An Assignment On Coastal Hazards: Drought

CHAPTER ONE 1. Introduction

1.1Background and Present Status of the Study
Drought most generally is defined as a temporary reduction in moisture availability significantly below the normal for a specified period. Bangladesh extends from 2034 N to 2638 N latitude and from 8801 E to 9241 E longitude. Climatically, the country belongs to sub-tropical region where monsoon weather prevails throughout the year. The average temperature of the country ranges from 17 to 20.6C during winter and 26.9 to 31.1C during summer. Four distinct seasons can be recognized in Bangladesh from climatic point of view: (i) the winter season from December to February, (ii) the pre-monsoon season from March to May, (iii) the monsoon season which lasts from June to September and (iv) the post-monsoon which lasts from October to November (Rashid, 1991). The average annual rainfall of the country varies from 1329 mm in the northwest to 4338 mm in the northeast (Shahid et al., 2005). The gradient of rainfall from west to east is approximately 9 mm/km. The western part of Bangladesh experiences an average areal rainfall of approximately 2044 mm, which is much lower than other parts of the country. The rainfall is also very much seasonal, almost 77% of rainfall occurs during monsoon. In summer, the hottest days experience extreme temperatures of about 45C or even more in the region. Again in the winter the temperature even falls below 5C in some places. In Bangladesh drought is defined as the period when moisture content of soil is less than the required amount for satisfactory crop-growth during the normal crop-growing season. Droughts are common in the northwestern districts of Bangladesh. Some of these droughts usher in famine. One definite manifestation of the onset of the drought is the 'top burning' of the bamboo and betel nut trees, that is, they lose green foliage and the fresh leaves turn brown because of lack of moisture in soil and air. The condition often culminates to their death, if there is no rain or irrigated water for a substantially long time. However, drought can also occur in areas that usually enjoy adequate rainfall and moisture levels. Due to drought severity, crop loss ranges between 20 and 60 percent or even may be more for transplanted aman and other rice varieties. Depending on the intensity of drought, the estimated yield reduction of different crops varies

from 10% to 70%. The yield loss may considerably be reduced through judicious and limited irrigation at the critical stages of crop growth. Drought has become a recurrent natural phenomenon of northwestern Bangladesh (ie Barind tarct) in recent decades. Barind Tract covers most parts of the greater Dinajpur, Rangpur, Pabna, Rajshahi, Bogra, Joypurhat and Naogaon districts of Rajshahi division. Rainfall is comparatively less in Barind Tract than the other parts of the country. The average rainfall is about 1,971 mm, which mainly occurs during the monsoon. Rainfall varies aerially as wells as yearly. For instance, rainfall recorded in 1981 was about 1,738 mm, but in 1992 it was 798 mm. The distribution of rainfall is rather variable from one place to another. Thus this region has already been known as drought prone area of the country. The average highest temperature of the Barind region ranges from 35C to 25C for the hottest season and 12C to 15C for the coolest season. Generally this particular region of the country is rather hot and considered as a semi-arid region. In summer, some hottest days experience the temperature of about 45C or even more in the Rajshahi area, particularly at Lalpur. Again in the winter the temperature even falls at 5C in some places of Dinajpur and Rangpur districts. So this older alluvium region experiences the two extremities that clearly contrast with the climatic condition of the rest of the country. Meteorologically drought can be classified into three types: permanent drought - characterised by arid climate; seasonal drought - caused by irregularities in recognised rainy and dry seasons; and contingent drought - caused by irregular rainfall. Bangladesh is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world (Shahid and Behrawan, 2008). Almost every year, the country experiences disasters of one kind or another, such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion, floods, norwesters, tornadoes and droughts, causing heavy loss of life and property and jeopardizing the development activities (Ali, 1996). High spatial and temporal climatic variability, extreme weather events, high population density, high incidence of poverty and social inequity, poor institutional capacity, inadequate financial resources, and poor infrastructure have made Bangladesh highly vulnerable to disaster (Ahmed, 2004). Drought is a recurrent phenomenon in some parts of the country. Drought mostly affects Bangladesh in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods. From 1949 to 1979 drought conditions had never affected the entire country. The percentage of drought affected areas were 31.63% in 1951, 46.54% in 1957, 37.47% in 1958, 22.39% in 1961, 18.42% in 1966, 42.48% in 1972 and 42.04% in 1979. During 1981 and 1982 droughts affected the production of the monsoon crops only. During the last 50 years, Bangladesh suffered about 20 drought conditions. The drought condition in northwestern Bangladesh in recent decades had led to a shortfall of rice production of 3.5 million tons in the 1990s.

