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Metal Oxide Thin-Film Transistor Markets


Nano-527

Published April 2012 NanoMarkets, LC

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Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission of NanoMarkets, LC.

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1 E.1 Summary of Opportunities for Products Utilizing Metal Oxide TFTs ............................... 1 Page | i
E.1.1 Display Opportunities ..................................................................................................................................2 E.1.2 Other Opportunities ....................................................................................................................................2 E.1.3 Opportunities for Materials Firms ...............................................................................................................3

E.2 Firms to Watch in this Space ......................................................................................... 3 E.3 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Metal Oxide TFT Products .................................... 4 E.4 Concluding Remarks ..................................................................................................... 8 Chapter One: Introduction ..................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Background to this Report ............................................................................................ 9
1.1.1 The Silicon Landscape ................................................................................................................................11 1.1.2 Metal Oxide TFTs and How They Fit In ......................................................................................................12

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report ............................................................................ 15 1.3 Methodology of this Report ........................................................................................ 16 1.4 Plan of this Report ...................................................................................................... 16 Chapter Two: Oxide TFT Technology: Assessment and Roadmap .......................................... 17 2.1 Zinc Oxide-Based Materials ........................................................................................ 17
2.1.1 Indium Gallium Zinc Oxide (IGZO) ..............................................................................................................17 2.1.2 Indium Zinc Oxide (IZO) .............................................................................................................................18 2.1.3 Zinc Tin Oxide (ZTO) ...................................................................................................................................19 2.1.4 Hafnium Indium Zinc Oxide (HIZO) ............................................................................................................20 2.1.5 Aluminum Doped Zinc Oxide (AZO) ...........................................................................................................21

2.2 Potential for p-Type Oxide Semiconductors ................................................................ 21 2.3 Assessment of Oxide Development Programs at Leading Firms ................................... 22
2.3.1 AUO ............................................................................................................................................................23 2.3.2 CBRITE ........................................................................................................................................................24 2.3.3 HP ...............................................................................................................................................................25 2.3.4 LG Display ..................................................................................................................................................25 2.3.5 Samsung Electronics ..................................................................................................................................26

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2.3.6 Sharp ..........................................................................................................................................................27 2.3.7 Sony ...........................................................................................................................................................28 2.3.8 Toppan Printing Co. ...................................................................................................................................28 2.3.9 Toshiba.......................................................................................................................................................29

2.4 Assessment of Materials Suppliers for Metal Oxide Backplanes .................................. 29 Page | ii
2.4.1 Advanced Nano Products (ANP) ................................................................................................................29 2.4.2 JX Nippon Mining & Metals .......................................................................................................................29 2.4.3 Ulvac Materials ..........................................................................................................................................29

2.5 Evolution of Fabrication Technology for TFTs .............................................................. 30 2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 31 Chapter Three: Market Requirements and Opportunities for Oxide TFTs .............................. 33 3.1 What is the Future Role of Oxide TFTs in the LCD Market? .......................................... 33
3.1.1 The Competitive Environment and Importance of Device Types for TFTs in LCDs ...................................33 3.1.2 The Current State of the LCD Market ........................................................................................................36

3.2 Oxide TFTs and OLEDs ................................................................................................ 37


3.2.1 Mobile Displays ..........................................................................................................................................38 3.2.2 OLED TVs (Large-Area Applications) ..........................................................................................................42

3.3 E-Paper ...................................................................................................................... 45 3.4 Potential Future Markets for Oxide TFTs ..................................................................... 46
3.4.1 Flexible Displays .........................................................................................................................................46 3.4.2 Transparent Electronics .............................................................................................................................47 3.4.3 Sensors and RFID .......................................................................................................................................47 3.4.4 Memory .....................................................................................................................................................48

3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 48 Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for Oxide TFTs................................................................ 50 4.1 Forecasting Methodology ........................................................................................... 50 4.2 Forecasts by Application ............................................................................................. 52
4.2.1 LCD (and AMOLED) Tablet Displays ...........................................................................................................53 4.2.2 Flat-Panel TV Displays ................................................................................................................................56 4.2.3 Smartphone Displays .................................................................................................................................60 4.2.4 Personal Computer Displays ......................................................................................................................64

4.3 Forecast by Oxide Type............................................................................................... 68

