4,6
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%)
Currency Weights4
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%)
-0.5 12.5
GMO 2011
28
3.03 4.03
2007
2008
Regional Weights4
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%)
1.4
3.4 4.5 5 10
Characteristics4
Yield to Maturity Sovereign Spread Portfolio Maturity Modified Duration Average Credit Rating 5.3 % 229 Bps. 20.6 Yrs. 7.7 BB
GMO 2011
29
3.35 4.14
Characteristics4
Yield to Maturity Modified Duration 7.8 % 5.0
Regional Weights4,5
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%)
Currency Weights4
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%)
-1.9
Asia CEEMEA*
5.7
Latin America
20
-10
10
GMO 2011
30
Inception: 6/30/88; Benchmark: Blended Benchmark Performance (USD)1
Total Return Net of Fees (%)
2.22 0.98
2001
Strategy Composition3
Cash & Cash Special Equivalents Situations 2.1% 3.7% Alpha Only 17.0%
Benchmark Composition
(65% MSCI ACWI / 35% Barclays U.S. Aggregate)
Quality 23.1%
Asset Allocation Bond 2.7% Emerging Country Debt 0.5% Strategic Fixed Income 10.7% Domestic Bond 2.5% Emerging Markets 12.1%
-2.6% -4.7% U.S. Equities Int'l. Equities Emerging Equities Fixed Income
GMO 2011
31
2.33 0.74
Strategy Benchmark
10.11 7.45
Strategy Composition3
Multi-Strategy 27.0% Special Situations 3.7% Alpha Only 3.6% Cash & Cash Equiv alents 1.1% Domestic Bond 0.9% Asset Allocation Bond 1.1% Emerging Country Debt 0.4% International Intrinsic Value 12.4% International Growth 12.6% Flexible Equities 3.0% Strategic Fixed Income 6.7% Emerging Markets 3.0% U.S. Core 2.1% Quality 22.6%
Benchmark Composition
(60% MSCI World / 20% Citigroup 3-Mo. T-Bill / 20% BC U.S. Agg.)
GMO 2011
32
Inception: 7/31/01; Benchmark: CPI Plus 5% Index Performance (USD)1
Total Return Net of Fees (%)
1.59 1.59
Strategy Composition3
Multi-Strategy 20.0% Quality 19.8%
Special Situations 3.6% Alpha Only 18.7% Alternative Asset Opportunity 0.6% Cash & Cash Equivalents 0.8%
Currency Hedged Int'l. Equity 6.1% Flexible Equities 3.7% Emerging Markets 7.8% Strategic Fixed Income 10.6%
20% 0%
U.S. Equities
Int'l. Equities
Fixed Income
Absolute Return
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Global Allocation Absolute Return Strategy returned +1.6% in the quarter. The Despite the relatively flat performance of global equity markets this quarter, our long exposures to equities were aided by the strong performance from the underlying strategy investments. The Quality Strategy posted strong absolute returns of over 3.0%. Our absolute return strategies, Alpha Only and Multi-Strategy, both delivered modest yet positive performance during the quarter.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The CPI (Consumer Price Index) Plus 5% Index is an internally maintained (monthly) benchmark based on the CPI Index for All Urban Consumers US All Items which is published monthly by the U.S. government as an indicator of changes in price levels (or inflation) paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. The CPI Plus 5% Index is calculated by adding 5% annualized to the return of the CPI Index. 3 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011. 4 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross.