Chronology of droughts of historical significance 1791 1865 1866 1872 1874 1951 1973 1975 1978-79 Drought affected Jessore district. Prices had risen to twice and three times of their usual levels. Drought proceeding famine occurred in Dhaka. Severe drought in Bogra. The rice production of the district was hit hard and the price went up three times its normal level. Drought in Sundarbans. The rainfall was deficient and in several lots the crops suffered to a great extent. Bogra was affected and the crop failure was much greater. The rainfall was extremely low. Severe drought in northwest Bangladesh and substantially reduced rice production. One of the severest in the present century and was responsible for the 1974 famine in northern Bangladesh. This drought affected 47% of the entire country and caused sufferings to about 53% of the total population. Severe drought causing widespread damage to crops. Reduced rice production by about 2 million tons and directly affected about 42% of the cultivated land and 44% of the population. It was one of the severest in recent times. Severe drought adversely affected crop production. Caused a total loss of rice production amounting to about 53,000 tons. In the same year flood damaged about 36,000 tons of rice. Most of the rivers in NW Bangladesh dried up and several districts, such as Naogaon, Nawabganj, Nilpahamari and Thakurgaon; dust syndrome occurred for a prolonged period due to drying up the topsoil. This drought was followed by that of 1995-96, caused immense damage to crops, especially in the case of rice and jute the main crops of NW Bangladesh. These are followed by bamboo-clumps, a major cash earning crop of many farmers in the region. In the recent times, this was most persistent drought in Bangladesh.

1981 1982 1989

1994-95

1.2 Objectives of the study

The main objective of the study is to show the scenario of present drought condition in the coastal region and all over the Bangladesh. . The objectives are to find out the following views; To identify the most drought affected area To find out the reason of drought occerance To show the management policy of drought

1.3 Importance of the study

In Bangladesh, though Northern part is largely affected area by drought, some parts of coastal areas are also very much affected by drought. By this study, we know the drought affected areas, there vulnerabilities, livelihood pattern in those affected areas. These will helps us how can we control or take necessary steps to protect those areas from drought.

1.4 Limitation of the study

The major limitation of this study is the lacking of available data. We have not enough time to collect data from the field, we just collect the data from different journal, research paper, books, and from internet. For that we faced the problem in gathering and analyzing data to find out a appropriate findings.

CHAPTER TWO

2.1Study Area
Bangladesh, a flood plain delta, is a land of rivers and canals. The country is sloping gently from the north to the south, meeting the Bay of Bengal at the southern end.The coastal zone of Bangladesh is a mixture of very old settlements and new land developments. It was part of different kingdoms and ruled by different dynasties for many centuries, which consequently shaped the cultural trait and the social fabric of respective populations. The whole coast runs parallel to the Bay of Bengal, forming 710 km long coastline (CZPo, 2005). According to the coastal zone policy (CZPo, 2005) of the Government of Bangladesh, 19 districts out of 64 are in the coastal zone covering a total of 147 upazillas of the country. Out of these 19 districts, only 12 districts meet the sea or lower estuary directly. The zone is divided into exposed and interior coast according to the position of land. The upazillas that face the coast or river estuary are treated as exposed coastal zone. Total number of upazillas that fall on exposed coastal zone is 48 in 12 districts. A total of 99 upazillas that are located behind the exposed coast are treated as interior coast. The exposed coast embraces the sea directly and is subject to be affected highly by the anticipated sea level rise. The coastal zone covers 47,211 square kilometer land area, which is 32 percent of total landmass of the country (Islam, 2004; p.xvii). The coast of Bangladesh is approximately 710 km. long which has a very low-laying flat land. 62 % of the land have an elevation less than three meters and 86% have less than five meters (Hasan, Mobassarul et al. 2009).Water area covers 370.4 km (200 nautical miles) from the coastline (UNCLOS, 1982; Article 57), estuaries and the internal river water. The Exclusive Economic zone (EEZ) is also treated as a coastal zone of its own.

The southern part of Bangladesh falls under coastal zone that receives discharge of numerous rivers, including Ganges-Brahmputra-Meghna (GBM) river system, creating one of the most productive ecosystems of the country.

2.1.1 Eastern coastal zone The eastern coastal zone starts from Bodormokam, the southern tip of mainland to the Feni river estuary. This zone is very narrow. A series of small hills are run parallel to this zone. Karnafully, Sangu and Matamuhury river falls into the Bay of Bengal in this area. The Naf river falls to the Bay of Bengal dividing Bangladesh from Myanmar. Soil characteristics of the eastern coastal zone are dominated by submerged sands and mudflats (Islam, 2001; p.9). The submerged sand of the zone has formed a long sandy beach of 145 km from Coxs Bazar towards Teknaf. Two of the countrys most important sandy beaches from tourists perspective, namely Patenga and Coxs Bazar are located in this coastal zone. Fish farming, fishing in the bay, salt production and tourism are main economic activities of the zone.

2.1.2 Central coastal zone

Central coastal zone extends from Feni river estuary to the eastern corner of the Sundarbans, covering Noakhali, Barisal, Bhola and Patuakhali districts. The zone receives a large volume of discharge from the Ganges-Bhrahmputra-Meghna river system, forming high volume of silty deposition. More than 70% of the sediment load of the region is silt; with an additional 10% sand (Coleman, 1969; cited in Allison et al., 2003). Because of the sediment discharge and strong current, the morphology of the zone is very dynamic and thus erosion and accretion rates in the area are very high. Numerous islands are located in the area including the countrys only island district Bhola. Many islands have been formed in last few years in the area by the process of land accretion. At the same time many have been eroded or disappeared (Rahman et al. 1993; Pramanik 1988, Cited in SDNP 2004). Kuakata, an attractive sandy beach is located at the zone under Khepupara upazilla of Patuakhali district.

