Big impact of climate change on India's farm yields

May 20, 2009: The report, one of the first of its kind in South Asia, finds that climate change will have a serious impact on India where about 1/3 of the land is already drought or flood prone. Looking at two drought prone regions in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, and one flood prone region in Orissa, the report finds that climate change can have the following serious impacts:

In Andhra Pradesh, dryland farmers may see their incomes plunge by 20%. In Maharashtra, sugarcane yields may fall dramatically by 25-30%. In Orissa, flooding will rise dramatically leading to a drop in rice yields by as much as 12% in some districts. Other climate hotspots in India such as the fragile Himalayas, the biodiverse Western Ghats, the vast coastal areas, and the prolific agricultural lands of the Gangetic plains will need to be looked at in subsequent studies.

Findings
Dry regions - Andhra Pradesh In the arid regions of Andhra Pradesh, the yields of all the major crops rice, groundnut, and jowar are expected to decline, although groundnut is expected to fare better than others. Under a modest to harsh climate change scenario - a substantial rise in temperatures (2.3 C 3.4 C) and a modest but erratic increase in rainfall (4% to 8%) - small farmer incomes could decline by as much as 20%. Agriculture as it is practiced today will no longer be able to sustain large populations on small rainfed farms. Dry regions - Maharashtra The drought-prone belt in Maharashtra offers a striking contrast. Climate projections indicate a significant though variable increase in rainfall (20% to 30%) along with higher temperatures (2.4 C to 3.8 C). As a result, yields of several dryland crops will rise, including millets such as jowar and bajra, boosting the incomes of small rain-fed farmers by about 8-10%. Yields of sugarcane, however, which is generously subsidized and widely grown on irrigated farms in arid regions, are expected to decline considerably - by nearly 30 %. Encouraging a shift from sugarcane to less water-intensive crops will shield farmers from the impacts of climate change and help conserve fast-depleting groundwater. Flood prone regions - Orissa Over the past fifty years, Indias flood affected areas have more than doubled, from about 5% to about 12%, despite generous and rising government spending on flood protection programs. In Orissa, climate projections suggest that there will be a further dramatic rise in flooding, especially in the already flood-prone coastal regions.

Recommendations
Action is needed now to avoid higher costs in future. Given Indias immense geographic diversity, exact policies and interventions will need to be tailored to local conditions. Fortunately, many of Indias initiatives are moving in the right direction. The actions and policies proposed below will also promote development here and now:

Drought-prone areas
Better water management Regulating the unrestrained competition for groundwater and aggressive pursuit of water

conservation will be needed. Promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices and cropping patterns While much research is being conducted for rice, horticulture, and other crops, farmers will need greater support with knowledge and policy assistance to make the transition to sustainable dryland farming on a large scale. They could also diversify into agro-forestry which is more resilient, as well as livestock production. Using smart subsidies to encourage a shift to more environmentally suited crops Current subsidies and incentives implicitly encourage farmers to cultivate water-intensive crops such as sugarcane - in dry regions. Smart subsidies can encourage a shift to dryland crops that are more suited to local conditions and less environmentally degrading. Diversifying incomes Drought leads to farmer indebtedness. Coupling debt relief with micro-credit to start new businesses, or insurance to cover initial business risks, can encourage a change of occupation, limiting exposure to climate related risks. Imparting education and skills, building roads and developing markets are critical to building climate resilience in the long term.

Flood prone areas

Making agriculture flood-resilient and adapting livelihoods Continued research into more rainfall tolerant and shorter duration crops could increase flood resilience. Numerous pilots are helping to promote flood-based livelihoods in Orissa: aquaculture holds considerable potential if the supply chain and marketing are improved. Promoting land use planning and zoning Given rapid population growth and the increasing scarcity of land, more careful land use planning and flood zoning is a must. This needs to be undertaken together with water management, and requires better coordination between the various departments of government. Strengthening systems to detect and forecast floods Effectiveness can be enhanced if flood management systems combine data collection, telemetry, flood forecasting, and flood warning into one flood management and information system for a river basin. Greater knowledge about changing water flows and rainfall patterns will help in the design and location of vital irrigation as well as flood protection infrastructure.