1
GMO 2011
33
2.86 0.24
2001
Strategy Composition3
Emerging Markets 16.5% Alpha Only 1.0% U.S. Core 5.1%
Benchmark Composition
(MSCI ACWI)
Emerging Equities
Absolute Return
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Global All Country Equity Allocation Strategy returned +2.9% for the quarter, outperforming its benchmark by 2.6%. Asset The allocations contribution was modestly negative, while implementation was the primary driver of positive returns. modest U.S. equity underweight acted as a drag on relative performance. In addition, our overweight in emerging market equities Our detracted as emerging underperformed its developed country counterparts. From an implementation perspective, the Quality Strategy outperformed its benchmark by over 300 basis points and was responsible for the lions share of this quarters overall positive performance. In addition, the underlying international equity strategies (International Intrinsic Value, International Growth Equity, and International Core Equity) were each able to beat their benchmarks by over 200 basis points.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The GMO blended Global All Country Equity Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) (MSCI standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. 3 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market;
1
GMO 2011
34
Inception: 3/31/87; Benchmark: Blended Benchmark Performance (USD)1
Total Return Net of Fees (%)
3.21 0.47
2001
Strategy Composition3
Emerging Flexible Markets Equities 3.0% 2.0% U.S. Core 8.9%
Benchmark Composition
(MSCI World Index)
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Global Developed Equity Allocation Strategy returned +3.2% for the quarter, outperforming its MSCI World benchmark by The 2.7%. Implementation accounted for virtually all of the positive relative performance. From an implementation perspective, the Quality Strategy significantly outperformed its benchmark and was responsible for the lions share of this quarters overall outperformance. In addition, the underlying international equity strategies (International Intrinsic Value and International Growth Equity) were each able to beat their benchmarks by over 200 basis points each.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The GMO blended Global Developed Equity Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of MSCI World (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. 3 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market; Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Risk profile data is gross.
1
GMO 2011
35
3.16 0.02
2001
Strategy Composition3
Small/Mid Cap Value 1.1% Small/Mid Cap Growth 1.3%
Benchmark Composition
(Russell 3000 Index)
Quality 48.8%
Quarterly Strategy Attribution U.S. Equity Allocation Strategy finished the quarter with a return of +3.2%, outperforming its benchmark by 3.1%. Virtually all The of the outperformance came from implementation. Quality, which was a key driver, outperformed its benchmark by over 300 basis points. While the weights to small cap were quite modest, the U.S. Small/Mid Cap Growth and U.S. Small/Mid Cap Value Strategies each beat their respective benchmarks by close to 400 basis points this quarter.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The GMO blended U.S. Equity Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of S&P 500, Russell 3000 or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. Russell Investments is the source and owner of the Russell index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto. The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is GMOs presentation of the data. FCR is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in GMOs presentation thereof. 3 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011. 4 Alpha is a measure of risk-adjusted return; Beta is a measure of a portfolios sensitivity to the market; R2 is a measure of how well a portfolio tracks the market; Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Risk profile data is gross.
1
GMO 2011
36
-0.71 0.02
Current Profiles4
Long Short
Sector Exposure4
Sector Net Weight (%) 6.7 4.5 0.9 6.4 18.2 1.3 21.3 3.6 1.2 -0.1 -40 -20 0 20 40
% Long/Short P/E - Excl Neg Earnings Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med % Negative Earnings
71 % 14.9 x 6.6 %
7 % 20.6 x 0.0 %
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom. Services Utilities
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Aggressive Long/Short Strategy returned -0.7% in the second quarter. The losses were spread out among our Fundamental Value, Volatility, and Merger Arbitrage strategies. The losses were driven much The more by specific situations in individual ideas than any macro factor or a flight toward or away from risk. Three of our top holdings responded poorly to missed earnings and other concerns around their businesses, falling 8%, 18%, and 30% for the quarter (compared with a flat S&P 500). In each case, we used this opportunity to add to our positions as the incremental information did not materially change our view on the companies and they each became more attractive on our valuation models. were also hurt by Nasdaqs decision to retract its bid to buy NYSE Euronext. Here too, we responded by adding to our position We in this deal as we are confident Deutsche Boerse remains a viable suitor. quantitative equity strategies were the bright spot for us in the second quarter, adding approximately 30 basis points. Our
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of short-term U.S. Treasury bills. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011. Exposure information is not normalized and shown as a percent of total net assets.