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4.4 Summary Forecast ...................................................................................................... 72 Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report ............................................................. 75 About the Author ............................................................................................................. 75 Page | iii

List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Firms to Watch in the Metal Oxide TFT Space ............................................................................................4 Exhibit E-2: Summary of Revenue for Metal Oxide TFT Backplanes ..............................................................................6 Exhibit E-3: Summary of Shipments of Metal Oxide Area Shipped ...............................................................................7 Exhibit 4-1: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD Tablet Market Segment .............................................................................53 Exhibit 4-2: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED Tablet Market Segment .....................................................................55 Exhibit 4-3: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD TV Market Segment ...................................................................................57 Exhibit 4-4: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED TV Market Segment ...........................................................................59 Exhibit 4-5: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD Smartphone Market Segment ....................................................................61 Exhibit 4-6: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED Smartphone Market Segment............................................................63 Exhibit 4-7: Oxide Backplanes in the LCD Personal Computer Market Segment.........................................................65 Exhibit 4-8: Oxide Backplanes in the AMOLED Personal Computer Market Segment ................................................67 Exhibit 4-9: Oxide Backplanes: Market Summary by Type ..........................................................................................69 Exhibit 4-10: Summary of Revenue for Metal Oxide TFT Backplanes ..........................................................................72 Exhibit 4-11: Summary of Shipments of Metal Oxide Area Shipped ...........................................................................73

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Executive Summary
E.1 Summary of Opportunities for Products Utilizing Metal Oxide TFTs

The flat-panel display has become ubiquitous in consumer electronics products, and is a very Page | 1 important part of the user experience in most applications. Continually improving the performance of these displays has become a competitive driving force that brings new technology to the market. Metal oxide thin-film transistor backplanes are in a position to offer performance improvements to the display industry at a reasonable cost, and hence are in a position to take advantage of a genuine market opportunity. Amorphous silicon (a-silicon) is the current industry standard with regard to backplane technology in the display industry, but it is performance-limited from a materials point of view. Higher resolution, higher display refresh rates and lower power consumption are just some of the important directions that the flat-panel display industry is going in, and a-silicon will not be able to meet the industry needs in these areas. Metal oxide backplanes, however, offer all of those benefits to the flat-panel display industry, and do it at a reasonable cost, and with scalable manufacturing processes. Hence, they are ideally poised to take the display industry in to the future. The rapid growth of handheld device markets like smartphones and tablets has spurred the development of high mobility backplanes, as manufacturers for these mobile applications attempt to provide their users with the best possible visual experience. Additionally, the fact that the flat-panel TV industry is always looking for ways to improve its visual experience has provided amorphous oxide backplanes with opportunities in high growth and high volume markets. The market forces that are the most important in positively impacting the adoption of metal oxide backplanes in the market include the following: a-Silicon has reached the limits of its potential as a backplane material from a materials point of view. Hence, display manufacturers see the need for alternative high mobility backplane materials. Unlike its direct competitorlow temperature poly-silicon (LTPS)the metal oxide backplane provides significant performance improvements at a reasonable cost.

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Additionally, it is manufactured using a process that is scalable and requires significantly lower capital expenditure from an equipment point of view. The recent push for active-matrix organic LED (AMOLED)-based flat-panel displays in various segments of the consumer electronics market (smartphones, TVs, tablets) has Page | 2 spurred the development of high mobility backplane materials, because OLEDs cannot be driven by a-silicon, due to its limited electrical characteristics.
E.1.1 Display Opportunities

The display opportunities that present themselves can be broken up into two main branches: LCD and AMOLED. Within these two branches, the market is easily further segmented into applications based on display: small (smartphones), medium (tablets), and large (TVs and personal computers). From a competitive point of view, metal oxide backplanes offer improved performance at a reasonable cost, and with the potential for large-area manufacturing. It is the cost and manufacturing advantage over LTPS that provide an insight into the market segments that will be the most important to metal oxide backplanes going forward. The tablet market segment is a fast growing segment that places a high priority on display performance. High mobility backplanes have the potential to make a strong impact in this market, and it is here that metal oxides are expected to see significant market penetration over the course of this forecast period due to the value propositions that they provide. The competitive advantage that metal oxide backplanes have over LTPS with regard to large area displays is due to the scalable manufacturing process involved in producing them. This scalability makes them the ideal high mobility backplane for the flat-panel TV market, and indeed, their development has been pioneered by companies like Sharp, LG Display and Samsung. Metal oxide backplanes have a very real revenue opportunity in both LCD and AMOLED TV displays. AMOLED TVs that are expected to enter the market in earnest over the course of this forecast period require a high mobility backplane material that can be manufactured in a cost efficient manner. Metal oxide backplanes are ideally suited to meet these requirements.
E.1.2 Other Opportunities