2.1.3 Western coastal zone

The western coastal zone is covered by the Sundarbans mangrove forest, covering greater Khulna and part of Patuakhali district. Because of presence of mangrove forest, the zone is relatively stable in terms of soil erosion. Mangrove swamps, tidal flats, natural levees and tidal creeks are characteristics of the zone. Mangroves of the area support feeding and breeding grounds for fish and shrimps species, enriching the area in fisheries bio-diversity. The area lies at 0.9 to 2.1 metre above mean sea level (Iftekhar & Islam, 2004). Soil characteristics of the western coastal zone are silty loams or alluvium. Islam (2003) mentioned that mangrove dominated coastal areas have developed

on soil formations of recent origin consisting of alluvium washed down from the Himalayas. The zone also has tourist attraction in the Sundarbans.

Figure2.1: Coastal zone of Bangladesh (Source: Islam, 2004)

Among those many district of the western coastal region of Bangladesh are more affected by drought such as. Bagerhat, Khulna and pirajpur are susceptible to severe drought during Kharif season. All other coastal district are susceptible to slight drought.

CHAPTER THREE 3.1 Materials and Methods

Construction of an efficient methodology is a pre-requirement for a report. To perform the job, i .e to study the present status of thecoastal energy resources and to achieve the objectives of this report, present study has been persuaded according to the sequential steps stated in this chapter. 3.2 Problem identification This is the pre-requisite of any study. For this purpose the researcher had to study the related documents through internet and related books. 3.2.1 Conceptualization In order to conceptualize the idea regarding the prospects and constraints of the marine and coastal resources of Bangladesh study on some related journals, reports have been reviewed. 3.2.2 Study design This is a descriptive type of study. The report in this study used secondary data source only. 3.2.3 Collection of secondary data This is an important issue of the study. All data and informations were collected from different government and Non-Government Organizations. Statistical report, articles, published material, officials records and literature review are also necessary for getting secondary information.

Maps and geological information: Google Map; Banglapedia Population Census: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS,11) Journals, papers and articles relevant to the study:Internet

CHAPTER FOUR 4.1 Result and Discussion 4.1.1 Drought

Drought,a prolonged, continuous period of dry weather along with abnormal insufficient rainfall. It occurs when evaporation and transpiration exceed the amount of precipitation for a reasonable period. Drought causes the earth to parch and a considerable hydrologic (water) imbalance resulting water shortages, wells to dry, depletion of groundwater and soil moisture, stream flow reduction, crops to wither leading to crop failure and scarcity in fodder for livestock. Drought is a major natural hazards faced by communities directly dependent on rainfall for drinking water, crop production, and rearing of animals. Since ancient times droughts have far-reaching effects on mankind. Large land areas often suffer damages from dust storms and fire. Drought could be the reason for migration of early human communities. It has long been considered to be a natural hazard responsible for ups and downs of many civilizations of the world. The worst drought of the last century in the sub-continent occurred in 12 states of India in 1999-2000. Drought is difficult to define and needs different definitions to explain specific situations. It is important that those involved in drought preparedness and mitigation share a common understanding of the ways in which drought may be defined and the assumptions and constraints involved in using particular definitions. In most cases, drought is temporary. A month-long drought may occur in an area that normally experiences alternating wet and dry periods. Defining a temporary reduction of water/moisture availability as a drought is extremely difficult and depends upon the time period being considered. Droughts of similar severity may have dramatically different impacts on livelihoods because of ecological, socio-economic and cultural differences. Thus, it is difficult to define drought solely with regard to reduction in water/moisture availability. Invariably, the definition has to consider how the physical event impacts upon society. 4.1.2 Types of drought Types of drought need to be distinguished in order to understand causes and effects. The types of droughts to be considered are:

meteorological agricultural seasonal hydrological Socioeconomic

Meteorological and agricultural droughts are frequently, but erroneously, considered synonymous. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are physical events but agricultural drought refers to the impact of the first two on agricultural production. It is necessary to distinguish between these types and clarify where and how they overlap. Both climate variability and climate change influence such aspects as time (season, intra-season), location and length of drought occurrence. 4.1.2.1 Meteorological drought Meteorological drought occurs when the reduction in rainfall for a specified period (day, month, season or year) is below a specified amount usually defined as some proportion of the longterm average. It is usually an expression of precipitations departure from normal over some period of time . These definitions are region specific and presumably based on a thorough understanding of regional climatology. 4.1.2.2 Hydrological drought Hydrological drought refers to deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies based on measurements of stream flow and lake, reservoir and groundwater levels. When precipitation is reduced or deficient during an extended period of time, this shortage eventually will be reflected in declining surface and subsurface water levels. However, hydrological measurements are not the earliest indicators of drought because of the time between reduced periods of precipitation and reduced water in streams, rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Hydrological droughts may be caused by rainfall reductions anywhere within the catchments of the river or aquifer. Thus, irrigated agricultural areas alongside the rivers in Bangladesh may experience a hydrological drought as a result of low rainfall. Barind areas that use deep or shallow boreholes to draw water from underground aquifers may experience hydrological drought as a result of geological changes that cut off parts of the aquifers. Over-utilization of the aquifer may also result in its exhaustion after few years. 4.1.2.3 Agricultural drought Agricultural drought occurs when there isnt enough soil moisture to meet the needs of a particular crop at a particular time. Agricultural drought happens after meteorological drought