1
GMO 2011
37
8.15 0.02
2009
2010
Current Profiles4
Long Short
Sector Exposure4
Sector Net Weight 36.9 Long Short
P/E - Ex Neg Earn Hist 1 Yr Wtd Med % Negative Earnings Price/Book - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg Dividend Yield - Hist 1 Yr Wtd Avg
x % x % % x %
x % x % %
x
%
Regional Weights4
Region Net Weight -5.7 3.3 -10 -5 0 5 10
-13.0 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples -3.1 Energy -42.9 Financials Health Care -14.9 Industrials Information Technology -10.7 Materials -3.7 Telecom. Services -1.9 Utilities Unassigned -60 -30 0
23.6 20.5
6.8 30 60
2.9 % 38.2 11.3 0.0 35.7 2.0 37.2 0.0 1.1 0.0 6.8
15.9 % 1.3 14.4 42.9 12.1 16.9 16.7 10.7 4.8 1.9 0.0
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Tactical Opportunities Strategy generated gains of 8.2% in the second quarter of 2011. Positive absolute returns were generated in The both the high quality long portfolio and the low quality short portfolio. dominance of non-mega cap stocks abated in the second quarter, reflecting a shift from risk to anti-risk. There was a distinct The size bias in equity performance for the period, which favored mid cap stocks. They were the leaders, but mega cap stocks, which were within shouting distance of the mid caps, handily outpaced small caps. This had a positive impact on both the long and short sides of the strategy. High quality outpaced low quality and an accompanying move in beta returns reflected this: low beta stocks (where quality currently resides) gained on high beta. However, within quality the impact from size continues to favor non-mega cap stocks. Since 2010, mega cap quality stocks have lagged non-mega cap quality stocks. The strategys long side is predominantly mega cap quality so while our long side had good returns, it could have done better by owning expensive non-mega cap quality stocks. Two of the characteristics that quality companies exhibit high ROE and high effective yields also turned in better-than-market returns for the period. Despite the shift in pricing of risk for the quarter, quality still remains a cheap asset class especially in mega cap quality, which is below market valuations. Importantly, this group has continued to retain its economic value. The lower prices of quality companies translate into even more attractive valuations. From an industrial sector analysis, Financials, the largest short position in the strategy, generated robust gains. The largest longs Consumer Staples, Information Technology, and Health Care all generated gains. The net short positions in more cyclical sectors such as Industrials and Materials also generated gains. strategys average net exposure for the quarter was neutral. The
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of short-term U.S. Treasury bills. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011. Exposure information is not normalized and shown as a percent of total net assets.
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Inception: 3/31/96; Benchmark: J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 Month Cash Index Performance (USD)1
Total Return Net of Fees (%)
0.53 0.10
2007
2008
Characteristics4
EMBIG Beta Modified Duration Spread Duration 0.5 3.4 3.5 Yrs.
Regional Weights4
Underweight/Overweight Against Benchmark (%)
10
20
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Emerging Country Debt Long/Short Strategy gained 0.5% in the second quarter of 2011, outperforming its benchmark, the J.P. The Morgan 3 Month Cash index, by 0.4%. The strategy invests mostly in countries in the J.P. Morgan Emerging Bond Market index (EMBIG), which returned 4.0% for the quarter. portfolio has a beta of 0.5 to the credit spread risk of the J.P. Morgan EMBIG. Its interest rate duration is low, so the 29-basisThe point fall in U.S. interest rates didnt help the strategy. Due to its positive spread duration, the portfolio benefited from the slight tightening in spreads for the asset class, from 299 basis points to 289 basis points. strategy targets absolute return by taking long and short positions in the same countries. Large holdings in Argentina, Russia, and The Venezuela contributed only modestly to returns, as the spreads in those countries moved little.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 Month Cash Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of three month U.S. dollar Euro-deposits. The duration of the Index is generally 90 days. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
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1.78 0.10
2007
2008
Performance Attribution4