Metal oxide materials are transparent semiconductor materials with high mobility, and these characteristics allow them to be used in both the integrated circuit that drives the backplane, as well as the backplane transistor itself. Additionally, metal oxide materials can potentially be
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manufactured using solution-based, roll-to roll-printing methods. This combination of benefits will potentially open up new revenue opportunities for metal oxide backplane materials. Roll-to-roll manufacturing methods enable the use of metal oxide materials in flexible electronics. The low temperature manufacturing process allows these materials to be Page | 3 deposited on flexible substrates. The high mobility and transparent nature of metal oxide semiconductors opens up the transparent electronics market segment. The potential to be used in transparent logic circuits could lead to the development of a suite of new devices, and metal oxide materials can provide the characteristics necessary to make it happen. Solution-processed metal oxide manufacturing would be lower cost than the deposition of metal oxide materials. This cost advantage could enable their use in the inexpensive manufacture of intelligent sensors and RFID tags.
E.1.3 Opportunities for Materials Firms

The recent interest in metal oxide TFT backplanes has spurred the market for companies that can supply amorphous metal oxide materials. Because the metal oxide production process is a deposition process, there will be a high demand for high quality metal oxide sputtering targets that can be used in the latest generation sputtering systems. The firms to keep an eye on in this space currently are Advanced Nano Products, JX Nippon Mining & Metals and Ulvac Materials, although more companies are expected to enter the space due to the recent increase in demand for metal oxide materials. The focus of the industry is on indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO) from the commercial point of view, and companies manufacturing sputtering targets for IGZO are expected to become much more prevalent over the course of this forecast period.
E.2 Firms to Watch in this Space

There are multiple firms that have undertaken the development of production lines to accommodate metal oxide backplane technology. These are primarily the large players in the flat-panel display industry, and the fact that these companies are behind the production of metal oxide backplanes is a sign of the potential of this technology. The firms to watch in this space are summarized in Exhibit E-1.

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Exhibit E-1: Firms to Watch in the Metal Oxide TFT Space Company Metal Oxide TFT Production Activity AUO AUO has the potential to begin volume production of oxide TFTs by 2013. This technology will play a big role in AUO's recent entry into the AMOLED market with a suite of products. CBRITE CBRITE is pioneering non-IGZO-based oxide TFT backplanes. Since CBRITE is a small, early stage company, the timeline for its product to reach the market is dependent on its ability to form strategic partnerships that can commercialize its technology. LG Display LG is likely to see revenues from products with metal oxide backplanes as early as late 2012 or early 2013. It is expected to get large area AMOLED-based TVs into the market, and metal oxide backplanes are an important strategic move in this direction. Samsung Samsung has shown interest in metal oxide technology, as evidenced by prototype products. It is expected to come to the market with metal oxide backplanes toward the end of 2013. Sharp Sharp has pioneered the commercialization of IGZO, and is the most committed to getting IGZO backplanes into its display products. It is expected to convert a state-of-the-art fab to manufacture IGZO backplanes, and is rumored to have a strategic partnership with Apple to manufacture IGZO-based displays for Apple's iPad.
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E.3 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Metal Oxide TFT Products

Exhibit E-2 summarizes the eight-year forecasts for metal oxide backplanes in the flat-panel display industry. NanoMarkets expects this market to be valued at $3.8 billion by the end of the forecast period. The predicted market growth is driven by the need of the flat-panel display industry for high mobility backplanes. Backplanes capable of enabling higher resolution, lower power consumption and higher driving currents (specifically for AMOLEDs), all at a reasonable cost, are what the industry requires at present, and metal oxide backplanes are poised to provide this capability. However, metal oxide backplanes will directly compete with LTPS as a high mobility backplane material. These two technologies will be competing in the marketplace along the following dimensions: Electrical characteristics and performanceLTPS has the upper hand in this regard with higher mobility figures, although there are questions about the stability of the film in larger areas.