but before hydrological drought. Agriculture is usually the first economic sector to be affected by drought. Agricultural drought results from the impact of meteorological or hydrological droughts on crop yields. For optimum growth, crops have temperature, moisture and nutrient requirements during their growth cycles. If moisture availability falls below the required amount during the crop growth, yield will be reduced. However, droughts have different impacts on different crops. Because of the complexity of the relationships of crop growth and water requirement, agricultural drought is difficult to measure.

4.1.2.4 Socioeconomic drought Socioeconomic drought occurs when physical water shortage starts to affect people, individually and collectively. In more abstract terms, most socioeconomic definitions of drought are associated with its effect on the supply and demand of a product that has market value. Water used in support of human activity is derived from direct rainfall which is temporarily stored in rivers and lakes or from groundwater aquifers. Some groundwater aquifers, such as those in the Barind areas of Bangladesh, may contain rainwater that fell decades or even centuries before. A temporary shortfall of rainfall or groundwater may cause a drought. 4.1.2.5 Seasonal drought Seasonal droughts are related to deficit soil moisture during certain periods within a season. In Bangladesh, three types of droughts are recognized during monsoon season: early-season mid-season terminal-season Early-season droughts are due to delayed onset or early breaks in monsoon rainfall. Mid-season droughts are caused by intermittent, short or extended dry spells. Terminal-season droughts are caused by early withdrawal of monsoon rainfall. In the Barind tracts of Bangladesh, terminal droughts are more frequent and coincide with the most important growth phases of the rice crop. 4.1.3 Causes of Drought Generally, rainfall is related to the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, combined with the upward forcing of the air mass containing that water vapor. If either of these are reduced, the result is a drought. This can be triggered by an above average prevalence of high pressure systems, winds carrying continental, rather than oceanic air masses (i.e. reduced water content), and ridges of high pressure areas form with behaviors which prevent or restrict the developing of thunderstorm activity or rainfall over one certain region. Oceanic and atmospheric weather cycles such as the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) make drought a regular recurring feature of the Americas along the Midwest and Australia. Guns, Germs, and Steel author Jared

Diamond sees the stark impact of the multi-year ENSO cycles on Australian weather patterns as a key reason that Australian aborigines remained a hunter-gatherer society rather than adopting agriculture. Another climate oscillation known as the North Atlantic Oscillation has been tied to droughts in northeast Spain. Human activity can directly trigger exacerbating factors such as over farming, excessive irrigation, deforestation, and erosion adversely impact the ability of the land to capture and hold water. While these tend to be relatively isolated in their scope, activities resulting in global climate change are expected to trigger droughts with a substantial impact on agriculture throughout the world, and especially in developing nations. Overall, global warming will result in increased world rainfall. Along with drought in some areas, flooding and erosion will increase in others. Paradoxically, some proposed solutions to global warming that focus on more active techniques, solar radiation management through the use of a space sunshade for one, may also carry with them increased chances of drought. Causes of drought in Bangladesh are related to climate variability and non-availability of surface water resources. The immediate cause of a rainfall shortage may be due to one or more factors including absence of moisture in the atmosphere or large-scale downward movement of air within the atmosphere which suppresses rainfall. Changes in such factors involve changes in local, regional and global weather and climate. While it may be possible to indicate the immediate cause of a drought in a particular location, it often is not possible to identify an underlying cause. Short-term drought episodes can be linked to global atmospheric and oceanic circulation features. For example, the El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results from development of warm surface water off the Pacific coast of South America, affects the levels of rainfall in many parts of the world, including monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh. On a larger scale, the link between sea surface temperature and rainfall has been suggested as a possible cause of long, dry regimes. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses have been suggested as causes of rainfall changes, which are, in turn, attributed as climate change. There is strong evidence that climate change will alter the rainfall pattern and as a result more frequent droughts are expected. Among the local-level causes are human-induced changes resulting from vegetation loss due to over exploitation of resources and deforestation. The hydrological and climatic conditions of Bangladesh are characterised by too much water in the wet monsoon and too little in the dry months. The drought environment is further aggravated by the cross boundary anthropogenic interventions. About 58 rivers that flow through Bangladesh actually come through India and Myanmar (India 55 and Myanmar 3). Most of these trans boundary rivers enter into the country along the NW and SW regions. The natural flow of these rivers is interrupted by upstream withdrawal of water for economic and household uses as well as for construction of water management structures by the concerns countries. The effect on these structures obstructs the normal flow of water in rivers such as the

Ganges(at Farakka), the Punarbhaba (just beyond Banglabandha) and the Tista. These structures mostly divert dry season flow of the rivers, which create not only a scarcity of surface water in NW and SW Bangladesh, but also tend to affect negatively the recharge of groundwater in these regions. Ultimately it leads to moisture loss in a vast area and contributes to drought condition in these two regions of the country.