Net Contribution (%)
Currency Weights4
Net Weight
Quarterly Strategy Attribution the second quarter of 2011, the Currency Hedge Strategy returned of +1.8%, compared to its benchmark, the J.P. Morgan 3 Month In Cash index, which gained 0.1%. Somewhat unusually, the quarters lead gainers were safe haven Swiss franc, +8.7%, and high-carry New Zealand dollar, +8.3%. Swiss franc reached all-time highs in real effective terms, prompting one Swiss lawmaker to suggest imposing negative interest rates on foreign investors (read: Greek deposit flight) to deter further inflows. New Zealand dollar, meanwhile, continued to benefit from postquake reconstruction and insurance inflows. euro ended the quarter surprisingly well, considering that euro member Greeces bonds are pricing significant bondholder losses. The The single currency see-sawed between 1.405 and 1.475 relative to the dollar during the quarter, alternatively buoyed by the ECBs first post-crisis interest-rate increase (and the strong hints of more) and deflated by the ongoing slow-motion sovereign crises in the periphery. During the quarter the ratings for Greek debt were cut deep into junk; Portugal rested on the edge of junk (and downgraded to below right after quarter end); while Ireland delivered a rather nasty haircut to bank bondholders. policy actions, besides the ECB, Norway and Sweden each raised policy interest rates by 25 basis points during the quarter, to In 2.25% and 1.75%, respectively. At quarter end, the U.S. Federal Reserve ended its active QE2 policy. In a hint that things arent really back to normal, however, the major central banks rolled their crisis FX swap lines for another year through August 2012. performance attribution, the cross-market strategy was successful, as were opportunistic positions. In the cross-market strategy, In positive contributions came from the overweights in New Zealand, Australia, and Norway primarily. Opportunistically, the overweight New Zealand relative to Australia also contributed positively. On the downside, the collateral pool detracted.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 Month Cash Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of three month U.S. dollar Euro-deposits. The duration of the Index is generally 90 days. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
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-0.32 0.10
2006
2007
2008
Performance Attribution4
Strategy Net Contribution (%) 1.0 -0.4 1.0 0.0 -1.3 -0.8 -2 -1 0 1 2
Country Weights4
Net Weight (%)
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Fixed Income Hedge Strategy returned -0.3% in the second quarter, underperforming its benchmark, the J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 The Month Cash index, which returned 0.1%. Opportunistic strategies and tactical duration overlay positions detracted, though gains provided by cross-market strategies and the yield curve strategy partly offset losses. Government bond markets rose across the board during the quarter: in local currency J.P. Morgan Global Bond index terms, gains were the highest in Sweden (+3.3%) and lowest in Japan (+1.2%). After bouncing back handily from its 2009 recession, with GDP rising by 5.5% in 2010 and forecasting to rise by more than 4% in 2011, Sweden is focusing on cutting back on the countrys debt burden by decreasing issuance, leading to lower yields. Fears of a possible Greek default boosted investor demand for safe-haven German bunds, which returned +2.1% for the quarter. In other bond markets, Australia (+2.6%), the U.K. (+2.6%), Canada (+2.5%), the U.S. (+2.5%), and Switzerland (+1.8%) also reported total return gains. Global yield curves (measured by the difference between 10-year and 2-year swap rates) were mixed, with yield curves in Switzerland and the U.K. steepening, and in the rest flattening. Japans yield curve flattened the most during the quarter. Given rising inflation pressures in the eurozone, the ECB had its first interest-rate increase since the emergency level was established in spring 2009, raising policy rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% in April. Further, Swedens Riksbank continued its policy tightening program, raising rates by 25 basis points to 1.75% during the same month. Central banks in the strategys opportunity set have been quiet since. Opportunistic strategies hindered performance during the quarter. The strategy held a mean-reverting position in the U.S. yield curve, which instead moved further away from fair value during the quarter. Tactical Duration Overlay positions also detracted during the quarter. The strategy was incorrectly positioned short duration during the late quarter bond market rally, and long duration for the subsequent bond market selloff. While unable to fully offset losses, the cross-market strategy contributed positively during the quarter, thanks to long U.S., Swiss, and Canadian positions. Yield curve trades also added value, as the Japanese yield curve flattened more than the rest.