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Ease of productionThe scalability of the LTPS production processes is severely limited when compared to the production of metal oxide backplanes. Cost of productionThe laser annealing process used in LTPS production is significantly more costly than the sputtering process used to deposit oxide backplanes. Additionally, Page | 5 the capital expenditure required for the production equipment needed for LTPS manufacturing is significantly higher than that required for metal oxide backplanes.

LTPS is dominant in the smartphone market segment, having been in the market for longer. Metal oxide backplanes are better-suited for the large area display market segments, and the cost-effective production process is expected to make them strongly competitive in the smartphone and small-area segment as well. Therefore, the smartphone and TV markets are expected to be significant revenue generators for metal oxide backplanes in the early portion of the forecast period, with the tablet market segment showing the best potential for rapid growth. Metal oxide TFTs will also see significant penetration in the AMOLED market over the course of this forecast period, specifically in the medium and large display area sectors. However, the unit sales of AMOLED displays in the tablet, personal computer and TV space are tempered by the fact that the AMOLED display is itself an emerging technology in these market segments. The LCD market will see much lower penetration numbers than the AMOLED market, but the size of the market means that this penetration still translates to significant revenues. The penetration of oxide backplanes in the LCD market is expected to occur at a steady rate, with oxide backplanes seeing significant market share towards the end of the forecast period. aSilicon is entrenched as a backplane technology, and as such there is significant inertia against replacing it, and so new technology is not expected to penetrate extremely rapidly.

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Total Oxide Material Shipped


45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2012 NanoMarkets, LC 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

E.4 Concluding Remarks

NanoMarkets believes that high mobility backplanes have a very important role to play in the display industry. Metal oxide backplanes will be competing with LTPS in this space, while attempting to replace a-silicon as the industry standard backplane material. Metal oxide materials compete primarily on the ease and relative cost effectiveness of their manufacturing process while providing significant improvements over a-silicon. Amorphous metal oxide backplanes will become a strong commercial technology over the course of this forecast period, and the reasons for this have been explored in this report. The oxide TFT is a technology that offers value propositions that satisfy the needs of the display industry across various market segments, and is a very real commercial opportunity going forward.

Millions Sq. M

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Chapter One: Introduction


1.1 Background to this Report

Metal oxide thin-film transistors (TFTs) are poised to capture a very real revenue opportunity in Page | 9 the display industry. Amorphous metal oxide materials have the potential to be used in the backplane of flat-panel displays as an alternative to amorphous silicon (a-silicon), which is currently the industry standard. a-Silicon is limited in its performance as a backplane material, and its newer, high-performance alternative, low temperature polysilicon (LTPS) is extremely expensive to produce. Metal oxide materials offer better performance than a-silicon, and are cheaper to manufacture than LTPS, which is in good alignment with the needs of the display industry going forward. The importance of addressing each picture element (each unit of which is called a pixel) in a flat-panel display containing well over a million pixels is a task that is accomplished by either a passive or active matrix in the backplane of the display. This act of addressing is what renders the image on the screen from the electronic input. LCD technology has dominated the market in the recent past in high-resolution, fast-refreshing large display applications such as laptops and TVs. The addressing of pixels in LCDs has typically been achieved using what is known as an "active matrix" of thin-film transistors fabricated, most commonly, out of amorphous silicon. It has, however, been known for some time now that a-silicon isn't the ideal material for thin film transistor backplanes. Even so, they have met the requirements of the display industry that is currently dominated by LCD technology. But LCD display makers have come to the realization that a-silicon is really a stagnant technology. It has reached the upper limits of process and morphological improvement that engineering of the production processes can provide, and is now really limited by the properties of a-silicon itself. Displays for the next decade are either going to be LCD-based or organic light emitting diode (OLED)-based for the most part. Next-generation LCD displays are not going to have their performance needs satisfied by a-silicon; it quite simply doesn't have the potential to meet the improved resolution requirements, higher refresh rates, and lower power goals of nextgeneration LCD displays. It is also incapable of satisfying the requirements of large-area OLED displays. It will eventually come to the point where a-silicon will potentially become a limiting factor with regard to improving the performance of next-generation displays unless a novel backplane material is introduced. NanoMarkets believes that there is room for a technological