4.1.4 Impacts of drought

Drought definitions abound and are used to meet specific goals such as agricultural development planning or water resource management (Giambelluca et al. 1988, 406; Jallow 1995, 24). In the context of Bangladesh, Brammer (1987, 21) defines drought as a period when soil moisture supply is less than what is required for satisfactory crop growth during a season when crops normally are grown. This definition resembles one provided by Heathcote (1974). He defines drought as a "shortage of water harmful to man's agricultural activities. It occurs as an interaction between agricultural activity (i.e., demand) and natural events (i.e., supply), which results in a water volume or quality inadequate for plant and/or animal needs." Thus, a drought is not absolute in the sense of there being a total lack of rainfall during a normal crop growing season. The impacts of drought are diverse and often ripple through the economy. Impacts can be classified as economic, environmental, and social. In a society where agriculture is the main economic activity, a direct or first-order impact of drought is observed in the form of decrease in food production via decrease in area and yield. The second-order impact is decreased employment and income. The delay in sowing and transplanting crops reduces agricultural employment. Employment opportunities are further reduced due to diminished need for weeding and harvesting. Because of reduced food production, prices of foodgrains usually rise rapidly following a drought (Ghose 1982, 389). Decreased food production, abnormal increases in foodgrain prices, and non-availability of jobs reduce the food entitlement of rural people, especially the small farmers and landless laborers. At this stage, drought victims often are compelled to buy food by selling their lands, household goods, and livestock at distressed prices (Reardon et al. 1988, 1065). People start to consume wild plants, tubers, and leaves not normally eaten (Jallow 1995, 35). This provides an 'early warning' of famine. Since independence, Bangladesh has experienced droughts of major magnitude in 1973, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1995 (Adnan 1993, 1; Hossain 1990, 33). Although droughts are not always continuous in any area, they do occur sometimes in the low rainfall zones of the country. As listed above, Bangladesh experienced consecutive droughts in 1978 and 1979, 1981 and 1982, and 1994 and 1995. The 1973 drought was labelled 'the worst in recent

history,' 1979 drought was dubbed 'the worst in living memory,' (see Murshid 1987, 35) and 1994-95 drought 'the worst in this century' (Rahman 1985, 8).

4.1.4.1Consequences of Drought: Short and Long Term Regardless of a drought's stage, there are short and long term consequences with any drought because of nature and society's dependence on water. Problems associated with drought can have economic, environmental, and social impacts on both the areas where they occur and areas that have relations with those where the drought happens. Most of the economic impacts of drought are associated with agriculture and the income generated from crops. In times of drought, the lack of water can often cause a decline in crop yields, and thus a reduction in income for farmers and an increase in the market price of products

since there is less to go around. In a prolonged drought, unemployment of farmers and even retailers can occur, having a significant impact on the economy of the area and those with economic ties to it. In terms of environmental problems, drought can result in insect infestations and plant diseases, increased erosion, habitat and landscape degradation, a decrease in air quality and that of what water is present, as well as an increased risk of fire because of drier vegetation. In short-term droughts, natural environments can often rebound, but when there are long term droughts, plant and animal species can suffer tremendously, and over time desertification can happen with an extreme lack of moisture. Finally, droughts have social impacts that can cause disputes between users of available water, inequalities in water distribution between wealthy and poor, disparities in areas in need of disaster relief, and a decline in health. In addition, in rural developing countries population migration can begin when one area experiences drought because often people will go to areas where water and its benefits are more prevalent. This then depletes the natural resources of the new area, can create conflicts among neighboring populations, and takes workers away from the original area. Over time, increased poverty and social unrest is likely to develop.

4.1.4.2 Kharif Drought (T Aman ) in Bangladesh The Kharif drought classification for delineating the drought prone areas is based on the percentage of sub-humid and dry decades present in each Kharif humid period. The dry subhumid decades may be defined as a period when precipitation (P) is less than half of the potential evapotranspiration (PET), while the dry decade can be defined as a period when there is no precipitation.The total number of dry days can be derived from the percentage of decades in each Kharif humid period. Combinations of parameters for each drought prone class were made with the frequency of these decades on the basis of available soil moisture in the highland and medium highland. The severity of either of the parameters was the dominant factor in ranking in the higher classes of the drought prone areas. Kharif drought prevails intermittently during June through October on the highland and medium highland soils of the country. The T. Aman crops grown on these lands are affected by drought. Four drought prone classes have been identified in the Kharif period for the whole country (Figure 1.2). Areas occupied by each drought prone class are shown in percentage within brackets. These classes are Very severe (8.1 %), Severe (24.6 %), Moderate (30.7 %) and Slight (36.6 %).