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 Month Cash Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of three month U.S. dollar Euro-deposits. The duration of the Index is generally 90 days. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
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1.23 0.10
2007
2008
Quarterly Strategy Attribution the second quarter of 2011, the Emerging Currency Hedge Strategy returned +1.2%, while its benchmark, the J.P. Morgan 3 Month In Cash index, gained 0.1%. Positive relative performance resulted entirely from currency positioning. Most emerging currencies rose relative to the U.S. dollar during the quarter, with the largest quarterly spot gain coming from Colombian peso, +5.8%. Another nine currencies registered spot gains greater than 2%, including Brazil, Poland, Czech Republic, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Chile, Hungary, and Israel. the downside, Turkish lira was the stand-out loser, -4.9%. A yawning current account deficit (financed mostly by short-term debt) On defied authorities confidence that their unusual monetary policy would simultaneously cool domestic demand and deter hot money inflows. The CBRT did acknowledge in its spring financial stability report that sharply rising short-term borrowing (mostly by banks) was the main threat to financial stability. They vowed to continue reserve requirement hikes (rather than interest-rate hikes) to pinch credit growth. Other laggards included Argentine peso, -1.4%, and Thai baht, -1.3%. In Argentina, although the question of whether Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner would run for president in the fall was settled (yes), locals were already voting with their pesos in leaving the country. Although difficult to observe directly, the parallel (or ironically named Blue Chip) peso rate fell even faster than the official one. Despite the declines, the official pesos return was +0.5% due to the high carry in the NDF points. In Thailand, pre-election jitters weighed on the baht and temporarily narrowed onshore-offshore forwards. Peru, leftist candidate Ollanta Humala emerged victorious, although the margin was small. During the final months of the In campaign he did a Lula makeover, and each gesture lifted the depreciation pressure on the new sol. By quarter end, the new sol had risen by 1.9%, a middling performance in the region (Chile +2.2%, Brazil +4.4%, Mexico +1.5%). Chinas currency ended the quarter +1.3%, with all the gains coming in April ahead of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic dialog. As has become a seasonal pattern, China allows the currency to rise ahead of the meeting (and the U.S. semiannual report on currency manipulation), then backs off afterwards. Currency positioning was mostly positive this quarter. Notable contributions came from long positions in Brazil, Hungary, Poland, Peru, Mexico, Chile, and Indonesia. The long position in Turkey and a short position in Colombia detracted.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 Month Cash Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of three month U.S. dollar Euro-deposits. The duration of the Index is generally 90 days. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
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0.08 0.02
2002 2003 35.76 1.07
Strategy Benchmark
9.93 1.41
Equity Exposure4
Position Absolute % Quality 13.2 Emerging Equities 5.1 Japanese REIT 4.3 Opportunistic Long Equities 4.3 Euro Div. Swaps 3.8 Opportunistic Japanese Equities 1.5 U.S. Housing -1.5 Australian Banks -2.8 Opportunistic Short Equities -6.0 Chinese Equities -14.2 S&P 500 -18.7 Junk -24.1 Russell 2000/S&P Midcap -60 -30 0 30 55.6
60
Currency Exposure4
Position Absolute % 8.4 Korean Won 4.8 Singapore Dollars -1.3 China Renminbi (Yuan) -4.2 New Zealand Dollar -6.0 Swiss Franc -7.8 Australian Dollars -10 -5 0 5 10
Position
Other4
Absolute % 32.7 3.0 -1.0 -2.9 -20 0 20 40 JPY Inflation Swap Credit Opportunities Strategy S&P Volatility Currency Volatility -40
GMO 2011
43
3.72 0.02
2002 2003 3.79 1.07
United States UK Korea Taiwan Netherlands Canada Norway Japan Australia Net Equity Markets