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improvement at a fundamental level. Hence, there is a very real revenue opportunity for companies seeking to bring newer backplane technologies to the market. Amorphous transparent metal oxide based TFTs have the requisite materials properties to satisfy the needs of next-generation displays, as will be evidenced later in this report. It's very Page | 10 realistic that metal oxide TFTs will, in fact, be a suitable replacement for a-silicon. There are some obstacles that need to be overcome with regard to device stability in large area and large volume production, but the development of these materials is being backed in a large way by multiple companies. The display industry is rapidly expanding with regard to the number of consumer electronics devices on the market. The tablet and smartphone segments have added a new dimension to the market, allowing OLED displays to make an entrance in smaller area applications (they have, until very recently, been found unsuitable for large-area displays). There are also flexible displays in the works at a few companies, as well as electrophoretic ink-based displays that have been present in the market for some time now. This suite of commercialized devices allows for a targeted segmentation approach by a new technology entering the market. Certain companies are pioneering metal oxide TFTs for largearea LCD and OLED display applications, while others are planning on targeting the tablet display market. Strategies behind these decisions revolve around production capability, the substrate area capable of being handled by the manufacturing facilities, and where companies believe they can see the highest revenue opportunity for their amorphous oxide backplanes. Segmentation in a relatively mature market is essential in meeting customer demands and positioning the product so as to maximize revenue. New, high growth segments (smartphones, tablets, notebooks) in the consumer electronics device market have led to a large increase in the potential revenue to be captured by display makers. With these high-growth segments, however, comes increased consumer expectations from the point of view of visual quality and performance in displays, and the need to meet these expectations is why bringing new technology to the market is crucial. NanoMarkets believes that the industry is on the brink of an overhaul with regard to its backplane technology. It is not really a question of if a-silicon will be replaced, but rather, when. At its present stage of development, amorphous metal oxide backplane technology, with the properties it displays from a performance point of view, is the most realistic replacement.

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1.1.1 The Silicon Landscape

a-Silicon has, for a long time, been the material of choice for use in the transistors for display backplanes. There are various reasons why, but it is also readily apparent that there is room for improvement, and changes in the morphology of silicon itself have led to performance improvements that could prove to usurp a-silicon. The base material is still silicon however, and Page | 11 it appears that silicon has really made itself indivisible from the backplane transistor. a-Silicon provides adequate performance for large-scale display applications in terms of its electronic performance. The key word in the above sentence is adequate, but it definitely has limitations: The mobility of amorphous silicon is a few orders of magnitude less than that of crystalline silicon, yet it has managed to become the material of choice for the active matrix of thin-film transistors in displays. The low mobility of a-silicon, a fundamental materials property, is coupled with a loss of real estate on the backplane, because the size of each transistor is forced to be relatively large, leading to a larger pixel, and hence lower screen resolution. a-Silicon requires an external driver circuit to manipulate the transistors at each pixel, and this driving circuit can't be made out of a-silicon due to its low mobility. The external circuit is an added production step, and is a potential target for cost savings if it can be incorporated into the TFT active matrix fabrication process.

a-Silicon is still favored because of its low temperature, relatively inexpensive production process compared to better-performing materials. Additionally, the production process allows for relatively simple scalability to large areas, which has led to the general adoption of a-silicon in large-area electronics applications. An important question is whether a-silicon has the potential to continue its dominance in these applications. It beats competitors on cost, but one wonders when the value of added performance will prove itself worth the additional cost for switching materials. Development efforts have been specifically targeted at low temperature poly-silicon (LTPS) as a thin-film transistor material for displays. Its benefits include: A significantly higher mobility than a-silicon; Smaller grain sizes, leading to smaller transistors, smaller pixels and higher resolution; The ability to integrate driver circuits onto the glass substrate, significantly reducing the number of connections on the substrate and improving durability; and Lower power consumption than a-silicon.