4.1.4.3 Impacts of drought on crop yield The T. Aman crop is also vulnerable to drought due to uncertain rain and its uneven distribution. In the T. Aman season, drought has a great impact on agricultural production. Early drought delays transplanting and harvesting of this crop which affects the growing of Rabi crops after T. Aman. As a result, a large area remains fallow after T. Aman is harvested. Early drought also retards tillering and vegetative growth, which reduces the yield of the crop. This crop also faces maximum drought stress during its panicle initiation to the maturity stage. Yield reduction of T. Aman in different Kharif drought prone classes is shown in the Table: Intensity of Kharif drought and yield reduction of T. Aman crop

Drought prone classes Very severe Severe Moderate Slight Source: BARC, 1990

Yield with no stress(t/ha) 4.5 5.5 4.0 5.0 4.5- 5.5 3.5 5.0

Reduction over no stress yield (%) > 45 35 45 20 35 < 20

4.1.4.4 Impacts of drought in coastal region of Bangladesh One unique feature of the coastal zone is its distinct vulnerabilities that may people face.These are more varied and intensive than those faced by even poorer and more vulnerable inland communities. In the coastal zone of Bangladesh, a wide range of vulnerabilities is identified. These are: cyclones and storm surges land erosion Flood Drainage congestion Salinity intrusion Drought Earthquake Shortage of drinking water and arsenic contamination Ecosystem degradation Pollution Climate change

All these coastal hazards drought is one of them, but its not so severe than oter hazards in the coastal region. Moderate drought risk prevails in the coastal zone with varying intensities and magnitude over the season .Southwestern coastal district except sundarban are in risk of moderate drought during the dry season. All other coastal district are susceptible to slight drought. Bagerhat, Khulna and pirojpur are susceptible to severe drought during Kharif season,while Satkhira is susceptible to very sever drought during that time. Drought hazard poses serious threat to food security, as it bring down the yield of crops.No preventive measures are in place.

4.1.5 Drought in Bangladesh Bangladesh is most vulnerable to several natural disasters and every year natural calamities upset people's lives in some part of the country. The major disasters concerned here are the occurrences of flood, cyclone and storm surge, flash flood, drought, tornado, riverbank erosion, and landslide. These extreme natural events are termed disasters when they adversely affect the whole environment, including human beings, their shelters, or the resources essential for their livelihoods. The geographical setting of Bangladesh makes the country vulnerable to natural disasters. The mountains and hills bordering almost three-fourths of the country, along with the funnel shaped Bay of Bengal in the south, have made the country a meeting place of life-giving monsoon rains, but also makes it subjected to the catastrophic ravages of natural disasters. Its physiography and river morphology also contribute to recurring disasters. Abnormal rainfall and earthquakes in the adjacent Himalayan range add to the disaster situation. Effects of El-NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) and the apprehended climatic change have a great impact on the overall future disaster scenar ios. Since Bangladesh is a disaster prone country, it is subject to colossal damages to life and property almost every year.

Figure : 4.1 Drought intensity over year

Source: BCAS Compilation

The different types of disasters, and their impact on the affected areas can broadly be summarized as in the accompanying Table 4.1.
Table:4.1
Types of Disaster Flood Areas Affected Floodplains of the BrahmaputraJamuna, the Ganges-Padma and the Meghna river system Impact Loss of agricultural production, disruption of communication and livelihood system, injury, damage and destruction of immobile infrastructure, disruption to essential services, national economic loss, evacuation, and loss of human lives and biodiversity, displacement and sufferings of human population and biodiversity Loss of agricultural production, disruption of communication and livelihood system, damage and destruction of immobile infrastructure, injury, national economic loss, loss of biodiversity and human lives, need for evacuation and temporary shelter Loss of human life and biodiversity, injury, damage and destruction of property, damage of cash crops, disruption in lifestyle, damage to essential services, national economic loss and loss of livelihood Loss of agricultural production, stress on national economy and disruption in life style Damage of standing crops, disruption in life style, evacuation and destruction of properties Damage and destruction of property, damage and destruction of subsistence and cash crops and loss of livelihood Loss of land, displacement of human population and livestock, disruption of production, evacuation and loss of property Loss of land, displacement of human population and livestock, evacuation, damage of property and loss of life Damage and destruction of property, loss of life and change in geomorphology

Cyclone and Storm Surge

Coastal areas and offshore islands

Tornado

Scattered areas of the country

Drought Flash Flood Hail Storm and Lightning Erosion

Almost all areas, especially the Northwest region of the country Haor Basins of the North-east region and South-eastern hilly areas Any part of the country

Landslide

Banks of the Brahmaputra -Jamuna, the Ganges-Padma and the Meghna river systems Chittagong and Chittagong Hill Tracts