Commodity Markets4
Commodity
Currency Selection4
Currency
Net Weight (%) 20.0 4.0 -24.0 -67.3 -100 -50 0 50 100
Soybeans Sugar Cattle Soy Oil Cotton Corn Wheat Natural Gas Hogs Silver Net Commodities
Net Weight (%) 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 -2.0 -2.0 -5.0 -5.0 -8.0 -10.0 -13.0 -20 -10 0 10 20
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Systematic Global Macro Strategy added 3.7% in the June quarter. The optimism supporting rising equity and commodity markets in April disappeared in May when commodity markets plunged as The worse-than-expected U.S. economic data and renewed concerns about European debt cast doubts about global growth. Equity markets fell 1.2% in May, according to the MSCI World index (in local currency), bond yields fell, pushing the J.P. Morgan Global Government Bond index 1.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar strengthened against most other G10 currencies. May, the strategy added 2.1% as our short commodity market positions and long bond allocation added strong value. While the In S&P GSCI Total Return index, an index of commodity markets returns, fell 6.9%, our largest short position was held in silver, down 21.2%. The strategy switched to a net short commodity allocation in January on the basis that commodity prices were too high relative to our measure of value and they had moved too high too quickly according to our measures of sentiment. strategy added a further 1.8% in June while share markets fell 1.6%. The strategy added good value from commodity market The positions. Several commodity markets partly reversed prior exaggerated moves on worries about global growth, high prices, and changing supply expectations. Our strategys long and short positions profited from divergent price moves: long positions in sugar, up 25.6% over the month, and cattle, +6.7%, were held against short positions in wheat, -26.9%, and silver, -9.1%. The strategy added further value from its overall net short allocation to commodities as they fell 5.3% according to the S&P GSCI Total Return index. Equity market selection was the only sub-strategy to lose value this quarter. Long positions in the Netherlands and Canada lost value in April, while a short position in Japan outperformed a long position in Taiwan in June.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of short-term U.S. Treasury bills. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
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GMO Multi-Strategy
Inception: 10/31/02; Benchmark: Citigroup 3-Month T-Bill Index Performance (USD)1
Total Return Net of Fees (%)
1.41 0.02
Strategy Composition4
Fixed Income Hedge 9.7% Currency Hedge 2.9% Emerging Currency Hedge 3.9% Mean Reversion 15.6%
Completion 15.8%
Quarterly Strategy Attribution Multi-Strategy portfolio returned +1.4% for the second quarter, outperforming its cash benchmark. The of the nine underlying strategies posted positive performance, with Tactical Opportunities and Systematic Global Macro doing Six particularly well. The strongest headwind came from the Completion Strategy, whose holdings in some asset-backed securities suffered some volatility toward the latter end of the quarter.
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs and other expenses, but before custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. 2 The Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of short-term U.S. Treasury bills. 3 Std. Deviation is a measure of the volatility of a portfolios return. Sharpe Ratio is the return over the risk free rate per unit of risk. Drawdown is the largest negative cumulative portfolio return from peak to trough. Risk profile data is gross. 4 The above information is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. The performance information above is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation that was made available on GMOs website in April of 2011.
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45
GMO measures each strategys performance against a specific benchmark or index (each, a Benchmark), although no strategy is managed as an index strategy or index-plus strategy. Actual composition of a strategys portfolio may differ to varying degrees from that of its Benchmark. Indices are not managed and do not pay fees and expenses. One cannot invest directly in an index. In some cases, a strategys Benchmark differs from the broad based index against which performance is shown in the strategys prospectus. GMO may change a strategys benchmark from time to time.