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LTPS does have certain problems, though. It is usually manufactured by a process that depends on laser annealing, which is an expensive fabrication method with questionable scalability compared to the relatively standard lithographic manufacturing of a-silicon. This issue is a strong inhibitor to the adoption of poly-silicon in large area display applications, and so far this Page | 12 technology has made limited inroads, and mostly in devices with small displays. Small display applications have grown strongly as a revenue stream with the advent of smart phones and tablets. And this market segment has actually made it possible for higherperforming materials like poly-silicon to see applicability in the market. At the very least, small area displays provide an avenue for market entry while development efforts continue to address the scalability of the production process for large-area displays. The recent advances in OLED displays have also spurred the development of LTPS for display applications. LTPS has the potential to really push the large scale adoption of OLED devices, the highest volumes of which are used in small area displays. The competitive landscape between OLED and LCD displays over the forecast period could lead to interesting backlashes in the backplane sector as well. Currently, OLEDs have not been able to penetrate the large-area display market, primarily due to high production costs. However, organic displays are experiencing extremely rapid increases in adoption in the smartphone market. The emerging adoption of LTPS in response to superior performance demands in the small area display segment could lead to the displacement of a-silicon as the dominant force in smaller device backplanes. LCDs currently dominate the large-area display market, and a-silicon is the industry standard backplane technology in this segment. It is cheap and its performance meets the device requirements, but how long will this last? Going one step further than that, in an application entirely dominated by variations on silicon thin films, is there room for revolutionary material substitutes to squeeze out a position in the short term, and perhaps expand it to a reasonable market share in the long run? This report aims to shed some light on the answer to that question, specifically with regard to the potential of thin film metal oxides in this market.
1.1.2 Metal Oxide TFTs and How They Fit In

The fact is that metal oxide thin-film transistors have the very real potential to be a disruptive technology in this market. This potential stems from the fact that they, in a sense, combine the best of both the a-silicon and LTPS worlds. They offer:
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A mobility higher than a-silicon, though lower than LTPS; Low temperature fabrication, coupled with the potential for relatively cheap large scale production, which LTPS does not offer (yet); Smaller pixel sizes than a-silicon, and hence higher resolution displays; and A larger aperture ratio compared to a-silicon per pixel, allowing for higher transmission through the backplane. This feature could be used to reduce the power of the backlight, or to increase brightness as per the device requirements. Page | 13

Metal oxide thin films are potentially a competitive force to be reckoned with in this space, and have garnered the commercial interests of multiple companies looking to capitalize on these advantages. These firms will be elaborated on more in the following chapters in this report, but both big names in the display space such as Sharp, as well as smaller companies like CBrite Inc., are hoping to really capitalize on the potential of thin-film metal oxide transistors to gain traction in the display market. Metal oxides have the potential to simultaneously impact both large and small area displays, and offer a cost effective replacement for a-silicon. Improvements in fabrication processes and the shift to truly large volume manufacturing will lower costs for metal oxides, easing their entry into the laptop and television market. Companies like Sharp and LG Display are already pushing metal oxide TFT backplanes for largearea applications, and the relative simplicity and scalability of the production process for metal oxide TFTs is a strong enabling factor for the technology. Oxide TFT technology is largely compatible with existing production lines in use for LCD displays, reducing the capital expenditure for panel makers. The production of large-scale OLED displays will allow companies to leverage this factor, since they can modify existing LCD production lines for the shift to oxide TFTs. Large scale OLED displays are going into production soon, and oxide TFTs will be a very important factor in ensuring that they are cost-competitive with LCD displays. The production of large scale active-matrix OLEDs (AMOLEDs) and oxide TFTs will go hand-in-hand as they push forth into the large area display marketplace. Metal oxides will offer strong competition to LTPS, since both of these materials are ideally suited for OLED displays. The explosive growth of the smartphone and tablet markets using active-matrix OLEDs is the market driver most strongly pushing the development and
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commercialization of these materials in this market segment. The high resolution and increased transmission through the backplane of both of these technologies are key requirements for small area displays. From purely a performance point of view, LTPS actually is superior to metal oxide TFTs at their Page | 14 current state-of-the-art. However the high costs associated with LTPS might prove to be a technology killer going forward. This high-cost position of LTPS will allow metal oxide TFTs to be used in a significant portion of the applications that LTPS would have been attempting to capture going forward. So while LTPS may have the edge in the near term, metal oxide TFTs could really pose a serious threat to its continued use. The focus paid to silicon so far in this report is intended to provide a view of the competitive landscape that metal oxide TFTs face as they enter the market. The devices they are used in (and hence display size) will end up segmenting the market for metal oxide TFTs in a way that allows the technology to leverage its strengths. The market has effectively done the same thing for silicon, with a-silicon dominating the large are display formats, and LTPS making an impact in smaller area displays and emerging OLED displays. Metal oxide TFTs will need to position themselves slightly differently in each of these markets, and do offer the potential for capturing significant revenue from each segment. The success of metal oxide TFTs coming off of large volume production lines is yet to be evaluated. Performance and quality control in manufacturing situations can be challenging in a material that inherently has been shown to have inferior electrical stability (with regard to the transistor threshold voltage) than a-silicon. The most important questions that will affect the adoption of metal oxide TFTs as their output is increased over the next one to three years: Cost effectiveness of the production process. Will the expected minimal overhaul of the existing LCD backplane production lines be a low capital expenditure move while still providing high product quality? What is the true lifetime of the metal oxide backplane, and will electrical stability prove to be a problem with use? Can the uniformity of the metal oxide thin film be improved and made comparable to asilicon, particularly in large scale displays? What are the scalability limits of the film?