Earthquake

Northern and central parts of the country

Source: SoE Study Team

Flood is a recurring phenomenon in the country, locally termed as Bonna or Borsha based on the intensity of monsoon rain, magnitude and time of occurrence. When the floodwater damage resources, and disrupt communication and livelihood systems, then it is treated as Bonna. Bangladesh gets damaging floods like that of 1988, which bring untold sufferings to millions of people, and result in human deaths, loss of livestock, spread of diseases and hunger, damaged standing crops, destroyed physical and economic infrastructures, damaged fish and shrimp ponds and hatcheries, etc. Cyclone and storm surges occur frequently and cause significant destruction in the coastal areas of the country. Norwesters and tornadoes also frequently hit different places. Tropical cyclones and tornadoes uproot trees, telephone, telegraph and electricity lines, destroy bridges, culverts, and houses, kill people and domestic animals, leaving serious and adverse effects on the economy as well as on the whole environment. Although this country with monsoon climate has enough rain, droughts frequently take a significant portion out of the agricultural economy of Bangladesh, and cause hunger, instability, and insecurity. The northwestern part of the country is vulnerable to drought. Disastrous erosions are mainly associated with the major river systems of the country and are seen along these river banks i.e., the Brahmaputra- Jamuna, the Ganges-Padma, the Lower Meghna, and other rivers. The effects of a natural disaster, or a combination of more than one natural disaster may be direct loss of life, and certainly damage to physical properties. This requires large resources for disaster management including mitigation, recovery and preparedness. Therefore, the consequences of these natural hazards and the resulting environmental degradation pose a serious threat to the economic development of the country. The situation calls for an effective disaster warning and dissemination system. A timely and accurate alert system about impending disasters will help reduce the loss of life and property (Pramanik, 1991). Natural disasters cannot be prevented, but the damage can be mitigated with adequate planning and adaptation. The impacts of these disasters vary with their type and magnitude. They also critically depend on institutional strength and response by the different agencies that usually take measures to mitigate and eventually overcome the losses, such as the government and other civil service organizations.

Drought severely affects crop output in Bangladesh. Because of nonavailability of relevant data, the figures on the annual drought-related loss of crop production cannot be presented except for the 1982 drought. The total loss of rice production due to drought in 1982 was 52,896 metric tons (BBS 1986, 287-90). This accounted for about 41% of the total damage caused by all types of environmental hazards (cyclones, hailstorms, heavy rains, floods, and drought) that occurred in that year. The 1982 flood damaged about 36,000 metric tons of rice, much lower than the

damage done by drought. Brammer (1987, 21) claimed that the 1978-79 drought reduced rice production by an estimated two million tons. It directly affected about 42% of the cultivated land and 44% of the population (Ericksen et al. 1993, 5). Ahmed and Bernard (1989, 40) and Hossain (1990, 37) contend that during the 1973-87 period, crop losses to drought were almost as severe as the losses attributed to floods. About 2.18 million tons of rice were damaged due to drought in the above period. The corresponding flood loss was 2.38 million tons. Drought adversely affects all three rice varieties (aman, aus, and boro) grown in three different cropping seasons in Bangladesh. It also causes damage to jute, the country's main cash crop, and other crops such as pulses, potatoes, oilseeds, minor grains, winter vegetables, and sugarcane. Rice alone accounts for more than 80% of the total cultivated land of the country. Droughts in March-April prevent land preparation and plowing activities from being conducted on time. As a result, broadcast aman, aus, and jute cannot be sown on schedule. Droughts in May and June destroy broadcast aman, aus, and jute plants. Inadequate rains in August delay transplantation of aman in high land areas, while droughts in September and October reduce yield of both broadcast and transplanted aman and delay the sowing of pulses and potatoes. Boro, wheat, and other crops grown in the dry season are also periodically affected by drought. Fruit trees, such as jackfruit, litchi, and banana, often die during drought. But the loss of rice production is the most costly damage incurred by droughts in Bangladesh. The impact of drought spreads disproportionately amongst regions of Bangladesh. There is a popular impression in Bangladesh that the northwestern districts of Rajshahi, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Bogra, and Pabna are particularly drought-prone (Murshid 1987, 38). The northwestern districts are relatively dry, receiving only 50 inches of rainfall annually. The eastern districts, in contrast, receive more than 80 inches of rainfall. But drought can hit both drought-prone and nondroughtprone areas (see Murshid 1987, 38; Paul 1995) Bangladesh is affected by major country-wide droughts every five years. However, local droughts occur frequently and affect crop life cycles. The agricultural drought, related to soil moisture deficiency, occurs at various stages of crop growth. Monsoon failure often brings yield reduction and famine to the affected regions. A better understanding of the monsoon cycle is clearly of major scientific and social value. Northwestern regions are particularly vulnerable to droughts. A severe drought can cause more than 40 percent damage to broadcast aus. Each year, during the kharif season, drought causes significant damage to the t.aman crop in about 2.32 million ha. In the rabi season, 1.2 million ha of cropland face droughts of various magnitudes. Apart from loss to agriculture, droughts have significant effect on land degradation, livestock population, employment and health. Between 1960 and 1991, droughts occurred in Bangladesh 19 times. Very severe droughts hit the country in 1951, 1961, 1975, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994,

1995 and2000. Past droughts have typically affected about 47 percent of the country and 53 percent of the population.

Fig 4.1 Drought-prone areas of Bangladesh during rabi season

The associated decline in crop production, losses of assets and lower employment opportunities contributed to increased household food insecurity. Food consumption fell, along with household ability to meet food needs on a sustainable basis. Vegetables and many other pulses are in short supply during drought.

Water requirements for rice vary according to variety, but also soil type and season. Water needed for cultivating rice varies from 1000 to 1500 mm in heavy soils and from 1500 to 2000 mm in medium- to light-textured soil. The critical stages of the rice crop for water stress are tillering, panicle initiation, flowering and maturity are shown in the above figure.Adequate water needs to be maintained in the field during these stages. In the Barind tracts of Northwest Bangladesh, t.aman rice grown during monsoon and boro rice during rabi (winter) are prone to drought.