Full Name Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index CPI Index CPI Plus 5% Index Description The Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of short-term U.S. Treasury bills. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for All Urban Consumers US All Items is published monthly by the U.S. government as an indicator of changes in price levels (or inflation) paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) Plus 5% Index is an internally maintained (monthly) benchmark based on the CPI Index for All Urban Consumers US All Items which is published monthly by the U.S. government as an indicator of changes in price levels (or inflation) paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. The CPI Plus 5% Index is calculated by adding 5% annualized to the return of the CPI Index. The FTSE All-Share Total Return Index is an independently maintained and widely published capitalization-weighted index comprised of stocks with 98- 99% of the U.K. market capitalisation. This index is the aggregation of the FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and FTSE Small Cap Indices. The FTSE World ex-UK Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of developed (excluding the UK) and emerging large and mid capitalization stocks. The GMO blended Global All Country Equity Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) (MSCI standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The GMO blended Global Balanced Asset Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of S&P 500, MSCI ACWI (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) and Barclays Capital Aggregate or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The GMO blended Global Developed Equity Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of MSCI World (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The GMO blended Real Return Global Balanced Asset Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of MSCI World (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax), Barclays Capital Aggregate, and Citigroup 3-Month T-Bill or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The blended U.S. Equity Allocation Composite benchmark is comprised of a weighted average of account benchmarks; many of the account benchmarks consist of S&P 500, Russell 3000 or some like proxy for each market exposure they have. For each underlying account benchmark, the weighting of each market index will vary slightly. The index is internally blended by GMO and maintained on a monthly basis. Russell Investments is the source and owner of the Russell index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto. The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is GMOs presentation of the data. FCR is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in GMOs presentation thereof. The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (Emerging Markets Bond) Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of debt securities of countries, including Brady bonds, sovereign debt, local debt, and Eurodollar debt, all of which are U.S. dollar denominated. The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (Emerging Markets Bond) Index + is an internally maintained benchmark computed by GMO, comprised of (i) the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) through 8/31/1995, (ii) the J.P. Morgan EMBI+ through 12/31/1999, and (iii) the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global thereafter. The J.P. Morgan GBI-EM (Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets) Diversified Index is an independently maintained and widely published index of global local emerging markets consisting of regularly traded, liquid fixed-rate, domestic currency government bonds. The J.P. Morgan Global Government Bond Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of government bonds of developed countries with maturities of one year or more.
FTSE World ex-UK Index GMO Blended Benchmark of Global All Country Equity Allocation Composite
J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Index J.P. Morgan EMBI Global + Index J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Diversified Index J.P. Morgan Global Government Bond Index
J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 Month Cash The J.P. Morgan U.S. 3 Month Cash Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of three month U.S. Index dollar Euro-deposits. The duration of the Index is generally 90 days. MSCI EAFE Index The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) Index (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of international large and mid capitalization stocks. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder.
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Full Name MSCI EAFE Value Index Description
The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) Value Index (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of international large and mid capitalization stocks that have a value style. Large and mid capitalization stocks encompass approximately 85% of each markets free float-adjusted market capitalization. Style is determined using a multi-factor approach based on historical and forward-looking characteristics. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of global emerging markets large and mid capitalization stocks. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. MSCI Japan Index The MSCI Japan Index (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of equity securities issued by Japanese companies listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange, Osaka Stock Exchange, JASDAQ and Nagoya Stock Exchange. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The MSCI Japan IMI (Investable Market Index Series) ++ Index is an internally maintained benchmark computed by GMO, comprised of (i) the MSCI Japan (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) from 12/31/2005 to 6/30/2008 and (ii) the MSCI Japan IMI (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) thereafter. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The MSCI World Growth Index (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of global developed markets large and mid capitalization stocks that have a growth style. Large and mid capitalization stocks encompass approximately 85% of each markets free float-adjusted market capitalization. Style is determined using a multi-factor approach based on historical and forward-looking characteristics. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The MSCI World Index (MSCI Standard Index Series, net of withholding tax) is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of global developed markets. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. The Russell 1000 Value Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of the stocks included in the Russell 1000 Index with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. Russell Investments is the source and owner of the Russell index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto. The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is GMOs presentation of the data. FCR is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in GMOs presentation thereof. The S&P 500 Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of U.S. large capitalization stocks. The S&P/IFCI Composite Index is an independently maintained and widely published index comprised of emerging markets stocks.
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