Metal oxide TFTs should really be aiming at becoming the industry standard technology for display backplanes over the next decade. In the current industry environment, the technologies

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competing with metal oxide TFTs are really LTPS, from the point of view of performance, and asilicon, simply because it is the current industry standard; there are no other emerging technologies on the horizon that are far enough along in their development at this point to really present a challenge to metal oxides. Additionally, LTPS is expensive for large-area manufacturing, and this fact is a prime example of where performance alone doesn't guarantee success in the marketplace. Metal oxide TFTs are much better-suited to the industry needs from the overall point of view of cost, performance, manufacturability, and scalability.
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report

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The objective of this report is to highlight the business revenue opportunities for metal oxide TFT backplane materials in the various market segments of the display industry. This goal is achieved through an analysis of the evolution of the display market and its expected future directions. With regard to forecasting, more attention has been paid to the opportunities for the metal oxide films that are likely to see commercialization over the course of this forecast period, such as indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO). The range of possible material compositions available to fabricate transparent metal oxide thin films is vast, and hence the ones that are being focused on actively by companies in the industry are similarly highlighted here. The other oxide materials that might have a role to play in the industry further on down the road have been mentioned. These include aluminum zinc oxide, indium zinc oxide, zinc tin oxide, hafnium indium zinc oxide and p-type amorphous oxides. However, their role as backplane materials is not strongly emphasized from a commercial point of view by the display industry, and they have been treated as such here. The value propositions of the amorphous metal oxides discussed in this report are then analyzed from the point of view of the needs of the display market, and their potential for generating revenue is discussed. This report also provides detailed market forecasts for metal oxide TFT backplanes in the display industry. The market forecasts are presented by the main types of backplane materials, as well as by the key market segments that metal oxide TFT backplanes will cater to. The forecasts consist of annual revenue figures for panels using these materials, as well as the area of backplane material used, over an eight-year period. The numbers have been arrived at based on analyzing the state of the display industry and the various competitive forces at play within it.

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In addition, this report is international in scope. We have not been geographically selective in the firms covered or interviewed for the purposes of compiling this report.
1.3 Methodology of this Report

The information for this report is derived from a variety of sources, primarily from Page | 16 NanoMarkets' interview program of technologists, business development managers and academics associated with this field. An extensive search of the technical literature and relevant company Web sites was also conducted. Additionally, previous reports from NanoMarkets that bear relevance to the subject have been consulted, including the following: Markets for OLED Materials 2011, Emerging Markets for Non-ITO Transparent Conductive Oxides 2011, and Zinc Oxide Markets 2010 and Beyond. The forecasting method used in this report is explained in detail in Chapter Four, but the fundamental approach is to identify the key driving forces for the adoption of metal oxide technology over the course of the forecasting period, and use these drivers as the basis for our predictions. The driving forces within each display application are then evaluated to judge the level of market penetration that metal oxide TFTs are likely to achieve in the various segments in the display space.
1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two will discuss the present technology roadmap for metal oxide TFTs, as well as provide an assessment of the developmental progress of this technology at various firms. Chapter Three will then go on to investigate the market requirements that are expected to drive the adoption of oxide TFTs, and how these requirements will translate to revenue opportunities. Finally, Chapter Four will go over our eight-year forecasts for metal oxide TFTs, both from the point of view of the material type, as well as the applications that present themselves.

NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-270-1718 | FAX: 804-360-7259

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