Figure : Stages of rice growth sensitive to droughts of different magnitudes Droughts cause major deterioration in household health because their subsequent impact of reducing food consumption leads to substantial increases in illnesses. Drought also leads to an increase in severe chronic energy deficiency among members of the agriculture work force.

4.1.6 Drought Management

Drought, as a natural disaster ones come suddenly like cyclones earthquakes and floods. It may fall upon the counfu in a localized way or pervade the whole country. The effect of drought is often far reaching and sometimes more detangling to the economy than that of floods. The droughrt of 1978-79 shook the Bangladesh, government and encouraged it to identify standing measures for drought management. The governments action followed through the formation of a national committee. A national drought management policy and programme was formulated in 1980 under the secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. The drought code prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture lap down the various actions that need to be taken to avert or fight drought .the steps envisage warning systems, and relief and rehabilitation. Both

immediate and short term measures are enunciated. long term measures, though not stated in the code, are being taken care of as the government is doing its best to extend irrigation facilities to all feasible areas. Forest and range lands are shrinking in Bangladesh at an alarming rate. The government has taken an afforestation programmed covering 435 upazilas under 61 administrative districts since 1987.The project aims to enrich depleted sal forests, create strip plantations along roads, highways, railways, embankments and feeder roads, create agro forestry plantation in encroached areas within Sal forests, and plantations on fallow lands outside the Water development Board's embankments. Top priority has been given for development of village homestead groves, and augmentation of the tree cover in villages and marginal lands. This programme will increase fuel wood, fodder and food, as homestead groves mostly consist of fruit bearing trees.

4.1.7 Main Mitigation Strategies

4.1.7.1 Drought monitoring It is continuous observation of rainfall situation, water availability in reservoirs, lakes, rivers and comparing with the existing water needs of various sectors of the society. 4.1.7.2 Water supply augmentation and conservation Water supply augmentation and conservation through rainwater harvesting in houses and farmers fields increases the content of water available. Water harvesting by either allowing the runoff water from all the fields to a common point (e.g. Farm ponds, see the picture) or allowing it to infiltrate into the soil where it has fallen (in situ) (e.g. contour bunds, contour cultivation, raised bed planting etc) helps increase water availability for sustained agricultural production. Expansion of irrigation facilities reduces the drought vulnerability. Land use based on its capability helps in optimum use of land and water and can avoid the undue demand created due to their misuse. 4.1.7.3 Livelihood planning Livelihood planning identifies those livelihoods which are least affected by the drought. Some of such livelihoods include increased off-farm employment opportunities, collection of non-timber forest produce from the community forests, raising goats, and carpentry etc. 4.1.7.4 Drought planning The basic goal of drought planning is to improve the effectiveness of preparedness and response efforts by enhancing monitoring, mitigation and response measures. Planning would help in effective coordination among state and national agencies in dealing with the drought.

Components of drought plan include establishing drought taskforce which is a team of specialists who can advise the government in taking decision to deal with drought situation, establishing coordination mechanism among various agencies which deal with the droughts, providing crop insurance schemes to the farmers to cope with the drought related crop losses, and public awareness generation.

4.1.7.5 Public awareness and education Educating the masses on various strategies you learned above would help in effective drought mitigation. This includes organizing drought information meetings for the public and media, implementing water conservation awareness programs in the mass media like television, Publishing and distributing pamphlets on water conservation techniques and agricultural drought Management strategies like crop contingency plans and rainwater harvesting and establishing drought information centers for easy access to the farmers.

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1 Conclusions
Drought is an insidious natural hazard that results from a departure of precipitation from expected or normal that, when extended over a season or longer period of time, is insufficient to meet the demands of human, plant and animal activities. In climatically the country belongs to sub tropical region where monsoon weather prevails throught the year.droghts are common in the northwestern districts of Bangladesh.droughts can also occur in areas that usually enjoy adequate rainfall and moisture levels.it causes greate loss in the crop production growth in our country.
Drought impacts mostly rained crops to start with and subsequently the irrigated crops. Areas with minimum of alternative water sources to rainfall (ground and canal water supplies), areas subjected to drastic environmental degradation such as denuded forest lands and altered ecosystems, and areas where livelihoods alternative to agriculture are least developed are most vulnerable to drought. The herdsman, landless laborers, subsistence farmers, the women, children, and farm animals are the most vulnerable groups affected by the drought conditions.

Other drought-related impacts include social impacts. Social impacts include health, public safety, conflicts between water users, and reduced quality of life. During droughts many people migrate to areas outside the drought-affected location. When this happens, the area loses a great deal of its population, and thus the area has less financial support. In the virtual absence of empirical research on drought in Bangladesh, the findings of the present study may provide useful information on the survival strategies used to combat drought at the individual and community levels. This information is crucial for planners, administrators, extension officials, and NGOs to improve responses to future drought occurrences and thus help to minimize resulting hardships. The conceptual framework developed to study drought mitigating techniques adopted by drought victims and the support they received from various

levels can provide important insights into how humans subject to different levels of vulnerability respond to an extreme natural event, like a drought.

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